Four of the five latest VI polls have the Tory lead narrowing – politicalbetting.com

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Four of the five latest VI polls have the Tory lead narrowing – politicalbetting.com

For a non-election campaign period, there has been a rush of polls all but one of which have the Tory lead narrowing. The most striking is from Survation that a week and a half ago had a CON lead of 11% – that’s now down to just two.

Read the full story here

mwadams

Surely not first?

rottenborough

1st. Unlike Imperial modelling.

Foxy

Third, like the LibDems in England!

alex_

rottenborough said:

1st. Unlike Imperial modelling.

Amateurish. Like Imperial modelling.

Charles

FPT @stodge

stodge said:

I have to say I loved the usual suspects complaining how bad John McDonnell would have been as Chancellor during the pandemic.

Imagine how he'd have to have used public money to bail out the public transport operators and nationalised the likes of TfL, Crossrail and the other rail "franchises"....

Oh wait....

Yes, but he’d have enjoyed it

DeClare

Possibly the disappointment of England losing another penalty shoot out in the European football.
If England had won, there would be a significant feel good factor.

TheScreamingEagles

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

pigeon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

How times have changed.

TheScreamingEagles

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

How times have changed.

The irony of Labour accusing the Tories of putting a tax on jobs in the near future wasn't lost on either of us.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

alex_

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

Nigelb

(FPT)

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Interesting thread on postwar China history. Is it accurate ?
https://twitter.com/ernestleungmt/status/1419500266504687621

Anyone know enough to comment ?

It’s to put it mildly a very optimistic and cheery analysis of what was a pretty dark and brutal time in Manchuria. By focusing on the industrial successes, it rather overlooks the fact that under three different regimes - the Japanese, the Soviets and finally the Maoists - the population were reduced to little better than slavery, starved of food and frequently killed.

The same could be said of North Korea, or indeed of China and the Soviet Union itself, of course.

Understood; in this context it’s always seemed to me there’s not a huge difference between the state socialism of the era and fascism.

It’s how the postwar events unravelled that I’m hazy on.

Charles

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

It’s not hugely generous

I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa

NickPalmer

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

TheScreamingEagles

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

algarkirk

All politics being relative, I suspect that the narrowing is real, that the government, simply because it is the government, has no foreseeable easy wins ahead (coming out of lockdown given that there is no genuine 'This Is Over' day is much harder than getting into it); social care can always be portrayed as either dither or the wrong solution, Brexit may provide few clear victories. (A clear win over the NI issue would help). Combine that with a government that appears to be in a conspiracy with itself to set fire to its trousers on every occasion the figures remain remarkably stable, and sub optimal for everyone, but marginally worse for Labour.

pigeon

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

In round numbers, about a third of the electorate is pensionable and fully half of it is over 55 (most of whom will therefore be pensionable by the end of the decade.)

Age is the main predictor of political affiliation. The retired break very heavily for the Conservatives.

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that the triple lock is left well alone. The extra expense will likely be "balanced" by one or two token initiatives (about tuppence ha'penny extra for after school clubs, or some such thing) to make it look as if the Government also cares about the fate of the young. But it doesn't, of course.

alex_

Charles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

It’s not hugely generous

I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa

It's not hugely generous. But that's not really the point. Of course it is the argument that people opposing attempts to try to exploit the suspension of the triple lock will deploy to maximum effect.

If the basic state pension is considered too low, then the solution is to raise it on a one off basis. And spell out the consequences. Unless i suppose, what is really going on is that the triple lock exists to avoid having to do that...

alex_

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Why not just make him Chief Whip?

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

If the aim is a united Ireland - good call!

londonpubman

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

alex_

londonpubman said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

The inflation component is RPI not CPI...

alex_

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

Somebody might sho..

No, i won't go there.

TheScreamingEagles

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Why not just make him Chief Whip?

His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.

rottenborough

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

alex_

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Why not just make him Chief Whip?

His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.

Wouldn't that though undermine the argument that he can't afford a disaffected one on the backbenches?

TheScreamingEagles

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Why not just make him Chief Whip?

His stints as Defence and Education Secretaries have left him with no credibility with the backbenches which is something would be a bit of a hindrance for a Chief Whip.

Wouldn't that though undermine the argument that he can't afford a disaffected one on the backbenches?

No, he's good at winning leadership contests, that makes him awkward for the PM.

Plus with a public inquiry on Covid-19 on the horizon Williamson may wish to get his retaliation in first.

