politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could
Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before.
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First!0
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the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.
If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....0 -
Of course if today's Labour YouGov +5 was replicated in May many more than these would fall......
Given Project Fib Fear's move onto the NHS, its interesting that the Scottish subsample, (I know, I know) still has the NHS as a significant Labour strength - double that of 'other':
Which party could handle best NHS
OA (Scot)
Con: 23 (10)
Lab: 35 (39)
Other: 7 (19)
Not being prompted for is almost certainly depressing the SNP's score......but it still quite a gap.....
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6jk31pdtnk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180814.pdf
Now if only some Labour politicians south of the border could lay off the shroud waving until the 19th.....0 -
Surely it dependes on how the rUK Government decides to deal with the separation, if the vote is Yes. Presumably there’ll be a team of officials, but also presumably a politician, or group of politicians participating as well as overseeing. If that’s an all party group then the issue will be defused as an rUK issue, but if the Coalition appoints a small Ministerial team then things will be different. If that team’s without a LibDem, then things will be even worse!CarlottaVance said:the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.
If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....0 -
I guess to many working class Scots Salmond seems a better alternative to Blair or Miliband and if they had time for Brown what does it matter when he was summarily hung, drawn and quartered by the English. I can't see the Union ever being on a solid footing whilst one of the two main parties in Westminster is so unpopular there.0
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Given the SNP government's declared position on things like a currency union (60% EW oppposition) and Trident (EW - we'll take it 47%) - it's unlikely negotiation will successfully be carried out in secret - it will be a field day for the tabloids and those prone to capitalise on populist band wagons like, er, politicians.OldKingCole said:
Surely it dependes on how the rUK Government decides to deal with the separation, if the vote is Yes. Presumably there’ll be a team of officials, but also presumably a politician, or group of politicians participating as well as overseeing. If that’s an all party group then the issue will be defused as an rUK issue, but if the Coalition appoints a small Ministerial team then things will be different. If that team’s without a LibDem, then things will be even worse!CarlottaVance said:the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.
If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....0 -
KW posting for JackW
New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.0 -
It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.0
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Ah okay! Well KW, please wish the old Jacobite well from us.Innocent_Abroad said:0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Surprised but pleased I've actually just finished the second season of Battelstar Galactica (running Monday nights/Tuesday mornings on Pick). Thought I was further along than that.
Anyway, Yes isn't out for the count by any stretch. I wonder to what extent the parties' planning is on hiatus for the election until the referendum result is known.0 -
Of course Corby has been held by Labour since November 2012 - so they will be defending it.0
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F1: the sport does love to have multiple names. A few years we had Sebastians (Bourdais, Buemi and some chap called Vettel), now we have Nicos (Rosberg and Hulkenberg), Williams has a pair of Felipes (test driver is confusingly called Felipe Nasr, pronounced Nassa), and now we will have a second Max.
Max Verstappen, son of former driver Jos, is to replace Vergne at Toro Rosso next year. Feel some sympathy for Vergne, but this isn't perhaps the most unexpected departure in the world:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28844722
He'll be 17 when he starts next year. I do wonder if that's old enough (as much psychologically as physically). We'll find out.0 -
His father featured in one of f1's most iconic if frightening moments.Morris_Dancer said:F1: the sport does love to have multiple names. A few years we had Sebastians (Bourdais, Buemi and some chap called Vettel), now we have Nicos (Rosberg and Hulkenberg), Williams has a pair of Felipes (test driver is confusingly called Felipe Nasr, pronounced Nassa), and now we will have a second Max.
Max Verstappen, son of former driver Jos, is to replace Vergne at Toro Rosso next year. Feel some sympathy for Vergne, but this isn't perhaps the most unexpected departure in the world:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28844722
He'll be 17 when he starts next year. I do wonder if that's old enough (as much psychologically as physically). We'll find out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCykFawdq400 -
Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.0 -
Stroud is an interesting seat and always seems to be good potential territory for the Greens (judging by some of the retail outlets) but has not come to fruition so far.
In 1997 looking at the electoral results, there appear to be a big switch from LibDems to Labour Co-op which appears to have stuck - was this caused by a boundary change?
