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This polling trend doesn’t look good for ministers – politicalbetting.com

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  • @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    edited October 2021

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Which of the following Prime Minister’s would you choose to have handled the Covid-19 outbreak?

    Margaret Thatcher - 29%
    Tony Blair - 14%
    Gordon Brown - 10%
    Boris Johnson- 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1450843236474494977?s=20

    Brown is too low there. He should be top on this one. Look how he coordinated the global response to the bank crash. The GLOBAL response, note.
    Hahahaha

    HAHAHA
    Did I put the 'joke' symbol on that post? No, I don't think I did. So ...
    When the history of this era is written, I'm not sure that being associated with the decisions taken in 2008 (not to mention the regulatory framework in the preceding decade) will be seen as a positive.
    No need to wait, the verdict is in. The financial sector lost its marbles and politicians, regulators and central banks on both sides of the Atlantic were fooled or colluded. The co-ordinated crisis response by governments (which Brown played a key role in formulating) is about the only thing that will emerge with any credit from the whole shitshow. It is utterly astonishing (and dispiriting) to me that a scandal of such magnitude caused primarily by unfettered greed and incompetence in uber capitalist institutions which then had to be bailed out with the bill foisted on ordinary people led to a shift right in politics not left. Grrrr.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Another issue I'm having with the booster jab (and so are a few other people I've spoken to), the booster jab isn't showing in our vaccine record in the NHS App.

    We were told at the time of the booster jab it would show in the NHS App within a week.

    It's supposed to take 48 hours perhaps 72 Max to update once on the system. At our Hospital Hub we aim to get it on the National database that same day so the app can update as quickly as possible. So it all depends on when it was put on and then how quickly the software communicates with each each other.

    On a separate note I have a sore arm from my booster this morning. But it's a happy ache in my eyes, so relieved to finally get my booster.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.

    Wera Hobhouse is a nutjob who thinks 5G might have some connection to Covid.

    The only good LibDem MP is Alistair Carmichael, if only because he winds @malcolmg up rotten.
    I was up in the Orkney islands this summer, (lovely place) which is Alister Carmichaels constituency, and by chance found myself standing outside of his constituency office, his name was in big letter, but id could not find a single bit that sead Labral Democrats anywhere. Nothing wrong with that, maybe sensible for him in that constancy, but I did think it was odd.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,963
    edited October 2021

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
  • Pulpstar said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
    Is it not ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
    Is it not ?
    No, it's not.
  • Pulpstar said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
    Is it not ?
    No, it's not.
    Why

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738
    edited October 2021
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.

    Wera Hobhouse is a nutjob who thinks 5G might have some connection to Covid.

    The only good LibDem MP is Alistair Carmichael, if only because he winds @malcolmg up rotten.
    I was up in the Orkney islands this summer, (lovely place) which is Alister Carmichaels constituency, and by chance found myself standing outside of his constituency office, his name was in big letter, but id could not find a single bit that sead Labral Democrats anywhere. Nothing wrong with that, maybe sensible for him in that constancy, but I did think it was odd.
    The explanation is simple, AIUI. In Scotland, Holyrood constituency offices are paid for by the Scottish Parliament, and the MP is not allowed to use them for parrty advertising - in this case Liam McArthur MSP shares his with his fellow LD Mr Carmichael.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
    Is it not ?
    No, it's not.
    Why

    Never assume. It makes an ass out of u and me.

    Something could have gone wrong with the distribution of the letters. Something could be wrong with the database. Something could be wrong with the addresses on file.

    Plenty of scope for things to go wrong.

    Relying on mail for this isn't very good.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Carnyx said:

    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Which bunch of clowns do you prefer is the main question. As I post this I'm listening to Javid. Not inspiring.

    I guess he's not so bad, but he is worse than Hancock.

    Labour would of course be far, far worse.

    LD's, Greens - they just don't have the people. The only good LD MP is Weira Hobhouse.

