politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected

System · August 2014

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% one now.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

First! I have achieved Crossover!

Pulpstar · August 2014

UKIP will be up from 9% in the ICM - that's my most confident prediction...

MarkSenior · August 2014

Ashcroft comedy random number generator poll comes next or is that now cancelled for the remainder of summer .

MarkHopkins · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:
First! I have achieved Crossover!

Yes, but will you sustain it on the next thread?

Lennon · August 2014

MarkSenior said:
Ashcroft comedy random number generator poll comes next or is that now cancelled for the remainder of summer .

Believe that the next one is September for Ashcroft.

MikeSmithson · August 2014

MarkSenior said:
Ashcroft comedy random number generator poll comes next or is that now cancelled for the remainder of summer .

the next Ashcroft national poll is in September.

A week on Wednesday we have the next round of marginals polling including the one for Bedford where my wife, Jacky, was sampled.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

MarkHopkins said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
First! I have achieved Crossover!
Yes, but will you sustain it on the next thread?

Probably not, but I can always try

RobD · August 2014

All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?

Richard_Tyndall · August 2014

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?

No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.

RobD · August 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.

No wonder Populus can't survey them!

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.

RobD · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.

Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....

Pulpstar · August 2014

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
No wonder Populus can't survey them!

Allahu Cameron

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.

Depleted YouGov ordnance?

RobD · August 2014

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
No wonder Populus can't survey them!
Allahu Cameron

I think it was Scrapheap who said simply "golf is great..." on a previous thread. I was left wondering what the arabic translation of that was...

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....

Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.

Pulpstar · August 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.

Mike K won't want to be described as a Tory ^_~

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
Mike K won't want to be described as a Tory ^_~

Likud?

compouter2 · August 2014

Desperate times for tired squirrals. PB Hodges marched all the way back down the hill.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

One for Morris Dancer, as the country becomes more like the Jeremy Kyle Show

Lie detector tests introduced to monitor released sex offenders

Tests compulsory on high-risk sex offenders let out on licence, as handful of officers trained to operate polygraph machines

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/08/lie-detector-polygraph-tests-introduced-monitor-sex-offenders

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
No wonder Populus can't survey them!
Allahu Cameron
I think it was Scrapheap who said simply "golf is great..." on a previous thread. I was left wondering what the arabic translation of that was...

الغولف كبيرة

https://translate.google.co.uk/

RobD · August 2014

compouter2 said:
Desperate times for tired squirrals. PB Hodges marched all the way back down the hill.

Thought you'd be interested in answering this:

"And how are we going to define a cross-over?"

Given how much you bang on about it ;-)

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.

We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.

compouter2 · August 2014

RobD said:

compouter2 said:
Desperate times for tired squirrals. PB Hodges marched all the way back down the hill.
Thought you'd be interested in answering this:

"And how are we going to define a cross-over?"

Given how much you bang on about it ;-)

I'll go and ask Basil, he's is the one doing most of the carrying, and report back.

compouter2 · August 2014

Another Minister resigns. I balme Populus. ARF!

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.

Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party

MaxPB · August 2014

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
No wonder Populus can't survey them!
Allahu Cameron

God is Cameron?

Surely you mean Cameronu Mubarak!

compouter2 · August 2014

Wonder if we see the old PB Hodge cry of Crossover, if we have a bit of Cameroonian reverse swingback on the ICM?

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:
All the Tories have gone on holiday, surely?
No, from what I can see most of them are off volunteering to drop bombs on Arabs for no particular good reason.
No wonder Populus can't survey them!
Allahu Cameron
God is Cameron?

Surely you mean Cameronu Mubarak!

Eton Mubarak, surely!

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party

I was talking about the Great Britain part.

England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.

RobD · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party

Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another

We should take back the Republic of Ireland.

It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.

We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.

RobD · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another
We should take back the Republic of Ireland.

It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.

We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.

They are welcome to join us, however I fear such a proposal wouldn't go down well with the populace at large!

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html

MaxPB · August 2014

If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

RobD · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html

Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another
We should take back the Republic of Ireland.

It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.

We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.
They are welcome to join us, however I fear such a proposal wouldn't go down well with the populace at large!