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It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.0 -
Mr. Eagles, Heinz-Harald sounds like a Viking who loves baked beans.
I fear this post may be slightly off-topic.0 -
T'was HH Frentzen.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.
17 seems too young to me. He's done hardly any racing, and although he's 2nd in the F3 championship, I wonder at his racecraft.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Verstappen
Then again, Kimi hadn't done much before F1...
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Ha Ha Ha , you are easily taken inInnocent_Abroad said:0 -
I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.
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Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.malcolmg said:0 -
Out of these seats, I'd think Pudsey may be the only one the Tories come close to holding but with 10k lib Dems in the seat, I'm not hopeful0
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Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.0 -
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There is a constituency called Pudsey? Well blow me down.TheScreamingEagles said:Out of these seats, I'd think Pudsey may be the only one the Tories come close to holding but with 10k lib Dems in the seat, I'm not hopeful
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Mr. Jessop, Raikkonen's not normal. I mean that in a nice way. He can be asleep one moment and then straight into qualifying the next. Of course, Verstappen may be the same, but I worry it'll be too soon for him (bit like Grosjean) and he'd be better off spending a couple more years out of the limelight.
However, worth saying Kvyat really hit the ground running. Sauber kept Sirotkin out this year, largely due to age, I think (he's around Kvyat's age, maybe a little younger).0 -
Based on personal experience??Innocent_Abroad said:
I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.0 -
As if I would tell an idiot like you, I am sure litigation would follow.Financier said:
PS: if you are as smart as you claim you should be able to find out, look for loonies that have recently appeared on the scene in Scotland.0 -
Mr. G, I just cannot see a currency union being conceded. It'd be political suicide. It's practically the only realistic issue that would lose the blues my vote next time around, and if that meant Balls retaining his seat, so be it.
I do hope No wins, but it'd be useful to have a holodeck to see how a Yes negotiation would go.0 -
MD, I doubt that your inclinations will concern them much in the grand scheme of things though. As you will know it is a handful of seats that decide the election, they can contain any displeasure easily if it suits them, and if Balls is in the negotiating team , why would you vote for him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I just cannot see a currency union being conceded. It'd be political suicide. It's practically the only realistic issue that would lose the blues my vote next time around, and if that meant Balls retaining his seat, so be it.
I do hope No wins, but it'd be useful to have a holodeck to see how a Yes negotiation would go.0 -
None so loony as those that fantasize about people's identities.malcolmg said:
As if I would tell an idiot like you, I am sure litigation would follow.Financier said:
PS: if you are as smart as you claim you should be able to find out, look for loonies that have recently appeared on the scene in Scotland.0 -
No, thank God.Financier said:
Based on personal experience??Innocent_Abroad said:
I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.
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Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.
More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.
I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.0 -
Might it be interesting to have a thread in which we compared notes on how much activity (and what kind) we were encountered from different parties? My impression from chatting to colleagues is that all the action is in the Con and LibDem marginals, and despite the official 40-40 strategy, actually the Tories are not trying very hard in the Labour marginals. But I have an obviously biased sample (Labour candidates!) and it'd be intriguing to hear from others. Are you getting leaflets from anyone? Phone calls? Direct mail? Canvassers?
The Ashcroft marginal polls suggested that typically about 20% were hearing from each of the main contenders, though I think the form of contact is varying a lot. A friend in one of the marginals in Ealing tells me he's not heard from anyone at all for yonks.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.
More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.
I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.
MD, if you have no other option other than Kipper at best, what to do. You will have been given all the good reasons why it had to be done , so most people will be just BAU as all will have been involved in the dirty deed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.
More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.
I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.
If not you will have more to worry you and will be voting Kipper anyway.0 -
Mr. G, BAU?0
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Posted by KW for JackW
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 5th August Projection) :
Con 314 (+2) .. Lab 273 (-3) .. LibDem 32 (+2) .. SNP 8 (-1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
Labour 53 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 5th August - Bury North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
.......................................................................................
Posted by KW for JackW0 -
Vote as they normally doMorris_Dancer said:Mr. G, BAU?
