2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council – politicalbetting.com
2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council – politicalbetting.com
Morning Consult/Politico poll today:Do you believe the U.S. should still withdraw its military presence in Afghanistan if it means it creates an opening for Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups to establish operations in Afghanistan?45% — still withdraw40% — don’t withdraw
Comments
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First0
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Good old Samuel!1
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Morning Consult has gone both ways on this, their 16th August poll had 48% saying the US should not withdraw from Afghanistan if it created an opening for Al Qaeda and other groups and 35% saying they should.
However in both cases there was a clear partisan divide, 62% of Republicans in the 16th August poll opposed withdrawal if it let Al Qaeda back in while Democrats by 44% to 36% still supported it.
In the 25th August poll 59% of Democrats still supported the withdrawal even if it led to the return of Al Qaeda and terrorist groups to only 32% of Republicans who would still support the withdrawal
https://morningconsult.com/2021/08/16/afghanistan-withdrawal-taliban-polling/
https://morningconsult.com/2021/08/25/afghanistan-withdrawal-relocation-poll/0 -
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention0 -
Greens now on 9% and ahead of the LDs on 8% and Tories 8% ahead of LabourBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
I have to celebrate the BPC, baby
I have to praise it like I should.0 -
Does it?
‘Therefore I will give thanks unto thee, O Lord, among the heathen, and I will sing praises unto thy name.’
Do you perhaps mean 15?
‘And he sent out arrows, and scattered them; lightning, and discomfited them.’0 -
Meaghan Kall
@kallmemeg
·
1h
Sparkles Festival Watch Sparkles
Today is about when we’d expect to start seeing a ‘festival effect’ - if there is one - from BH weekend events:
• Creamfields
• Reading
• Leeds
• Victorious
• All Points East
• Manchester Pride0 -
@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.1 -
Replace Lord with BPC and it makes sense.ydoethur said:Does it?
‘Therefore I will give thanks unto thee, O Lord, among the heathen, and I will sing praises unto thy name.’
Do you perhaps mean 15?
‘And he sent out arrows, and scattered them; lightning, and discomfited them.’0 -
That question has got my blood RIGHT up. Impeach cowardy custard Biden!0
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Ah, now I am with you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Replace Lord with BPC and it makes sense.ydoethur said:Does it?
‘Therefore I will give thanks unto thee, O Lord, among the heathen, and I will sing praises unto thy name.’
Do you perhaps mean 15?
‘And he sent out arrows, and scattered them; lightning, and discomfited them.’0 -
• Aberdeenrottenborough said:Meaghan Kall
@kallmemeg
·
1h
Sparkles Festival Watch Sparkles
Today is about when we’d expect to start seeing a ‘festival effect’ - if there is one - from BH weekend events:
• Creamfields
• Reading
• Leeds
• Victorious
• All Points East
• Manchester Pride2 -
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention0 -
It is rather out of line with the polling averages, mind:Andy_JS said:
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Paul Mainwood
@PaulMainwood
·
10m
A UK vaccine supply update.
If you can't be bothered with a thread, then TL;DR:
There's plenty of doses. There's plenty of mRNA doses. There may be very good reasons not to offer teenage vaccination, or to start a >50s booster programme, but they are not supply-based.0 -
Maybe maybe not, the fact was it was still the religious bodies who provided the funds so a lot of those artists and sculptors architects and builders could afford to paint and produce the great buildings and artwork of the time. Hence the Vatican has probably the greatest collection of art in the world.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
As well of course as most of the earliest universities and seats of learning and schools and many of the early hospitals being founded by religions too1 -
…
The Exodus of the CorbynitesAndy_JS said:
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
Exodus 3:7
“I have observed the misery of my people who are in Labour,” Jez's voice called out to him (Exodus 3:7). Jez then charged Johnny Mc to lead the Corbynites out of bondage and bring them to the Promised Land. He also told him to use his brother Piers as his spokesman, because “he can speak fluent gibberish”1 -
It was hardly worth the effort.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention1 -
Ben Wallace & Dominic Raab:
Aug 27: Wallace criticises FCDO staff who left identifying docs at Kabul embassy
Aug 31: Raab criticises ‘military’ intel failings
Sept 1: Wallace contradicts Raab, says he thought ‘game was up’ in July
Sept 2: Raab says he & Wallace had same intel
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1433458282631516164
I am on Raab @ 25/1, and Wallace @ 16/10 -
Actually, i think the Morning Consult question is OK provided people quote it in full. It's a probing question: even if all this bad stuff happens, is it still worth it? To which the answer is yes, thus demonstrating a strong American commitment to get out of Afghanistan.
