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Seasonal factors and the timing of general elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 22 in General
imageSeasonal factors and the timing of general elections – politicalbetting.com

Since 1979, British governments have tended to hold elections in the Spring.  According to Nigel Lawson’s memoirs, this was because Mrs Thatcher, having won in the Spring of 1979, thought that May and June were her lucky months, but subsequent Prime Ministers continued the practice.  Of the last 11 elections, only one (the most recent) was not held in April, May or June.  Subject to the five-year limit, the Prime Minister controlled the timing of the elections until the passage of the 2011 Fixed Term Parliaments Act, and are likely to do so again if the current government carries out its pledge to repeal that law.

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Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,982
    First
  • FPT

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile, 95-yr old woman "back at her desk" after hospital check ups.

    Been described as "in good spirits". That generally means you're completely fucked. cf Phil the Greek.
    When the Princess of Hearts was in that car crash doctors described her condition as "grave" and I said oh well that's ok then she'll be fine. To which a doctor friend of mine said no, "grave" means it's all over, might already be.
    The clue is in the word, surely ?
    Well I hadn't thought it literally relates to the grave but I'm sure someone will enlighten me.
    Grave: the noun meaning burial place, and the adjective meaning serious; appear to etymologically separate.

    The noun is from Proto-Germanic grafa, meaning ditch or grave. This is the same source that gives us 'engrave', to scratch in.

    The adjective is from Old French greve, meaning terrible or dreadful. This derived from Latin gravis, meaning weighty or serious. And where we get gravity from.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767
    Prob postal voting lessens the impact anyway
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    edited October 22
    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    First

    FIRST!!!

    I WAS FIRST!!!!!

    FIRST.

    I have never been FIRST before.

    I rock.

    Oh yes.

    You lot won't hear the end of this.

    I. Was. First.
    "Was". Such is the story of life...
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    First

    FIRST!!!

    I WAS FIRST!!!!!

    FIRST.

    I have never been FIRST before.

    I rock.

    Oh yes.

    You lot won't hear the end of this.

    I. Was. First.
    Reminds me of an old 80s joke. Why do the ladies like the SDP. Because they always come second!!

    (I'll get my coat....)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    There is a simple but dark solution to stop Covid overwhelming the NHS. Set up a waiting list.

    "Oh you've got Covid and need ventillation? We'll get back to you with an appointment. Are you free in three months?"

    Its how the NHS already rations other ailments.

    [Not entirely a serious suggestion]
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,260
    edited October 22
    Deleted- I've totally misread that.

    But it is fascinating- so thanks @Fishing.

    And if the government can't conjure up tax cuts, that's not going to help them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    I'd call that medical not behavioural.

    Choosing the candidates with the best potential outcomes.

    (About 9th. Like Manchester United.)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 5,650
    Spring is surely a period of optimism, and perhaps it is the more optimistic political agenda that people go for. In '97 "things can only get better" was the oppositions optimistic and successful pitch. For the Conservative opposition in '79 there was "Don't just hope for a better life. Vote for one." along with the now better known "Labour's not working".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    I'd call that medical not behavioural.

    Choosing the candidates with the best potential outcomes.

    (About 9th. Like Manchester United.)
    You can justify almost anything with data if you try hard enough.

    Medically vaccinated Covid-positive patients excrete less Covid to infect other people with don't they? So medically vaccinated patients are less of a risk overall?

    So treat the vaccinated in the real hospitals, and the unvaccinated in Nightingale tents, because of a risk analysis.

    Problem solved.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,982

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    First

    FIRST!!!

    I WAS FIRST!!!!!

    FIRST.

    I have never been FIRST before.

    I rock.

    Oh yes.

    You lot won't hear the end of this.

    I. Was. First.
    "Was". Such is the story of life...
    Ah me. I wasn't even the future once but now that is one thing I can tick off on the bucket list.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    I'd call that medical not behavioural.

    Choosing the candidates with the best potential outcomes.

    (About 9th. Like Manchester United.)
    Drug use, alcohol use, overeating, lack of exercise and smoking are all behaviours with medical consequences.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    I'd call that medical not behavioural.

    Choosing the candidates with the best potential outcomes.

    (About 9th. Like Manchester United.)
    Drug use, alcohol use, overeating, lack of exercise and smoking are all behaviours with medical consequences.
    And arguably medical causes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited October 22
    Booster jab campaign launches...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    Just under 5 million booster / third jabs done:

    In England four million people have had a booster or third jab. More than 400,000 booster jabs and 30,500 third primary doses have been delivered in Scotland; 40,000 boosters and 5,500 third doses have been given in Northern Ireland. Data is not yet available for Wales.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,242
    I think the interesting thing is that there is much less variability in the monthly figures when you strip out the pre-election months. This leads me to conclude that the polling is significantly different in the pre-election period. There are two plausible explanations.