    Wera Hobhouse is a nutjob who thinks 5G might have some connection to Covid.

    The only good LibDem MP is Alistair Carmichael, if only because he winds @malcolmg up rotten.
    I was up in the Orkney islands this summer, (lovely place) which is Alister Carmichaels constituency, and by chance found myself standing outside of his constituency office, his name was in big letter, but id could not find a single bit that sead Labral Democrats anywhere. Nothing wrong with that, maybe sensible for him in that constancy, but I did think it was odd.
    The explanation is simple, AIUI. In Scotland, Holyrood constituency offices are paid for by the Scottish Parliament, and the MP is not allowed to use them for parrty advertising - in this case Liam McArthur MSP shares his with his fellow LD Mr Carmichael.
    Thanks, That makes sense,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,963
    edited October 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    I do not know but that was the figure announced at the press conference

    As they will have had both vaccines it seems reasonable to assume the letters were addressed correctly so either they are being ignored or people do not think the booster matters
    Oh my sweet summer child...
    Is it not ?
    No, it's not.
    Why

    Never assume. It makes an ass out of u and me.

    Something could have gone wrong with the distribution of the letters. Something could be wrong with the database. Something could be wrong with the addresses on file.

    Plenty of scope for things to go wrong.

    Relying on mail for this isn't very good.
    Fair comment and even email could default to junk but 1.5 million invites have not all gone astray by some distance and patient resistance must be a considerable factor
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK cases by specimen date

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    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK local R

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  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    It seems the US is going to role out the vacine for 5-11 year olds.

    https://hotair.com/headlines/2021/10/20/white-house-rolls-out-plan-to-vaccinate-kids-ages-5-to-11-against-covid-n423631

    Don't know if its been commented on here before. but FWIW I think parents of kids should decide, and if if a parent feels they whish there kid to have it then they should regardless of age.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    UK local R

    image

    Thanks for sharing all of there,

    Do you mind me asking, haw are they sorted? id does not appear to be ether by alphabetical name, or numeric values.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,638
    edited October 2021
    Don't know if this has been posted yet:
    https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-20th-october-2021/

    Suggests the 'attack rate' amongst 5-14 year olds is about 76%. 76%! It can't be long until infections in that age group collapse.
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    As I said in a previous thread I got both an invite via my GP and via NHS-Noreply. Now I've had an email invite as well despite having made my appointment via my GP survey. How the he'll do they know how many people have responded to which invite??
  • 1.5 million who have been invited for their booster have not turned up

    How many of that 1.5m have received the invitation but have not yet up for the jab... because the appointment is always going to be a week or two after the invite?

    As I said in a previous thread I got both an invite via my GP and via NHS-Noreply. Now I've had an email invite as well despite having made my appointment via my GP survey. How the he'll do they know how many people have responded to which invite??
    Surgery .... and hell. Bloody autocorrect.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,578
    jonny83 said:

    Another issue I'm having with the booster jab (and so are a few other people I've spoken to), the booster jab isn't showing in our vaccine record in the NHS App.

    We were told at the time of the booster jab it would show in the NHS App within a week.

    It's supposed to take 48 hours perhaps 72 Max to update once on the system. At our Hospital Hub we aim to get it on the National database that same day so the app can update as quickly as possible. So it all depends on when it was put on and then how quickly the software communicates with each each other.

    On a separate note I have a sore arm from my booster this morning. But it's a happy ache in my eyes, so relieved to finally get my booster.
    I had my booster more than 3 weeks ago and it doesn't show.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744

    Don't know if this has been posted yet:
    https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-20th-october-2021/

    Suggests the 'attack rate' amongst 5-14 year olds is about 76%. 76%! It can't be long until infections in that age group collapse.

    Every time I happen to pass a child in the street it seems they're sneezing, coughing and blowing their noses. I cross the road.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited October 2021
    BigRich said:

    Newcastle should be relegated if their fans continue to engage in this shocking racism and bigotry.

