politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014
Comments
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All my emails from playdiplomacy were going straight into my spam folder, so has been fixed now.HurstLlama said:
I am sorry you missed your build too! Completely screwed up my plans.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know, sorry about that, I made some moves this evening, and finalised them as well.Pulpstar said:
I do hope you're going to submit some moves in the diplomacy game !TheScreamingEagles said:ICM really wasn't an outlier.
The true position is something like Labour ahead 2-3%.
Allowing for margin of error, normal sampling variations, slightly different methodologies, and the long term trend of the Labour lead falling, we're going to see some weird polling.
Thus a Tory lead of 3% with one pollster, and a Lab lead of 7% with another pollster, is them showing the same thing.
You missed your build by the way.
Oh, also the name of the game is Diplomacy. It is called that for a reason. The clue is in the name, FFS!0 -
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11998.32481.0.0/world/military/germany-is-building-a-european-army-before-your-eyes
The Netherlands hands over part of it's army to Germany. Maybe Holland wants to give up it's individuality forever and so follow the Dutch Nazi plan when under German occupation in WW2.0 -
I hope you've got a good supply of hard hat's and flak jacket's for the IndyRef aftermath.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
There may be trouble ahead...0 -
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled0 -
Very scary.Y0kel said:
Anytime they want. Its pretty much all in place. There are deep and wide areas of the border that the Ukrainians have left open as theyve turned inward.MikeK said:
Well Putin was in the Crimea yesterday, or was it today, and said the Crimea was being re-militarised. So it could be a large pincer movement on Russia's part.Y0kel said:In reply to Mike K....
It is unclear if the Russian formations are moving in though everyone, NATO included, have been aware that they have been prepping to go in with the cover of this humanitarian mission.
The difficulty is that Russian military gear, including armour, has been moving across the border for weeks in separatist hands, just not official Russian formations.
The only thing lacking is the timing. When?
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If I got two prepared pieces.GIN1138 said:
I hope you've got a good supply of hard hat's and flak jacket's for the IndyRef aftermath.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
There may be trouble ahead...
If Yes wins, the piece trolls Labour, saying The Tories were right, devolution killed Scottish nationalism stone dead, thanks for making a Tory majority easier and time to stop sending Scottish MPs to Westminster.
If No wins, I will be urging Unionists to be magnanimous towards the Nats.0 -
Well, its been going on since the end of WW2 and I think there are a few years left yet. Not many, mind, not with what is happening in the rest of the world. At some stage in the not too distant future all politicians from all major parties are going to have to face up to the fact that the nation is skint.kle4 said:
Some harsh truths there. I do wonder when acknowledging some of those harsh truths will finally come. Obviously our politicians cannot face up to the systemic issues we as a nation face, as they would not get reelected for doing so, so just how long is the road we are kicking the can down? It's amazing how much you can string something along.
How is your neck and back by the way? Herself still has the wax doll and each time I buy another of the Accursed King series she sticks another needle in. Up to number 4 at the moment.0 -
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
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Imtiaz Ameen selected by Tories in Batley & Spen:
mobile.twitter.com/imtiazameen
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As a child, I remember this by-election taking place with an General Election imminent.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Edge_Hill_by-election,_19790 -
You can still get 8/15 with Paddy Power!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
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#manwithaplanTheScreamingEagles said:
If I got two prepared pieces.GIN1138 said:
I hope you've got a good supply of hard hat's and flak jacket's for the IndyRef aftermath.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
There may be trouble ahead...
If Yes wins, the piece trolls Labour, saying The Tories were right, devolution killed Scottish nationalism stone dead, thanks for making a Tory majority easier and time to stop sending Scottish MPs to Westminster.
If No wins, I will be urging Unionists to be magnanimous towards the Nats.
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My joke about the LDs poor poll rating clearly fell flat on its face... tittersTheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled0 -
With his seat as close to very safe as any LD could hope for in current times, I guess in part a higher profile might be hoped to salvage Swinson's otherwise almost certain defeat, notwithstanding any other justifications for promotion that might apply.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
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IMO the latest date that a by-election is likely to be held in this parliament is Thursday 18th December. So the writ would have to be moved by the middle of November.0
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BBC World Service news today said that the celebrity kiddie fiddling probe has now reached Cliff Richard and Billy Graham. Really?0
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Ooh. Now I get it.RobD said:
My joke about the LDs poor poll rating clearly fell flat on its face... tittersTheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
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Barring events, the afternoon thread tomorrow features you!GIN1138 said:
#manwithaplanTheScreamingEagles said:
If I got two prepared pieces.GIN1138 said:
I hope you've got a good supply of hard hat's and flak jacket's for the IndyRef aftermath.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
There may be trouble ahead...
If Yes wins, the piece trolls Labour, saying The Tories were right, devolution killed Scottish nationalism stone dead, thanks for making a Tory majority easier and time to stop sending Scottish MPs to Westminster.
If No wins, I will be urging Unionists to be magnanimous towards the Nats.