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Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.0 -
I suspect the public are against anything that seems to involve bankers.0
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Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.0 -
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.0 -
Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.RobD said:
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.0 -
Miss DiCanio, ah, I'd forgotten that, but you're right.0
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The sort of corruption and malfeasance that UKIP will be investigating and rooting out.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 25m
Homer’s Odyssey: http://bit.ly/1o8yuJ80 -
@Morris_Dancer
BAU = Business As Usual.
Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.0 -
Mr. Barber, ah, cheers. I do loathe certain modern terms. Work-life balance might be the single worst.0
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Might have been an interesting addition to your not-for-publication cv.Innocent_Abroad said:
No, thank God.Financier said:
Based on personal experience??Innocent_Abroad said:
I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?
Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.0 -
I don't like how work supposedly comes first.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Barber, ah, cheers. I do loathe certain modern terms. Work-life balance might be the single worst.
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The Poond Scots, worth 5p.RobD said:
Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.RobD said:
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.
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You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.RobD said:
Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.RobD said:
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.
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Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.
http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/0 -
My apologies for using it Mr BarberDaemonBarber said:@Morris_Dancer
BAU = Business As Usual.
Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.0 -
Sorry, I should have said "I should have read the story better". What I had was a tad rude.MonikerDiCanio said:
You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.RobD said:
Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.RobD said:
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.0 -
Excellent.MikeK said:Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.
http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/0 -
When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.0
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...and what is it that rUK MUST concede to Salmond?malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.0 -
NickNickPalmer said:Might it be interesting to have a thread in which we compared notes on how much activity (and what kind) we were encountered from different parties? My impression from chatting to colleagues is that all the action is in the Con and LibDem marginals, and despite the official 40-40 strategy, actually the Tories are not trying very hard in the Labour marginals. But I have an obviously biased sample (Labour candidates!) and it'd be intriguing to hear from others. Are you getting leaflets from anyone? Phone calls? Direct mail? Canvassers?
The Ashcroft marginal polls suggested that typically about 20% were hearing from each of the main contenders, though I think the form of contact is varying a lot. A friend in one of the marginals in Ealing tells me he's not heard from anyone at all for yonks.
Too much going on at the moment both nationally and internationally and too many things undecided by each of the parties.
Expect things to ramp up a bit after the Ref and the party conferences - but events like an ISIS bombing in the UK or causing a similar event to 9/11 would change the electoral climate.0 -
No worries... Having worked for large corporations you get used to it and it becomes "normal".malcolmg said:
My apologies for using it Mr BarberDaemonBarber said:@Morris_Dancer
BAU = Business As Usual.
Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.
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Many thanks to KW for keeping us up to date with Jack's projections. Looks plausible enough, although there's still lots of uncertainty.
On topic: I hate to sound ungrateful to Lord Ashcroft's generosity in providing these polls for us, but I'm still unsure whether marginals polls actually tell us anything very useful. Applying UNS and the current national polling figures, all these seats would fall to Labour. I expect Lord A's marginals polls will show much the same. Only if the sample sizes were big enough, and the polls frequent enough, and the sampling reliable enough, to distinguish differential swing in different seats would the marginals polls tell us much more than this. It's not clear to me that these conditions are in fact met.0 -
You weren't in the least bit rude.RobD said:
Sorry, I should have said "I should have read the story better". What I had was a tad rude.MonikerDiCanio said:
You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.RobD said:
Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.RobD said:
Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, I'm not so sure.
Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.
The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.
Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.
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At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.Morris_Dancer said:When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
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Mr. Nabavi, sounds like an executive spy.0
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Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.
Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.0 -
LOL.Morris_Dancer said:When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
I hate the trend for companies calling themselves "Solutions". Saw a van the other day with Confectionery Delivery Solutions painted on the side, parked outside of a newsagent's.0 -
everything he said we would because he wants it, and he says it's in our interest even though it isn't.Patrick said:
...and what is it that rUK MUST concede to Salmond?malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
The man's deluded.0 -
Mr. Barber, I guess it's meant to sound positive and, quite literally, like the answer to problems a customer might have.
