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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Constituency polling from these key LAB-CON marginals could give us the best indicators so far

Thanks to Lord Ashcroft and to a lesser extent Survation we are now seeing more full constituency polling in key marginals than has ever been available before.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    GeoffM said:

    First!

    I could have been first, had I chosen to be....... ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.

    If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Of course if today's Labour YouGov +5 was replicated in May many more than these would fall......

    Given Project Fib Fear's move onto the NHS, its interesting that the Scottish subsample, (I know, I know) still has the NHS as a significant Labour strength - double that of 'other':

    Which party could handle best NHS
    OA (Scot)

    Con: 23 (10)
    Lab: 35 (39)
    Other: 7 (19)

    Not being prompted for is almost certainly depressing the SNP's score......but it still quite a gap.....

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6jk31pdtnk/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180814.pdf

    Now if only some Labour politicians south of the border could lay off the shroud waving until the 19th.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,698
    CarlottaVance said:

    the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.

    If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....

    Surely it dependes on how the rUK Government decides to deal with the separation, if the vote is Yes. Presumably there’ll be a team of officials, but also presumably a politician, or group of politicians participating as well as overseeing. If that’s an all party group then the issue will be defused as an rUK issue, but if the Coalition appoints a small Ministerial team then things will be different. If that team’s without a LibDem, then things will be even worse!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I guess to many working class Scots Salmond seems a better alternative to Blair or Miliband and if they had time for Brown what does it matter when he was summarily hung, drawn and quartered by the English. I can't see the Union ever being on a solid footing whilst one of the two main parties in Westminster is so unpopular there.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    OldKingCole said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    the Scottish referendum on September 18th followed by the party conferences. This could play havoc with the national polls which should settle down by the end of October.

    If its a 'Yes' the polls will not 'settle down' until Scotland is on its way - the reaction of rUK will dominate politics until well after its sorted....

    Surely it dependes on how the rUK Government decides to deal with the separation, if the vote is Yes. Presumably there’ll be a team of officials, but also presumably a politician, or group of politicians participating as well as overseeing. If that’s an all party group then the issue will be defused as an rUK issue, but if the Coalition appoints a small Ministerial team then things will be different. If that team’s without a LibDem, then things will be even worse!
    Given the SNP government's declared position on things like a currency union (60% EW oppposition) and Trident (EW - we'll take it 47%) - it's unlikely negotiation will successfully be carried out in secret - it will be a field day for the tabloids and those prone to capitalise on populist band wagons like, er, politicians.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    Some family member of his, I think.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited August 2014
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    Some family member of his, I think.

    Ah okay! Well KW, please wish the old Jacobite well from us.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good morning, everyone.

    Surprised but pleased I've actually just finished the second season of Battelstar Galactica (running Monday nights/Tuesday mornings on Pick). Thought I was further along than that.

    Anyway, Yes isn't out for the count by any stretch. I wonder to what extent the parties' planning is on hiatus for the election until the referendum result is known.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Of course Corby has been held by Labour since November 2012 - so they will be defending it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    F1: the sport does love to have multiple names. A few years we had Sebastians (Bourdais, Buemi and some chap called Vettel), now we have Nicos (Rosberg and Hulkenberg), Williams has a pair of Felipes (test driver is confusingly called Felipe Nasr, pronounced Nassa), and now we will have a second Max.

    Max Verstappen, son of former driver Jos, is to replace Vergne at Toro Rosso next year. Feel some sympathy for Vergne, but this isn't perhaps the most unexpected departure in the world:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28844722

    He'll be 17 when he starts next year. I do wonder if that's old enough (as much psychologically as physically). We'll find out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: the sport does love to have multiple names. A few years we had Sebastians (Bourdais, Buemi and some chap called Vettel), now we have Nicos (Rosberg and Hulkenberg), Williams has a pair of Felipes (test driver is confusingly called Felipe Nasr, pronounced Nassa), and now we will have a second Max.

    Max Verstappen, son of former driver Jos, is to replace Vergne at Toro Rosso next year. Feel some sympathy for Vergne, but this isn't perhaps the most unexpected departure in the world:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28844722

    He'll be 17 when he starts next year. I do wonder if that's old enough (as much psychologically as physically). We'll find out.