There may be a quibble if not all Americans may think an Al Qaeda attack is particularly likely0 -
Labour and the LDs clearly now below 2019 levels, so while a few Tories have gone to Labour or the LDs and RefUK as the Tories are now on 39%, even more 2019 Labour voters have gone to the Greens.isam said:…
The Exodus of the CorbynitesAndy_JS said:
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
So literally one could now say 'Vote Green, Go Blue!' under UK FPTP2 -
I thought Wallace had a decent withdrawal, he even cried in the right places, whereas Raab had an absolute mare.Scott_xP said:Ben Wallace & Dominic Raab:
Aug 27: Wallace criticises FCDO staff who left identifying docs at Kabul embassy
Aug 31: Raab criticises ‘military’ intel failings
Sept 1: Wallace contradicts Raab, says he thought ‘game was up’ in July
Sept 2: Raab says he & Wallace had same intel
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1433458282631516164
I am on Raab @ 25/1, and Wallace @ 16/11 -
India 1910
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What's shocking about the first question is that even with such an unfavourable framing people were still in favour of withdrawal.2
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The Greens will probably get a lot of votes for not many seats, (if this poll were a GE) so shouldnt be added to Labours score via Electoral Calculus or whateverHYUFD said:
Labour and the LDs clearly now below 2019 levels, so while a few Tories have gone to Labour or the LDs and RefUK as the Tories are now on 39%, even more 2019 Labour voters have gone to the Greens.isam said:…
The Exodus of the CorbynitesAndy_JS said:
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
So literally one could now say 'Vote Green, Go Blue!' under UK FPTP1 -
The Southern GOP surge:
Eric Topol
@EricTopol
·
2h
3 Southern states are newly leading the US pandemic and currently have more new cases/100,000 people than any country of the world0 -
I don't care about any of this, I'm just fidgeting and killing time until the ABBA announcement.5
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The BPC would be more likely to go all Ezekiel 25:17 on such nonsense.ydoethur said:Does it?
‘Therefore I will give thanks unto thee, O Lord, among the heathen, and I will sing praises unto thy name.’
Do you perhaps mean 15?
‘And he sent out arrows, and scattered them; lightning, and discomfited them.’
KJV, or Tarantino.1 -
Intel is only as good as those who interpret it.Scott_xP said:Ben Wallace & Dominic Raab:
Aug 27: Wallace criticises FCDO staff who left identifying docs at Kabul embassy
Aug 31: Raab criticises ‘military’ intel failings
Sept 1: Wallace contradicts Raab, says he thought ‘game was up’ in July
Sept 2: Raab says he & Wallace had same intel
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1433458282631516164
I am on Raab @ 25/1, and Wallace @ 16/1
South Korean sources had great intel on Kim's preparations to invade in 1950. MacArthur's intelligence chief discounted its value.0 -
Greens about to replace Lib-Dems as Britain's third party?Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention0 -
A UK vaccine supply update.
If you can't be bothered with a thread, then TL;DR:
There's plenty of doses. There's plenty of mRNA doses. There may be very good reasons not to offer teenage vaccination, or to start a >50s booster programme, but they are not supply-based.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1433455570271473671?s=201 -
Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet0 -
RomanianCanadianBritish tennis sensation Raducanu already a break up in the tennis.0 -
However given a majority of Republicans in the poll oppose not only the withdrawal if AQ attack again but the withdrawal outright then if the Republicans win the Presidency in 2024 as well as Congress next year then the US should shift in a more interventionist and neocon direction again than it currently is under Biden-Harris and with the Democrats in control of CongressFF43 said:Actually, i think the Morning Consult question is OK provided people quote it in full. It's a probing question: even if all this bad stuff happens, is it still worth it? To which the answer is yes, thus demonstrating a strong American commitment to get out of Afghanistan.
