politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview: July 31st 2014

Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 33, Labour 16, British National Party 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 14)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservative 1,473, 1,399, 1,309
Labour 1,306, 1,153, 1,058
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here

surbiton

1st. Why ?

Morris_Dancer

Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

FPT: Mr. Toms, no. And why should they?

Also, husbandry makes me think of Red Mage from 8-Bit Theater.

foxinsoxuk

Thurmaston will be an interesting one. It is a Northern Suburb of Leicester, with some Asian population, mostly Gujerati Hindu, from the nearby Belgrave road area. Having an Asian Candidate here may well help the Tories a bit, particularly with a multiplicity of other parties splitting the fruitcake vote.

It is the sort of Midland marginal area that will decide the next election. There have been extensive building schemes mooted locally to this area so that may distort the national picture with some local issues.

Tim_B

Isn't husbandry the male form of midwifery but with animals?

TGOHF

foxinsoxuk said:

Thurmaston will be an interesting one. It is a Northern Suburb of Leicester, with some Asian population, mostly Gujerati Hindu, from the nearby Belgrave road area. Having an Asian Candidate here may well help the Tories a bit, particularly with a multiplicity of other parties splitting the fruitcake vote.

It is the sort of Midland marginal area that will decide the next election. There have been extensive building schemes mooted locally to this area so that may distort the national picture with some local issues.

Kippers got a chance here ?

OldKingCole

Who or what are the British Democrats?

Morris_Dancer

F1: nice summary by McNish of winners and losers so far this season:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28538115

It's implied, but I'd add Ricciardo to the winners' list. Future world champion, if he gets a car capable of delivering it.

Speedy

Big day for 2016 polling, 4 state polls are out, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina.

Ohio:

Clinton 46%
Paul 42%

Clinton 48%
Bush 37%

Clinton 46%
Christie 37%

Clinton 47%
Kasich 40%

Nevada:

Clinton 47%
Paul 44%

Clinton 46%
Bush 41%

Clinton 48%
Martinez 35%

Colorado:

Clinton 41%
Bush 40%

Clinton 45%
Christie 39%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 43%

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 43%

Clinton 44%
Paul 45%

North Carolina:

Clinton- 45%
Paul- 43%

Paul- 44%
Warren - 35%


All in all Hillary has a problem in Colorado (an Obama state) and Paul is getting closer to her.
Right now through state polling as well as national polling the most electable republican right now is Rand Paul, quite an amazing change from just a few years ago.

FrankBooth

Wales is a funny one when it comes to councils. I suppose it keeps the main parties on their toes though.

MonikerDiCanio

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

Scott_P

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

"success would seem to be beyond Mr Salmond’s grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on Tuesday"

There will be tears before bedtime...

RobD

Scott_P said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

"success would seem to be beyond Mr Salmond’s grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on Tuesday"

There will be tears before bedtime...

The voters will rue the day

MonikerDiCanio

Scott_P said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

"success would seem to be beyond Mr Salmond’s grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on Tuesday"

There will be tears before bedtime...

Tears for feartie;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10999560/Alex-Salmond-rejects-two-BBC-debates-with-Alistair-Darling.html

RobD

Anyone know if the debate will by shown online?

Speedy

Scott_P said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

"success would seem to be beyond Mr Salmond’s grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on Tuesday"

There will be tears before bedtime...

Counting their chickens before they hatch.

Scott_P

RobD said:

Anyone know if the debate will by shown online?

Allegedly on STVPlayer, but I don't know if that is realtime

richardDodd

Scottish Incoming..

RobD

richardDodd said:

Scottish Incoming..

To be fair there has been a bit of baiting, what with 'millstone' and 'rue' being uttered :')

MikeSmithson

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

RobD

SeanT said:

Interesting convo about Britain's remaining overseas possession on the prior thread - St Helena, Falklands etc

The curious thing I've noted is that, although these isolated specks may seem irrelevant, even irritating, at the moment, they may ultimately be worth every pound we spend defending them - times ten - because their very isolation means they confer ownership of vast areas of the surrounding ocean floor on the colonial power. The UK.

And given that the sea bed is going to be the new and lucrative frontier for shale gas, tight oil, weird methane globules, this could equal trillions of $.

We need to hold on to them for noble reasons of democracy and self determination. Then ruthlessly exploit them.

More importantly, those tiny specks mean that the Sun has yet to set on the (remnants of the) British empire since the early 1800s :')

https://what-if.xkcd.com/48/

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

I thought the debates weren't being shown in England?

compouter2

.... and the PB Hodges go tumbling back down the hill...Labour 4% lead.38/34.

Speedy

SeanT said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

It will be utterly incredible if these debates - so important to the integrity of our nation - are not available to watch, in real time, across the nation. If BBC News does not broadcast them that would be reason enough to take away the licence fee, to my mind.

This is what the BBC is FOR. If they don't realise this in Portland Place, privatise their asses.

But people outside of scotland dont care, even people in scotland are bored to death of the indyref.

foxinsoxuk

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Thurmaston will be an interesting one. It is a Northern Suburb of Leicester, with some Asian population, mostly Gujerati Hindu, from the nearby Belgrave road area. Having an Asian Candidate here may well help the Tories a bit, particularly with a multiplicity of other parties splitting the fruitcake vote.

