politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014
Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence)
Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP
Comments
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This must be one of the few occasions that I have been first in one of my own postings (and there is a reason for this) and that is: As you know I have been tallying these local by-elections for a very long time and would like to know what I can do to improve them? At the moment I can only do simple text and colouring so at the moments graphics have to be pictures done from Powerpoint but if there is anything that you would like especially then please do say and I shall try my best to accommodate0
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Thanks Harry for all you do. Sorry that this week we've got a bit diverted by Scotland.
I think we need to look at some means of tabulating the data.0 -
Shouldn't the Castle on Worthing be a 22.5% swing from LibDem to UKIP? The Tory vote went up.0
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Thanks, Mr. Hayfield.
I think emboldening the results could work well.0 -
FPT @HurstLlama
"I'm not sure that the general population would have really cared while nobles were in charge and collecting taxes." [@charles]
Really there is a whole book to be written just on that topic alone. If I ever do get around to doing a PhD it will probably be on that sort of topic. You see the peasants in England really never were the sort of mindless serfs that your sentence suggests and they most certainly weren't by the reign of Henry V.
Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight.0 -
FPT
@Charles
"Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight."
I am really not sure I can go along with that. This is much tied up with the idea of Nation and the development of the Nation State. I think that happened a lot earlier in England that it did in France. In fact I would suggest that England as a nation state had already occurred by the time Henry V came to the throne, but was not to happen in France for another few centuries (arguably until Bonaparte).
So in England, but probably less so in France, the peasants really did care who was on the top of the pile and, as you will know, the City of London certainly did.0 -
Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
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It's really relevant to the PBdotcom raison d'etre (sorry about the semi-literate French) to have these regular postings. For me the words that alow quick scanning are "GAIN" and "Hold". The more detailed info clusters around them, usefully.0
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Charles said:
FPT @HurstLlama
"I'm not sure that the general population would have really cared while nobles were in charge and collecting taxes." [@charles]
Really there is a whole book to be written just on that topic alone. If I ever do get around to doing a PhD it will probably be on that sort of topic. You see the peasants in England really never were the sort of mindless serfs that your sentence suggests and they most certainly weren't by the reign of Henry V.
Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight.
I love the story of the Paston family which has been so well recorded in 14th and 15th century letters. From yeoman farmers to owners of Caister Castle in 3 generations and ultimately to the Earldom of Yarmouth and the royal family through marriage between the 2nd Earl and one of Charles II's illegitimate daughters. One of my cousins is descended from the early Pastons which rather suggests I probably am too. They went to great lengths to hide their 'humble' origins. Bettany Hughes devotes almost an entire programme to them in her Seven Ages of Britain series.
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And a good night for UKIP who show increasing strength even through the opening holiday season:TCPoliticalBetting said:Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%0 -
You gov at what time .... and any others tonight ?0
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I'm booked to go on Radio 4's "The Westminster Hour" tomorrow talking about Boris.
Next Saturday I'm do doing a gig at the Edinburgh Festival of Politics with John Curtice0 -
1/4 of the votes - nailed on for 160+ MPs...MikeK said:
And a good night for UKIP who show increasing strength even through the opening holiday season:TCPoliticalBetting said:Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%0 -
Mr. Smithson, what time's that on?0
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YouGov Sunday Times poll usually comes out at 6am unless bits are released early on the Times website.TGOHF said:You gov at what time .... and any others tonight ?
I'm expecting some other IndyRef polling but I tend only to get advance info if YES is doing well.
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Apologies for anyone who followed me on backing the draw.
In my defence
1) I didn't expect India to be so Ed Miliband crap
2) I've had an exceptionally good 2014 on the betting front, I was bound to get one wrong eventually0 -
Depends on the Sunday Times, it could be any time this evening, or 6 am in the morning.TGOHF said:You gov at what time .... and any others tonight ?
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Ta.MikeSmithson said:
YouGov Sunday Times poll usually comes out at 6am unless bits are released early on the Times website.TGOHF said:You gov at what time .... and any others tonight ?
I'm expecting some other IndyRef polling but I tend only to get advance info if YES is doing well.
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Westminster Hour starts at 10pm on Sundays on R4. I've no idea what time they'll use me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smithson, what time's that on?
