politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With 17 months to go the Scottish #IndyRef YES appears to h
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@ Sir H
"Alan Brooke - the Germans are quickly realising that the FTT is about as welcome as Miliband as PM - a ghastly prospect which would be ruinous for the economy."
Colour me sceptical Sir H. If it comes to Germany giving in to France or or giving in to the UK on the FTT it will be snails all round I'm afraid.
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ahhhhhhh.Alanbrooke said:
"Cross-referendumising here" - no I was referring to Scotland.TOPPING said:
Cross-referendumising here, I think DC is sitting pretty on the EU referendum. His job is to provide an EU referendum which he has told us (face to camera) will occur if he's PM. He then says fine, I want to stay in (assuming he does, the "negotiations" go ok-ish which he will say they have). So he has paid the voters the compliment of consulting them and is entitled to his own point of view. Job done political superstardom.Alanbrooke said:
can Cameron ?TOPPING said:The question is can A Salmond stay at the helm after the inevitable "IN" vote to negotiate the extra concessions from Westminster?
On Scotland - whilst understandably keen not to lose part of the country he was in charge of, if he is sensible, he will keep quiet and let the various discussions re. currencies, trade zones, etc play themselves out. Of course the result is foregone so his job is not to antagonise anyone in the meantime so he can look magnanimous when he then gives Scotland the right to set minimum banana curve parameters, or whatever.
And yes, yes, I know - you think he should ditch Osborne....
Post Sept 14 there will still need to be a renegotiation of powers amid the wider issue of proper devolution for England. By that stage all the main parties will be in GE mode so nothing much will move until we get new govt.
Currently I see more Chance of Salmond being sat at the negotiating table than Cameron. So it will be another Labour mess\stitch up on England.
Well then yes, I agree. Then again the Labour PM (gasp at the thought) will be at his most powerful so there is an outside chance he will not be as roll-over as Cam would have had to be...
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Time for a federal settlement. Each of the constituent countries to get parliaments of equal powers.Alanbrooke said:
"Cross-referendumising here" - no I was referring to Scotland.
Post Sept 14 there will still need to be a renegotiation of powers amid the wider issue of proper devolution for England. By that stage all the main parties will be in GE mode so nothing much will move until we get new govt.
Currently I see more Chance of Salmond being sat at the negotiating table than Cameron. So it will be another Labour mess\stitch up on England.0 -
@Richard_Tyndall:
Nationals of EU/EEA/EFTA countries don’t need to apply for a residence permit but must register online on the internet. Once you have registered online, you must go to your nearest police station. If you live in a districte with a Service Senter for Foreign Workers you need to meet in person here.You must take along a valid identity card or a passport and proof of employment that is in accordance with the provisions of the Working Environment Act.
Once you have registered, you will be issued a registration certificate. This certificate is issued free of charge and is valid indefinitely (i.e. you do not need to renew it).
http://www.nyinorge.no/en/Ny-i-Norge-velg-sprak/New-in-Norway/Residence/Permits/Work-permits-for-third-country-nationals/
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That has only changed very recently since just over 2 years ago I was stopped at Stavanger airport for having failed to renew my work/residence permit. They were very nice about it as it was just an oversight but it still meant a delay whilst sorting it all out at the police station.RichardNabavi said:@Richard_Tyndall:
Nationals of EU/EEA/EFTA countries don’t need to apply for a residence permit but must register online on the internet. Once you have registered online, you must go to your nearest police station. If you live in a districte with a Service Senter for Foreign Workers you need to meet in person here.You must take along a valid identity card or a passport and proof of employment that is in accordance with the provisions of the Working Environment Act.
Once you have registered, you will be issued a registration certificate. This certificate is issued free of charge and is valid indefinitely (i.e. you do not need to renew it).
http://www.nyinorge.no/en/Ny-i-Norge-velg-sprak/New-in-Norway/Residence/Permits/Work-permits-for-third-country-nationals/
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@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.0
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The reality is that membership of either the EEA or a bilateral treaty would be far better than the present situation. Labour's "mainplank" of helping working class people has far less of a coherent policy platform, yet I somehow doubt you'd say their polling support is a matter of state of mind. But then the cultural norms of your socioeconomic group aren't instinctively anti-Labour.antifrank said:Well, it's good to see it confirmed that UKIP doesn't really have a coherent policy on its purported mainplank.
It's central to understanding UKIP's current polling ratings that it is a state of mind rather than a political party.