It is the sort of Midland marginal area that will decide the next election. There have been extensive building schemes mooted locally to this area so that may distort the national picture with some local issues.

Kippers got a chance here ?

I would have thought not. There has been a significant white flight type phenomenon in some of these peri-Leicester areas, historically to the BNP, but it may shift to elsewhere. The Kippers do have a couple of Leicestershire council seats, but these were tory defections rather than elected as kippers (to my best memory)

I would have thought a pretty straight Labour/Tory fight, going to Labour is my guess.

Edin_Rokz

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

Nope! Salmond "decreed" that the debate was going on STV. He refused to go on BBC, although since he is such good buddies with Murdoch, I am surprised he didn't agree to SKY. Darling, I understand doesn't really mind where, he's looking forward to having some fun.

kle4

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

It will be utterly incredible if these debates - so important to the integrity of our nation - are not available to watch, in real time, across the nation. If BBC News does not broadcast them that would be reason enough to take away the licence fee, to my mind.

This is what the BBC is FOR. If they don't realise this in Portland Place, privatise their asses.

But people outside of scotland dont care, even people in scotland are bored to death of the indyref.

I care. I might not have watched if I had the option, but I would have liked the option at least. I watched all three PM debates and the Farage-Clegg debates, and there must be a few more sadoes like me who would watch these debates too.

RobD

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

It will be utterly incredible if these debates - so important to the integrity of our nation - are not available to watch, in real time, across the nation. If BBC News does not broadcast them that would be reason enough to take away the licence fee, to my mind.

This is what the BBC is FOR. If they don't realise this in Portland Place, privatise their asses.

But people outside of scotland dont care, even people in scotland are bored to death of the indyref.

I care. I might not have watched if I had the option, but I would have liked the option at least. I watched all three PM debates and the Farage-Clegg debates, and there must be a few more sadoes like me who would watch these debates too.

Yep, I certainly want to watch it.

bigjohnowls

Tonights YG Ed 347 Tories 260

Ed is crap is PM

kle4

Speedy said:

Right now through state polling as well as national polling the most electable republican right now is Rand Paul, quite an amazing change from just a few years ago.

Good hope for an interesting race then I guess.

SouthamObserver

You can get BBC Scotland on my Sky package. It's at the end of the Entertainment menu.

It will also be on iPlayer, I guess - though not live.

It's ridiculous it is not being shown, of course.

RobD

SeanT said:

Edin_Rokz said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

Nope! Salmond "decreed" that the debate was going on STV. He refused to go on BBC, although since he is such good buddies with Murdoch, I am surprised he didn't agree to SKY. Darling, I understand doesn't really mind where, he's looking forward to having some fun.

So it really will be unwatchable elsewhere in the UK? Bizarre and astonishing.

Can't we set up a pb channel to live-torrent this crap? How hard is it to tap into STV's analogue feed and stream it on the Net? F*ck that creepy fat coward Alex Salmond. Ugh.

Looks like we are in luck:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/alex-salmond-to-have-final-say-in-scottish-independence-tv-debate-30473079.html

"Viewers from the rest of the UK can watch the debate online with a globally available livestream on the STV Player."

Not sure about how having the first and last word is fair, but hey-ho. You'd have thought one coin toss would have decided who went first in both segments, as opposed to a toss per segment.

SouthamObserver

BBC Scotland is Channel 951 on Sky.

FrancisUrquhart

Wow, what a disgrace of a report at news at 10.

Asking a young Israeli pilot a whole raft of questions on the level of "how do you sleep at night" (and yes that is a direct quote).

Now whatever you think about the conflict, who is right, who is wrong, etc, asking somebody who is called up by their country to fight stuff like that is totally and utterly unfair and also you know what the answer will be. That isn't unbiased reporting / questioning and is clearly taking sides and with a clear agenda.

Politicians are fair game for extremely tough questioning about many of their decisions so far and into the future, but it was a clear ambush interview on somebody who doesn't have any power.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

You can get BBC Scotland on my Sky package. It's at the end of the Entertainment menu.

It will also be on iPlayer, I guess - though not live.

It's ridiculous it is not being shown, of course.

BBC aren't showing any debates, IIRC, so it won't be on iPlayer.

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

You can get BBC Scotland on my Sky package. It's at the end of the Entertainment menu.

It will also be on iPlayer, I guess - though not live.

It's ridiculous it is not being shown, of course.

BBC aren't showing any debates, IIRC, so it won't be on iPlayer.

Yup, just saw that.

compouter2

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights YG Ed 347 Tories 260

Ed is crap is PM

Sshhhhh....don't mention the polls.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wow, what a disgrace of a report at news at 10.

Asking a young Israeli pilot a whole raft of questions on the level of "how do you sleep at night" (and yes that is a direct quote).

Now whatever you think about the conflict, who is right, who is wrong, etc, asking somebody who is called up by their country to fight stuff like that is totally and utterly unfair and also you know what the answer will be. That isn't unbiased reporting / questioning and is clearly taking sides and with a clear agenda.

They are deliberately targeting and slaughtering innocent Gazan kids. Seems a perfectly fair question to me.