There may be a quibble if not all Americans may think an Al Qaeda attack is particularly likely0 -
And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.0
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https://twitter.com/OsitaNwanevu/status/1433444218291228672?s=19
This is a beautifully crafted tweet that many people are misunderstanding.0 -
In some ways it's a surprise that the Greens aren't doing considerably better than they are. Labour and the Greens are both centred on the leadership, support and interests of the same class of left-leaning metropolitan. The main difference between the two is that Labour, under current management, are blander and less radical.GIN1138 said:
Greens about to replace Lib-Dems as Britain's third party?Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention1 -
What was the Bolton Boycott trying there....trying a ODI shot over the slips.0
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Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet0 -
You've put the whatsits on it. 6-2 now.FrancisUrquhart said:And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.
0 -
Well one thing is for certain is that Soder's CSU will still win Bavaria comfortably, indeed on that poll Bavaria could be the only region of Germany where the Union still win most votes and most seats.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
This will be the CDU and Laschet's defeat0 -
That was a true WTAF shot in the circumstances.FrancisUrquhart said:What was the Bolton Boycott trying there....trying a ODI shot over the slips.
0 -
DoommongerFrancisUrquhart said:And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.
0 -
England or the NFT market?squareroot2 said:
DoommongerFrancisUrquhart said:And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.
0 -
I expect Labour will be saying exactly that! And it'll be true.HYUFD said:
Labour and the LDs clearly now below 2019 levels, so while a few Tories have gone to Labour or the LDs and RefUK as the Tories are now on 39%, even more 2019 Labour voters have gone to the Greens.isam said:…
The Exodus of the CorbynitesAndy_JS said:
Interesting to see the Greens above the LDs.Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
So literally one could now say 'Vote Green, Go Blue!' under UK FPTP
In practice, pace isam, I'd expect about half the Green vote to go Labour in marginals, not least as the Greens won't stand everywhere. But I do see them potentially moving into 3rd place, since they stand for some widely-recognised distinctive things (Corbynism plus added greenery), unlike, well, almost anyone else at the moment. They need to avoid disappearing down the trans feud rabbithole, though.1 -
AIUI the German constitution forbids secession. Canada and the UK are exceptions rather than the norm when it comes to the willingness to contemplate torching themselves.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet0 -
I am not familiar with the latter...FrancisUrquhart said:
England or the NFT market?squareroot2 said:
DoommongerFrancisUrquhart said:And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.
0 -
On topic, what's the purpose of shove-you-down-the-stairs questions like that in the Rasmussen poll? In the good old days you'd just be laughed at cos you're so transparently desperate to fix the answer, but is it more important now to give your social media foot soldiers something to crow about? Of course some of the more..er..naive may think this is a reasonable question which gives a clear snapshot of where the US voter is right now.0
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There is a Bavarian independence party however and the Spanish constitution did not stop the Catalan Nationalists pushing for independence, the Catalan government even declared UDI in 2017pigeon said:
AIUI the German constitution forbids secession. Canada and the UK are exceptions rather than the norm when it comes to the willingness to contemplate torching themselves.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavaria_Party0 -
A vegan milk substitute which might actually be worth trying.
https://www.popsci.com/environment/vegan-milk-ice-cream-tastes-real/
...The California startup skips the udder by adding cow DNA to a prolific strain of a fungus called Trichoderma reesei. Give those modified microbes a little sugar and a stint in a fermentation chamber and they churn out a mixture of dairy proteins, including casein and whey, that are molecularly identical to those that give products made with regular old moo juice their wonderful consistency. From there it’s simply a matter of adding a bit of water and some plant-based fats to create creamy goodness that requires no animals at all.