    His father featured in one of f1's most iconic if frightening moments.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCykFawdq40
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited August 2014
    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Stroud is an interesting seat and always seems to be good potential territory for the Greens (judging by some of the retail outlets) but has not come to fruition so far.

    In 1997 looking at the electoral results, there appear to be a big switch from LibDems to Labour Co-op which appears to have stuck - was this caused by a boundary change?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Eagles, Heinz-Harald sounds like a Viking who loves baked beans.

    I fear this post may be slightly off-topic.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,442
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    T'was HH Frentzen.

    17 seems too young to me. He's done hardly any racing, and although he's 2nd in the F3 championship, I wonder at his racecraft.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Verstappen

    Then again, Kimi hadn't done much before F1...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    Some family member of his, I think.

    Ha Ha Ha , you are easily taken in
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.
    I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Out of these seats, I'd think Pudsey may be the only one the Tories come close to holding but with 10k lib Dems in the seat, I'm not hopeful
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    And your evidence for that statement??
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Out of these seats, I'd think Pudsey may be the only one the Tories come close to holding but with 10k lib Dems in the seat, I'm not hopeful

    There is a constituency called Pudsey? Well blow me down.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Jessop, Raikkonen's not normal. I mean that in a nice way. He can be asleep one moment and then straight into qualifying the next. Of course, Verstappen may be the same, but I worry it'll be too soon for him (bit like Grosjean) and he'd be better off spending a couple more years out of the limelight.

    However, worth saying Kvyat really hit the ground running. Sauber kept Sirotkin out this year, largely due to age, I think (he's around Kvyat's age, maybe a little younger).
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.
    I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.

    Based on personal experience??
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
    He is up there making a chump of himself
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
    He is up there making a chump of himself
    how would you know? Stalking him, are we? ;-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    edited August 2014
    Financier said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    And your evidence for that statement??
    As if I would tell an idiot like you, I am sure litigation would follow.

    PS: if you are as smart as you claim you should be able to find out, look for loonies that have recently appeared on the scene in Scotland.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. G, I just cannot see a currency union being conceded. It'd be political suicide. It's practically the only realistic issue that would lose the blues my vote next time around, and if that meant Balls retaining his seat, so be it.

    I do hope No wins, but it'd be useful to have a holodeck to see how a Yes negotiation would go.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
    He is up there making a chump of himself
    how would you know? Stalking him, are we? ;-)
    Just enjoying the fake making a turnip of himself again
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I just cannot see a currency union being conceded. It'd be political suicide. It's practically the only realistic issue that would lose the blues my vote next time around, and if that meant Balls retaining his seat, so be it.

    I do hope No wins, but it'd be useful to have a holodeck to see how a Yes negotiation would go.

    MD, I doubt that your inclinations will concern them much in the grand scheme of things though. As you will know it is a handful of seats that decide the election, they can contain any displeasure easily if it suits them, and if Balls is in the negotiating team , why would you vote for him.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    malcolmg said:

    Financier said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    And your evidence for that statement??
    As if I would tell an idiot like you, I am sure litigation would follow.

    PS: if you are as smart as you claim you should be able to find out, look for loonies that have recently appeared on the scene in Scotland.
    None so loony as those that fantasize about people's identities.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Financier said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.
    I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.

    Based on personal experience??
    No, thank God.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.

    More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.

    I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Might it be interesting to have a thread in which we compared notes on how much activity (and what kind) we were encountered from different parties? My impression from chatting to colleagues is that all the action is in the Con and LibDem marginals, and despite the official 40-40 strategy, actually the Tories are not trying very hard in the Labour marginals. But I have an obviously biased sample (Labour candidates!) and it'd be intriguing to hear from others. Are you getting leaflets from anyone? Phone calls? Direct mail? Canvassers?

    The Ashcroft marginal polls suggested that typically about 20% were hearing from each of the main contenders, though I think the form of contact is varying a lot. A friend in one of the marginals in Ealing tells me he's not heard from anyone at all for yonks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.

