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Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    BREAKING: The former head of the covid vaccine programme, Emily Lawson, is returning from her new job at No10 to take charge again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526
    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
    It's fundamentally a libertarian issue. If the government would just let us but the drugs we want to buy including barbiturates, we could sort ourselves out.
    Interesting point you raise here. What's the difference between suicide and an assisted death? I guess it revolves around "needs assistance" - but I can imagine this is not that easy to formulate into a test/question with a binary yes/no result.
    Anything you can legally do, you should be able to ask somebody else for assistance to do, or pay somebody to help you do it.

    I would frame this as 'Assisted Suicide' which I think is both accurate and descriptive.
    Ok, but to test that. If I help a friend who is physically healthy but depressed to take his own life, you don't think that should be legal (for me), do you?
    I do, with safeguards.

    I don't think he should be able to call you up drunk and depressed one night and you go over and stab him to put him out of his misery.

    But if he were to certify that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind - then a month or two apart give a second certification that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind, then I think his wishes should be respected.
    Can a physically healthy person who wants to kill themselves be of sound mind? That's quite an interesting question. Otherwise, if he was up to going through 2 formal psychological assessments, months apart, he would most likely be up to doing the deed himself, I'd have thought. So, in practice, we're probably more in the realms of a spur-of-the-moment situation or "help" as in encouragement. "Yeah, do it, mate. Why the fuck not." This sort of thing. Or maybe more active than that. I believe this is (potentially) a criminal offence atm and I don't think I'd wish to change that.
    Yes. Severe depression is absolutely not correlated with lack of rationality.
    If all is black, to end it might be rational? Yes, I can see that. And rationality is a feature of a sound mind. So, going on -

    - Can a sound mind think irrationally sometimes?
    - Can an unsound mind think rationally sometimes?

    Number 1 is easy (I think). It's Yes. Number 2 is not so easy to answer, but I think it's also Yes.
    I'd agree. IMV rationality and irrationality are not binary, but a spectrum that varies in an individual over time. Spock was a caricature of 'perfect' rationality, and his alienness / otherworldliness shows that perfect rationality is an alien concept to us.
    Sci-fi metahphors are great
    It is a pleasing fact of life that "metaphor" is a metaphor. In Greece you will see lorries with metaphorai written on them, meaning house moves.
    I remember when Stephen Jay Gould the evolutionist visited Greece at a time when the rate of microevolution was a hot topic of debate (some of us may remember 'punctuated equilibria'). He was overjoyed to discover that the local bus stops were all labelled 'Stasis'. And apparently that airport trolleys are also called metaphors.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035

    Fabulous thread Fishing.

    Given that oppositions have won only 3 of the last 11 elections, yet the average polling position during this same period is for a 2-3 point opposition lead - it does make me wonder how some people, including many thread writers here, managed to square this with their constant exhortations that a mid term government with a 5 point lead is somehow in trouble.

    I quite agree. And the effect is even more pronounced in government and leader ratings. Average government approval rating over the last 44 years is -30%, and PM approval is -22%. That puts Opinium's -13% for the PM into persepective.

    Though as usual we should add that mid-term polls mean the cube root of bugger all in predicting the next election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    For PB Barry fans...


    Rachel Wearmouth
    @REWearmouth
    ·
    3h
    Have to hand it to
    @BarryGardiner
    & his team for building such a strong campaign around ending fire and rehire

    They have worked cross-party & even if the Bill is voted down (as looks likely), the govt is under real pressure to act
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,526

    Carnyx said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    BigRich said:

    I have just listened to Rachel's speech at Conference. She has a fairly deep voice for a woman, certainly in comparison to her rivals such as Rosena and Lisa, who have more traditionally feminine-sounding voices.

    So what? Reeves tone is quite calming to my ear and gives her gravitas. I'm not sure it's the dealbreaker the Corbyino-PBTories wish it was.

    IIRC Mrs Thatcher had quite a deep voice, seemed to work for her.
    Thatcher infamously got vocal couching.
    Was she lying on a sofa at the time?
    How are we expected to divan the answer? Through our sheer collective intellect.
    It helped to deal with her armchair critics
    And pouffe! They were defeated.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,035
    Stocky said:

    Re header, won't the timing of the boundary changes affect the decision?

    As I right in thinking that May 2023 less likely and Dec 23 or May 24 more likely?

    Probably, but I can't help thinking that the overwhelming factor is the government's position in the opinion polls. If they're far behind, they'll wait until Dec 24, as Major did in 97 and Brown in 2010. If they're hugely ahead in mid-23 it's just about possible they'll go then. But if they're somewhere in between, it'll be May 2024 I should think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,539
    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    NHS in this area getting its skates on.

    Having had an MRI scan today, I now have a date for the Pre-op on Nov 2nd, and Op on 17 Nov.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Seems like the polling average is now a very narrow Tory lead and they are now vulnerable to slipping behind.

    Extra £1000 on Labour lead went on today.

    Do you mean on Smarkets? A grand on a lead by 2/11 is 'brave'.

    Although I'm only seeing £1430 matched on that entire market to-date so what do you mean by Extra £1000?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,133
    49k new cases today (and contrary to MaxPB's confident assertion yesterday, the specimen case rate continues to rise week on week), and over 1k daily admissions to hospital now across UK.

