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He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,635
edited August 2021 in General
He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind – politicalbetting.com

EXCLUSIVE: @LucidTalk poll for @BelTel ?DUP overtaken by UUP & TUV -now 4th placed party?DUP 13% (-3 from May)?SF 25% (no change)?UUP 16% (+2)?TUV 14% (+3)?Alliance 13% (-3)?SDLP 13% (+1)https://t.co/ii45JGbAAW

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    Test to see if the comments work.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    edited August 2021
    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,111
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    It would have been, had you remembered to annotate it as Proverbs 11.29.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,164
    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Predicting con maj 2024?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    I'm loathe to use that one. Contains Israel in it and it will set off some fans of Jez who don't do nuance.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    Or in the absence of OGH 2 Kings 2:23.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,775
    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    Or in the absence of OGH 2 Kings 2:23.
    I'm more likely to use Proverbs 5:19 or Ezekiel 23:20.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    squareroot2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    It would have been, had you remembered to annotate it as Proverbs 11.29.
    I didn't want to patronise PBers by annotating it as such.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    Or in the absence of OGH 2 Kings 2:23.
    That was jeering to make him go away, not while he was away.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,111
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    Or in the absence of OGH 2 Kings 2:23.
    Superb. I have to say that reading had passed me by. Much better translation using the NIV rather than KJV.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    The DUP has many former UUP activists who I suspect will jump ship if it suits.... its true that they were the turkeys voting for Christmas....Doug Beattie (leader) is to be given credit if this UUP rise really does bear fruit.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    Also, how would TUV (who would surely refuse to work with the Shinners) becoming the largest Unionist party affect power sharing?

    It’s not easy to see how Stormont could be managed if SF and TUV were first and second.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    It would be interesting to see how Irish reunification would work. Would the EU help RoI meet the costs? Would GB be expected to carry on paying for NI for many years?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,369
    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,749
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    There is a foaming-dog-fever element of Unionism where like evangelical GOPpers their bible consists entirely of Genesis, Leviticus and Revelation. They want to be part of Britain and have a social order than is abhorrent across the water. If this new TUV group becomes prominent then I would hope sane unionists migrate towards the middle ground.

    There is no United Kingdom. NI and GB are separate trading zones and the restrictions which already prompted riots don't full kick in for a few months. Faced with the reality that Britain doesn't care for them and has cast them off a border poll looks inevitable.

    Then we have the other inevitability. Another civil war. All because Worzel Gummidge doesn't do details
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    Also, how would TUV (who would surely refuse to work with the Shinners) becoming the largest Unionist party affect power sharing?

    It’s not easy to see how Stormont could be managed if SF and TUV were first and second.
    I suspect we'd have a new St Andrews agreement if say SF/UUP/Alliance/SDLP had a majority of MLAs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    tlg86 said:

    It would be interesting to see how Irish reunification would work. Would the EU help RoI meet the costs? Would GB be expected to carry on paying for NI for many years?

    I think America may also contribute towards the costs.

    Going to Boston and New York in the early 2000s around St Patrick's Day was quite the eye opener to where even Americans with no Irish heritage stand on Irish unity.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,375
    Paralympics – Britain remains in second place on the medals table whether counted by quality or quantity of medals.
    https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/paralympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,989
    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    When it comes to Gavin Williamson, Nick Gibb, Amanda Spielman or indeed any official of the DfE, it usually saves time to assume they’re completely fucking stupid and said something that makes no sense because they’re idiots.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Every time I see TUV written I initially read it as "Trade Union Voice". Don't know if that's just me.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,749
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    When the combined vote for the Unionist parties in NI (UUP+TUV+DUP) is 43% on the latest poll compared to only 38% for the Nationalist parties of SF and SDLP combined there are no grounds for a border poll whatsoever. Unionist parties will still win most MLAs so Stormont would still vote down a border poll (the Alliance also oppose a border poll now). Westminster would not even have to refuse a poll as it will refuse an indyref2 in Scotland where Nationalist parties have a majority at Holyrood combining SNP and Green. (Albeit in NI the NI Secretary under the GFA has to consider a poll if grounds for one which clearly there are not, whereas in Scotland legally Westminster could refuse indyref2 regardless forever under the Scotland Act 1998 which reserves union matters to the UK government).

