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Four of the five latest VI polls have the Tory lead narrowing – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited July 2021 in General
imageFour of the five latest VI polls have the Tory lead narrowing – politicalbetting.com

For a non-election campaign period, there has been a rush of polls all but one of which have the Tory lead narrowing. The most striking is from Survation that a week and a half ago had a CON lead of 11% – that’s now down to just two.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Surely not first?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    1st. Unlike Imperial modelling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    Third, like the LibDems in England!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rottenborough said:

    1st. Unlike Imperial modelling.

    Amateurish. Like Imperial modelling.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2021
    FPT @stodge
    stodge said:

    I have to say I loved the usual suspects complaining how bad John McDonnell would have been as Chancellor during the pandemic.

    Imagine how he'd have to have used public money to bail out the public transport operators and nationalised the likes of TfL, Crossrail and the other rail "franchises"....

    Oh wait....

    Yes, but he’d have enjoyed it
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Possibly the disappointment of England losing another penalty shoot out in the European football.
    If England had won, there would be a significant feel good factor.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

    How times have changed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    pigeon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

    How times have changed.
    The irony of Labour accusing the Tories of putting a tax on jobs in the near future wasn't lost on either of us.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,507
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    (FPT)
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on postwar China history. Is it accurate ?
    https://twitter.com/ernestleungmt/status/1419500266504687621

    Anyone know enough to comment ?

    It’s to put it mildly a very optimistic and cheery analysis of what was a pretty dark and brutal time in Manchuria. By focusing on the industrial successes, it rather overlooks the fact that under three different regimes - the Japanese, the Soviets and finally the Maoists - the population were reduced to little better than slavery, starved of food and frequently killed.

    The same could be said of North Korea, or indeed of China and the Soviet Union itself, of course.
    Understood; in this context it’s always seemed to me there’s not a huge difference between the state socialism of the era and fascism.

    It’s how the postwar events unravelled that I’m hazy on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
    You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

    It’s not hugely generous

    I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,750
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,155
    All politics being relative, I suspect that the narrowing is real, that the government, simply because it is the government, has no foreseeable easy wins ahead (coming out of lockdown given that there is no genuine 'This Is Over' day is much harder than getting into it); social care can always be portrayed as either dither or the wrong solution, Brexit may provide few clear victories. (A clear win over the NI issue would help). Combine that with a government that appears to be in a conspiracy with itself to set fire to its trousers on every occasion the figures remain remarkably stable, and sub optimal for everyone, but marginally worse for Labour.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
    In round numbers, about a third of the electorate is pensionable and fully half of it is over 55 (most of whom will therefore be pensionable by the end of the decade.)

    Age is the main predictor of political affiliation. The retired break very heavily for the Conservatives.

    I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that the triple lock is left well alone. The extra expense will likely be "balanced" by one or two token initiatives (about tuppence ha'penny extra for after school clubs, or some such thing) to make it look as if the Government also cares about the fate of the young. But it doesn't, of course.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Charles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
    You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

    It’s not hugely generous

    I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa
    It's not hugely generous. But that's not really the point. Of course it is the argument that people opposing attempts to try to exploit the suspension of the triple lock will deploy to maximum effect.

    If the basic state pension is considered too low, then the solution is to raise it on a one off basis. And spell out the consequences. Unless i suppose, what is really going on is that the triple lock exists to avoid having to do that...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Why not just make him Chief Whip?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,517
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    If the aim is a united Ireland - good call!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    edited July 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    londonpubman said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
    The inflation component is RPI not CPI...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

    Somebody might sho..

    No, i won't go there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Why not just make him Chief Whip?
    His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Why not just make him Chief Whip?
    His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.
    Wouldn't that though undermine the argument that he can't afford a disaffected one on the backbenches?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Why not just make him Chief Whip?
    His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.
    Wouldn't that though undermine the argument that he can't afford a disaffected one on the backbenches?
    No, he's good at winning leadership contests, that makes him awkward for the PM.

    Plus with a public inquiry on Covid-19 on the horizon Williamson may wish to get his retaliation in first.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
    But the state pension is already below the minimum wage. Tories here speak of it as if Rishi is forcing gold doubloons into pensioners' hands. Of course, for the affluent middle classes, the state pension might be pin money on top of generous private pensions or other sources of wealth. If pensions are unaffordable, which is not actually proven, then rather than attack poor pensioners, it might be better to look at other solutions such as restricting tax relief on contributions, or means-testing state pensions, or charging NI as well as income tax on payments. (Note I'm not advocating these in particular, but am sceptical of attacks on poor pensioners or the triple lock in general.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,384
    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

    Somebody might sho..