    Pretty bad news I would say, but looks largely driven by England and Wales (to a lesser extent). Scotland and NI don't seem to be seeing growth in cases quite as quickly.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    Marine Le Pen holds a meeting with the Polish PM as they plot against the EU Commission
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1451571173658136583?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
    It's fundamentally a libertarian issue. If the government would just let us but the drugs we want to buy including barbiturates, we could sort ourselves out.
    Interesting point you raise here. What's the difference between suicide and an assisted death? I guess it revolves around "needs assistance" - but I can imagine this is not that easy to formulate into a test/question with a binary yes/no result.
    Anything you can legally do, you should be able to ask somebody else for assistance to do, or pay somebody to help you do it.

    I would frame this as 'Assisted Suicide' which I think is both accurate and descriptive.
    Ok, but to test that. If I help a friend who is physically healthy but depressed to take his own life, you don't think that should be legal (for me), do you?
    I do, with safeguards.

    I don't think he should be able to call you up drunk and depressed one night and you go over and stab him to put him out of his misery.

    But if he were to certify that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind - then a month or two apart give a second certification that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind, then I think his wishes should be respected.
    Can a physically healthy person who wants to kill themselves be of sound mind? That's quite an interesting question. Otherwise, if he was up to going through 2 formal psychological assessments, months apart, he would most likely be up to doing the deed himself, I'd have thought. So, in practice, we're probably more in the realms of a spur-of-the-moment situation or "help" as in encouragement. "Yeah, do it, mate. Why the fuck not." This sort of thing. Or maybe more active than that. I believe this is (potentially) a criminal offence atm and I don't think I'd wish to change that.
    Yes. Severe depression is absolutely not correlated with lack of rationality.
    If all is black, to end it might be rational? Yes, I can see that. And rationality is a feature of a sound mind. So, going on -

    - Can a sound mind think irrationally sometimes?
    - Can an unsound mind think rationally sometimes?

    Number 1 is easy (I think). It's Yes. Number 2 is not so easy to answer, but I think it's also Yes.
    I'd agree. IMV rationality and irrationality are not binary, but a spectrum that varies in an individual over time. Spock was a caricature of 'perfect' rationality, and his alienness / otherworldliness shows that perfect rationality is an alien concept to us.
    Sci-fi metahphors are great
    It is a pleasing fact of life that "metaphor" is a metaphor. In Greece you will see lorries with metaphorai written on them, meaning house moves.
    I remember when Stephen Jay Gould the evolutionist visited Greece at a time when the rate of microevolution was a hot topic of debate (some of us may remember 'punctuated equilibria'). He was overjoyed to discover that the local bus stops were all labelled 'Stasis'. And apparently that airport trolleys are also called metaphors.
    Poor old SJG, himself a victim of overextended metaphors. Darwin was Newton, there must be evolutionary theories of relativity out there and he was jolly well going to find them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    Whose forecast is that btw?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: The former head of the covid vaccine programme, Emily Lawson, is returning from her new job at No10 to take charge again.

    Quite clearly her moving and Zahawi going was an error. This virus bites back whenever anyone has the hubris to think it is beaten.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    "Labour's instincts over masks are out of step with the people it needs to attract
    The Left seem to relish the imposition of rules and regulations to control citizens’ behaviour
    Tom Harris"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/22/labours-instincts-masks-step-people-needs-attract/
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    https://mobile.twitter.com/WillForster/status/1451487199082450944

    I’m relieved that no one was hurt when panels fell of the Hilton hotel in #Woking on Wednesday. The road closure of Victoria Way will continue until the authorities can be fully satisfied that there is no further risk of other panels falling.

    A new cladding scandal in the making.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: The former head of the covid vaccine programme, Emily Lawson, is returning from her new job at No10 to take charge again.

    Quite clearly her moving and Zahawi going was an error. This virus bites back whenever anyone has the hubris to think it is beaten.
    Good that they're getting to grips with it now before winter.

    The JCVI f***ed the country over putting politics before science. Hancock was weak for not forcing them into an answer and Boris was weak for letting Hancock not deal with it. Thank goodness that Javid is getting a grip on things and forced the JCVI into an answer even if they still messed around with the politics.

    We've got a limited window now to get boosters done. A much smaller window than it could have been. Once the over 50s are all done the booster program should IMHO be extended to everyone of any age past three months instead of just over 50s past six months. Get maximum protection going into winter.

    And anyone whinging about the rest of the world can go f##k themselves. Put your own oxygen mask on first, that's the rule.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 979
    edited October 22
    Given it's Friday evening, thought I'd have a look at booze (from Middle English bousen, to drink, which came from Middle Dutch buysen, to drink heavily, and before that from Proto-Germanic beuzą, one of their terms for beer)

    I'll start with beer, which joined us - unsurprisingly - from German bier. The origin for bier is apparently much disputed, and hard to trace as it's been used for about 1400 years. I'm happy to go with the quite common idea that it was borrowed by West Germanic 6C monks from Vulgar Latin biber, a drink, from Latin bibere to drink.

    If you fancy a lager, you might want to give it a while. Again from German, but not at all disputed, lagerbier is literally storehouse beer, or beer to be laid down. Lager for storehouse, comes from the same Proto-Indo-European root that we get the verb 'to lay' from.

    Ale, guess what, comes from Germany! Much longer ago, as ealu the Old English word shows. It is derived from Proto-Germanic aluth another word for beer. This may have a more interesting root , as it might be from Proto-Indo-European alu- which indicates magic, sorcery and intoxication.

