Punters becoming less convinced of another CON majority – politicalbetting.com

Test

The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

Is this Smarkets 38.76%? Betfair are 2.48 which is 40%

If anyone is interested, here are the latest Leader Ratings - GP and Net - from each pollster. Boris leads on GP with everyone, Sir Keir leads with Opinium in Net Satisfaction, Boris leads with the rest

I have saved the September Average, and will update at the end of each month. Should be useful I reckon

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?

Stark_Dawning said:

All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?

Scotland has changed everything.

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

Mucking around with Electoral Calculus, if you leave the SNP in place, you need the shares to be something like C32L46 for a small Labour majority.

Sort of makes sense- the SNP bloc blocks any sort of Labour majority without a Blairesque landslide, by shifting ca.50 potential Labour seats to the opposition. 1997 was C31L43.

Stark_Dawning said:

All lot of us assumed that it would need something spectacular, a Black Wednesday event, to blow Boris's support to smithereens. But what if that's not actually needed? What if Sir Keir can just keep chipping away?

Is (for example) a serious economic crisis in the next couple of years really only a 5% chance ?
I’d put it a bit higher than that.

(Though that might not, of course, mean a Labour majority.)

HYUFD said:

On current polling the likeliest results are either a narrow Conservative majority or a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again

Unionists possibly. DUP, I am not so sure...

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

Foxy said:

I see UKIP have a new leader.

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?t=ZYu_SebG0Ealkry7G9yDoQ&s=19

Remember when accepting cash for questions was considered scandalous? Now a bit of graft is almost compulsory.

Good grief, every time you think they’re hitting rock bottom…

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

JBriskin3 said:

state_go_away said:

The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.

Inflation is a grave concern. THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.

Taz said:

JBriskin3 said:

state_go_away said:

The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

Inflation is scaring the fuck out of me given my UC budget.

For some reason my TV gives me access to CNBC and they showed today Andrew Bailey over the weekend hinting that a rise in interest rates is on the cards - Can't come early enough if you ask me.

Inflation is a grave concern. THe central,banks are convinced it is transitory. We shall see.

That in itself is a good enough reason to be alarmed given their recent track record.

HYUFD said:

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.

Impossible. If Rolf Harris had got more than 2 votes it would have been a hung jury.

Philip_Thompson said:

Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

Labour majority a definite lay.

That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.

O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…

ydoethur said:

O/T but I have just checked my tariff, which is fixed until June unless I leave.

At 16p kWh for electricity and 3p kWh for gas.

Somebody must be cursing the deals they were offering…

Enjoy the prices till June

rcs1000 said:

This is quite a story - https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/10/jonathan-diana-toebbe-spy-trial-espionage.html

What's sure to outrage US public, is assertion that the culprit couple misused a peanut butter sandwich - a true American icon - as cover for their alleged treason.

Not even Benedict Arnold stooped THAT low!

My guess is a reduced Conservative majority, it will take Labour IMO at least two election cycles to overturn this majority and form a government. That's assuming pretty much everything goes right for Labour and the old adage Oppositions don't win elections, Governments lose them stays true.

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

(Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)

Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?

NYT ($) - Colin Powell, whose immune system was weakened, died of Covid-19 after fighting cancer.

Colin Powell, whose immune system was weakened by treatment for multiple myeloma, died of complications of Covid-19 despite being vaccinated, his family said in a statement.

Peggy Cifrino, Mr. Powell’s longtime aide, said that he had been successfully treated for multiple myeloma, a cancer of white blood cells in the bone marrow. People with multiple myeloma have compromised immune systems and are thus at greater risk of developing severe Covid-19. Vaccines are also likely to be less effective in these patients.

The family’s statement did not provide further details about the complications or underlying health conditions Mr. Powell, 84, had. It said he was treated at Walter Reed National Medical Center. Ms. Cifrino said Mr. Powell, had gotten his second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in February, and had been scheduled to get an extra shot last week when he got sick, “so he wasn’t able to get that.”