    The mere fact Michelle O'Neil would move from DFM to FM and UUP Leader Doug Beattie would become DFM does not change that. Despite the collapse of the DUP at Stormont I would expect the DUP vote to hold up better under FPTP where TUV voters would stick with them.

    Not 63% of NI voters in the Observer poll do not want a border poll in the next 5 years and staying in the UK still leads Irish unity in the poll too confirming that
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    edited August 2021
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
    He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.

    At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.

    Edit - incidentally, the grotesque way bubbles were used and misused, and given how little use they were, does mean abolishing them is the right decision.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,749
    edited August 2021
    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
    He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.

    At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
    Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2021
    "A dramatic fall like this might rival Likud’s fall from grace in the 2006 Knesset elections where they tumbled from first to fourth."

    So by the following election after that we should expect the DUP to be back able to get the First Minister position where it will be held by the same LikudDUP leader dominating politics for well over a decade?

    Maybe not your best ever analogy TSE.

    PS I still think its a real shame for Israel and the Middle East that Sharon had that stroke in the lead up to the 2006 elections. Had Sharon remained PM instead of the way being cleared for Netanyahu to return dominating politics for over a decade, I think that would have been much better.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    Also, how would TUV (who would surely refuse to work with the Shinners) becoming the largest Unionist party affect power sharing?

    It’s not easy to see how Stormont could be managed if SF and TUV were first and second.
    It wouldn't, Stormont would collapse and the TUV would refuse to share power with SF until the Irish Sea border was removed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    swing_voter said:

    The DUP has many former UUP activists who I suspect will jump ship if it suits.... its true that they were the turkeys voting for Christmas....Doug Beattie (leader) is to be given credit if this UUP rise really does bear fruit.

    The main movement from the DUP is to the even harder line Unionist TUV, it is Alliance voters moving to the UUP not DUP voters on this poll
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,749
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    RochdalePioneers said:

    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
    He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.

    At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
    Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
    So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?

    Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.

    Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?

    (If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,328
    Philip_Thompson said:

    "A dramatic fall like this might rival Likud’s fall from grace in the 2006 Knesset elections where they tumbled from first to fourth."

    So by the following election after that we should expect the DUP to be back able to get the First Minister position where it will be held by the same LikudDUP leader dominating politics for well over a decade?

    Maybe not your best ever analogy TSE.

    PS I still think its a real shame for Israel and the Middle East that Sharon had that stroke in the lead up to the 2006 elections. Had Sharon remained PM instead of the way being cleared for Netanyahu to return dominating politics for over a decade, I think that would have been much better.

    Actually that was my point, it might be recoverable for them. If I were suggesting an extinction level event I would have chosen the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,837
    Mr. Thompson, aye, Sharon's stroke was dreadful.

    Mr. Doethur, I'll be glad when masks are consigned to the dustbin of history.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    It would be interesting to see how Irish reunification would work. Would the EU help RoI meet the costs? Would GB be expected to carry on paying for NI for many years?

    Why should we be expected to pay for NI?

    So long and good riddance as far as I'm concerned if there is a border poll.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,749
    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
    He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.

    At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
    Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
    So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?

    Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.

    Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?

    (If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
    I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.

    The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    New Nanos Canada poll Conservatives 33.2%, Liberals 31.1%, NDP 19.9%, Green 5.9%, BQ 5.7%. Trudeau still narrowly ahead as preferred PM 29.7% to 27.6% for O'Toole

    https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2021-1947-ELXN44-Nightly-Tracking-Report-2021-08-28.pdf

    That would be a swing from Liberal to Conservative of 0.45% since 2019 across Canada so would be neck and neck for most seats.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Thompson, aye, Sharon's stroke was dreadful.

    Mr. Doethur, I'll be glad when masks are consigned to the dustbin of history.

    When this bloody thing is over
    No more PPE for me.
    When I get these stupid masks off
    Oh, how happy I will be.
    No more LFTs on Sunday
    No more track and trace to pass
    I will tell that Dido Harding
    To shove her app right up her arse.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,775
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,755
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    I noticed the SF/SDLP/Alliance majority too. Whast is the Alliance position on a border poll?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,595
    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?

    Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?

    The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.

    The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.

    The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    RochdalePioneers said:

    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    ydoethur said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????

    Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
    He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.

    At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
    Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
    So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?

    Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.

    Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?

    (If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
    I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.

    The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
    My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.

    There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.

    So - where is it?

    Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.