    Prost!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,012
    Fun fact I’ve just discovered - the Duty Free allowance coming to the UK is now 4l of booze >22%…
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's instincts over masks are out of step with the people it needs to attract
    The Left seem to relish the imposition of rules and regulations to control citizens’ behaviour
    Tom Harris"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/22/labours-instincts-masks-step-people-needs-attract/

    Labour does not have instincts about masks because they are NOT A LEFT RIGHT ISSUE, do you hear me?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's instincts over masks are out of step with the people it needs to attract
    The Left seem to relish the imposition of rules and regulations to control citizens’ behaviour
    Tom Harris"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/22/labours-instincts-masks-step-people-needs-attract/

    Labour does not have instincts about masks because they are NOT A LEFT RIGHT ISSUE, do you hear me?
    They're an authoritarian/liberal issue though.

    And Labour is always into authoritarian bullshit.

    90 days without charge, ID cards, masks for vaccinated people . . . different story, same old bullshit.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,585
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    kinabalu said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
    It's fundamentally a libertarian issue. If the government would just let us but the drugs we want to buy including barbiturates, we could sort ourselves out.
    Interesting point you raise here. What's the difference between suicide and an assisted death? I guess it revolves around "needs assistance" - but I can imagine this is not that easy to formulate into a test/question with a binary yes/no result.
    Anything you can legally do, you should be able to ask somebody else for assistance to do, or pay somebody to help you do it.

    I would frame this as 'Assisted Suicide' which I think is both accurate and descriptive.
    Ok, but to test that. If I help a friend who is physically healthy but depressed to take his own life, you don't think that should be legal (for me), do you?
    I do, with safeguards.

    I don't think he should be able to call you up drunk and depressed one night and you go over and stab him to put him out of his misery.

    But if he were to certify that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind - then a month or two apart give a second certification that he wishes to die while getting a psychological assessment that he's of sound mind, then I think his wishes should be respected.
    Can a physically healthy person who wants to kill themselves be of sound mind? That's quite an interesting question. Otherwise, if he was up to going through 2 formal psychological assessments, months apart, he would most likely be up to doing the deed himself, I'd have thought. So, in practice, we're probably more in the realms of a spur-of-the-moment situation or "help" as in encouragement. "Yeah, do it, mate. Why the fuck not." This sort of thing. Or maybe more active than that. I believe this is (potentially) a criminal offence atm and I don't think I'd wish to change that.
    Yes. Severe depression is absolutely not correlated with lack of rationality.
    If all is black, to end it might be rational? Yes, I can see that. And rationality is a feature of a sound mind. So, going on -

    - Can a sound mind think irrationally sometimes?
    - Can an unsound mind think rationally sometimes?

    Number 1 is easy (I think). It's Yes. Number 2 is not so easy to answer, but I think it's also Yes.
    I'd agree. IMV rationality and irrationality are not binary, but a spectrum that varies in an individual over time. Spock was a caricature of 'perfect' rationality, and his alienness / otherworldliness shows that perfect rationality is an alien concept to us.
    Sci-fi metahphors are great
    It is a pleasing fact of life that "metaphor" is a metaphor. In Greece you will see lorries with metaphorai written on them, meaning house moves.
    I remember when Stephen Jay Gould the evolutionist visited Greece at a time when the rate of microevolution was a hot topic of debate (some of us may remember 'punctuated equilibria'). He was overjoyed to discover that the local bus stops were all labelled 'Stasis'. And apparently that airport trolleys are also called metaphors.
    And "Exit' is 'Exodos', which we were delighted to see at the Piraeus railway station.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    Given it's Friday evening, thought I'd have a look at booze (from Middle English bousen, to drink, which came from Middle Dutch buysen, to drink heavily, and before that from Proto-Germanic beuzą, one of their terms for beer)

    I'll start with beer, which joined us - unsurprisingly - from German bier. The origin for bier is apparently much disputed, and hard to trace as it's been used for about 1400 years. I'm happy to go with the quite common idea that it was borrowed by West Germanic 6C monks from Vulgar Latin biber, a drink, from Latin bibere to drink.

    If you fancy a lager, you might want to give it a while. Again from German, but not at all disputed, lagerbier is literally storehouse beer, or beer to be laid down. Lager for storehouse, comes from the same Proto-Indo-European root that we get the verb 'to lay' from.

    Ale, guess what, comes from Germany! Much longer ago, as ealu the Old English word shows. It is derived from Proto-Germanic aluth another word for beer. This may have a more interesting root , as it might be from Proto-Indo-European alu- which indicates magic, sorcery and intoxication.

    Prost!

    You left pilsner off
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Cookie said:

    @billybragg
    Was asked why I was wearing a mask this morning while ordering breakfast. Did you see those images of the Commons, I replied, with a bare-faced govt facing the masked opposition? I don’t want anyone in here thinking I’m a Tory
    https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/1451482312797982729

    If the left want to politicise mask-wearing, a) it is regrettable - why must bloody everything be turned into a culture war issue? and b) it will be counter-productive: if you want to associate your side with a particular action, associate it with an action people want to do.
    Yes, it's ridiculous. As it is NOT a left-right issue in any way shape or form.

    The moronic culture warriors piss me right off.
    I like your point - however anyone who's watched BBC Parliament lately knows that, for some reason; it has become a left/right issue.
    So it is a l/r issue after all is what you are saying?

    These things ain't rational, but that's not the same as saying they aren't real.
    It isn't. You just want too make so. But because you want to make it so, doesn't mean it is. Sorry.
    I don't give a flying fuck whether it is left right or centre. I'm just the guy who is telling you the way things are.
    Inaccurately as it happens. As per.
    So all the right say X and all the left say not X, but we have to believe that X is not an l r issue in a sort of spiritual sense because you say so?

    Got it
    Yes, those well-known rightwingers on here, Anabobazina, Stocky and SandyRentool really prove your bloody point don't they?