I'm very persuasive, one of my first acts as Directly Elected Dictator would be to unite Ireland.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Sorry to hear that.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. D, the only use of a polygraph, aside from as a doorstop, is to frighten stupid people into confessing.

Paedophiles, as mentioned in my linked piece, are phenomenally good liars. The polygraph will do more harm than good, because those who are reoffending may well fool the magic box of truthiness, and get a scientific seal of approval.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.

I was taught how to fool a lie detector test.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. Max, I'm sorry to hear that, and agree that the Caliphate isn't merely a threat to Iraq and Syria or even the wider region, but to the world [I'm not saying it could conquer the world, merely that it will help to create more terrorism].

Mr. Eagles, yeah, we learnt a few ways at university. It's an absolute crock of shit.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

Ed Miliband's Agenda Branded 'Pathetic, Bland And Catastrophic' By Labour Grassroots

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/11/ed-miliband-labour-policy-grassroots-criticism_n_5667341.html?1407762702

OldKingCole · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Terriblel news indeed. My sympathies to you and your family.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Iraqi president asks a new man to form a government as PM. However, Maliki's forces have secured several key locations overnight:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28739975

Maliki seems to be willing to sacrifice his country to try and save his premiership. Does he think ISIS will let him stay PM?

Pulpstar · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Awful news.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
I was talking about the Great Britain part.

England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.

"Great" is a geographical expression, to distinguish from Brittany.

Brittany is "Bretagne", while GB is "Grande Bretagne"

MrJones · August 2014

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.

I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.

CopperSulphate · August 2014

MikeSmithson said:

MarkSenior said:
Ashcroft comedy random number generator poll comes next or is that now cancelled for the remainder of summer .
A week on Wednesday we have the next round of marginals polling including the one for Bedford where my wife, Jacky, was sampled.

I must admit that these marginal polls sound very thorough indeed.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Most shocking, sincere condolences to you and your family.

OldKingCole · August 2014

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.

Hence it’s use on the JK Show? (first possibility!)

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another
We should take back the Republic of Ireland.

It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.

We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.
They are welcome to join us, however I fear such a proposal wouldn't go down well with the populace at large!
I'm very persuasive, one of my first acts as Directly Elected Dictator would be to unite Ireland.

Will you create a Grand Army of the ~~Republic~~ Commonwealth?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
I was talking about the Great Britain part.

England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.
"Great" is a geographical expression, to distinguish from Brittany.

Brittany is "Bretagne", while GB is "Grande Bretagne"

We're the rainy archipelago in the North Atlantic, that was Western Europe's only holdout against the Nazis, we're the lot who set up a benign Empire on which the sun never set on.

That's two of the many reasons why we're great.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.

No it does not.

RobD · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

My sympathies.

MrJones · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Iraqi president asks a new man to form a government as PM. However, Maliki's forces have secured several key locations overnight:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28739975

Maliki seems to be willing to sacrifice his country to try and save his premiership. Does he think ISIS will let him stay PM?

The US want Maliki out because he isn't anti-Iran enough. Everything happening in Iraq is about the Russia-Syria-Iran vs America-Saudi-Gulf (+Turks as wild card) regional conflict that was started by the implosion of Iraq using factions inside Iraq and Syria as proxies.

MarkHopkins · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Sorry to hear that. That's appalling.

MaxPB · August 2014

Thanks for the condolences, we've been advised not to travel for the funeral because of the terrorist threat so my grandfather is going to hold a memorial here. My mum just told me he was a doctor and decided to stay in Kenya after everyone left because he felt people there needed his services more than they would in the UK.

The Kenyan government needs to get a handle on Boko Haram. They are just randomly killing people with no set agenda.

Pulpstar · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.

Jezza Kyle told me they were right !

MrJones · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.

If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.

MonikerDiCanio · August 2014

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
I was talking about the Great Britain part.

England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.
"Great" is a geographical expression, to distinguish from Brittany.

Brittany is "Bretagne", while GB is "Grande Bretagne"

To continue the geographical theme;

"India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the Equator."
WSC

MaxPB · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.

Both iirc. Al-Shabab are near the border with Somalia and Boko Haram operate within the country.

MrJones · August 2014

OldKingCole said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
Hence it’s use on the JK Show? (first possibility!)