I understand your frustration, however. You must still be reeling that the policy of leaving the EU, which you've previously said is a loopy position, has now been backed by a former Defence Secretary and a former Chancellor. You now have the prospect of the debate being based on the merits of argument rather than marginalisation of opponents. I appreciate that's a lot weaker ground for your side.0 -
Also note you have to have proof of employment and once you no longer have employment you have to leave. Rather different to the EU.RichardNabavi said:@Richard_Tyndall:
Nationals of EU/EEA/EFTA countries don’t need to apply for a residence permit but must register online on the internet. Once you have registered online, you must go to your nearest police station. If you live in a districte with a Service Senter for Foreign Workers you need to meet in person here.You must take along a valid identity card or a passport and proof of employment that is in accordance with the provisions of the Working Environment Act.
Once you have registered, you will be issued a registration certificate. This certificate is issued free of charge and is valid indefinitely (i.e. you do not need to renew it).
http://www.nyinorge.no/en/Ny-i-Norge-velg-sprak/New-in-Norway/Residence/Permits/Work-permits-for-third-country-nationals/0 -
There must be more English language tutors around than Hungarian?antifrank said:@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.
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If we were out of the EU but in the EEA would we still have to pay the EU 18 billion p.a. in protection money?0
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Your argument is that immigration has been so huge in numbers that it's now nearly impossible to take effective steps to integrate them?antifrank said:@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.
I would tend to agree.0 -
That just proves there are too many immigrants!antifrank said:@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.
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@Socrates What is loopy is fetishising wanting to leave the EU, regarding that as the paramount political objective of our times, but not having the foggiest notion what should be done instead.0
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I doubt it - they have filed Hollande under Miliband (basketcase) - there is no way the Franco-German alliance is worth peeving Siemens etc al.Alanbrooke said:@ Sir H
"Alan Brooke - the Germans are quickly realising that the FTT is about as welcome as Miliband as PM - a ghastly prospect which would be ruinous for the economy."
Colour me sceptical Sir H. If it comes to Germany giving in to France or or giving in to the UK on the FTT it will be snails all round I'm afraid.
Also
David Smith @dsmitheconomics 32m
National Institute - NIESR - estimates that GDP grew by 0.8% in the three months to April, helped by bounce from very weak January.0 -
What price would anyone like to give me that a country never previously considered to be in Europe will one day be a member of the EU?
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Which as others have just pointed out rather proves the point that we have let things get out of hand and should start to deal with the issue. Or are you content to have tens of thousands of immigrants coming into the country who have no intention of being able to speak English?antifrank said:@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.
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The problem is demand rather than supply. Though I wish I could find a good Hungarian language tutor who is patient with irredeemable monoglots.Sunil_Prasannan said:
There must be more English language tutors around than Hungarian?antifrank said:@RichardNabavi @Richard_Tyndall Good luck in getting all the English language tutors together that you'd need to inculcate all of Britain's immigrants in 300 hours of compulsory English language lessons.
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A FTT will only work with global agreement. Unilateral implementation by the EU isn't really a serious intent.Alanbrooke said:@ Sir H
"Alan Brooke - the Germans are quickly realising that the FTT is about as welcome as Miliband as PM - a ghastly prospect which would be ruinous for the economy."
Colour me sceptical Sir H. If it comes to Germany giving in to France or or giving in to the UK on the FTT it will be snails all round I'm afraid.
Now we have to decide whether politicians around the world will turn down a feasible and reliable new source of tax revenue. I have my doubts.
This especially applies when economists are arguing that the "winner takes all" gap between the beneficiaries of globalised capitalism and its paymasters is becoming unsustainable.
This post from an economics journalist buried deep in the comments on The Atlantic article on Spain (linked here a few threads back) caught my eye:
Generally speaking, shifting the tax burden from the rich and corporations to the rest of us leads to wage stagnation and most of the benefits of growth going to the rich. In the 1950s, corporations paid about $3 in taxes to each dollar of taxes on wages. Now its about 22 cents of corporate taxes to every dollar of wage taxes.
A FTT can be very easily sold as a populist policy to redress this imbalance. Expect George Osborne's strong opposition to turn to universal praise when or if the US comes onside.
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Just catching up with the previous thread:
In terms of its impact on GE2015 a 17% Ukip share still falls some way short of what’s required to win a seat.
Yet in Kent UKIP are in poll position after the county council elections to take Thanet North, Thanet South and Sittingbourne and Sheppey where they won the popular vote. They are neck and neck after the elections with the Tories in Folkestone,and Tunbridge Wells and for the want of another candidate (there was no UKIP candidate standing in Dover North) could have been neck and neck in Dover as well (which could potentially become a three-way marginal with Labour) .