    Time for you to withdraw on this one, old bean.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767

    Fun fact I’ve just discovered - the Duty Free allowance coming to the UK is now 4l of booze >22%…

    AND 18 litres of wine.

    I feel myself strangely warming to Brexit.
  • Farooq said:

    Given it's Friday evening, thought I'd have a look at booze (from Middle English bousen, to drink, which came from Middle Dutch buysen, to drink heavily, and before that from Proto-Germanic beuzą, one of their terms for beer)

    I'll start with beer, which joined us - unsurprisingly - from German bier. The origin for bier is apparently much disputed, and hard to trace as it's been used for about 1400 years. I'm happy to go with the quite common idea that it was borrowed by West Germanic 6C monks from Vulgar Latin biber, a drink, from Latin bibere to drink.

    If you fancy a lager, you might want to give it a while. Again from German, but not at all disputed, lagerbier is literally storehouse beer, or beer to be laid down. Lager for storehouse, comes from the same Proto-Indo-European root that we get the verb 'to lay' from.

    Ale, guess what, comes from Germany! Much longer ago, as ealu the Old English word shows. It is derived from Proto-Germanic aluth another word for beer. This may have a more interesting root , as it might be from Proto-Indo-European alu- which indicates magic, sorcery and intoxication.

    Prost!

    You left pilsner off
    It's a bit Frankfurter for me! (From Pilsen)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Cookie said:

    @billybragg
    Was asked why I was wearing a mask this morning while ordering breakfast. Did you see those images of the Commons, I replied, with a bare-faced govt facing the masked opposition? I don’t want anyone in here thinking I’m a Tory
    https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/1451482312797982729

    If the left want to politicise mask-wearing, a) it is regrettable - why must bloody everything be turned into a culture war issue? and b) it will be counter-productive: if you want to associate your side with a particular action, associate it with an action people want to do.
    Yes, it's ridiculous. As it is NOT a left-right issue in any way shape or form.

    The moronic culture warriors piss me right off.
    I like your point - however anyone who's watched BBC Parliament lately knows that, for some reason; it has become a left/right issue.
    So it is a l/r issue after all is what you are saying?

    These things ain't rational, but that's not the same as saying they aren't real.
    It isn't. You just want too make so. But because you want to make it so, doesn't mean it is. Sorry.
    I don't give a flying fuck whether it is left right or centre. I'm just the guy who is telling you the way things are.
    Inaccurately as it happens. As per.
    So all the right say X and all the left say not X, but we have to believe that X is not an l r issue in a sort of spiritual sense because you say so?

    Got it
    Yes, those well-known rightwingers on here, Anabobazina, Stocky and SandyRentool really prove your bloody point don't they?

    Time for you to withdraw on this one, old bean.
    XY is definitely a Left RIght issue.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Cookie said:

    @billybragg
    Was asked why I was wearing a mask this morning while ordering breakfast. Did you see those images of the Commons, I replied, with a bare-faced govt facing the masked opposition? I don’t want anyone in here thinking I’m a Tory
    https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/1451482312797982729

    If the left want to politicise mask-wearing, a) it is regrettable - why must bloody everything be turned into a culture war issue? and b) it will be counter-productive: if you want to associate your side with a particular action, associate it with an action people want to do.
    Yes, it's ridiculous. As it is NOT a left-right issue in any way shape or form.

    The moronic culture warriors piss me right off.
    I like your point - however anyone who's watched BBC Parliament lately knows that, for some reason; it has become a left/right issue.
    So it is a l/r issue after all is what you are saying?

    These things ain't rational, but that's not the same as saying they aren't real.
    It isn't. You just want too make so. But because you want to make it so, doesn't mean it is. Sorry.
    I don't give a flying fuck whether it is left right or centre. I'm just the guy who is telling you the way things are.
    Inaccurately as it happens. As per.
    So all the right say X and all the left say not X, but we have to believe that X is not an l r issue in a sort of spiritual sense because you say so?

    Got it
    Yes, those well-known rightwingers on here, Anabobazina, Stocky and SandyRentool really prove your bloody point don't they?

    Time for you to withdraw on this one, old bean.
    3 data points vs the entire labour/Dem party. Tricky one, and see Tom Harris.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    rkrkrk said:

    49k new cases today (and contrary to MaxPB's confident assertion yesterday, the specimen case rate continues to rise week on week), and over 1k daily admissions to hospital now across UK.

    Pretty bad news I would say, but looks largely driven by England and Wales (to a lesser extent). Scotland and NI don't seem to be seeing growth in cases quite as quickly.

    Here's the split of England's 36,682 assigned cases by specimen date for the 17th October. I've done simple divisions for the 10 - 14 and 15 to 19 age groups.

    0 - 11 8053 Young children
    12-17 8239 Older children
    18-49 12798 Booster ineligible younger adults
    50+ 7592 Booster eligible older adults
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's instincts over masks are out of step with the people it needs to attract
    The Left seem to relish the imposition of rules and regulations to control citizens’ behaviour
    Tom Harris"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/22/labours-instincts-masks-step-people-needs-attract/

    Labour does not have instincts about masks because they are NOT A LEFT RIGHT ISSUE, do you hear me?
    Yawn. If you are using Tom Harris as a thumb-rule, God help you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BREAKING: The former head of the covid vaccine programme, Emily Lawson, is returning from her new job at No10 to take charge again.

