Pence for the 2024 nomination looks a good bet at 14/1 – politicalbetting.com
Pence for the 2024 nomination looks a good bet at 14/1 – politicalbetting.com
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Pence for the 2024 nomination looks a good bet at 14/1 – politicalbetting.com
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I suspect this is not a great bet. Pence is - despite four years of devoted service - persona non grata with the Trump wing of the party for his failure to back the President at the end.
Last GE, Con won 4.
I guess argument against is that he probably doesn't beat Trump if Trump runs, and if Trump *doesn't* run then it seems bad to be the candidate that Trump's part of the base literally want to hang by the neck until he's dead. Also I feel like Biden notwithstanding, the social media age demands a little bit more feistiness from candidates; Maybe look at Chris Christie.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has launched an investigation into a data breach involving the email addresses of dozens of Afghan interpreters who worked for British forces.
...
"Some of the interpreters didn't notice the mistake and they replied to all the emails already and they explained their situation which is very dangerous. The email contains their profile pictures and contact details."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58629592
God help them. And why is this sort of cock-up not automatically blocked by default?
Plus Crist currently leads De Santis in Florida governor polls so De Santis may not be a candidate either
Of those seats reporting the Liberals are on 87, the Conservatives on 40 and the NDP and BQ each on 15 and the Greens on 1.
So on current results Trudeau's Liberals would even have a majority but of course most of the West is yet to report and that is the Conservatives best region though the Liberals lead in a handful of Alberta seats and they won 0 there in 2019
https://globalnews.ca/news/8164886/live-canada-election-results-2021-real-time-results-federal-election/
Liberals doing better than expected in BC of the votes in so far though, even leading in a few NDP and Conservative seats. Liberals also doing better than in 2019 in urban Alberta ie Edmonton and Calgary and could win back a handful of seats they lost there at the last election to the Conservatives
https://globalnews.ca/news/8164886/live-canada-election-results-2021-real-time-results-federal-election/
That would be a swing from Conservatives to Liberals of 2.9% since 2019.
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
Currently Liberals lead in 151 seats, Conservatives in 117, BQ in 28 and NDP in 27 and Greens in 3.
Conservatives not doing enough and still below their 2019 total then, NDP now fractionally above their 2019 total, otherwise little change and Trudeau's Liberals win most seats and he will get another minority government
Night all
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
154 Lib
121 Con
30 NDP
30 BQ
2 Green
O'Toole doing better in Ontario relative to 2019 than he is nationally but still nowhere near enough for him to become PM
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
Basically, it's a "why did they bother" election.
It's now Cons and Libs with literally no change at all on 2019.
Sigh.
Do we know if the postal votes are likely to be Conservative or Liberal biased?
But the whole thing was ridiculous. Two years in - absent some major event like Brexit - is incredibly self indulgent.
Lib +1
Con -
BQ -1
Sorry about the tiny image!
The collapse of this glorious dream hits the French hard and triggers deep-seated fears of decline. With Germany ever more dominant in the European Union, and the Anglophone countries marginalizing French influence in much of the rest of the world, what role is left for France?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-france-aukus-nuclear-submarines-australia-britain-ambassador-indo-pacific-11632166702?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/pe3wcrv077
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1440181836668231689?s=20
R4 commentator remarking that Trudeau’s early poll lead lost over the campaign and he didn’t get majority he wanted, Canadians resenting “unnecessary” election.
Up very early indeed as am going to the Chelsea Flower Show today. Husband was due to come but has decided against. I think it safe to leave him so he kindly gave me permission. We are, as I am sure you have all realised by now, a very traditional family. And of course I did not need to cook him dinner before I left!
😁
Frankly, the French were the only game in town. (Britain is unable to sell nuclear powered subs to third parties because we license some reactor technology from the US.)
To me, the most interesting part is that the Americans are now willing to sell nuclear subs to allies. That's potentially game changing for the Taiwanese, for example.
Like calling a district wherein it runs the Route 66 District or similar.
Glad Mr Cyclefree is on the mend.
NEW: U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 677,000, surpassing the number of Americans who died during the Spanish Flu pandemic
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1440056242680963075?s=19
Though only a third when adjusted for population.
Oh well.
With 97% of votes in it looks like the Canadian Conservatives have comfortably won the popular vote for the second consecutive federal election with 34.1% to just 31.9% for Trudeau's Liberals.
However Trudeau's Liberals have equally comfortably still won most seats with 156 to just 121 for O'Toole's Conservatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Canadian_federal_election
I see Charlie Crist would beat DeSantis in Florida in the governor's race next year too if he gets the Democratic nomination on the latest polling so if that was the case Pence would be the main non Trump candidate if Trump runs again and the frontrunner if Trump does not run
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election
At least Trudeau has considered changing it! In this country we're apparently going to see it brought in for elections where 'your lot' think they'll benefit from it.
Personally I am not a diehard FPTP fan, I voted for AV in 2011 and doubt it will make any difference in London, Boris won under the current supplementary system and Bailey and Goldsmith and Norris would all have lost under FPTP anyway
Their main requirements appear to have been
As much as possible constructed in Aussie shipyard(s).
Conventional powerplant
Very large range.