Perfect Day’s research found that its process generates 85 to 97 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than conventional dairy production. It also doesn’t use any of the hormones or antibiotics (or, for that matter, land) needed to keep that immense livestock machine running. You won’t find any lactose or cholesterol, either....0 -
Verboten? I seem to recall an interminable debate about that here.pigeon said:
AIUI the German constitution forbids secession. Canada and the UK are exceptions rather than the norm when it comes to the willingness to contemplate torching themselves.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet0 -
Not as bad as poor Ben Sanderson, chased a ball all the way to the rope only to trip over it, ends up on his arse *and* kicked it over the rope for four.FrancisUrquhart said:What was the Bolton Boycott trying there....trying a ODI shot over the slips.
You’ve got to feel sorry for Northants. They’ve been much the better side for three and a half days and Miles Hammond and Tom Lace have somehow stolen the match from them on the last afternoon.0 -
For all the good that it did them, as you sometimes like to remind us when another argument about certain northerly parts erupts.HYUFD said:
There is a Bavarian independence party however and the Spanish constitution did not stop the Catalan Nationalists pushing for independence, the Catalan government even declared UDI in 2017pigeon said:
AIUI the German constitution forbids secession. Canada and the UK are exceptions rather than the norm when it comes to the willingness to contemplate torching themselves.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavaria_Party0 -
Well, it would be logical. In most other Western democracies, the Greens are the third party.GIN1138 said:
Greens about to replace Lib-Dems as Britain's third party?Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention
That being said, FPTP makes it really hard for parties to break through. How do they convince people (and their supporters tend to be well educated and capable of understanding technical ) that their votes are not wasted?
And it's a chicken and egg issue: they don't get the local votes, and therefore they don't get seen as a challenger, and therefore they don't get the local votes.
I think they need (a) a really charismatic leader, and (b) to have popular policies that allow them to be differentiated from the other parties (particularly the Left wing ones).
Right now, I'm not sure they have either.2 -
People are currently paying $1000 for a lottery ticket to buy 1 of 10,000 art collection (the actual art then costs another $500+), where they don't know which bit of art they are getting....then trying to flip it for $100k's, even $ millions, and people are buying them...squareroot2 said:
I am not familiar with the latter...FrancisUrquhart said:
England or the NFT market?squareroot2 said:
DoommongerFrancisUrquhart said:And so starts the England collapse....just like the NFT market.
I believe the NFT of my avatar is worth $150k...0 -
Yes it's quite possible that the CDU doesn't top the poll anywhere. The CSU will probably still win Bavaria with a very low vote share of just over 30%. I can see the Greens topping the poll in Baden Würtemberg. AfD in Saxony and potentially SPD everywhere else.HYUFD said:
Well one thing is for certain is that Soder's CSU will still win Bavaria comfortably, indeed on that poll Bavaria could be the only region of Germany where the Union still win most votes and most seats.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
This will be the CDU and Laschet's defeat
1 -
There are two parts to this - the decision itself and the impact on Biden's brand / image, related to how he compares with Trump.
On the first part, I'd agree re Biden not taking a political hit. The US people generally want out of Afghanistan so it's a popular decision.
The problem for Biden comes with the second part. Three of his key election brand platforms were competence, compassion and decency. I'd argue the way the withdrawal was done has seriously damaged the first but maybe not permanently. However, he will definitely take a permanent hit on the other two (anyone who says Biden is compassionate will get laughed at given his "that was four or five days ago" comment).
All these three points were supposed to be differentiators with Trump. If you are going to pitch Biden as an hard ass, American first President, why not go for the real thing. That is another issue.
Finally, people had issues with Biden pre-Afghanistan - questions over his mental capabilities, the rise of inflation etc. What has happened only builds on these.2 -
This is where it's difficult to disaggregate the policy - exiting Afghanistan, which most Americans support and where Biden is implementing a process already started by Trump- from a perception that it could have been handled better and where Biden is blamed. Unless something changes I don't see a Republican president being more interventionist.HYUFD said:
However given a majority of Republicans in the poll oppose not only the withdrawal if AQ attack again but the withdrawal outright then if the Republicans win the Presidency in 2024 as well as Congress next year then the US should shift in a more interventionist and neocon direction again than it currently is under Biden-Harris and with the Democrats in control of CongressFF43 said:Actually, i think the Morning Consult question is OK provided people quote it in full. It's a probing question: even if all this bad stuff happens, is it still worth it? To which the answer is yes, thus demonstrating a strong American commitment to get out of Afghanistan.