    1. The government, knowing when the election will be (either because they choose the date, or because the date is fixed) are able to make short-term policy decisions to buy short-term popularity.

    2. The voters only pay proper attention to politics in the pre-election period, so polls outside of that period are biased by fleeting frustrations, and a more considered view normally favours the government.

    To deal with the first effect I would suggest that the timing of elections should be random. We would have four possible election dates each year on the first Thursdays of March, June, September and December.

    Eight weeks before each possible election date we would have a televised ceremony in which the Monarch would draw a coloured stone from a bag of twelve stones - eleven white and one red. If the red stone is drawn then the election date is set for eight weeks time. If a white stone is drawn there is no election and the stone is set aside so there is one fewer white stone for the next draw. The ceremony does not take place until nearly two years have elapsed, so the minimum gap between elections is two years and the maximum is five.

    To deal with the second effect I would ban political opinion polling except in the eight-week pre-election period.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    Well that's next year certainly ruled out.

    Also with so much of the Gov't vote being produced by non workers is that still overly relevant ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    Yes and I think that's a pretty widely accepted example of a very precious resource not being wasted on someone who will destroy it.

    Treatment restrictions by the NHS for unvaccinated COVID patients would also be very widely accepted by the public and it would be the morally right thing to do as it clears out the hospitals and allows them to get on with making a dent in the backlog.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,982
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    First

    FIRST!!!

    I WAS FIRST!!!!!

    FIRST.

    I have never been FIRST before.

    I rock.

    Oh yes.

    You lot won't hear the end of this.

    I. Was. First.
    Oh and @Fishing great header. Thanks. And suitably dignified by the first comment.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767
    FPT Slippery slope arguments tend no to stand up to too much scrutiny. Cocaine used to be legal, now it isn't. You can imagine the yebbut alcohol/tobacco/coffee will be next arguments. The first answer is One thing at a time, we are not talking about that stuff now. The other is Don't be silly, that's different. The third is Good point, perhaps we should look at other stuff too. All three answers would have been valid in the 1920s - there has been no creep in 100 years on booze n coffee, we have looked at tobacco again and are moving it towards cocaine.

    Similarly: we are talking about vaccination now, not anything else, and it is hard to see what is wrong about having a debate about that other stuff anyway.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    Thread from a Lab councillor on what the party should be saying on Plan A/B:


    Labour really needs to be pushing for Plan B NOW.

    I get why LOTO is avoiding this: apparently research showed that swing voters hated Lab criticising the government over Covid. And they must calculate that if things get bad enough then voters will turn against the gov anyway. 1/

    https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1451459209393065999
  • Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    Well that's next year certainly ruled out.

    Also with so much of the Gov't vote being produced by non workers is that still overly relevant ?
    True and another reason for November / December 2023...

  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
    If that's the case - they better stop discussing stupid things like scrapping HS2 eastern extension and start to get on with things.

    Oh and don't use the gold plated approach done down South, just get on with it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
    If that's the case - they better stop discussing stupid things like scrapping HS2 eastern extension and start to get on with things.

    Oh and don't use the gold plated approach done down South, just get on with it.
    FPT, relevant - on “Levelling Up”:

    Boris’s speech on it was actually a half-decent (though characteristically rambling) précis of the main problems and likely solutions to Britain’s regional inequality problem (on some measures, worst in the developed world).

    I actually praised it on here.

    However, the government has pledged to do several things at once

    - Return the budget to steady state
    - Tackle the Covid backlog
    - Protect funding for Health, Education & Defence
    - Keep tax rises to a minimum
    - Drive toward carbon zero
    - Fund social care
    - Keep bribing the retired and house-owners.
    - “Level up”

    Meanwhile we have global supply shocks, exacerbated by Brexit, and we have decided we won’t use immigration to mitigate against an ageing population.

    So something (most of the things) was gonna give.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-59003457

    A sad case - one question is though if the ambulance had been summoned by the 111 operator would have it have reached the family in a timely fashion.
    I could certainly have reached my local hospital more quickly than the previous time an ambulance reached my house via a 111 call.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    Just booked my mum in for her booster/flu jab on Sunday. Not sure who sent it, but a link was sent to my sister (my mum doesn't have a smart phone) and we were able to do it through that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,991

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    "Cases will be down at least 30% from where they are now come the winter." @andrew_lilico gives me his prediction as to what will happen to Covid cases in the next few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1451492703208869898?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858
    edited October 22

    MattW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    I'd call that medical not behavioural.

    Choosing the candidates with the best potential outcomes.

    (About 9th. Like Manchester United.)
    You can justify almost anything with data if you try hard enough.

    Medically vaccinated Covid-positive patients excrete less Covid to infect other people with don't they? So medically vaccinated patients are less of a risk overall?

    So treat the vaccinated in the real hospitals, and the unvaccinated in Nightingale tents, because of a risk analysis.

