Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
It may have held more sway if Osborne hadn't indulged in end of the world portents of doom, rather diluting any other (more genuine) concerns about the costs of departure.
That too is true Morris, but negative campaign doom mongering was a tactic that had worked beautifully against Milliband in 2015. Why change a winning formula?
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Gosh that's a a surprise! Conservatism is favoured in the Telegraph, and by this author:
Nile Gardiner is a British conservative commentator, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Gosh that's a a surprise! Conservatism is favoured in the Telegraph, and by this author:
Nile Gardiner is a British conservative commentator, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
He is right though, Biden is the most leftwing US President since LBJ domestically and the weakest President abroad since Carter
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Gosh that's a a surprise! Conservatism is favoured in the Telegraph, and by this author:
Nile Gardiner is a British conservative commentator, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
I was more commenting on the missing mention of the enormous orange haired elephant in the room.
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
"This far-left administration". Have we discovered HYUFD's true identity, and that he is moonlighting for the Daily Telegraph?
Nile Gardiner was a researcher for and aide to Baroness Thatcher and foreign policy adviser to Giuliani's 2008 Presidential campaign and heads the Heritage Foundation Thatcher Center for Freedom in DC. So rather more distinguished than me but a good chap certainly
Even the conservative @BILD, Germany’s most read newspaper, gives SPD’s chancellor candidate the win in last night’s TV debate (deeming it a “debacle” for Laschet).
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
"This far-left administration". Have we discovered HYUFD's true identity, and that he is moonlighting for the Daily Telegraph?
Nile Gardiner was a researcher for and aide to Baroness Thatcher and foreign policy adviser to Giuliani's 2008 Presidential campaign and heads the Heritage Foundation Thatcher Center for Freedom in DC. So rather more distinguished than me but a good chap certainly
HYUFD, I am sure you would not have been foolhardy enough to become "foreign policy adviser to Giuliani's 2008 Presidential campaign" (although TBF Guiliani still had his marbles back then).
The statement made however read like it could have been straight out of the Chair of Epping Forest Conservatives' campaign textbook... whoever that night be.
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Had hardline Brexiteers had their way a hard border would have been imposed on Ireland and the whole UK gone to No Deal, Boris at least avoided that
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Not just Tory MPs: Secretary of State as well. Karen Bradley, in 2018 (after Brexit, but before any deal was done):
"I didn't understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa."
To be fair, Julian Smith did seem to understand the issues. So he was sacked after six months.
It may have held more sway if Osborne hadn't indulged in end of the world portents of doom, rather diluting any other (more genuine) concerns about the costs of departure.
If Osborne had said "There will be gaps in supermarket shelves and the NHS will run out of test tubes" the cries of Project Fear would have intensified.
There is no version of reality the Brexiteers were ever willing to accept, and no version of their fantasy they were willing to abandon.
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
Quite. Twice weekly LFTs are pretty effective, as they pick up infectious individuals whether or not they are symptomatic.
Validation of an At-Home Direct Antigen Rapid Test for COVID-19 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2783550 We sought to validate the effectiveness of DART and to test whether at-home testing with DART could prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a coworking environment. In this cohort study of 257 individuals who collected 2951 sample pairs over the course of 6 months, we found that twice-weekly surveillance with DART detected infections in 15 individuals, with 96.3% sensitivity on days 0 through 3 of symptoms. Detection on day 3 is almost as effective as detection on day 1 for reducing the incidence of COVID-19, if 75% of a population is surveilled.6 The prevalence of disease dictates the frequency of testing and its effectiveness for controlling potential outbreaks. Limitations of this study include low infection rates among the study population. During this study, the prevalence of COVID-19 was between less than 1% and 8%.
Use of twice-weekly DART testing allowed the activities of the coworking sites to continue safely during the pandemic. Most of the positive participants reported that they did not recognize symptoms of COVID-19 until they received a positive result. Policies that rely on self-reported symptoms miss or delay detection and allow viral spread within communities...
Of course it needs everyone to use them. Very effective in small workplaces where having more than one person off can be seriously damaging to the business. Getting a class of thirty reliably to participate is another matter.
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.
The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.
Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?
Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?
The union isn't working.
NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is
Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.
There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
There is nothing wrong with the Union and the North East gets plenty of net subsidy from London and the South East too.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Gosh that's a a surprise! Conservatism is favoured in the Telegraph, and by this author:
Nile Gardiner is a British conservative commentator, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
I was more commenting on the missing mention of the enormous orange haired elephant in the room.
Yes, I know - sorry, I wasn't having a dig at you at all. Just thought it worth mentioning the author.
Mr. Pete, the Miliband-SNP line worked because it was credible. And it's still a problem for Labour now. To win the UK they almost certainly need Scotland. But that doesn't seem likely, and a deal with the SNP, or prospect thereof, isn't going to do them any favours in England.
The problem with "if we leave the EU you will suffer leprosy of the genitals and the island of Great Britain will sink beneath the waves" is that it crosses the boundary from "Oh no!" to "Yeah, right."
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
Brilliant sentence in there: Johnson's view is not yet clear.
Could be a keeper for inclusion in any post about government policy.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1431882213449035787 Vessels from foreign countries, including submersibles, nuclear vessels, entering Chinese territorial sea shall be required to report info such as their name, current position and next port of call to China’s maritime administration starting September 1.
How China defines “Chinese territorial sea”… Why is this problematic? Art. 2 of PRC's 1992 Law on Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone states “territorial sea refers to the waters adjacent to its territorial land. The PRC's territorial land includes the mainland and its offshore islands, Taiwan and the various…” https://twitter.com/JeffreyOrdaniel/status/1432020813188714497
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.
The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.
Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?
Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?
The union isn't working.
NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is
Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.
There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
There is nothing wrong with the Union and the North East gets plenty of net subsidy from London and the South East too.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
Sorry I only need to look at transport for London to see you are talking complete crap there.
The north may receive money from central Government but at best it's the same as London rx get and usually way worse.
Mr. Pete, the Miliband-SNP line worked because it was credible. And it's still a problem for Labour now. To win the UK they almost certainly need Scotland. But that doesn't seem likely, and a deal with the SNP, or prospect thereof, isn't going to do them any favours in England.
The problem with "if we leave the EU you will suffer leprosy of the genitals and the island of Great Britain will sink beneath the waves" is that it crosses the boundary from "Oh no!" to "Yeah, right."
To some of us, the pain is such it feels like our testes were removed, and without anaesthetic.