    But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,988
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    Also, how would TUV (who would surely refuse to work with the Shinners) becoming the largest Unionist party affect power sharing?

    It’s not easy to see how Stormont could be managed if SF and TUV were first and second.
    It wouldn't, Stormont would collapse and the TUV would refuse to share power with SF until the Irish Sea border was removed
    Direct rule from Westminster and Dublin then after a second election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    Yes there is, in terms of a border poll absolutely there is.

    It is all very well you ranting forever and a day on Scotland about how the SNP and Greens are one nationalist block vote for indyref2 at Holyrood.

    However you cannot then by the same token ignore the fact SF and the SDLP are the nationalist block vote for a border poll in NI and on this poll they would still have significantly fewer MLAs than the Unionist block vote in NI of UUP, TUV and DUP.

    You also do not even realise Stormont is entirely elected by PR STV, there are no FPTP seats like at Holyrood so the Unionist seats share will match exactly the combined percentage of Unionist votes. That means a majority for Unionist and centre parties and no border poll
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    The UK evacuation operation in Afghanistan, known as OP PITTING, has concluded. The final departure of UK troops brings to an end 20 years of presence in this troubled nation. It is hard to see how their departure is anything other than a tactical victory amid the wreckage of a strategic defeat.

    Much will be written in the weeks and months to come about the operation, policy and outcomes. It is worth reflecting briefly though on the ‘hot takes’ that have emerged from the last few weeks, and what this means for the British Armed Forces and Whitehall at large.

    A key positive of the operation is that it highlighted once again the strength and flexibility of the British ability to conduct strategic airlift. That multiple aircraft were quickly made available and able to operate in challenging conditions at very short notice is testament to the capability of the RAF airlift force.......

    .....The final area of concern is the way in which social media can be abused on an operation to distract attention from saving lives. This author is absolutely clear in his view that the conduct of Pen Farthing was despicable, and the grandiose posturing for some dogs and cats, and the (allegedly) expletive ridden demands for attention distracted people at all levels from focusing on saving human life.

    https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2021/08/pitting-it-all-together-thoughts-on.html
  • eekeek Posts: 30,988
    NickPalmer said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    I noticed the SF/SDLP/Alliance majority too. Whast is the Alliance position on a border poll?
    The last statement seems to be that the demand for a poll doesn't exist and therefore no poll is required.

    Looking (quickly) at news stories from over there there seems to be some suggestions / pressure that the alliance party needs to make decisions and including stating they are unionist to allow them to take the Deputy first minister position if they come second.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,837
    Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.

    However.

    The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).

    If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,284
    A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    NickPalmer said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    I noticed the SF/SDLP/Alliance majority too. Whast is the Alliance position on a border poll?
    The Alliance's position is there is no current case for a border poll

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-current-case-for-united-ireland-border-poll-alliance-party-1.4196502
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,775
    CarlottaVance said:

    The UK evacuation operation in Afghanistan, known as OP PITTING, has concluded. The final departure of UK troops brings to an end 20 years of presence in this troubled nation. It is hard to see how their departure is anything other than a tactical victory amid the wreckage of a strategic defeat.

    Much will be written in the weeks and months to come about the operation, policy and outcomes. It is worth reflecting briefly though on the ‘hot takes’ that have emerged from the last few weeks, and what this means for the British Armed Forces and Whitehall at large.

    A key positive of the operation is that it highlighted once again the strength and flexibility of the British ability to conduct strategic airlift. That multiple aircraft were quickly made available and able to operate in challenging conditions at very short notice is testament to the capability of the RAF airlift force.......

    .....The final area of concern is the way in which social media can be abused on an operation to distract attention from saving lives. This author is absolutely clear in his view that the conduct of Pen Farthing was despicable, and the grandiose posturing for some dogs and cats, and the (allegedly) expletive ridden demands for attention distracted people at all levels from focusing on saving human life.

    https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2021/08/pitting-it-all-together-thoughts-on.html

    Fuck that MoD astroturfing operation. The tories have just cut 25% of the RAF's airlift capacity so they were very lucky this didn't happen a couple of years hence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,595
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    I noticed the SF/SDLP/Alliance majority too. Whast is the Alliance position on a border poll?
    The Alliance's position is there is no current case for a border poll

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-current-case-for-united-ireland-border-poll-alliance-party-1.4196502
    But a border fence to sit on?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    It would be interesting to see how Irish reunification would work. Would the EU help RoI meet the costs? Would GB be expected to carry on paying for NI for many years?