Yeah. Consistency doesn't mean 100% - which is why it shouldn't be used as evidence. It includes margin of error.

RobD · August 2014

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.

Not sure how you can consistently get a result which depends on something? Do you mean irrespective of the number asked?

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.

You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. Jones, the margin of error is bloody enormous. You might as well toss a coin.

fitalass · August 2014

Sorry to hear this news Max, condolences to your family.

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

MrJones · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Jones, the margin of error is bloody enormous. You might as well toss a coin.

It's no different from polling - margin of error on one person is a lot higher than the margin of error on multiple.

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. Jones, the success rate is circa 50-65%. That's tossing a coin territory.

And it neglects the most important attribute of the polygraph: it doesn't bloody work.

MrJones · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.

If it can't be used as evidence there's no incentive to using manipulating language. You'd want the test as clean as possible.

MrJones · August 2014

RobD said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
Not sure how you can consistently get a result which depends on something? Do you mean irrespective of the number asked?

Using probability. It specifically (edit: depends) on the number asked.

RobD · August 2014

MrJones said:

RobD said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
Not sure how you can consistently get a result which depends on something? Do you mean irrespective of the number asked?
Using probability. It specifically (edit: depends) on the number asked.

I think you'll have to break it down further (just woke up so brain not fully engaged). You are saying you consistently get the right answer, therefore it shouldn't depend at all on how many people you ask?

Scott_P · August 2014

"Alex Salmond's failure to be honest with Scots about his Plan B on currency is costing him votes. It's clear that the momentum in this campaign is with those of us who believe the brightest future for Scotland is to remain part of the UK.

"Alex Salmond wants us to take a leap into the unknown with independence. He wants us to take a huge risk with the future of our country. Yet he can't tell us what money our wages, pensions and benefits would be paid in.

"He can't say what currency we would use to invest in our schools and hospitals. And he can't be clear about what money we would be paying our supermarket and energy bills in."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/poll-shows-rise-no-vote-support-143830885.html#bQUPn3H

DavidL · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Condolences Max. Such a waste.

We are indeed fortunate where and when we live.

MrJones · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Jones, the success rate is circa 50-65%. That's tossing a coin territory.

And it neglects the most important attribute of the polygraph: it doesn't bloody work.

1) The average witness is different from the average criminal
2) Probability works on sample size

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.
If it can't be used as evidence there's no incentive to using manipulating language. You'd want the test as clean as possible.

Again, showing your lack of understanding.

The manipulation doesn't have to be deliberate, it can be accidental.

For example, people wrongly interchange the charge manslaughter with murder.

Or loose definitions of crimes.

MrJones · August 2014

RobD said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
Not sure how you can consistently get a result which depends on something? Do you mean irrespective of the number asked?
Using probability. It specifically (edit: depends) on the number asked.

I think you'll have to break it down further (just woke up so brain not fully engaged). You are saying you consistently get the right answer, therefore it shouldn't depend at all on how many people you ask?

The opposite. Probability consistently working depends on sample size.

murali_s · August 2014

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.
Both iirc. Al-Shabab are near the border with Somalia and Boko Haram operate within the country.

I believe Boko Haram almost exclusively operate in Nigeria (though a few attacks in Cameroon have been attributed to them).

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

Mr. Jones, but the polygraph doesn't work. If its random whirrings spew out multiple wrong answers that would implicate an innocent man of crime, or seem to exonerate a guilty party.

It's like suggesting we use a Magic 8 Ball when interrogating suspects.

OldKingCole · August 2014

MaxPB said:
Thanks for the condolences, we've been advised not to travel for the funeral because of the terrorist threat so my grandfather is going to hold a memorial here. My mum just told me he was a doctor and decided to stay in Kenya after everyone left because he felt people there needed his services more than they would in the UK.

The Kenyan government needs to get a handle on Boko Haram. They are just randomly killing people with no set agenda.

It must be getting worse for your family! Dreadful.

isam · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Yes, we lost one part of the Union, and we are bloody well not going to lose another
We should take back the Republic of Ireland.

It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.

We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.

I'm writing from Dublin airport! I'll try to conduct a poll of locals for your idea

Photography in Gaelic is a v long word!