UKIP are even further ahead in the popular vote in Boston & Skegness in Lincolnshire. than in any of the Kent seats so that could provide them with an MP as well and there are potentially other seats such as Gt Yarmouth which I've yet to look at.
It is ironic that up until the county council elections the charges against UKIP on here were that they did not have a council base and their support was not concentrated in any areas. Now of course they have achieved both. It is clear that the eastern coastal and agriucultural counties of England are potential heartlands for UKIP (unsurprising as these are currently Tory heartlands) and yet certain commentators who will remain nameless ignore this and instead now peddle bland assertions seemingly based on the highly inaccurate UNS.
Anyway a thread on Scotland [YAWN] so I have gardening to do. Toodles0 -
sorry, don't buy it. Just last week they gave France a 2 year extension on its budgert deficit something no other Eurozone country would be offered. currentlt they're trying to get France to address reforms in the 2 year window, but everyone knows that's the triumph of hope over experience.TGOHF said:
I doubt it - they have filed Hollande under Miliband (basketcase) - there is no way the Franco-German alliance is worth peeving Siemens etc al.Alanbrooke said:@ Sir H
"Alan Brooke - the Germans are quickly realising that the FTT is about as welcome as Miliband as PM - a ghastly prospect which would be ruinous for the economy."
Colour me sceptical Sir H. If it comes to Germany giving in to France or or giving in to the UK on the FTT it will be snails all round I'm afraid.
Also
David Smith @dsmitheconomics 32m
National Institute - NIESR - estimates that GDP grew by 0.8% in the three months to April, helped by bounce from very weak January.0 -
YouGov poll on the independence referendum :
How convincing a case, if at all, do you think the No campaign have made to persuade
you that Scotland would gain more devolved powers if there was a No vote in the
referendum?
TOTAL CONVINCING 33%
TOTAL NOT VERY/AT ALL CONVINCING 47%
Should the anti-independence campaign return Ian Taylor's £500,000 donation?
Yes 43%
No 34%0 -
That would be a shark jumping moment leading to a sub 25% blue share.AveryLP said:Alanbrooke said:@ Sir H
"Alan Brooke - the Germans are quickly realising that the FTT is about as welcome as Miliband as PM - a ghastly prospect which would be ruinous for the economy."
Colour me sceptical Sir H. If it comes to Germany giving in to France or or giving in to the UK on the FTT it will be snails all round I'm afraid.
A FTT can be very easily sold as a populist policy to redress this imbalance. Expect George Osborne's strong opposition to turn to universal praise when or if the US comes onside.0 -
Such a shame that the SNP are doing such a terrible job in advocating independence that even 17% of their own voters do not want independence. Whereas the SNP political strategists regularly post on this website with their views on how bad the UK Govt parties are at political strategy. Beams and motes?0
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You're arguing with a strawman. The pathology is clearly on your side when you get so emotional about the subject that you have to throw out words like "fetishising".antifrank said:@Socrates What is loopy is fetishising wanting to leave the EU, regarding that as the paramount political objective of our times, but not having the foggiest notion what should be done instead.
Leaving the EU is not the final objective. It is just a necessary step to be able to take other steps to improve Britain's economy and society. It's also a complete lie to talk about eurosceptics "not having the foggiest notion" on what should be done: there are several options and much has been written and debated about them.
The reality is that under all of them we would be able to set our own regulations, we would no longer have to pay huge membership fees, we would be able to prevent unemployed immigrants from coming here, we would be able to sign our own trading agreements elsewhere, and we would be able to reduce the costs of food and other imports. Those are clearly policy reasons for leaving, even if there a number of options after that.0 -
@ Avery
Generally speaking, shifting the tax burden from the rich and corporations to the rest of us leads to wage stagnation and most of the benefits of growth going to the rich. In the 1950s, corporations paid about $3 in taxes to each dollar of taxes on wages. Now its about 22 cents of corporate taxes to every dollar of wage taxes.
Ho ho ho Mr Pole, what do you think has been happening in the UK ? How would you describe VAT or fuel tax if not a burden shift from rich to poor ? I doubt the well-being of the voters is currently top of Osborne's mind.
