politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014
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Actually its bang on the national average.HYUFD said:Speedy Well Hillary still leads Paul more in California than she does nationally, and Warren is basically Dukakis in a skirt, and he of course lost the golden state to Bush 41. Indeed, California used to be a republican state, from IKE's victory in 1952 until Clinton's win in 1992 the GOP only lost California once, in 1964 when LBJ trounced Goldwater
Average of the last 4 nationwide polls in the US between Hillary and Paul were 48.5 vs 39.5.
That we are talking even the possibility that the GOP might get California again is also a sign that without Hillary and her 20-25% advantage with women the democrats bite the dust.
Also its not just one state that is different from the 2008 and 2012 elections, its whole regions.
Hillary does worse than average in the west (California might be included) and much better in the south.0 -
Brilliant - even as the plane is on its way to bring 2 Ebola infected Americans back to Atlanta, the CDC issues a level 3 - avoid non-essential travel - advisory for Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
So I don't need to go to the trouble of going there - they're bringing it home to me. How kind.
http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/destinations/traveler/none/liberia0 -
I hear very little on the subject here, but once in a while the BBC World Service will mention it, usually when there is an argument about the independence folks claims. The last one I recall was whether an independent Scotland could keep the pound.HYUFD said:Looks like the indyref is heading towards a 60-40 result, unless Salmond trounces Darling on Tuesday, but as he is expected to win a better than expected Darling performance could actually boost No
The impression I am left with, accurate or not, and on very little information, is that the independence case is rather light on detail and may contain a few nasty surprises if the vote goes that way.0 -
Pulpstar Well that will really be the final straw
TimB I would imagine it is getting about the same coverage as Quebec's independence referendum got0 -
Speedy Will have to see if this poll is an outlier, but you are right, would not be surprised to see Hillary lose Colarado and California close, while Arkansas and Kentucky and N Carolina all vote Democrat. Of course, it is highly unusual for the incumbent party to hold the White House after 8 years, so if Hillary manages it that would be quite an achievement, only Truman and Bush Snr have done so since WW20
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My main desire in the US is that Rand Paul wins the GOP nomination. I'm on at 50/1 in a bet placed in Nov 20120
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Union supporters outside Scotland may want to sign BT's new online message board showing support for the Union
https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/0 -
Daniel Radcliffe is the most gorgeous man in the world at the moment. Lean, athletic, vigorous, muscular, stubbly, energetic, hot, masculine, hairy, smiley, deep voice, rugged, etc...HYUFD said:JohnLooney Daniel Radcliffe is an OK actor, but good looking? He is pretty average, you see better looking men and women on the average high street!
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I do not fancy Tom Daley. I have never fancied Tom Daley, and he has never been in the WAAAAGH League Table. He is of course very handsome and beautiful, and I am a big fan of him, but for me there has never been the specific spark which makes me fancy him. Why I don't fancy Tom is one of the biggest unsolved mysteries of the Universe.Pulpstar said:
What happened to Tom Daley !JohnLoony said:(OT)
(statistics as requested)
As returning officer for the Worldwide Association for the Assessment, Appreciation and Advancement of Gorgeousness and Hunkiness (WAAAAGH), I hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate in the 12 months from August 2013 to July 2014 (and the changes since last month) was as follows:
1. Daniel Radcliffe 116 (+5)
2. Gareth Bale 82 (-6)
3. Ivan Garcia 74 (-1)
4. Peter Phillips 64 (+6)
5. Prince Louis of Luxembourg 50 (-3)
6. (up 1) Alex Pettyfer 29 (+1)
7. (up 1) Dane DeHaan 28 (+0)
8. (down 2) Prince Harry 27 (-10)
9. Skandar Keynes 26 (+0)
10. Ben Hardy 20 (+6)
11. Shaun Smith 12 (+0)
12. Jamie Bell 12 (+1)
13. Liam Payne 6 (+0)
14. Danny Casey 5 (+0)
15. Gil Yehezkel 5 (+1)
16. Austin Butler 4 (+0)
17. James Alexandrou 4 (+0)
18. Adam Gemili 2 (new entrant)
Total 566 (+2)
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Why "most amazingly"?Speedy said:
Well a 5th state poll today, a first from California, confirms my suspicions that america is returning somewhat to the pre-Obama era or even pre-Bush W. of presidential politics:HYUFD said:Speedy Though Hillary still beats him in every other state, and is more electable than Warren. Don't forget either Bill Clinton lost Colorado to Dole in 1996 and Hillary lost it to Obama in the caucuses, Colorado is not Clinton country
Clinton 49%
Paul 40%
Paul 44%
Warren 33%
Obama won it 60 to 37 last time.
Most amazing is that without Hillary the democrats would also lose California in a presidential election to the republicans.
Until Clinton I, California had been solidly GOP (and Clinton only got 46% of the vote in 1992 with HW on 33% and Perot on 21%). They won every year between 1956 and 1992 [except for Goldwater] - this is as far back as Wiki goes. Nixon and Reagan were the last Californian Presidents...
Clearly demographic change has been shifting against the GOP, but it's not the "no hoper" state that so many in Europe assume - in particular SoCal (especially Orange County and the Inland Empire) are GOP heartlands*
* Of course, reflecting my Irish heritage, I've chosen to base myself in the Democrat heartland in Orange County... a minority in a minority in a minority...
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That's not possible. I don't believe you've ever won a 50/1 tip for the US presidential elections*MikeSmithson said:My main desire in the US is that Rand Paul wins the GOP nomination. I'm on at 50/1 in a bet placed in Nov 2012
* Go on, you know you want to ;-)0 -
OGH I think it will end up being a Paul v Christie battle with Christie edging it but we will see, Cruz also an outside bet
JohnLooney He does geek chic OK, but he basically looks like a teenage swot, I have nothing against him, but if he was not famous I don't think most people would bat an eyelid, certainly by Hollywood standards he is no looker, but each to their own I suppose! Night!0 -
Whoa, wait, what?!???!? Peston? Presenter of Newsnight? That's like selecting Eric Pickles for the Commonwealth Games gymnastics team!SeanT said:JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.
You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.
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Thanks for this, will be sure to share it.HYUFD said:Union supporters outside Scotland may want to sign BT's new online message board showing support for the Union
https://www.letsstaytogether.org.uk/
John-You need some real men on that list ;-)0 -
Thanks RobD0
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On California it looks like Hillary will hold California by a tighter but still comfortable margin, however it would be vulnerable if the Democrats put up another candidate0
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To ensure even happier frame suggest do not read The Daily Mail (paper or web).Flightpath said:
The best thing is not to watch Newsnight. I am in a far happier frame of mind as a result - although that might have something to do with not watching Question Time as well.MarqueeMark said:
Peston has a most peculiar style for a presenter. A combination of diffidence, boredom and frustration, like he is continually explaining quantum mechanics to a group of pensioners who were expecting the bingo...SeanT said:JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.
You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.
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