    Problem solved.
    However, the vaccinated perhaps have a better chance of recovery from $severitystate. So, two equally sick patients, there may be more medical benefit in treating the unvaccinated one.

    I'm obviously not advocating that! And there's also the point at which both are in a grave (FPT) situation and unvaccinated one really is no hope but the vaccinated one has a better chance of pulling through with help. So you treat the vaccinated.

    Edit: Neatly proving your point about data, of course :wink:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    May 2023 would mean the old constituency boundaries - no way is Boris risking 10 seats by going before those changes have been made.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    GIN1138 said:

    I always assumed the reason general elections were (usually) held in May or June was light evenings and better weather and as local elections are usually held around this time it saves money for the tax payer to combine the local and national election?

    You think a PM would choose saving a few million quid for the tax payer more important than tactical advantage in the election? Bless.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,817

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
    If that's the case - they better stop discussing stupid things like scrapping HS2 eastern extension and start to get on with things.

    Oh and don't use the gold plated approach done down South, just get on with it.
    FPT, relevant - on “Levelling Up”:

    Boris’s speech on it was actually a half-decent (though characteristically rambling) précis of the main problems and likely solutions to Britain’s regional inequality problem (on some measures, worst in the developed world).

    I actually praised it on here.

    However, the government has pledged to do several things at once

    - Return the budget to steady state
    - Tackle the Covid backlog
    - Protect funding for Health, Education & Defence
    - Keep tax rises to a minimum
    - Drive toward carbon zero
    - Fund social care
    - Keep bribing the retired and house-owners.
    - “Level up”

    Meanwhile we have global supply shocks, exacerbated by Brexit, and we have decided we won’t use immigration to mitigate against an ageing population.

    So something (most of the things) was gonna give.
    Round here - the drive to level up is very much focussed on industries that will lead towards carbon zero.

    Levelling up on an employment level does go hand in hand with carbon reduction.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,435
    Interesting piece from Fishing on something I'd never thought about - thanks!

    Rottenborough's post at the end of the last thread points to some very perceptive tweets by a Labour councillor - would be good to see what others think:

    -----------

    Thread from a Lab councillor on what the party should be saying on Plan A/B:


    Labour really needs to be pushing for Plan B NOW.

    I get why LOTO is avoiding this: apparently research showed that swing voters hated Lab criticising the government over Covid. And they must calculate that if things get bad enough then voters will turn against the gov anyway. 1/

    https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1451459209393065999
  • Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,224

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    Shortly after the new boundaries are implemented will mean some rejigging of constituency parties.
    Although, of course, 'shadows' can be set up.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264
    My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the name at the bottom of this header.
    Fishing, I have previously dismissed your comments as generalised arseholery, but I'm going to look more carefully in future at what you've got to say because the above analysis is really interesting.
    Part way through I was thinking "yebbut, elections..." and lo and behold you went on to cover exactly that. Very nice work.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    Great thread.

    Seasonality in stock markets is assumed to be down to investors getting too pessimistic in autumn and too optimistic in spring. I guess politically if someone is optimistic it doesn't always favour the government. Some voters will be more willing to risk a change when they are optimistic, particularly with the dynamic we have where many potential swing voters are afraid of Labour, especially old Labour.

    https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/04/30/sell-in-may-still-works/
  • tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    Mind you, sometimes a government will go 'early' because it thinks its doing well and lose an election (i.e. 1970), and a 'losing' government can drag it to the end and still end up winning (i.e. 1992).
    You never know... the fate of Johnson's government may well end being the former.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    No, I didn't say autumn 2023 wasn't within normal. I said that autumn elections are unusual and people would wonder why they were voting then and not in the Spring. And the answer is very simple. The boundaries. And when people realise this, and they will be told by Labour and the media over and over again, they won't be impressed.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420
    MattW said:

    Just under 5 million booster / third jabs done:

    In England four million people have had a booster or third jab. More than 400,000 booster jabs and 30,500 third primary doses have been delivered in Scotland; 40,000 boosters and 5,500 third doses have been given in Northern Ireland. Data is not yet available for Wales.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

    is there a defence between a booster and a third jab?

    I thought it was just 2 names for the same thing?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,459
    edited October 22
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT on rationing in the NHS for behavioural reasons...

    https://www.nhsinform.scot/tests-and-treatments/surgical-procedures/liver-transplant
    For example, you may not be able to have a transplant if you are unable to stop misusing alcohol

    Different to the vax issue though. The issue there, with the dodgy liver, is if you keep drinking the treatment will be wasted on you. On the vax, by contrast, if an antivaxxer in the prime of life needs treatment to stop him dying from Covid, the treatment is not wasted. Very much not. He will likely recover well and be able to live happily & healthily for many many years, doing whatever it is that antivaxxers like to do (as opposed to not liking to do, eg take a free and safe vaccine to help the community keep a serious disease under control). Also no point making the treatment conditional on him afterwards getting the vaccine - since he'll be immune after his bad dose and near escape.
  • Farooq said:

    My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the name at the bottom of this header.
    Fishing, I have previously dismissed your comments as generalised arseholery, but I'm going to look more carefully in future at what you've got to say because the above analysis is really interesting.
    Part way through I was thinking "yebbut, elections..." and lo and behold you went on to cover exactly that. Very nice work.

