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Climate change: The huge opinion gap in the US – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815

    Was it James II/VII who was described as the "wisest fool in Christendom"? Or was it another king?
    It was James I.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Interesting factoid: the UK has has a female head of state for more than half the time that the USA has been in existence, during which time they have had none.
    And the average monarch (by median, mode or mean) is?
  • Cookie said:

    I think that's a sign of intelligence, but far from the only one.
    My father-in-law is one of the cleverest people I know. He is a professor. However, he is clever in a very niche field and his ability to communicate anything complex to anyone not already at A level maths/physics level is almost nonexistent, to the frustration of my wife when she was a teenager struggling with algebra.
    He is also very clever in one thing and one thing only and sees no need to be clever about anything else - managing to put a new duvet on, finding your way around your home town, managing to feed yourself a nutritious meal... In most practical respects he is almost wholly dependent on my mother-in-law.

    Nonetheless, at our wedding, he delivered by far the best and funniest father of the bride's speech I have ever heard.
    There is an awful lot of Physics which is very simple as long as you can understand the maths, but trying to describe it in words ends up confusing everybody. It is a bit like music: if you know the notation a piece of music makes perfect sense but trying to describe it clearly to someone just using words (particularly if they don't even know the names of the notes) would be very frustrating.
  • Leon said:

    Clever. Properly clever. Shrewd, quick, witty, well informed, cunning, learned, strategic.

    What he isn't is an "intellectual" in the French tradition: a deep thinker who has profound new insights. I guess that's what people mean when they stubbornly say he isn't "clever"

    But "intellectual" is just one narrow type of intelligence, and it is often ineffective and sometimes downright dangerous
    I don't simply mean that he isn't an intellectual - and in fact I don't really have an opinion on that question. What I mean is that he is incapable of things like quantitative analysis, sustaining a complex argument, or boiling down complicated ideas into terms that can be communicated easily.
    What he is good at is humour, an arresting turn of phrase, and lying. For what it's worth, I think he is far more dangerous than any intellectual.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Cookie said:

    It was James I.
    James II was never king - he was Charlie II's brother wasn't he?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I've read your posts on this, including the blog you linked to.

    It looks very dodgy to me. But surely, if what you've posted/I've read is totally accurate, the judge would have directed the jury that the evidence for murder is just too thin to convict? I feel as if there is something missing, though obviously I don't know what.
    I agree

    There was one odd comment that attracted my attention. His first appeal failed because “he was unable to provide any new DNA evidence”. What does that mean?
  • Cookie said:

    It was James I.
    Thanks.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Leon said:

    The Off Topic button should just be removed from PB.com

    The whole joy of this site is that we veer off-topic all the time, and at every opportunity
    So much so that it often comes as a shock to see on-topic posts...
  • Charles said:

    And the average monarch (by median, mode or mean) is?
    Probably a butterfly...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    Cookie said:

    I think that's a sign of intelligence, but far from the only one.
    My father-in-law is one of the cleverest people I know. He is a professor. However, he is clever in a very niche field and his ability to communicate anything complex to anyone not already at A level maths/physics level is almost nonexistent, to the frustration of my wife when she was a teenager struggling with algebra.
    He is also very clever in one thing and one thing only and sees no need to be clever about anything else - managing to put a new duvet on, finding your way around your home town, managing to feed yourself a nutritious meal... In most practical respects he is almost wholly dependent on my mother-in-law.

    Nonetheless, at our wedding, he delivered by far the best and funniest father of the bride's speech I have ever heard.
    Something he thought was important, which he put his mind to and prepared for.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    In the interview I saw he was referencing "open door immigration" in Rome's fall. Free movement. So, yes, now we've tightened up on that, we can return to our Glory Days. Oh dear.

    In general, what I hate is this patina of cod "ancient learning" he sprays about. Guess some like it, find it illuminating or impressive, but I'm totally Shania Twain about it - and him.
    That don’t impress me much?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    Leon said:

    Clever. Properly clever. Shrewd, quick, witty, well informed, cunning, learned, strategic.

    What he isn't is an "intellectual" in the French tradition: a deep thinker who has profound new insights. I guess that's what people mean when they stubbornly say he isn't "clever"

    But "intellectual" is just one narrow type of intelligence, and it is often ineffective and sometimes downright dangerous
    A friend who worked with him at the FCO found that he didn't read his briefs, and spouted bullshit that was easily seen through. Often diplomats are quite good at Latin!

    I don't think him capable of original thought.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782

    I don't simply mean that he isn't an intellectual - and in fact I don't really have an opinion on that question. What I mean is that he is incapable of things like quantitative analysis, sustaining a complex argument, or boiling down complicated ideas into terms that can be communicated easily.
    What he is good at is humour, an arresting turn of phrase, and lying. For what it's worth, I think he is far more dangerous than any intellectual.
    It must be very annoying for lefties, that they keep getting whacked by this guy who is apparently as thick as a breeze-block

    Alternatively, you lot - and many others - consistently under-estimate him, hence his sustained and remarkable success. Has it not occurred to you that Boris acts the clown for this very reason?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    D P McBride?