    Quite clearly her moving and Zahawi going was an error. This virus bites back whenever anyone has the hubris to think it is beaten.
    iSAGE saying today that shortfall is 3.7m people who should have had boost by now. Criminal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    In the midst of an energy crunch, I will take a rainy mild winter over a cold crisp one. It gets fooking cold up here and I don't really want to have to choose between wearing a blanket the whole winter or paying £10,000 for heating.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    The NHS wouldn’t...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    Johnson = Fwi Song

    LOL, but it pisses me off that FS addresses his followers as salt begotten or something, when we know that the vavatch seas are sweet water. Always meant to write a stiff letter to Banks about that. Fucking procrastination.
    Iain Banks was a great guy, and very good fun to have a drink with. As you might, or might not, expect, had a much less serious outlook on life than Terry Pratchett.
    There is nothing funny about comedy. :)
    People used to laugh when I said I wanted to do stand up. They aren’t laughing now.

    TM Bob Monkhouse
    Probably the best joke ever written. Fantastic!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    I agree entirely. But the problem with cold and dry this year is we may not be able to generate enough power under those circumstances. Wind generation is not suited to cold and dry polar highs as they usually also mean still.

    For once I might be hoping for a wet and windy winter.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,553
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    Tea leaves finally settled then? :D Chocolate teapot time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    JBriskin3 said:

    Cookie said:

    @billybragg
    Was asked why I was wearing a mask this morning while ordering breakfast. Did you see those images of the Commons, I replied, with a bare-faced govt facing the masked opposition? I don’t want anyone in here thinking I’m a Tory
    https://twitter.com/billybragg/status/1451482312797982729

    If the left want to politicise mask-wearing, a) it is regrettable - why must bloody everything be turned into a culture war issue? and b) it will be counter-productive: if you want to associate your side with a particular action, associate it with an action people want to do.
    Yes, it's ridiculous. As it is NOT a left-right issue in any way shape or form.

    The moronic culture warriors piss me right off.
    I like your point - however anyone who's watched BBC Parliament lately knows that, for some reason; it has become a left/right issue.
    So it is a l/r issue after all is what you are saying?

    These things ain't rational, but that's not the same as saying they aren't real.
    It isn't. You just want too make so. But because you want to make it so, doesn't mean it is. Sorry.
    I don't give a flying fuck whether it is left right or centre. I'm just the guy who is telling you the way things are.
    Inaccurately as it happens. As per.
    So all the right say X and all the left say not X, but we have to believe that X is not an l r issue in a sort of spiritual sense because you say so?

    Got it
    Yes, those well-known rightwingers on here, Anabobazina, Stocky and SandyRentool really prove your bloody point don't they?

    Time for you to withdraw on this one, old bean.
    3 data points vs the entire labour/Dem party. Tricky one, and see Tom Harris.
    Is this the very same "entire Labour Party" who wore the square root of FA masks AT THEIR CONFERENCE JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO?

    FFS. Bore off and argue with yourself. I can't be bothered. The last word is yours. Go ahead.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest net favourability ratings for top UK politicians:

    Rishi Sunak: +3
    Lizz Truss: -18
    Sajid Javid: -19
    Keir Starmer: -27
    Boris Johnson: -30
    Priti Patel: -44
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1451535250014851073?s=20

    Look at the number of DKs for Truss.
    Probably wondering who 'Lizz' Truss is. Liz Truss would no doubt have got better (or worse) ratings, but fewer don't knows.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    The NHS wouldn’t...

    Dunno. Surely wet weather = more likely for people to stay indoors.
  • It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    "Totally squandered", on what metric are you basing that?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Right there's enough testing data now for me to say that the South West rise isn't "catch up" due to dodgy testing but a case surge caused by Covid positive peeps circulating rather than isolating.

    The by Specimen Date graph started rising on the 3rd of October, rising from 2324 on the 3rd to 5516 on the 14th.

    Over that time period the 7-day PCR test figure went from 273,386 to 282.724 (i.e. barely any rise) but the positivity figure rose from 6 to 10.3% (and in-fact has risen to 12.1% by the 16th).

    I think it is now complacent to say the South West figures are because we are simply getting the missing cases from earlier in the month and actually this is a great example of what would happen if you don't have mandatory self-isolation in the face of a positive test.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    I agree entirely. But the problem with cold and dry this year is we may not be able to generate enough power under those circumstances. Wind generation is not suited to cold and dry polar highs as they usually also mean still.

    For once I might be hoping for a wet and windy winter.
    That's a very good point. Mild winter weather usually comes with strong breezes attached.

    Hmm.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Had my 3rd Pfizer jab yesterday. No real adverse side effects, although my arm is way sorer and more swollen than the previous two shots.

    I'm going to hopefully get the Moderna booster before I come to the UK in a few weeks. (Plus, hopefully get my 11 year old son his first Pfizer shot.)
    I thought I was going in early for my booster and was going to have to come up with a reason for doing so (travel within 3 weeks to a COVID hotspot), but instead I got a pat on the back from the pharmacist, as it was 6 months to the day from my second shot, and hence my very first day of eligibility.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062

    Seems like the polling average is now a very narrow Tory lead and they are now vulnerable to slipping behind.

    Extra £1000 on Labour lead went on today.

    Do you mean on Smarkets? A grand on a lead by 2/11 is 'brave'.

    Although I'm only seeing £1430 matched on that entire market to-date so what do you mean by Extra £1000?
    I don't think CHB was saying that he personally had wagered £1000 on this bet. At least I hope not.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858

    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
    Interesting thought - who are the missed out good female leaders of Labour in recent times? I'm struggling a bit, to be honest. Mind you, I'm also struggling on the missed out good male leaders of Labour!

    At one point, I might have said Cooper, but not after her leadership campaign. Maybe Nandy, jury still out on that for me. Flint, perhaps (it wasn't the right time for her, when she stood).
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,991
    edited October 22
    They're outside, you twit.

