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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Results: August 7th 2014
Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazing on Epping Forest (Con Defence)
Result: Conservatives 155 (50% -34%), UKIP 122 (40%), Green 23 (7% -3%), Liberal Democrats 7 (2% -4%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 33 (10%) on a swing of 37% from Conservative to UKIP
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I think we need to look at some means of tabulating the data.
I think emboldening the results could work well.
Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight.
@Charles
"Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight."
I am really not sure I can go along with that. This is much tied up with the idea of Nation and the development of the Nation State. I think that happened a lot earlier in England that it did in France. In fact I would suggest that England as a nation state had already occurred by the time Henry V came to the throne, but was not to happen in France for another few centuries (arguably until Bonaparte).
So in England, but probably less so in France, the peasants really did care who was on the top of the pile and, as you will know, the City of London certainly did.
Clearly another terrible night for the er Conservatives?
Didn't mean to imply they are mindless serfs, but more that their interaction with the local sheriff would have remained pretty much the same regardless of whether it was Henry or Henri on the throne. It just wasn't relevant to their day to day life, and I'm sure that there wouldn't have been any radical change in the system overnight.
I love the story of the Paston family which has been so well recorded in 14th and 15th century letters. From yeoman farmers to owners of Caister Castle in 3 generations and ultimately to the Earldom of Yarmouth and the royal family through marriage between the 2nd Earl and one of Charles II's illegitimate daughters. One of my cousins is descended from the early Pastons which rather suggests I probably am too. They went to great lengths to hide their 'humble' origins. Bettany Hughes devotes almost an entire programme to them in her Seven Ages of Britain series.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m
The July votes average for council by-elections CON 28.3% LAB 27.1% UKIP 24.2% LDEM 9.7% GRNS 4%
Next Saturday I'm do doing a gig at the Edinburgh Festival of Politics with John Curtice
I'm expecting some other IndyRef polling but I tend only to get advance info if YES is doing well.
In my defence
1) I didn't expect India to be so Ed Miliband crap
2) I've had an exceptionally good 2014 on the betting front, I was bound to get one wrong eventually
Labour fears brain drain with 15% of MPs ready to quit
Doubts about Ed Miliband's leadership are said to be driving an exodus in the runup to next year's general election
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/09/labour-fears-brain-drain-mps-quit
Will you be doing something similar for the actual GE2015; or is this too much to ask?
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 2h
Rachel Reeves has moved ahead of Yvette Cooper in the race to be next Labour leader > Sunday Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/lyvlyuy
Ouch.
I've used the wolves, sheep and high students metaphor a few times, but Labour's sheep really need to get a bit more proactive. Line up behind Miliband, or axe him properly. Same as with Brown.
It's too late to axe him now, so they may as well line up behind him.
Labour are as stuck with Ed now as the SNP are with Salmond. It is just too late to change things and frankly the alternatives are far from dazzling.
But there was a huge clearout of labour MPs in the last Parliament, not only from lost seats but also retirements. Another heavy wave of retirements is surprising but presumably this is related to the huge influx of the class of 97 reaching retirement.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bun-BUEIUAEOFLD.jpg
I agree the later series weren't as good.
Mr. Eagles, Warsi's behaviour is rather discourteous to colleagues and, perhaps more importantly, does make her resignation look less about Gaza than she claims. Maybe she's retiring from politics to write a book about the dangers of militant atheism.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 53s
Warsi says Lib Dems are "disingenuous" over calls for arms embargo on Israel. She was "lone voice" calling for it in key meetings
Betfair told me to nick off re Legia Warsaw being ejected...
Oh and - lol
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
THE MAIL ON SUNDAY FRONT PAGE: "UKIP tells its youth wing: copy Hitler" #skypapers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoBZU3CAAAiTFW.jpg
Mail front page..
I'm worried about the next test, possibility of no Broad, Jordan and Woakes do not inspire.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoDdFgIMAAth-W.jpg
It didn't work 3 months ago either.
Christie is the most unpopular republican even inside his own party.
Even if you disregard his problems with the law his record as governor stinks, New Jersey is close to bankruptcy and Christie cant pay its pensions.