“We encourage everyone to get vaccinated,” Ms. Cifrino said.

In a study published in July, researchers found that just 45 percent of those with active multiple myeloma “developed an adequate response” after receiving either the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.

Although the shots are critical in reducing severe disease and death from the coronavirus, such outcomes are not unexpected. No vaccine is 100 percent effective, experts say.

Severe Covid is rare in people who have been fully vaccinated.

In June, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that it had received reports of 10,262 breakthrough infections by April 30 — a tiny fraction of the 101 million Americans who had been vaccinated by that date. (The agency noted that the number most likely represented “a substantial undercount” of breakthrough infections.)

Of those breakthrough cases, 2 percent died — and in some of those cases, patients were hospitalized or died from something unrelated to Covid-19. The median age of those who died was 82.

Multiple myeloma wasn’t Mr. Powell’s first battle with cancer. In 2003, when he was secretary of state, he underwent surgery for prostate cancer.

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

Why? I mean the odds don't look completely bonkers (unlike Lab majority), but they aren't attractive either.

state_go_away said:

The Tories are in trouble next election and it really is irrelevant what the current polling is. Inflation will be a big factor and so will be the effects of Brexit

That's not the problem for the Tories.

The problem for the Tories is that everything will be blamed on Brexit. And, because they're so closely associated with it, they get dragged down too.

In truth, Brexit is a mild exacerbating factor to what are global problems emanating from Covid recovery and an incipient move to deglobalise the West from China but because that factor is unique to here and it's regularly reported on with bells and whistles on in the media it gets traction.

If we were still in the EU exactly the same problems would occur but something else would cop the flak - probably the competence of the Government of the day.

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

(Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)

Why would Boris grant an indyref2 that even if he won it could deny him the chance to use posters putting Starmer in Sturgeon's pocket in a hung parliament?

Because he's an egotist and he sees as winning Indyref2 as a way of cementing his legacy.

I know you don't like to hear it, but there's plenty at the top of the government who think indyref2 is honouring democracy.

No he isn't, there are no upsides to Boris for granting an indyref2.

Lose it and he has to resign the next day, win it and he is denied the opportunity to portray Starmer as Sturgeon's puppet if SLab revive, denying him key ammo for the next general election.

So Boris will correctly continue to refuse an indyref2.

A few wet blankets might want an indyref2 but no one senior in the great offices of state in the current government does

MikeSmithson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Midterm polls have government leads and the PM has much, much better approval ratings than his opposite number.

Tory majority certainly seems like good value.

Labour majority a definite lay.

That is wrong. Johnson has worse or at best equal approval ratings with Starmer.

He is leading by an average of 5 Net Satisfaction and 9.4 Gross Positives! Or are we only allowed to use Opinium now? Only Opinium's Net Satisfaction out of Gross Positives and Net Sat from

Opinium
Panelbase
Survation
R&W
IPSOS
Delta
ComRes
YouGov

have Sir Keir in the lead!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

A Labour majority would require "An Event". But what are the chances of "An Event"?

Trouble with trying to devine that is General Elections are rare. To go back 10 GEs takes you to 1982.

Between then and now how mamy "An Event" have happened, and that event has influenced the subsequent election? The Falklands? Black Wednesday? Is that it?

Betting on a Lab Maj seems like a real bad idea.

Indyref2 in the Autumn of 2023, Yes are smashed and the SLAB win circa 40 seats in Scotland in UK GE in May 2024 in the aftermath.

(Well it is the outline of a thread of black swans I've been toying with.)

All it takes from Boris is a letter to stop Indyref2.

Here's a draft that @10DowningStreet could use-

Dear Nippy,

Thank you for your Section 30 request.

Unfortunately for you you stated time and time again during the referendum campaign of 2014 that this was a Once in a generation opportunaty for Scots and 9 years is clearly not a generation.

Therefore your Section 30 request has been rejected.

Best wishes

Boris

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

I'd say about 10-15% actually.