    Newcastle United have asked supporters to stop wearing tea towels and other home-made headdresses to matches as a way of celebrating the club’s takeover by the Saudi Arabian-funded consortium.

    Hundreds of fans attended St James’ Park for Sunday’s defeat by Tottenham Hotspur dressed in fake Arabic-style clothing in what was the first match since the club were bought for £305 million by the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

    The anti-racism group Kick It Out had planned talks with Newcastle after the decision of many fans to wear tea towels to mimmick the traditional keffiyeh headdress. The club has responded by urging supporters to refrain from dressing in “culturally inappropriate” clothes so not to cause offence.

    “Newcastle United is kindly asking supporters to refrain from wearing traditional Arabic clothing or Middle East-inspired head coverings at matches if they would not ordinarily wear such attire,” the statement read.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/newcastle-united-tell-fans-to-stop-wearing-culturally-inappropriate-head-coverings-as-saudi-tribute-qvgqd95mh

    Do Saudis or other Arabs take offence at seeing people where such things?

    In my limited experience, living in the Midal East for 7 months, some of my fronds took to wearing the big wight garment, that many Arabs where (sorry cant remember the name) mostly because of the heat, and nobody seemed offended.
    Do we get offended when Africans, Asians or Arabs wear business suits? No. But they are doing it to fit in, not to take the piss.

    So I think context matters. In Yemen, I would often get home from the Embassy, take off my suit and dress shirt, and put on a futa (like a sarong) to wear around the house. Just because it was way more comfortable (and way less offensive to Yemenis than shorts).
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.
  • Got to admire the Irish PM, he tells a member of the Dáil to shut the f up.

    https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1450843167020957703
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    BigRich said:

    It seems the US is going to role out the vacine for 5-11 year olds.

    https://hotair.com/headlines/2021/10/20/white-house-rolls-out-plan-to-vaccinate-kids-ages-5-to-11-against-covid-n423631

    Don't know if its been commented on here before. but FWIW I think parents of kids should decide, and if if a parent feels they whish there kid to have it then they should regardless of age.

    Yes, with the proviso that it is tested safe for that age cohort and by 'regardless of age' we mean older than 6 months.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,297

    The biggest news from that conference:

    If not been contacted for a booster within a week of being eligible

    Go online https://nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/book-or-manage-a-booster-dose-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine/ or call 119 and book in.

    Spread it around.


    https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1450863057329131530?s=20

    If you go that link it says you can only make the appointment if you have been sent an invite.

    When my 6 months has expired I will try the link again and see whether it will allow me to make a booking.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,744
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.

    Macron seems a bit short (no pun intended :))
  • Andy_JS said:

    How many times has a governing party lost more than 50 seats at an election?

    Since WWII.

    2010, 1997, 1979, 1970, 1964, 1950, and 1945.

    Edit - Honourable mention to the Lib Dems who lost 49 seats at the 2015 GE.
    Looking at those dates... Have we been looking at it the wrong way?

    The orthodoxy is that the Conservatives are safe until 2028ish, because whoever heard of a governing party losing lots of seats.

    Maybe the issue is that it's hard for a government to change without a lot of seats shifting.

    (And on current polling, not enough seats are shifting... Yet. I wonder what a 1977/8 Politicalbetting, run on postcards maybe, would have said, though?)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,119
    edited October 2021
    Zemmour is a bizarre phenomenon, but also explicable in the age of trump. A deliberate provocateur seeking to break every taboo ; a jewish man seeking to revive the myth of Dreyfus's guilt ; with the aim of reviving the most toxic form of early twentieth-century french nationalism and catholic reaction.

    I pray France has a lucky escape, and it does look as if Macron would easily beat him - one hopes.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Don't know if this has been posted yet:
    https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-20th-october-2021/

    Suggests the 'attack rate' amongst 5-14 year olds is about 76%. 76%! It can't be long until infections in that age group collapse.