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Yes, Cliff has been at the top of the BBC News website for most of the day:Tim_B said:BBC World Service news today said that the celebrity kiddie fiddling probe has now reached Cliff Richard and Billy Graham. Really?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/0 -
*gets coat*TheScreamingEagles said:
Ooh. Now I get it.RobD said:
My joke about the LDs poor poll rating clearly fell flat on its face... tittersTheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
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http://www.liveleak.com/browse?q=ukraine
For months now both sides in Ukraine have been putting up little trophy video clips whenever they have a victory at a checkpoint showing off the kit they captured or destroyed. Some of it is very gruesome but the useful part is it shows quite clearly what equipment each side has.
(caveat long range artillery as that's not likely to be at a checkpoint)
In a nutshell the US state dept is blatantly lying about the kit the rebels have and anyone can see for themselves by checking the videos the Ukraine side has been putting up for months.
(caveat long range artillery again - they could have passed some of that over)
That's as of yesterday anyway - things may be changing now with this convoy on the move.
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Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader0 -
Don't forget, with great power.. something something.TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader0 -
Seems legit.TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader
On the Cameron resigning issue, if he does not, it could be darkly amusing trying to see his spinners project him as a strong leader going into 2015, or switch gears to the sometimes seen but not at present official position of 'Actually, Scotland leaving is a good thing for the Tories'.
No, he should resign in the event of a Yes, and the Tories should let Clegg take over until the election, rather than tear strips off each other in a leadership contest as there is no clear favorite as Dave's successor. At the least that scenario would also be pretty amusing.
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What are the odds on Clegg being PM in the next few years?kle4 said:
Seems legit.TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader
On the Cameron resigning issue, if he does not, it could be darkly amusing trying to see his spinners project him as a strong leader going into 2015, or switch gears to the sometimes seen but not at present official position of 'Actually, Scotland leaving is a good thing for the Tories'.
No, he should resign in the event of a Yes, and the Tories should let Clegg take over until the election, rather than tear strips off each other in a leadership contest as there is no clear favorite as Dave's successor. At the least that scenario would also be pretty amusing.
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LAMBETH Knight's Hill
Sonia Winifred (Labour Party Candidate) 1,265 (63.7%)
Heidi Nicholson (Conservative Party Candidate) 248 (12.5%)
Christopher Hocknell (The Green Party) 230 (11.6%)
Robin Lambert (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 99 (5.0%)
Robert Hardware (Liberal Democrat) 94 (4.7%)
Nelly Amos 51 (2.6%)0 -
I wonder if Tony Blair is still holidaying at Cliff's Barbados villa this summer? *innocent face*GIN1138 said:Has Sally Bercow given her two-pennith Re.Sir Cliff, BTW?
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Really? I am honoured!TheScreamingEagles said:
Barring events, the afternoon thread tomorrow features you!GIN1138 said:
#manwithaplanTheScreamingEagles said:
If I got two prepared pieces.GIN1138 said:
I hope you've got a good supply of hard hat's and flak jacket's for the IndyRef aftermath.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
There may be trouble ahead...
If Yes wins, the piece trolls Labour, saying The Tories were right, devolution killed Scottish nationalism stone dead, thanks for making a Tory majority easier and time to stop sending Scottish MPs to Westminster.
If No wins, I will be urging Unionists to be magnanimous towards the Nats.
Is it relaying JackW's call for all wibbly-wobbly #PBTories to man up and get a grip?
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Better than I would have thought, in that it is deemed more likely than 1000-1. I guess him stepping in or being called to the post in a 'hit by a bus' scenario slash the odds.RobD said:
What are the odds on Clegg being PM in the next few years?kle4 said:
Seems legit.TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader
On the Cameron resigning issue, if he does not, it could be darkly amusing trying to see his spinners project him as a strong leader going into 2015, or switch gears to the sometimes seen but not at present official position of 'Actually, Scotland leaving is a good thing for the Tories'.
No, he should resign in the event of a Yes, and the Tories should let Clegg take over until the election, rather than tear strips off each other in a leadership contest as there is no clear favorite as Dave's successor. At the least that scenario would also be pretty amusing.
Unsurprising local result, oh well.
Night all.0 -
Tone and Cherie loved a freebie didn't they?MarqueeMark said:
I wonder if Tony Blair is still holidaying at Cliff's Barbados villa this summer? *innocent face*GIN1138 said:Has Sally Bercow given her two-pennith Re.Sir Cliff, BTW?
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thatcher Savile ChequersMarqueeMark said:
I wonder if Tony Blair is still holidaying at Cliff's Barbados villa this summer? *innocent face*GIN1138 said:Has Sally Bercow given her two-pennith Re.Sir Cliff, BTW?
Blair Cliff Barbados
Clegg smith Westminster
Farage allowances Brussels?0 -
A treat in store for golf fans in the US - Rory and Tiger are appearing together on the Tonight Show on Monday.0
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YouGov?
