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This polling trend doesn’t look good for ministers – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageThis polling trend doesn’t look good for ministers – politicalbetting.com

Ex-PBer and now Ipsos-MORI polling director, Keiran Pedley, made this comment:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    edited October 20
    this is why i'm not rushing to back a Conservative Majority at the next election. The headwinds will be fierce imo.

    and first.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,858
    edited October 20
    Interesting. I wonder how much of this is perception of current Covid situation dominated? Does the tracker go back much further?

    (and second, like 'right direction')
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945
    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    jonny83 said:

    49,139 positive COVID cases and a further 179 deaths in the latest 24-hour period

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    What are the excess deaths figures looking like at the moment.
    From earlier...

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    09/07/2021: 183, 386
    16/07/2021: 218, 229
    23/07/2021: 327, 324
    30/07/2021: 404, 679
    06/08/2021: 527, 624
    13/08/2021: 571, 699
    20/08/2021: 570, 358
    27/08/2021: 668, 443
    03/09/2021: 659, -103 (bank holiday)
    10/09/2021: 857, 996 (after bank holiday)
    17/09/2021: 851, 852
    24/09/2021: 888, 532
    01/10/2021: 783, 350
    08/10/2021: 666, 586

    So overall we're running at around 1,200 extra deaths a week. Non-COVID excess deaths is around 500 a week.
    Excess death stats are good, but they're a bit hazy anyway as the random variation in a single week must be significant when compared to a 5 year average of that particular week.

    One thing with no restrictions (hopefully) this winter, deaths from other viruses which were crushed by lockdown (Mainly flu) should return to their normal levels. Though again flu can be very random.
    Excess deaths is a good metric, but not for cherry picking any particular week I think.
    Err, you'll notice I've posted 14 weeks worth of data.
    Yes, but I looked a bit further back - we had negative excess deaths over the summer !
    Have the whole year then!

    Week ending: COVID deaths, non-COVID deaths in excess of the five-year average

    08-Jan-21: 6,057, -481
    15-Jan-21: 7,245, -3,025
    22-Jan-21: 8,422, -2,962
    29-Jan-21: 8,433, -2,745
    05-Feb-21: 7,320, -2,334
    12-Feb-21: 5,691, -2,262
    19-Feb-21: 4,079, -1,897
    26-Feb-21: 2,914, -1,848
    05-Mar-21: 2,105, -1,696
    12-Mar-21: 1,501, -2,012
    19-Mar-21: 963, -1,857
    26-Mar-21: 719, -1,247
    02-Apr-21: 400, -2,329
    09-Apr-21: 379, -1,586
    16-Apr-21: 362, -444
    23-Apr-21: 260, -816
    30-Apr-21: 205, -971
    07-May-21: 129, -2,084
    14-May-21: 151, 437
    21-May-21: 107, -435
    28-May-21: 95, -407
    04-Jun-21: 98, -491
    11-Jun-21: 84, 143
    18-Jun-21: 102, -60
    25-Jun-21: 99, -813
    02-Jul-21: 109, -594
    09-Jul-21: 183, 386
    16-Jul-21: 218, 229
    23-Jul-21: 327, 324
    30-Jul-21: 404, 679
    06-Aug-21: 527, 624
    13-Aug-21: 571, 699
    20-Aug-21: 570, 358
    27-Aug-21: 668, 443
    03-Sep-21: 659, -103
    10-Sep-21: 857, 996
    17-Sep-21: 851, 852
    24-Sep-21: 888, 532
    01-Oct-21: 783, 350
    08-Oct-21: 666, 586

    Unpicking this is tricky as there are deaths brought forward by COVID and there are deaths put back by lockdown. But it seems clear to me that unless we do impose significant restrictions, we're going to be catching up on the c.30,000 deaths avoided at the start of the year.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,811
    5m adults not had the vaccine...yikes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,424

    5m adults not had the vaccine...yikes.