If Israelis, Zionists and Jews don't like this shit, there is a clear answer: Stop Killing the Children

Perhaps we should have refrained from asking probing questions of Waffen SS members, on the grounds that they were "serving their country"?

Any journalist would ask similar questions of any soldier on active combat missions. Normally,. however, they'll have restricted access to them, so they can't. They operated under very strict conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan as far as I remember. Maybe the Israelis do not have similar controls.

Speedy

SeanT said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

It will be utterly incredible if these debates - so important to the integrity of our nation - are not available to watch, in real time, across the nation. If BBC News does not broadcast them that would be reason enough to take away the licence fee, to my mind.

This is what the BBC is FOR. If they don't realise this in Portland Place, privatise their asses.

But people outside of scotland dont care, even people in scotland are bored to death of the indyref.

F*ck the plebs. This is the the outright future of the UK which is at stake. How can that not be of paramount national importance, and therefore worthy of broadcast on just one of our 7 state-funded TV channels, perhaps the one dedicated to "News", or *Parliament*?

It beggars belief that the British Broadcasting Corporation won't broadcast this across Britain.

If this country was America, and there was a debate on, say, the proposed and imminent secession of Texas or California, of COURSE this debate would be broadcast nationwide by one of their news channels.

If the BBC flubs this, then the BBC is finished. The model will have failed the ultimate test.

Yes, but this is going on for so long that people don't want to listen to another indyref political program, in scotland its being going on for 3 years, imagine if you had to watch and listen everyday to the election campaign for the next GE for 3 whole years, you would have gone bonkers.

And that is one of the factors indyref polls aren't moving.

Luckyguy1983

SeanT said:

Interesting convo about Britain's remaining overseas possession on the prior thread - St Helena, Falklands etc

The curious thing I've noted is that, although these isolated specks may seem irrelevant, even irritating, at the moment, they may ultimately be worth every pound we spend defending them - times ten - because their very isolation means they confer ownership of vast areas of the surrounding ocean floor on the colonial power. The UK.

And given that the sea bed is going to be the new and lucrative frontier for shale gas, tight oil, weird methane globules, this could equal trillions of $.

We need to hold on to them for noble reasons of democracy and self determination. Then ruthlessly exploit them.

Yes. And it seems obvious to me that we should just see what Argentina's price is for letting us get this oil out of the sea. They can't invade, we can't defend, surely their cash-strapped government will accept a percentage of revenue.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wow, what a disgrace of a report at news at 10.

Asking a young Israeli pilot a whole raft of questions on the level of "how do you sleep at night" (and yes that is a direct quote).

Now whatever you think about the conflict, who is right, who is wrong, etc, asking somebody who is called up by their country to fight stuff like that is totally and utterly unfair and also you know what the answer will be. That isn't unbiased reporting / questioning and is clearly taking sides and with a clear agenda.

They are deliberately targeting and slaughtering innocent Gazan kids. Seems a perfectly fair question to me.

If Israelis, Zionists and Jews don't like this shit, there is a clear answer: Stop Killing the Children

Perhaps we should have refrained from asking probing questions of Waffen SS members, on the grounds that they were "serving their country"?

When the same journalist starts asking members of Hamas and Al-Qassam Brigade the same questions in regards to firing rockets and constructing tunnels whose only function is to cross into Israel in order to kill innocent Israelis, I will be less disgusted.

And I say that as somebody who is extremely disturbed by the whole conflict. I say this with the opinion that we have long since past any semblance of who is right or wrong, in my humble opinion they are both are wrong. How, if ever, they have get past this, I have no idea, but asking some guy who has no power to change it emotive questions in an ambush interview doesn't help anybody.

DavidL

Canvassing in Carnoustie tonight. Definitely the closest area I have seen. If you were pessimistic about the won't says yes might even have edged it.

Dundee and parts of Angus may well vote yes. At the very least they will be very close. The borders, Aberdeen and most of the highlands will vote no. I think Edinburgh will too. Everything depends on Glasgow and the surrounding central belt. This really is not over.

felix

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Wow, what a disgrace of a report at news at 10.

Asking a young Israeli pilot a whole raft of questions on the level of "how do you sleep at night" (and yes that is a direct quote).

Now whatever you think about the conflict, who is right, who is wrong, etc, asking somebody who is called up by their country to fight stuff like that is totally and utterly unfair and also you know what the answer will be. That isn't unbiased reporting / questioning and is clearly taking sides and with a clear agenda.

They are deliberately targeting and slaughtering innocent Gazan kids. Seems a perfectly fair question to me.

If Israelis, Zionists and Jews don't like this shit, there is a clear answer: Stop Killing the Children

Perhaps we should have refrained from asking probing questions of Waffen SS members, on the grounds that they were "serving their country"?

When the same journalist starts asking members of Hamas and Al-Qassam Brigade the same questions in regards to firing rockets and constructing tunnels whose only function is to cross into Israel in order to kill innocent Israelis, I will be less disgusted.

And I say that as somebody who is extremely disturbed by the whole conflict. I say this with the opinion that we have long since past any semblance of who is right or wrong, in my humble opinion they are both are wrong. How, if ever, they have get past this, I have no idea, but asking some guy who has no power to change it emotive questions in an ambush interview doesn't help anybody.