If this Government entirely goes south (there are some nasty straws in the wind) and Starmer stands up tall at the same time as people tire of Sturgeon and separatism in general then it's possible 20 or so seats in Scotland could go SLab to eject the Westminster government.

Sure, he'd need to get 100 or so seats in E&W too but Cameron basically did that in the aftermath of the Credit Crunch himself.

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.

I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

Hey now you're getting it!

National Insurance is a tax.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

Why? I mean the odds don't look completely bonkers (unlike Lab majority), but they aren't attractive either.

I actually diverge from your thinking here.

I don't think the Conservative coalition is half as solid as you think it is. It's a mile wide and an inch deep.

The main thing holding it up is the lack of a better alternative.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

Hey now you're getting it!

National Insurance is a tax.

Less so than income tax but if the Tories increase income tax or inheritance tax or impose a wealth tax or continue to increase NI then I agree, what is the point of voting to re elect a Tory government? We may as well just have Labour in government and revive the Tory Party in opposition on a traditional Conservative agenda

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.

Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.

I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.

Paragraph 1 and 2. Yes you did.

Paragraph 3 I don't believe that to be true.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.

I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.

Hi Philip, do you have figures for that? My distinct impression is that where some have paid off debts due to no holidays, commutes, meals out etc those on low pay who had a cut in income have gone further into debt. But I would be really happy if I was wrong.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

Raising taxes is already happening.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

Raising taxes is already happening.

Not as much as they would under Labour at the moment, however if they increase taxes further some Tories will start to wonder whether it is worth continuing in government under Boris and Sunak to continue an agenda identical to what Starmer would do. Or better to go into opposition under a red meat Tory like Patel or Rees-Mogg or a libertarian like Truss

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.

I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.

But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

Raising taxes is already happening.

I think Sunak's heart is in the right place but he risks choking off recovery by squeezing tax to balance the budget too early - I'd ease us off the fiscal heroin of the last eighteen months with another 2-3 years of methadone myself.

Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.

I remember Ken Clarke saying when he was appointed Chancellor he knew he would have to do something that was against his philosophy of forty years, which was to put up taxes. The reality was if he didn't it would get worse further down the line, he thinks the IMF intervention as well as the Winter of Discontent is what kept Labour out for eighteen years.

Philip_Thompson said:

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

Mexicanpete said:

rcs1000 said:

A 15% chance of a Labour majority?

That's insane. Unless the SNP were to implode, then an outright majority is going to be extremely difficult for the Labour Party, even if they were to close in on the Conservative vote share.

I'd reckon it's 4-5% (tops) probability.

You unfortunately missed out a couple of decimal points.

Not unconvinced that a hung Parliament is a possibility assuming the economy goes the way I think it might.

There are lots of possibilities. Reform or the LibDems could win a majority in 2024. BJO could become Labour leader, and take them to their best result in a Century.

My view is that the Conservatives should be clearly odds on to win a majority next time around. Why? Simples: (a) they have a decent sized majority to lose, (b) large parts of the UK are still grateful to Boris for delivering Brexit and vaccines, and (c) the Conservatives continue to poll very well in actual elections.

Could all those things dissipate to the level where the Conservatives fail to secure a majority in 2024? Of course, and that's probably a 30-35% chance. But the chance of Labour winning an outright majority... at this point I'd want 25-1 to even think about it.

My decimal.point comment was to imply that 0.4 or 0.5% would be highly optimistic.

But I can see enough mileage in a hung parliament and I think a 45% chance is about right. This is dependent on rising inflation and rising interest rates, which @Philip_Thompson tells me is not going to happen, or if it does it will be good inflation and good interest rate rises, but I am not so sure.

I never said inflation is not going to happen. I hope it does.

I said an expansion of monetary supply alone doesn't automatically guarantee inflation [which it doesn't] because our high debt levels have added serious deflationary pressures to the economy.

Ironically lockdown has helped people pay off debts, which means the deflationary pressures on the economy have been eased a bit so making inflation more likely. That's a good thing though, unless you want everyone spending their income on debt instead of purchases.