    I handed seen that report, but I did post something similar on the last thread. according to ONS servay data, in the week ending 9 October 8.1% of 10-14 Year olds tested positive, and its gone up since them. If 76% have already had it, then less than 3 weeks at this rate till they have all had it it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,088
    BigRich said:

    UK local R

    {Malmesbury's Big Ugly Table Removed}

    Thanks for sharing all of there,

    Do you mind me asking, haw are they sorted? id does not appear to be ether by alphabetical name, or numeric values.
    Sum the numbers on each row, sort highest to lowest. Bit crude... but puts the interesting stuff at the top
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    The coterie of amateur epidemiologists, virologists and immunologists who inhabit this site re-assured me last evening there was nothing to worry about as even after six months the efficacy afforded by two AstraZeneca vaccinations is still going to be adequate.

    As my six months isn't up until the end of next month, I won't worry too much at this stage.

    I am told by Mrs Stodge Japan is doing very well in case of case numbers and deaths - are they further ahead of us in terms of vaccinations or is their mask wearing culture helping to reduce transmission?

    Interesting to read Sajid Javid's comments - there's a strong element of throwing it back to the public in terms of getting booster vaccinations and mask wearing. Anecdotally, I hear of more mask wearing again on public transport so clearly a frisson of anxiety is out there. OTOH, the politics of curtailing Christmas in any way, shape or form probably isn't something Johnson wants to think about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097
    Where's the "What will daily cases peak at" thread we had a while back ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097
    edited October 2021
    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    It seems the US is going to role out the vacine for 5-11 year olds.

    https://hotair.com/headlines/2021/10/20/white-house-rolls-out-plan-to-vaccinate-kids-ages-5-to-11-against-covid-n423631

    Don't know if its been commented on here before. but FWIW I think parents of kids should decide, and if if a parent feels they whish there kid to have it then they should regardless of age.

    Yes, with the proviso that it is tested safe for that age cohort and by 'regardless of age' we mean older than 6 months.
    I wonder if Valneva might be the best vaccine for kids ?
    It doesn't give the nABs that Pfizer or Moderna do but it is inactived virus so the antibodies produced would be across the whole viral spectrum - which is one argument I could think of against the sole spike vaccines being used in younger kids (Might be a good idea for their bodies to see the whole virus at a young age, Valneva solves that).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the "What will daily cases peak at" thread we had a while back ?

    As mich as I bag on Andrew "there's chance of a second wave in London" Lilco he's probably right that we are close to cases saturating kids and as a result case numbers stabalising.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,578
    stodge said:

    The coterie of amateur epidemiologists, virologists and immunologists who inhabit this site re-assured me last evening there was nothing to worry about as even after six months the efficacy afforded by two AstraZeneca vaccinations is still going to be adequate.

    As my six months isn't up until the end of next month, I won't worry too much at this stage.

    I am told by Mrs Stodge Japan is doing very well in case of case numbers and deaths - are they further ahead of us in terms of vaccinations or is their mask wearing culture helping to reduce transmission?

    Interesting to read Sajid Javid's comments - there's a strong element of throwing it back to the public in terms of getting booster vaccinations and mask wearing. Anecdotally, I hear of more mask wearing again on public transport so clearly a frisson of anxiety is out there. OTOH, the politics of curtailing Christmas in any way, shape or form probably isn't something Johnson wants to think about.

    FFS. What sort of psychodrama is it where we have re-runs of "Boris fights to save Christmas" every year. Its even worse than "Love Actually".
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the "What will daily cases peak at" thread we had a while back ?

    For what its worth My money is on 26th October, i.e. next Tuesday.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
    I'd back a QAnon Trumpster to Primary him.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,238

    Interesting exchange at the end of this evening's press conference. Javid and the medics had repeatedly emphasised that government guidance was to continue wearing masks in busy, enclosed spaces - public transport and the like. He was asked why, in the HoC, those on the opposition benches were masked up, but those on the government benches weren't. To my surprise, he didn't shrug it off, but admitted that it was a fair point and that it didn't look good - he didn't quite say it was an example of 'do as I say, not as I do', but not far off.