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
If you ended up with SF and TUV as the 2 biggest parties in NI at Stormont which is not impossible on the latest poll it is hard to see powersharing ever returning, the TUV are harder line even than the DUP let alone the UUP of Trimble and SF still harder line than the SDLP of Hume.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
Like the post but isn't one of the problems here that the Taliban do not have a structure that ensures any such agreement will be honoured locally. Would you come forward to the local Taliban on that promise? These people are in an impossible position.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
While on the subject of nasty pieces of work I came across this charming story of a Brexiteer hero. Sorry it's a couple of days out of date but when even the Mail seem stunned by it's odiousness.....
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
True, which confirms the original poster @DavidL 's analysis to an extent.
Nonetheless, for all its compromises the GFA struggled along manfully until Johnson came in with his hard-Brexit boots on.
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
Difficult to see how, though. It’s not like they could rerun the setting with an infected teacher wearing a mask. Which is essentially the problem with developing the science on masks. You can demonstrate in lab setting how effective they are in reducing inhalation/exhalation of aerosol, but you can’t easily do real world tests other than look at population data - where confounding factors abound.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
Like the post but isn't one of the problems here that the Taliban do not have a structure that ensures any such agreement will be honoured locally. Would you come forward to the local Taliban on that promise? These people are in an impossible position.
It’s a problem which won’t go away. OTOH, the Sunak line is simply not feasible given the likely impending famine.
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
Like the post but isn't one of the problems here that the Taliban do not have a structure that ensures any such agreement will be honoured locally. Would you come forward to the local Taliban on that promise? These people are in an impossible position.
Yes, I asked my informant about that. The reply was that the Taliban was indeed a coalition of factions (and a couple of areas remain outside effective control) and it remained to be seen whether the central leadership would be able to assert authority. Behind the mullahs were some pretty sensible lay experts on finance and other issues, so good advice is available if doctrine doesn't prevent taking it.
We are in the odd position of hoping that someone who is hardline but not mad (Lenin rather than Stalin, so to speak) will be able to pull most people into line - which is pretty much the basis on which we deal with the Saudis. If I were a potential victim in Afghanistan hoping for a way out, I think I'd want to keep my head down for a few months to see whether that happens or not - but history suggests that Western powers have a short attention span so I wouldn't leave it too long either. Nerve-wracking either way.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Reagan wasn't a whole lot of help to Britain, and Mrs Thatch. in particular, over the Falklands as I recall, so what's his point?
Reagan supplied aviation fuel and Sidewinder missiles to the UK, the French had provided Exocets to the Argentines before the war
I am not sure, but I think you are finessing history for your own ends here. Does BEFORE need to be in capitals?
The British did provide the Argentinians with Type 42 destroyers 'BEFORE', too. Hence the big black stripe painted on the British Type 42s before they arrived in theatre.
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
If you ended up with SF and TUV as the 2 biggest parties in NI at Stormont which is not impossible on the latest poll it is hard to see powersharing ever returning, the TUV are harder line even than the DUP let alone the UUP of Trimble and SF still harder line than the SDLP of Hume.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
If the unionist vote splits 3 ways then we are going to see Alliance and SDLP and SF gains from unionists. There will be a centre/nationalist majority of MLAs elected.
While on the subject of nasty pieces of work I came across this charming story of a Brexiteer hero. Sorry it's a couple of days out of date but when even the Mail seem stunned by it's odiousness.....
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
Difficult to see how, though. It’s not like they could rerun the setting with an infected teacher wearing a mask. Which is essentially the problem with developing the science on masks. You can demonstrate in lab setting how effective they are in reducing inhalation/exhalation of aerosol, but you can’t easily do real world tests other than look at population data - where confounding factors abound.
But the Scottish study was in a position to do exactly that. So why is it not available?
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
The partition of Ireland is a historical anomaly, driven by decisions hundreds of years ago and then a political miscalculation by Carson combined with shameless manipulation and opportunism by Craig. It were better that it had never happened.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
The UK evacuation operation in Afghanistan, known as OP PITTING, has concluded. The final departure of UK troops brings to an end 20 years of presence in this troubled nation. It is hard to see how their departure is anything other than a tactical victory amid the wreckage of a strategic defeat.
Much will be written in the weeks and months to come about the operation, policy and outcomes. It is worth reflecting briefly though on the ‘hot takes’ that have emerged from the last few weeks, and what this means for the British Armed Forces and Whitehall at large.
A key positive of the operation is that it highlighted once again the strength and flexibility of the British ability to conduct strategic airlift. That multiple aircraft were quickly made available and able to operate in challenging conditions at very short notice is testament to the capability of the RAF airlift force.......
.....The final area of concern is the way in which social media can be abused on an operation to distract attention from saving lives. This author is absolutely clear in his view that the conduct of Pen Farthing was despicable, and the grandiose posturing for some dogs and cats, and the (allegedly) expletive ridden demands for attention distracted people at all levels from focusing on saving human life.
Fuck that MoD astroturfing operation. The tories have just cut 25% of the RAF's airlift capacity so they were very lucky this didn't happen a couple of years hence.
He does make that very point if you had read the post…
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
If you ended up with SF and TUV as the 2 biggest parties in NI at Stormont which is not impossible on the latest poll it is hard to see powersharing ever returning, the TUV are harder line even than the DUP let alone the UUP of Trimble and SF still harder line than the SDLP of Hume.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
If the unionist vote splits 3 ways then we are going to see Alliance and SDLP and SF gains from unionists. There will be a centre/nationalist majority of MLAs elected.
Yes, but that’s not going to help with power sharing, is it?
A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
The partition of Ireland is a historical anomaly, driven by decisions hundreds of years ago and then a political miscalculation by Carson combined with shameless manipulation and opportunism by Craig. It were better that it had never happened.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
Everything is a historical anomaly, if you want to go back far enough.
This commentator wants Biden to be one term and be replaced by strong conservative leader "with an optimistic vision for a future based on freedom, deep-seated patriotism and a willingness to lead with our allies." A modern day Reagan.
Reagan wasn't a whole lot of help to Britain, and Mrs Thatch. in particular, over the Falklands as I recall, so what's his point?
Reagan supplied aviation fuel and Sidewinder missiles to the UK, the French had provided Exocets to the Argentines before the war
'Before' is a rather key word here. The American's had supplied Argentina before the war also. In fact, although I don't know, we probably did also. You can spin yourself around in circles by including 'before' in any analysis.