There may be a quibble if not all Americans may think an Al Qaeda attack is particularly likely0 -
So... 22 million mRNA doses in stock in the UK. Plus, presumably, a decent number of AZ doses too.FrancisUrquhart said:A UK vaccine supply update.
If you can't be bothered with a thread, then TL;DR:
There's plenty of doses. There's plenty of mRNA doses. There may be very good reasons not to offer teenage vaccination, or to start a >50s booster programme, but they are not supply-based.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1433455570271473671?s=200 -
Yes but remember something something, doing third doses will cause vaccine hesitancy....something something...we can't do kids as well as oldies...something something...BS BS BS....rcs1000 said:
So... 22 million mRNA doses in stock in the UK. Plus, presumably, a decent number of AZ doses too.FrancisUrquhart said:A UK vaccine supply update.
If you can't be bothered with a thread, then TL;DR:
There's plenty of doses. There's plenty of mRNA doses. There may be very good reasons not to offer teenage vaccination, or to start a >50s booster programme, but they are not supply-based.
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1433455570271473671?s=200 -
Hoping this new Abba music is good. They were true masters at their craft1
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A Republican President like Romney or Haley would certainly be more interventionist.FF43 said:
This is where it's difficult to disaggregate the policy - exiting Afghanistan, which most Americans support and where Biden is implementing a process already started by Trump- from a perception that it could have been handled better and where Biden is blamed. Unless something changes I don't see a Republican president being more interventionist.HYUFD said:
However given a majority of Republicans in the poll oppose not only the withdrawal if AQ attack again but the withdrawal outright then if the Republicans win the Presidency in 2024 as well as Congress next year then the US should shift in a more interventionist and neocon direction again than it currently is under Biden-Harris and with the Democrats in control of CongressFF43 said:Actually, i think the Morning Consult question is OK provided people quote it in full. It's a probing question: even if all this bad stuff happens, is it still worth it? To which the answer is yes, thus demonstrating a strong American commitment to get out of Afghanistan.
There may be a quibble if not all Americans may think an Al Qaeda attack is particularly likely
Short of that though yes unless there is another terrorist attack on US soil planned in the Middle East or Afghanistan or North Africa then it is unlikely any administration for the foreseeable future will be significantly different from Biden's on foreign policy0 -
Neither would succeed of course but then neither would an attempt in Scotland succeed either if the UK government opposed itpigeon said:
For all the good that it did them, as you sometimes like to remind us when another argument about certain northerly parts erupts.HYUFD said:
There is a Bavarian independence party however and the Spanish constitution did not stop the Catalan Nationalists pushing for independence, the Catalan government even declared UDI in 2017pigeon said:
AIUI the German constitution forbids secession. Canada and the UK are exceptions rather than the norm when it comes to the willingness to contemplate torching themselves.OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavaria_Party0 -
Raducanu set up and break up...0
-
OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
This is according to one pollster. Yes ,their claimed 7.5% SPD lead is large.
But look at the distribution - I don't think it's the CSU letting the side down*
(*don't overthink it)1 -
Agree with you on the compassion and decency point, but I would think on the mental faculties issue, Biden comes out of this being extremely hard-headed, Cynical actuallyMrEd said:There are two parts to this - the decision itself and the impact on Biden's brand / image, related to how he compares with Trump.
On the first part, I'd agree re Biden not taking a political hit. The US people generally want out of Afghanistan so it's a popular decision.
The problem for Biden comes with the second part. Three of his key election brand platforms were competence, compassion and decency. I'd argue the way the withdrawal was done has seriously damaged the first but maybe not permanently. However, he will definitely take a permanent hit on the other two (anyone who says Biden is compassionate will get laughed at given his "that was four or five days ago" comment).