    That initial makes him sound both unbiased and trustworthy!
    Almost as magisterial as AJP Taylor
  • JBriskin3 said:

    James II was never king - he was Charlie II's brother wasn't he?
    From 1685 to 1688. His brother had no legitimate children (although half the nobility of England is decended from his illegitimate offspring). He was deposed for being a bit too Catholic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited November 2021
    Lanka in trouble now

    Skilful catch
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    From 1685 to 1688. His brother had no legitimate children (although half the nobility of England is decended from his illegitimate offspring). He was deposed for being a bit too Catholic.
    Thanks for the correction - I'm pro Glorious Revolution so I should have known that already.
  • Foxy said:

    I think that the best sign of intelligence is the ability to explain things in a jargon free manner that could be understood by a normal 12 year old.
    There are some top intellects that can teach and explain brilliantly (Brian Greene, Richard Fenyman) whilst other can't. Probably the majority of good teachers are those who have a command of a subject but who struggled a bit so that they empathise with the pupils.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,866
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    It must be very annoying for lefties, that they keep getting whacked by this guy who is apparently as thick as a breeze-block

    Alternatively, you lot - and many others - consistently under-estimate him, hence his sustained and remarkable success. Has it not occurred to you that Boris acts the clown for this very reason?
    I've said it before, Boris is up there with tier one PM's like Blair and Thatcher.

    Clearly he is a political giant in a way tier two PMs like Cameron and Major weren't and tier three PMs like Brown and May could only dream of.

    That doesn't necessarily mean he's actually any good at governing of course...
  • JBriskin3 said:

    Thanks for the correction - I'm pro Glorious Revolution so I should have known that already.
    I think there had to have been a James II in order for us to talk about James I; we don't call the previous Queen Victoria I and Good Queen Bess would have been known as just Elizabeth until 1952.

    Having said that, the Scottish element complicates things, so I could be talking complete rubbish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    GIN1138 said:

    I've said it before, Boris is clearly up there with tier one PM's like Blair and Thatcher.

    Clearly he is a political giant in a way tier two PMs like Cameron and Major weren't and tier three PMs like Brown and May could only dream of.

    That doesn't necessarily mean he's actually any good at governing of course...
    For sure. He is very clever at winning elections. Actually governing? - the jury is out
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Farooq said:

    That's bowler-hat talk, that.
    Don't really understand what you're trying to say. I just like the story - A Dutch invasion army comes across to save the island from Chatholicism.
  • There are some top intellects that can teach and explain brilliantly (Brian Greene, Richard Fenyman) whilst other can't. Probably the majority of good teachers are those who have a command of a subject but who struggled a bit so that they empathise with the pupils.
    It is also a skill that can be taught rather than something innate.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815

    Something he thought was important, which he put his mind to and prepared for.
    He did. It was brilliant. Long, long diversions off topic into football, economics, hard science, his wife, musings on life - nervous laughter from the audience of 'where's this going' interspersed with genuine laughter of a unique speech brilliantly delivered. And then all brought back around to relevance at the last minute, much to everyone's surprise and relief.
    He's a genuine eccentric, my father-in-law, but I consider myself pretty fortunate to be indirectly related to him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    It must be very annoying for lefties, that they keep getting whacked by this guy who is apparently as thick as a breeze-block

    Alternatively, you lot - and many others - consistently under-estimate him, hence his sustained and remarkable success. Has it not occurred to you that Boris acts the clown for this very reason?
    In any case politicians who were genuine intellectuals like Roy Jenkins, Michael Portillo, Oliver Letwin or Enoch Powell rarely get to No 10 anyway.

    PMs can hire intelligence and hire very clever people and advisers, what they need above all is good judgement (with ideally some charisma to win elections)
  • Leon said:

    It must be very annoying for lefties, that they keep getting whacked by this guy who is apparently as thick as a breeze-block

    Alternatively, you lot - and many others - consistently under-estimate him, hence his sustained and remarkable success. Has it not occurred to you that Boris acts the clown for this very reason?
    Of course, it's part of his act. As others have noted, I am not saying that he is stupid, simply that in the realm of top flight global politics where you expect a certain level of intelligence, he is simply an act, an empty performance, with no guiding political philosophy, no strategy for delivering it, no deep ideas, no ability to communicate complex ideas, not even any apparent ability to engage with reality.
    It is frustrating that this proves so successful, and I agree with you that he has a real cunning and excellent political antennae which make him hard to beat. I'm not sure how one can counter him, really - we probably just have to wait for his shtick to grow stale and for his political platform to collapse under the weight of its contradictions and his governing incompetence. That might take a while, sadly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    JBriskin3 said:

    James II was never king - he was Charlie II's brother wasn't he?
    Ooh, he was: 1685-1688. And then he was deposed by the glorious revolution. I'm sure HYUFD can fill in the details if he's still around.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited November 2021

    I think there had to have been a James II in order for us to talk about James I; we don't call the previous Queen Victoria I and Good Queen Bess would have been known as just Elizabeth until 1952.