MrJones · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.
If it can't be used as evidence there's no incentive to using manipulating language. You'd want the test as clean as possible.

Again, showing your lack of understanding.

The manipulation doesn't have to be deliberate, it can be accidental.

For example, people wrongly interchange the charge manslaughter with murder.

Or loose definitions of crimes.

Fair enough however if it can't be used as evidence then the *incentive* is for it to be as clean as possible.

JakeM · August 2014

"A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you"

Does appearing on Countdown count as false memory recall?

Or someone saying they were bisexual only a few years ago and now say they are heterosexual?

JosiasJessop · August 2014

MaxPB said:
If anyone thinks that Islamic extremism isn't a threat to normal people think again. My father just received some terrible news, his uncle has been shot dead in Nairobi by Islamists while driving home. He was in his own car and posed no threat to anyone. He was a good man and though I only met him a few times when he came here for weddings or when I went there on holiday, he will be missed. Such a waste of life.

Condolences Max. He sounds like he was a good man, trying to do a good thing.

TheScreamingEagles · August 2014

Here's one example of how rubbish and easy to get the wrong result on a lie detector, in a rape investigation, involving Mr X who is not guilty of anything in his life.

Interviewer: Mr X do you think, it is wrong, possibly rape, to sleep with a drunk woman

Mr X: Yes

Mr X, then remembers the time he was 22 and slept with a very drunk girl, his heart rate then elevates, then he remembers he was also very drunk at the time.

Interviewer notes the increase in the heart rate and the sweats.

MaxPB · August 2014

murali_s said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.
Both iirc. Al-Shabab are near the border with Somalia and Boko Haram operate within the country.
I believe Boko Haram almost exclusively operate in Nigeria (though a few attacks in Cameroon have been attributed to them).

Must have been Al-Shabab in that case, we don't have much detail yet other than it was a drive by attack by terrorists.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

MonikerDiCanio said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with ICM as Tories take one for the Union.

Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Quite right... :')

Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Excellent native PB Tory wit! [pinches TSE's cheek]

Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
We're The Conservative and Unionist Party of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much as having a threesome on your own.
Dumbass Tories LOL!

The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!

Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
I was talking about the Great Britain part.

England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.
"Great" is a geographical expression, to distinguish from Brittany.

Brittany is "Bretagne", while GB is "Grande Bretagne"
To continue the geographical theme;

"India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the Equator."
WSC

He must have missed that the Allies had among their ranks the INDIAN Army

MrJones · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Jones, but the polygraph doesn't work. If its random whirrings spew out multiple wrong answers that would implicate an innocent man of crime, or seem to exonerate a guilty party.

It's like suggesting we use a Magic 8 Ball when interrogating suspects.

According to QI (IIRC) Aborigine witch doctors use a magic finger bone. Works fine.

Like I say, not well enough for evidence but I can see certain situations where it could be used in investigations.

Sunil_Prasannan · August 2014

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
Jezza Kyle told me they were right !

What about Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct? She was able to fool the lie detector!

OldKingCole · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:
Here's one example of how rubbish and easy to get the wrong result on a lie detector, in a rape investigation, involving Mr X who is not guilty of anything in his life.

Interviewer: Mr X do you think, it is wrong, possibly rape, to sleep with a drunk woman

Mr X: Yes

Mr X, then remembers the time he was 22 and slept with a very drunk girl, his heart rate then elevates, then he remembers he was also very drunk at the time.

Interviewer notes the increase in the heart rate and the sweats.

If you both sleep, what does it matter? What does it say in Macbeth about drink? Lechery, Sir, it preventeth!

Hugh · August 2014

compouter2 said:
Wonder if we see the old PB Hodge cry of Crossover, if we have a bit of Cameroonian reverse swingback on the ICM?

Heh.

Wonder what'll happen if the Tories in opposition after the next election take a poll lead.

Will the PB Hodge poll analyst extraordinaires bang on endlessly for years about "Crossover" and "Swingback" (Always happens, inevitable, blah blah)?

GIN1138 · August 2014

compouter2 said:
Wonder if we see the old PB Hodge cry of Crossover, if we have a bit of Cameroonian reverse swingback on the ICM?

Will it be

#CrossOverMonday ?