    No, i won't go there.
    Show themselves to be a blithering imbecile, I take it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,839
    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

    Yes I'm kidding, but there's not many other jobs in the cabinet for Johnson to move Williamson to.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,109
    edited July 2021
    I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

    Armaggedon???
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
    It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

    That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,642
    edited July 2021
    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Sounds like more good news.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    Rusbridger returns to editing.


    Alan Rusbridger to be the next editor of Prospect magazine
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/other/alan-rusbridger-to-be-the-next-editor-of-prospect-magazine
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,507
    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Hmm, that's really interesting. I really wish the government would give us this kind of information up front rather than having to wait for it to be leaked. If only we had a media class capable of asking the scientists these kinds of questions.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    dixiedean said:

    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

    Somebody might sho..

    No, i won't go there.
    Show themselves to be a blithering imbecile, I take it?
    This is Northern Ireland. I'm thinking a bit more simplistically and stereotypically.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    squareroot2 said:

    I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

    Armaggedon???

    Lot of people on here desperate for LAB to go ahead! And I'm sure their day will come soon - it's mid term!

    Let's hope they are not too disappointed at the GE :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,839
    RobD said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Sounds like more good news.
    Yes, absolutely. But also another reason to be very wary of data about Covid now. I’m curious about the deaths data too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,642
    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
    It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

    That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...
    They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    RobD said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Sounds like more good news.
    Read this somewhere yesterday (possibly in relation to Scotland). Arguably explains the "not quite broken" link between cases and hospitalisations...

    (also might explain why deaths seem to be plateauing in advance of hospitalisations)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Culture, Media and Sport
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,291
    @TheScreamingEagles and his insider mate are probably wrong anyway. What the government will need to deliver on is a prosperous post-Brexit Britain, and the levelling up agenda for the red wall. Right now, Covid is a reason for not having met expectations, and voters can see and accept that, but the time will come, and probably before the next election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.


    I'm all for thinking going on about Cromwell and past atrocities can be overdone in diplomatic spats 350 years later, but that is what might be charitably termed an unwise parallel to make.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,130
    edited July 2021
    alex_ said:

    londonpubman said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
    The inflation component is RPI not CPI...
    According to the BBC, it is CPI...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    londonpubman said:

    squareroot2 said:

    I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

    Armaggedon???

    Lot of people on here desperate for LAB to go ahead! And I'm sure their day will come soon - it's mid term!

    Let's hope they are not too disappointed at the GE :lol:
    There were already leads last year, but it didn't stick.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
    It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

    That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...
    The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

    Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!! :lol:
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    alex_ said:

    londonpubman said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
    The inflation component is RPI not CPI...
    It's CPI - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    rottenborough said:

    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
    It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

    That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...
    The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

    Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!! :lol:
    Manifestoes are broken in small ways all the time, and if this was not a time they could justify a bigger break I don't know what is. If not breaching the manifesto is an argument people fall back on with anything you can pretty sure it's a weak argument if that is all that remains.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    MattW said:

    alex_ said:

    londonpubman said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
    The inflation component is RPI not CPI...
    According to the BBC, it is CPI...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530
    You were quicker than me!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,384
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    @TheScreamingEagles and his insider mate are probably wrong anyway. What the government will need to deliver on is a prosperous post-Brexit Britain, and the levelling up agenda for the red wall. Right now, Covid is a reason for not having met expectations, and voters can see and accept that, but the time will come, and probably before the next election.

    I demur. That it hasn't been achieved will be not noticed by many and excused by most before the Tories are re-elected.
    That most Tory MPs are small government free marketeers and their manifesto won't be in the slightest, in fact much the opposite, will be the story of the next Parliament.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.


    I imagine that is what some SNPers would like to do with any folk not identifying as full fat nationalists after independence. Nationalism and ethnic cleansing generally go hand in hand.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,642
    williamglenn said:

    Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

    image

    Photoshop? :D
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    Culture, Media and Sport
    Fireplaces are not really culture.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MattW said:

    alex_ said:

    londonpubman said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

    Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.
    The inflation component is RPI not CPI...
    According to the BBC, it is CPI...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530
    So it is. Oops.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited July 2021
    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

    image

    Photoshop? :D
    I think so, but there are others that definitely aren’t:

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

    image

    Photoshop? :D
    I thought it must be, but there are others:

    image
    hahahahah

    It doesn't help that he is quite small
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    RobD said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Sounds like more good news.
    Most (as in just over 50%) of the infections I've ever had that were so bad I needed antibiotics were ones I had caught in hospital. The fact that hospitals have a special term (community acquired) for the ones they didn't give you tells you everything you need to know about infection control in the NHS...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

    image

    Photoshop? :D
    I thought it must be, but there are others:

    image
    Shame he doesn't have hay fever
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,106
    Leon said:

    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

    image

    Photoshop? :D
    I thought it must be, but there are others:

    image
    hahahahah

    It doesn't help that he is quite small
    I wonder if he is a hayfever sufferer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    MaxPB said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Hmm, that's really interesting. I really wish the government would give us this kind of information up front rather than having to wait for it to be leaked. If only we had a media class capable of asking the scientists these kinds of questions.
    Telegraph: "Last month, health officials instructed NHS trusts to provide "a breakdown of the current stock of Covid patients", splitting it into those who were in hospital primarily because of the virus and those there for other reasons. So far, NHS England has failed to publish this data. "

    My bolding.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rottenborough said:

    alex_ said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

    It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.
    Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.
    I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.
    It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

    That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...
    The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

    Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!! :lol:
    I was just reading up on this though. It appears that the link to earnings was restored by Labour as part of the Pensions bill in 2007. However that bill was very careful not to commit to specific increases in various years, as opposed to "review periods" to ensure that if the pension fell behind earnings over a sustained period of time then it was incumbent on the Government to rectify this.

    It was the idiotic Tories in 2011 who took this a step further and introduced the inflexible arrangements that apply today (and chucked in the "minimum 2.5%" figure for good measure! So if they try to review it they will have to hope that nobody notices this...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    pigeon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

    How times have changed.
    The irony of Labour accusing the Tories of putting a tax on jobs in the near future wasn't lost on either of us.
    Well, all the parties are shifting positions along the tectonic plates. I just wonder how long the Conservatives can keep up their socialism.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.


    I imagine that is what some SNPers would like to do with any folk not identifying as full fat nationalists after independence. Nationalism and ethnic cleansing generally go hand in hand.
    So Thatch was on the same page as 'some SNPers'? That's an unexpected development I must say.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited July 2021
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    RobD said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I find this quite revealing...
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

    Sounds like more good news.
    Most (as in just over 50%) of the infections I've ever had that were so bad I needed antibiotics were ones I had caught in hospital. The fact that hospitals have a special term (community acquired) for the ones they didn't give you tells you everything you need to know about infection control in the NHS...
    Yep, of the people i know (knew) personally who have died of Covid, both caught it in hospital. One would almost certainly have died anyway, I think - although Covid was the officially determined cause of death, but the other was just really unlucky to have done his back in over the new year...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    Felicity Cloake's Perfect series is always a good start:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2016/aug/04/how-to-make-the-perfect-caprese-salad

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,523
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

    Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

    So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

    You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

    Last place we want Williamson.

    Yes I'm kidding, but there's not many other jobs in the cabinet for Johnson to move Williamson to.
    Drinks cabinet?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited July 2021
    Hmmm....

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/26/labour-pledges-same-rights-for-all-workers-from-day-one-of-jobs

    Me feels recruitment practices will need to become a lot more rigorous. Big risk to "take a chance" on people without the protection accorded from probation periods... Can't think that will be to the advantage of all those seeking work...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,750
    RobD said:



    They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.

    It is taxed already. If you have no other income your personal allowance covers it so you don't pay tax, but it's counted in together with whatever else you're getting.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,642
    NickPalmer said:

    RobD said:



    They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.

    It is taxed already. If you have no other income your personal allowance covers it so you don't pay tax, but it's counted in together with whatever else you're getting.
    I was more thinking with a taper.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    JFC.

    With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

    Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

    Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

    https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JFC.

    With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

    Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

    Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

    https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

    Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...
    Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


    https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JFC.

    With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

    Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

    Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

    https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

    Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?
    Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

    There's some very obvious reasons for it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

    Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread on postwar China history. Is it accurate ?
    https://twitter.com/ernestleungmt/status/1419500266504687621

    Anyone know enough to comment ?

    It’s to put it mildly a very optimistic and cheery analysis of what was a pretty dark and brutal time in Manchuria. By focusing on the industrial successes, it rather overlooks the fact that under three different regimes - the Japanese, the Soviets and finally the Maoists - the population were reduced to little better than slavery, starved of food and frequently killed.

    The same could be said of North Korea, or indeed of China and the Soviet Union itself, of course.
    Understood; in this context it’s always seemed to me there’s not a huge difference between the state socialism of the era and fascism.

    It’s how the postwar events unravelled that I’m hazy on.
    I think though that you have to consider Manchuria in this period in the context of what was happening in other areas of the region. Manchuria had been semi-detached from China and under major Russian influence in the late Romanov period, then a major site for White Russian refugees in the interwar period.