Although I do agree the Exocet was rather a useful element to their package.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
If you ended up with SF and TUV as the 2 biggest parties in NI at Stormont which is not impossible on the latest poll it is hard to see powersharing ever returning, the TUV are harder line even than the DUP let alone the UUP of Trimble and SF still harder line than the SDLP of Hume.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
If the unionist vote splits 3 ways then we are going to see Alliance and SDLP and SF gains from unionists. There will be a centre/nationalist majority of MLAs elected.
Yes, but that’s not going to help with power sharing, is it?
No, but it will prompt a border poll. And then a civil war if the vote goes for reunification. Its fine for @Charles to try and abrogate blame from Worzel, its his ham-fisted fuckwittery that has opened the door to this scenario.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
The partition of Ireland is a historical anomaly, driven by decisions hundreds of years ago and then a political miscalculation by Carson combined with shameless manipulation and opportunism by Craig. It were better that it had never happened.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
Well, kind of a part of the United Kingdom. One where there are customs checks to the mainland. One where you can't freely trade with the mainland.
Mr. B, big test now for many countries, especially the US. Go along with it and just accept China's land (sea) grab, or tell them to sod off?
Tell them to sod off? Yes, let's give that a whirl.
Government Ministers and their friends and family could make an absolute killing on the provision of tin hats ( from China?) to protect us from the onslaught.
This will rapidly be a very big problem for the new regime. There is a huge cash crisis here in #Afghanistan, my father spent the whole night at door of a bank to get 100$ but unsuccessful. There are hundreds meter lines in front of the banks. https://twitter.com/AishaTaIks/status/1432202535830441984
Mr. B, big test now for many countries, especially the US. Go along with it and just accept China's land (sea) grab, or tell them to sod off?
Tell them to sod off? Yes, let's give that a whirl.
Government Ministers and their friends and family could make an absolute killing on the provision of tin hats ( from China?) to protect us from the onslaught.
I seem to remember that the MoD had run down UK productive capability so much that when it started one of the Middle East wars of recent decades, it discovered that its sole supplier of ammunition for one particular artillery equipment (can't recall if land, air or sea) was Swiss/Swedish - ergo neutral and at once stopping the supply. No idea if they have learnt that lesson.
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.
The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.
Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?
Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?
The union isn't working.
NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is
Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.
There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
There is nothing wrong with the Union and the North East gets plenty of net subsidy from London and the South East too.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
"We don't get fees cos we're part of the Union." - I can see this on the Better Together bus when the Border Poll happens.
More seriously, relative to Sindy, I detect a certain warmth from you towards the idea of Irish Reunification. Would this be fair or have I misread things very badly?
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
Define mental health. He may well be depressed as so many of us have been. Brown was a heavy user of the happy pills yet functionally seemed OK.
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
There is freedom. And there is Freedom. He's had too much of the latter.
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.
The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.
Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?
Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?
The union isn't working.
NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is
Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.
There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
There is nothing wrong with the Union and the North East gets plenty of net subsidy from London and the South East too.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
"We don't get fees cos we're part of the Union." - I can see this on the Better Together bus when the Border Poll happens.
More seriously, relative to Sindy, I detect a certain warmth from you towards the idea of Irish Reunification. Would this be fair or have I misread things very badly?
That's only because the Johnsonian solution to NI is a standing reproach to any sort of Conservative policy to preserve the UK.
Edit: And didn't HYUFD claim that the Republic had prescription fees unlike the UK? It seems to have disappeared from his post.
While on the subject of nasty pieces of work I came across this charming story of a Brexiteer hero. Sorry it's a couple of days out of date but when even the Mail seem stunned by it's odiousness.....
I don't know why "living strong and free" has to involve being odious and mouthy. Can't you live strong and free in a calm, civilized manner?
There's not much to be cheerful about (politically) these days, but it does seem as if Mr Fox's Reform Party, which campaigns on an extremist anti-woke, neo-racist, anti-vaxx, mendacious platform is not proving to be much of a success among the great British public. Hopefully he and his mates will disappear back to the gutter from whence they came in due course.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
Argue amongst yourselves
Centrist softies empathising with Gove. For the first time ever, I am too. I find myself conflicted as to which it is, partying for the Union or verging on a personal crisis.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
Define mental health. He may well be depressed as so many of us have been. Brown was a heavy user of the happy pills yet functionally seemed OK.
Er - did he?
You did see that famous expenses video, didn’t you?
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
The issue is that the EU has not shown the thoughtfulness that underpins the GFA
Similarly those who scream “the GFA is sacrosanct” are missing the point
The purpose of the GFA was to navigate between fundamental questions of identity to find a solution that allows different communities to co-exist. It was built on certain assumptions, one of which was that the RoI and the UK were part of a single market.
That is no longer the case.
There are now several options:
1. Amend the GFA to make sure the objective - peace - is achieved. Difficult but may be possible but it needs to EU to butt out and let the UK and RoI figure it out 2. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard land border - unacceptable to the Nationalist community 3. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard sea border - unacceptable to the Unionist community 4. Work collaboratively to find a technical solution to allow the GFA to continue in its current form
1&4 have the potential to be solutions. 2&3 do not.
1 - not preferred by anyone but might be possible with more capable leaders on all sides 2 - rejected by everyone 3 - insisted on by the EU as a matter of principle and tactical advantage 4 - probably the best approach even if it is non trivial
But until the EU grows up and shifts to 4 then we have a problem, Houston
The authorities in #China have today announced that for, anyone under 18 years old, they're to be limited to playing online games to only 3 hours a week! Plus only these 3 hours: 8 til 9 pm on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There will be Chinese teenagers flipping out right now!
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
The prospect of continued EU membership foundered on the rocks of fucking NHS themed wankerdom.
Mind you I know zilch about NI. other than occasionally going to Co Armagh to h*nt. It may be the NHS is regarded as the great Satan for doing abortions, and they'll be glad to be shot of it.
Abortions are now legal in the RoI, are they not?
As they are now in NI too since 2020.
Abortion was legalised in the RoI in 2018 after a referendum before the UK government legalised abortion in NI.
Note County Donegal, which borders NI in the west, was the only Irish county to vote against legalising abortion. The Catholic Church is very strong there and ironically the Catholic church and DUP cooperated in opposing abortion, the anathema of Paisley long gone.
Gay marriage was also only legalised in NI in 2020 by the UK government, gay marriage was legalised in Ireland 5 years before in 2015 after a referendum
Is that just information or are you trying to make a point?