Must be an outlier!
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Iraq: Who is in.
Subject to Obama not wimping out the following countries are signed on for some kind of action against ISIS.
USA, France, UK, Australia, Jordan.
The last one is a potential hub point and has struck before against ISIS when they've been close to the border that they share with Syria.
The US military has been fairly honest in its assessment of the limitation of airstrikes, due to a mix of developing intelligence (they haven't got enough yet) and limited assets (pretty much everything has come from the Navy carrier in the Gulf).
The staff planning is pretty much complete. Question is will the President give the nod.0 -
Depends on Splitters like TSE voting for him next MayRobD said:
What are the odds on Clegg being PM in the next few years?kle4 said:
Seems legit.TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader
On the Cameron resigning issue, if he does not, it could be darkly amusing trying to see his spinners project him as a strong leader going into 2015, or switch gears to the sometimes seen but not at present official position of 'Actually, Scotland leaving is a good thing for the Tories'.
No, he should resign in the event of a Yes, and the Tories should let Clegg take over until the election, rather than tear strips off each other in a leadership contest as there is no clear favorite as Dave's successor. At the least that scenario would also be pretty amusing. 0 -
If No wins, Dave might have to resign having lost his plurality!TheScreamingEagles said:Just had a thought.
If Yes wins, Dave might have to resign.
I could influence the Tory leadership election with my choice of threads and polling analysis.
Expect a load of threads urging the Tories to choose Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid.
This will have nothing to do with me holding betting slips at 33/1 that Hunt or Javid to be next Tory leader0 -
WinNeil said:
You can still get 8/15 with Paddy Power!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Alistair Carmichael is set to quit after the referendum and be replaced by Jo SwinsonRobD said:
The Lib who?TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike's next big holiday is straight after the Indyref vote.MarqueeMark said:I look forward to a YouGov outlier of a Tory 4% lead the night OGH goes on his hols....
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled
Single: No @ 8/15
1 line at £37.67 per line
Total stake for this bet: £37.67
Potential returns: £57.76
Paddy has decided to lay me £20 liability on this one.
Hope you are right ^_~
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Topping FPT: Still in China till tomorrow, but it's been very interesting as usual. Yes, took the trains, though not the sleeper - very very comfortable in first class (can't imagine what business class is like), and got lots of work done on them more easily then crouched in hotel rooms.
Stayed sufficiently long this time to have quite a few private conversations. All anecdotal but the general view seems to be that people are reasonably optimistic, think the new government is serious about tackling corruption (the arrest of various bigwigs is taken seriously), and to some extent think a bit is being done about pollution (current stats show the big polluting industries doing less well and carbon outputs slightly down. The big caveat, backed up by a poll published in China Daily, is that not many people think that the Government is going to tackle the huge income differences effectively. They can live with this while everyone is getting better off, but it's registered as a serious problem.
The main complaint is that "politicians don't listen" and that ordinary people don't have a chance to get their views across. I said that was something one hears elsewhere too...0 -
Lib Dems finishing below UKIP in LAMBETHAndyJS said:LAMBETH Knight's Hill
Sonia Winifred (Labour Party Candidate) 1,265 (63.7%)
Heidi Nicholson (Conservative Party Candidate) 248 (12.5%)
Christopher Hocknell (The Green Party) 230 (11.6%)
Robin Lambert (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 99 (5.0%)
Robert Hardware (Liberal Democrat) 94 (4.7%)
Nelly Amos 51 (2.6%)
Well well...0 -
Deathmatch looks interesting, feel you will have to work with Germany shortly to try and stop Andy Cooke though.NickPalmer said:Topping FPT: Still in China till tomorrow, but it's been very interesting as usual. Yes, took the trains, though not the sleeper - very very comfortable in first class (can't imagine what business class is like), and got lots of work done on them more easily then crouched in hotel rooms.
Stayed sufficiently long this time to have quite a few private conversations. All anecdotal but the general view seems to be that people are reasonably optimistic, think the new government is serious about tackling corruption (the arrest of various bigwigs is taken seriously), and to some extent think a bit is being done about pollution (current stats show the big polluting industries doing less well and carbon outputs slightly down. The big caveat, backed up by a poll published in China Daily, is that not many people think that the Government is going to tackle the huge income differences effectively. They can live with this while everyone is getting better off, but it's registered as a serious problem.
The main complaint is that "politicians don't listen" and that ordinary people don't have a chance to get their views across. I said that was something one hears elsewhere too...0 -
aintcha got anything on ed?isam said:
thatcher Savile ChequersMarqueeMark said:
I wonder if Tony Blair is still holidaying at Cliff's Barbados villa this summer? *innocent face*GIN1138 said:Has Sally Bercow given her two-pennith Re.Sir Cliff, BTW?