    You aim to be more specific with yours?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,264

    Farooq said:

    My eyes popped out of my head when I saw the name at the bottom of this header.
    Fishing, I have previously dismissed your comments as generalised arseholery, but I'm going to look more carefully in future at what you've got to say because the above analysis is really interesting.
    Part way through I was thinking "yebbut, elections..." and lo and behold you went on to cover exactly that. Very nice work.

    You aim to be more specific with yours?
    Yes, my arseholery is targeted.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Interesting piece from Fishing on something I'd never thought about - thanks!

    Rottenborough's post at the end of the last thread points to some very perceptive tweets by a Labour councillor - would be good to see what others think:

    -----------

    Thread from a Lab councillor on what the party should be saying on Plan A/B:


    Labour really needs to be pushing for Plan B NOW.

    I get why LOTO is avoiding this: apparently research showed that swing voters hated Lab criticising the government over Covid. And they must calculate that if things get bad enough then voters will turn against the gov anyway. 1/

    https://twitter.com/ChristabelCoops/status/1451459209393065999

    Saw Starmer on TV briefly in some kind of pool clip the other day. I am sorry to say it just struck me at that moment that he aint gonna be PM. Can't put my finger on why really, but something about how he communicates just doesn't seem to work on TV and that is a big problem.

    To be honest though, I suspect my reaction was because I had binge watched the first two parts of the New Labour documentary and of course there was the Master.

    As to the Lab councillor's view: she may have a point. Why not try having more of a 'go' at the government over case rates and covid. Starmer should certainly be tearing a strip over the mess that the Booster jab seems to be in.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,459
    edited October 22
    Interesting header, @Fishing, thanks. The last election was an odd one in that it felt a bit like it was called by the opposition ("Boris" and his buccaneering Brexiteers) against the government (the Remainer establishment). I think this accounted for some of the big win. Such a spin - "vote for change, we've only been in for 14 years" mustn't be allowed to succeed again and Labour are totally on this. Note how their spokespeople keep saying "this Tory government" when on TV and radio. Not "the government", not "the Tories", not "Boris Johnson" - This Tory Government.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 31,982
    re Alec Baldwin presumably the "prop gun" blew up turning it into a frag grenade?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,737
    tlg86 said:

    Just booked my mum in for her booster/flu jab on Sunday. Not sure who sent it, but a link was sent to my sister (my mum doesn't have a smart phone) and we were able to do it through that.

    This week's Spectator TV has an item on the necessity of Smartphones in daily life.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI7SfedV0AU&t=3533s
  • Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    Very sad
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    edited October 22
    BigRich said:

    MattW said:

    Just under 5 million booster / third jabs done:

    In England four million people have had a booster or third jab. More than 400,000 booster jabs and 30,500 third primary doses have been delivered in Scotland; 40,000 boosters and 5,500 third doses have been given in Northern Ireland. Data is not yet available for Wales.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

    is there a defence between a booster and a third jab?

    I thought it was just 2 names for the same thing?
    I think it does mean the same thing - it is just badly written.

    I'll take the booster jab obvs - but not fussed whether it is on the dot of six months or seven months or eight. Perhaps a lot of people feel like that and just haven't got round to it? After all it doesn't have similar urgency to the original two doses (especially the first).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    No, I didn't say autumn 2023 wasn't within normal. I said that autumn elections are unusual and people would wonder why they were voting then and not in the Spring. And the answer is very simple. The boundaries. And when people realise this, and they will be told by Labour and the media over and over again, they won't be impressed.
    I don't think so, after all Gordon Brown nearly went with an election in the autumn and the media was OK with that until he chickened out.

    The media love an election. It gives them great attention, great coverage, a guaranteed string of stories to report on. The issue in the last few years is public burnout, from 2014 to 2019 the only year without a General Election or Referendum was 2018, hence the "not another one" outburst in 2017 it was the fourth year in a row.

    Come autumn 2023 the last election will be a reasonable time away, people won't have voted in anything major in years. It will be exciting for the media and they'd love it.

    Plus I'm not sure the boundaries will be odd to people. The old set of boundaries are decades out of date, having new ones long overdue isn't unreasonable (especially since there's no reduction in numbers this time) and waiting until up to date ones in place isn't odd.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566
    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    Absolutely. A politician who understood that it was all about public service.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,191
    TOPPING said:

    re Alec Baldwin presumably the "prop gun" blew up turning it into a frag grenade?