    Having said that, the Scottish element complicates things, so I could be talking complete rubbish.
    Just, by coincidence, reading the second of two fascinating books by J. D. Davies about the Stuart navy in England under the Charleses and James VII and II. Gives a very different perspective on James from the usual land-centred histories. Particularly interesting on such things as the royal yachts, naming of RN ships (a surprising number of modern RN ships also derive their name from the Carolingian illegitimates), and the use of ornate carved ornament as an arguably legitimate weapon of state,.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kings-Sea-Charles-James-Royal/dp/1848324006

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pepys-Navy-Ships-Warfare-1649-89/dp/1473879280/ref=asc_df_1473879280/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=310979544451&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=814520079166420493&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9050372&hvtargid=pla-592255466579&psc=1&th=1&psc=1
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    Farooq said:

    What I'm saying is that people who go around saying stuff like "I'm pro Glorious Revolution" usually also have a penchant for Glaswegian football clubs that play in blue, and imploring supreme beings to keep female monarchs safe from harm. Orange sashes and songs about King Billy. Bowler-hat talk. You know what I mean.
    Not necessarily. I'm pro-glorious revolution because it is why we have a constitutional monarchy, not an absolute monarchy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Cookie said:

    Ooh, he was: 1685-1688. And then he was deposed by the glorious revolution. I'm sure HYUFD can fill in the details if he's still around.
    He was deposed by his daughter, Mary and her husband the Dutch Prince William of Orange who became monarchs at Parliament's invitation
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    He was deposed by his daughter, Mary and her husband the Dutch Prince William of Orange who became monarchs at Parliament's invitation
    So not by the Grace of God then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    GAHHH
  • He has plenty of instinctive, opportunistic political cunning I think, but very little wisdom. That would also be consistent with being poor at the job of governing, itself.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    Farooq said:

    What I'm saying is that people who go around saying stuff like "I'm pro Glorious Revolution" usually also have a penchant for Glaswegian football clubs that play in blue, and imploring supreme beings to keep female monarchs safe from harm. Orange sashes and songs about King Billy. Bowler-hat talk. You know what I mean.
    Quite right. The Pope is Antichrist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,835
    edited November 2021
    Laura Kuenssberg:

    Justin Welby on 'cursing' leaders if they fail to act at COP- 'people will speak of them in far stronger terms than we speak..of the politicians who ignored what was happening in Nazi Germany because this will kill people all around the world for generations'

    He went on to say 'It will allow a genocide on an infinitely greater scale. I'm not sure there's grades of genocide, but there's width of genocide, and this will be genocide indirectly, by negligence, recklessness'


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1455208478994206720
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I don't know what is more staggering, the police saying this was a civil matter until the BBC put pressure on them and it was upgraded to a criminal matter, or the solicitors who have well and truly screwed up.

    A man has described his shock at returning to his house and finding it stripped of all furnishings after it was sold without his knowledge.

    Having been alerted by neighbours, the Reverend Mike Hall drove to Luton and found building work under way and a new owner who said he had bought the house.

    A BBC investigation found Mr Hall's identity had been stolen and used to sell the house and bank the proceeds.

    Police initially told him it was not fraud but are now investigating.

    Mr Hall, who was away from the property and working in north Wales, said he received a call from his neighbours on 20 August, saying that someone was in the house and all the lights were on.

    The following morning, he drove there.

    "I went to the front door, tried my key in the front door, it didn't work and a man opened the front door to me," he told BBC Radio 4's You and Yours.

    "I pushed him to one side and got in the property. I really didn't know what he was doing there.

    "The shock of seeing the house completely stripped of furniture; all furnishings, carpet, curtains - everything - was out of the property."

    The man said he was doing building work, to which Mr Hall replied: "I haven't sold the house. This is still my property."