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"Such a shame that the SNP are doing such a terrible job in advocating independence that even 17% of thei rown voters do not want independence"
You must be almost as shocked at Labour's efforts in opposing independence, then - 11% of their voters are in the Yes camp.0 -
Says a man with no agendatim said:Looking at the London schools research and the census, bi-lingualism has been a contributor to a rise in educational standards and the numbers of people unable to speak English well is a small percentage of the total.
Children in Londons schools for whom English is a second language now outperform the national average at GCSE.
Like crime and benefit scrounging the language issue is a generalisation clung to by people with an agenda0 -
James - I bet when your football team loses a match you say "yeah but we had more throw ins."JamesKelly said:YouGov poll on the independence referendum :
How convincing a case, if at all, do you think the No campaign have made to persuade
you that Scotland would gain more devolved powers if there was a No vote in the
referendum?
TOTAL CONVINCING 33%
TOTAL NOT VERY/AT ALL CONVINCING 47%
Should the anti-independence campaign return Ian Taylor's £500,000 donation?
Yes 43%
No 34%
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We have a thread about Scottish independence and our beloved SNP posters have dissappeared. 139 posts so far and none of them (AFAIK) have deigned to write about their lifetime goal.... Are the jocks still in shock about SAF retiring?0
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I believe Norway pays about a third of what it would if it was an EU member, although I can't remember where I heard it.Sunil_Prasannan said:If we were out of the EU but in the EEA would we still have to pay the EU 18 billion p.a. in protection money?
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Talking of voting intention, I see that Mike hasn't given those figures from the Ipsos-Mori poll in his thread-header. Here they are -
SNP 39%
Labour 36%
Conservatives 16%
Liberal Democrats 8%0 -
@Socrates It's not too much to expect a party with its mainplank being "withdrawal from the EU" to be doing a little more than writing and debating about them. I'm not an unreasonable man. I don't expect UKIP to have coherent crime policies or to have a deputy leader who knows the first thing about childcare policies. But I do expect UKIP to be able to map out cogently where it sees Britain's post-EU role developing.
It's not so much a single issue party as a zero issue party. Hence why it is polling so well at present.0 -
"We have a thread about Scottish independence and our beloved SNP posters have dissappeared"
Hello? Hello? Am I invisible?0 -
Yes, and do you know why it has changed? To make Norwegian law compatible with an EU directive.Richard_Tyndall said:That has only changed very recently
It's a perfect example of the 'government by fax' problem which drives a coach and horses through UKIP's position.
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"James - I bet when your football team loses a match you say "yeah but we had more throw ins.""
I think the analogy you're looking for is that being a goal behind 20 minutes into the game isn't the same thing as losing the game.0 -
I agree, Mr. Brooke, it will not be top of Osborne's mind at present, because there are more pressing problems to address.Alanbrooke said:@ Avery
Generally speaking, shifting the tax burden from the rich and corporations to the rest of us leads to wage stagnation and most of the benefits of growth going to the rich. In the 1950s, corporations paid about $3 in taxes to each dollar of taxes on wages. Now its about 22 cents of corporate taxes to every dollar of wage taxes.
Ho ho ho Mr Pole, what do you think has been happening in the UK ? How would you describe VAT or fuel tax if not a burden shift from rich to poor ? I doubt the well-being of the voters is currently top of Osborne's mind.
But it will be there, down the list, and our Boy George can stand up and chew gum at the same time.
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Hardly Tim.tim said:
Like crime and benefit scrounging the language issue is a generalisation clung to by people with an agenda
If you want to target language teaching on those that need it fine, but of course the far right just see it as some fantasy barrier they can erect.
According to the latest census results there are now 726,000 people living in England who speak English only poorly and 138,000 who speak no English at all.
That's over 860,000 people who have a massive self inflicted barrier against integration.
You might not think that is an issue but most people would.
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We don't know who'll win the Scottish referendum but we probably do know this: young men will vote in favour and older women will vote against.0
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What do you think is going wrong with the "yes to Scottish independence" campaign?JamesKelly said:Hello? Hello? Am I invisible?
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Also bad news for Tim in this poll - his theory that Alistair Darling would become more popular as the campaign wore on seems to have taken a knock. Darling is now in negative territory - quite a feat given that he doesn't have any ministerial responsibilities to make him unpopular. Perhaps his relentlessly negative arguments against independence are beginning to irritate people.0
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Well SLAB are doing a better job than SNP are with their voters. Why are the SNP failing to convince their own voters?JamesKelly said:"Such a shame that the SNP are doing such a terrible job in advocating independence that even 17% of their own voters do not want independence" You must be almost as shocked at Labour's efforts in opposing independence, then - 11% of their voters are in the Yes camp.