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I could be cruel, I mean, Labour and brain drain in the same sentence?
Labour fears brain drain with 15% of MPs ready to quit
Doubts about Ed Miliband's leadership are said to be driving an exodus in the runup to next year's general election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/09/labour-fears-brain-drain-mps-quit0 -
Thank you #HarryHayfield for your Thursday by-election specials.
Will you be doing something similar for the actual GE2015; or is this too much to ask?0 -
Not compared to the last result in this ward in May which was won by the ConservativesEasterross said:Shouldn't the Castle on Worthing be a 22.5% swing from LibDem to UKIP? The Tory vote went up.
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Those figures are incorrectMikeK said:
And a good night for UKIP who show increasing strength even through the opening holiday season:TCPoliticalBetting said:Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%0 -
Time to start laying Rachel Reeves, (Sunil calm down)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 2h
Rachel Reeves has moved ahead of Yvette Cooper in the race to be next Labour leader > Sunday Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/lyvlyuy0 -
Against that, someone like Jack Cade didn't really give a flying.HurstLlama said:FPT
@Charles
"Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight."
I am really not sure I can go along with that. This is much tied up with the idea of Nation and the development of the Nation State. I think that happened a lot earlier in England that it did in France. In fact I would suggest that England as a nation state had already occurred by the time Henry V came to the throne, but was not to happen in France for another few centuries (arguably until Bonaparte).
So in England, but probably less so in France, the peasants really did care who was on the top of the pile and, as you will know, the City of London certainly did.0 -
The triumph of mediocrity. Reeves has done nothing to justify anyone thinking of her as a potential leader.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to start laying Rachel Reeves, (Sunil calm down)
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 2h
Rachel Reeves has moved ahead of Yvette Cooper in the race to be next Labour leader > Sunday Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/lyvlyuy0 -
Mr. Smithson, cheers.0
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The killer quote: "A source said: "There's not enough excitement about Ed. Some worry about him losing the general election, and some worry about him winning it."TheScreamingEagles said:I could be cruel, I mean, Labour and brain drain in the same sentence?
Labour fears brain drain with 15% of MPs ready to quit
Doubts about Ed Miliband's leadership are said to be driving an exodus in the runup to next year's general election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/09/labour-fears-brain-drain-mps-quit
Ouch.
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Please tell that to the good Lord.MarkSenior said:
Those figures are incorrectMikeK said:
And a good night for UKIP who show increasing strength even through the opening holiday season:TCPoliticalBetting said:Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%
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Wow, they must have won loads of seats. How many did they get? More than one?MikeK said:
And a good night for UKIP who show increasing strength even through the opening holiday season:TCPoliticalBetting said:Harry it is a very useful and reliable service.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%0 -
Mr. L, reminds me of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, when Spike explained he didn't do anything because he was paralysed by not caring.
I've used the wolves, sheep and high students metaphor a few times, but Labour's sheep really need to get a bit more proactive. Line up behind Miliband, or axe him properly. Same as with Brown.
It's too late to axe him now, so they may as well line up behind him.0 -
Arf! - More than 15% of Labour MP's "may" quit which does include a possible "ten" more to make it 15%. Whilst over in the Tory Party 11% have already said they are standing down. Mega Arf!TheScreamingEagles said:I could be cruel, I mean, Labour and brain drain in the same sentence?
Labour fears brain drain with 15% of MPs ready to quit
Doubts about Ed Miliband's leadership are said to be driving an exodus in the runup to next year's general election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/09/labour-fears-brain-drain-mps-quit0 -
The twelfth century is in the high, not the late middle ages. There is also the suggestion that the Abelard-Héloïse letters are forgeries; a view which the late Sir Richard Southern seemed to have accepted in his final years, albeit he was not prepared to say so in print for fear of offending the mob.SeanT said:Second only (tho a distant second) to the letters of Abelard and Eloise in terms of startling late medieval epistolary revelations.
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The first few series of Buffy were just brilliant and extremely funny. All got a bit dark and miserable latterly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, reminds me of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, when Spike explained he didn't do anything because he was paralysed by not caring.
I've used the wolves, sheep and high students metaphor a few times, but Labour's sheep really need to get a bit more proactive. Line up behind Miliband, or axe him properly. Same as with Brown.