    Mr Hall phoned the police, but the builder left and returned with the new owner's father, who said he had bought the terraced house in July, adding: "It is now my property. You are now trespassing. Get out."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59069662

    Presumably the fake vendor’s solicitors insurance ends up compensating the buyer for the purchase price and the seller to make good? Unless negligence by the solicitor can be proved?
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    edited November 2021
    Farooq said:

    What I'm saying is that people who go around saying stuff like "I'm pro Glorious Revolution" usually also have a penchant for Glaswegian football clubs that play in blue, and imploring supreme beings to keep female monarchs safe from harm. Orange sashes and songs about King Billy. Bowler-hat talk. You know what I mean.
    Well an Aberdeen fan and I call Old Firm matches "Scotland's Shame" - but if you want to lump me in with the huns because of my religion that's fine by me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Of course, it's part of his act. As others have noted, I am not saying that he is stupid, simply that in the realm of top flight global politics where you expect a certain level of intelligence, he is simply an act, an empty performance, with no guiding political philosophy, no strategy for delivering it, no deep ideas, no ability to communicate complex ideas, not even any apparent ability to engage with reality.
    It is frustrating that this proves so successful, and I agree with you that he has a real cunning and excellent political antennae which make him hard to beat. I'm not sure how one can counter him, really - we probably just have to wait for his shtick to grow stale and for his political platform to collapse under the weight of its contradictions and his governing incompetence. That might take a while, sadly.
    I'm reminded of the book 'The psychology of military incompetence' by Norman Dixon which argued, IIRC, that the qualities one needs for promotion in the army, etc., are historically often positively opposed to those which are needed to actually fight a war well, let alone win it, even in wartime. There is, likewise, a distinction between being able to get elected to run the UK versus actually doing so well, and it's easy to see again how the personal qualities needed can differ in a way which is dysfunctional. A lot of people think this is happening in the case of Mr Johnson. ,
  • Laura Kuenssberg:

    Justin Welby on 'cursing' leaders if they fail to act at COP- 'people will speak of them in far stronger terms than we speak..of the politicians who ignored what was happening in Nazi Germany because this will kill people all around the world for generations'

    He went on to say 'It will allow a genocide on an infinitely greater scale. I'm not sure there's grades of genocide, but there's width of genocide, and this will be genocide indirectly, by negligence, recklessness'


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1455208478994206720

    This crazy talk is mad.

    Tackling global warming is the right thing to do without Godwins or fallacious comparisons to genocide.

    It just makes the speaker look mental.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    The first hint of dusk at 4.36. The light is fragile. The sky inclines

    UGH
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815

    Of course, it's part of his act. As others have noted, I am not saying that he is stupid, simply that in the realm of top flight global politics where you expect a certain level of intelligence, he is simply an act, an empty performance, with no guiding political philosophy, no strategy for delivering it, no deep ideas, no ability to communicate complex ideas, not even any apparent ability to engage with reality.
    It is frustrating that this proves so successful, and I agree with you that he has a real cunning and excellent political antennae which make him hard to beat. I'm not sure how one can counter him, really - we probably just have to wait for his shtick to grow stale and for his political platform to collapse under the weight of its contradictions and his governing incompetence. That might take a while, sadly.
    I'll give you no guiding political philosophy - or at least not a consistent one. He's sort of pro-liberty, but that only lasted very briefly in the fires of the pandemic. Though we'd have probably had even less liberty with other PMs.
    No strategy for delivering it - well that follows from the above. But yes.
    No deep ideas - again, possibly a vague principle of liberty, but not strongly held.
    But I'd say his communication is pretty good and his engagement with reality as good as any. I don't think any other PM could have delivered the 'some of us will die' speech at the beginning of the pandemic so well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502

    Laura Kuenssberg:

    Justin Welby on 'cursing' leaders if they fail to act at COP- 'people will speak of them in far stronger terms than we speak..of the politicians who ignored what was happening in Nazi Germany because this will kill people all around the world for generations'

    He went on to say 'It will allow a genocide on an infinitely greater scale. I'm not sure there's grades of genocide, but there's width of genocide, and this will be genocide indirectly, by negligence, recklessness'


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1455208478994206720

    It is not remotely genocide, a word that is used increasingly indiscriminately.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Carnyx said:

    Just, by coincidence, reading the second of two fascinating books by J. D. Davies about the Stuart navy in England under the Charleses and James VII and II. Gives a very different perspective on James from the usual land-centred histories. Particularly interesting on such things as the royal yachts, naming of RN ships (a surprising number of modern RN ships also derive their name from the Carolingian illegitimates), and the use of ornate carved ornament as an arguably legitimate weapon of state,.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kings-Sea-Charles-James-Royal/dp/1848324006

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pepys-Navy-Ships-Warfare-1649-89/dp/1473879280/ref=asc_df_1473879280/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=310979544451&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=814520079166420493&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9050372&hvtargid=pla-592255466579&psc=1&th=1&psc=1
    PS There's a story of James in exile, with a party of French nobles, standing on the shore watching the RN thrash the French and jumping up and down and saying how well "my" ships and sailors were fighting. Not a tactful chap, our Jamie.
  • This crazy talk is mad.

    Tackling global warming is the right thing to do without Godwins or fallacious comparisons to genocide.

    It just makes the speaker look mental.
    Well Welby believes in a sky fairy knocking up a virgin and you worry today's comments make him look mental?
  • Well Welby believes in a sky fairy knocking up a virgin and you worry today's comments make him look mental?
    Does he?