    That is a lot of potential hospital cases. I wonder how many in the more vulnerable over 50 group?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945
    Anyone heard from the excellent David Herdson? One few pundits who is unerringly accurate about where the Tories stand.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,482
    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    Hahahaha

    HAHAHA
    Did I put the 'joke' symbol on that post? No, I don't think I did. So ...
    When the history of this era is written, I'm not sure that being associated with the decisions taken in 2008 (not to mention the regulatory framework in the preceding decade) will be seen as a positive.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266
    edited October 20
    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 993
    Government not spooked enough yet, they acknowledge we are in a position that could be about to turn really bad but just relying on people to be vigilant and get jabbed.

    With all their might they will resist implementing anything like we saw in the past, BUT I hope they do have plans in place and are ready to implement them if they simply have to. IF they don't we could be in real trouble again this winter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Roger said:

    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.

    Or they could live in one of the 28 European countries (including Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Greece) that rank lower down the "UN Happiness Index" than the UK:

    https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/happiest-countries-europe

    The only large European country ahead of the UK is Germany.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740
    Optician sitrep. No gaps I could see on the shelves of the Sainsbury's Local but it was full of schoolchildren buying sandwiches for lunch so hard to be sure. Masks on buses around 50 per cent. Almost got run over because the sun's glare was too great – the optician's eye drops had jammed my eyes at fully dilated.
  • An avoidable situation but sadly predictable from Boris Johnson's government.

    Two million people eligible for booster jabs have not yet been invited to make appointments as GPs insist that the government needs to do more to get vaccines to the vulnerable.

    NHS England says that vaccination is speeding up, with 199,008 jabs yesterday, taking the total number of boosters administered in England to more than four million.

    But many older people are complaining that they are not being invited and are unable to book in for appointments despite being eligible because their second dose was more than six months ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-two-million-vulnerable-people-have-not-been-offered-covid-booster-jab-mrwgh20w9
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534

    FPT:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    jonny83 said:

    49,139 positive COVID cases and a further 179 deaths in the latest 24-hour period

    This is where the usual suspects will insist that most or all of these are deaths "with covid" that would otherwise have happened anyway. Because an average of 1 in 1890 of the UK population, hugely skewed towards children, would expect to have 150+ deaths per day, wouldn't they?
    Some very simple sums show it isn't the case.
    Exactly. Yet some intelligent and mathematically adept people come out with the line, still.

    I did assume for a long while that the denialism was down to straightforward fear and inability to accept a painful reality.

    But a friend pointed out something else recently: a virus cannot be argued with, cannot be pressured, cannot be fired, cannot have public sentiment whipped up against it, cannot be voted out, and cannot be blamed.

    If you can decide that a person was responsible, then they can be argued with, pressured, fired, have public opinion whipped up against them, voted out, and certainly be blamed.

    There is therefore a big psychological draw to finding some way of blaming a person. If you accept that the virus is the key issue and that things like restrictions do the job - who can you blame? Who can you put pressure on? If it's the virus, it doesn't care. If, though, you can find a way to rationalise that it's NOT the virus but the Government/modellers/SAGE/other scientists and it was lockdown and restrictions that were the problem and not covid, then it's psychologically easier.

    I don't know how much truth there may be to that, but it did make me stop and think.
    Whilst I agree with you, I'd appreciate it if you'd acknowledge that vaccines have changed the game. Sure, deaths due to COVID among the vaccinated will be knocking off life, but it will be nowhere near the same as when we weren't vaccinated.
    Oh, absolutely. We'd be in a very different place without them.

    We're looking at covid being maybe 2-3 times as deadly as influenza for all ages for those vaccinated (versus 20-30x for the unvaccinated). It still causes a significant problem because when it's rampant, it would also end up infecting the majority of the population and doing so in a few months (vice about a quarter to a third for an influenza outbreak).

    So, with the vaxxed, we're looking at a situation about 5-10x as bad as a bad seasonal influenza outbreak. Which can cause considerable damage and unacceptable pressure on hospitals - but in comparison to last year, it's not even in the same league, let alone division.

    Add to that the data from the booster shots looking like they reduce danger/deadliness by over a further factor of ten, and when the booster rollout is done, we're done.