All these three points were supposed to be differentiators with Trump. If you are going to pitch Biden as an hard ass, American first President, why not go for the real thing. That is another issue.
Finally, people had issues with Biden pre-Afghanistan - questions over his mental capabilities, the rise of inflation etc. What has happened only builds on these.0 -
Also, the atheists tended to get barbecued as well, so they had two reasons to miss the religious commissions.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
And also, only some religions went all out for idolatry and art (not quite the same thing). Some eschewed them, and to this day I find the bare austerity of many Presbyterian kirks calming.
As so often said on PB: dodgy conclusions come from inherently biased samples.2 -
The crumb of comfort for Labour with polls showing a high green voting intention is that come a GE many of those will move to them .
I’d be surprised if the Greens polled more than 3% at the next election .1 -
Or Lib Dem?nico679 said:The crumb of comfort for Labour with polls showing a high green voting intention is that come a GE many of those will move to them .
I’d be surprised if the Greens polled more than 3% at the next election .0 -
I think we may be seeing the left vote become more efficient, with those Green votes mostly in safe Labour seats.pigeon said:
In some ways it's a surprise that the Greens aren't doing considerably better than they are. Labour and the Greens are both centred on the leadership, support and interests of the same class of left-leaning metropolitan. The main difference between the two is that Labour, under current management, are blander and less radical.GIN1138 said:
Greens about to replace Lib-Dems as Britain's third party?Scott_xP said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 31% (-1)
GRN: 9% (+1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
SNP: 5% (=)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @YouGov, 25-26 Aug.
Changes w/ 17-18 Aug.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/08/27/voting-intention-con-39-lab-31-25-26-aug?utm_source=twitter+&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voting_intention0 -
I am pleased to announce i have now locked in a guaranteed profit on the 20w4 Presidential Election.
I will not be taking any questions at this time.
Thank you.0 -
I thought he was coming out of it being completely deluded and incapable of coherent thought. That is, at least, the impression I have been getting of him. I am glad he won the election because... well, Trump. But I never had any illusions about him being any better as a president than the Golden Wigged One and sadly that has proven to be the case.FF43 said:
Agree with you on the compassion and decency point, but I would think on the mental faculties issue, Biden comes out of this being extremely hard-headed, Cynical actuallyMrEd said:There are two parts to this - the decision itself and the impact on Biden's brand / image, related to how he compares with Trump.
On the first part, I'd agree re Biden not taking a political hit. The US people generally want out of Afghanistan so it's a popular decision.
The problem for Biden comes with the second part. Three of his key election brand platforms were competence, compassion and decency. I'd argue the way the withdrawal was done has seriously damaged the first but maybe not permanently. However, he will definitely take a permanent hit on the other two (anyone who says Biden is compassionate will get laughed at given his "that was four or five days ago" comment).
All these three points were supposed to be differentiators with Trump. If you are going to pitch Biden as an hard ass, American first President, why not go for the real thing. That is another issue.
Finally, people had issues with Biden pre-Afghanistan - questions over his mental capabilities, the rise of inflation etc. What has happened only builds on these.0 -
Maybe but if you want to see great art and sculpture you go to the Vatican or even the likes of St Paul's cathedral not a kirk.Carnyx said:
Also, the atheists tended to get barbecued as well, so they had two reasons to miss the religious commissions.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
And also, only some religions went all out for idolatry and art (not quite the same thing). Some eschewed them, and to this day I find the bare austerity of many Presbyterian kirks calming.
As so often said on PB: dodgy conclusions come from inherently biased samples.
You can be an atheist and still appreciate the artworks the Vatican has and commissioned even if the kirk is more pious in its worship0 -
On those results given the CSU will likely provide over half the remaining Union seats in the Bundestag hopefully they get more influence in selecting the chancellor candidate next time and Soder therefore gets the gig.TheWhiteRabbit said:OldKingCole said:
Looks like an SPD led coalition on the way. A few days ago my fellow Essex Man was postulating a break up of the CDU/CSU alliance and a separate Bavaria within the EU. I wonder!!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:Post debate poll in Germany:
Infratest dimap / ARD: SPD 25 % (+4%) | CDU/CSU 20 % (-3%) | GRÜNE 16 % | FDP 13 % | AfD 12 % | DIE LINKE 6 % | Sonstige 8 %
Changes with 19 August.