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@antifrank
I have just pointed out a number of ways in which policy would be different from being in the EU across the scenarios of being outside. You don't acknowledge this and respond with the same point you've made several times before. For someone so dismissive of people having a view based on a "state of mind" when they should be doing it based on policy, you seem ever so attached to your own state of mind regarding how terrible UKIP are, and awfully willing to avoid about talking about policy.0 -
"What do you think is going wrong with the "yes to Scottish independence" campaign?"
Nothing. The first three months of this year were excellent, with consistent movement in our direction. It remains to be seen whether this poll marks a new trend or not - as we all know, one swallow does not make a summer in polling terms.0 -
Probably notSunil_Prasannan said:If we were out of the EU but in the EEA would we still have to pay the EU 18 billion p.a. in protection money?
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so can Wayne Rooney, but I wouldn't make him Chancellor.AveryLP said:
I agree, Mr. Brooke, it will not be top of Osborne's mind at present, because there are more pressing problems to address.Alanbrooke said:@ Avery
Generally speaking, shifting the tax burden from the rich and corporations to the rest of us leads to wage stagnation and most of the benefits of growth going to the rich. In the 1950s, corporations paid about $3 in taxes to each dollar of taxes on wages. Now its about 22 cents of corporate taxes to every dollar of wage taxes.
Ho ho ho Mr Pole, what do you think has been happening in the UK ? How would you describe VAT or fuel tax if not a burden shift from rich to poor ? I doubt the well-being of the voters is currently top of Osborne's mind.
But it will be there, down the list, and our Boy George can stand up and chew gum at the same time.0 -
Oh can you imagine?!!Socrates said:
I wonder how you would react if someone made patronising stereotypes about a non-British national group.tim said:Imagine all the 2 million Brits around Europe being forced into 300 hours of language teaching.
A lot of talking slowly and shouting loudly involved in that.0 -
Do South Korea or Mexico have government by fax with the EU? They have free trade too you know.RichardNabavi said:
Yes, and do you know why it has changed? To make Norwegian law compatible with an EU directive.Richard_Tyndall said:That has only changed very recently
It's a perfect example of the 'government by fax' problem which drives a coach and horses through UKIP's position.0 -
"Why are the SNP failing to convince their own voters?"
Er, you did spot that SNP voters break 69%-17% for Yes? By historic standards that's astonishingly high. In the 1990s, for instance, only about half of SNP supporters wanted independence - in spite of the fact that were far fewer SNP voters in those days.0 -
Actually, the Eurozone is offering extensions all round right now: I'm pretty certain that Spain, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Greece have all been offered extension on getting their budget deficits down.Alanbrooke said:Just last week they gave France a 2 year extension on its budgert deficit something no other Eurozone country would be offered.
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JamesK - did that YouGov poll have a Yes/No question? The MORI poll is the only one in the last month and a bit, so it would be nice to know if there were additional numbers.0
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@Socrates When UKIP come up with a policy I'll debate it. While it remains the party for people with a problem with the 21st century, I'll mock it.0
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Hardly, you actually don't know why the change came about and are just assuming that it was due to the EU.RichardNabavi said:
Yes, and do you know why it has changed? To make Norwegian law compatible with an EU directive.Richard_Tyndall said:That has only changed very recently
It's a perfect example of the 'government by fax' problem which drives a coach and horses through UKIP's position.
And as I said you can only stay in Norway if you have employment or are financially self sufficient which is one very big difference from EU membership and one which would go a long way to satisfying most people about immigration concerns.
You like to pretend that the EEA and EU are much the same because it suits your pro EU position but in fact the only way you can maintain that fallacy is by ignoring the huge differences between the two - differences which underpin the reason why the Norwegians are so opposed to EU membership.0 -
I'm not sure that having lots of foggy notions rather than just one really helps, Socrates!Socrates said:It's also a complete lie to talk about eurosceptics "not having the foggiest notion" on what should be done: there are several options and much has been written and debated about them.
Anyway you are slightly missing the point which both antifrank and I are making. It's just like Scotland and the currency question: sure, there are various viable options. Each has advantages and disadvantages, but what you can't do is claim the advantages of all of them with the disadvantages of none of them. It might well be a good idea to stay in the EEA, but, if we do, we don't get control over immigration of EU workers. Or we can leave the EEA, in which case we don't get full access to the Single Market. UKIP seem to want to have their cake, eat it, and sell it to the Chinese as well.0 -
Depends if your "star" striker is hiding behind the goalpost and trying to force the captains armband onto the goalie.JamesKelly said:"James - I bet when your football team loses a match you say "yeah but we had more throw ins.""