    Almost certainly either -

    a) Got too close and the pressure wave from the muzzle was lethal
    b) Or something lodged in the barrel (See the film The Crow etc)
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 618

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    Absolutely. A politician who understood that it was all about public service.
    Other than keeping Brown in charge of the economy for his whole time in office, the worst thing about Blair domestically IMHO is the way he treated Frank Field.

    "Think the unthinkable" Blair said. So Frank did, and he was fired as a result.
    Totally agree with this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,459
    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
  • Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    No, I didn't say autumn 2023 wasn't within normal. I said that autumn elections are unusual and people would wonder why they were voting then and not in the Spring. And the answer is very simple. The boundaries. And when people realise this, and they will be told by Labour and the media over and over again, they won't be impressed.
    I don't think so, after all Gordon Brown nearly went with an election in the autumn and the media was OK with that until he chickened out.

    The media love an election. It gives them great attention, great coverage, a guaranteed string of stories to report on. The issue in the last few years is public burnout, from 2014 to 2019 the only year without a General Election or Referendum was 2018, hence the "not another one" outburst in 2017 it was the fourth year in a row.

    Come autumn 2023 the last election will be a reasonable time away, people won't have voted in anything major in years. It will be exciting for the media and they'd love it.

    Plus I'm not sure the boundaries will be odd to people. The old set of boundaries are decades out of date, having new ones long overdue isn't unreasonable (especially since there's no reduction in numbers this time) and waiting until up to date ones in place isn't odd.
    You're right to mention the Gordon Brown fiasco. If the Tories want to go for autumn 2023, then they need to announce the date six months out. They absolutely cannot allow a will they/won't they narrative to develop during the year.

    Yes, the media love an election. But they love a close election even more. So don't expect the media to play nice.

    There's nothing wrong with the boundary changes; indeed, I am in favour of them. But if you hold an election in the autumn, people will wonder why it's happening then. The Tories can say "well, we wanted to wait until the new boundaries were in place", which is fine, but the next question is "why not just wait until May 2024?" And the answer? "We're worried things will go to shit before then."

    If you go a year early, no one thinks "oh, they think things are going to go wrong in the next year." Going a year early was what Thatcher and Blair did. People are fine with it. But if you hold an election outside of the usual period, people will wonder what the government is worried about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,039
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
    Not if interest rates go up.
    https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/The-outlook-for-debt-interest-spending.pdf
    ...Most outstanding public debt in the UK is the liability of central government. So in this paper we focus on interest spending on central government gross debt (bearing in mind that some factors that might affect it would have partly offsetting effects on interest payments the government receives). An important complication is that the Bank of England – also part of the public sector – has bought a substantial quantity of central government debt, financed by the creation of reserves on which it currently pays just a 0.25 per cent rate of interest – an interest rate (Bank Rate) set by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In effect, this has allowed the government to refinance some of its past fixed interest borrowing at a lower floating rate, reducing interest payments for now but leaving it more exposed to the risk of higher debt servicing costs if the MPC chooses to raise Bank Rate in the future....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    It’s the right thing to do, economically and morally.

    Although it would cost me.

    But, just as only Nixon could go to China, only the Tories can reform wealth taxation.

    I am pretty comfortable they won’t.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767
    kinabalu said:

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
    It's fundamentally a libertarian issue. If the government would just let us but the drugs we want to buy including barbiturates, we could sort ourselves out.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,914



    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:

    - defence

    The Chinook fleet has just been cut from 60 to 51 and the MoD had to "reconsider the expenditure profile" of the H-47(ER) procurement. It's been pushed three years to the right so consider that cancelled.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    Most voters back a wealth tax paid only by the wealthy and not them, what a surprise!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,460

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    Public opinion always favours taxing other people. The question actually refers to taxing "the wealthy" not "wealth" and "wealthy" is an ambiguous term in common usage that could mean either wealth rich or income rich.
    WIW I think we should tax wealth but also tax higher earners' income more. But a wealth tax is only going to be practical and raise significant amounts if it is levied on primary residences, with a relatively low threshold. Good luck getting that past the voters.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 87

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    Public opinion always favours taxing other people. The question actually refers to taxing "the wealthy" not "wealth" and "wealthy" is an ambiguous term in common usage that could mean either wealth rich or income rich.
    WIW I think we should tax wealth but also tax higher earners' income more. But a wealth tax is only going to be practical and raise significant amounts if it is levied on primary residences, with a relatively low threshold. Good luck getting that past the voters.
    Worth remembering how Labour and Lib Dem voters backed an NI increase to fund health and social care in polling, until it was implemented by the Tories.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    It’s the right thing to do, economically and morally.

    Although it would cost me.

    But, just as only Nixon could go to China, only the Tories can reform wealth taxation.

