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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll
A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a big post-TV debate reversal for YES. Fieldwork was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday.
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Debate: Darling emerges as clear winner - 53% who watched say Darling 28% Salmond.
http://vaughtsviews.com/guest-post-rory-mcilroy-gave-young-fan-a-lasting-memory-at-louisvile-thorntons/
Timothy Campbell is a Kentucky fan but Thursday in Louisville he had a memorable experience connected with the PGA Championship that I think anyone can enjoy. It also gives a glimpse of a side of Rory McIlroy, the world’s top-ranked golfer, that we seldom see. Enjoy Campbell’s story.
Could it be?
This is clearly a rigged poll filled with unionist propaganda because my canvasing of my street shows a 201% swing to the YES campaign. Survation is rigged to the Westminster paymasters! NOT ONLY THAT, it is in the margin of error and the weighting system that has been developed for years specifically for this question is bias because of Westminster paymasters.
Vote Yes for attacks from space aliens and stuff.
Once again - as a PB Scot - I feel it is my duty to comment - and this time with a superlative (internet style) (apologies if it's passé for some people)
BOOM GOES THE DYNAMINTE
But I have to bite - what is T in the park?
But even on reflection, he wasn't that bad overall, it was just the way he handled the currency question. So, so bad.
So i've had a bottle of wine and am now listening to Mastodon's new album. It cheers me up.
Jakeys are like Glaswegian Chavs with added knives (and skag).
I've been a few times. Last time was about 10 years ago (The Darkness headlined), I went straight to work from Balado on the Monday - yeah I smelled.
Darling wasn't particularly good, so why give Salmond any way back?
But even on reflection, he wasn't that bad overall, it was just the way he handled the currency question. So, so bad.
Let me preface this by saying that I'm in the US so coverage of Scottish independence is not exactly blanket, but it isn't just the currency. On question after financial question there is no absolute answer, so that effectively you are voting for independence without knowing exactly what it would entail.
It's almost as if you vote for independence and then negotiate the deal. That's unwise at best.
reminds me of a German court spokesman
http://www.firstpost.com/topic/person/uli-hoene-andrea-titz-c-spokeswoman-of-the-regional-court-image-0bAQdDH31P2eA-68272-7.html
I know this.
There are so many things that are only going to be agreed after a yes vote, and so many things that are up in the air that nobody really knows what it would entail.
Is it unwise? Not necessarily. I think Scotland has plenty of sound foundations from a social, economic and structural/political footing to see that we can shape an independent nation.
As the song I'm currently listening to says: Hey ho, Let's fu*king Go!
My guess would be that Salmond et al dliberately left it vague - the currency for example - because if it was known you couldn't use the pound and how much debt you'd assume it would make the vote less about the emotional idea of Scottish independence and more about the rational evaluation of the financial cost involved in doing so.
I know Biffy Clyro and The Red Hot Chilli Pipers perform regularly, but this isn't enough to label it Scottish music ;-)
One thing is certain, there will be a period on relative instability, and likely as not some people will lose out financially.
Only a fool would say otherwise.
But building a nation is a loftier goal than lining one's own pockets.
Yes, one more glass of vino tinto to cebrelate
There's whole columns in newspapers (I won't name one specifically but I get the impression that more than one hates me) about this kind of bullshit - and I think you're wrong.
Anyway, I'm sure you were being playful
Night all.
Congrats on post 400 :-)
But I've been o may festivals in Scotland (Titp, Loopallu, Belladrum, Wicker Man etc), and titp is the most generic of the lot.
That said, I'm more of a metal fan anyway and Download/Bloodstock is my bag. I would be at Bloodstock this weekend if it weren't for the fact that my wife gave birth recently. Had to sell my Download tickets for the same reason.
In fact, it is the same reason that compels me to bed too..
Goodnight all.
Neither side will dare admit that, though.
Which is why I find the Scottish independence campaign pretty ridiculous and the whole issue quite boring.
Odds against is value
Nixon resigned 40 years ago tonight, full speech below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLHc8NR_v-8&sns=em
Night!
By the way, China Daily has a whimsical piece today on the spoof Twitter account (by a journalist) @Dick_Nixon, which does sound very accurate and funny. Samples: "Hillary is cold, cold, tough as hell. That's the good side." "The ecology thing is crap for clowns. But there's votes in it." "Have you been to Tampa? My God. Nothing but Cubans and houses of prostitution."