    More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.

    I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, blasphemy! The Word of Morris is whispered on the wind of Westminster to those brokers of power and political elites.

    More seriously, the vast majority in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are against a currency union. The political parties have all denounced it. The next election's forecast to be very tight and backtracking on that would be a great way to lose support. Plus, UKIP's lurking in the background, ready and willing to hoover up protest votes.

    I wouldn't vote for Balls. I'd spoil my ballot, or vote for a party which opposed currency union. Or maybe not turn out, but I dislike that option.

    MD, if you have no other option other than Kipper at best, what to do. You will have been given all the good reasons why it had to be done , so most people will be just BAU as all will have been involved in the dirty deed.
    If not you will have more to worry you and will be voting Kipper anyway.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. G, BAU?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Posted by KW for JackW

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 5th August Projection) :

    Con 314 (+2) .. Lab 273 (-3) .. LibDem 32 (+2) .. SNP 8 (-1) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 1 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
    Labour 53 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold

    Changes From 5th August - Bury North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    .......................................................................................

    Posted by KW for JackW
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, BAU?

    Vote as they normally do
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,698
    I suspect the public are against anything that seems to involve bankers.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
    Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Miss DiCanio, ah, I'd forgotten that, but you're right.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The sort of corruption and malfeasance that UKIP will be investigating and rooting out.

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 25m
    Homer’s Odyssey: http://bit.ly/1o8yuJ8
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    @Morris_Dancer

    BAU = Business As Usual.
    Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Barber, ah, cheers. I do loathe certain modern terms. Work-life balance might be the single worst.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    Financier said:

    Innocent_Abroad said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, didn't Schumacher marry Verstappen's ex?

    Edited extra bit: might have been Frentzen[sp]. My memory of F1 before the last few years is atrocious.

    It was Heinz-Harald Frentzen's girlfriend.
    I had always suspected that sports groupies weren't proper females.

    Based on personal experience??
    No, thank God.

    Might have been an interesting addition to your not-for-publication cv.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Barber, ah, cheers. I do loathe certain modern terms. Work-life balance might be the single worst.

    I don't like how work supposedly comes first.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
    Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.
    The Poond Scots, worth 5p.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
    Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.
    You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.

    http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    DaemonBarber said:

    @Morris_Dancer

    BAU = Business As Usual.
    Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.

    My apologies for using it Mr Barber
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
    Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.
    You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.

    Sorry, I should have said "I should have read the story better". What I had was a tad rude.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    MikeK said:

    Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.

    http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/

    Excellent.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    ...and what is it that rUK MUST concede to Salmond?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    NickPalmer said:

    Might it be interesting to have a thread in which we compared notes on how much activity (and what kind) we were encountered from different parties? My impression from chatting to colleagues is that all the action is in the Con and LibDem marginals, and despite the official 40-40 strategy, actually the Tories are not trying very hard in the Labour marginals. But I have an obviously biased sample (Labour candidates!) and it'd be intriguing to hear from others. Are you getting leaflets from anyone? Phone calls? Direct mail? Canvassers?

    The Ashcroft marginal polls suggested that typically about 20% were hearing from each of the main contenders, though I think the form of contact is varying a lot. A friend in one of the marginals in Ealing tells me he's not heard from anyone at all for yonks.

    Nick

    Too much going on at the moment both nationally and internationally and too many things undecided by each of the parties.

    Expect things to ramp up a bit after the Ref and the party conferences - but events like an ISIS bombing in the UK or causing a similar event to 9/11 would change the electoral climate.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    malcolmg said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    @Morris_Dancer

    BAU = Business As Usual.
    Another vile business-speak buzzword that has infiltrated our lexicon.

    My apologies for using it Mr Barber
    No worries... Having worked for large corporations you get used to it and it becomes "normal".

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Many thanks to KW for keeping us up to date with Jack's projections. Looks plausible enough, although there's still lots of uncertainty.