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de
Another dire poll for Laschet
This is according to one pollster. Yes ,their claimed 7.5% SPD lead is large.
But look at the distribution - I don't think it's the CSU letting the side down*
(*don't overthink it)
Clearly it is Laschet and the CDU who will have lost it this time0 -
Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/0 -
You can indeed appreciate them but of course one of the reasons they were there as because the Church had all the wealth and all the power. It is easy to get all the best artists when you are the only ones who can actually pay them.HYUFD said:
Maybe but if you want to see great art and sculpture you go to the Vatican or even the likes of St Paul's cathedral not a kirk.Carnyx said:
Also, the atheists tended to get barbecued as well, so they had two reasons to miss the religious commissions.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
And also, only some religions went all out for idolatry and art (not quite the same thing). Some eschewed them, and to this day I find the bare austerity of many Presbyterian kirks calming.
As so often said on PB: dodgy conclusions come from inherently biased samples.
You can be an atheist and still appreciate the artworks the Vatican has and commissioned even if the kirk is more pious in its worship1 -
A mixture of cheer your own side up and get a narrative going in the media.Theuniondivvie said:On topic, what's the purpose of shove-you-down-the-stairs questions like that in the Rasmussen poll? In the good old days you'd just be laughed at cos you're so transparently desperate to fix the answer, but is it more important now to give your social media foot soldiers something to crow about? Of course some of the more..er..naive may think this is a reasonable question which gives a clear snapshot of where the US voter is right now.
Fox News: The voters want Biden impeached why aren't the traitors in Congress impeaching Biden?0 -
Ridiculous.FrancisUrquhart said:Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/1 -
Bollocks.
Root out.0 -
For @TheScreamingEagles you can get Abba tickets by looking at https://abbavoyage.com/ your best bet is to pre-order the album.1
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Sorry that was my fault. I have been out all day and not had a chance to catch up with the cricket. I put on TMS just in time to hear Root get bowled. I have switched off again.TheScreamingEagles said:Bollocks.
Root out.
Sorry again.2 -
There were some bankers, merchants and traders around even then but I don't see many of the most profitable corporations around today funding art and new buildings as much as the Church did then.Richard_Tyndall said:
You can indeed appreciate them but of course one of the reasons they were there as because the Church had all the wealth and all the power. It is easy to get all the best artists when you are the only ones who can actually pay them.HYUFD said:
Maybe but if you want to see great art and sculpture you go to the Vatican or even the likes of St Paul's cathedral not a kirk.Carnyx said:
Also, the atheists tended to get barbecued as well, so they had two reasons to miss the religious commissions.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
And also, only some religions went all out for idolatry and art (not quite the same thing). Some eschewed them, and to this day I find the bare austerity of many Presbyterian kirks calming.
As so often said on PB: dodgy conclusions come from inherently biased samples.
You can be an atheist and still appreciate the artworks the Vatican has and commissioned even if the kirk is more pious in its worship
Plus even today it is the church and religious bodies providing soup kitchens and homeless shelters, not big corporations0 -
Cheers.eek said:For @TheScreamingEagles you can get Abba tickets by looking at https://abbavoyage.com/ your best bet is to pre-order the album.
0 -
Have you seen what that **** Joe Rogan admitted to?FrancisUrquhart said:Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/0 -
If you liked her "Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population" in March 2020 and "Covid's IFR is somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%" in May 2020, you're going to love
@SunetraGupta's latest, "There isn’t a case for mass ‘booster’ jabs"!