    I thought he was Church of England.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    HYUFD said:

    He was deposed by his daughter, Mary and her husband the Dutch Prince William of Orange who became monarchs at Parliament's invitation
    The deposition-by-daughter is is a historical point seldom dwelled on. Must have been a bit awkward at subsequent Christmas dinners.
  • Anyone ever made money underestimating Boris?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    Cookie said:

    I think that's a sign of intelligence, but far from the only one.
    My father-in-law is one of the cleverest people I know. He is a professor. However, he is clever in a very niche field and his ability to communicate anything complex to anyone not already at A level maths/physics level is almost nonexistent, to the frustration of my wife when she was a teenager struggling with algebra.
    He is also very clever in one thing and one thing only and sees no need to be clever about anything else - managing to put a new duvet on, finding your way around your home town, managing to feed yourself a nutritious meal... In most practical respects he is almost wholly dependent on my mother-in-law.

    Nonetheless, at our wedding, he delivered by far the best and funniest father of the bride's speech I have ever heard.
    One of my lecturers at university was undoubtedly bright. He did not, however, have any ability to explain anything anyone who was not one his level - an IQ of about 200....

    This made teaching undergraduates a waste of time. For him and the undergraduates.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254

    Anyone ever made money underestimating Boris?

    Pretty sure I got on Boris at 2/1 for Mayor thanks to PB.

    I know that doesn't count.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    Carnyx said:

    I'm reminded of the book 'The psychology of military incompetence' by Norman Dixon which argued, IIRC, that the qualities one needs for promotion in the army, etc., are historically often positively opposed to those which are needed to actually fight a war well, let alone win it, even in wartime. There is, likewise, a distinction between being able to get elected to run the UK versus actually doing so well, and it's easy to see again how the personal qualities needed can differ in a way which is dysfunctional. A lot of people think this is happening in the case of Mr Johnson. ,
    If getting the message across is an important part of the job, then Boris certainly managed that at COP26. His speech was actually listenable with some memorable phrases. It's not all that easy even if you have recourse to speechwriters. Compare his effort to Biden's for instance.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Anyone ever made money underestimating Boris?

    Plenty have lost money overestimating him.
  • Anyone ever made money underestimating Boris?

    Yes, in 2016.

    Absolute bucketloads.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Does he?

    I thought he was Church of England.
    OTOH that makes him believe that HMtQ has the (residual) divine right to be head of his church. Just because Henry VIII wanted to change wives.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Leon said:

    The first hint of dusk at 4.36. The light is fragile. The sky inclines

    UGH

    My sympathies. I love the winter and the dark nights to snuggle down. Find something decent to watch on TV. Whiskey consumption increases markedly. And then the joy of the new spring to look forward too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,800

    Clever or just well educated? There is a world of difference. I ask seriously being one of the few here apparently who are not on intimate terms with him.
    Fear not, Richard, I've also succeeded in never meeting him. My brother hasn't though.
  • Yes, in 2016.

    Absolute bucketloads.
    Which was the biggest domestic betting market in 2016?

    I suspect those who underestimating Boris lost far more than those overestimating him did.
  • Mr. F, indeed not. The Archsocialist is a full-blown moron.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sorry John, but you're wrong.

    If a Conservative government were to pass a measure that the Monarch would veto, then they wouldn't be a Conservative government! It is one of the core tenets of True Conservatism to be a monarchist, and no monarchist would pass a Bill that the Monarch could not give assent to.

    Your scenario is therefore moot.
    Bravo, sir, Bravo!
  • Which was the biggest domestic betting market in 2016?

    I suspect those who underestimating Boris lost far more than those overestimating him did.
    I made money on both the Tory 2016 leadership contest and the referendum.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Laura Kuenssberg:

    Justin Welby on 'cursing' leaders if they fail to act at COP- 'people will speak of them in far stronger terms than we speak..of the politicians who ignored what was happening in Nazi Germany because this will kill people all around the world for generations'

    He went on to say 'It will allow a genocide on an infinitely greater scale. I'm not sure there's grades of genocide, but there's width of genocide, and this will be genocide indirectly, by negligence, recklessness'


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1455208478994206720

    That quote about genocide sounds like something out of The Day Today.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    Carnyx said:

    PS There's a story of James in exile, with a party of French nobles, standing on the shore watching the RN thrash the French and jumping up and down and saying how well "my" ships and sailors were fighting. Not a tactful chap, our Jamie.
    During the Crimean War, Lord Ragalan had a habit of referring to the Russians as "the French".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Carnyx said:

    So not by the Grace of God then.
    By that too, it was by Grace of God and confirmed at the glorious revolution we were to be a Protestant nation
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383

    Providentially, Apple stiffing Facebook means more money for Apple. Huzzah, or not.
    This is spot on.