    I am pretty comfortable they won’t.
    Seems to have been a complete Horlicks in France though I don't know how biased this source is

    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/wealth-tax#

    We already have a wealth tax, IHT, which would work just fine with some easy and obvious tightening of loopholes. Why not use that?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,242
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    No, I didn't say autumn 2023 wasn't within normal. I said that autumn elections are unusual and people would wonder why they were voting then and not in the Spring. And the answer is very simple. The boundaries. And when people realise this, and they will be told by Labour and the media over and over again, they won't be impressed.
    I don't think so, after all Gordon Brown nearly went with an election in the autumn and the media was OK with that until he chickened out.

    The media love an election. It gives them great attention, great coverage, a guaranteed string of stories to report on. The issue in the last few years is public burnout, from 2014 to 2019 the only year without a General Election or Referendum was 2018, hence the "not another one" outburst in 2017 it was the fourth year in a row.

    Come autumn 2023 the last election will be a reasonable time away, people won't have voted in anything major in years. It will be exciting for the media and they'd love it.

    Plus I'm not sure the boundaries will be odd to people. The old set of boundaries are decades out of date, having new ones long overdue isn't unreasonable (especially since there's no reduction in numbers this time) and waiting until up to date ones in place isn't odd.
    You're right to mention the Gordon Brown fiasco. If the Tories want to go for autumn 2023, then they need to announce the date six months out. They absolutely cannot allow a will they/won't they narrative to develop during the year.

    Yes, the media love an election. But they love a close election even more. So don't expect the media to play nice.

    There's nothing wrong with the boundary changes; indeed, I am in favour of them. But if you hold an election in the autumn, people will wonder why it's happening then. The Tories can say "well, we wanted to wait until the new boundaries were in place", which is fine, but the next question is "why not just wait until May 2024?" And the answer? "We're worried things will go to shit before then."

    If you go a year early, no one thinks "oh, they think things are going to go wrong in the next year." Going a year early was what Thatcher and Blair did. People are fine with it. But if you hold an election outside of the usual period, people will wonder what the government is worried about.
    It's pretty simple isn't it? Four years is the "normal" gap between elections, so that's why we'll have another autumn/winter election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,480
    kinabalu said:

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    I sense that 'assisted dying' (the debate in which this sad news was announced) is an idea whose time has come.
    As I posted on the last thread, euthanasia is already legal in some nations, eg Spain, Canada, New Zealand, Belgium and the Netherlands and most Australian states but only generally for the terminally ill of sound mind with less than 6 months to live as confirmed by at least 2 doctors. We must ensure the legislation goes no further than that if it passes.

    Interesting article from Giles Fraser in the Guardian though a few years ago giving the opposite view and Justin Welby making sensible points on why he opposes assisted dying too

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/belief/2013/may/03/burden-loved-ones-dying-euthanasia

    https://twitter.com/churchstate/status/1451488467029041155?s=20

  • Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    It’s the right thing to do, economically and morally.

    Although it would cost me.

    But, just as only Nixon could go to China, only the Tories can reform wealth taxation.

    I am pretty comfortable they won’t.
    I hope you are wrong as it is the right think to do
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    edited October 22

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Regardless of the state of the public finances, Covid spending and so forth, I'd be absolutely astonished if Boris and Rishi don't find access to a magic money forest that enables them to bribe the electorate in advance of the GE, whenever it is.
    Strategy is clear.

    Tax rises now.
    Tax cuts before election.

    Fiscally, this means we won’t meaningfully subsidise carbon zero or “level up”.

    We’ll also see the continued hollowing out of the state outside the protected budgets:
    - health (an insatiable maw)
    - education
    - defence
    Sounds about right.

    And if this government- blessed with a chunky majority, a PM who can persuade people of anything and the moment when the public is willing to look for changes- can't move the nation on from that, then we're collectively stuffed.

    Unless (to adapt the line used, I think, about British Airways) we're happy to become a health service and pension system which happens to have a nation attached.
    Well, it’s baked in.

    Unless we tax more (wealth, not income) or we decide that we can afford more debt.

    As it happens, I believe we should lower income taxes, increase wealth taxes, *and* allow ourselves a higher debt level to pay for levelling up.
    Seems public opinion backs wealth taxes as I do

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1451489992509886474?t=HcljOHoo6nq3e_8LfzyK7A&s=19
    Public opinion always favours taxing other people. The question actually refers to taxing "the wealthy" not "wealth" and "wealthy" is an ambiguous term in common usage that could mean either wealth rich or income rich.
    WIW I think we should tax wealth but also tax higher earners' income more. But a wealth tax is only going to be practical and raise significant amounts if it is levied on primary residences, with a relatively low threshold. Good luck getting that past the voters.
    I really don't get why a new tax needs to be a panacea that solves all our problems to be significant. If it even raises £5bn a year, that is still fine. I don't see why one can't raise much more than that and from the very wealthy only.