    This whole debate about masks is so incredibly boring that I may as well join in. It is the government that is recommending wearing masks in certain settings. Not the Labour Party or anybody else - the don't have the power.
    The most recent government guidance is here:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
    And it contains the following:
    We expect and recommend that members of the public continue to wear face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with people you don’t normally meet. For example, on public transport.

    So the Tory government is expecting and recommending the wearing of masks. They should either ditch this guidance, or follow it themselves. I'd suggest a packed HoC, e.g. for PMQs, is a crowded and enclosed space, and that MPs are in contact with over 600 people, most of them who they normally don't meet.

    The libertarians on here ought to be having a go at the government for this clear and unequivocal guidance, if they don't like it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566

    Given it's Friday evening, thought I'd have a look at booze (from Middle English bousen, to drink, which came from Middle Dutch buysen, to drink heavily, and before that from Proto-Germanic beuzą, one of their terms for beer)

    I'll start with beer, which joined us - unsurprisingly - from German bier. The origin for bier is apparently much disputed, and hard to trace as it's been used for about 1400 years. I'm happy to go with the quite common idea that it was borrowed by West Germanic 6C monks from Vulgar Latin biber, a drink, from Latin bibere to drink.

    If you fancy a lager, you might want to give it a while. Again from German, but not at all disputed, lagerbier is literally storehouse beer, or beer to be laid down. Lager for storehouse, comes from the same Proto-Indo-European root that we get the verb 'to lay' from.

    Ale, guess what, comes from Germany! Much longer ago, as ealu the Old English word shows. It is derived from Proto-Germanic aluth another word for beer. This may have a more interesting root , as it might be from Proto-Indo-European alu- which indicates magic, sorcery and intoxication.

    Prost!

    Evening Blanche

    Love the etymology posts.

    So here is one I was hoping you could help me with.

    Looking at wikipedia and various other sources, the word Constable is said to derive from he Latin "comes stabuli" (attendant to the stables).

    Wiki also mentions that in France there was a title of 'Connétable de France' or Constable of France.

    This latter ties in with what I was originally taught at University which is that Constable derives from Conné Table - or 'Known at the table' and it referred to the highest ranking commoner, usually the Steward of a castle, was known at (permitted to sit at) the table of the Lord.

    Have you come across this? I can't seem to find any other references to it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Alistair said:

    Given Carlotta seems to have abandoned posting the ONS infection survey numbers these last 2 week

    England 1-in-55
    Wales 1-in-45
    NI 1-in-130
    Scotland 1-in-90

    I think you’ll find I posted them last week. Funny how you’ve suddenly started posting them!
    My apologies, i missed it at the time and couldn't find it when searching.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    The NHS wouldn’t...

    Dunno. Surely wet weather = more likely for people to stay indoors.
    Deaths were below average in 2013-14 when we had a wet and windy winter (the year the Somerset levels flooded). And spiked during the beast from the east.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 224
    IshmaelZ said:

    Fun fact I’ve just discovered - the Duty Free allowance coming to the UK is now 4l of booze >22%…

    AND 18 litres of wine.

    I feel myself strangely warming to Brexit.
    And you can get the VAT back no matter where you buy the booze, if the shop can do the paperwork. So unless the limits are a concern, you’re actually better off than brefore brexit.

    Not sure the average winemaker selling at the door can do the VAT receipt though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    edited October 22
    Striking polling data on migration in France. 65% say it should be reduced.

    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721
    Selebian said:

    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
    Interesting thought - who are the missed out good female leaders of Labour in recent times? I'm struggling a bit, to be honest. Mind you, I'm also struggling on the missed out good male leaders of Labour!

    At one point, I might have said Cooper, but not after her leadership campaign. Maybe Nandy, jury still out on that for me. Flint, perhaps (it wasn't the right time for her, when she stood).
    I don't think Shirley Williams or Barbara Castle would have made good PMs, but at least they were very credible politicians with gravitas.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,459
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's instincts over masks are out of step with the people it needs to attract
    The Left seem to relish the imposition of rules and regulations to control citizens’ behaviour
    Tom Harris"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/22/labours-instincts-masks-step-people-needs-attract/

    Tom Harris!
    @tud 👀
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    Selebian said:

    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
    Interesting thought - who are the missed out good female leaders of Labour in recent times? I'm struggling a bit, to be honest. Mind you, I'm also struggling on the missed out good male leaders of Labour!

    At one point, I might have said Cooper, but not after her leadership campaign. Maybe Nandy, jury still out on that for me. Flint, perhaps (it wasn't the right time for her, when she stood).
    I'm a big fan of Rosena, who is a medical doctor with an absolutely superb backstory but is probably far too feminine and pretty to be acceptable to the chauvinistic male-dominated unions. Also Reeves, as I say above. Flint could have been good. Cooper's leadership campaign was, admittedly, rubbish, but she would have been a very competent leader: she is highly intelligent and has a great cv*



    (*the PB Tories rapid-rebuttal engine will now release a stock "but HIPS" post, relating to a single policy measure from a generation ago that every normal person has long since forgotten about).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,154
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    The NHS wouldn’t...

    Dunno. Surely wet weather = more likely for people to stay indoors.
    Deaths were below average in 2013-14 when we had a wet and windy winter (the year the Somerset levels flooded). And spiked during the beast from the east.
    Fair enough. Thanks for the reply.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566
    edited October 22

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I wish I could agree that it is amazing but I think that somewhere deep down I quietly expected it. The excellent vaccine performance was due to the appointment of a set of serious dedicated individuals who were given the ability to do whatever was necessary and did. Now I would credit Johnson with that one specific set of appointments and instructions. But nothing else. As soon as those people moved on - either voluntarily or otherwise - we have reverted to the normal governmental cluster that we have all come to know and love.