    As it stands, thanks to the vaccines, we actually only need to reduce R by about 20% to hit stability until the booster rollout is done. Could have been done by vaxxing all the teens (and should have been done by now).

    Or maybe masking and encouraging WFH until the booster programme is out might be enough. Certainly no need for a hard lockdown, in my considered opinion.

    Absolute worst-case I can see would be a 4-5 week return to Step 3 of the roadmap, but I suspect the masks/WFH would probably do the trick. It'll take us 4-5 weeks to see the benefit of a much accelerated teen jabs/booster jabs programme, so that should see us emerge from it.
    You're overthinking this. By all accounts (literally every doctor I know) the people with severe COVID are unvaccinated or very old and already in death's waiting room. Suggesting NPIs to halt those deaths seems unwise given the economic hit it entails.
    Most recent four weeks on record, serious illness resulting in hospitalisation by age group and vaccination status (they don't add up completely because single jabbed and only-double-jabbed-a-few-days-ago make up the balance):



    And the potential need isn't for the unvaxxed. Personally, I'd say sod them. The problem is that their insistence on relying on natural immunity invariably expires the moment they get seriously ill and they go to unnatural hospitals and take up unnatural beds and require the attention of doctors and nurses giving them unnatural drugs (sometimes experimental) and unnatural ICU support.

    Which screws things up for literally everyone else.

    A&E unavailability, ambulances stacked outside the hospital unable to unload patients, longer and longer waits for everything - the potential for much of the NHS being unavailable to everyone else is the risk.

    If the unvaxxed would have the courage of their convictions and quietly expire at home, we'd be fine.
    a bit brutal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    Hahahaha

    HAHAHA
    Did I put the 'joke' symbol on that post? No, I don't think I did. So ...
    When the history of this era is written, I'm not sure that being associated with the decisions taken in 2008 (not to mention the regulatory framework in the preceding decade) will be seen as a positive.
    Preceding decade, true. But the response could have been catastrophically worse.
    It is just possible that we can admit that the same person is capable of having done both good and bad things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,482
    edited October 20
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
    Overall fewer voters, 49%, think the country is on the wrong path than the 55% who are not currently voting Conservative with Redfield.

    So if the Tories can win over that 6% and the don't knows it could even increase its poll lead
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,979

    Roger said:

    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.

    Or they could live in one of the 28 European countries (including Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Greece) that rank lower down the "UN Happiness Index" than the UK:

    https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/happiest-countries-europe

    The only large European country ahead of the UK is Germany.
    Alles ist in Ordnung!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945
    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?
  • Listening to this press conference and seeing the charts it is clear cases are rising but hospitalisations and deaths seem to be far less than previously but the stark truth from the charts it is the unvaccinated who are the ones responsible and they need calling out
  • Roger said:

    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?

    Or dreary poster
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Roger said:

    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.

    Or they could live in one of the 28 European countries (including Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Greece) that rank lower down the "UN Happiness Index" than the UK:

    https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/happiest-countries-europe

    The only large European country ahead of the UK is Germany.
    If I'm happy, does it mean I'm happy with the government?
    Is it easier to be happy in a small country?
  • Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    Out of interest, where's the PB 'if we can't stop wearing masks now we never will' brigade?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    The biggest news from that conference:

    If not been contacted for a booster within a week of being eligible

    Go online https://nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/book-or-manage-a-booster-dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/ or call 119 and book in.

    Spread it around.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1450863057329131530?s=20
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534
    Roger said:

    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?

    I could live with dreary if he started to be more proactive rather than reactive. This government reminds me of a school management team reacting to poor results and a poor ofsted rather than beefing up the plans to avoid the occurences.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. F, I fear you might be right. They're still absolutely horrendous, though.

    It'd just grow, sinking its roots until we had our very own social credit system.

    Mr. Leon, I'd kill her, then have pizza and Margarita Shooters.