A sane post on a difficult subject. So much better than the inane nonsense of others.

RobD

SeanT said:

Apols to the mods for the unmediated image, still not sure how to link pics so it doesn't offend.

If you delete the http before the link it might stop Vanilla from auto-formatting it. And I think you really should care if there is manipulation behind these images (i.e. out of context).

Speedy

Well SeanT I hope you are happy now:

NBC News ‏@NBCNews 5m
JUST IN: U.S., UN officials announce 72-hour Gaza ceasefire

Y0kel

I must inform the Israelis they missed killing that child pictured sleeping outside the hospital. You'd think with all their tech they'd have had that kid well in their sights.

Poor show by them really.

DavidL

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Canvassing in Carnoustie tonight. Definitely the closest area I have seen. If you were pessimistic about the won't says yes might even have edged it.

Dundee and parts of Angus may well vote yes. At the very least they will be very close. The borders, Aberdeen and most of the highlands will vote no. I think Edinburgh will too. Everything depends on Glasgow and the surrounding central belt. This really is not over.

Chill. Has canvassing ever proved more informative than polling, in all of electoral history? The former is mentally filtered by the fearful or partisan activist - who will exaggerate either way - the latter is more-or-less scientific.

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Canvassing in Carnoustie tonight. Definitely the closest area I have seen. If you were pessimistic about the won't says yes might even have edged it.

Dundee and parts of Angus may well vote yes. At the very least they will be very close. The borders, Aberdeen and most of the highlands will vote no. I think Edinburgh will too. Everything depends on Glasgow and the surrounding central belt. This really is not over.

Chill. Has canvassing ever proved more informative than polling, in all of electoral history? The former is mentally filtered by the fearful or partisan activist - who will exaggerate either way - the latter is more-or-less scientific.

Canvassing in my experience tends to over optimism. Some people will say yes just to get you away from the door quicker. Don't knows or not really sures end up being recorded as supporters.

But the polling of this is difficult because there is no precedent. Weighting by past voting preference seems problematic to me. Weighting by social grouping etc which I think Ipsos do should be better but polling in Scotland has been poor and underfunded for a long time.

Speaking to those working for BT there is a fair degree of confidence but no one I have spoken to thinks this is going to be other than close.

RobD

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Apols to the mods for the unmediated image, still not sure how to link pics so it doesn't offend.

If you delete the http before the link it might stop Vanilla from auto-formatting it. And I think you really should care if there is manipulation behind these images (i.e. out of context).

Trouble is, the evidence so far is that the images are real and it is Zionist apologists - like felix on here - who are falsely claiming they are faked.

FYI

http://www.theatlantic.com/personal/archive/2014/07/an-apology-on-the-images-emerging-from-gaza/375324/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2014/07/30/the-difficulty-with-david-frums-apology-for-bogus-photo-fakery-allegations/

Scumbag.

I've seen examples where it has been shown to be faked, but I am sure there are also real examples. Not sure what to believe so I take everything with a cynical pinch of salt. This whole situation needs to be sorted out, but have little hope that it will be in the near future.

Y0kel

72 hour ceasefire reportedly in Gaza conflict.

Tim_B

In today's mail I received an envelope advertising a "free pre-paid cremation".

Some outfit called the Neptune Society has a monthy raffle to win a pre-paid cremation.

Edin_Rokz

SeanT said:

Edin_Rokz said:

MikeSmithson said:

Surely one of the news channels - BBC or Sky - will show the debate live.

Nope! Salmond "decreed" that the debate was going on STV. He refused to go on BBC, although since he is such good buddies with Murdoch, I am surprised he didn't agree to SKY. Darling, I understand doesn't really mind where, he's looking forward to having some fun.

So it really will be unwatchable elsewhere in the UK? Bizarre and astonishing.

Can't we set up a pb channel to live-torrent this crap? How hard is it to tap into STV's analogue feed and stream it on the Net? F*ck that creepy fat coward Alex Salmond. Ugh.

Er! Sorry if I am mistaken, but weren't you one of the "creepy fat coward"s backers? If not, again, sorry, but welcome to the Eckland where police wear Glocks to minor incidents or buy sandwiches in Subway. Where MacAskill decides to change the legal system and close local courts. Where the Scottish NHS is derided because it is (falsely) under Westminster control and, unfortunately for those as patients and staff, slowly, but surely, going tits up (and yes, I am talking not only of others, but by my own experiences). Ad Nauseum!

Welcome to what we in Scotland are beginning to realise is Fantasy Eckland.

foxinsoxuk

Y0kel said:

72 hour ceasefire reportedly in Gaza conflict.

Excellent news, I hope that both sides respect it.

Speedy

foxinsoxuk said:

Y0kel said:

72 hour ceasefire reportedly in Gaza conflict.

Excellent news, I hope that both sides respect it.

Its not until 8am Gaza time or in about another 7 hours, judging by past ceasefires both sides will try to throw the kitchen sink at each other before it starts.

Scott_P

Edin_Rokz said:

Welcome to what we in Scotland are beginning to realise is Fantasy Eckland.

Fun day with the YeSNPers on Twitter

Blocked by several of them. Can't have any heresy in the feeds...