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1433471557616246784?s=200 -
Yes I linked it earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
Have you seen what that **** Joe Rogan admitted to?FrancisUrquhart said:Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/0 -
Tory MSP apologises for suggesting Nicola Sturgeon is anti-English
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58421178.amp0 -
Utterly bewildered by it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes I linked it earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
Have you seen what that **** Joe Rogan admitted to?FrancisUrquhart said:Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/0 -
SAGE advisers have been sent suspicious packages, reveals member who's been targeted by anti-vaxxers
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-sage-advisers-sent-suspicious-packages-reveals-member-whos-been-targeted-by-anti-vaxxers-123975730 -
I am not actually....he has always been a bit out there, regular use of a floatation tank while doing MDMA, lots of weed, and he is big friends with Brett Weinstein, who has been pushing all the ivermectin BS for months, so much so Sam Harris called him out and did a full special debunking all this crap and basically saying Weinstein has to stop this, it is endangering people.TheScreamingEagles said:
Utterly bewildered by it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes I linked it earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
Have you seen what that **** Joe Rogan admitted to?FrancisUrquhart said:Shakes head....
One third of EFL footballers have no plans to get coronavirus vaccine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/09/01/revealed-one-third-efl-footballers-have-no-plans-get-coronavirus/1 -
@MikeSmithson, OGH - let's not have any religious headers of any sort.
I've written to you previously about your wonky child.0 -
Winning runs, second innings, nailed on.TheScreamingEagles said:Bollocks.
Root out.0 -
Which ignores the billions being put into improving human life by people like Bill Gates.HYUFD said:
There were some bankers, merchants and traders around even then but I don't see many of the most profitable corporations around today funding art and new buildings as much as the Church did then.Richard_Tyndall said:
You can indeed appreciate them but of course one of the reasons they were there as because the Church had all the wealth and all the power. It is easy to get all the best artists when you are the only ones who can actually pay them.HYUFD said:
Maybe but if you want to see great art and sculpture you go to the Vatican or even the likes of St Paul's cathedral not a kirk.Carnyx said:
Also, the atheists tended to get barbecued as well, so they had two reasons to miss the religious commissions.kjh said:@HYUFD on PT. Good response 'You may have done but you didn't' re atheists not doing all the stuff that religious groups did in the past. Can't disagree with that.
But maybe if there hadn't been religion and hence everyone whapping great buildings for god and pictures of god and jesus, etc, they would have turned their hands to something else creative. As it was all the creative lot had their hands full of all the religious commissions.
And also, only some religions went all out for idolatry and art (not quite the same thing). Some eschewed them, and to this day I find the bare austerity of many Presbyterian kirks calming.
As so often said on PB: dodgy conclusions come from inherently biased samples.
You can be an atheist and still appreciate the artworks the Vatican has and commissioned even if the kirk is more pious in its worship
Plus even today it is the church and religious bodies providing soup kitchens and homeless shelters, not big corporations
And of course you are also wrong about most big corporations. One company I have contracted to regularly has been meeting its commitment to donate several hundred thousand pounds each year to local charities even when it was £2 billion in debt. Perhaps the big difference is that a lot of companies just get on and do it without making a song and dance about it.
Oh and the idea that the Church should be praised for commissioning all that art and architecture when they would happily have condemned and probably killed off anyone who did the same thing but without the religious connections is rather perverse. They were more than happy to destroy any great works of art that were not 'Christian'. The destruction of the Library of the Serapeum in Alexandria is just one small example.2 -
Or Green..FrancisUrquhart said:
Or Lib Dem?nico679 said:The crumb of comfort for Labour with polls showing a high green voting intention is that come a GE many of those will move to them .
I’d be surprised if the Greens polled more than 3% at the next election .0 -
Wonky child = TSE. Robert, and any other children you may have are great so far as I know. TSE is great too. A bit wonky though.Omnium said:@MikeSmithson, OGH - let's not have any religious headers of any sort.
I've written to you previously about your wonky child.0 -
Poor innocent child.Omnium said:@MikeSmithson, OGH - let's not have any religious headers of any sort.
I've written to you previously about your wonky child.
Clearly you're not familiar with Proverbs 5:19 or Ezekiel 23:20 or Pulp Fiction, all of whom I am trying to work into PB headers.4
