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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014
South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Independents 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 647, 597
Conservative 248, 228
British National Party 176
Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cannon (Lab), Robert Sainsbury (Con)
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Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3m
Brilliant from @RiffRaff41 . Ask Alex Salmond to solve relationship problems!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvBRvQ4IQAACjvq.jpg
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
Knight’s Hill on Lambeth (Lab Defence)
"Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 59, Conservatives 3, Green 1 (Labour majority of 63)”
I make it a Labour majority of 55.
To be fair, I don’t expect the situation to be any different tomorrow morning!
"In an extraordinary move, the Bank issued a statement making clear that claims by John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Minister, that it had entered “technical discussions” over a currency union were inaccurate. "
Wow.
Currency was already an Achilles' heel for them. As Napoleon said, never reinforce failure.
Edited extra bit: just over a week until F1 resumes in Spa. Nyoooooooom!
My mid-season review, with a graph comparing how hedging and not-hedging compare, is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/the-2014-mid-season-review.html
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/357190/#Comment_357190
Wasn't expecting that one.
It is followed by: "Next week: Nigel Farage explains how leaving the EU is the only cure for vaginal dryness."
That is a 12 month low - see link below (today's move is not yet on the graph).
I know the £ has fallen about 3 cents in the last few days but even so could we be about to see some further falls in petrol prices - pushing well below the current average of approx 127.9p to 129.9p?
If it could fall below 125p that might be quite a positive psychological boost to the feelgood factor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28798033
Anyway, hopefully this will improve the situation a little and allow political wrangling to shortly end.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories neck-and-neck: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
I was hoping for a quiet time.
if only the police had showed such alacrity about the robbery of a house at 45 The Avenue, Cheam in 1955.
What the chuffing hell is your point? It is quite obvious that the police have been going after all kinds of decades-old impropriety. Why the surprise at this one?
NOT!
(Sorry - feels better to get that off my chest slightly.)
As you were
Oh wait .......
I would say the bolder and more radical the vision of the incoming manager, the more likely they are to go down.
Last 14 weeks - oldest first:
1.8 = Euros
2.0 = Euros
4.0
5.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
2.4 = Random blip?
4.4
4.4
3.0 = Real move lower?
3.2 = Fall sustained
4.2
2.25 = This week (one poll to come)
So where's the trend?
After the definite dip for the Euros, the lead was steady at between 4 and 5 for several weeks. The 2.4 looked like a random blip.
The 3.0 three weeks ago probably now looks like a real move lower which was sustained the week after with the 3.2. The 4.2 last week maybe now looks random on the upside with this week reinforcing the downward move three weeks ago.
This poll (as well as last night's) probably too late for inclusion in Stephen Fisher's GE seats projection tomorrow, i.e UKPR's moving poll average.
It should be a PB golden rule.
On Saturday night, I'm expecting at least three Westminster VI polls and maybe as many as three Indyref polls.
Crossover in both?
Are you listening, Scotlandshire?
All good pollsters, shall produce at least one outlier in every 20 of their polls.
On the other hand by doing this so publically and openly they've probably destroyed Sir Cliff's career today. If it was to turn out that he's completely innocent that's tough thing to have happen...
So he was done.
The Labour MP for one of the Leicester seats died in December 2009, and Gordon Brown decided not to hold a by-election, and the voters were without an MP until the general election.
ICM is still the gold standard though, because that title relates to it's past record in being the UK's best pollster at general elections.
@AmbroseEP: I may have between unfair to Hollande yesterday, saying he was past saving. France is stirring. EMU revolt?
http://t.co/BMAapQ4Z9h
The true position is something like Labour ahead 2-3%.
Allowing for margin of error, normal sampling variations, slightly different methodologies, and the long term trend of the Labour lead falling, we're going to see some weird polling.
Thus a Tory lead of 3% with one pollster, and a Lab lead of 7% with another pollster, is them showing the same thing.
The Telegraph @Telegraph 3m
Russian armoured vehicles and military trucks cross the border from Russia into Ukraine http://fw.to/izNVVlP
I think it was overtaken in 2011 by a few other wards.
Don't know about councils.
A very successful entertainer, whose work is loved by many has seen his career destroyed today, and his reputation as a national mascot tarnished. He may be guilty, he may be innocent. But the way the police acted this publicly is unforgiveable.
It is unclear if the Russian formations are moving in though everyone, NATO included, have been aware that they have been prepping to go in with the cover of this humanitarian mission.
The difficulty is that Russian military gear, including armour, has been moving across the border for weeks in separatist hands, just not official Russian formations.
In Ireland the last Government was taken to court over a delay of more than a year in holding a by-election. The High Court said that such a delay offended the constitution.
If pressed, I'd probably go for Chris Hughton on offer at 25/1 with BetVictor.
DYOR
Test
Add the fact that the Ukrainians have left some rather seriously deep pockets of the border pretty much unguarded as they have swung west and inward in an attempt to cut of separatist lines of communications and supply and it all adds up to a not so straightforward situation.
Everyone, NATO included, is fully aware however that Russians are prepping to go in with the cover of this humanitarian supply mission.
You missed your build by the way.
"You only have to talk to French people to understand why that country is going down the tube fast. The bureaucracy is stifling you cannot even set up a small business without half a dozen permits and then you have to pay tax in advance. There public sector is so huge you cannot believe it. And the people just don't understand the concept of issues like reducing the cost of benefits and pensions. Businesses are shutting at a fast rate and no business is growing or taking on staff.
No one is prepared to take or impose the pain that we went through in the 1980's and in the last 5 years."
"The party has gone on too long within western countries. The truth is, very few people are prepared to accept the harsh reality and that is, a significant reduction in our standard of living coupled with unstable working patterns.
Governments have simply promised their citizens far too much and the truth is, they cannot keep their promises.
The choice ahead is either, austerity or borrowing more, neither are palatable; however austerity unfortunately is the more sensible and realistic option.
Austerity will be very painful now, and will plunge us into a depression, however eventually it will pass, maybe 20 to 30 years.
Borrowing more, which seems to be the preferred option for western Governments, including the UK, will end up as a complete train wreck. Don't think the UK are applying austerity for one moment, they are simply trying to slow down the rate of debt increase, but this will be hard as the interest payments that have to be serviced becomes a higher percentage of the debt.
In short, we should have had honest politicians telling us as it is, instead of career politicians that are in it for the short term and just simply kick the can down the road. Ideally, we should be critical thinkers that are not hood winked by our politicians, but hey most of us would be happy to watch so called reality programmes on TV, and worship poor celebrity role models."
The only thing lacking is the timing. When?
Not even sure about the economic cycle but you make a valid point.
But the real issue surely is language.
The problem with the creation of the Euro was that the criteria for being part of it were fudged and badly fudged.
Oh, also the name of the game is Diplomacy. It is called that for a reason. The clue is in the name, FFS!
My stint then covers aftermath of the Indyref, the Lab, Con and LD conferences, and a Lib Dem reshuffled