(if "no") Neither had I until today...
"Here is a Western nightmare fulfilled: just as the United States and allies disengage from Afghanistan and Iraq, having failed to secure either stability or democracy, President Barack Obama is obliged to start a new campaign against militant Islam..
It is highly likely that Washington will also feel obliged to arm the Kurds of eastern Iraq, as well as mount a huge humanitarian relief effort in which Britain and other allies will participate.....
The West has done everything possible to hasten the fall of Assad, just as its forces previously overthrew Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Libya’s President Gaddafi. .
But their brutal regimes did provide stability, and that is what the Western Powers have willed away. America and its allies have miserably failed to provide any credible substitute for the fallen dictators..
But we can now see that, wherever Assad loses control, he is supplanted not by moderate democrats, but by extremist jihadis, shooting and beheading as they go.
Thus the huge problem for the West is that, while attempting to repel the Islamic State, it cannot identify any other local faction to champion, except the Kurds who suffered years of persecution.
Indeed, the West should urgently give the Kurds the means to defend themselves. Otherwise, the least bad option is the one Obama has chosen: hit the extremists hard and fast with air power..
The fact is that Western follies since 2001 have contributed mightily to unleashing forces we cannot control, demented hordes who are killing more people than the dictators did.
These are worrying times for those fearful of a descent into a historic confrontation with militant Islam.
Although the jihadis in Iraq are killing Muslims as well as Christians, multiple stress points around the world - Gaza not least among them - intensify the danger that we shall eventually find ourselves going head-to-head with a vast religious grouping..
Professor Sir Michael Howard, Britain’s most distinguished historian and strategist, now 92, lamented to me last month the tottering, if not collapse, of every pillar that has supported international order through his lifetime. By that he means the UN, Nato and a strong America.
But if the West claims to represent the values of civilisation, we cannot stand by and spectate while a few thousand Islamic fanatics slaughter innocent people at will..
The future looks uncertain and bleak. The peoples of all the Western nations may wish that we were led by stronger and better statesmen, when hard and bitter decisions must be made."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2720403/
There is one further problem, in that if the West arms the Kurds, they could anger countries such as Turkey who do not wish to lose territory in order to re-establish a Kurdish state and the West does not want Turkey to become more isolationist and militant Islamic.
Turkey historically didn't want the Kurds armed, but they sure as heck prefer them to ISIS - Turkey has been helping the Kurds in Syria and Iraq for a while already...
"Has the debate changed the way you intend to vote in the Referendum?"
NO change: 65%
More likely to vote YES: 13%
More likely to vote NO: 22%
"Do you believe the Scottish Government should draw up alternative options to a 'currency union' ahead of the referendum?"
YES: 69%
NO: 13%
DK: 18%
1010 people polled.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdIEm1s6yhY
"Asked to pick adjectives to describe the SNP leader's performance in the pivotal STV debate last Tuesday – which was watched by 1.7million people – the most popular choices were 'weak', 'uninformed' and 'dishonest'.
His opponent, former Chancellor Mr Darling who is spearheading the Better Together campaign, was described as 'knowledgeable' and 'strong'."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2720332/
Looks like our bankers will be asking to leave the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/11022899/Brussels-plots-fresh-City-of-London-power-grab.html
1. For Scotland to become independent under international law there has to be a negotiated separation.
2. The rUK is Scotland's biggest trading partner by far.
3. To get to mainland Europe in the most cost-effective way, any number of Scottish products currently pass through England.
4. The Scottish financial services industry needs an internationally credible lender of last resort, as does anyone who holds savings or a pension with such a Scottish financial institution.
5. The rUK will remain a G8 economy with a population of 60 million or so. Scotland will not be a G8 country and will be a very small market.
6. The rUK will have full control of its northern borders.
Does the SNP leadership not understand that these facts will give the rUK a few levers if the Scottish position is to say no to taking its share of the debt? Or is this a case - yet again - of Project Fib taking the Scots for fools in the knowledge that once a Yes is achieved everything that was stated and claimed to get it can be consigned to the rubbish bin?
If Panelbase shows something similar then Yes will be very disappointed.
Balls isn't even the best politician in his own house.