    I think America may also contribute towards the costs.

    Going to Boston and New York in the early 2000s around St Patrick's Day was quite the eye opener to where even Americans with no Irish heritage stand on Irish unity.
    Seems a result, to be honest. If there are dumb Americans prepared to cough up for it, I’m all for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    kle4 said:

    A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.

    I wonder if anyone has pointed this out to the SNP? :wink:
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Dura_Ace said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    The UK evacuation operation in Afghanistan, known as OP PITTING, has concluded. The final departure of UK troops brings to an end 20 years of presence in this troubled nation. It is hard to see how their departure is anything other than a tactical victory amid the wreckage of a strategic defeat.

    Much will be written in the weeks and months to come about the operation, policy and outcomes. It is worth reflecting briefly though on the ‘hot takes’ that have emerged from the last few weeks, and what this means for the British Armed Forces and Whitehall at large.

    A key positive of the operation is that it highlighted once again the strength and flexibility of the British ability to conduct strategic airlift. That multiple aircraft were quickly made available and able to operate in challenging conditions at very short notice is testament to the capability of the RAF airlift force.......

    .....The final area of concern is the way in which social media can be abused on an operation to distract attention from saving lives. This author is absolutely clear in his view that the conduct of Pen Farthing was despicable, and the grandiose posturing for some dogs and cats, and the (allegedly) expletive ridden demands for attention distracted people at all levels from focusing on saving human life.

    https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2021/08/pitting-it-all-together-thoughts-on.html

    Fuck that MoD astroturfing operation. The tories have just cut 25% of the RAF's airlift capacity so they were very lucky this didn't happen a couple of years hence.
    A point made in the article, if you'd bothered to read it:

    While there are many positives to draw from this operation, there are too some areas of mild, potentially growing, concern. The first is that PITTING highlighted the importance of the C130J as a key part of the RAF toolbox. The fact that this aircraft will leave service shortly, without replacement, some 10 years earlier than planned is of growing concern. It is reasonable to say that on current plans, in 2-3 years time, the RAF could not repeat the success of PITTING using its currently planned force.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    pigeon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
    Same point. What do you think it would cost the HSE to do even the bare minimum tweaking needed to fool NI into thinking the NHS was still there?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,501
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,284
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.

    I wonder if anyone has pointed this out to the SNP? :wink:
    People could support both these positions they just need to be careful of what arguments they use so they dont contradict each other.

    Take Gibraltar - I've seen it argued it should be given back as it's in Spain, but Spain doesn't own every part of the Iberian Penninsula, they have no divine right to every bit of it (as the Portuguese know) and the actual arguments for its return are more technical as I understand it (and I think slightly more 'we want this' as opposed to 'it is ours' compared to the Falklands)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    pigeon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
    Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.

    Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?

    Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?

    The union isn't working.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    Yes and in NI (since 2019 in both cases I think). Doesn't mean the issue has gone away.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    As they are now in NI too since 2020.

    Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.

    Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.

    Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,284
    I know the reasons for it, but reserving power to specific communities and their political mouthpieces seems like a bad system in the long run, one that encourages political leaders to pander even more than usual to their base and to try to keep the state weak. Hopefully their grip is weakening the longer peace continues.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.

    I wonder if anyone has pointed this out to the SNP? :wink:
    People could support both these positions they just need to be careful of what arguments they use so they dont contradict each other.

    Take Gibraltar - I've seen it argued it should be given back as it's in Spain, but Spain doesn't own every part of the Iberian Penninsula, they have no divine right to every bit of it (as the Portuguese know) and the actual arguments for its return are more technical as I understand it (and I think slightly more 'we want this' as opposed to 'it is ours' compared to the Falklands)
    If you want a really tangled and convoluted claim, look at Essequibo.

    Venezuela’s claim is essentially ‘we know it’s not ours and everything we say is a lie but we want it so there.’
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    edited August 2021
    CarlottaVance said:

    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20

    Could have been worse, could have been The Full Monty.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,964
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    Behold, I send you forth as sheep in the midst of wolves: be ye therein wise as serpents, and harmless as doves.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,595
    edited August 2021
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.

    However.

    The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).

    If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.

    I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.

    My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.

    It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,964
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm going to use biblical quotes for PB thread header headlines going forward.

    Makes me look even more erudite and classy.