    Apple has its own advertising network, where tracking is (can you believe it?) turned on by default. You can go into Settings to disallow it, but even there, it talks about personalisation, whereas for FB, etc. it talks about tracking.

    As a consequence, people who advertise on iOS devices are basically forced to use Apple's network. It will - I'm sure - result in tens of billions of dollars of advertising revenue for Apple. It will not actually increase user privacy, because they offer exactly the same programmatic advertising as everyone else.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Carnyx said:

    I'm reminded of the book 'The psychology of military incompetence' by Norman Dixon which argued, IIRC, that the qualities one needs for promotion in the army, etc., are historically often positively opposed to those which are needed to actually fight a war well, let alone win it, even in wartime. There is, likewise, a distinction between being able to get elected to run the UK versus actually doing so well, and it's easy to see again how the personal qualities needed can differ in a way which is dysfunctional. A lot of people think this is happening in the case of Mr Johnson. ,
    Except that Johnson has one crucial political skill when he is "governing" (not just campaigning)

    He can spot talent, and he promotes it rapidly, and he uses it well

    Dominic Cumming is one example. Another is Kate Bingham, the Vaccine Woman

    Being a good talent-spotter and a good delegator is an underrated ability. Look at the worst modern prime ministers - Brown, TMay. They notably lack this ability. Boris has it, and it may make him a decent prime minister as well as a hugely clever election-winner. We shall see

  • My sympathies. I love the winter and the dark nights to snuggle down. Find something decent to watch on TV. Whiskey consumption increases markedly. And then the joy of the new spring to look forward too.
    Like you I much prefer autumn and winter to summer. I seem to suffer from a reverse form of SAD. My work rate and activity go through the roof as the nights close in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited November 2021
    Carnyx said:

    OTOH that makes him believe that HMtQ has the (residual) divine right to be head of his church. Just because Henry VIII wanted to change wives.
    The ultimate head of all churches is God (as indeed God is also ultimate head of the Muslim and Jewish faith), the monarch is just the Church of England's head on earth just as the Pope is the Catholic church's head on earth.

  • Actually Mike and myself made plenty of money in 2012 on underestimating Boris Johnson.

    In mid to late April 2012 plenty of the polls had Boris Johnson winning the first round by over 10% and the second round by a similar amount.

    The reality was just under 4% on the first round and 3% in the second round.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Sri Lanka look pretty good at this batting lark.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    rcs1000 said:

    Sri Lanka look pretty good at this batting lark.

    My plan worked. :smile:
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    Leon said:

    The first hint of dusk at 4.36. The light is fragile. The sky inclines

    UGH

    And yet I am viewing November with happy anticipation. When it stops raining, the light is glorious. The trees are finally blazing with glory. A bonfire at the rugby club on Friday - missed that last year - our annual fireworks party with a few friends on Sunday - missed that one too. We'll make the Christmas Cake the following weekend - another annual tradition: I've got photos of us doing it every year since my oldest was 1; younger daughters joining in in subsequent years. The next weekend we'll walk up Arnside Knott to see the sunset, and have tea at the Albion in Arnside: that's a family tradition for November too which we missed last year. And then the weekend after I've got my first weekend of evading parental responsibility since 2018, seeing some friends I've not seen for three years. A conversation in a pub with some friends: what better way of spending a bleak November evening.

    I rather like November.
  • Good reward for Woakes.
  • Farooq said:

    Rather depends on how much you staked. You'd have been a fool to stake much on the Remain campaign. I backed Leave to the hilt and won heavily and had a nibble at Boris for the leadership and lost some of my winnings.
    I don't have the figures with me but OGH or TSE do but I expect an order of magnitude more cash was staked on the Remain campaign in 2016 than on Boris's leadership bid. Much more.

    I expect those who overestimated Boris still ended up on average betting winners between the two markets. As OGH often says, its about value not winning every bet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Leon said:

    Except that Johnson has one crucial political skill when he is "governing" (not just campaigning)

    He can spot talent, and he promotes it rapidly, and he uses it well

    Dominic Cumming is one example. Another is Kate Bingham, the Vaccine Woman

    Being a good talent-spotter and a good delegator is an underrated ability. Look at the worst modern prime ministers - Brown, TMay. They notably lack this ability. Boris has it, and it may make him a decent prime minister as well as a hugely clever election-winner. We shall see

    Don't forget Gavin Williamson.

    Spotted.

    Promoted.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    rcs1000 said:

    Don't forget Gavin Williamson.

    Spotted.

    Promoted.
    Yes, that is a bit of a black mark
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    The ultimate head of all churches is God (as indeed God is also ultimate head of the Muslim and Jewish faith), the monarch is just the Church of England's head on earth just as the Pope is the Catholic church's head on earth.