    Already had the vaxport discussion with a progressive type. They were all in favour until I pointed out that illegal immigrants, with no papers....
    It's rare that a 'progressive type' comes away intact from an encounter with you, Malmesbury, isn't it?
    Bit like fish vs the dynamite fisherman. When you are deliberately dropping hand grenades...

    The point I was making to the person in question is that illiberal measures always sound good. Until one of your "in" groups gets hit by them.

    A year from now, 10, they'll swing back to the belief that they can make people...better. And I do not hold to that.
  • On topic, this won't help the government, also warned them cutting the UC uplift earlier on this month was a mistake.

    Rishi Sunak is understood to be planning an extension of a coronavirus loan guarantee scheme to help protect businesses next year amid signs that Britain’s economic recovery has lost momentum.

    The chancellor is expected to use his budget speech next week to announce a six-month extension of the government’s recovery loan scheme that had been due to end on December 31. The planned delay to the end of the scheme was first reported by Bloomberg.

    The scheme was launched in April as a bridge between the more generous coronavirus loan schemes and more normal credit conditions.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-to-extend-covid-recovery-loan-scheme-gf76nzpsg
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,534

    The biggest news from that conference:

    If not been contacted for a booster within a week of being eligible

    Go online https://nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/book-or-manage-a-booster-dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/ or call 119 and book in.

    Spread it around.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1450863057329131530?s=20

    Is this an "England" decision or a "UK" decision.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    edited October 20

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    A friend who is Saudi, but looks as white as Prince Philip, has had stick from people for wearing the head dress of his country.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,740
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
    You can believe things are not going well and still vote Tory. You may believe that the other side will do worse. You may accept that no government does everything well. You might think a one-off pandemic is a black swan event and at the next election you'll be voting for other, more normal things. Or you may think this isn't a very good government but you're not going to vote Labour.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
    Overall fewer voters, 49%, think the country is on the wrong path than the 55% who are not currently voting Conservative with Redfield.

    So if the Tories can win over that 6% and the don't knows it could even increase its poll lead
    Perhaps if the government can persuade 6% of the tanks that aren't outside Baghdad to switch sides...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945

    Roger said:

    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.

    Or they could live in one of the 28 European countries (including Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Greece) that rank lower down the "UN Happiness Index" than the UK:

    https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/happiest-countries-europe

    The only large European country ahead of the UK is Germany.
    Lies damn lies and statistics....there are 10 EU countries happier than we are including Ireland and Luxembourg! Aren't the HDR photos psychedelic?
  • TazTaz Posts: 2,475

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Wonderful joy sponges.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,354
    Always remember that if the economy does badly and it feels as if the country is in a difficult position then that may well help the Conservatives.

    The point is that floating voters feel they can risk Labour (and that the country deserves a splurge) when everything is looking pretty good.

    Whereas if we're in a crisis then they feel they can't take a chance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013

    The biggest news from that conference:

    If not been contacted for a booster within a week of being eligible

    Go online https://nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/book-or-manage-a-booster-dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/ or call 119 and book in.

    Spread it around.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1450863057329131530?s=20

    Is this an "England" decision or a "UK" decision.
    "England".

    Health is devolved.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
    You can believe things are not going well and still vote Tory. You may believe that the other side will do worse. You may accept that no government does everything well. You might think a one-off pandemic is a black swan event and at the next election you'll be voting for other, more normal things. Or you may think this isn't a very good government but you're not going to vote Labour.
    Quite so! This poll is not fatal to the government by any means. But it is interesting, especially given the steepness of the decline. Something is going wrong in the court of public opinion, and it's useful to know what.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    When it comes to keeping Covid-19 at bay, few countries seem willing to go as far as China.

    As countries around the world reopen borders and loosen coronavirus restrictions, Beijing is doubling down on its zero-Covid strategy. The latest example: a $260 million, 5,000-room quarantine facility for incoming travelers set to open in the southern metropolis of Guangzhou in the coming days.

    Comprised of rows of three-story buildings topped with gray roofs in traditional Chinese style, the massive complex spans an area the size of 46 football fields and took less than three months to be built from scratch on the outskirts of the city.


