Could Bojo be tempted to cash in on current polling by going early? – politicalbetting.com

System said:

Could Bojo be tempted to cash in on current polling by going early? – politicalbetting.com

Undoubtedly the Conservatives are doing very well at the stage to be maintaining the poll lead over Labour and the question must arise as to whether the prime minister will decide to go for it early before things like the tax rises due for next spring come into effect?

Read the full story here

JohnO said:

Stark_Dawning said:

What happened to FTPA? Has it been repealed yet?

Repeal legislation currently going through Parliament.

Stark_Dawning said:

JohnO said:

Stark_Dawning said:

What happened to FTPA? Has it been repealed yet?

Repeal legislation currently going through Parliament.

Shame. It was the best constitutional innovation we've had in many decades.

londonpubman said:

Not sure the electorate would particularly appreciate a GE in 2022 when there is no obvious need for it.

I think it will be 2023 probably Q2 which is when elections normally are, but even that represents only a 3.5 year gap.

Richard_Tyndall said:

On topic, I think Johnson would have to be certifiable to go for an election now. He doesn't need it, he has a massive majority and the only way would be down.

I think the voters would rightly punish him if he tried it... so I hope he does

TheScreamingEagles said:

The moment you've all been waiting for, my review of No Time To Die.

A bit too long and tried way too much to be the perfect denouement to Daniel Craig's James Bond.

Skyfall would have done a better job as the perfect ending if you ask me but NTTD was a solid movie but it was no Skyfall nor SPECTRE.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The moment you've all been waiting for, my review of No Time To Die.

A bit too long and tried way too much to be the perfect denouement to Daniel Craig's James Bond.

Skyfall would have done a better job as the perfect ending if you ask me but NTTD was a solid movie but it was no Skyfall nor SPECTRE.

This review makes me even more excited to watch it!

There's one plot thing that I enjoyed a lot, simply because the usual suspects will go it's political correctness gone mad.

Richard_Tyndall said:

My thanks to HYUFD who compared me on the previous tread to Grover Norquist. I have to admit I had not heard of the gentleman before and have only skimmed his Wiki entry so may find later there are things about him I really dislike.

But it is interesting to find someone in US politics who advocates the things I do like - both a radically smaller state but also much increased immigration. I am more used to the two being rather mutually exclusive in most people's politics.

I have not yet worked out if he is part of the religious right nutter tendency which would rather put a dampener on my positive opinion of him but I live in hope given that he is a strong advocate for minority religious and ethnic groups.

I will probably end up being disillusioned with him but thanks anyway for pointing him out.

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I still like the theory that Boris Johnson will go for a spring 2023 election to avoid the messy contretemps that will be caused by sitting Tory MPs fighting over the new seats because of the boundary changes.

I was just looking at the proposals for Wales. They’re not dreadful for the Tories although they could be better. Labour sees I think 6 seats go in the valleys, but would almost certainly regain Aberconwy and possible Delyn.

It’s awful for Plaid Cymru though. If my rough figures are right they would start with one notional hold, although they would certainly be in contention in Ceredigion Preseli and should at least be second in Caerfyrddin.

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

I wonder whether it's worth betting against gas for summer 2022 delivery, I've been thinking about it for a while because inevitably Qatari, US and other big gas sources will be in mega oversupply by then and the Northern hemisphere summer will result in hugely reduced demand, especially when considering how much additional renewable energy capacity is going to be installed in the next 10 months across Europe and the US.

Just a thought.

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

kinabalu said:

I don't think Johnson will call an election before 2024. Just can't see why he would.

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I still like the theory that Boris Johnson will go for a spring 2023 election to avoid the messy contretemps that will be caused by sitting Tory MPs fighting over the new seats because of the boundary changes.

I was just looking at the proposals for Wales. They’re not dreadful for the Tories although they could be better. Labour sees I think 6 seats go in the valleys, but would almost certainly regain Aberconwy and possible Delyn.