    Worth watching. It'll be interesting to see if an edict goes out to Tory MPs to mask up in the HoC in future.

    The Commons chamber is a fairly big and airy space. Not sure it counts as an enclosed space.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.

    Macron seems a bit short (no pun intended :))
    In what way?

    I've neither seen a single poll where any other candidate gets near him on the second round nor a poll where he isn't leading the first round.

    He beats Le Pen on every run off poll and I suspect he would beat Zemmour by a larger margin. The only hope for those opposed to Macron is for Bertrand perhaps to get past the warring Zemmour and Le Pen candidacies and snatch second - it's feasible.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,340
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    The coterie of amateur epidemiologists, virologists and immunologists who inhabit this site re-assured me last evening there was nothing to worry about as even after six months the efficacy afforded by two AstraZeneca vaccinations is still going to be adequate.

    As my six months isn't up until the end of next month, I won't worry too much at this stage.

    I am told by Mrs Stodge Japan is doing very well in case of case numbers and deaths - are they further ahead of us in terms of vaccinations or is their mask wearing culture helping to reduce transmission?

    Interesting to read Sajid Javid's comments - there's a strong element of throwing it back to the public in terms of getting booster vaccinations and mask wearing. Anecdotally, I hear of more mask wearing again on public transport so clearly a frisson of anxiety is out there. OTOH, the politics of curtailing Christmas in any way, shape or form probably isn't something Johnson wants to think about.

    FFS. What sort of psychodrama is it where we have re-runs of "Boris fights to save Christmas" every year. Its even worse than "Love Actually".
    Quite so. Am I the only person in the country who finds all this talk of Christmas, starting in September, incredibly boring? It seems rather sad to spend months worrying about, or planning for, the big day, and Boris and the tabloids just fuel this. I don't have a problem with Christmas, but I don't really give it a thought until about 10 days before the big event (apart from ordering cases of wine for the grown-up kids, which takes about 10 minutes).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,510

    Zemmour is a bizarre phenomenon, but also explicable in the age of trump. A deliberate provocateur seeking to break every taboo ; a jewish man seeking to revive the myth of Dreyfus's guilt ; with the aim of reviving the most toxic form of early twentieth-century french nationalism and catholic reaction.

    I pray France has a lucky escape, and it does look as if Macron would easily beat him - one hopes.

    There are a couple of similarities to Trump's run during the primaries in that he has the ability to turn attacks to his advantage, and the media love to talk about him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.

    Macron seems a bit short (no pun intended :))
    In what way?

    I've neither seen a single poll where any other candidate gets near him on the second round nor a poll where he isn't leading the first round.

    He beats Le Pen on every run off poll and I suspect he would beat Zemmour by a larger margin. The only hope for those opposed to Macron is for Bertrand perhaps to get past the warring Zemmour and Le Pen candidacies and snatch second - it's feasible.
    Zemmour is a pretty weak candidate, IMHO.

    Macron is very lucky with his enemies.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the "What will daily cases peak at" thread we had a while back ?

    @Pulpstar https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3485783/#Comment_3485783
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Negative PCR but feeling awful again. This illness is very annoying.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    I suspect that he has leached this, as a way of saying to fellow Dems, don't presser me to much or I might jump.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097

    Interesting exchange at the end of this evening's press conference. Javid and the medics had repeatedly emphasised that government guidance was to continue wearing masks in busy, enclosed spaces - public transport and the like. He was asked why, in the HoC, those on the opposition benches were masked up, but those on the government benches weren't. To my surprise, he didn't shrug it off, but admitted that it was a fair point and that it didn't look good - he didn't quite say it was an example of 'do as I say, not as I do', but not far off.

    Worth watching. It'll be interesting to see if an edict goes out to Tory MPs to mask up in the HoC in future.