    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/29/china/guangzhou-covid-quarantine-center-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,013
    Message in this press conference clear.

    Covid is not over. Cases/hospitalisations on the rise. Plan B not yet, but depends on public behaviour/people 'doing their bit'.

    Get your jabs "not just to save lives, but to keep your freedoms too"


    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1450865583252283392?s=20
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    Cancel Sir Humphrey...

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/H-aibUV-Ltg/maxresdefault.jpg
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited October 20

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Kick it Out! turns into a Students Union...

    Have they come up with a list of people who were offended?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,808
    edited October 20
    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    Wonderful, Rene !

    Though they may have been "wiring the bag whote gorment"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    MattW said:

    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    Wonderful, Rene !

    Though they may have been "wiring the bag whote gorment"
    They were lucky not to be arrested for "heat crimes".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    See also the arguments over the Exeter Chiefs, though, as far as I am aware, the Kansas City Chiefs aren't under the same sort of pressure to change their name.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you look at the latest Redfield poll 55% are already voting Labour, LD, SNP and Green. So I doubt 49% unhappy with the way things are going means a Labour poll lead given almost all that 49% will not be voting Tory already anyway

    There's a minimum of 18% of the country who voted Conservative that think the country is on the wrong path. That, I think, is the interesting bit.

    There are even a few on this site, if you listen to them instead of calling them turncoats.
    Overall fewer voters, 49%, think the country is on the wrong path than the 55% who are not currently voting Conservative with Redfield.

    So if the Tories can win over that 6% and the don't knows it could even increase its poll lead
    do they have a poll with the Tories on 45%? latest Redfield I've seen had Tories 40%, non-Tories 60%.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,945

    On topic, this won't help the government, also warned them cutting the UC uplift earlier on this month was a mistake.

    Rishi Sunak is understood to be planning an extension of a coronavirus loan guarantee scheme to help protect businesses next year amid signs that Britain’s economic recovery has lost momentum.

    The chancellor is expected to use his budget speech next week to announce a six-month extension of the government’s recovery loan scheme that had been due to end on December 31. The planned delay to the end of the scheme was first reported by Bloomberg.

    The scheme was launched in April as a bridge between the more generous coronavirus loan schemes and more normal credit conditions.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-to-extend-covid-recovery-loan-scheme-gf76nzpsg

    A great example of a Newcastle sense of humour. I loved it. All the kids -boys and girls -wearing alice bands at MUFC is also funny.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    Apparently you can make an appointment directly on line if you qualify
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    When I went to a Moroccan wedding the family insisted on us westerners wearing Djellaba - which they bought for us.

    At the actual wedding, all the young men in the family got rather Mafia style suits made by a local tailor. On the day of the wedding - made then and there. Given that quite a few of them were actually in the secret police, we found this strangely.... appropriate.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,693
    Roger said:

    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?

    Haha. Made me chuckle and you know what so true! :)

    Sometimes you have to laugh particularly with the sleazy, incompetent Government that we have all to endure.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,693

    Roger said:

    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?

    Or dreary poster
    Give over BigG - Roger's comment made me chuckle!
  • murali_s said:

    Roger said:

    OT. Javid makes Hancock sound like MLK! Has there ever been a more dreary politician?

    Or dreary poster
    Give over BigG - Roger's comment made me chuckle!
    I am sure they did
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    Like death? Vaccinations started with the most vulnerable and oldest groups. A fair few may no longer be with us.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,406

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    If 1.5 million people are ignoring them, something has gone wrong.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    i dont think that should be any more offensive than seeing a Middle Eastern man in a suit. ie not at all. might even be seen as an attempt to assimilate.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770
    MattW said:

    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    Wonderful, Rene !