It’s awful for Plaid Cymru though. If my rough figures are right they would start with one notional hold, although they would certainly be in contention in Ceredigion Preseli and should at least be second in Caerfyrddin.

6 seats in the Valleys gone?
How do you reckon that?

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Omnium said:

Re header and @MikeSmithson. Endless header posts will not assuage your conscience. The Tories are currently the best placed to be in government. The other parties are simply hopeless, and that's especially the LDs.

Beyond the Tory party the next best placed person to be PM in my opinion is Farage. Fertile ground for the Greens, but WTF are the usual parties of opposition doing!?

I would just comment that there is agreement that we face an extraordinary cost of living crisis with worldwide energy prices rocketing, shortages across the planet with container ships held at anchor in many places, indeed 14 were held at anchor of Anglesey last week due to adverse weather conditions for docking in Liverpool

HMG is facing the bleakest outlook I can remember, not least as covid continues and the economic shocks are extreme.

Taxes are rising and it is fair enough to complain about the loss of the £20 UC uplift but that would add £6billion or 1% on income tax year year on year and Starmer has still not said how he would cover the deficit other than muttering 'tory donors'.

I would be very surprised to see the conservatives retain their poll lead but does anyone know how labour would fund their 170 billion of spending and address the present energy and shortages issues

HMG is having to make extraordinarily unpopular decisions, but in truth governments across Europe and elsewhere are facing the same tsunami of a crisis

We must also remember that on top of this, COP26 is going to involve very expensive commitments (Insulate Britain said they want a trillion to insulate UK homes) and sooner or later the costs are going to collide with policy makers and why has nobody had the courage to say we have to transition to carbon neutral in a manner that does not create massive poverty and societal disruption and if that includes in the UK case giving the go ahead to the Shetland oil fields then so be it

True, but just about all of the wounds you list are self-inflicted. Energy shortages, but shale gas just left in the ground. Public finances in crisis, but lots of hugely wasteful spending. House prices too high, but absurd planning laws. COP26 commitments because of green crap.

It's the consequence of the soft socialism and politically correct pandering we've subjected the economy to over the last 20 years.

(I could have added lockdown, which was designed to inflict maximum economic damage).

Shale gas has been left in the ground (globally), because we had a pandemic and prices crashed.

Remember that the production profile of a shale gas well is very different to that of a traditional oil or gas project. With shale, if you stop drilling, production drops very rapidly.

What we've seen is that demand fell during the pandemic, drilling stopped, and shale gas production dropped sharply. Rig counts are now rising (although they still need to increase further), and production will rapidly follow.

There are still essentially no spot exports of LNG from the US, but that will change in the next few months. By April/May next year, US natural gas production should have increased more than 10 billion cubic feet a day, and be hitting new highs. (For reference, UK natural gas demand is only 7 billion feet/day)

I wonder whether it's worth betting against gas for summer 2022 delivery, I've been thinking about it for a while because inevitably Qatari, US and other big gas sources will be in mega oversupply by then and the Northern hemisphere summer will result in hugely reduced demand, especially when considering how much additional renewable energy capacity is going to be installed in the next 10 months across Europe and the US.

Just a thought.

There are two or three big LNG projects coming on stream, and US spot deliveries will recommence.

So, it sounds reasonable. Although I don't know where June futures are right now.

It is worth noting that one of the problems the UK has had is that the domestic natural gas plants all get very used to buying spot. For a long time, excess (or spot) LNG cargos sold for 30-40% less than long-term contract prices. Which meant that people who bought long-term were making much smaller margins than those who bought spot.

When the pandemic receded, we found ourselves without lots of contracted LNG, having to fight in the market for a very small number of spot cargoes. It was an entirely self inflicted wound.

Alongside increasing the amount of gas storage in the UK, it would not be unreasonable to require those gas plants that wish to receive capacity payments from the grid, to have precontracted for a certain portion of their gas needs.

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

Malmesbury said:

turbotubbs said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

kjh said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

Farooq said:

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

No thread on James Brokenshire, RIP?

