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How those saying Green 6 months before an election actually voted – politicalbetting.com
How those saying Green 6 months before an election actually voted – politicalbetting.com
Thanks to leading political academic, Paula Sturridge, for highlighting this – what those who told pollsters six months before an election actually did on the day.
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In Los Angeles, if you want to go to a public school (and are aged 12 and up), Covid vaccinations are compulsory. And they do this, because they'd rather have everyone jabbed than to have schooling be interrupted by constant people testing positive, and then them having to have homeschooling, and that disruption.
It's a fine balance.
That's - "of people saying they were going to vote Green, how many actually voted Green?"
It's an interesting measure of the extent to which the Greens are squeezed in an FPTP election.
They had to cancel because three of them got Covid.
Hardly their fault, but that means we’re looking at late November before ours can be jabbed.
The one saving grace is around 50% of them have already had it so HI must be close.
https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1451543776992845834
Basically there are too many containers and because only the owners can move their containers the blockage is hard to fix.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1451198943530913793?t=k4EubG-fYe3UGudImSXYRQ&s=19
Not just greenies but various leftists, lots of students and even some WASPI women.
It also seems like that is a stronger driving factor than whether an election is close. For example, in 2015, which was thought to be close, Greens stuck with the Greens. In 2017, when people thought May would win a big majority, they went to Labour regardless.
If point 1 is right, then I don’t think Mike’s assumption at the end of right. Starmer is unlikely to enthuse the Greens to switch to Labour.
Which is still a significant 2-3% of the total vote, and not to be sneezed at.
Well, at least 100% of them seem to have voted, which must be a better record than for most parties.
Hopefully other container ports around the world are taking notice.
Nor can I say "its a waste of your vote" - people absolutely should vote for whoever they actually support. Makes a change from voting against the people you fear the most.
Of course in most general elections except 2015 most of the UKIP vote went back to the Conservatives on polling day, as was also the case for the Brexit Party vote in 2019. However that did not necessarily help the Conservatives if they could not also win over voters in the centre eg in 2015 the Conservatives won a majority they failed to achieve in 2010 or 2017 despite UKIP getting 12% of the vote and their highest ever voteshare as Cameron won swing voters in the middle
Had she won in 2016 she could of course in an alternative universe be in the White House at this moment serving her second term
However, if you look at the chart split for the LDs in particular, there is not much difference for 2015, 2017 and 2019. You would have thought if Greens voted primarily to keep Tories out, then there would have been more fluctuation.
Which does lend credence to the view that it was Corbyn that enthused Green voters to switch to Labour.
If that’s right, Labour’s position could actually be worse than suggested. Because it implies Labour lost underlying voters in 2019 and only did as well as it did because many Greens defected. SKS may not attract back those voters while not attracting Greens - which may cause him big problems.
No for 2017.
To kick off this evening's ramblings, an interesting NZ perspective on the NZ-UK FTA:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126758914/nzuk-trade-deal-new-zealand-pushed-back-on-british-contractors-entering-the-country
I have the luxury of being able to vote for anyone I please.
Secure in the certainty that the Tory will get in.
I only know of the Latin comes stabuli etymology for Constable, but am intrigued by the Conné Table idea. Sadly I haven't been able to find anything to support it either.
The fact that the verb connaître has past participle connu, and doesn't conjugate to conné anywhere, makes me slightly sceptical of it, but that's not necessarily a problem - the Latin etymology changes m to nn and drops the s!
I noticed from my quick searches that Connétable seems to still be an official position (elected parish head) in the Channel Islands, and a Brittany brand of sardines.
Of course on current numbers that could be a big effect, though I think a fair number indicating Green at present are Corbynites in exile unlikely to back Starmer.
Worth noting too that Greens in 2017 and 2019 were strongly pro second EU referendum, so might have been hooked back in when Labour adopted that as policy in the autumn 2019.
In all these things past performance doesn't indicate future performance. Incidentally I voted Green in 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
and 2015-17
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
but around 5% before 2015:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
which is logical - Greens coming over even before the tactical vote squeeze, because of Corbyn.
Also and sort of on topic, there was a Green Party PPB on just before. Cant see the point of those so far from an election, even with COP26 coming up.
Also, thanks to the Holyrood system, there are different dynamics in Scotland. Though in a FPTP election that difference in dynamics will tend to be suppressed.
National rail use has improved to between 60-70% of pre-Covid numbers. On the London Underground, 55-60% during the week but 70-75% at the weekend confirming the return of leisure traffic but a continued malaise in weekday commuter traffic.