Neil

Scott_P said:

Edin_Rokz said:

Welcome to what we in Scotland are beginning to realise is Fantasy Eckland.

Fun day with the YeSNPers on Twitter

Blocked by several of them. Can't have any heresy in the feeds...

Are you sure it wasnt the trolling rather than the heresy that put them off?

Speedy

Scott_P said:

Edin_Rokz said:

Welcome to what we in Scotland are beginning to realise is Fantasy Eckland.

Fun day with the YeSNPers on Twitter

Blocked by several of them. Can't have any heresy in the feeds...

Like this guy's reference to mystery polls that show YES miles ahead (like Romney's unskewed polls):

Jim Edwards @JasDEdwards · 2h
YES Scotland groups who post polls clearly shows YES in clear lead yet "official polls" show the opposite I know who I believe bring it on!

Scott_P

Neil said:

Are you sure it wasnt the trolling rather than the heresy that put them off?

No

Apparently "UKIP in kilts" is an affront to Saint Eck himself

foxinsoxuk

Scott_P said:

Neil said:

Are you sure it wasnt the trolling rather than the heresy that put them off?

No

Apparently "UKIP in kilts" is an affront to Saint Eck himself

The prospect of Salmond "better off out" is a rather scary one.

Edin_Rokz

Scott_P said:

Edin_Rokz said:

Welcome to what we in Scotland are beginning to realise is Fantasy Eckland.

Fun day with the YeSNPers on Twitter

Blocked by several of them. Can't have any heresy in the feeds...

Tut, Tut! The word of Eck is paramount and written down on slabs of stone from Ailsa Craig. How can it not be believed. Your toes will soon be curling.

Tim_B

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Scott_P

Edin_Rokz said:

Tut, Tut! The word of Eck is paramount and written down on slabs of stone from Ailsa Craig. How can it not be believed. Your toes will soon be curling.

It's their role as ambassadors for the SNP vision of a separate Scotland that is the most depressing part

No dissent

No debate

foxinsoxuk

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Never has so much been said by so few to so little effect. The polls have budged very little over two years.

The end is in sight, and I look forward to a more constructive approach from Salmond after the vote.

GIN1138

MonikerDiCanio said:

Scott_P said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

"success would seem to be beyond Mr Salmond’s grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on Tuesday"

There will be tears before bedtime...

Tears for feartie;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10999560/Alex-Salmond-rejects-two-BBC-debates-with-Alistair-Darling.html

Alex Salmond running scared? Surely such a thing couldn't happen!

MarqueeMark

SeanT said:

JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.

You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.

Peston has a most peculiar style for a presenter. A combination of diffidence, boredom and frustration, like he is continually explaining quantum mechanics to a group of pensioners who were expecting the bingo...

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.

You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.

Peston has a most peculiar style for a presenter. A combination of diffidence, boredom and frustration, like he is continually explaining quantum mechanics to a group of pensioners who were expecting the bingo...

He has an unusual style, but interesting set of pieces tonight rather than the usual Paxman sneering.

Scott_P

@wallaceme: Splendid skewering of an author talking nonsense about the Scottish referendum, by @alexmassie http://t.co/BCVHdoC3yj

Speedy

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.

You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.

Peston has a most peculiar style for a presenter. A combination of diffidence, boredom and frustration, like he is continually explaining quantum mechanics to a group of pensioners who were expecting the bingo...

That is why he was good as a business editor but not good as a presenter.

Flightpath

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

JFTR, Robert Peston is a dreadful presenter of Newsnight. Just shows how good, if effortlessly lazy, Jezza Paxman was, and still is, and the lunacy of his retirement.

You need authority to do the job. Peston has zero, by nature. He is not an alpha male.

Peston has a most peculiar style for a presenter. A combination of diffidence, boredom and frustration, like he is continually explaining quantum mechanics to a group of pensioners who were expecting the bingo...

The best thing is not to watch Newsnight. I am in a far happier frame of mind as a result - although that might have something to do with not watching Question Time as well.

Edin_Rokz

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Don't know about the rest of the UK, but I can assure you, most people in Scotland are totally fed up with it.

The majority, for both Yes and No already know how they will vote.

To maintain social peace, they are not prepared to discuss their decisions to their family, friends and work colleagues for fear of breaking up long term relationships.

The media, on the other hand, have to sell papers and get people watching TV programmes.

Speedy

First result for tonight:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 1m
Thurmaston (Charnwood):
LAB GAIN from CON.

foxinsoxuk

Speedy said:

First result for tonight:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 1m
Thurmaston (Charnwood):
LAB GAIN from CON.

*buffs nails quietly* in the TSE style

GIN1138

Re. STV debate, somebody is bound to record it and put it on YouTube.

That may be the best way for the rest of us to see it.

MarkSenior

Speedy said:

First result for tonight:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 1m
Thurmaston (Charnwood):
LAB GAIN from CON.

Expected as Labour won the identical CC seat in 2013 by 1094 votes to 971

MikeK

#UKIP achieves 29.5% from a standing start at the #Thurmaston by-election (#Charnwood BC, Leicestershire):
46.5% LAB
29.5% #UKIP
24.0% CON

NickPalmer

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Don't think most people in England are really following it at all - they are vaguely aware it's happening, but couldn't tell you when it will be held or who's winning. They're significantly more interested in Gaza, which is fair enough as people are getting killed as opposed to endlessly discussing a possible constitutional change.