The thought I take from it is that the RoI is considerably far ahead of the UK, as far as 'democracy' is concerned. As you've indicated several times, the UK is, as the late Viscount Hailsham pointed out many years ago, an 'elective dictatorship'.
Technically the late Lord Hailsham as he had renounced his viscountcy and been re-ermined as Hailsham of St Marylebone (rather than the Hurstmonceaux viscountcy) by the time he gave that lecture
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
The issue is that the EU has not shown the thoughtfulness that underpins the GFA
Similarly those who scream “the GFA is sacrosanct” are missing the point
The purpose of the GFA was to navigate between fundamental questions of identity to find a solution that allows different communities to co-exist. It was built on certain assumptions, one of which was that the RoI and the UK were part of a single market.
That is no longer the case.
There are now several options:
1. Amend the GFA to make sure the objective - peace - is achieved. Difficult but may be possible but it needs to EU to butt out and let the UK and RoI figure it out 2. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard land border - unacceptable to the Nationalist community 3. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard sea border - unacceptable to the Unionist community 4. Work collaboratively to find a technical solution to allow the GFA to continue in its current form
1&4 have the potential to be solutions. 2&3 do not.
1 - not preferred by anyone but might be possible with more capable leaders on all sides 2 - rejected by everyone 3 - insisted on by the EU as a matter of principle and tactical advantage 4 - probably the best approach even if it is non trivial
But until the EU grows up and shifts to 4 then we have a problem, Houston
Here we go again. In order to facilitate Johnson's oven ready deal, compromise is required from everyone else.
I remember compromise, it was called Mrs May's deal. Both Johnson and myself tossed it assunder, but for different reasons. With the benefit of hindsight I can confirm I was wrong.
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
He's clearly gone off the rails since his divorce from Noel Fielding came through.
I can't believe he was being discussed as a potential Foreign Secretary and hence in charge of MI6 last week.
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
He's clearly gone off the rails since his divorce from Noel Fielding came through.
I can't believe he was being discussed as a potential Foreign Secretary and hence in charge of MI6 last week.
It briefly crossed my mind that he was attempting to prevent (an effective) demotion to Foreign Sec.
1. The DUP effectively did not have any choice in backing Brexit or facilitating it. It’s clear that pro-Brexit voters would have chosen Brexit over keeping NI in the Union if the NI problem was seen to be blocking Brexit. So allowing the NI tail to wag the England / Wales dog was never going to happen;
2. I’m sceptical of these polls now showing such high support for a United Ireland. Wait until you get into a campaign and NI voters suddenly realise they have to pay for their GP visits and medical treatment if they become part of an United Ireland
Identity overpowers economic considerations as Brexit and Trump demonstrate.
I don't think so. People may not be sensitive to forecasts of declines in GDP per capita, but they are sure as fuck sensitive to buses which say "Let's start paying £50 a pop per GP visit if our gross income exceeds £14,000" which seems to be the case in Ireland. Killer point from @MrEd.
The prospect of a united Ireland is not going founder on the rocks of fucking GP charges. If necessary the HSE will reform (or promise to reform) the system just enough to obfuscate and neutralise the issue.
If anything's going to kill off reunification it'll be the plain fact that Northern Ireland is a very expensive pain in the backside. The voters of the Republic might be delighted to welcome into the fold the (presumably very pissed off) 40% of the Northern populace that identifies as "British only" and have their taxes shoot through the roof to keep them in the style to which they are accustomed, but I doubt it.
The North is heavily subsidised. Yes, the Republic is rich, but OTOH Great Britain is 13 times its size and can more readily shoulder the burden. Follow the money.
Which is precisely why NI should be cut free.
Why is NI a burden? Why have we contributed so much and seen so little return for it?
Why can the Republic be rich, England be rich, but NI is a backwater burden?
The union isn't working.
NI is richer than the North East of England in terms of average house price and as much a part of the UK as it is
Hence the levelling up agenda for the North, though it's worth noting that the North East does not remotely get the same funding as NI has which is money poured permanently down the drain.
There is nothing preventing NI from catching up with the Republic besides the failed union.
There is nothing wrong with the Union and the North East gets plenty of net subsidy from London and the South East too.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
"We don't get fees cos we're part of the Union." - I can see this on the Better Together bus when the Border Poll happens.
More seriously, relative to Sindy, I detect a certain warmth from you towards the idea of Irish Reunification. Would this be fair or have I misread things very badly?
No. I am a staunch Unionist and want to keep both Scotland and NI in the UK.
However there is a point that the Dublin government of FF and FG is economically right of the Johnson government let alone any future Starmer government, while clearly the current SNP and Green Holyrood government is economically left of both Johnson and Starmer.
So on that point alone joining with Dublin would make more sense for rightwingers than joining with Edinburgh
The authorities in #China have today announced that for, anyone under 18 years old, they're to be limited to playing online games to only 3 hours a week! Plus only these 3 hours: 8 til 9 pm on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There will be Chinese teenagers flipping out right now!
Pretty much every country is run by confused elderly people who are prone to moral panic, but the wild thing about China is that instead of writing outraged letters to the Daily Mail, they just delete the thing they're outraged about from the internet and arrest everybody involved.
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
Argue amongst yourselves
Perfectly easy for both to be true at once.
FWIW, my uninformed guess is that Michael Gove is more "getting on down" than "down so don't kick him".
However, good times can cause mental health and judgement issues as well. A wiser Government would have offered some compassionate leave which a wiser Govey would have accepted.
And I can't help wondering what the edgy satirical Michael Gove ("they insult your intelligence, we insult intelligently") would have made of it all.
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Because they trusted Kenny that it could be fixed. No one predicted Varadkar would be such a fucking idiot
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Because they trusted Kenny that it could be fixed. No one predicted Varadkar would be such a fucking idiot
The replacement of the DUP with the Ulster Unionists is presumably good news for Boris as the latter are much closer to the Conservative party than the former. What we now need is the SDLP to revive against Sinn Fein but there is very little evidence of that yet. One of the major failures of the GFA was the way both communities seemed driven to the extremes to protect their interests. A reverse of that trend would be welcome.
So the GFA was a "failure" as it allowed both communities to be driven to extremes to protect their interests?
Well the two communities weren't exactly getting on like a house on fire before were they?
The GFA was not a "failure" until Brexit. How foolish of the authors not to envisage Brexit.