Or

#CrossBackMonday ?

Either way it's certainly #MegaPollingMonday

murali_s · August 2014

MaxPB said:

murali_s said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.
Both iirc. Al-Shabab are near the border with Somalia and Boko Haram operate within the country.
I believe Boko Haram almost exclusively operate in Nigeria (though a few attacks in Cameroon have been attributed to them).
Must have been Al-Shabab in that case, we don't have much detail yet other than it was a drive by attack by terrorists.

Yes, most likely Al Shabab. - very sorry to hear this sad news...

MrJones · August 2014

TheScreamingEagles said:
Here's one example of how rubbish and easy to get the wrong result on a lie detector, in a rape investigation, involving Mr X who is not guilty of anything in his life.

Interviewer: Mr X do you think, it is wrong, possibly rape, to sleep with a drunk woman

Mr X: Yes

Mr X, then remembers the time he was 22 and slept with a very drunk girl, his heart rate then elevates, then he remembers he was also very drunk at the time.

Interviewer notes the increase in the heart rate and the sweats.

100% agree. You're thinking about suspects. I'm thinking about witnesses.

isam · August 2014

MaxPB said:

murali_s said:

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Max, is Kenya being attacked by both Boko Haram and Al-Shabab [Somalian Al-Qaeda affiliates]?

It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.
Both iirc. Al-Shabab are near the border with Somalia and Boko Haram operate within the country.
I believe Boko Haram almost exclusively operate in Nigeria (though a few attacks in Cameroon have been attributed to them).
Must have been Al-Shabab in that case, we don't have much detail yet other than it was a drive by attack by terrorists.

My condolences Max, how awful

Morris_Dancer · August 2014

King Cole, isn't it more that wine provoketh the desire and unprovoketh the performance?

saddened · August 2014

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.
If it can't be used as evidence there's no incentive to using manipulating language. You'd want the test as clean as possible.

Again, showing your lack of understanding.

The manipulation doesn't have to be deliberate, it can be accidental.

For example, people wrongly interchange the charge manslaughter with murder.

Or loose definitions of crimes.

Fair enough however if it can't be used as evidence then the *incentive* is for it to be as clean as possible.

How accurate is it when your job depends on it as is the case with a lot of American government jobs.

Pulpstar · August 2014

Hugh said:

compouter2 said:
Wonder if we see the old PB Hodge cry of Crossover, if we have a bit of Cameroonian reverse swingback on the ICM?
Heh.

Wonder what'll happen if the Tories in opposition after the next election take a poll lead.

Will the PB Hodge poll analyst extraordinaires bang on endlessly for years about "Crossover" and "Swingback" (Always happens, inevitable, blah blah)?

Hmm the Swingback theory did make Rod Crosby money in the 2010 General Election.

I think his "by-election swingback" model is showing a Labour seat win at the moment though...

MrJones · August 2014

saddened said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MrJones said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.

http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Agreed, if it is not admissible in court, I can't see how they can use it.
I think it could be quite useful in investigations e.g. when people are scared of someone they know did something. Not as evidence though as it only works consistently on people who are dumb or naturally honest.
No it does not.
If you had someone stabbed with a lot of witnesses but none of them wanted to say who did it and you asked them individually on a lie detector if x or y did it then you would consistently get the right answer depending on the number asked.

I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
You really shouldn't talk about topics you don't know about.

A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you

But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.
If it can't be used as evidence there's no incentive to using manipulating language. You'd want the test as clean as possible.

Again, showing your lack of understanding.

The manipulation doesn't have to be deliberate, it can be accidental.

For example, people wrongly interchange the charge manslaughter with murder.

Or loose definitions of crimes.

Fair enough however if it can't be used as evidence then the *incentive* is for it to be as clean as possible.

How accurate is it when your job depends on it as is the case with a lot of American government jobs.

I'm talking about specific situations like where there's been a stabbing or a shooting on a housing estate with lots of witnesses but no-one will say.

OldKingCole · August 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
King Cole, isn't it more that wine provoketh the desire and unprovoketh the performance?

Just looked it up, and you are right. Mind it’s 60 years since I had to study the Scottish Play. And, sadly, I’ve no opportunity nowadays to test the veracity of the statement!

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