In poll after poll Christie is close to the bottom in popularity in state polls and nationwide, voters hate him.
Borismania hits Britain as he opens up huge lead over Tory leadership rivals in @TheSunNewspaper poll tomorrow.
UKIP won the euro's after a 4 month campaign by the media that portrayed them as racist fascist sexist nazis and people still voted for them.
There are people who are prepared to vote tactically to stop a UKIP candidate. That is who this sort of story is aimed at.
And it will resonate.
You might not want to believe it - but it will.
Sunday Times YouGov poll shows Boris streets ahead for next Tory leader: 30% for Boris, Theresa May 16%, George Osborne on just 7%.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 1m
Amongst Tory voters Boris Johnson leads Theresa May by 41% to 15% as next Tory leader in YouGov poll for Sunday Times
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1m
Boris has some way to go to convince voters he is ready. 36% say he's would be up to the job of prime Mminister, 43% say he would not.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Travel/Pix/pictures/2014/8/9/1407586615078/David-Miliband-in-Times-S-011.jpg
I mean, look at that picture and try to say he doesn't look as awkward and weird as any pic of Ed.
Using Newark as an attack on UKIP simply shows your ignorance of the constituency
In policy terms he is best known for the “Boris island” plan to build a new hub airport in the Thames estuary. More cautious souls are leaning towards a second runway at Gatwick while some Tories, including the chancellor George Osborne, favour Heathrow expansion.
Johnson is withering about their lack of ambition. “For many people it’s too big,” he says. “They can’t get their heads around it. One minister who shall remain nameless — not a million miles away from the Treasury — said this is the sort of thing they do in China. I said, ‘But isn’t that the point?’” He talks about the need for “vision”.
He laughs at the suggestion that he is being rude about the chancellor — the man most likely to deprive him of the Tory crown. Turning to his press officer, he says: “Did you hear a rude comment? I don’t think so.”
At this point an airliner noisily circles overhead, prompting Johnson to point to the skies. “That bastard is going to go round and round and round. What they’ll say to you is, ‘We’ll put a third runway in and that problem will go away.’ Bollocks!”
He is also rude about high-speed rail, another Osborne project.
Bill Etheridge told Ukip youth conference members to emulate Nazi leader
Lauded Hitler as 'the most magnetic and forceful public speaker in history'
Comes after the West Midlands MEP published a book celebrating golliwogs
Ministers blast speech as 'unbelievable' and call on Farage to respond
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720860/Hitler-achieved-great-deal-Ukip-MEP-sparks-anger-tells-youth-wing-copy-Nazi-leader.html
The guy who proof read Hitler's Mein Kampf, was literally a Grammar Nazi.
If they really want to assert that England was not a nation state until at least 1789, and given you have Hobsbawn is the list anything is possible, then I must raise the old English cry of "cobblers". England was settled as a nation state by the mid 14th century. The Peasants Revolt of 1381 was the last gasp of the old order.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2010/dec/06/medieval-britons-richer-than-modern-poor
Depends how that wealth was distributed?
Sunday Herald - "Salmond: Unionist parties will pay heavy price for kamikaze currency veto" #tomorrowspaperstoday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BuoUexSIUAMlhoi.jpg
2) In any future debates, it makes Darling's job so much easier
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28729361
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/kurds-rescue-yazidis-from-iraq-mountain-201489135227783157.html
As regards Boris, contrary to popular belief, his best chance of becoming PM is not a Cameron defeat and resignation in 2015. Instead, it's a combination of a Cameron victory in 2015 followed by Boris becoming the figurehead for a successful Out campaign in the EU referendum. This combination is, admittedly, a bit of a long shot, but it is his best shot.
However, making an enemy of Osborne is a blunder, probably a terminal one.
Even worse he also mentioned Tony Blair.
Personally I think advising copying Hitler's style is a bit stupid.
UKIP won the euro's'
How is 73% vote for parties nominally wanting to stay in the EU a victory for a party that wants to come out of the EU in an election that is essentially a referendum on the EU?
I think that 'NO' will be more than happy for a 73% vote in the Scottish referendum.