    With the DUP we might perhaps talk about dogs returning to their vomit?
    I'm using Proverbs 26:11 for another thread header in the next week but not about Northern Ireland.
    Perhaps 1 Kings 14:10 then?
    Or in the absence of OGH 2 Kings 2:23.
    That was jeering to make him go away, not while he was away.
    Matthew 25: 14-15.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BRUSSELS — The European Union is set to advise member states that they should reintroduce travel restrictions for visitors from the United States, three E.U. officials said on Sunday, as coronavirus infections and hospitalizations have surged in the U.S. in recent weeks.

    Starting Monday, the officials said, the United States will be removed from a “safe list” of countries whose residents can travel to the 27-nation bloc without additional restrictions, such as quarantine and testing requirements. The suggested restrictions, made by the European Council, will not be mandatory for member countries, and it will remain up to those countries to decide whether or not to impose them.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/29/world/europe/eu-us-travel-restrictions.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    Philip_Thompson said:

    pigeon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
    Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.

    Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?

    Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?

    The union isn't working.
    NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2021
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,501
    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    As they are now in NI too since 2020.

    Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.

    Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.

    Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
    Is that just information or are you trying to make a point?

    The thought I take from it is that the RoI is considerably far ahead of the UK, as far as 'democracy' is concerned. As you've indicated several times, the UK is, as the late Viscount Hailsham pointed out many years ago, an 'elective dictatorship'.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,375
    ydoethur said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20

    Could have been worse, could have been The Full Monty.
    And apparently, Gove's is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,406
    This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.

    Trump is not mentioned once in the article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/30/conservatives-can-must-save-america-biden/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,501
    ydoethur said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20

    Could have been worse, could have been The Full Monty.
    Ugh!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,928
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20

    Could have been worse, could have been The Full Monty.
    And apparently, Gove's is.
    Well, the whole point of the Full Monty was that they displayed their Goves.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,964
    CarlottaVance said:

    Cannot be unseen:

    Of course I was going to put Michael Gove raving into Trainspotting.

    https://twitter.com/MattHighton/status/1432073998070845446?s=20

    Complete with 1690 bank card number, as a good Unionist? I think he's too fly for that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    As they are now in NI too since 2020.

    Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.

    Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.

    Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
    Is that just information or are you trying to make a point?

    The thought I take from it is that the RoI is considerably far ahead of the UK, as far as 'democracy' is concerned. As you've indicated several times, the UK is, as the late Viscount Hailsham pointed out many years ago, an 'elective dictatorship'.
    I prefer elective oligarchy but he's right, and a good thing to too. The electorate is not to be trusted with direct choices.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RochdalePioneers said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.

    I did read that the UUP are as much enamoured with Boris Johnson as the DUP because of that border in the Irish Sea.

    What is more likely is the TUV become the dominant Unionist Party and TUV make the DUP look like woke liberals.
    There is a foaming-dog-fever element of Unionism where like evangelical GOPpers their bible consists entirely of Genesis, Leviticus and Revelation. They want to be part of Britain and have a social order than is abhorrent across the water. If this new TUV group becomes prominent then I would hope sane unionists migrate towards the middle ground.

    There is no United Kingdom. NI and GB are separate trading zones and the restrictions which already prompted riots don't full kick in for a few months. Faced with the reality that Britain doesn't care for them and has cast them off a border poll looks inevitable.

    Then we have the other inevitability. Another civil war. All because Worzel Gummidge doesn't do details
    And there was me thinking the people who actually pull the trigger have some responsibility…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    As they are now in NI too since 2020.

    Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.

    Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.

    Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
    Is that just information or are you trying to make a point?

    The thought I take from it is that the RoI is considerably far ahead of the UK, as far as 'democracy' is concerned. As you've indicated several times, the UK is, as the late Viscount Hailsham pointed out many years ago, an 'elective dictatorship'.
    The mainland UK legalised abortion in 1967, 53 years before RoI legalised abortion in 2020.

    The mainland UK legalised gay marriage in 2013, 2 years before RoI legalised gay marriage in 2015. England and Wales also legalised homosexuality in 1967 (it was legalised in Scotland in 1980 and NI in 1982). RoI only legalised homosexuality in 1993.

    Personally I think we have had far too many referendums recently, we elect MPs to decide most matters as a representative democracy
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,595
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    Yes there is, in terms of a border poll absolutely there is.