Ed Balls Seen As More Capable Than George Osborne, Poll Finds
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/3428797
Dec 2013
George Osborne takes lead over Ed Balls as most capable Chancellor
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3314/George-Osborne-takes-lead-over-Ed-Balls-as-most-capable-Chancellor.aspx
Since then the Osborne lead has been maintained or widened.
I told malcolmg that Darling would beat Salmond in the debate. His reply "cuckoo,cuckoo".
malcolmg, you owe me an apology, today.
It is criminal blindness.
For those who seem to have the memory of a snail, the PKK waged a terrorist war in Turkey as recently as 2011, with a wave of bombings and shootings that killed tens of thousands on both sides. A ceasefire was brokered in 2013, if only because the PKK wanted their fighters in Syria (and now Iraq), where they were most needed.
Turkey's playing a very careful game in what are, for them, dangerous waters. There is reportedly serious help coming from within Turkey to the Islamic extremist groups, and you can be darned sure that the Kurdish groups they are helping are 'their' Kurdish groups, and not necessarily the ones the west would end up supporting.
Add in the massive refugee problem on Turkey's southern borders (which Turkey is dealing with admirably), the increasing Islamification of the government, and the secular demonstrations, and you have an absolute powder keg.
The claim that arms given to the FSA would somehow have got to the Islamic fundamentalists is one view. Another is that the help might have allowed the FSA to rapidly beat Assad's regime and turn their attention to the fundamentalists. Not doing so allowed many of the Islamic militants crossed over to Iraq, leaving the FSA under pressure from both them and Assad's regime.
Helping (and even arming) the FSA might well have kept the pressure on the fundamentalists and stopped the spread of the conflict into Iraq.
If you believed the FSA should not have been armed, then the same holds true for the Kurds with spades on: how will you make sure that the arms do not get into the hands of the PKK? Or are they suddenly 'nice' terrorists?
And in the meantime, the use of chemical weapons on civilian population by Assad has gone unpunished. It was bad enough after Halabja; we should not have turned our backs a second time.
(BTW, I have some sympathy with the Kurdish people. It's just that arming them might not be the best for the population or region in the short, mid or long term. I also have to be slightly careful of what I say). :-(
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/08/syria-kurd-pyd-asayish-isis-turkey-islamic-state.html#
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Workers'_Party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish–Turkish_conflict
You state that Scotland will walk away from her share of UK debts if you cannot share Westminster's (for the BoE is a nationalised company) Pound Sterling. Given the propensity of the public-sector in Scotland, and that these staff have pensions that are only funded from future taxes, do you think such a policy has been thought through? Or do you assume that the English taxpayer should continue to pay for them regardless...?
Anecdotally, many of my friends, who are mainly no supporters, were apprehensive about the debate whilst the few that support yes were genuinely hopeful that this might be a breakthrough moment for them. This was partly because of Salmond's reputation and what happened to Iain Gray in 2011 which bordered on the embarrassing and played a large part in Salmond's victory.
The reactions of yes supporters were therefore mainly relief and not a little surprise. I have only spoken to a couple of yes supporters. They were unwavering in their position but conceded that Salmond did not have a good night.
What I must concede to be light on in my groups of friends are people who don't really know. Almost everyone I spoke to made up their minds over a year ago and nothing said or done in the debate was likely to change things. The media spin (which was in my view somewhat over the top) combined with polls like this is likely to be bad news for yes in this group.
It is "the sovereign will of the Scottish people" that;
- the taxpayers of fUK will provide a lender of last resort
- the EU will grant full admission with all existing opt outs
- NATO will provide military cover
Job done
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Scottish Banks may move their headquarters to London because they would be too much at risk if still HQ'd in Edinburgh. I think RBS has already signalled that they may have to do this.
Scotland would have to take their share of the debt. If they did not do this, there is no way that the EU would allow them to become members.
If Scotland did eventually become members of the EU, they would have to accept the EURO, as this is currently a requirement for new members.
I just can't see that the YES campaign will be able to answer the questions that would satisfy most people.
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Ha Ha Ha ,, the Daily Heil, only a cretin like you could come up with that
If the airport has not been "over-spec'ed" can you explain why the airport designs were changed in October 2013 (mid construction) so that it was capable of handling Lockhead C-130 Hercules.
Additionally, it's about 800 miles further south than Wideawake, increasing the effective range of airborne maritime patrols
But do tell me: how would I vote?