Charles

SeanT said:

Interesting convo about Britain's remaining overseas possession on the prior thread - St Helena, Falklands etc

The curious thing I've noted is that, although these isolated specks may seem irrelevant, even irritating, at the moment, they may ultimately be worth every pound we spend defending them - times ten - because their very isolation means they confer ownership of vast areas of the surrounding ocean floor on the colonial power. The UK.

And given that the sea bed is going to be the new and lucrative frontier for shale gas, tight oil, weird methane globules, this could equal trillions of $.

We need to hold on to them for noble reasons of democracy and self determination. Then ruthlessly exploit them.

Sorry I missed the convo - would have been very interesting.

Don't forget the strategic value as well as the economic. They were originally settled to provide watering places for ships. Now they are great refuelling strips and remote airbases.

For instance, extending the runway at St. Helena will allow us to fly planes direct from the UK to the Falklands (with a refuel at St. Helena) - massively increases our reach.

And IIRC, Diego de Garcia (?sp) was a refuelling point for Stealth bombers operating out of Missouri - they would conduct their mission in Iraq or Afghanistan before heading down to DdG to refuel & then taking the return trip to the MidWest

Speedy

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

First result for tonight:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 1m
Thurmaston (Charnwood):
LAB GAIN from CON.

Expected as Labour won the identical CC seat in 2013 by 1094 votes to 971

Well that doesnt look like 1094 to 971:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 50s
Thurmaston (Charnwood) result:
LAB - 42.6% (-4.3)
UKIP - 27.0% (+27.0)
CON - 22.0% (-31.0)
BNP - 5.2% (+5.2)
BDEM - 3.2% (+3.2)

foxinsoxuk

MikeK said:

#UKIP achieves 29.5% from a standing start at the #Thurmaston by-election (#Charnwood BC, Leicestershire):
46.5% LAB
29.5% #UKIP
24.0% CON

Most of Charnwood is either Loughborough, or the rather posh villages of the Charnwood Forest, but Thurmaston is part of the Leicester conurbation.

I think this is a bellwether area, being middle England literally as well as figuratively, and while this is not a marginal constituency, it is demographicly that the Tories need to win to get a majority. It may point to BJO being more powerful than Jacks well respected ARSE

MarkSenior

Speedy said:

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

First result for tonight:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 1m
Thurmaston (Charnwood):
LAB GAIN from CON.

Expected as Labour won the identical CC seat in 2013 by 1094 votes to 971

Well that doesnt look like 1094 to 971:

#BritainElects @britainelects · 50s
Thurmaston (Charnwood) result:
LAB - 42.6% (-4.3)
UKIP - 27.0% (+27.0)
CON - 22.0% (-31.0)
BNP - 5.2% (+5.2)
BDEM - 3.2% (+3.2)

Lab 783 UKIP 496 Con 404 BNP 95 Brit Dem 58

Edin_Rokz

NickPalmer said:

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Don't think most people in England are really following it at all - they are vaguely aware it's happening, but couldn't tell you when it will be held or who's winning. They're significantly more interested in Gaza, which is fair enough as people are getting killed as opposed to endlessly discussing a possible constitutional change.

Nay, Nay and thrice, Nay! Eck would have the world believe that when Scotland becomes Independent it will be a world changing event. Once Scotland breaks away, the German Landers, the Spanish, French and Italian provinces will follow. The US will break up into the individual states, etc., etc.. Ok, I am exaggerating a little....well, probably a lot, but I suspect it has crossed his mind.

England, could and probably would get it's own devolved parliament in a rUK, and the pressure would be on to devolve power to the regions and cities within England.

Even now, there are nascent organisations in the South West and North East considering this.

This all may be under the radar at the moment, but......

AndyJS

Just spent two weeks in Denmark, Netherlands, Germany and Belgium without any aggravation of any kind.

First things that happens in the UK is I got asked a whole lot of intrusive questions by a stop and search person at St Pancras. Am asked to explain jottings I've made in a notebook.

Not a great advert for the UK IMO. Shows how paranoid and distrustful we are as a nation.

kle4

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

People can be both in fact. Sick to death of it, but too interested, emotionally, in the outcome to not pay attention.

Speedy

Edin_Rokz said:

NickPalmer said:

Tim_B said:

Is there a high level of interest in the rest of the UK in Scottish independence, or are they sick to death of hearing about it and just want it over?

Don't think most people in England are really following it at all - they are vaguely aware it's happening, but couldn't tell you when it will be held or who's winning. They're significantly more interested in Gaza, which is fair enough as people are getting killed as opposed to endlessly discussing a possible constitutional change.

Nay, Nay and thrice, Nay! Eck would have the world believe that when Scotland becomes Independent it will be a world changing event. Once Scotland breaks away, the German Landers, the Spanish, French and Italian provinces will follow. The US will break up into the individual states, etc., etc.. Ok, I am exaggerating a little....well, probably a lot, but I suspect it has crossed his mind.