    I think if we were being honest most people would say they kind of expected this to happen at some point. It had a morbid inevitability.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    Think today is the first time I've paid over £1.40 per litre for petrol. Is it going higher?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: long-range winter weather forecast, just released, predicts a southward shift in the seasonal storm path based on the current La Niña weather pattern, with a winter of storms and possible floods for southern France, Italy and the Balkans, with Northern Europe being less stormy and dry, with the likelihood of a prolonged period of very cold weather affecting the UK and Ireland during the later part of the winter.

    I don't give much credence to LRFs but I would prefer cold and dry to mild and wet.
    I agree entirely. But the problem with cold and dry this year is we may not be able to generate enough power under those circumstances. Wind generation is not suited to cold and dry polar highs as they usually also mean still.

    For once I might be hoping for a wet and windy winter.
    That's a very good point. Mild winter weather usually comes with strong breezes attached.

    Hmm.
    Unless you get an unstable polar vortex, in which case you have the winds and frigid temperatures.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566

    Think today is the first time I've paid over £1.40 per litre for petrol. Is it going higher?

    Yes I think so.
  • Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721
    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh

    5) any combination of the above
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited October 22
    The way some talk you would think the Tories habitually had female leaders.
    6 of the last 7 and 29 of 31 years it has been a man. The exception was a disaster.
    There simply aren't that many women at the top yet.
    Can't think of a great lost Labour female leader. Possibly Barbara Castle. At her peak under Wilson though.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,991
    rcs1000 said:

    They're outside, you twit.

    This whole debate about masks is so incredibly boring that I may as well join in. It is the government that is recommending wearing masks in certain settings. Not the Labour Party or anybody else - the don't have the power.
    The most recent government guidance is here:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own/face-coverings-when-to-wear-one-and-how-to-make-your-own
    And it contains the following:
    We expect and recommend that members of the public continue to wear face coverings in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with people you don’t normally meet. For example, on public transport.

    So the Tories are expecting and recommending the wearing of masks. They should either ditch this, or follow it themselves. I'd suggest a crowded HoC, e.g. for PMQs, is a crowded and enclosed space, and that they are in contact with over 6000 people, most of them who they normally don't meet.

    The libertarians on here ought to be having a go at the government for this clear and unequivocal guidance, if they don't like it.
    As an aside, the government guidance is basically what it should be right now.

    A recommendation to wear masks in high risk settings, but not a legal requirement.

    If I were on a crowded tube, even though I'm double vaccinated with Moderna, I would wear a mask. Why? Well, for the same reason I would cover my mouth if I had a cough: it's common courtesy in a crowded space.

    And if I'm asymptomatic, then there are a lot of people who could be getting my viral load, and I wouldn't be aware of it. Selfishly, given that 1-in-55 people appear to currently have Covid in the UK, it's also highly likely that there's at least one other person on the tube and that's the kind of environment where viral load is going to be elevated. So, in that scenario, a mask makes sense.

    Now, for the House of Commons, if I was an MP? If the chamber was crowded and people were doing their loud "Hear, hears", then yeah, I'd probably wear a mask for the same reason. If there were two dozen people in there, then probably not.
    Yes, I agree with all that. I just find it rather mystifying that this whole issue creates such acrimony when it seems largely common sense to me.

    I'd only add that I sometimes wear a mask out of courtesy. For example, my local baker asks customers to put a mask on before entering. So I do so, and would do so even if I thought they were wrong. Because they've asked me to, nicely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Farooq said:

    Greta Thunberg

    Green Thug Brat

    No charm, vile rebel
    Wait.

    That's not an anagram
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460
    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh

    I don't think I would place a "like" on the basis of (2) but certainly do on the basis of the other three criteria.
    I never know who has liked my posts - in my mind I have an idea of the kind of people who would (and wouldn't) but I might be completely wrong about it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Farooq said:

    Greta Thunberg

    Green Thug Brat

    No charm, vile rebel
    Wait.

    That's not an anagram
    It is, of BlancheLivermore. Unless I've made a mistake.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490

    Think today is the first time I've paid over £1.40 per litre for petrol. Is it going higher?

    How much do you want to buy?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699
    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Nope, totally squandered implies that any advantage vaccinating early had is now gone. That's just not the case, unless you are suggesting that everyone who didn't die or get a serious illness because of their early vaccine has subsequently died or had a serious illness.
  • Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Of course it has not completely gone otherwise everyone would be falling victim

    The charts at the Downing Street conference showed the honest picture

    Totally gone is political hyperbole
  • RobD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Nope, totally squandered implies that any advantage vaccinating early had is now gone. That's just not the case, unless you are suggesting that everyone who didn't die or get a serious illness because of their early vaccine has subsequently died or had a serious illness.
    It is just pure nonsense
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480

    Striking polling data on migration in France. 65% say it should be reduced.

    image

    Striking that the number of Les Republicains voters who want to reduce immigration, 90%, is almost as high as the 95% of Le Pen's RN party who want to reduce it.

    Even 57% of Macron's En Marche party voters want to cut immigration, only a plurality of French Green voters want to increase immigration
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    I've picked up some very modest cash on the footy lately.

    My thinking is that, at this stage in the season in particular, the league tables reveal that some teams are better, or worse, than the tables imply. This is because of the three point for a win system (which I have never agreed with but that's bye the bye). Under this system teams which draw a lot of matches are disadvantaged and vice versa.