I can’t see that by election being the betting event of the year, can you?

Going to the Wikipedia page for Old Bexley & Sidcup, I was staggered to discover that Ted Heath remained in parliament until the 2001 General Election. That's close to two decades after leaving power.

Anyway... I can't see past a Conservative hold: solidly leave, Cons 35 points ahead of Labour, LibDems nowhere.

Yes, exactly the same thing struck me.
I don't think there's much to be learned about national politics from this by election, especially given the reasons for the vacancy. Perhaps the relative performance between Labour and Lib Dems might be of interest? Can the Lib Dems hold onto that increase of voters?

I would expect turnout to be well down - perhaps 30,000 votes in total. Of this, the Cons will get 15,000, Labour 9,000 and the LDs 5,000. A comfortable Conservative hold on a low turnout.

The LDs will make a big thing about being the only major party to increase their absolute numer of votes. But no-one will care.

I very strongly doubt the Lib Dems will increase their vote total. In fact, it's as close to a certainty as there can be.

"As close to a certainty as there can be"

So, you'll offer me - what - 50-1?

If you get any takers at 50 - 1 can I share it with you

Come on, you said "as close to a certainty as there can be", so you have to be pretty sure. What are you offering?

@rcs1000 you are replying to the wrong person. I want to be on your side of the bet at 50 - 1.

Oh I missed this earlier, my apologies.
No thanks. I certainly would take the bet on even at long odds, but I prefer to strike bets with an organisation where I know I have legal rights to get at my winnings. Making bets with random internet people doesn't strike me as prudent.

Ummm.

I am reasonably well known on this board. And my real world identity is hardly a secret.

Are you SeanT?

I thought we were all Spartacus SeanT?

I am SeanT!

Malmesbury said:

MaxPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting question:

Here's a question:

Scotland is smashing it out the park in terms of vaccinating 12-15 year olds. And check out the rate of jabs in 16-17 year olds compared to England.

But how come vaccine coverage is higher in all ages over 50 in Scotland even with comparable ONS denominators?

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1446510730723926016?s=20

Ignoring the obvious (and unlikely) "the denominator is wrong" could it be greater proportion of ethnic minority (and more vaccine resistant) population in England?

On the children there's a clearly different approach - Scotland "walk in" vs England "via schools only" - but older ages reasons not as immediately obvious...

@Mexicanpete is this one of my "anti-devolution posts"?

Yes, significantly lower proportion of minority people, specially Black and Pakistani/Bangladeshi where uptake is about 60-70% vs White and Indian where uptake is between 90-100%.

There was a article on the BBC website breaking down take-up by ethnicity - there were some really quite worrying numbers for some minorities.

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I still like the theory that Boris Johnson will go for a spring 2023 election to avoid the messy contretemps that will be caused by sitting Tory MPs fighting over the new seats because of the boundary changes.

I was just looking at the proposals for Wales. They’re not dreadful for the Tories although they could be better. Labour sees I think 6 seats go in the valleys, but would almost certainly regain Aberconwy and possible Delyn.

It’s awful for Plaid Cymru though. If my rough figures are right they would start with one notional hold, although they would certainly be in contention in Ceredigion Preseli and should at least be second in Caerfyrddin.

6 seats in the Valleys gone?
How do you reckon that?

I’ve only reckoned it roughly and I might be wrong, but I see Caerphilly, Gower, Neath, Ogmore, Cynon Valley as abolished, in effect, and Llanelli and Newport East on those boundaries might start as notional Tory holds.

Equally, it’s partly balanced by a new seat in Swansea. Also I think Bridgend and Delyn would be back in play, and Aberconwy should certainly start as a notional Labour hold with Bangor being assigned to it.

I want to do some more detailed work on them burrowing into wards, but that’s my instinctive reaction.

Equally it was always going to be like that given the majority of seat reductions are happening are where Labour are strong. One in the west and two in the north were never going to be as painful for Labour as the reductions in the numerous smallish seats in the south east.