    The Commons chamber is a fairly big and airy space. Not sure it counts as an enclosed space.
    With hundreds of MPs it definitely fits the bill.
  • Negative PCR but feeling awful again. This illness is very annoying.

    Good you are negative but maybe rest as much as you can
  • Sajid: "My ambulance is about to crash, but I'm not going to apply Plan B for "brakes"."
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,340

    Interesting exchange at the end of this evening's press conference. Javid and the medics had repeatedly emphasised that government guidance was to continue wearing masks in busy, enclosed spaces - public transport and the like. He was asked why, in the HoC, those on the opposition benches were masked up, but those on the government benches weren't. To my surprise, he didn't shrug it off, but admitted that it was a fair point and that it didn't look good - he didn't quite say it was an example of 'do as I say, not as I do', but not far off.

    Worth watching. It'll be interesting to see if an edict goes out to Tory MPs to mask up in the HoC in future.

    The Commons chamber is a fairly big and airy space. Not sure it counts as an enclosed space.
    Well, it was absolutely heaving the other day for the tributes to David Amess (rightly so), and looked pretty enclosed to me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,040
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.

    As an aside, Ms Le Pen has rather brought this on herself. She has moved so far to the centre that it's pretty easy for her to be outflanked.
  • We are in big trouble.

    It is absolutely absurd masks are not being warn already by people on public transport and in shops. I continue to mask up.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,330
    BigRich said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    I suspect that he has leached this, as a way of saying to fellow Dems, don't presser me to much or I might jump.
    That makes sense. You may well be right.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097
    edited October 2021
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Where's the "What will daily cases peak at" thread we had a while back ?

    @Pulpstar https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3485783/#Comment_3485783
    "200,000 Friday 14th January, 2022."

    I'm claiming a moral victory if restrictions are brought in over winter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    BigRich said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    I suspect that he has leached this, as a way of saying to fellow Dems, don't presser me to much or I might jump.
    That is my read too but I have no special knowledge.

    He's doing incredible damage to the reconcilliation bill, making it a total mess. However from a Dem point if view he is absolutely vital in voting through their judicial appointments
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    We are in big trouble.

    It is absolutely absurd masks are not being warn already by people on public transport and in shops. I continue to mask up.

    Good for you mate
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Sajid: "My ambulance is about to crash, but I'm not going to apply Plan B for "brakes"."

    Nailed it Sunil! :)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited October 2021

    We are in big trouble.

    It is absolutely absurd masks are not being warn already by people on public transport and in shops. I continue to mask up.

    What terrible luck that we have this shower as a Government and this disingenuous clown as PM. Of course and as ever we, the people, are the architects of this clusterf*ck!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,330
    Could the Labour right be plotting to solve the Corbyn issue in lthe party ?

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1450884568744185866?s=21
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sajid: "My ambulance is about to crash, but I'm not going to apply Plan B for "brakes"."

    People may wish to adopt the brace position and put on seatbelts but we will not mandate it.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    If this has been mentioned already, apologies, but a number of polls from France are showing a Zemmour candidacy outpolling Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting.

    This would be extraordinary if it happened - I've not seen any polling on a Macron-Zemmour runoff in round two. It seems to make little difference who the centre-right put up as a candidate - every option is behind Zemmour be it Pecresse, Barnier or Bertrand. The last named does the best at 14% in one poll, two points behind Le Pen and three points behind Zemmour.

    As an aside, Ms Le Pen has rather brought this on herself. She has moved so far to the centre that it's pretty easy for her to be outflanked.
    The fascinating thing is while Le Pen is down a little and Macron is stable at about 25%, the big victims of the rise of Zemmour have been LR and the Socialists. Bertrand is polling at 14% while Fillon got 20% in the first round last time and Pecresse and Barnier are polling at half and 40% of Fillon's numbers respectively.

    Melanchon's numbers have slumped to 8.5% from 19.6% in 2017.