    We don't eliminate taxes that are not raising as much as VAT or income tax, why is that a hurdle for new taxes?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609
    edited October 22
    Most wealth is held by pensioners.
    Much of it in pensions, which we want to encourage not discourage.

    If public opinion were not a constraint, I would simply:

    1. Change council tax to a land levy tax, at say 1% or 2% of land value per annum.

    2. Change IHT to an income tax on received legacies. No threshold, but not payable by surviving spouses.

    I would just scrap stamp duty on property transactions.
  • On tax seems Rishi is considering taxing building company profits over 25 million to offset the cladding scandal
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    The
    @Dominic2306
    brain dump about Starmer/Nandy contains some interesting stuff, herewith translated into Labourese ... 1/ Labour has no strategy because it has no surveillance function and a flawed decision making process. He's right. That's been said to every LOTO since Ed M...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609

    On tax seems Rishi is considering taxing building company profits over 25 million to offset the cladding scandal

    Although building companies of a certain size are quasi monopolies, why should the general
    industry be taxed for the sins of some developers?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,767

    Most wealth is held by pensioners.
    Much of it in pensions, which we want to encourage not discourage.

    If public opinion were not a constraint, I would simply:

    1. Change council tax to a land levy tax, at say 1% or 2% of land value per annum.

    2. Change IHT to an income tax on received legacies. No threshold, but not payable by surviving spouses.

    I would just scrap stamp duty on property transactions.

    You need to add "and lifetime transfers" in 2.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979
    edited October 22

    Most wealth is held by pensioners.
    Much of it in pensions, which we want to encourage not discourage.

    If public opinion were not a constraint, I would simply:

    1. Change council tax to a land levy tax, at say 1% or 2% of land value per annum.

    2. Change IHT to an income tax on received legacies. No threshold, but not payable by surviving spouses.

    I would just scrap stamp duty on property transactions.

    Random thought on IHT on received legacies. Tax it at your age, to encourage it to go to the young!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609
    The other thing about wealth is that for the very richest it has gone up massively since QE and especially since Covid.

    So there really shouldn’t be any concerns about whether there is money there to tax.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    That works for election years, and given the fiscal corset of the next few years, it's a worry for the government.

    But if I'd read this right (and it's fascinating, thanks @Fishing!) there's a wider pattern. Is it something as primal as early May is when winter and fake-Spring are unambiguously over, it's sunny and warm again, the flowers are out, and we all feel cheerful and optimistic? And that makes us feel positively disposed towards the government (of whatever party), even though it has literally nothing to do with their efforts?
    But if I read it right the data says Spring is better in GE years and worse in non-GE years. So sunny and warm aren't the answer because if they were we'd be feeling sunny and warm in non-GE years too.

    The Budget explains both to me. In non-GE years when the Government are piling on the bad news/taxes etc then we feel angry at the Government. Then in GE years they come back and bribe us with our own money and we are happy again. Overall.
    Yup, I misread that. The government's problem is then that it hasn't been able to build up a pile of cash to bribe people with. The Scrooge/Santa cycle has been prised apart from the electoral cycle- partly because of the elections in 2017 and 2019, but mostly because of Covid.
    Hmm, I've been looking at the data and it's highly likely that the government will massively undershoot official borrowing projections, by hundreds of billions by election day. Who's to say that they won't then push tax cuts in 2024 using some of that "surplus" as I'm sure it will be classed.

    We're probably going to have a current budget surplus by 24/25.
    If we're heading for a budget surplus after the huge costs of Covid does that mean Corbyn's policies were easily affordable?

    Oh and superb analysis for the header Mr Fishing and thanks for sharing.
  • On tax seems Rishi is considering taxing building company profits over 25 million to offset the cladding scandal

    Although building companies of a certain size are quasi monopolies, why should the general
    industry be taxed for the sins of some developers?
    Easy to administer no doubt
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,369
    Mr. Walker, 'allow ourselves' more debt?

    You mean, allow the succeeding generation to inherit a nation with more debt on its books. You may think that's worthwhile (in context), but those who decide the UK should borrow more will not be the ones to pay it back.

    What's our interest on debt up to now? Few years ago it was around £50bn-ish, I think.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,609
    IshmaelZ said:

    Most wealth is held by pensioners.
    Much of it in pensions, which we want to encourage not discourage.

    If public opinion were not a constraint, I would simply:

    1. Change council tax to a land levy tax, at say 1% or 2% of land value per annum.

    2. Change IHT to an income tax on received legacies. No threshold, but not payable by surviving spouses.

    I would just scrap stamp duty on property transactions.

    You need to add "and lifetime transfers" in 2.
    Yep. Good shout.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    Isn't the obvious issue the Budget?