Plaid must have absolutely crapped themselves though. There’s very little redeeming feature here for the certain loss of Arfon.

tlg86 said:

I see Croydon had a referendum yesterday:

https://www.croydon.gov.uk/council-and-elections/voting-and-elections/governance-referendum-7-october-2021#

tlg86 said:

I see Croydon had a referendum yesterday:

https://www.croydon.gov.uk/council-and-elections/voting-and-elections/governance-referendum-7-october-2021#

HYUFD said:

No and he would be an idiot to do so given every current poll shows the Tories losing seats compared to 2019.

Half the current polls even have the Tories losing their majority and a hung parliament. He will wait until 2023/4.

As May and Trudeau showed in 2017 and this September unnecessary elections called early rarely get the big majorities aimed for, both scraped back into power rather than romping home

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

No and he would be an idiot to do so given every current poll shows the Tories losing seats compared to 2019.

Half the current polls even have the Tories losing their majority and a hung parliament. He will wait until 2023/4.

As May and Trudeau showed in 2017 and this September unnecessary elections called early rarely get the big majorities aimed for, both scraped back into power rather than romping home

But HY, the prospects going forward look bleak, horrendous infact.

A December 2021 election gives Johnson a circa 40/50 seat majority until May 2026 by which time he could happily jump ship to the US after dinner circuit.

The added bonus of a defeated Starmer would leave the Labour Party in turmoil.

It's a win, win, win for Johnson. Not so much for the rest of us.

MrEd said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

The ex-Finnish PM seems to think the EU needs to organise a charity appeal for us.

https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1446347168290324481

If the EU would play its cards right, it would offer assistance to the UK now or later when the supply of basic goods and services takes a turn for the worse. This is what friends do, even if the pain has been self-inflicted, stupid an unnecessary.

Sorry, but the situation in the UK is going to go from bad to worse with no respit in sight. This is not a period of adaptation, it is a rather permanent reality and fact linked to voluntary isolation and myths of sovereignty in an interdependent world.

That entire thread is hilariously insane. People from across the EU - and a couple of Americans - who honestly believe Britain is close to collapse. And famine.

Are they all reading the New York Times, and nothing else?!

It’s genuinely hard to fathom. One element must be Strasbourg Syndrome. Brexit is evil therefore it can only cause evil things to the evildoers responsible. It is a religious reflex at work

Yes, it sort of goes back to what I was talking about earlier today. The EU projects this image of perfection which causes people idealise it. We see it on here all the time. They have an almost religious zeal about the EU because in the back of their minds they know the EU is imperfect, the image it projects is false and they are overcompensating because they realise the moment they admit it isn't perfect those flaws and those minor imperfections add up, the doubt grows and suddenly the institution they place above all others a mess of undemocratic contradictions and the UK was right to leave.

Lots of people really believe the EU is the only game in town, their world is being shattered right now as the UK prospers completely outside of its structures. This is their worst nightmare come true.

Similar phenomenon when it comes to Trump quite frankly. Pure evil, determined to bring the world to war, The Omen reincarnated etc. etc.

The EU and Biden have quite a few things in common.

Malmesbury said:

Age related data

Stocky said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT:

Is anyone watching the new “28 Up”?
It is not at all as good as the original, although it’s interesting to think why.

One reason, I think, is that Britain really is less class-bound than it was 30 years ago. Most of this crop of kids (who were 7 in 2000) have settled into a kind of generic lower middle class-ness, regardless of race or even disability. And the two rich kids have done fuck-all with some very expensive educations.

The kids appear to be duller, too. Maybe growing up in the 60s and 70s was more character-building.

No. Thanks for this. I'm a big fan of 7 Up but knew nothing about this new series. I'll go back to the first one from 2000.

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

Trafford have reintroduced a requirement for parents to wear facemasks when dropping kids off and picking them up, and for kids in senior schools.
How fucking depressing.
I'm not scared of this virus. But I am scared of how our public sector reacts to it.

Something must be done
This is something
Therefore we must do this