But it's so over-used it just sounds a bit rubbish.0 -
Are there any Operating Operatives around? On reflection, maybe a surgeon or two?Richard_Nabavi said:
At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.Morris_Dancer said:When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
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Cost of living not increasing crisis.BenM said:Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.
Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.
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My mum used to work in th council. As I posted on here, but the post was deleted, this won't come as a surprise to anyoneRobD said:
Excellent.MikeK said:Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.
http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/0 -
Ground campaign intelligence:
A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.
First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.
Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.0 -
malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
I agree with that, the day after a yes would be a whole new reality and nobody would be constrained by things they said before the referendum.malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.0 -
1.6% -petrol is down. The strong pound helping keep inflation low
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Our man on the spot in Uppsala.Stuart_Dickson said:Ground campaign intelligence:
A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.
First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.
Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.
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Sounds like one of those titles they give to those specialising in Industrial espionage.Richard_Nabavi said:
At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.Morris_Dancer said:When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
Were you issued a dark suit and a PPK…?
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Mr. Dickson, that's not necessarily the case. There are two perfectly valid scenarios:
1) Yes wins. Labour in Scotland doesn't cease to exist.
2) Yes loses. Labour in Scotland doesn't cease to exist.
Either way, it makes sense to ask the question.
Miss DiCanio, it's quite selfless of Sven Dicksson to keep his finger on the pulse of those saucy Swedish ladies for us.0 -
It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.MaxPB said:
Deflation alert?BenM said:Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.
Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.
Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.0 -
I'm afraid we're at that point where leaves blowing in the autumn breeze will be ascribed a special significance.MonikerDiCanio said:
Our man on the spot in Uppsala.Stuart_Dickson said:Ground campaign intelligence:
A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.
First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.
Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.
30 days of boring bollocks to go. Where's the fast forward button ?0 -
It's a shame we'll never get the opportunity to fully enjoy the utter absurdity of your theory.edmundintokyo said:malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
I agree with that, the day after a yes would be a whole new reality and nobody would be constrained by things they said before the referendum.malcolmg said:
Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.Patrick said:It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
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No. That sounds like a computer generated phone script that produces questions in line with previous answers.Stuart_Dickson said:Ground campaign intelligence:
A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.
First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.
Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.
Clearly you have never been involved in canvassing.
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Surely that would be more of an import/export guy than a corporate drone?SimonStClare said:
Sounds like one of those titles they give to those specialising in Industrial espionage.Richard_Nabavi said:
At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.Morris_Dancer said:When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
Were you issued a dark suit and a PPK…?0 -
Doesn't BAU = SNAFU?
In politics, anyway!
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As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.BenM said:
It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.MaxPB said:
Deflation alert?BenM said:Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.
Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.
Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.0 -
0
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Funnily enough it’s weakening against the Thai Baht.Pulpstar said:1.6% -petrol is down. The strong pound helping keep inflation low
There are those on pb to whom this is important!0 -
malcolmg said:
What a thick mindless crass idiot you are.malcolmg said:0 -
60:40. Next.Alanbrooke said:
I'm afraid we're at that point where leaves blowing in the autumn breeze will be ascribed a special significance.MonikerDiCanio said:
Our man on the spot in Uppsala.Stuart_Dickson said:Ground campaign intelligence:
A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.
First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.
Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.
The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.
30 days of boring bollocks to go. Where's the fast forward button ?
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SNAFU - I have time for that one - It's a military term rather than business-speak. But please use the correct F or STFU ;-)OldKingCole said:Doesn't BAU = SNAFU?
In politics, anyway!
FUBAR is another favourite.
(working in Software Development and Support, I hear these 2 a lot)0 -
King Cole, but is it strong against the Vietnamese dong?0
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So your preference is for higher wages and higher unemployment? I had no idea that you are a Tory!BenM said:
It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.MaxPB said:
Deflation alert?BenM said:Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.
Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.
Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.0 -
As I've been saying for a while, I don't think interest rates are going to be increased anytime soon. The latest inflation figures provide additional evidence for that view. With the Eurozone flirting with outright deflation, the pound strong, and world commodity prices subdued, steady as she goes would seem to be the appropriate policy.
Note also: RPI 2.5%, and house prices easing off a smidgen.0
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