Blair Cliff Barbados
Clegg smith Westminster
Farage allowances Brussels?0 -
The Deathmatch has been excellent, without a hint of stalemate right through to 1915 and still plenty of play in it. Germany's unconventional opening attacking south with England had a lot to do with it (as did my two NMRs at critical moments - missed my 1902 builds).Pulpstar said:
Deathmatch looks interesting, feel you will have to work with Germany shortly to try and stop Andy Cooke though.
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Selection news:
Conservative, Birmingham Selly Oak: Alex Avern.
mobile.twitter.com/alex_avern0 -
When you throw in first term incumbency, Coalition Government, a PM who is more popular than the Leader of the Opposition and 'its the economy stupid' into the mix. Its getting harder to see how Labour under Ed Miliband are going to even achieve the easier goal of coming out of the GE as the largest party, never mind as Government with a majority of 1. Just looking at the current UK GDP growth and the ever declining unemployment figures, where is the impetus and motivation to turn out and vote Labour to kick the current lot out of power going to come from so soon after the last very nasty recession we suffered under a Labour Government? The public still seems to regard the last Labour Government's economic incompetence as the main culprit in that UK recession
I still maintain that a poorer Libdem performance at the next GE is going to benefit the Tories far more than it will the Labour party in the seats where it matters most, just as in the past twenty odd years a stronger Libdem performance in former Tory seats helped Labour secure comfortable majorities. At the end of the day, Labour have already squeezed the Libdems to the core in the current polls, but they haven't yet managed to shift their own former supporters out of that UKIP column and back into the Labour camp due to issues like immigration and the EU. And despite some of the die hard former Tory to UKIP switchers on this site being relaxed about Labour getting back into power for 'one' term to further their own aims of influencing the future of the Conservative party on Europe etc. I becoming more convinced that the political and economic situation will persuade and motivate quite a few Conservative to UKIP switchers to head back into the Tory column on GE day.
We are going to see the return of the shy Tory voter at the next GE on the back of four key points, the economy, a strong Indy Ref vote for No, women voters and Ed Milibands negative Leadership polling. As some commentators have noted following the recent female only Scottish Independence poll, women tend to avoid gambling on their families financial future far more than men. And while this site may now be awash with passionate anti Tory SNP/Yes, Lab and anti Cameron/UKIP men, you are all going to end up being a little short of numbers when it comes to women voting for Salmond, Miliband, Clegg and Farage at the next GE. It won't be those Libdem to Lab switchers that automatically gifts Miliband the keys to No10, it will be women voters that keep him and the Labour party out of Government.Scott_P said:
@MSmithsonPB: Electoral calculus has LAB 3 short of majority on tonight's CON 35, LAB 35 shares. See. http://t.co/stxGRZbuB4SquareRoot said:EIC EMWMBPM> I thank you and goodnight.
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I've just finished the She-Wolf. Isabella is not someone you want to piss off.HurstLlama said:
Well, its been going on since the end of WW2 and I think there are a few years left yet. Not many, mind, not with what is happening in the rest of the world. At some stage in the not too distant future all politicians from all major parties are going to have to face up to the fact that the nation is skint.kle4 said:
Some harsh truths there. I do wonder when acknowledging some of those harsh truths will finally come. Obviously our politicians cannot face up to the systemic issues we as a nation face, as they would not get reelected for doing so, so just how long is the road we are kicking the can down? It's amazing how much you can string something along.
How is your neck and back by the way? Herself still has the wax doll and each time I buy another of the Accursed King series she sticks another needle in. Up to number 4 at the moment.
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The defence rests when it comes to retaining current Conservative Government at the next GE M'Lud.NickPalmer said:
Topping FPT: Still in China till tomorrow, but it's been very interesting as usual. Yes, took the trains, though not the sleeper - very very comfortable in first class (can't imagine what business class is like), and got lots of work done on them more easily then crouched in hotel rooms.
Stayed sufficiently long this time to have quite a few private conversations. All anecdotal but the general view seems to be that people are reasonably optimistic, think the new government is serious about tackling corruption (the arrest of various bigwigs is taken seriously), and to some extent think a bit is being done about pollution (current stats show the big polluting industries doing less well and carbon outputs slightly down. The big caveat, backed up by a poll published in China Daily, is that not many people think that the Government is going to tackle the huge income differences effectively. They can live with this while everyone is getting better off, but it's registered as a serious problem.
The main complaint is that "politicians don't listen" and that ordinary people don't have a chance to get their views across. I said that was something one hears elsewhere too...0 -
YouGov: 35/35/8/12/5
Technically it is a crossover. Using the raw data published: CONS: 35.47; LAB: 35.030 -
The Bank of England has challenged the Scottish government’s characterisation of official contacts between them, in an embarrassing setback for nationalist ministers before next month’s independence referendum.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed70fae8-23d7-11e4-86fc-00144feabdc0.html
Edinburgh has been keen to play up Scottish government meetings with central bank staff. John Swinney, Scotland’s finance secretary, said on Wednesday officials had “technical discussions . . . regarding our proposal for a currency union”.