The GFA was not perfect by any means, but it was a series of compromises that allowed polar opposites like Paisley and McGuinness to work together, of a fashion for some of the time, to create something from the ashes of the troubles.
The GFA allowed people to paint kerbstones, put up murals and march around in orange without too much offence to the other side, but Brexit? Brexit (and a UKIP Brexit at that) forced the UK Government to choose between the extreme interests. A land border at Dundalk or a border in the Irish Sea/North Channel. Now, one or other extreme interest was inevitably going to be disappointed.
Don’t forget that the architects of the GFA - Trimble and Hume - saw their parties destroyed. That wasn’t a positive outcome from GFA - but it was predictable as voters are rational
If you ended up with SF and TUV as the 2 biggest parties in NI at Stormont which is not impossible on the latest poll it is hard to see powersharing ever returning, the TUV are harder line even than the DUP let alone the UUP of Trimble and SF still harder line than the SDLP of Hume.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
If the unionist vote splits 3 ways then we are going to see Alliance and SDLP and SF gains from unionists. There will be a centre/nationalist majority of MLAs elected.
No we are not.
Are you completely ignorant of the Stormont electoral process? Stormont is entirely PR STV, there is not a single seat elected in Stormont under FPTP unlike Holyrood or Westminster.
In fact at the last 2017 Stormont elections SF and the SDLP got 39.8% combined and the DUP and UUP and TUV got 43.6% combined and the Alliance got 9.1%.
On the latest poll at the top of this thread SF and the SDLP are only on 38% combined, the UUP and TUV and UUP are still on 43% combined and the Alliance are up to 13%.
So if anything the Stormont elections next year will see the Unionist parties combined and the Alliance make gains from the Nationalist parties
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
He's clearly gone off the rails since his divorce from Noel Fielding came through.
I can't believe he was being discussed as a potential Foreign Secretary and hence in charge of MI6 last week.
It briefly crossed my mind that he was attempting to prevent (an effective) demotion to Foreign Sec.
Had an interesting chat with a well-connected person (no, not Hunt) about options for Taliban negotiations. A key issue, as with Iran, is that we're sitting on a lump of cash (£1 billion or so) which we accept belongs to Afghanistan, but which we won't release except as part of a deal (the Americans have the same situation but with £10 billion). Afghan National Bank reserves accessible to them come to about £1 billion.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
British banks are absolutely safe.
I recall a charming story about how the Republic of Estonia deposited three cases of gold in a British bank in the early 1920s.
The Soviets tried to reclaim it several times post occupation but were rebuffed… in 1991 the bank in question wrote to the new President of the Republic to request instruction…
Kicking a man when he's down? Not sure about that. Gove looks to be having the time of his life in the video Campbell refers to.
And I'm not really sure that "Please tell me this is a deep fake done by the Russians to undermine credibility in our government, our politics and our way of life" amounts to kicking a man when he is down.
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
Difficult to see how, though. It’s not like they could rerun the setting with an infected teacher wearing a mask. Which is essentially the problem with developing the science on masks. You can demonstrate in lab setting how effective they are in reducing inhalation/exhalation of aerosol, but you can’t easily do real world tests other than look at population data - where confounding factors abound.
But the Scottish study was in a position to do exactly that. So why is it not available?
I’ve no idea, as I haven’t read anything about it. There’s a large meta study here, which demonstrates (limited) effectiveness for masks. Recent stuff I’ve read suggests that very good ventilation (basically having all your windows open) has a greater effect.
Mass mask-wearing notably reduces COVID-19 transmission https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1 … Investigating the inconsistency within epidemiological studies, we find that a commonly used proxy, government mask mandates, does not correlate with large increases in mask-wearing in our window of analysis. We thus analyse the effect of mask-wearing on transmission instead, drawing on several datasets covering 92 regions on 6 continents, including the largest survey of individual-level wearing behaviour (n=20 million) [7]. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate the effect of both mask-wearing and mask-mandates on transmission by linking wearing levels (or mandates) to reported cases in each region, adjusting for mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
We assess the robustness of our results in 123 experiments spanning 22 sensitivity analyses. Across these analyses, we find that an entire population wearing masks in public leads to a median reduction in the reproduction number R of 25.8%, with 95% of the medians between 22.2% and 30.9%. In our window of analysis, the median reduction in R associated with the wearing level observed in each region was 20.4% [2.0%, 23.3%]1. We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates...
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Not just Tory MPs: Secretary of State as well. Karen Bradley, in 2018 (after Brexit, but before any deal was done):
"I didn't understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa."
To be fair, Julian Smith did seem to understand the issues. So he was sacked after six months.
It’s poorly expressed but what she is saying is that she didn’t appreciate the overriding salience of the nationalist/unionist issue. Unless you have studied NI that’s not an unreasonable lacuna
Bringing two topics together, Gove’s —- ?crisis —- is additionally worrying in that he’s about the only sentient member of Cabinet and certainly the only one who is thinking about the Union.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
If Govey wants to go out on the razz fuelled by marching powder to embrace young gentlemen then good for him. He's been stuck in a lie for long enough, let the man live.
I am very much live and let live.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
Define mental health. He may well be depressed as so many of us have been. Brown was a heavy user of the happy pills yet functionally seemed OK.
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
There is freedom. And there is Freedom. He's had too much of the latter.
That's a good point. Based on direct personal experience - and rather too much of it - when you end up partaking of 'late night into early morning' activity in office garb it wasn't the plan to start off with.
I re-watched Charlie Wilson's War recently which claims to be the true story of how one Congressman was responsible for booting the Russians out of Afghanistan and if it wasn't for the recent harrowing scenes they could certainly be forgiven a quiet chuckle
I don't get the "pleading" by Williamson over schoolkids to parents regarding Covid when the government has denied them a vaccine that would decrease transmissibilty over the summer hols ?????
Why what has he said? Perhaps he might want to consider his own "there is no risk, abolish the bubbles" command to schools.
He’s been reminding parents to get their children to do LFTs.
At least, in fairness, he hasn’t been quite as mad as John Swinney who wants to keep everyone in masks. He says there is a ‘compelling case’ but strangely I still haven’t seen any sign of that study on their effectiveness that he commissioned a year ago.
Considering that pox cases once again soared as schools went back it makes absolute sense to keep them in masks at least for an initial period. My son's high school has more buses than many small towns, bringing kids in from a wide catchment area. Its no wonder that schools are a brilliant transmission nexus.