I think the analogy you're looking for is that being a goal behind 20 minutes into the game isn't the same thing as losing the game.0 -
@antifrank I'm happy to rest my case.0
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Do we even remember when it was a poll last shpwed "Yes" ahead, let alone a majority among respondents?JamesKelly said:"What do you think is going wrong with the "yes to Scottish independence" campaign?"
Nothing. The first three months of this year were excellent, with consistent movement in our direction. It remains to be seen whether this poll marks a new trend or not - as we all know, one swallow does not make a summer in polling terms.0 -
"JamesK - did that YouGov poll have a Yes/No question?"
There's no way of knowing. It was a poll for the SNP, and both sides only release the results that suit them. For instance, there was a Better Together poll conducted by YouGov (last week, I think?) and there were several questions mysteriously left out when it was published.0 -
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"Do we even remember when it was a poll last shpwed "Yes" ahead, let alone a majority among respondents?"
Yes, it was 2011. August, I think, but Rob might be able to give you the exact date.0 -
"The total EEA EFTA commitment amounts to 2.4% of the overall EU programme budget. In 2008 Norway’s contribution was €188 million. Throughout the programme period 2007—2013, the Norwegian contribution will increase substantially in parallel with the development of the EU programme budget, from €130 million in 2007 to €290 million in 2013."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway–European_Union_relations0 -
@JamesKelly
James what do you think the catalyst will be for people to return to the "YES" camp. We know there is status quo bias, we know that there are some big questions out there (currency, trade zones, etc).
What would have to happen for there to be a shift? Confirmation of Sterling zone? Confirmation of Scottish Poon (or whatever you might want to call it)?0 -
I don't claim to be an expert like you, but I rather imagined that the Norwegian Government might have a bit of an inside track on this:Richard_Tyndall said:Hardly, you actually don't know why the change came about and are just assuming that it was due to the EU.
The right to free movement of persons is provided for in an EU directive of 2004, and implemented in the Norwegian Immigration Act and Immigration Regulations.
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ad/topics/labour-market-policy/labour-immigration/work-permits-and-settlement.html?id=86695
(And before you point to 2004 as the date, there was a six-year transitional period)0 -
Correct, but it won't solve Spain's problems.rcs1000 said:
Actually, the Eurozone is offering extensions all round right now: I'm pretty certain that Spain, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Greece have all been offered extension on getting their budget deficits down.Alanbrooke said:Just last week they gave France a 2 year extension on its budgert deficit something no other Eurozone country would be offered.
Global agreement on FTT linked to 2nd Marshall Plan to save the Eurozone.
That is what's coming.
And Anglo-Saxon consent to the plan will be conditional on new settlement between UK and EU. The US will intervene to 'secure European integrity'.
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That's fair enough, was only wondering.JamesKelly said:"JamesK - did that YouGov poll have a Yes/No question?"
There's no way of knowing. It was a poll for the SNP, and both sides only release the results that suit them. For instance, there was a Better Together poll conducted by YouGov (last week, I think?) and there were several questions mysteriously left out when it was published.
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Obama pulls deficit down below $1trn
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44144
What happens when you ignore the deficit hysterics.0 -
"James what do you think the catalyst will be for people to return to the "YES" camp."
In a nutshell, the rightward drift of politics at Westminster, and the creeping realisation that Labour aren't going to win the next general election.
"We know there is status quo bias"
We know no such thing. Quebec '95 stubbornly fails to bear that theory out. The Yes campaign were light-years behind, and ended up in a virtual dead heat by polling day.0 -
rcs if you're right I haven't yet seen it in any of the press I follow ( french, german, irish ) so far I've only seen France.rcs1000 said:
Actually, the Eurozone is offering extensions all round right now: I'm pretty certain that Spain, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Greece have all been offered extension on getting their budget deficits down.Alanbrooke said:Just last week they gave France a 2 year extension on its budgert deficit something no other Eurozone country would be offered.
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@tim It's UKIP's policy to phase out agricultural subsidies. For some reason you think that a sentence on their website to make sure they don't stop "suddenly" contradicts this. I'm happy to accept that I mistook the espoused views of their party leader for party policy on drugs legalisation, although this is because it's rare that they are different in UK party politics. I have also criticised UKIP for not articulating a clear commitment to leaving the EEA in the longer term. I have also not "come out as a Kipper". I've said I'm leaning towards voting for them but am basically undecided between UKIP and the Conservatives.