    On topic: I hate to sound ungrateful to Lord Ashcroft's generosity in providing these polls for us, but I'm still unsure whether marginals polls actually tell us anything very useful. Applying UNS and the current national polling figures, all these seats would fall to Labour. I expect Lord A's marginals polls will show much the same. Only if the sample sizes were big enough, and the polls frequent enough, and the sampling reliable enough, to distinguish differential swing in different seats would the marginals polls tell us much more than this. It's not clear to me that these conditions are in fact met.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. G, I'm not so sure.

    Every party is marked by lukewarm support. Nobody gets enthusiastic about Cameron or Miliband, except in that the other might be worse, and Clegg's even less popular.

    The public are against it and the parties have promised it won't happen. A u-turn would not break trust, it would confirm none of them are worthy of it. I cannot see it happening.

    Even without the democratic aspect, the economic arguments against it (why should English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayers stand behind Scottish financial institutions?) are significant.

    Salmond said he would view CU as just a stopgap in any case, which undermines the whole thing from the start. He'd break any agreement at the drop of a hat, so there is no point in negotiating with him.
    Yeah, why bother with all the hassle in setting up a CU in the first place?
    Oops, should have read the story better, he said using Sterling without a CU could be a viable stop-gap measure. He didn't elaborate on what would follow, however.
    You're right. However this man has made a profession of trying to wreck unions , so there's no reason to think he'd respect a currency union.

    Sorry, I should have said "I should have read the story better". What I had was a tad rude.
    You weren't in the least bit rude.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Morris_Dancer said:

    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.

    At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Nabavi, sounds like an executive spy.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Morris_Dancer said:

    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.

    LOL.

    I hate the trend for companies calling themselves "Solutions". Saw a van the other day with Confectionery Delivery Solutions painted on the side, parked outside of a newsagent's.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    Deflation alert?

    Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    ...and what is it that rUK MUST concede to Salmond?
    everything he said we would because he wants it, and he says it's in our interest even though it isn't.

    The man's deluded.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Barber, I guess it's meant to sound positive and, quite literally, like the answer to problems a customer might have.

    But it's so over-used it just sounds a bit rubbish.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.

    At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.
    Are there any Operating Operatives around? On reflection, maybe a surgeon or two?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    Cost of living not increasing crisis.

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    No matter the figure you would spin it as bad. Remember these halcyon days after 3 years of a Milliband spend spend spend government.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Closing in on Mayor Lutfor of Tower Hamlets.

    http://lovewapping.org/2014/08/tower-hamlets-elections-details-allegations-mayor-lutfur-high-court-petitioners/

    Excellent.
    My mum used to work in th council. As I posted on here, but the post was deleted, this won't come as a surprise to anyone
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ground campaign intelligence:

    A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.

    First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.

    Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.

    The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    I agree with that, the day after a yes would be a whole new reality and nobody would be constrained by things they said before the referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    1.6% -petrol is down. The strong pound helping keep inflation low
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Ground campaign intelligence:

    A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.

    First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.

    Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.

    The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.

    Our man on the spot in Uppsala.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.

    At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.
    Sounds like one of those titles they give to those specialising in Industrial espionage.

    Were you issued a dark suit and a PPK…?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Dickson, that's not necessarily the case. There are two perfectly valid scenarios:
    1) Yes wins. Labour in Scotland doesn't cease to exist.
    2) Yes loses. Labour in Scotland doesn't cease to exist.

    Either way, it makes sense to ask the question.

    Miss DiCanio, it's quite selfless of Sven Dicksson to keep his finger on the pulse of those saucy Swedish ladies for us.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    edited August 2014
    MaxPB said:

    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    Deflation alert?

    Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
    It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

    A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Ground campaign intelligence:

    A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.

    First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.

    Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.

    The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.

    Our man on the spot in Uppsala.
    I'm afraid we're at that point where leaves blowing in the autumn breeze will be ascribed a special significance.

    30 days of boring bollocks to go. Where's the fast forward button ?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited August 2014
    edmundintokyo said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    It is, of course, inevitable that a post-YES negotiation will become an England vs Scotland game. No doubt we'd all hope they'll seek win/win outcomes. But some issues (currency, debt, Trident, EU, etc) don't lend themselves to win/win - especially given the extent to which both sides have already painted themselves into corners. IMHO it would rapidly become a hard zero-sum gain negotiation with the English side ever mindful of the political impact in England of whatever they concede.