    The Pope doesn't have the administrative secretary of the Vatican territories as his boss, does he?
  • Farooq said:

    Nadine Dorries
    What's wrong with Dorries?

    She's not a proven failure like Williamson. And has said good things about how to deal with the BBC in the past so quite happy for her to have a chance in that role.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    edited November 2021
    I know a few people who were at Oxford at the time of Boris and Dave.

    Actually it is Boris Johnson who was the essay crisis chap and Dave was the girly swot.

    There's a reason why Dave ended up with a first and Boris Johnson ended up with an upper second.

    Both intelligent but only one applied themselves.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,800
    Charles said:

    That don’t impress me much?
    Yep! - glad to see people get it when I do that sort of nonsense. I'd have to stop doing it otherwise.
  • Cookie said:

    I'll give you no guiding political philosophy - or at least not a consistent one. He's sort of pro-liberty, but that only lasted very briefly in the fires of the pandemic. Though we'd have probably had even less liberty with other PMs.
    No strategy for delivering it - well that follows from the above. But yes.
    No deep ideas - again, possibly a vague principle of liberty, but not strongly held.
    But I'd say his communication is pretty good and his engagement with reality as good as any. I don't think any other PM could have delivered the 'some of us will die' speech at the beginning of the pandemic so well.
    I disagree on engagement with reality, and I think it's an important one because it explains both his strength as a campaigner and his weakness in government. Having a weak grasp on reality actually helps him politically because it allows him to say things that aren't true without appearing dishonest. But in government reality matters.
    I would be interested if anyone knows the highest level Johnson achieved in a STEM subject as he gives the strong impression of being unable to think in quantitative terms. Eg does he have A level maths? I would be genuinely surprised if he did. Again, this is the sort of thing that can be a plus politically - it allows him to rattle off statistics without any care as to their accuracy, and the innumerate press corps give him a free pass. But in government it is a disadvantage. Compare and contrast with the highly numerate Thatcher, for instance.
  • I know a few people who were at Oxford at the time of Boris and Dave.

    Actually it is Boris Johnson who was the essay crisis chap and Dave was the girly swot.

    There's a reason why Dave ended up with a first and Boris Johnson ended up with an upper second.

    Its an interesting philosophical question as to which suits the PM better though.

    Given how many things are constantly demanding the PM's attention, an ability to essay crisis could be useful.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    edited November 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    This is spot on.

    Apple has its own advertising network, where tracking is (can you believe it?) turned on by default. You can go into Settings to disallow it, but even there, it talks about personalisation, whereas for FB, etc. it talks about tracking.

    As a consequence, people who advertise on iOS devices are basically forced to use Apple's network. It will - I'm sure - result in tens of billions of dollars of advertising revenue for Apple. It will not actually increase user privacy, because they offer exactly the same programmatic advertising as everyone else.
    From memory it offers a lot less tracking opportunities so it's harder for a online shop to run a remarketing campaign on different sites of items you've looked at in the past.

    And what it has really scuppered is Meta's and Google's love of tracking things across all devices that you are logged in to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Farooq said:

    Nadine Dorries
    She offered to look after my two year old son when my daughter needed to use the bathroom, so I think Ms Dorries is OK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I thought that made you ecstatic. :smile:
    No, just one of those slightly tedious things that had to be done
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    edited November 2021
    Cookie said:

    And yet I am viewing November with happy anticipation. When it stops raining, the light is glorious. The trees are finally blazing with glory. A bonfire at the rugby club on Friday - missed that last year - our annual fireworks party with a few friends on Sunday - missed that one too. We'll make the Christmas Cake the following weekend - another annual tradition: I've got photos of us doing it every year since my oldest was 1; younger daughters joining in in subsequent years. The next weekend we'll walk up Arnside Knott to see the sunset, and have tea at the Albion in Arnside: that's a family tradition for November too which we missed last year. And then the weekend after I've got my first weekend of evading parental responsibility since 2018, seeing some friends I've not seen for three years. A conversation in a pub with some friends: what better way of spending a bleak November evening.

    I rather like November.
    "Autumn is the mind's true spring"

    I can see that. Indeed I get the same feeling myself. As the light retreats my mind crackles, like a bonfire. I often work harder, I often think better. Autumn is commonly when I have new ideas

    And I love the whole fireworks and frosty evenings and kicking-the-fallen-leaves-in-the-park stuff. I can get behind Autumn, and December can be a gas, as we head for Christmas

    It is what Autumn leads to that slays me. Winter. And winter in Britain has almost nothing to be said for it. Our winter isn't even thrillingly cold and snowy. It is just long, bleak, dank and dark. I hate it with a passion. Hopefully I will be able to sod off somewhere sunny this winter, as I was not allowed to do, last winter
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    eek said:

    From memory it offers a lot less tracking opportunities so it's harder for a online shop to run a remarketing campaign on different sites of items you've looked at in the past.