    That "suggests" Zemmour isn't getting his support from Le Pen or perhaps that Le Pen has hoovered up some LR votes but not quite enough to compensate for those lost to Zemmour.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Those figures below are pretty frightening tbh.

    I read earlier this evening that the new variant is concentrated in parts of the S West. And then you see the extraordinarily high R rates in your table all clustered in the M5 corridor from Bristol upwards, far above those in the rest of the country. Clearly that's the focal point of the new variant for now, and those rates mean that it's going to spread out very rapidly to the rest of the country. The new variant is far more virulent than it is being given credit for.

    Government inaction today is absolutely breathtaking. Exhortations dont work. These are pleas to idiots who don't give a damn that their failure to do the right thing is going to plunge everyone back into the abyss. For goodness sake, do something effective to get the vaccination programme going again, fast.

    UK local R

    image

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
    What if he ran for President as an Indie
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,332

    Those figures below are pretty frightening tbh.

    I read earlier this evening that the new variant is concentrated in parts of the S West. And then you see the extraordinarily high R rates in your table all clustered in the M5 corridor from Bristol upwards, far above those in the rest of the country. Clearly that's the focal point of the new variant for now, and those rates mean that it's going to spread out very rapidly to the rest of the country. The new variant is far more virulent than it is being given credit for.

    Government inaction today is absolutely breathtaking. Exhortations dont work. These are pleas to idiots who don't give a damn that their failure to do the right thing is going to plunge everyone back into the abyss. For goodness sake, do something effective to get the vaccination programme going again, fast.

    UK local R

    image

    The rates in the south are not clear, due to the incorrect tests over the last 5 weeks. I think that a lot of people are getting retested and inflating the numbers, as those positives should have been picked up in the previous few weeks. We will see. It’s possible that the new variant is here too, but I think we need more data, and let the testing issue work it’s way through.
  • moonshine said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
    What if he ran for President as an Indie
    He wouldn't win a single state.

    Dems would hate him for being a rat whilst the Trumpites would scold him for being a Dem his entire life.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097

    Those figures below are pretty frightening tbh.

    I read earlier this evening that the new variant is concentrated in parts of the S West. And then you see the extraordinarily high R rates in your table all clustered in the M5 corridor from Bristol upwards, far above those in the rest of the country. Clearly that's the focal point of the new variant for now, and those rates mean that it's going to spread out very rapidly to the rest of the country. The new variant is far more virulent than it is being given credit for.

    Government inaction today is absolutely breathtaking. Exhortations dont work. These are pleas to idiots who don't give a damn that their failure to do the right thing is going to plunge everyone back into the abyss. For goodness sake, do something effective to get the vaccination programme going again, fast.

    UK local R

    image

    The Bristol "AYlright my lover 4.2" variant
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,282

    Those figures below are pretty frightening tbh.

    I read earlier this evening that the new variant is concentrated in parts of the S West. And then you see the extraordinarily high R rates in your table all clustered in the M5 corridor from Bristol upwards, far above those in the rest of the country. Clearly that's the focal point of the new variant for now, and those rates mean that it's going to spread out very rapidly to the rest of the country. The new variant is far more virulent than it is being given credit for.

    Government inaction today is absolutely breathtaking. Exhortations dont work. These are pleas to idiots who don't give a damn that their failure to do the right thing is going to plunge everyone back into the abyss. For goodness sake, do something effective to get the vaccination programme going again, fast.

    UK local R

    image

    The extreme high rates of R are an artefact of re-testing lots of people in a short space of time after lab problems with false negatives.

    It doesn't reflect the true progression of infection.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,709

    Onthread ...

    It had to be bad for Ministers , it wouldn't have been thread had it been the other way round.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    I still can’t fathom why the government didn’t put in place funding and up the numbers for places on nursing and other medical degrees in time for September. The nhs is fucked

    Unless they did of course.
  • Negative PCR but feeling awful again. This illness is very annoying.