    For example, take Orient and Hartlepool in League 2.

    Hartlepool W/D/L = 6/2/5 Goal diff +1
    Orient W/D/L = 4/7/2 Goal diff +8

    Orient's win to lose differential is +2 against Hartlepool's +1. You would expect Orient's goal difference to be better - which it is.

    Orient are the better team.

    Yet Hartlepool are a place higher in the league.

    My thinking is that odds-compilers and punters don't take this into account - and this presents betting opportunities. Though admittedly quite marginal ones.

    For tomorrow, I think that Cambridge are overpriced away at Shrewsbury (League 1). So I've layed Shrewsbury (I win if Cam win or if it's a draw). Cambridge are better than the table suggests (and they have a game in hand).

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Selebian said:

    Charles said:

    Great to see that the usual suspects on PB have smeared Rachel Reeves because they don't like her voice and that she is in possession of a pair of breasts. Important things like that which don't cast the posters in a bad light in any way, oh no no siree.

    Rachel Reeves is great. She’s smart, interesting, went to New College. All major pluses.

    But she lacks charisma, has a dreary voice and - important in the strange world of Labour politics - she’s a woman.

    She will never be PM
    As I say above, I don't agree about her voice. But you are probably right that she won't be PM as the Labour Party has an aversion to electing female leaders – probably a legacy of the macho trade union movement, if anything. It's saddening.
    Interesting thought - who are the missed out good female leaders of Labour in recent times? I'm struggling a bit, to be honest. Mind you, I'm also struggling on the missed out good male leaders of Labour!

    At one point, I might have said Cooper, but not after her leadership campaign. Maybe Nandy, jury still out on that for me. Flint, perhaps (it wasn't the right time for her, when she stood).
    I'm a big fan of Rosena, who is a medical doctor with an absolutely superb backstory but is probably far too feminine and pretty to be acceptable to the chauvinistic male-dominated unions. Also Reeves, as I say above. Flint could have been good. Cooper's leadership campaign was, admittedly, rubbish, but she would have been a very competent leader: she is highly intelligent and has a great cv*



    (*the PB Tories rapid-rebuttal engine will now release a stock "but HIPS" post, relating to a single policy measure from a generation ago that every normal person has long since forgotten about).
    Ok. She spent 5 years at MoS/SoS rank under Blair and Brown. What did she do during that time that gives you confidence that she was an effective minister?

    The “but HIPS” point is really saying she’s over-rated and a bit shit but always gets talked about because of the woeful quality of labour’s parliamentary party
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062

    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh

    I don't think I would place a "like" on the basis of (2) but certainly do on the basis of the other three criteria.
    I never know who has liked my posts - in my mind I have an idea of the kind of people who would (and wouldn't) but I might be completely wrong about it.
    2) is the best reason to give a "like" in my view.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927

    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh


    5) The post is an exposition of the Rules of Liking
    6) Or an Addendum to an Exposition
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062

    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh


    5) The post is an exposition of the Rules of Liking
    Clever arse. I've graded (liked) your post as a 4).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    Charles said:

    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh


    5) The post is an exposition of the Rules of Liking
    6) Or an Addendum to an Exposition
    Oh dear, look what I've done.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,927
    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    Not on a comparable basis.

    We decided the interests of society didn’t entitle us to force medical treatment with a net negative predicted outcome on our children. In many ways that is admirable.
  • OT - Interesting & informative analysis by Fishing - thanks for sharing your research & insights!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    Stocky said:

    On what basis do you guys place a "like"?

    I've spent five minutes too long thinking about this and have come up with the following four reasons:

    1) I agree with the post
    2) the post is very well written and/or interesting though I don't necessarily agree with it
    3) I am acknowledging a come-back response to a post of mine
    4) The post made me laugh

    Yes. I would use any of these reasons for a like (2 not so much as the others). I also like posts that teach me new facts, however obscure.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
  • It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I wish I could agree that it is amazing but I think that somewhere deep down I quietly expected it. The excellent vaccine performance was due to the appointment of a set of serious dedicated individuals who were given the ability to do whatever was necessary and did. Now I would credit Johnson with that one specific set of appointments and instructions. But nothing else. As soon as those people moved on - either voluntarily or otherwise - we have reverted to the normal governmental cluster that we have all come to know and love.

    I think if we were being honest most people would say they kind of expected this to happen at some point. It had a morbid inevitability.
    Hello Richard, hope you are doing well.

    You are one of the few Tories prepared to give an honest assessment of this Government's performance, with which I completely agree.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    But it is to the east of Europe if you take the long way around.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    TimT said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    But it is to the east of Europe if you take the long way around.
    HYUFD always takes the long way around
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,721
    Farooq said:

    TimT said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    It’s amazing that we have totally squandered all advantages we had with the early vaccine rollout

    I don't think that's true.

    In the UK (except Scotland) we enjoy at least a simulacrum of normal life. More so than many countries I suspect. And that is due to the early vaccines and the impressive take-up.
    Totally squandered is hyperbole
    Au contraire. It's exactly on the mark.
    We've slipped behind multiple countries on those fully vaccinated, and have a higher rate of infection than even countries with a lower vaccination rate, and higher death rates than most. We had a big advantage, and now it's completely gone.
    As WG posted earlier the UK still has a lower death rate from Covid per head not only than the USA but also now than the EU as a whole due to low vaccination rates in Eastern Europe
    The USA is not in Eastern Europe
    (day 60)
    But it is to the east of Europe if you take the long way around.
    HYUFD always takes the long way around
    I liked that comment on the basis of 1, 3, and 4 of stocky's list.
This discussion has been closed.