    Though they may have been "wiring the bag whote gorment"
    BR is dyslexic.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    If 1.5 million people are ignoring them, something has gone wrong.
    4 million have received the booster so 5.5 million invitations issued

    Just over 20% not taking it up
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,693

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    And that is the problem. Nail on head. Government = incompetent; PM = Disingenuous Clown!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited October 20

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    Covid vaccination rollout: How is Wales leading the UK and the world?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,719
    I was disappointed that Newcastle didn't replace Mark Knopfler with The Clash.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    That's a massive fucking problem. Something else my university friend pointed out was that 6 months is a long gap even for an early programme like ours. A gap of 4.5 months would work better for the UK as almost all 32m people in groups 1-9 become eligible by the end of November rather than by the end of December. The efficacy difference for that extra wait will be "tiny" based on the trial data and evidence from Israel vs our own data.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 538
    Interesting chat with a colleague today which shines a light on the challenge Labour are facing. Proper lefty, young and urban based, avowed remainer, "woke" in the various ways the anti-woke would bristle at...but commented in a chat today that, and I quote, "I think Boris understands what the public wants, and Labour just seem to want to lock us down forever" (dear reader: neither is true, but it's easy to see why he gets this impression) and "at least you can rely on Boris to deliver on his promises" (what?? has he been watching these last 2 years?? It turns out this last comment is based on him having delivered Brexit, and acted on his promise to break international law).

    Then on the flip side there are people like me who a. would answer that yes, I think things in Great Britain are moving in the right direction, and b. would not vote for that rabble who call themselves a government if you paid me.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    TimS said:

    Interesting chat with a colleague today which shines a light on the challenge Labour are facing. Proper lefty, young and urban based, avowed remainer, "woke" in the various ways the anti-woke would bristle at...but commented in a chat today that, and I quote, "I think Boris understands what the public wants, and Labour just seem to want to lock us down forever" (dear reader: neither is true, but it's easy to see why he gets this impression) and "at least you can rely on Boris to deliver on his promises" (what?? has he been watching these last 2 years?? It turns out this last comment is based on him having delivered Brexit, and acted on his promise to break international law).

    Then on the flip side there are people like me who a. would answer that yes, I think things in Great Britain are moving in the right direction, and b. would not vote for that rabble who call themselves a government if you paid me.

    There's a place in the sun which Boris has spotted. He's done little in following the path to it though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    That's a massive fucking problem. Something else my university friend pointed out was that 6 months is a long gap even for an early programme like ours. A gap of 4.5 months would work better for the UK as almost all 32m people in groups 1-9 become eligible by the end of November rather than by the end of December. The efficacy difference for that extra wait will be "tiny" based on the trial data and evidence from Israel vs our own data.
    He also blames the JCVI for this, saying they've taken too lax an attitude to booster shots, especially for people aged 60+.

    I liked his idea of making everyone eligible for a third dose and making three doses of vaccine a complete course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    I had a txt today from GP saying when you get your letter ring us as we are doing boosters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,740
    TimS said:

    Interesting chat with a colleague today which shines a light on the challenge Labour are facing. Proper lefty, young and urban based, avowed remainer, "woke" in the various ways the anti-woke would bristle at...but commented in a chat today that, and I quote, "I think Boris understands what the public wants, and Labour just seem to want to lock us down forever" (dear reader: neither is true, but it's easy to see why he gets this impression) and "at least you can rely on Boris to deliver on his promises" (what?? has he been watching these last 2 years?? It turns out this last comment is based on him having delivered Brexit, and acted on his promise to break international law).

    Then on the flip side there are people like me who a. would answer that yes, I think things in Great Britain are moving in the right direction, and b. would not vote for that rabble who call themselves a government if you paid me.