    And what it has really scuppered is Meta's and Google's love of tracking things across all devices that you are logged in to.
    I'm not sure that's true: Apple tracks you across all your activity across all your apps across all your Apple devices.

    It may not track you on your Windows PC, but that's still a hell of a lot of tracking that's used to sell advertising more efficiently.

    And for the record, it works. We have had some incredible success with Apple at Just.
  • Cookie said:

    And yet I am viewing November with happy anticipation. When it stops raining, the light is glorious. The trees are finally blazing with glory. A bonfire at the rugby club on Friday - missed that last year - our annual fireworks party with a few friends on Sunday - missed that one too. We'll make the Christmas Cake the following weekend - another annual tradition: I've got photos of us doing it every year since my oldest was 1; younger daughters joining in in subsequent years. The next weekend we'll walk up Arnside Knott to see the sunset, and have tea at the Albion in Arnside: that's a family tradition for November too which we missed last year. And then the weekend after I've got my first weekend of evading parental responsibility since 2018, seeing some friends I've not seen for three years. A conversation in a pub with some friends: what better way of spending a bleak November evening.

    I rather like November.
    Although not religious I have a thing I refer to as the 'Sacred Season'. It starts in September around the time of Harvest Festival and Last Night of the Proms. It then continues through the Autumn Equinox, Halloween, Bonfire Night, various birthdays, all the pre Christmas markets and events and then Yule and finally Christmas. Throw in the feast of St Nicholas at the start of December for the kids and there are loads of excuses for celebrations, meals and parties. Lots of family traditions. All against the background of our fantastic changing seasons. Definitely my favourite time of year.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    rcs1000 said:

    She offered to look after my two year old son when my daughter needed to use the bathroom, so I think Ms Dorries is OK.
    That's probably why Boris gave her the job.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Livingstone's a bit rubbish, isn't he?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Livingstone's a bit rubbish, isn't he?

    Well he is a Lancastrian.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    No sun — no moon!
    No morn — no noon —
    No dawn — no dusk — no proper time of day.

    No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
    No comfortable feel in any member —
    No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
    No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! —
    November!

    Thomas Hood.

    That's what a haiku would look like if the Japanese were as good as we are at this stuff.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Dr. Jon Stanley
    @JonMarcStanley
    ·
    1m
    The UK, through
    @DavidGHFrost
    , needs to tidy up the Good Friday Agreement. It cannot be maintained in good faith so long as the EU in mentioned in it.

    We have left. So long as they are mentioned they feel we have not. Those references need removed or eventually GFA will fail.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,815
    Leon said:

    "Autumn is the mind's true spring"

    I can see that. Indeed I get the same feeling myself. As the light retreats my mind crackles, like a bonfire. I often work harder, I often think better. Autumn is commonly when I have new ideas

    And I love the whole fireworks and frosty evenings and kicking-the-fallen-leaves-in-the-park stuff. I can get behind Autumn, and December can be a gas, as we head for Christmas

    It is what Autumn leads to that slays me. Winter. And winter in Britain has almost nothing to be said for it. Our winter isn't even thrillingly cold and snowy. It is just long, bleak, dank and dark. I hate it with a passion. Hopefully I will be able to sod off somewhere sunny this winter, as I was not allowed to do, last winter
    Yes, I agree.
    There's only actually five or six weeks of bleak - from January 2nd to pancake day. Pancake day is when it feels like New Year should really be: still cold and relatively dark but the days starting to lengthen at a pace, and the first flowers poking through. But I would envy you being somewhere else for it.

    I also like Autumn because it's when the school year starts. And it always therefore feels like a time of new beginnings and new possibilities.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Not impressed by Mills. He could give this game away this over.
  • JBriskin3JBriskin3 Posts: 1,254
    Dr. Jon Stanley
    @JonMarcStanley
    ·
    38s
    Replying to
    @JonMarcStanley
    Let's hear them say it,

    "The EU has no selfish strategic or economic interest in Northern Ireland"

    If they can't, nor should we. Let's hear it. Remove the EU from the GFA.

    @J_Donaldson_MP

    @BeattieDoug

    @JimAllister

    @CatharineHoey

    @benhabib6
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Well he is a Lancastrian.
    Born Streatham, Lancashire; moved to Tulse Hill, Lancashire?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Born Streatham, Lancashire; moved to Tulse Hill, Lancashire?
    Liam, not Ken.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    If you watch Macron in that clip from yesterday, when he said (of Australia) "I don't just think they lied, I know" - then you can see the bitterness, anger and stinging humiliation, in his eyes. AUKUS really hurt. Personally for Macron, and politically for his country

    The absurd over-reaction to fish (and everything else) is all about this. They want us to hurt as they have been hurt, and they think they can do it. We need to treat them, cordially, as an enemy from now on, and expect them to behave as such
This discussion has been closed.