    It is all very well you ranting forever and a day on Scotland about how the SNP and Greens are one nationalist block vote for indyref2 at Holyrood.

    However you cannot then by the same token ignore the fact SF and the SDLP are the nationalist block vote for a border poll in NI and on this poll they would still have significantly fewer MLAs than the Unionist block vote in NI of UUP, TUV and DUP.

    You also do not even realise Stormont is entirely elected by PR STV, there are no FPTP seats like at Holyrood so the Unionist seats share will match exactly the combined percentage of Unionist votes. That means a majority for Unionist and centre parties and no border poll
    I wish I lived in your black and white, or should that be red and blue world, where everything is so nice and straightforward.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,837
    Mr. Pete, that's a largely fair comment.

    It may have held more sway if Osborne hadn't indulged in end of the world portents of doom, rather diluting any other (more genuine) concerns about the costs of departure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,501
    IshmaelZ said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.

    Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
    Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
    As they are now in NI too since 2020.

    Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.

    Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.

    Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
    Is that just information or are you trying to make a point?

    The thought I take from it is that the RoI is considerably far ahead of the UK, as far as 'democracy' is concerned. As you've indicated several times, the UK is, as the late Viscount Hailsham pointed out many years ago, an 'elective dictatorship'.
    I prefer elective oligarchy but he's right, and a good thing to too. The electorate is not to be trusted with direct choices.
    Agree and disagree. There are issues which are, and ought to be, the responsibility of government. There are other issues, which cross party lines where it is better for the electorate to have a direct say.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,755
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    The revival of the UUP at the expense of Alliance is good news for unionists. I expect that TUV will actually not get close to 14% as it’s a one man band.

    Yes, TSE completely ignores the fact the combined Unionist vote is up 2% on this poll and the combined Nationalist vote is only up 1%, with clear movement from Alliance to UUP. Most of the rest of the movement is within the Unionist camp from DUP to TUV
    There isn't a Unionist block vote. We don't get to the election, say "more nationalist MLAs have been elected but as the combined unionist vote was higher we're going to reverse this.

    A unionist vote split between different flavours of crazy means a majority for nationalists and centre parties, and that means a border poll.
    I noticed the SF/SDLP/Alliance majority too. Whast is the Alliance position on a border poll?
    The Alliance's position is there is no current case for a border poll

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-current-case-for-united-ireland-border-poll-alliance-party-1.4196502
    Thanks. They do sound very sensible people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    rottenborough said:

    This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.

    Trump is not mentioned once in the article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/30/conservatives-can-must-save-america-biden/

    He also called Trump the most pro British President since Reagan

    https://twitter.com/NileGardiner/status/1135980377485512704?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,595
    rottenborough said:

    This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.

    Trump is not mentioned once in the article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/30/conservatives-can-must-save-america-biden/

    "This far-left administration". Have we discovered HYUFD's true identity, and that he is moonlighting for the Daily Telegraph?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,964
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    pigeon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
    Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.

    Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?

    Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?

    The union isn't working.
    NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2021
    Oh really? What's that border in the Irish Sea about then? And why are its denizens allowed to be Irish citizens if they want? That's not 'as much a part of the UK' as Gallowgateland is.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    pigeon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the thread TSE

    Two things:

    1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;

    2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland

    Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
    I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
    The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
    If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.

    The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
    Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.

    Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?

    Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?

    The union isn't working.
    NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/march2021
    Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.

    There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,612
    edited August 2021
    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:

    This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.

    Trump is not mentioned once in the article.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/30/conservatives-can-must-save-america-biden/

    "This far-left administration". Have we discovered HYUFD's true identity, and that he is moonlighting for the Daily Telegraph?
    Nile Gardiner was a researcher for and aide to Baroness Thatcher and foreign policy adviser to Giuliani's 2008 Presidential campaign and heads the Heritage Foundation Thatcher Center for Freedom in DC. So rather more distinguished than me but a good chap certainly
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,369
    If anything, polling has shown a shift away from a United Ireland, over the past 18 months.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    “Clear victory for Scholz on TV”

    Even the conservative @BILD, Germany’s most read newspaper, gives SPD’s chancellor candidate the win in last night’s TV debate (deeming it a “debacle” for Laschet).

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1432251252180664321?s=20

    And a new German compound word - Debatten-Debakel.....no Google Translate required...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,775
    I do wonder what's going on with Gove. He and his monster hog are also on some dating app.
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