Hi Philip, do you have figures for that? My distinct impression is that where some have paid off debts due to no holidays, commutes, meals out etc those on low pay who had a cut in income have gone further into debt. But I would be really happy if I was wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/mar/29/britons-pay-back-most-on-debt-in-27-years-as-credit-card-spending-slumps-covid

Total consumer credit fell by 10% in the year March 2020 - February 2021

Credit card debts fell by over 20% in the same period

Stunning drop in 12 months on consumer debts.

Thanks.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.

I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.

But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps

I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

If the Tories want to be re elected just to put up taxes we may as well just have a Labour government anyway and make Starmer PM

People like Max and myself tell you that Sunak is a pound shop Gordon Brown and that Boris Johnson is a tax and spender.

Raising taxes is already happening.

I think Sunak's heart is in the right place but he risks choking off recovery by squeezing tax to balance the budget too early - I'd ease us off the fiscal heroin of the last eighteen months with another 2-3 years of methadone myself.

Then go into 2024 saying it's almost sorted and say Labour would ruin it.

I remember Ken Clarke saying when he was appointed Chancellor he knew he would have to do something that was against his philosophy of forty years, which was to put up taxes. The reality was if he didn't it would get worse further down the line, he thinks the IMF intervention as well as the Winter of Discontent is what kept Labour out for eighteen years.

I understand that but I think Covid was a unique situation.

It's not a black and white answer in its aftermath and it requires a similar flexibility in thinking.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Neil Hamilton elected UKIP leader

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1450133924924084231?s=20

He got 27 votes beating out Rolf Harris, who only got 11.

I've fantasised at times about joining just so I can get "political party leader" on my CV.

But then you may become a politically exposed person and that's a real pain in the arse.

https://www.lawsociety.org.uk/en/topics/anti-money-laundering/peps

I decided long ago that a political career wasn't for me - I don't have a thick enough skin and, quite frankly, although I find it interesting I suspect it'd make me miserable.

Yeah, I realised pretty quick politics wasn't for me.

My sense of humour would perpetually get me into trouble, I don't think my parents could cope with seeing me constantly criticised, and I'll be honest, the pay differentials were pretty stark.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.

Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .

What worries me (much to my surprise) is how the numbers have shifted on that in the last two months, including eating into that coalition.

It might not stay solid forever or, if it does, shrink down from 45-50% to an irreducible core of true believers at sub 30% at which point it becomes a handicap not an asset.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2021/2021-q2/household-debt-and-covid


Stunning chart from the Bank of England. Look at those savings rates.

This recession is like one we've never ever had before. We never normally come out of a recession with lower household debts than we went into it with.

Given high debts are part of the reason we've been struggling with deflation, a paying off of debts during lockdown could be another reason for inflation on top of all the others already named.

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Some of this is me.

I've dumped a Big One on NOM.

There's a world of economic hurt coming and the Tories should take a hit for that.

One theory I've heard spouted, May 2023 GE which allows the Tories to put up taxes in late 2023 and not have to face the electorate for nearly five years.

That won't look like such a good idea by 2022.

Maybe, I suspect the earlier he goes to the country he can keep the Brexit coalition together as he will say voting Labour risks ruining/overturning Brexit .

It's quite a subtle problem.

He can't go now without looking shifty. Can he?

The next couple of years are going to be the Shawshank redemption bit, but with more tunneling through you-know-what and no certainty about redemption. That starts with the NI increase in Spring 2022. If Labour can't build up a meaningful lead then, they really are in trouble.

And then, all of a sudden, it's 2024. And yes, the longer he leaves it, the more that "Brexit is in peril" could be met by "whatevs" or even "good". Or even "What do you mean, you've tied us into arrangements that stop us even thinking about EFTA. You mad psychos, what did you do that for?"

As one pollster put it, the country was overwhelmingly in favour of invading Iraq and the ERM, when the shit hit the fan, it was like, nah, I was always opposed to those.