    While Manchukuo was a Japanese puppet state, was it any more oppressed than Korea, or Taiwan which were also Japanese occupied? Or large parts of China proper over the warlord period? Or indeed post war South Korea until the Seventies?

    The Soviet occupation was quite key in handing a major industrial region, and the armaments of the Japanese over to Mao's forces, at a crucial time.

    It is a fascinating twitter thread, and whatever one feels about the economic policies, it was a pivotal period in the rise of modern China.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JFC.

    With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

    Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

    Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

    https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

    Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?
    Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

    There's some very obvious reasons for it.
    But surely there's still technically a victim? Otherwise murder could be described in the right circumstances as a victimless crime?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,256
    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JFC.

    With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

    Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

    Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

    https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

    Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?
    Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

    There's some very obvious reasons for it.
    But surely there's still technically a victim? Otherwise murder could be described in the right circumstances as a victimless crime?
    There is, I think Bristol Rovers have misunderstood the nuance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...
    Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


    https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM
    How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Looks like there's been no massacre at the start of the Women's triathlon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Whaddafuk?

    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    Now @britneyspears
    can hire own lawyers: please Britney team write/tweet to all in Congress, all @POTUS
    staff, all @GavinNewsom
    staff, judges’ staff challenging whether *they personally* support the *shocking* conservatorship laws. They won't & the tide will #FreeBritney RETWEET!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,789
    Leon said:

    But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

    Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

    42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

    https://eataly.co.uk
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...
    Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


    https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM
    How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..
    I went and bought a fucking chunk of real high quality parmesan. AND A GRATER. As instructed

    But - as I feared, and as I warned you all on here, countless times - the cheese was so nice I ate it all in a day with some spare cherry tomatoes

    So now I have NO CHEESE, a USELESS GRATER, and I am SLIGHTLY FATTER

    Thanks for nuttin, PB
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

    Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

    42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

    https://eataly.co.uk
    Yes, just a little bit of that European culture...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    Felicity Cloake's Perfect series is always a good start:

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2016/aug/04/how-to-make-the-perfect-caprese-salad

    Yes, I read that, and I totally agree with most of it. If not all of it. Especially important is the Jamie Oliver touch - you don't "slice" the mozzarella, you rip it into rural chunks so it absorbs much more of the oil and tomato juices, because of more surface - like a contorted pasta shape soaking up pesto

    Who are these UTTER BARBARIANS who carefully slice the mozzarella so it "looks nice"

    PUT THEM IN PRISON
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Bound to be some crashes in the cycling in this weather.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Whaddafuk?

    Dominic Cummings
    @Dominic2306
    Now @britneyspears
    can hire own lawyers: please Britney team write/tweet to all in Congress, all @POTUS
    staff, all @GavinNewsom
    staff, judges’ staff challenging whether *they personally* support the *shocking* conservatorship laws. They won't & the tide will #FreeBritney RETWEET!

    He's not wrong.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,642
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

    I'd keep it but tax it more. The poorest will be hit hardest if you simply scrap it.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,438
    Charles said:

    alex_ said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

    However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

    If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.
    You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

    It’s not hugely generous

    I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa
    Isn't this because most pensioners don't actually have massive outgoings? I earn around the median income, if you deduct from that the income tax/ni, my commuting and mortgage costs I'm probably left with little more than the average pensioner gets, and I think I could live fairly comfortably on that.

    Granted there is a bit of an issue where persioners haven't managed to become home owners in their working lives, but that's probably better solved by targeted housing benefit than giving homeowners an extra windfall.

    I think replacing the triple lock will an uprating based on the mean of the three measures, taken over a rolling 5 year average would be a sensible compromise - it's obviously fair, but should result in windfall uplifts like the one currently on the cards.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

    First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...
    Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


    https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM
    How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..
    I went and bought a fucking chunk of real high quality parmesan. AND A GRATER. As instructed

    But - as I feared, and as I warned you all on here, countless times - the cheese was so nice I ate it all in a day with some spare cherry tomatoes

    So now I have NO CHEESE, a USELESS GRATER, and I am SLIGHTLY FATTER

    Thanks for nuttin, PB
    Christ, in extreme munchiness I've considered eating the whole Parmesan but only managed a quarter or so.
    Kudos!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    edited July 2021
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

    The poorest will be hit hardest
    Perhaps that will sell the idea to some of us.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,913
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

    I mostly agree, but the problem is some pensioners are not well-off, so you'd have to think of something for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,091
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

    Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

    42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

    https://eataly.co.uk
    Oooh. Bishopsgate

    But a 10 minute Uber away

    Grazie!
This discussion has been closed.

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