However, the central bank on Thursday directly contested Mr Swinney’s remarks, saying: “To be clear . . . the Bank of England has not entered into discussions with representatives of the Scottish government about proposals for future monetary arrangements in Scotland.”
From a comment in The Telegraph@dropstone
That BoE statement of yesterday in full:
....
In the event that the central belt braveheart bampots vote YESH, we, the BoE will be quite happy to accommodate the savings of the sane Scots, in our banks , south of the border outwith the newly created country of bampotland.
We like money , here in Evil Sassenach land. We welcome it.
The Bampots call us rUK.
We prefer to call it Continuity UK.
We call iScotland Runt Scotland.
This is what we mean when we are making contingency plans when currency flight occurs.0 -
Sadly, I don't see Paddy Power paying up on this basis.Financier said:YouGov: 35/35/8/12/5
Technically it is a crossover. Using the raw data published: CONS: 35.47; LAB: 35.030 -
Considering the Bank of England stated clearly that they were having technical discussions with the Scottish government long ago, since Mervyn King times, it is hardly new news.Morris_Dancer said:Isn't that a schoolboy error from the SNP?
Currency was already an Achilles' heel for them. As Napoleon said, never reinforce failure.
Edited extra bit: just over a week until F1 resumes in Spa. Nyoooooooom!
My mid-season review, with a graph comparing how hedging and not-hedging compare, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-2014-mid-season-review.html
They make themselves look pretty stupid by announcing they are not having "technical discussions" but are only answering "technical questions".
Do they ever see how stupid they look when lying through their teeth.0 -
You are so thick that you actually think what you post is funny, keep collecting your JSA you will need it.Scott_P said:
I thought it was funnier when I posted it 4 days ago...TheScreamingEagles said:Mike is going to rue the day for tweeting this
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3m
Brilliant from @RiffRaff41 . Ask Alex Salmond to solve relationship problems!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvBRvQ4IQAACjvq.jpg
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/357190/#Comment_3571900 -
Your failure to build was great for England which was awful for me !NickPalmer said:
The Deathmatch has been excellent, without a hint of stalemate right through to 1915 and still plenty of play in it. Germany's unconventional opening attacking south with England had a lot to do with it (as did my two NMRs at critical moments - missed my 1902 builds).Pulpstar said:
Deathmatch looks interesting, feel you will have to work with Germany shortly to try and stop Andy Cooke though.
Often the person who NMRs isn't actually the one that suffers in dip :P0 -
0.03 away.peter_from_putney said:
Sadly, I don't see Paddy Power paying up on this basis.Financier said:YouGov: 35/35/8/12/5
Technically it is a crossover. Using the raw data published: CONS: 35.47; LAB: 35.030 -
Good question Malc.malcolmg said:
Do they ever see how stupid they look when lying through their teeth.“To be clear . . . the Bank of England has not entered into discussions with representatives of the Scottish government about proposals for future monetary arrangements in Scotland.”
Swinney and Salmond look like buffoons.
Again.0 -
Morning all.
Allister Heath: - Why Francois Hollande’s France has become the eurozone’s weak link.
goodish article on the woes that beset the Eurozone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11035598/Why-Francois-Hollandes-France-has-become-the-eurozones-weak-link.html
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ed70fae8-23d7-11e4-86fc-00144feabdc0.htmlScott_P said:The Bank of England has challenged the Scottish government’s characterisation of official contacts between them, in an embarrassing setback for nationalist ministers before next month’s independence referendum.
Edinburgh has been keen to play up Scottish government meetings with central bank staff. John Swinney, Scotland’s finance secretary, said on Wednesday officials had “technical discussions . . . regarding our proposal for a currency union”.
However, the central bank on Thursday directly contested Mr Swinney’s remarks, saying: “To be clear . . . the Bank of England has not entered into discussions with representatives of the Scottish government about proposals for future monetary arrangements in Scotland.”
From a comment in The Telegraph@dropstone
You would like a quote that came from someone with an IQ of a two year old, matches you perfectly.
That BoE statement of yesterday in full:
....
In the event that the central belt braveheart bampots vote YESH, we, the BoE will be quite happy to accommodate the savings of the sane Scots, in our banks , south of the border outwith the newly created country of bampotland.
We like money , here in Evil Sassenach land. We welcome it.
The Bampots call us rUK.
We prefer to call it Continuity UK.
We call iScotland Runt Scotland.
This is what we mean when we are making contingency plans when currency flight occurs.0 -
Swinney and Salmond look like buffoons.Scott_P said:
Good question Malc.malcolmg said:
Do they ever see how stupid they look when lying through their teeth.“To be clear . . . the Bank of England has not entered into discussions with representatives of the Scottish government about proposals for future monetary arrangements in Scotland.”
Again.
Yes, answering "Technical Questions" is a lot different from "Technical Discussions", what planet are you on. Why do you hate Scotland so much.0 -
SimonStClare
The problems that beset the Eurozone are the same as ours - just bigger, uglier and more urgent. The issue is that we have voted ourselves welfare states that we can't afford. And now that the money has run out all welfare states are facing an existential crisis - where do we go from here? 'Pay as you go' welfare states are a ponzi scheme unless the population and economy grow forever.