England, could and probably would get it's own devolved parliament in a rUK, and the pressure would be on to devolve power to the regions and cities within England.

Even now, there are nascent organisations in the South West and North East considering this.

This all may be under the radar at the moment, but......

Yeah just wait for the republic of tunbridge wells and its rallying cry "liberty equality gardening".

RobD

SeanT said:

Look at this rendering of Canary Wharf Crossrail Station.

http://74f85f59f39b887b696f-ab656259048fb93837ecc0ecbcf0c557.r23.cf3.rackcdn.com//assets/library/image/6/medium/61270_canary_wharf_station-architects_impression.jpg …


THIS STATION IS NEARLY FINISHED.

London Astonishes.

I've been watching the BBC documentary, absolutely love it... kinda want to be a civil engineer now!

Life_ina_market_town

AndyJS said:

First things that happens in the UK is I got asked a whole lot of intrusive questions by a stop and search person at St Pancras. Am asked to explain jottings I've made in a notebook.

Not a great advert for the UK IMO. Shows how paranoid and distrustful we are as a nation.

Indeed. The resort to stop and search is excessive, particularly in Scotland. Did you find out under what power you were stopped?

Speedy

Second result tonight:

LAB gain from UKIP

#BritainElects @britainelects · 8s
Pennydarren (Merthyr Tydfil) vote result:
LAB - 257
IND - 235
IND - 228
CON - 62
LDEM - 40

sarissa

MonikerDiCanio said:

YESNP dropping like a millstone;

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-no-campaign-up-57-to-43-according-to-latest-poll-of-polls-9641193.html

Others seer it differently based on the trengs to date:

"The distribution of possible outcomes (added - of Yes vote share) is centered at 49 percent, and the 95 percent predictive interval ranges from 44 percent to 54 percent."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/30/scottish-independence-vote-is-too-close-to-call/

Sunil_Prasannan

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Look at this rendering of Canary Wharf Crossrail Station.

http://74f85f59f39b887b696f-ab656259048fb93837ecc0ecbcf0c557.r23.cf3.rackcdn.com//assets/library/image/6/medium/61270_canary_wharf_station-architects_impression.jpg …


THIS STATION IS NEARLY FINISHED.

London Astonishes.

I've been watching the BBC documentary, absolutely love it... kinda want to be a civil engineer now!

It is phenomenal. We criticise ourselves for not having the ambition of our Victorian ancestors, but Crossrail is exactly that - the kind of far-sighted, gob-smacking project that a Brunel would have envisaged. And it says to the world: London is Big, but it is going to get Bigger: one of the very greatest cities. Perhaps the greatest.

Love it.

The incredible station that is Crossrail Canary Wharf is nearly finished, already.

http://tinyurl.com/n7p7lj4

Best view of the new station is from West India Quay DLR station - took some pics a few months back but never got round to tweeting! But trains won't run till 2018 or so.

And near Stratford, the DLR is being re-routed slightly to make way for the eastern tunnel portal for the central section between Stratford and Paddington. This has necessitated the replacement of Pudding Mill Lane DLR with a new station.

DecrepitJohnL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Look at this rendering of Canary Wharf Crossrail Station.

http://74f85f59f39b887b696f-ab656259048fb93837ecc0ecbcf0c557.r23.cf3.rackcdn.com//assets/library/image/6/medium/61270_canary_wharf_station-architects_impression.jpg …


THIS STATION IS NEARLY FINISHED.

London Astonishes.

I've been watching the BBC documentary, absolutely love it... kinda want to be a civil engineer now!

It is phenomenal. We criticise ourselves for not having the ambition of our Victorian ancestors, but Crossrail is exactly that - the kind of far-sighted, gob-smacking project that a Brunel would have envisaged. And it says to the world: London is Big, but it is going to get Bigger: one of the very greatest cities. Perhaps the greatest.

Love it.

The incredible station that is Crossrail Canary Wharf is nearly finished, already.

http://tinyurl.com/n7p7lj4

Best view of the new station is from West India Quay DLR station - took some pics a few months back but never got round to tweeting! But trains won't run till 2018 or so.

And near Stratford, the DLR is being re-routed slightly to make way for the eastern tunnel portal for the central section between Stratford and Paddington. This has necessitated the replacement of Pudding Mill Lane DLR with a new station.

Shame! Pudding Mill Lane is a great name for a station.

Sunil_Prasannan

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Look at this rendering of Canary Wharf Crossrail Station.

http://74f85f59f39b887b696f-ab656259048fb93837ecc0ecbcf0c557.r23.cf3.rackcdn.com//assets/library/image/6/medium/61270_canary_wharf_station-architects_impression.jpg …


THIS STATION IS NEARLY FINISHED.

London Astonishes.

I've been watching the BBC documentary, absolutely love it... kinda want to be a civil engineer now!

It is phenomenal. We criticise ourselves for not having the ambition of our Victorian ancestors, but Crossrail is exactly that - the kind of far-sighted, gob-smacking project that a Brunel would have envisaged. And it says to the world: London is Big, but it is going to get Bigger: one of the very greatest cities. Perhaps the greatest.

Love it.

