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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?
This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% one now.
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A week on Wednesday we have the next round of marginals polling including the one for Bedford where my wife, Jacky, was sampled.
Tory lead once the indyref is concluded.
Edit: Sunil in 3...2...1....
Just to remind all, there are 40+ seats for Labour in Scotland, only a handful possible for the Tories.
Lie detector tests introduced to monitor released sex offenders
Tests compulsory on high-risk sex offenders let out on licence, as handful of officers trained to operate polygraph machines
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/08/lie-detector-polygraph-tests-introduced-monitor-sex-offenders
https://translate.google.co.uk/
"And how are we going to define a cross-over?"
Given how much you bang on about it ;-)
Winning without Scotland in the UK will be as much fun as having a threesome on your own.
The "Unionist" bit refers to the UNION with IRELAND, not SCOTLAND!
Today's Tory party came about in 1912 through merger of the Liberal Unionist and Conservative Parties over the question of Irish Home Rule. The LU's broke with the Liberals in 1886.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
Surely you mean Cameronu Mubarak!
England, Scotland and Wales together is what makes us Great.
It's a solution that makes everyone a winner.
We have a united Ireland and Northern Ireland still remains in the Union.
Mr. Eagles, the increasing use of the polygraph is depressing. It's about as scientifically valuable as astrology.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html
Paedophiles, as mentioned in my linked piece, are phenomenally good liars. The polygraph will do more harm than good, because those who are reoffending may well fool the magic box of truthiness, and get a scientific seal of approval.
Mr. Eagles, yeah, we learnt a few ways at university. It's an absolute crock of shit.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/11/ed-miliband-labour-policy-grassroots-criticism_n_5667341.html?1407762702
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28739975
Maliki seems to be willing to sacrifice his country to try and save his premiership. Does he think ISIS will let him stay PM?
Brittany is "Bretagne", while GB is "Grande Bretagne"
RepublicCommonwealth?That's two of the many reasons why we're great.
The Kenyan government needs to get a handle on Boko Haram. They are just randomly killing people with no set agenda.
I agree it shouldn't be evidence.
It seems almost all the news now is about extremist religious lunatics doing terrible things.
"India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the Equator."
WSC
A quick google about False memory recall and manipulation thereof using language might educate you
But I'll make a prediction, you thought the Banksta did the stabbing.
And it neglects the most important attribute of the polygraph: it doesn't bloody work.
Condolences Max. Such a waste.
We are indeed fortunate where and when we live.
2) Probability works on sample size
The manipulation doesn't have to be deliberate, it can be accidental.
For example, people wrongly interchange the charge manslaughter with murder.
Or loose definitions of crimes.
It's like suggesting we use a Magic 8 Ball when interrogating suspects.
Photography in Gaelic is a v long word!
Fair enough however if it can't be used as evidence then the *incentive* is for it to be as clean as possible.
Does appearing on Countdown count as false memory recall?
Or someone saying they were bisexual only a few years ago and now say they are heterosexual?
Interviewer: Mr X do you think, it is wrong, possibly rape, to sleep with a drunk woman
Mr X: Yes
Mr X, then remembers the time he was 22 and slept with a very drunk girl, his heart rate then elevates, then he remembers he was also very drunk at the time.
Interviewer notes the increase in the heart rate and the sweats.
Like I say, not well enough for evidence but I can see certain situations where it could be used in investigations.
Wonder what'll happen if the Tories in opposition after the next election take a poll lead.
Will the PB Hodge poll analyst extraordinaires bang on endlessly for years about "Crossover" and "Swingback" (Always happens, inevitable, blah blah)?
#CrossOverMonday ?
Or
#CrossBackMonday ?
Either way it's certainly #MegaPollingMonday
I think his "by-election swingback" model is showing a Labour seat win at the moment though...