    Patrick, reality is both will need to give, each have things the other side MUST have.
    Reality will trump any political opinion , it will be a cross party team doing the giving so that they can all claim to be clean. Question will be how do they handle the kippers who have no MP's without giving them an open goal.
    I agree with that, the day after a yes would be a whole new reality and nobody would be constrained by things they said before the referendum.
    It's a shame we'll never get the opportunity to fully enjoy the utter absurdity of your theory.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Ground campaign intelligence:

    A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.

    First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.

    Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.

    The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.

    No. That sounds like a computer generated phone script that produces questions in line with previous answers.

    Clearly you have never been involved in canvassing.


  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    SimonStClare said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    When applying to universities we had to write down any job we might have. A friend of mine was a barman, and described it as 'beverage dispensing technician'.

    At one point in my careeer my official job title was 'Corporate Operative'.
    Sounds like one of those titles they give to those specialising in Industrial espionage.

    Were you issued a dark suit and a PPK…?

    Surely that would be more of an import/export guy than a corporate drone?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,698
    Doesn't BAU = SNAFU?

    In politics, anyway!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BenM said:

    MaxPB said:

    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    Deflation alert?

    Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
    It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

    A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.
    As someone who has little time for Osborne, even I wouldn't call that bit of good news bad.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    This one made me chuckle...
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/my-vile-britnat-assault-ordeal/#more-59931

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,698
    edited August 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    1.6% -petrol is down. The strong pound helping keep inflation low

    Funnily enough it’s weakening against the Thai Baht.
    There are those on pb to whom this is important!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
    He is up there making a chump of himself
    how would you know? Stalking him, are we? ;-)
    Just enjoying the fake making a turnip of himself again
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    KW posting for JackW

    New 2015 ARSE general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

    Excuse me for being an ignoramus, but who is KW?
    An alias for jack whilst he is busy in Scotland
    Well, given that KW has only posted about the projections, I doubt it.
    He is up there making a chump of himself
    how would you know? Stalking him, are we? ;-)
    Just enjoying the fake making a turnip of himself again
    What a thick mindless crass idiot you are.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Alanbrooke said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Ground campaign intelligence:

    A Yes supporter just got phone canvassed by Scottish Labour.

    First, they asked him how he intended to vote in the IndyRef. He replied: Yes.

    Then, fascinatingly, they asked if he intended to vote Labour in the first GE to the independent Scottish parliament.

    The Scottish Labour Party are making pragmatic preparations for independence. You heard it here first.

    Our man on the spot in Uppsala.
    I'm afraid we're at that point where leaves blowing in the autumn breeze will be ascribed a special significance.

    30 days of boring bollocks to go. Where's the fast forward button ?
    60:40. Next.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited August 2014
    OldKingCole said:

    Doesn't BAU = SNAFU?

    In politics, anyway!

    SNAFU - I have time for that one - It's a military term rather than business-speak. But please use the correct F or STFU ;-)
    FUBAR is another favourite.

    (working in Software Development and Support, I hear these 2 a lot)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    King Cole, but is it strong against the Vietnamese dong?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,037
    BenM said:

    MaxPB said:

    BenM said:

    Deflation alert as CPI falls to 1.6%.

    Neo-liberals pushing for an interest rate rise confounded again.

    Deflation alert?

    Alarmist much! Surely this is a good thing for people struggling with the cost of living.
    It's quite something that Osborne has managed to engineer a cost of living crisis with inflation crashing through the floor.

    A clear example of Osborne's glaring incompetence. Still, he'll be out of office soon.
    So your preference is for higher wages and higher unemployment? I had no idea that you are a Tory!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    As I've been saying for a while, I don't think interest rates are going to be increased anytime soon. The latest inflation figures provide additional evidence for that view. With the Eurozone flirting with outright deflation, the pound strong, and world commodity prices subdued, steady as she goes would seem to be the appropriate policy.

    Note also: RPI 2.5%, and house prices easing off a smidgen.
This discussion has been closed.