It's too late to axe him now, so they may as well line up behind him.
Labour are as stuck with Ed now as the SNP are with Salmond. It is just too late to change things and frankly the alternatives are far from dazzling.
But there was a huge clearout of labour MPs in the last Parliament, not only from lost seats but also retirements. Another heavy wave of retirements is surprising but presumably this is related to the huge influx of the class of 97 reaching retirement.
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Baroness Warsi being very helpful on the front page of the Sunday Times
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bun-BUEIUAEOFLD.jpg0 -
That is far from true. Jack Cade's rebels presented themselves as petitioners to the crown, and even procured a commission of oyer et terminer to secure the executions of William Crowmer, Sheriff of Kent, and James Fiennes, Lord Say and Sele. [R.A. Griffiths, The Reign of King Henry VI: The exercise of royal authority, 1422-1461, (London, 1981), p. 615] A great deal of recent scholarship has demonstrated the pains to which rebels went to channel opposition into legitimate forms. [See in particular, J. Watts, 'Ideas, Principles and Politics', in A.J. Pollard (ed.), The Wars of the Roses, (Basingstoke, 1995)]Charles said:Against that, someone like Jack Cade didn't really give a flying.
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Mr. L, Spike was my favourite character by a mile.
I agree the later series weren't as good.
Mr. Eagles, Warsi's behaviour is rather discourteous to colleagues and, perhaps more importantly, does make her resignation look less about Gaza than she claims. Maybe she's retiring from politics to write a book about the dangers of militant atheism.0 -
That was my point: Jack Cade cared about the abuses of the various underlings (Crowmer, etc), but I don't think he was trying to overthrow Henry. Equally, I am not convinced he would have cared if Henry were Henri: his focus was on reasonable treatment of the ordinary man.Life_ina_market_town said:
That is far from true. Jack Cade's rebels presented themselves as petitioners to the crown, and even procured a commission of oyer et terminer to secure the executions of William Crowmer, Sheriff of Kent, and James Fiennes, Lord Say and Sele. [R.A. Griffiths, The Reign of King Henry VI: The exercise of royal authority, 1422-1461, (London, 1981), p. 615] A great deal of recent scholarship has demonstrated the pains to which rebels went to channel opposition into legitimate forms. [See in particular, J. Watts, 'Ideas, Principles and Politics', in A.J. Pollard (ed.), The Wars of the Roses, (Basingstoke, 1995)]Charles said:Against that, someone like Jack Cade didn't really give a flying.
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Lady Warsi does kick the Lib Dems in the nuts, so no chance of a defection
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 53s
Warsi says Lib Dems are "disingenuous" over calls for arms embargo on Israel. She was "lone voice" calling for it in key meetings0 -
Mr. Eagles, she could defect to Respect, perhaps.0
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Backed 3-1 England half way through the Soton test - nervous now..TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies for anyone who followed me on backing the draw.
In my defence
1) I didn't expect India to be so Ed Miliband crap
2) I've had an exceptionally good 2014 on the betting front, I was bound to get one wrong eventually
Betfair told me to nick off re Legia Warsaw being ejected...
Oh and - lol
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers0 -
Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
0
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Ladbrokes I think did do a justice payoutTGOHF said:
Backed 3-1 England half way through the Soton test - nervous now..TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies for anyone who followed me on backing the draw.
In my defence
1) I didn't expect India to be so Ed Miliband crap
2) I've had an exceptionally good 2014 on the betting front, I was bound to get one wrong eventually
Betfair told me to nick off re Legia Warsaw being ejected...
Oh and - lol
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
I'm worried about the next test, possibility of no Broad, Jordan and Woakes do not inspire.0 -
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
Broken nose shouldn't keep him out - Finn, Anderson, Plunket and Woakes would be too much for the hapless Indians.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ladbrokes I think did do a justice payoutTGOHF said:
Backed 3-1 England half way through the Soton test - nervous now..TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies for anyone who followed me on backing the draw.
In my defence
1) I didn't expect India to be so Ed Miliband crap
2) I've had an exceptionally good 2014 on the betting front, I was bound to get one wrong eventually
Betfair told me to nick off re Legia Warsaw being ejected...