So where is the actual evidence that they help? A study was commissioned last November to examine the case. Why has he not published it?
Masks are usually not worn correctly in any case, and they make teaching and learning very, very hard as well as being uncomfortable and unpleasant for the students.
Before he makes such a drastic decision he should be providing the evidence he has gathered. Why has has he not done so?
(If he has, please let me know because I’ve been trying to get hold of a copy for months.)
I'm not saying its a good option! Masks either work or they don't work. The consensus is that masks help stop the spread hence the mandatory use of masks we've all endured.
The alternative for schools isn't any better. Staff absence and kids not being taught at all as Covid rips back through schools and then back through the villages in their catchment area.
My point is that whether there is a consensus on this or not, he should have actual evidence to support his contention. This evidence was to be gathered as the result o of a proper scientific investigation that he - sensibly for once - commissioned ten months ago.
There should also be ample data given schools in England abandoned wearing masks while schools in Scotland retained them. Therefore giving two substantial samples to draw on.
So - where is it?
Again, if anyone does know where it is, please let me have a link because it’s really important on some work I’m doing for both my school and my union around the impact of mask wearing.
But if it hasn’t been published, all he’s doing is placebo bullshit. Trying to make people think Covid will be kept under control by wearing a piece of paper incorrectly isn’t really helpful given masks are in themselves such a very bad thing.
If I’ve time, I’ll try to dig something up for you. Ten months ago was of course prior to Delta, which will have changed all the calculations.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
Thanks. Although not perhaps especially helpful in a school context in the UK given our different testing regime.
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
Difficult to see how, though. It’s not like they could rerun the setting with an infected teacher wearing a mask. Which is essentially the problem with developing the science on masks. You can demonstrate in lab setting how effective they are in reducing inhalation/exhalation of aerosol, but you can’t easily do real world tests other than look at population data - where confounding factors abound.
But the Scottish study was in a position to do exactly that. So why is it not available?
I’ve no idea, as I haven’t read anything about it. There’s a large meta study here, which demonstrates (limited) effectiveness for masks. Recent stuff I’ve read suggests that very good ventilation (basically having all your windows open) has a greater effect.
Mass mask-wearing notably reduces COVID-19 transmission https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1 … Investigating the inconsistency within epidemiological studies, we find that a commonly used proxy, government mask mandates, does not correlate with large increases in mask-wearing in our window of analysis. We thus analyse the effect of mask-wearing on transmission instead, drawing on several datasets covering 92 regions on 6 continents, including the largest survey of individual-level wearing behaviour (n=20 million) [7]. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate the effect of both mask-wearing and mask-mandates on transmission by linking wearing levels (or mandates) to reported cases in each region, adjusting for mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
We assess the robustness of our results in 123 experiments spanning 22 sensitivity analyses. Across these analyses, we find that an entire population wearing masks in public leads to a median reduction in the reproduction number R of 25.8%, with 95% of the medians between 22.2% and 30.9%. In our window of analysis, the median reduction in R associated with the wearing level observed in each region was 20.4% [2.0%, 23.3%]1. We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates...
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Not just Tory MPs: Secretary of State as well. Karen Bradley, in 2018 (after Brexit, but before any deal was done):
"I didn't understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa."
To be fair, Julian Smith did seem to understand the issues. So he was sacked after six months.
It’s poorly expressed but what she is saying is that she didn’t appreciate the overriding salience of the nationalist/unionist issue. Unless you have studied NI that’s not an unreasonable lacuna
"Unless you have studied NI" or watched the news or read a paper or been sufficiently interested in politics to have become an MP... Seriously?
Mr. Pete, aye, it was difficult and has been poorly handled by multiple UK governments.
However.
The 2007 referendum on Lisbon should've been held. Integrating endlessly without recourse to the electorate because the main parties all agreed with one another led to the rise of UKIP and then a referendum on the nuclear option rather than binning a referendum (about which we'd been promised a referendum by all major UK parties, a promise subsequently reneged upon by two of the three).
If the UK political class had bothered to either address the concerns of the electorate or make a case for the EU (in addition to not making manifesto pledges then breaking them immediately) we'd be in a better state of affairs.
I don't dispute your final paragraph, but that relates to Brexit as a separate issue. I agree forty years of UK Governments of all stripes blaming the EU for their failures led us to Brexit, but we are where we are with that.
My point was that those promoting the notion of leaving the EU ignored Northern Ireland, and then after the event blamed the inevitable issues Brexit would raise on the GFA. This is a particularly handy device for Johnson apologists.
It is disingenuous of Johnson apologists to blame the GFA in hindsight for the inevitability of a border in the sea, when a UKIP- style Brexit was determined by Johnson over twenty years later.
Absolutely right. The Brexiters poohpoohed the idea that the GFA and NI comprised a major issue. Possibly because they still thought Ireland was in the UK and could be ordered around, on at least one occasion witj the threat of An Gorta Mor Mark 2. Some of the comments at the time from Tory MPs did give the impresson some of them were a century or more out in their understanding of the political geography of the Isles of Ireland and Britain.
Not just Tory MPs: Secretary of State as well. Karen Bradley, in 2018 (after Brexit, but before any deal was done):
"I didn't understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa."
To be fair, Julian Smith did seem to understand the issues. So he was sacked after six months.
It’s poorly expressed but what she is saying is that she didn’t appreciate the overriding salience of the nationalist/unionist issue. Unless you have studied NI that’s not an unreasonable lacuna
Seriously? You think that appointing somebody as Secretary of State for NI who doesn't appreciate the salience of the nationalist/unionist issue is not an unreasonable lacuna? It's not even specialist knowledge that needs to be studied. It's general knowledge. I'd be disappointed if any MP didn't know that. For the SoS not to know it is pretty shocking.
A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
The partition of Ireland is a historical anomaly, driven by decisions hundreds of years ago and then a political miscalculation by Carson combined with shameless manipulation and opportunism by Craig. It were better that it had never happened.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
Everything is a historical anomaly, if you want to go back far enough.
Mine was a serious point.
Carson didn’t want Partition - he thought he could use Ulster opposition to prevent independence for RoI as a whole.
A united Ireland makes sense on a number of points, but occasionally people stumble into arguing for it on the basis that both current entities are in the same island so should be together or words to that effect, which I doubt they hold consistently for other islands like hispaniola, new guinea or Britain, as if islands are required to have unified politics.