Given that the moderators have now made clear they won't accept personal attacks from you, I'm happy to start debating you again. However, if you start lying about what I have previously said and not said again, I'm going back to ignoring mode.
PS. Note how I'm happy to admit when I made a mistake. It's not a sign of character weakness. It might improve your reputation if you did the same thing too sometimes.0 -
@RichardNabavi
I hear the criticism and you put it much more reasonably than antifrank does. I agree it's a weakness in UKIP's message and they need to sort it out. What I disagree with is the argument that such a lack of clarity is unique to UKIP. It affects all our major parties. UKIP, however, should hold themselves to a higher standard than the establishment three.0 -
@BBCNormanS: I understand Labour will vote against Tory MPs euro referendum motion next week
Victory for Ed. His plan to join the Euro still on track...0 -
By ummmmmm cutting spending...BenM said:Obama pulls deficit down below $1trn
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44144
What happens when you ignore the deficit hysterics.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-216387270 -
The Norway contribution to the EU for 2013 will be about 290 million Euros. For a population of just over 5 million people that is approx. 58 euros per person.Socrates said:
I believe Norway pays about a third of what it would if it was an EU member, although I can't remember where I heard it.Sunil_Prasannan said:If we were out of the EU but in the EEA would we still have to pay the EU 18 billion p.a. in protection money?
The 2012 UK gross contribution was approx £18bn Euros which for a population of around 62 million means we are paying approx 290 Euros per person.
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tim,
The old saying that being born English is winning first prize in the lottery of life is probably true as regards language. My son and daughter-in-law live in Copenhagen, and though they have learned enough Danish to converse as needed, it's not that necessary.
OK, Scandinavians learn English at school and are generally fluent, but why pander to other nation's inadequacies in that respect? Learn English (or American), you lazy bastards!0 -
The US has actually cut government spending. The UK has not.BenM said:Obama pulls deficit down below $1trn
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44144
What happens when you ignore the deficit hysterics.
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And yet there is still not free movement as you are only allowed to stay in Norway and get a residence permit if you have employment.RichardNabavi said:
I don't claim to be an expert like you, but I rather imagined that the Norwegian Government might have a bit of an inside track on this:Richard_Tyndall said:Hardly, you actually don't know why the change came about and are just assuming that it was due to the EU.
The right to free movement of persons is provided for in an EU directive of 2004, and implemented in the Norwegian Immigration Act and Immigration Regulations.
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ad/topics/labour-market-policy/labour-immigration/work-permits-and-settlement.html?id=86695
(And before you point to 2004 as the date, there was a six-year transitional period)
So again it is not the same no matter how much you might try to make it so in your own mind.0 -
So two years ago? Must have been the SNP post-election honeymoon period.JamesKelly said:"Do we even remember when it was a poll last shpwed "Yes" ahead, let alone a majority among respondents?"
Yes, it was 2011. August, I think, but Rob might be able to give you the exact date.0 -
Actually Slackbladder, it's mainly (~95%) by increasing revenue if you read the report. This is the expiry of the Bush tax cuts and an economic recovery.Slackbladder said:
By ummmmmm cutting spending...BenM said:Obama pulls deficit down below $1trn
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44144
What happens when you ignore the deficit hysterics.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-216387270 -
@JamesKelly
just out of interest what are the odds you are getting on both a Scottish independence yes and Labour not getting in to govt (Maj or NOM)?
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Can any of the PB Euroholics justify the 18 billion GBP we give Brussels per year in protection money?0
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Well, there are two elements to that question:Sunil_Prasannan said:
(1) What benefit - if any - do British businesses and the British economy derive from being part of the Single Economic Area?
(2) What functions does the EU currently provide for Britain that we would have to do ourselves if we were outside it?
If you could answer those questions you could see the value for money (or not) that is derived from membership.
As a partner in an asset management firm, I can tell you that we benefit from the Single Financial Passport, which enables us to sell our product (fund management) to people across the EU. For countries outside the EU, there are extensive regulatory hurdles that need to be crossed, and (in many cases) the requirement for a local subsidiary if you want to sell asset management products. But - of course - not all industries are like financial services.0 -
"just out of interest what are the odds you are getting on both a Scottish independence yes and Labour not getting in to govt (Maj or NOM)?"