    Look at today's PMQs for another example. Starmer serious and dispassionate in trying to get cooperation on making women safer. Boris (by the end) is ranting about blocking parole, which is at best a related but different matter and probably not even that. But to the casual viewer, it is Boris who is on the public's and women's side and Starmer being legalistic and uncaring.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,594
    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    That's a massive fucking problem. Something else my university friend pointed out was that 6 months is a long gap even for an early programme like ours. A gap of 4.5 months would work better for the UK as almost all 32m people in groups 1-9 become eligible by the end of November rather than by the end of December. The efficacy difference for that extra wait will be "tiny" based on the trial data and evidence from Israel vs our own data.
    Thanks - that's interesting. I was wondering where the six months came from.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    How many times has a governing party lost more than 50 seats at an election?
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That's still fewer than the two million people eligible for booster jabs who have not yet been invited to make appointments.
    That's a massive fucking problem. Something else my university friend pointed out was that 6 months is a long gap even for an early programme like ours. A gap of 4.5 months would work better for the UK as almost all 32m people in groups 1-9 become eligible by the end of November rather than by the end of December. The efficacy difference for that extra wait will be "tiny" based on the trial data and evidence from Israel vs our own data.
    He also blames the JCVI for this, saying they've taken too lax an attitude to booster shots, especially for people aged 60+.

    I liked his idea of making everyone eligible for a third dose and making three doses of vaccine a complete course.
    Get him to speak to Big G, Big G will explain why he shouldn't worry.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,827

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    If 1.5 million people are ignoring them, something has gone wrong.
    4 million have received the booster so 5.5 million invitations issued

    Just over 20% not taking it up
    How much of that 20% are health and social workers? And how many are because of the chaotic organisational skills of most gp surgeries?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I wonder why the provisioning system has broken, it's been absolutely amazing throughout. Maybe the private company who kept it running has been sacked.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,693
    edited October 20
    moonshine said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    If 1.5 million people are ignoring them, something has gone wrong.
    4 million have received the booster so 5.5 million invitations issued

    Just over 20% not taking it up
    How much of that 20% are health and social workers? And how many are because of the chaotic organisational skills of most gp surgeries?
    BigG won't have a bad word said against this competent and caring Government led by a titan of a PM. They are the bee's knees aren't they BigG?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited October 20
    Andy_JS said:

    How many times has a governing party lost more than 50 seats at an election?

    Since WWII.

    2010, 1997, 1979, 1970, 1964, 1950, and 1945.

    Edit - Honourable mention to the Lib Dems who lost 49 seats at the 2015 GE.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I thought you said you had not had your booster and actually before my 82 year old wife and I

    JCVI were wrong on their delayed advice and I do not come at this from an anti HMG stance
  • MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I wonder why the provisioning system has broken, it's been absolutely amazing throughout. Maybe the private company who kept it running has been sacked.
    My father and his colleagues who worked on the first wave of the vaccine rollout and so furious and saddened by this.

    The government has taken their eye off the ball.

    There was only upsides and no downsides for the government in ensuring a successful booster jab rollout.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    I had a txt today from GP saying when you get your letter ring us as we are doing boosters.
    Seems that confirms letters are being sent just as ours were and we had follow up texts just before our appointment
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I thought you said you had not had your booster and actually before my 82 year old wife and I

    JCVI were wrong on their delayed advice and I do not come at this from an anti HMG stance
    I've mentioned on here I've had my booster jab at the start of October.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 24,566
    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I wonder why the provisioning system has broken, it's been absolutely amazing throughout. Maybe the private company who kept it running has been sacked.
    Might it be a shortage of trained staff? During the earlier campaigns for first and second Covid jabs I know a lot of GP surgery staff were helping out at the vaccination centres at weekends and evenings. Now they are in full swing with the Flu jab campaign as well and I wonder if we simply don't have the people to administer all the jabs?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Omnium said:

    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.

    Wera Hobhouse is a nutjob who thinks 5G might have some connection to Covid.

    The only good LibDem MP is Alistair Carmichael, if only because he winds @malcolmg up rotten.
  • Another issue I'm having with the booster jab (and so are a few other people I've spoken to), the booster jab isn't showing in our vaccine record in the NHS App.

    We were told at the time of the booster jab it would show in the NHS App within a week.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I thought you said you had not had your booster and actually before my 82 year old wife and I

    JCVI were wrong on their delayed advice and I do not come at this from an anti HMG stance
    Big G the issue is that of the 7.5m eligible people for booster jabs only 5.5m have been added to the list. 2m people who are past their 6 months aren't able to book appointments because the government hasn't added their names to the list of people who can book. It's a big problem and I'm grateful that both of my parents were contacted but really worrying for those people who are still waiting and wondering whether they will get their chance.