Modern, western weapons systems.
They talked to Japan about their existing Soryu class, but the deal broke down (I think mainly because of the amount of work that would be done in Oz). The Spanish sub is a literal joke, and the Germans' one is too small for their requirements.
Therefore they basically needed a bespoke sub - one with the latest tech, but with mahoosive range. Nuclear power is ideal for the latter requirement, but the Australians specifically did not want it. The Aussie who wrote the requirements spec want to work in France, and, lo and behold! - the French offer a conventional version of their Barracuda nuclear submarine. Which, to all intents and purposes, is a brand-new design.
The Aussies should either have dropped the no-nuclear requirement back around 2010, or gone with the Soryu deal and built a second sub base on another coast. It would have saved them a heck of a lot of time, money and anguish.
The 2024 campaign is going to be a choice between varieties of awful as America consumes itself.
Japan had a very capable design (the Soryu) already in service, whose range could easily have been extended to meet Australian requirements. It's recently lunched successor is even better.
And the chances of the US selling nuclear boats to Taiwan is somewhere around zero.
The French might now be tempted ?
(Incidentally, a US worry about Taiwan is they can't build enough of their own subs over the next decade to replace the one they are retiring, which creates a temporary weakness in their ability to deploy in the area.)
"Fifty-one percent of respondents now say Trump was a better president than Biden, while 49 percent prefer the White House’s current occupant, the poll shows."
This new finding seems to be more people working out what a mediocrity Biden is, than any huge surge in love for Trump:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573036-poll-biden-trump-statistically-tied-in-favorability
Definitely on topic, the poll gives Pence a 10% lead in favourability as VP over Harris.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573040-poll-trump-dominates-2024-republican-primary-field
It's a very distant second, though, and if Trump were to drop out for some reason, I can't see him picking up much of Trump's support.
Mike's idea of a groundswell of independent and Democrats registering to take down Trump in the primaries seems a little fanciful given his huge lead - and if he doesn't run, it's not going to happen anyway.
14/1 might be a fairish price, but it's a trading bet at best.
The critique of FPTP is that it is undemocratic. This just provides a bit more evidence.
Port Hedland in Northern West Australia is perhaps suitable. It takes very large Iron ore carriers, but is rather remote from other infrastructure and technical expertise.
If they intend to try to do the same with these nuclear subs, the same massive delays are likely to happen. It might make more sense for us to build them, given how little work we'll have after we finish building ours. AFAIK, the US doesn't have much in the way of spare capacity ?
Eg in February 1974 Heath's Tories won the popular vote but Wilson's Labour won most seats.
In 2005 too Howard's Tories won the popular vote in England with 35.7% to 35.4% for Blair's Labour but Blair's Labour still comfortably won most seats in England with 286 to just 194 for Howard's Tories
The choice of parties in Germany is more to my taste.
It wouldn't surprise me if we end up building at least the first few as I believe the last of our Submarines are due to come off the production line in 2025...
Perhaps simpler to extend range would be a couple of submarine refuleing ships!
And in Germany, they have a choice of parties, but do they have a choice of government? I guess we're about to find out.
No need to vote in a Democratic primary so the voters can try and ensure a sane(r) Republican candidate.
Pence has name recognition but I suspect the baggage is too great. The problem is who else will stand on the "Not being Trump" platform. I suspect a lot depends on whether Trump stands and who else bothers if Trump is a candidate.
They might still get much of the value of the contract supplying the powerplants and weapon systems.
In the popular vote in BC the Conservatives lead on 33.5% with the NDP second on 29% and the Liberals 3rd on just 26.8% but in seats the Liberals lead in BC on 15 with the Conservatives on 13 and the NDP also on 13
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
Someone (Dura-Ace?) suggested that the nuclear section might be built for them, and they build the rest of the hull and vessel. Or they might have decided to abandon the idea of constructing them.
"One of the main criteria of the project was that Australian industries contribute to at least 60% of the work; by the conclusion of the project 70% of the construction and 45% of the software preparation had been completed by Australian-owned companies"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Construction
That link has an interesting paragraph. Why go to the cost of constructing them yourself, when it's cheaper to buy? The answer is that it can kickstart industry:
"The project prompted major increases in quality control standards across Australian industries: in 1980, only 35 Australian companies possessed the appropriate quality control certifications for Defence projects, but by 1998 this had increased to over 1,500."
Since Jan 6th - the Trumpets hate Pence. The non-fundies despise him.
There is no single approach which delivers a thing called democracy, because the concept, while excellent, is an abstraction not a system.
All available system options have pluses and minuses, all of which are well known.
Discussion should centre round what system delivers better than the others overall, and what 'better' might mean.
(IMHO the alternative vote system is the one tweak needed in FPTP, leaving its virtues more or less intact but allowing greater scope for the emergence of alternatives. But as we democratically rejected it FPTP it is.)
It seems that the French contract broke the back of the cost argument - by ending up with a cost per sub that was in the nuclear range anyway.
Mr. Divvie, question is, if the lights go out for us, do they go out for the PM?
It's all been left purposefully vague, like Brexit in 2016, so that all manner of hopes, dreams and fantasies (like building the submarines in the UK) can be projected onto its tabula rasa.