I read earlier in the week a poll showing 50% of working adults were back to normal working (full time attendance at the place of work), 25% were still WFH full time and 25% had adopted a hybrid pattern of between 1-3 days in the office per week. The rail and tube numbers support this to some extent.
I'm going into an office environment (rented space as we gave up our previous office) one day per week on average. Some other colleagues are doing 3 days - only one person is doing 5 days. The coming of autumn and winter seems to be re-strengthening the desire to WFH more - oddly enough, the increased traffic (car levels at 90% of pre-Covid but light commercial and HGV volumes running at 115-125% of pre-Covid) and problems on the M25 are again persuading people of the benefit of home working.
It's the variability - a colleague driving the M25 from near Heathrow to Reigate has told me the journey can take anywhere between 45 minutes and 3 hours depending on traffic and problems. She was due to set off from Reigate at 4pm and the journey planners were even then suggesting it would take nearly two hours for her to get home.
Refusing vaccination during a pandemic is morally equivalent to shouting "fire" in a crowded theatre, IMO. It's not a case of protecting the unvaccinated: it's a case of protecting all of us.
I may be wrong of course.
I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about the fact that the Greens are overtaking the LibDems in some polls. Insofar as the LibDem vote is a "plague on both your houses" vote rather than a vote for their policies, they may be at risk of being displaced as the third party nationally. They could really do with a deal giving them a clear run in Blue Wall seats in exchange for some middle-class lomdon seats where the Greens could do very well.
I wonder what would happen if Corbyn was denied a Labour seat and joined the Greens?
So the propensity for intending Greens to actually vote Green fell from 50% to 20% in 5 years.
Does this support my contention that, because the mainstream parties have now eaten most of their lunch and are more attractive in Green terms, the Green Party itself is now irrelevant?
Another impact of the bacon sandwich on Green vegetarians?
Better French polling for Marine Le Pen this evening - she holds a comfortable second even if Zemmour runs and irrespective of the LR candidate.
Zemmour polls at 13% and among the LR possibles, Bertrand would poll 12% and both Barnier and Pecresse would manage a derisory 8% finishing fifth behind Melanchon.
The trouble for LR is if Zemmour doesn't run, it doesn't help - Opinion Way did a poll with Bertrand as LR candidate and no Zemmour candidacy and it ended a 26-26 tie between Macron and Le Pen with Bertrand on 13%.
Macron then won the run off 58-42 which is obviously nowhere as convincing as 2017 but it's still a clear win.
At the moment, LR and the Socialists look trapped between the Le Pen rock and the Zemmour hard place.
Paging @Leon
New Apple TV series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlaHxL3mHAU
You may think religions bs, but the alternative to tolerance of religious beliefs is burnings at the stake and planes flying into tall buildings.
However don't forget the legislative elections are also next Spring and it is Les Republicains with the second highest number of seats in the Assemblee Nationale, not Le Pen's party and LR having performed well in local elections will aim to beat Macron's En Marche in the legislature even if they fail to win the presidency
This explains why.
Now I'd be quite happy for a transfer of wealth from private renters to subsidise my energy bills.
But I don't see how it helps the environment or improves socioeconomic equality.
Multi-ethnic cast - tick.
Obligatory Chinese cast member - tick.
But 'foreign' scenes to show this effects the world - i.e. London or Paris (because they think most Americans will only recognise Tower Bridge or the Eiffel Tower) - tick.
Yet soldiers are always US - tick.
And most plot is based in the US - tick.
Hints of dark secrets - tick.
Great special effects - tick.
No hint of effective storyline - tick.
Seen it all before - tick.
edit: i.e. it is a loan word from Swedish like many others, unsurprisingly.
Me neither so why aren't there any ?
Bulgaria is a fascinating contrast with most other European countries with its minimal level of vaccination and allows comparison with previous waves of covid:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bulgaria/
Bulgaria currently has the UK equivalent of over 66k in hospital (the UK maxed at 39k last January) with 8k newly hospitalised yesterday:
https://coronavirus.bg/bg/
A storm is coming.
I will be fascinated to see if there is any sign of a Conservative revival in the East London Labour heartland in next year's local election. A couple of by-elections had a strong Conservative vote - 30% in East Ham Central in May and a strong Conservative performance in Weavers in Tower Hamlets and Shaun Bailey won the Custom House Ward in the Mayoral election.
May be something, may be nothing - the swing against Stephen Timms in December 2019 was 4.8% and to be honest that won't even dent Labour's majority. In 2018, Labour won Custom House by 57 points (72-15) - in May Bailey won by two points (38-36).