I've no idea, to be honest. I'm not really a betting man apart from a few private bets here.0 -
1) I'm not a Euroholic. My views on the EU have barely been explored on here. Given the bonkers terms in which all EU matters are discussed on here, it would be like discussing the finer points of the thinking of St Thomas Aquinas in the sixth circle of Dante's Inferno.Sunil_Prasannan said:
2) What is this protection money of which you speak? Tony Blair gave a succinct explanation of Britain's current contribution to the EU and why we make it in the Times today:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/332419841086590976/photo/1
(picture courtesy of John Rentoul)
3) What makes you think that by leaving the EU Britain would pay less money to the EU (cf Norway)?
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"So two years ago?"
Well done, Sunil! Mental arithmetic skills intact. Strictly speaking it was 21 months ago, and I doubt it had much to do with an SNP honeymoon - the best polling figures for independence were when the Labour-Lib Dem coalition were still in power at Holyrood (probably because they were being utterly ineffective in standing up for Scotland).0 -
"Behave like Nigel Farage not as a public school toff, Cameron told
After Tory loss at Oxfordshire council elections, former chief Keith Mitchell points to popular appeal of Ukip leader":
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/08/nigel-farage-toff-david-cameron0 -
But you do get control over immigration of EU non-workers.RichardNabavi said:It might well be a good idea to stay in the EEA, but, if we do, we don't get control over immigration of EU workers. Or we can leave the EEA, in which case we don't get full access to the Single Market. UKIP seem to want to have their cake, eat it, and sell it to the Chinese as well.
And as far as free trade is concerned being in EFTA rather than the EEA still gives you free trade with the EU but with the added ability to negotiate separate trade deals with other countries. EFTA currently has free trade agreements with more than 30 other countries including some that the EU has yet to secure deals with.
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I'm just going to have to post again to get my post count off a troubling number. Apologies for going OCD.0
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I didn't say it was the same. I said it was incompatible with Farage's claim (and it's a major plank of UKIP's electoral pitch) that we could keep out Eastern European workers.Richard_Tyndall said:So again it is not the same no matter how much you might try to make it so in your own mind.
As antifrank rightly points out, this isn't some minor side-issue where UKIP might reasonably not have refined every detail of policy: it strikes at the heart of their entire message, and also kills off their claim to plain-speaking in contrast to the obfuscation of other parties.
As I said earlier, the political significance of this is that the UKIP surge will inevitably mean these kinds of inconsistencies get more attention. Political punters should bear this in mind.0 -
Spain's application has yet to be approved by the EU but all the noises have been indicative that it will be granted. Even Germany has been supportive.Alanbrooke said:
rcs if you're right I haven't yet seen it in any of the press I follow ( french, german, irish ) so far I've only seen France.rcs1000 said:
Actually, the Eurozone is offering extensions all round right now: I'm pretty certain that Spain, Ireland, Portugal, the Netherlands and Greece have all been offered extension on getting their budget deficits down.Alanbrooke said:Just last week they gave France a 2 year extension on its budgert deficit something no other Eurozone country would be offered.
The extended deadlines policy has also been advocated as a generic solution for the problem countries by the ECB and EU Commission in recent policy announcements. The general line is exchange delays in meeting deficit targets for "structural reforms".
Structural reforms to agriculture and labour markets in France!
*titters*
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The Financial passport system also applies to EEA countries not just the EU.rcs1000 said:
As a partner in an asset management firm, I can tell you that we benefit from the Single Financial Passport, which enables us to sell our product (fund management) to people across the EU. For countries outside the EU, there are extensive regulatory hurdles that need to be crossed, and (in many cases) the requirement for a local subsidiary if you want to sell asset management products. But - of course - not all industries are like financial services.0 -
Net cost £8bn.Sunil_Prasannan said:Can any of the PB Euroholics justify the 18 billion GBP we give Brussels per year in protection money?
A snip for access and influence over the world's largest market.0 -
It might be more accurate to say you get more control. You are still required to sign up to the principle of freedom of movement. And, I think it's fair to say, there are few Poles collecting unemployment benefit (just 13,000 or so, I believe). Of course, if we were in the EEA rather than the EU then that number might be zero.Richard_Tyndall said:
But you do get control over immigration of EU non-workers.0 -
Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: I understand Labour will vote against Tory MPs euro referendum motion next week
Victory for Ed. His plan to join the Euro still on track...
Still 50/50 on the referendum though - option A is yes, option B is Ja.Scott_P said:@BBCNormanS: I understand Labour will vote against Tory MPs euro referendum motion next week
Victory for Ed. His plan to join the Euro still on track...
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