    I don't think it's an issue to acknowledge that this needs to be fixed ASAP so everyone can get their opportunity to be safe for the winter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.

    Wera Hobhouse is a nutjob who thinks 5G might have some connection to Covid.

    The only good LibDem MP is Alistair Carmichael, if only because he winds @malcolmg up rotten.
    Ok, I didn't know that. Perhaps a hurdle or two then for her.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,309
    edited October 20
    murali_s said:

    moonshine said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    If 1.5 million people are ignoring them, something has gone wrong.
    4 million have received the booster so 5.5 million invitations issued

    Just over 20% not taking it up
    How much of that 20% are health and social workers? And how many are because of the chaotic organisational skills of most gp surgeries?
    BigG won't have a bad word said against this competent and caring Government led by a titan of a PM. They are the bee's knees aren't they BigG?
    You obviously do not follow my posts where I have been very critical of the government and indeed I am not a member of the conservative party anymore

    The problem for many of is that the other parties are worse
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,266
    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I thought you said you had not had your booster and actually before my 82 year old wife and I

    JCVI were wrong on their delayed advice and I do not come at this from an anti HMG stance
    Big G the issue is that of the 7.5m eligible people for booster jabs only 5.5m have been added to the list. 2m people who are past their 6 months aren't able to book appointments because the government hasn't added their names to the list of people who can book. It's a big problem and I'm grateful that both of my parents were contacted but really worrying for those people who are still waiting and wondering whether they will get their chance.

    I don't think it's an issue to acknowledge that this needs to be fixed ASAP so everyone can get their opportunity to be safe for the winter.
    Do we know of any pattern of who has or hasn't been added? Geography, age, health records, etc?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,420

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    When you say 'not turned up' do you mean, they have booked slots and not turned up, or that they have been sent letter and not gone on to book slots? if its the latter could that be an indication that the letters have been sent to wrong address and/or where badly worded? or some other admin errer?

    Presumably these are going to people who have had the first 2 doses so should not the normal anti-vax people?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    Roger said:

    Lets hope so while there's still a country to save. If anyone can say that they've ever heard more concerted discontent with any government than they have with this one then they don't live in the UK.

    Or they could live in one of the 28 European countries (including Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Greece) that rank lower down the "UN Happiness Index" than the UK:

    https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/non-economic-data/happiest-countries-europe

    The only large European country ahead of the UK is Germany.
    Albeit, there are a lot of *small* European countries ahead of us. In order...

    Finland, Denmark, Switzerland, Iceland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Luxembourg, Austria, Germany and Ireland...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    MaxPB said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    That suggests to me something has gone systemically wrong with the invitations.
    People ignoring them no doubt
    Email software classifying them as spam so they are never seen?
    Ours were by post and text follow ups
    But you live in Wales, land of Mark Drakeford, he has been awesome on the vaccine rollout.

    You don't know how lucky you are to have him.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57270903
    Are you saying England do not issue letters and follow up texts
    You are missing the point.

    How can there be any follow up when the original invitation hasn't been sent, in any form?
    Maybe you should go online
    We have.

    I mean I had my booster jab three weeks ago but I know people who are eligible for their jabs like now, they go online (or I on their behalf) and get told they aren't eligible then call 119 who are way too busy.

    But you keep on defending this screw up.
    I wonder why the provisioning system has broken, it's been absolutely amazing throughout. Maybe the private company who kept it running has been sacked.
    Might it be a shortage of trained staff? During the earlier campaigns for first and second Covid jabs I know a lot of GP surgery staff were helping out at the vaccination centres at weekends and evenings. Now they are in full swing with the Flu jab campaign as well and I wonder if we simply don't have the people to administer all the jabs?
    Nah, the issue is that people aren't being provisioned at 6 months. They just aren't being made eligible to book, appointments are available.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    Looks like Zahawi got out at the right time (for him, if not for the country).

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/maggie-throup-new-vaccine-minister-1204015
This discussion has been closed.