A 29.5% swing replicated across Newham would see (on my rough calculations) Labour win 33 seats and the Conservatives 27 which just goes to show how strong the Labour stranglehold is.
And yet they're not, it seems.
I'm sure that some of that is Scotland, but it's not the only factor. Would the Greens want him? 2017 Jez would have been attractive, and quite a coup, but 2021 Jez has various bits of baggage...
If the Greens really breakthrough in the polling, and they seem to be doing so, then the best comparison may not be the Greens of the past but UKIP of 2015. They went from 3.1% to 12.6% in one leap despite many people assuming they'd fall back.
In GEs, the Green vote stays very strong in Caroline Lucas's safe seat (Pavilion). But it collapses in the other two Brighton seats (Hove and Kemptown); . Both of these were historically Conservative seats; they are now solid Labour. Partly due to enough Greens voting Labour to make sure that the Tories have no chance of re-taking them. In 2017, the Greens stood down in Kemptown, but they ran again in 2019 and got only 4.6%, despite scoring about five times that amount in council elections. Similarly, in Hove the Greens only got 4.4%. It's absolutely clear that a lot of Greens are voting Labour to keep the Tories out.
I'd also add that the Labour candidate doesn't seem to make much difference - there's a Corbynite in Kemptown (Russell-Moyle), and a centrist in Hove (Peter Kyle). The Greens don't seem to distinguish between them. They just don't want a Tory MP these days.
Well, the runes are here now and they're very clear.
IIRC the only other parties who have had councillors in Newham this century have been Respect and the Christians.
There's a massive swing from Green in 2015 to Lab in 2017 and 2019.
Perhaps voters are getting cannier?
And if so is that because people cannot afford housing or because people don't want housing built or both ?
The question is whether LR can find support elsewhere to form a Government.
This is also the root for the (or a?) Welsh word for beer, cwrw
And, it seems the Irish coirm and Scots Gaelic cuirm
"Constable" is still an office in certain parts of the Church of England, with the position going back nearly 1000 years. CofE tradition often acts as a lens onto older offices and language, often for example parish boundaries still follow medieval boundaries.
There are several Cathedrals (eg York Minster) that have Cathedral Constabularies, who are responsible for security in the Cathedral and its precincts (another similar word), and specifically night watch. In York Minster it dates back to 1109.
I also know of one Cathedral with a (hopefully unused now) prison cell - Durham. But there must be others.
The Churchwarden of a normal parish church is also a constable (not sure how formal the title is) in that they have an extant power of arrest for offences committed in the church / churhyard. Ecclesiastical Jurisdiction Act iirc.
One more. In one British translation of the Bible - I think the New English Bible from around 1950-60 - the word "Constable" is used in a parable about settling disputes. Also one American version from the 1970s - the New American Standard Bible, Luke 12:58:
For while you are going with your opponent to appear before the magistrate, on your way there make an effort to settle with him, in order that he may not drag you before the judge, and the judge turn you over to the constable, and the constable throw you into prison.
To me in an English context, that has a feel of the Constable being the official responsible for the local prison cell in the village centre. Other version use "Officer".
OF course we also used to have the "Parish Constable" in the parish tier of local government, and before that when ecclesiastical parishes had a role in government.
Refs:
https://pathways.churchofengland.org/job/pathways/2354/cathedral-constable-liverpool-cathedral
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cathedral_constable
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/York_Minster_Police
https://biblehub.com/luke/12-58.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_English_Bible
York Minster Police:
People who own housing but don't want new housing built near them tend to go LD and to a lesser extent Green, that is mainly in the Home Counties and the South outside London
It's very easy to imagine a situation where the Conservatives have unambiguously lost, and are Boris (or Rishi, or Lizzie) Nomates, but where they still have the most seats, and maybe the most votes as well.
2010 worked, partly because the Conservatives were looking to their left anyway, and partly because Cam and Clegg were substantial human beings.
Hard to see anyone, in any party, with that degree of stature right now.
On a 14.5% swing, Labour would still win all 60 seats - I'm just interested to see if there is any hint of a Conservative revival in this most solid of Labour areas. To keep on topic the Greens came third with 5.5% - in 2018, they polled 5.2% across the Borough so they don't look to be making sweeping progress at this time. There's one Ward where they are second to Labour but they trail 67-20 on 2018 numbers.
I know some landlords who have actively avoided Newham for investment for a long time, as the regulation there was such a f*ckup in the early years after the 2005(ish) Act. No idea if it is still in such a mess.