I think Ozzy's direction of travel is broadly right but too slow. We need to eliminate the deficit entirely and aim for a surplus.
But what is the value proposition of the left wing parties here? What does Labour bring to the problem in a world where there is no money nor any prospect of anything other than a journey towards balanced books? A fairer distribution of the pain I suppose. But deep down we all know they'll simply reject the screamingly obvious challenge and start borrowing again - right up until the markets won't let them. A VERY dangerous time ahead for all developed nations, us included.0 -
Its a funny old world when all of:malcolmg said:
Do they ever see how stupid they look when lying through their teeth.Morris_Dancer said:Isn't that a schoolboy error from the SNP?
Currency was already an Achilles' heel for them. As Napoleon said, never reinforce failure.
Edited extra bit: just over a week until F1 resumes in Spa. Nyoooooooom!
My mid-season review, with a graph comparing how hedging and not-hedging compare, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-2014-mid-season-review.html
- David Cameron
- George Osborne
- Ed Milliband
- Ed Balls
- Nick Clegg
- Danny Alexander and
- The a Bank of England
Are all lying and not only that are all telling the same lie.
And ONLY Alex Salmond is telling the truth.
For a bunch of allegedly incompetent ninnies they are showing spectacular consistency......funny, that, isn't it?
0 -
And that has NONE of the characteristics of a cult. No, Sir.CarlottaVance said:
Are all lying and not only that are all telling the same lie.
And ONLY Alex Salmond is telling the truth.
Have faith in the One True Prophet and all will be well...0 -
Malcolm G
If you are by any way an example of how Scottish people behave, I fear for the Scots.
0 -
If so much of the British state is attractive to Mr Salmond, one wonders why he has dedicated his political career to removing Scotland from it.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/28e76bcc-239f-11e4-be13-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ARSmtEc90 -
He isn't. As the polls consistently and comprehensively demonstrate, separatists are a minority.SquareRoot said:Malcolm G
If you are by any way an example of how Scottish people behave, I fear for the Scots.
0 -
Surely the issue on currency is not who said what but what is politically do-able. Salmond says 'we will share a currency' - which translates as 'English taxpayers will take the exposure of Scottish bank failure'.
The reason all the main parties gave an instant 'no way buddy' to this is that it is not politically acceptable. The lessons of the Euro nightmare are pretty clear on the requirement for political union and a fiscal transfer union being necessary preconditions for a currency union to be viable.
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.0 -
A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-287444900 -
@PatrickPatrick said:SimonStClare
The problems that beset the Eurozone are the same as ours - just bigger, uglier and more urgent. The issue is that we have voted ourselves welfare states that we can't afford. And now that the money has run out all welfare states are facing an existential crisis - where do we go from here? 'Pay as you go' welfare states are a ponzi scheme unless the population and economy grow forever.
I think Ozzy's direction of travel is broadly right but too slow. We need to eliminate the deficit entirely and aim for a surplus.
But what is the value proposition of the left wing parties here? What does Labour bring to the problem in a world where there is no money nor any prospect of anything other than a journey towards balanced books? A fairer distribution of the pain I suppose. But deep down we all know they'll simply reject the screamingly obvious challenge and start borrowing again - right up until the markets won't let them. A VERY dangerous time ahead for all developed nations, us included.
Totally agree. The deficit would have been cut faster and deeper (like the Irish) but was slowed due to the LD part of the coalition.
Western Europe (and especially the EU bureaucrats) have failed to realise that its costs and prices are (and have been for decades) too high to compete with a rapidly-growing, technologically- excellent, Asian economy.
Also technology and globalisation has removed for ever millions of starter/low skilled jobs. Combine that with a lower standard of education which makes many people unemployable, it means that we all are on a travelator to the knacker's yard (except for the aspiring, flexible-minded and well educated few, who will find a good job where the action is).
This problem has not even reached most politicians' thinking and certainly not of Labour, who can only think of where to increase taxes. Penalising even more the wealth creators and employers will drive them away to where it is worth their while to be creative.
0 -
A daft idea. Portugal tried and went back again. Lived in Moscow when they abolished winter changes, those dark mornings were hellish. British clocks are in line with our position on the earth, move our islands east and then we could change.CarlottaVance said:A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-287444900 -
Malcolm G is always right about everything, SR. He will succeed the Salmond as leader of the SNP and go on to reconquer Cumbria and Northumbria for his homeland. Then OGH will have to recalculate the size of the notional Tory majority last time.SquareRoot said:Malcolm G
If you are by any way an example of how Scottish people behave, I fear for the Scots.0 -
Eck's message appears to be: ' We hate the UK and its institutions and we want to leave and become independent. But we absolutely want to keep the queen, the currency, the central bank, the regulators, the embassies, open borders, the post office, the DVLA, etc ad nauseam. But we keep the oil and you keep the debt.'Scott_P said:
Not simple enough for our separatist friends.Patrick said:
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.