The partition of Ireland is a historical anomaly, driven by decisions hundreds of years ago and then a political miscalculation by Carson combined with shameless manipulation and opportunism by Craig. It were better that it had never happened.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
Well, kind of a part of the United Kingdom. One where there are customs checks to the mainland. One where you can't freely trade with the mainland.
It’s not a sustainable situation - see my other post
Comments
Nile Gardiner is a British conservative commentator, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
Regarding classroom spread, this is an interesting paper, which I posted a couple of days back:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e2.htm
On May 25, 2021, the Marin County Department of Public Health (MCPH) was notified by an elementary school that on May 23, an unvaccinated teacher had reported receiving a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The teacher reported becoming symptomatic on May 19, but continued to work for 2 days before receiving a test on May 21. On occasion during this time, the teacher read aloud unmasked to the class despite school requirements to mask while indoors. Beginning May 23, additional cases of COVID-19 were reported among other staff members, students, parents, and siblings connected to the school. To characterize the outbreak, on May 26, MCPH initiated case investigation and contact tracing that included whole genome sequencing (WGS) of available specimens. A total of 27 cases were identified, including that of the teacher. During May 23–26, among the teacher’s 24 students, 22 students, all ineligible for vaccination because of age, received testing for SARS-CoV-2; 12 received positive test results. The attack rate in the two rows seated closest to the teacher’s desk was 80% (eight of 10) and was 28% (four of 14) in the three back rows…
(Note, if the school had been using lateral flow tests twice a week, this would likely have been avoided.)
One thing that does interest me in that report is how the link to unmasking is implicit, but only in one sentence and not followed up.
So in principle we could foresee a deal whereby we got everyone out who we want and a guarantee of a crackdown on ISIS-K (both of which seem achievable) in return for a gradual release to them of their own money. Cost to Britain would be £0, and it would avoid the unfortunate impression that depositing money in British banks is not safe if the politics change. On the other hand, it seems fairly certain that the Taliban regime will be extremely oppressive, especially for women, even if not quite the insanity of some of their actions as an insurgency. So do we want to deal any deal with them tghat involved releasing any money, or do we want them to collapse - and perhaps create a vacuum filled with angry terror groups? Apparently, Government opinion is divided, with Sunak favouring a hard line - no deals, total sanctions - and Raab and Wallace favouring a stick and carrot approach. Johnson's view is not yet clear. The US is potentially open-minded, but unlike Britain they have a hardline opposition waiting to call them soft on terror.
FWIW I think willingness to explore deals is sensible, coupled with observation of how things develop when the Taliban government finally sees the light of day (ETA September 1).
Just a question of whether the coalition he heads is SPD-FDP-Green or SPD-Union-Green or SPD-Green-Linke
The statement made however read like it could have been straight out of the Chair of Epping Forest Conservatives' campaign textbook... whoever that night be.
"I didn't understand things like when elections are fought, for example, in Northern Ireland – people who are nationalists don’t vote for unionist parties and vice versa."
To be fair, Julian Smith did seem to understand the issues. So he was sacked after six months.
There is no version of reality the Brexiteers were ever willing to accept, and no version of their fantasy they were willing to abandon.
Twice weekly LFTs are pretty effective, as they pick up infectious individuals whether or not they are symptomatic.
Validation of an At-Home Direct Antigen Rapid Test for COVID-19
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2783550
We sought to validate the effectiveness of DART and to test whether at-home testing with DART could prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a coworking environment. In this cohort study of 257 individuals who collected 2951 sample pairs over the course of 6 months, we found that twice-weekly surveillance with DART detected infections in 15 individuals, with 96.3% sensitivity on days 0 through 3 of symptoms. Detection on day 3 is almost as effective as detection on day 1 for reducing the incidence of COVID-19, if 75% of a population is surveilled.6 The prevalence of disease dictates the frequency of testing and its effectiveness for controlling potential outbreaks. Limitations of this study include low infection rates among the study population. During this study, the prevalence of COVID-19 was between less than 1% and 8%.
Use of twice-weekly DART testing allowed the activities of the coworking sites to continue safely during the pandemic. Most of the positive participants reported that they did not recognize symptoms of COVID-19 until they received a positive result. Policies that rely on self-reported symptoms miss or delay detection and allow viral spread within communities...
Of course it needs everyone to use them.
Very effective in small workplaces where having more than one person off can be seriously damaging to the business. Getting a class of thirty reliably to participate is another matter.
The Republic has lower taxes than the UK but also has charges for hospital visits etc unlike the UK
The problem with "if we leave the EU you will suffer leprosy of the genitals and the island of Great Britain will sink beneath the waves" is that it crosses the boundary from "Oh no!" to "Yeah, right."
Could be a keeper for inclusion in any post about government policy.
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1431882213449035787
Vessels from foreign countries, including submersibles, nuclear vessels, entering Chinese territorial sea shall be required to report info such as their name, current position and next port of call to China’s maritime administration starting September 1.
How China defines “Chinese territorial sea”…
Why is this problematic?
Art. 2 of PRC's 1992 Law on Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone states “territorial sea refers to the waters adjacent to its territorial land. The PRC's territorial land includes the mainland and its offshore islands, Taiwan and the various…”
https://twitter.com/JeffreyOrdaniel/status/1432020813188714497
The north may receive money from central Government but at best it's the same as London rx get and usually way worse.
So there would have to be direct joint rule from Dublin and Westminster indefinitely until the political makeup changed again, the GFA as was would effectively be over
It was the French who went all in with Mirage III DACT and the DGSE helping to disrupt AM-39 procurement.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9932245/Laurence-Fox-defends-racism-accusations-Twitter-spat-Benjamin-Mendy-rape.html
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1432034362342715396?s=21
Nonetheless, for all its compromises the GFA struggled along manfully until Johnson came in with his hard-Brexit boots on.
It’s not like they could rerun the setting with an infected teacher wearing a mask.
Which is essentially the problem with developing the science on masks. You can demonstrate in lab setting how effective they are in reducing inhalation/exhalation of aerosol, but you can’t easily do real world tests other than look at population data - where confounding factors abound.
OTOH, the Sunak line is simply not feasible given the likely impending famine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u53VsWuPGg
We are in the odd position of hoping that someone who is hardline but not mad (Lenin rather than Stalin, so to speak) will be able to pull most people into line - which is pretty much the basis on which we deal with the Saudis. If I were a potential victim in Afghanistan hoping for a way out, I think I'd want to keep my head down for a few months to see whether that happens or not - but history suggests that Western powers have a short attention span so I wouldn't leave it too long either. Nerve-wracking either way.