Oh and - lol
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
I'm worried about the next test, possibility of no Broad, Jordan and Woakes do not inspire.0 -
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
Cade's rebellion, and the associated political crisis of 1450, with Richard, Duke of York's return from Ireland as the commons brayed for blood, had a common cause, viz. the loss of the the remaining English possessions in France. In that sense, the rebellion of 1450 was much more concerned with national political issues than 'the reasonable treatment of the ordinary man'. It was whollly unlike that of 1381. That is hardly surprising given the growing intensity of English nationalism in the period, pace E.J. Hobsbawm, E. Gellner and the elder Anderson who assert nations and nationalism had no existence before 1789.Charles said:That was my point: Jack Cade cared about the abuses of the various underlings (Crowmer, etc), but I don't think he was trying to overthrow Henry. Equally, I am not convinced he would have cared if Henry were Henri: his focus was on reasonable treatment of the ordinary man.
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But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
You build them up, you knock them down...TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
Could be a new poll as they use ICM or they could be referring to the survation poll
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoDdFgIMAAth-W.jpg0 -
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.0 -
@HYUFD
Christie is the most unpopular republican even inside his own party.
Even if you disregard his problems with the law his record as governor stinks, New Jersey is close to bankruptcy and Christie cant pay its pensions.
In poll after poll Christie is close to the bottom in popularity in state polls and nationwide, voters hate him.0 -
Some remarkable transfer rumours about Man U floating about this evening. I suspect if even half of them come off the odds on them winning the premiership this season will tighten.0
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Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.0 -
Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse 1m
Borismania hits Britain as he opens up huge lead over Tory leadership rivals in @TheSunNewspaper poll tomorrow.0 -
In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
UKIP won the euro's after a 4 month campaign by the media that portrayed them as racist fascist sexist nazis and people still voted for them.0 -
What's your MP haul prediction ?Speedy said:
In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
UKIP won the euro's.0 -
Speedy said:oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.0 -
And they failed in Newark. And Eastleigh. Two very reasonable chances for success in a by-election.Speedy said:
In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
UKIP won the euro's.
There are people who are prepared to vote tactically to stop a UKIP candidate. That is who this sort of story is aimed at.
And it will resonate.
You might not want to believe it - but it will.0 -
To early to say but there are enough constituency polls to have a rough picture.TGOHF said:
What's your MP haul prediction ?Speedy said:
In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
UKIP won the euro's.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 2m
Sunday Times YouGov poll shows Boris streets ahead for next Tory leader: 30% for Boris, Theresa May 16%, George Osborne on just 7%.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 1m
Amongst Tory voters Boris Johnson leads Theresa May by 41% to 15% as next Tory leader in YouGov poll for Sunday Times
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1m
Boris has some way to go to convince voters he is ready. 36% say he's would be up to the job of prime Mminister, 43% say he would not.0 -
No sign of Hammond ? Lol.TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 2m
Sunday Times YouGov poll shows Boris streets ahead for next Tory leader: 30% for Boris, Theresa May 16%, George Osborne on just 7%.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 1m
Amongst Tory voters Boris Johnson leads Theresa May by 41% to 15% as next Tory leader in YouGov poll for Sunday Times
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1m
Boris has some way to go to convince voters he is ready. 36% say he's would be up to the job of prime Mminister, 43% say he would not.0 -
To this day, I still don't understand why people think David Miliband would've been more of a success as leader than Ed.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Travel/Pix/pictures/2014/8/9/1407586615078/David-Miliband-in-Times-S-011.jpg
I mean, look at that picture and try to say he doesn't look as awkward and weird as any pic of Ed.0 -
Newark was never a reasonable chance for UKIP. Those of us who knew the constituency were saying it was a Tory hold (and the reasons for that) before they even announced the by-election and we were proved absolutely right.oxfordsimon said:
And they failed in Newark. And Eastleigh. Two very reasonable chances for success in a by-election.Speedy said:
In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.oxfordsimon said:
Or it might just work. You can never be certain. Unless you are very blinkered.Speedy said:
On par with nick clegg is a nazi front pages for the last election, it wont work.TGOHF said:
But the Mail flipping a Kipper for Sunday breakfast 11 months before the GE ? I smell trouble ahead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Looks like it is one of his MEPs that said it.TGOHF said:
Farage odds on Thanet ? Lol - Winter is coming for Nigel Stark..TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
UKIP won the euro's.