The incredible station that is Crossrail Canary Wharf is nearly finished, already.

http://tinyurl.com/n7p7lj4

Best view of the new station is from West India Quay DLR station - took some pics a few months back but never got round to tweeting! But trains won't run till 2018 or so.

And near Stratford, the DLR is being re-routed slightly to make way for the eastern tunnel portal for the central section between Stratford and Paddington. This has necessitated the replacement of Pudding Mill Lane DLR with a new station.

Shame! Pudding Mill Lane is a great name for a station.

Which is probably why the new station retains the original name!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pudding_Mill_Lane_DLR_station

London's newest railway station actually open to rail services.

HYUFD

Speedy Though Hillary still beats him in every other state, and is more electable than Warren. Don't forget either Bill Clinton lost Colorado to Dole in 1996 and Hillary lost it to Obama in the caucuses, Colorado is not Clinton country

JohnLoony

(OT)
(statistics as requested)

As returning officer for the Worldwide Association for the Assessment, Appreciation and Advancement of Gorgeousness and Hunkiness (WAAAAGH), I hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate in the 12 months from August 2013 to July 2014 (and the changes since last month) was as follows:

1. Daniel Radcliffe 116 (+5)
2. Gareth Bale 82 (-6)
3. Ivan Garcia 74 (-1)
4. Peter Phillips 64 (+6)
5. Prince Louis of Luxembourg 50 (-3)
6. (up 1) Alex Pettyfer 29 (+1)
7. (up 1) Dane DeHaan 28 (+0)
8. (down 2) Prince Harry 27 (-10)
9. Skandar Keynes 26 (+0)
10. Ben Hardy 20 (+6)
11. Shaun Smith 12 (+0)
12. Jamie Bell 12 (+1)
13. Liam Payne 6 (+0)
14. Danny Casey 5 (+0)
15. Gil Yehezkel 5 (+1)
16. Austin Butler 4 (+0)
17. James Alexandrou 4 (+0)
18. Adam Gemili 2 (new entrant)

Total 566 (+2)

surbiton

Labour winning every seat.

EiCiPM

Tim_B

CNN just announced that a medical charter plane has left Atlanta on its way to Liberia to bring back multiple patients with Ebola to Emory University. Emory is very close to the CDC.

Maybe I'll avoid downtown for a while......

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy Though Hillary still beats him in every other state, and is more electable than Warren. Don't forget either Bill Clinton lost Colorado to Dole in 1996 and Hillary lost it to Obama in the caucuses, Colorado is not Clinton country

Well a 5th state poll today, a first from California, confirms my suspicions that america is returning somewhat to the pre-Obama era or even pre-Bush W. of presidential politics:

Clinton 49%
Paul 40%

Paul 44%
Warren 33%

Obama won it 60 to 37 last time.
Most amazing is that without Hillary the democrats would also lose California in a presidential election to the republicans.

MrJones

Tim_B said:

CNN just announced that a medical charter plane has left Atlanta on its way to Liberia to bring back multiple patients with Ebola to Emory University. Emory is very close to the CDC.

Maybe I'll avoid downtown for a while......

what could possibly go wrong

Pulpstar

JohnLoony said:

(OT)
(statistics as requested)

As returning officer for the Worldwide Association for the Assessment, Appreciation and Advancement of Gorgeousness and Hunkiness (WAAAAGH), I hereby give notice that the number of votes cast for each candidate in the 12 months from August 2013 to July 2014 (and the changes since last month) was as follows:

1. Daniel Radcliffe 116 (+5)
2. Gareth Bale 82 (-6)
3. Ivan Garcia 74 (-1)
4. Peter Phillips 64 (+6)
5. Prince Louis of Luxembourg 50 (-3)
6. (up 1) Alex Pettyfer 29 (+1)
7. (up 1) Dane DeHaan 28 (+0)
8. (down 2) Prince Harry 27 (-10)
9. Skandar Keynes 26 (+0)
10. Ben Hardy 20 (+6)
11. Shaun Smith 12 (+0)
12. Jamie Bell 12 (+1)
13. Liam Payne 6 (+0)
14. Danny Casey 5 (+0)
15. Gil Yehezkel 5 (+1)
16. Austin Butler 4 (+0)
17. James Alexandrou 4 (+0)
18. Adam Gemili 2 (new entrant)

Total 566 (+2)

What happened to Tom Daley !

HYUFD

Speedy Well Hillary still leads Paul more in California than she does nationally, and Warren is basically Dukakis in a skirt, and he of course lost the golden state to Bush 41. Indeed, California used to be a republican state, from IKE's victory in 1952 until Clinton's win in 1992 the GOP only lost California once, in 1964 when LBJ trounced Goldwater

HYUFD

JohnLooney Daniel Radcliffe is an OK actor, but good looking? He is pretty average, you see better looking men and women on the average high street!

HYUFD

Looks like the indyref is heading towards a 60-40 result, unless Salmond trounces Darling on Tuesday, but as he is expected to win a better than expected Darling performance could actually boost No

Pulpstar

HYUFD said:

Looks like the indyref is heading towards a 60-40 result, unless Salmond trounces Darling on Tuesday, but as he is expected to win a better than expected Darling performance could actually boost No

The referendum isn't over till Nicki Sturgeon and Johann Lamont sing a duet.