It may even be that the slow failure of Brexit is contributing to his mental health issues.
Unfortunately we are where we are - unless and until our brothers and sisters in the North chose differently they remain part of the United kingdom (which is why @Philip_Thompson ‘s approach - “good riddance” - is so inappropriate)
Although I do agree the Exocet was rather a useful element to their package.
But you and I are both old enough in the tooth though to recognise mental health issues when we see them.
What we don’t know yet is whether it will be the DUP, UUP, TUV.
All are pledged to reject somehow the now totemically hated Northern Ireland Protocol. None have any time for Boris and the Tories.
There is a huge cash crisis here in #Afghanistan, my father spent the whole night at door of a bank to get 100$ but unsuccessful. There are hundreds meter lines in front of the banks.
https://twitter.com/AishaTaIks/status/1432202535830441984
More seriously, relative to Sindy, I detect a certain warmth from you towards the idea of Irish Reunification. Would this be fair or have I misread things very badly?
TBH the thing that really made me goggle is that its the early hours and he's off his tits wearing a suit. I'd love to wind the clock back to the previous day - at which point did his politics need to be wearing a suit on a Saturday turn into "lets go to O'Neills" then into "lets line them up" and then "aren't you a lovely pair of young men"
There is freedom. And there is Freedom. He's had too much of the latter.
Edit: And didn't HYUFD claim that the Republic had prescription fees unlike the UK? It seems to have disappeared from his post.
You did see that famous expenses video, didn’t you?
Similarly those who scream “the GFA is sacrosanct” are missing the point
The purpose of the GFA was to navigate between fundamental questions of identity to find a solution that allows different communities to co-exist. It was built on certain assumptions, one of which was that the RoI and the UK were part of a single market.
That is no longer the case.
There are now several options:
1. Amend the GFA to make sure the objective - peace - is achieved. Difficult but may be possible but it needs to EU to butt out and let the UK and RoI figure it out
2. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard land border - unacceptable to the Nationalist community
3. Refuse to adjust the EU rules (which is their right) and insist on a hard sea border - unacceptable to the Unionist community
4. Work collaboratively to find a technical solution to allow the GFA to continue in its current form
1&4 have the potential to be solutions. 2&3 do not.
1 - not preferred by anyone but might be possible with more capable leaders on all sides
2 - rejected by everyone
3 - insisted on by the EU as a matter of principle and tactical advantage
4 - probably the best approach even if it is non trivial
But until the EU grows up and shifts to 4 then we have a problem, Houston
The authorities in #China have today announced that for, anyone under 18 years old, they're to be limited to playing online games to only 3 hours a week! Plus only these 3 hours: 8 til 9 pm on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There will be Chinese teenagers flipping out right now!
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1432277087830908931?s=20
I remember compromise, it was called Mrs May's deal. Both Johnson and myself tossed it assunder, but for different reasons. With the benefit of hindsight I can confirm I was wrong.
I can't believe he was being discussed as a potential Foreign Secretary and hence in charge of MI6 last week.
But surely even Gove isn’t that Machiavellian.
However there is a point that the Dublin government of FF and FG is economically right of the Johnson government let alone any future Starmer government, while clearly the current SNP and Green Holyrood government is economically left of both Johnson and Starmer.
So on that point alone joining with Dublin would make more sense for rightwingers than joining with Edinburgh
https://www.marketing-interactive.com/chinese-actress-zhao-wei-scrubbed-off-from-social-and-media-platform?utm_source=newsletter_51&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20210830_hong_kong_daily_bulletin_
Pretty much every country is run by confused elderly people who are prone to moral panic, but the wild thing about China is that instead of writing outraged letters to the Daily Mail, they just delete the thing they're outraged about from the internet and arrest everybody involved.
FWIW, my uninformed guess is that Michael Gove is more "getting on down" than "down so don't kick him".
However, good times can cause mental health and judgement issues as well. A wiser Government would have offered some compassionate leave which a wiser Govey would have accepted.
And I can't help wondering what the edgy satirical Michael Gove ("they insult your intelligence, we insult intelligently") would have made of it all.
Are you completely ignorant of the Stormont electoral process? Stormont is entirely PR STV, there is not a single seat elected in Stormont under FPTP unlike Holyrood or Westminster.
In fact at the last 2017 Stormont elections SF and the SDLP got 39.8% combined and the DUP and UUP and TUV got 43.6% combined and the Alliance got 9.1%.
On the latest poll at the top of this thread SF and the SDLP are only on 38% combined, the UUP and TUV and UUP are still on 43% combined and the Alliance are up to 13%.
So if anything the Stormont elections next year will see the Unionist parties combined and the Alliance make gains from the Nationalist parties
I recall a charming story about how the Republic of Estonia deposited three cases of gold in a British bank in the early 1920s.
The Soviets tried to reclaim it several times post occupation but were rebuffed… in 1991 the bank in question wrote to the new President of the Republic to request instruction…
There’s a large meta study here, which demonstrates (limited) effectiveness for masks.
Recent stuff I’ve read suggests that very good ventilation (basically having all your windows open) has a greater effect.
Mass mask-wearing notably reduces COVID-19 transmission
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1
… Investigating the inconsistency within epidemiological studies, we find that a commonly used proxy, government mask mandates, does not correlate with large increases in mask-wearing in our window of analysis. We thus analyse the effect of mask-wearing on transmission instead, drawing on several datasets covering 92 regions on 6 continents, including the largest survey of individual-level wearing behaviour (n=20 million) [7]. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate the effect of both mask-wearing and mask-mandates on transmission by linking wearing levels (or mandates) to reported cases in each region, adjusting for mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
We assess the robustness of our results in 123 experiments spanning 22 sensitivity analyses. Across these analyses, we find that an entire population wearing masks in public leads to a median reduction in the reproduction number R of 25.8%, with 95% of the medians between 22.2% and 30.9%. In our window of analysis, the median reduction in R associated with the wearing level observed in each region was 20.4% [2.0%, 23.3%]1. We do not find evidence that mandating mask-wearing reduces transmission. Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates...
You just take a brand new aircraft carrier and sail through the disputed waters
Carson didn’t want Partition - he thought he could use Ulster opposition to prevent independence for RoI as a whole.
Craig screwed him for his own personal gain.
Though our doing that is no more than a gesture. It's what the US and it's regional allies do that counts.