There are people who are prepared to vote tactically to stop a UKIP candidate. That is who this sort of story is aimed at.
And it will resonate.
You might not want to believe it - but it will.
Using Newark as an attack on UKIP simply shows your ignorance of the constituency0 -
The same would have been said of John Major in 1989TGOHF said:
No sign of Hammond ? Lol.TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 2m
Sunday Times YouGov poll shows Boris streets ahead for next Tory leader: 30% for Boris, Theresa May 16%, George Osborne on just 7%.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 1m
Amongst Tory voters Boris Johnson leads Theresa May by 41% to 15% as next Tory leader in YouGov poll for Sunday Times
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1m
Boris has some way to go to convince voters he is ready. 36% say he's would be up to the job of prime Mminister, 43% say he would not.0 -
From the Sunday Times, the language Boris uses, oh my
In policy terms he is best known for the “Boris island” plan to build a new hub airport in the Thames estuary. More cautious souls are leaning towards a second runway at Gatwick while some Tories, including the chancellor George Osborne, favour Heathrow expansion.
Johnson is withering about their lack of ambition. “For many people it’s too big,” he says. “They can’t get their heads around it. One minister who shall remain nameless — not a million miles away from the Treasury — said this is the sort of thing they do in China. I said, ‘But isn’t that the point?’” He talks about the need for “vision”.
He laughs at the suggestion that he is being rude about the chancellor — the man most likely to deprive him of the Tory crown. Turning to his press officer, he says: “Did you hear a rude comment? I don’t think so.”
At this point an airliner noisily circles overhead, prompting Johnson to point to the skies. “That bastard is going to go round and round and round. What they’ll say to you is, ‘We’ll put a third runway in and that problem will go away.’ Bollocks!”
He is also rude about high-speed rail, another Osborne project.0 -
What I would like to do for the general election is what the BBC do (i.e base forecasts on the results as they come in) but that would require getting the same data as the BBC (which I tried to for the Euros and they never came back to me!)MikeK said:Thank you #HarryHayfield for your Thursday by-election specials. Will you be doing something similar for the actual GE2015; or is this too much to ask?
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'Hitler achieved a great deal': Ukip MEP sparks anger as he tells its youth wing to copy Nazi leader
Bill Etheridge told Ukip youth conference members to emulate Nazi leader
Lauded Hitler as 'the most magnetic and forceful public speaker in history'
Comes after the West Midlands MEP published a book celebrating golliwogs
Ministers blast speech as 'unbelievable' and call on Farage to respond
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720860/Hitler-achieved-great-deal-Ukip-MEP-sparks-anger-tells-youth-wing-copy-Nazi-leader.html0 -
So when Bill Etheridge left the Tory party and joined UKIP he improved the average IQ of both parties0
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Court The Daily Mail's approval? Interesting strategy.TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg0 -
Interesting thought
The guy who proof read Hitler's Mein Kampf, was literally a Grammar Nazi.0 -
Daily Mail The paper which has supported fascism for 80 years nowQuincel said:
Court The Daily Mail's approval? Interesting strategy.TheScreamingEagles said:Sky News @SkyNews 49s
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg-1 -
I haven't read the article but it seems Boris thinks that the plans for airports aren't big enough (no vision) but the plans for high-speed rail are ridiculous - but they do have "vision"!TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, the language Boris uses, oh my
In policy terms he is best known for the “Boris island” plan to build a new hub airport in the Thames estuary. More cautious souls are leaning towards a second runway at Gatwick while some Tories, including the chancellor George Osborne, favour Heathrow expansion.
Johnson is withering about their lack of ambition. “For many people it’s too big,” he says. “They can’t get their heads around it. One minister who shall remain nameless — not a million miles away from the Treasury — said this is the sort of thing they do in China. I said, ‘But isn’t that the point?’” He talks about the need for “vision”.
He laughs at the suggestion that he is being rude about the chancellor — the man most likely to deprive him of the Tory crown. Turning to his press officer, he says: “Did you hear a rude comment? I don’t think so.”
At this point an airliner noisily circles overhead, prompting Johnson to point to the skies. “That bastard is going to go round and round and round. What they’ll say to you is, ‘We’ll put a third runway in and that problem will go away.’ Bollocks!”