    Google (or bing) "super cold". There's a lot of it about, as doctors say.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    Unless he calculates that he cannot get reelected as a Democrat.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437


    Onthread ...

    It had to be bad for Ministers , it wouldn't have been thread had it been the other way round.

    Of course it wouldn’t be a thread without you complaining about it either.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    Unless he calculates that he cannot get reelected as a Democrat.
    Manchin is denying that he's going to leave the Democratic party https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/reconciliation-biden-white-house-takes-shape?entry=1391488
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    moonshine said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
    What if he ran for President as an Indie
    I would love to see him try. or almost anybody other than Biden and trump.

    The normal rule that 3rd party's get nowhere in US politics has proved accurate for a long time, and it may still be accurate but maybe Trump/Biden have broken that?

    If I was to speculate on who could win as a 3rd party candonids I would say Mitt Romeny with Kyrsten Sinema as his VP. but maybe Manchin could?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842


    Onthread ...

    It had to be bad for Ministers , it wouldn't have been thread had it been the other way round.

    I'm still waiting for your pro-Government anti-Labour thread.
  • Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    No he wouldn't, he'd still be the swing vote either way.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,332

    I still can’t fathom why the government didn’t put in place funding and up the numbers for places on nursing and other medical degrees in time for September. The nhs is fucked

    Unless they did of course.

    Medicine training places have increased a lot in recent years. It’s not entirely simple though as a lot of medical and indeed nursing training is on placement, and you need placements. And thus is made harder by Covid. We will have more doctors coming out of the factory in a few years time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,097
    edited October 2021

    Negative PCR but feeling awful again. This illness is very annoying.

    Google (or bing) "super cold". There's a lot of it about, as doctors say.
    One of my colleagues who actually has Covid right now was coming into work blissfully unaware for about 3 days. I'd describe her symptoms as "light cold" at worst. She's eligible for the booster too, so should have mega-immunity to further infection from now on.
    Wasn't too popular, particularly with those who had booked holidays coming up..
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737

    moonshine said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    He'd definitely hold WV in the GOP though. Independent would be just daft for him as a career move.
    What if he ran for President as an Indie
    He wouldn't win a single state.

    Dems would hate him for being a rat whilst the Trumpites would scold him for being a Dem his entire life.
    Brewster
  • Looks like Zahawi got out at the right time (for him, if not for the country).

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/maggie-throup-new-vaccine-minister-1204015

    I did wonder earlier in the thread (or was it the last one?) if it was more than coincidence that everything stared to go wrong when the man who had built up a degree of knowledge and experience of the vaccination drives was moved on too quickly.

    I understand the first vaccination drive had the involvement of military planning as well (am I right on that). Have they been too complacent and not bothered with getting expert planning in place this time?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    rpjs said:

    TimT said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    @Sen_JoeManchin has told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party. And he already has an exit plan.

    https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1450872552914620424

    Wonder which Committee Chair McConnell has offered him ...
    Manchin would go from the most powerful Senator in the Senate to an irrelevance overnight.

    It would be a wild move from him.
    Unless he calculates that he cannot get reelected as a Democrat.
    Manchin is denying that he's going to leave the Democratic party https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/reconciliation-biden-white-house-takes-shape?entry=1391488
    Mandy Rice-Davies had a quote for that.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    An update on Emma Raducanu watch. Bromley Council took 40 minutes on Monday to decide not to make her a freeman (freewoman?) of Bromley Borough, seemingly on the basis that it was proposed by the Labour group and the Tories therefore refused to support it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    VA polling doesn't look good for the Dems, and the under-30 vote is massively under performing in the early vote stats.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830


    Onthread ...

    It had to be bad for Ministers , it wouldn't have been thread had it been the other way round.

    Could you list the last dozen or so good-for-Labour bits of news which have been passed over in silence?

    Thanks
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I regret to inform you all that I am 47 likes short of 6k for my tweet.
This discussion has been closed.