    In non-General Election years tax rises etc can kick in at April. See the NI insurance rise already announced which will be an ugly hit in people's pay packets when it kicks in.

    In General Election years tax cuts etc can kick in at April.

    So Governments are piling the bad onto non-General Election years, and the good onto General Election years, and either way that kicks in at the Spring.

    The ideal reason for a May election is because the government has improved your April pay pocket and mentioned the fact continually.

    The issue we have with the next election is that the Tories will gain 10 seats if they wait for the new constituencies (October 2023) but run a risk of events running out of control if they wait until May 2024.

    Hence why November / December 2023 seems the likely time of the next general election.
    I don't think so. The Dec 2019 election was out of the ordinary due to Brexit and the hung parliament. People would understand why they were having an election then.

    If the Tories go for autumn 2023, people will think that it is out of the ordinary. And the media will not disappoint them by explaining why the election is happening then.

    I therefore think May 2024 is the most likely time for the next election.
    I don't know, if the government is doing well then going after four years is pretty normal too. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 were all after four years.

    Pre-FTPA it was losing governments that tended to leave it the full five years. See 1997 and 2010.

    Autumn 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal', early enough that they're not leaving it to the last minute, plus they get the boundaries through. That seems like the sweet spot to me.
    I think May 2023 is late enough to be within 'normal'.
    That's confusing, you just said autumn 2023 wouldn't be within normal but earlier than that is? 🤔

    May 2023 is old boundaries. Autumn 2023 is new boundaries. Once you've reached the normal range it probably makes sense to wait a few months until the proper boundaries are in place.
    No, I didn't say autumn 2023 wasn't within normal. I said that autumn elections are unusual and people would wonder why they were voting then and not in the Spring. And the answer is very simple. The boundaries. And when people realise this, and they will be told by Labour and the media over and over again, they won't be impressed.
    I don't think so, after all Gordon Brown nearly went with an election in the autumn and the media was OK with that until he chickened out.

    The media love an election. It gives them great attention, great coverage, a guaranteed string of stories to report on. The issue in the last few years is public burnout, from 2014 to 2019 the only year without a General Election or Referendum was 2018, hence the "not another one" outburst in 2017 it was the fourth year in a row.

    Come autumn 2023 the last election will be a reasonable time away, people won't have voted in anything major in years. It will be exciting for the media and they'd love it.

    Plus I'm not sure the boundaries will be odd to people. The old set of boundaries are decades out of date, having new ones long overdue isn't unreasonable (especially since there's no reduction in numbers this time) and waiting until up to date ones in place isn't odd.
    You're right to mention the Gordon Brown fiasco. If the Tories want to go for autumn 2023, then they need to announce the date six months out. They absolutely cannot allow a will they/won't they narrative to develop during the year.

    Yes, the media love an election. But they love a close election even more. So don't expect the media to play nice.

    There's nothing wrong with the boundary changes; indeed, I am in favour of them. But if you hold an election in the autumn, people will wonder why it's happening then. The Tories can say "well, we wanted to wait until the new boundaries were in place", which is fine, but the next question is "why not just wait until May 2024?" And the answer? "We're worried things will go to shit before then."

    If you go a year early, no one thinks "oh, they think things are going to go wrong in the next year." Going a year early was what Thatcher and Blair did. People are fine with it. But if you hold an election outside of the usual period, people will wonder what the government is worried about.
    It's pretty simple isn't it? Four years is the "normal" gap between elections, so that's why we'll have another autumn/winter election.
    If that's the line the Tories want to spin, then fine, but I'm not sure it will wash to be honest.

    As I said, if the Tories are thinking about going in autumn 2023, then they have to make the call in early 2023. Ideally, they'd have the PM give a big speech in April where he'd announce the date of the election and set out his vision for the next four (definitely can't say five!) years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,459

    AlistairM said:

    Sad news.


    Ex-MP Frank Field announces he is terminally ill as he backs assisted dying law

    This is very sad. I have never been a Labour supporter but Frank Field is a thoroughly decent man who deserves everyone's respect for a lifetime of service.
    Absolutely. A politician who understood that it was all about public service.
    Other than keeping Brown in charge of the economy for his whole time in office, the worst thing about Blair domestically IMHO is the way he treated Frank Field.

    "Think the unthinkable" Blair said. So Frank did, and he was fired as a result.
    Please don't take this as me being churlish - FF is/was an interesting politician with interesting ideas and an independent spirit - but I could never help noticing that he always topped the (imaginary since there wasn't one) list of "Labour MPs liked a lot by people who always vote Tory". I guess there are equivalents the other way. Eg David Gauke. Or maybe that's projection from me since I like David Gauke. There are not too many I like in this Johnson cabinet, sadly. Perhaps none at all. Big shame since respect and affection across the divide is a great thing and we need more of it. Seems there used to be more of it too, unless that's the old 'rose tinting' coming into play.
This discussion has been closed.