He is also rude about high-speed rail, another Osborne project.
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"E.J. Hobsbawm, E. Gellner and the elder Anderson who assert nations and nationalism had no existence before 1789."
If they really want to assert that England was not a nation state until at least 1789, and given you have Hobsbawn is the list anything is possible, then I must raise the old English cry of "cobblers". England was settled as a nation state by the mid 14th century. The Peasants Revolt of 1381 was the last gasp of the old order.0 -
good as they are imoHarryHayfield said:This must be one of the few occasions that I have been first in one of my own postings (and there is a reason for this) and that is: As you know I have been tallying these local by-elections for a very long time and would like to know what I can do to improve them? At the moment I can only do simple text and colouring so at the moments graphics have to be pictures done from Powerpoint but if there is anything that you would like especially then please do say and I shall try my best to accommodate
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England was unusual for a long time.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2010/dec/06/medieval-britons-richer-than-modern-poor
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Just spoke to one of the guys who was at the Young UKIP conference and he told me that the Mail on Sundays story on Etheridge is a lie. So I wonder who planted the story? Give you one guess.0
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Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
They will rue the day ? More worryingly he still thinks he can win ?TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
Speedy Not true, a new Quinnipiac NJ poll has a +2 rating for Christie after all his recent problems. A Civitas poll last week had him leading Hillary in North Carolina, Paul was behind, and he is still at the top of most NH polls0
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They will literally rue the day.TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
1) He must think his performance on the currency during the debate was a winnerTGOHF said:
They will rue the day ? More worryingly he still thinks he can win ?TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg
2) In any future debates, it makes Darling's job so much easier0 -
This is great news for YesRobD said:
They will literally rue the day.TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
I'm not sure what exactly he's proposing an independent Scotland would do about itTheScreamingEagles said:
This is great news for YesRobD said:
They will literally rue the day.TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
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It's Scotland's pound, and they can force rump UK into a currency union, because it is the sovereign will of the Scottish peopleRobD said:
I'm not sure what exactly he's proposing an independent Scotland would do about itTheScreamingEagles said:
This is great news for YesRobD said:
They will literally rue the day.TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
and HM treasury have already guaranteed 100% of UK bonds, so a refusal by an independent Scotland to pay their share has already been priced in by the markets.0
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As his whole life's work begins to fall apart is Alex losing the plot?TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg
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possibly connected to the Kurds saying they've managed to open up a road to that mountain.AndyJS said:"US in new Iraq strikes on militants":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28729361
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/kurds-rescue-yazidis-from-iraq-mountain-201489135227783157.html
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The pound isn't his to keep is it?GIN1138 said:
As his whole life's work begins to fall apart is Alex losing the plot?TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Sutton @suttonnick 31s
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg0 -
Evening all. I've been a bit busy relaxing in the Med, but I see it's a quiet week.
As regards Boris, contrary to popular belief, his best chance of becoming PM is not a Cameron defeat and resignation in 2015. Instead, it's a combination of a Cameron victory in 2015 followed by Boris becoming the figurehead for a successful Out campaign in the EU referendum. This combination is, admittedly, a bit of a long shot, but it is his best shot.
However, making an enemy of Osborne is a blunder, probably a terminal one.0 -
A small point, but a telling one - Rory and Phil had bigger cheers than Tiger this week at the PGA.0
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But the Mail on Suday report includes a direct quote from Etheridge admitting he advised copying Hitler (and other people as well - Mussolini).TGOHF said:
IMF funded Lizards ? Jacque Delors ?MikeK said:Just spoke to one of the guys who was at the Young UKIP conference and he told me that the Mail on Sundays story on Etheridge is a lie. So I wonder who planted the story? Give you one guess.
Even worse he also mentioned Tony Blair.
Personally I think advising copying Hitler's style is a bit stupid.0 -
Iraq looks like its going to have a new PM.
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Speedy says - 'In April and May I correctly predicted that those attacks won't work.
UKIP won the euro's'
How is 73% vote for parties nominally wanting to stay in the EU a victory for a party that wants to come out of the EU in an election that is essentially a referendum on the EU?
I think that 'NO' will be more than happy for a 73% vote in the Scottish referendum.0