They really are buying into Eck's bullshit that the vote would be consequence free.
A bit like a messianic cult in fact...
Can any sharp PBers spot the teeniest tiniest flaw in this argument?0 -
I imagine it plays well in the Clydeside tenements, particularly after the pubs have opened.Patrick said:
Eck's message appears to be: ' We hate the UK and its institutions and we want to leave and become independent. But we absolutely want to keep the queen, the currency, the central bank, the regulators, the embassies, open borders, the post office, the DVLA, etc ad nauseam. But we keep the oil and you keep the debt.'Scott_P said:
Not simple enough for our separatist friends.Patrick said:
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.
They really are buying into Eck's bullshit that the vote would be consequence free.
A bit like a messianic cult in fact...
Can any sharp PBers spot the teeniest tiniest flaw in this argument?
0 -
Disagree. It would move the latest sunrise in Carlisle to 9.36 in the morningFalseFlag said:
A daft idea. Portugal tried and went back again. Lived in Moscow when they abolished winter changes, those dark mornings were hellish. British clocks are in line with our position on the earth, move our islands east and then we could change.CarlottaVance said:A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28744490
But! But! But! The kiddies would go to school in the dark! Yes, but they'd come home (when they are more likely to muck around) in daylight as you shift sunset to16.45.
SINDY can do what it likes.....0 -
Daylight in the morning is far more important than in the evening, it's not just farmers who go to work early in the morning, our body clocks go by when the sun rises. Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both cases but lazy media political class types will keep pushing for their longer lie ins.CarlottaVance said:
Disagree. It would move the latest sunrise in Carlisle to 9.36 in the morningFalseFlag said:
A daft idea. Portugal tried and went back again. Lived in Moscow when they abolished winter changes, those dark mornings were hellish. British clocks are in line with our position on the earth, move our islands east and then we could change.CarlottaVance said:A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28744490
But! But! But! The kiddies would go to school in the dark! Yes, but they'd come home (when they are more likely to muck around) in daylight as you shift sunset to16.45.
SINDY can do what it likes.....0 -
Actually the Scottish Government proposes replacing the DVLA with a Scottish motoring agency.Patrick said:
Eck's message appears to be: ' We hate the UK and its institutions and we want to leave and become independent. But we absolutely want to keep the queen, the currency, the central bank, the regulators, the embassies, open borders, the post office, the DVLA, etc ad nauseam. But we keep the oil and you keep the debt.'Scott_P said:
Not simple enough for our separatist friends.Patrick said:
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.
They really are buying into Eck's bullshit that the vote would be consequence free.
A bit like a messianic cult in fact...
Can any sharp PBers spot the teeniest tiniest flaw in this argument?
0 -
Er, that it is at odds with what Salmond has actually said?Patrick said:
Eck's message appears to be: ' We hate the UK and its institutions and we want to leave and become independent. But we absolutely want to keep the queen, the currency, the central bank, the regulators, the embassies, open borders, the post office, the DVLA, etc ad nauseam. But we keep the oil and you keep the debt.'Scott_P said:
Not simple enough for our separatist friends.Patrick said:
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.
They really are buying into Eck's bullshit that the vote would be consequence free.
A bit like a messianic cult in fact...
Can any sharp PBers spot the teeniest tiniest flaw in this argument?0 -
Evidence?FalseFlag said:
Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both casesCarlottaVance said:
Disagree. It would move the latest sunrise in Carlisle to 9.36 in the morningFalseFlag said:
A daft idea. Portugal tried and went back again. Lived in Moscow when they abolished winter changes, those dark mornings were hellish. British clocks are in line with our position on the earth, move our islands east and then we could change.CarlottaVance said:A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28744490
But! But! But! The kiddies would go to school in the dark! Yes, but they'd come home (when they are more likely to muck around) in daylight as you shift sunset to16.45.
SINDY can do what it likes.....
From the BBC article:
Converts to the cause have been lobbying for a change for over 40 years, and believe it would bring about a host of improvements to everyday life - reducing the number of road accidents, saving the NHS money, boosting tourism, facilitating trade and travel with Europe, and giving the City more overlap with Asian markets.
There was a trial of permanent GMT+1 (although not "double summertime") from 1968 to 1971. But it ended with the government pronouncing its advantages and disadvantages impossible to quantify.
Of course there us another country in the "wrong" time zone - that backward failure, Singapore...0 -
Citation needed. Hard to see how this works in cities and at different times of year. Are you seriously suggesting that we should sleep much longer in the winter?FalseFlag said:
Daylight in the morning is far more important than in the evening, it's not just farmers who go to work early in the morning, our body clocks go by when the sun rises. Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both cases but lazy media political class types will keep pushing for their longer lie ins.
Personally I rather like getting up in the dark, makes me feel I'm ahead of things and no pressure to get moving. But like most city-dwellers, I suspect, I don't really care.
0 -
Interesting new site...
Predicts lab most seats in hung parliament and Ukip on 0 seats, with the caveat that models don't really work for Ukip
Anyway, can only add to the fun
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk0 -
So they should get on with it and quit dicking about on shared services.Neil said:
Actually the Scottish Government proposes replacing the DVLA with a Scottish motoring agency.Patrick said:
Eck's message appears to be: ' We hate the UK and its institutions and we want to leave and become independent. But we absolutely want to keep the queen, the currency, the central bank, the regulators, the embassies, open borders, the post office, the DVLA, etc ad nauseam. But we keep the oil and you keep the debt.'Scott_P said:
Not simple enough for our separatist friends.Patrick said:
The pound is the UK's currency. You leave the UK you leave the pound. It really is that simple.
They really are buying into Eck's bullshit that the vote would be consequence free.
A bit like a messianic cult in fact...
Can any sharp PBers spot the teeniest tiniest flaw in this argument?0 -
My main gripe is that we have to endure the dark nights for so long. By Valenties Day, we have equivalent daylight hours to the day the clocks go back. By the end of February, sunrise is earlier, and sunset is later, the day when the clocks go back. This applies throughout the UK, but we still have to wait until the end of March before putting the clocks forward again.CarlottaVance said:
Disagree. It would move the latest sunrise in Carlisle to 9.36 in the morningFalseFlag said:
A daft idea. Portugal tried and went back again. Lived in Moscow when they abolished winter changes, those dark mornings were hellish. British clocks are in line with our position on the earth, move our islands east and then we could change.CarlottaVance said:A major objection to repeated calls to bring the UK's clocks into line with Europe has been the darker mornings it would mean for northern Scotland. Would a "yes" vote for independence shift the debate?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-28744490
But! But! But! The kiddies would go to school in the dark! Yes, but they'd come home (when they are more likely to muck around) in daylight as you shift sunset to16.45.
SINDY can do what it likes.....
0 -
Really will be waiting for the results from Balsover and Lambeth with baited breath. The fightback starts here!
Or maybe next week.0 -
Just my own, and everyone I knew's, experience in Moscow during the winter. Surprisingly negative effect it had on quality of life to no discernible benefit.NickPalmer said:
Citation needed. Hard to see how this works in cities and at different times of year. Are you seriously suggesting that we should sleep much longer in the winter?FalseFlag said:
Daylight in the morning is far more important than in the evening, it's not just farmers who go to work early in the morning, our body clocks go by when the sun rises. Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both cases but lazy media political class types will keep pushing for their longer lie ins.
Personally I rather like getting up in the dark, makes me feel I'm ahead of things and no pressure to get moving. But like most city-dwellers, I suspect, I don't really care.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333760/Portugal-warns-Britain-We-switched-Berlin-Time-catastrophe.html0 -
I can see your point of view, , everyone would be under the yoke 24 hrs 7 days a week, so matters such as daylight saving are irrelevant.NickPalmer said:
Citation needed. Hard to see how this works in cities and at different times of year. Are you seriously suggesting that we should sleep much longer in the winter?FalseFlag said:
Daylight in the morning is far more important than in the evening, it's not just farmers who go to work early in the morning, our body clocks go by when the sun rises. Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both cases but lazy media political class types will keep pushing for their longer lie ins.
Personally I rather like getting up in the dark, makes me feel I'm ahead of things and no pressure to get moving. But like most city-dwellers, I suspect, I don't really care.0 -
Support (net) for moving to CET:
England: +22 (North: +19)
Scotland: -17
http://cdn.yougov.com/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-Clocks-230211.pdf
0 -
Another VICTORY FOR ECK!
100 billion pound land: Expert claims currency union would be a disaster and spell deep depression for Scottish economy
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/expert-claims-currency-union-would-40518210 -
New Thread0
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Oh, ffs. Not this again!NickPalmer said:
Citation needed. Hard to see how this works in cities and at different times of year. Are you seriously suggesting that we should sleep much longer in the winter?FalseFlag said:
Daylight in the morning is far more important than in the evening, it's not just farmers who go to work early in the morning, our body clocks go by when the sun rises. Been tried twice and deemed a disaster in both cases but lazy media political class types will keep pushing for their longer lie ins.
Personally I rather like getting up in the dark, makes me feel I'm ahead of things and no pressure to get moving. But like most city-dwellers, I suspect, I don't really care.
If you want to get up earlier then by all means do so - I personally brought my own morning alarm forwards a few years ago much to my own benefit. But why eff around with everyone else's clocks?
Noon - as in midday - should be the time when on average the sun is at its highest in the sky. If you're going to mess around with that you may as well get rid of the whole concept of timezones and local time entirely and just put the whole world on UTC, with local working-hours chosen to suit local sunrise and sunset.0 -
Boo Hoo I am upset now,SquareRoot said:Malcolm G
If you are by any way an example of how Scottish people behave, I fear for the Scots.0
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