DecrepiterJohnL

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

But the state pension is already below the minimum wage. Tories here speak of it as if Rishi is forcing gold doubloons into pensioners' hands. Of course, for the affluent middle classes, the state pension might be pin money on top of generous private pensions or other sources of wealth. If pensions are unaffordable, which is not actually proven, then rather than attack poor pensioners, it might be better to look at other solutions such as restricting tax relief on contributions, or means-testing state pensions, or charging NI as well as income tax on payments. (Note I'm not advocating these in particular, but am sceptical of attacks on poor pensioners or the triple lock in general.)

dixiedean

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

Somebody might sho..

No, i won't go there.

Show themselves to be a blithering imbecile, I take it?

turbotubbs

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

TheScreamingEagles

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

Yes I'm kidding, but there's not many other jobs in the cabinet for Johnson to move Williamson to.

squareroot2

I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

Armaggedon???

alex_

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...

RobD

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Sounds like more good news.

rottenborough

Rusbridger returns to editing.


Alan Rusbridger to be the next editor of Prospect magazine
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/other/alan-rusbridger-to-be-the-next-editor-of-prospect-magazine

MaxPB

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Hmm, that's really interesting. I really wish the government would give us this kind of information up front rather than having to wait for it to be leaked. If only we had a media class capable of asking the scientists these kinds of questions.

alex_

dixiedean said:

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

Somebody might sho..

No, i won't go there.

Show themselves to be a blithering imbecile, I take it?

This is Northern Ireland. I'm thinking a bit more simplistically and stereotypically.

londonpubman

squareroot2 said:

I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

Armaggedon???

Lot of people on here desperate for LAB to go ahead! And I'm sure their day will come soon - it's mid term!

Let's hope they are not too disappointed at the GE

turbotubbs

RobD said:

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Sounds like more good news.

Yes, absolutely. But also another reason to be very wary of data about Covid now. I’m curious about the deaths data too.

RobD

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...

They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.

Theuniondivvie

Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.

alex_

RobD said:

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Sounds like more good news.

Read this somewhere yesterday (possibly in relation to Scotland). Arguably explains the "not quite broken" link between cases and hospitalisations...

(also might explain why deaths seem to be plateauing in advance of hospitalisations)

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Culture, Media and Sport

DecrepiterJohnL

@TheScreamingEagles and his insider mate are probably wrong anyway. What the government will need to deliver on is a prosperous post-Brexit Britain, and the levelling up agenda for the red wall. Right now, Covid is a reason for not having met expectations, and voters can see and accept that, but the time will come, and probably before the next election.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.

I'm all for thinking going on about Cromwell and past atrocities can be overdone in diplomatic spats 350 years later, but that is what might be charitably termed an unwise parallel to make.

MattW

alex_ said:

londonpubman said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

The inflation component is RPI not CPI...

According to the BBC, it is CPI...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530

kle4

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

I wonder how the site will react if the poll gap widens...

Armaggedon???

Lot of people on here desperate for LAB to go ahead! And I'm sure their day will come soon - it's mid term!

Let's hope they are not too disappointed at the GE

There were already leads last year, but it didn't stick.

rottenborough

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...

The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!!

londonpubman

alex_ said:

londonpubman said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

The inflation component is RPI not CPI...

It's CPI - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530

kle4

rottenborough said:

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...

The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!!

Manifestoes are broken in small ways all the time, and if this was not a time they could justify a bigger break I don't know what is. If not breaching the manifesto is an argument people fall back on with anything you can pretty sure it's a weak argument if that is all that remains.

londonpubman

MattW said:

alex_ said:

londonpubman said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

The inflation component is RPI not CPI...

According to the BBC, it is CPI...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530

You were quicker than me!

dixiedean

DecrepiterJohnL said:

@TheScreamingEagles and his insider mate are probably wrong anyway. What the government will need to deliver on is a prosperous post-Brexit Britain, and the levelling up agenda for the red wall. Right now, Covid is a reason for not having met expectations, and voters can see and accept that, but the time will come, and probably before the next election.

I demur. That it hasn't been achieved will be not noticed by many and excused by most before the Tories are re-elected.
That most Tory MPs are small government free marketeers and their manifesto won't be in the slightest, in fact much the opposite, will be the story of the next Parliament.

williamglenn

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Nigel_Foremain

Theuniondivvie said:

Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.

I imagine that is what some SNPers would like to do with any folk not identifying as full fat nationalists after independence. Nationalism and ethnic cleansing generally go hand in hand.

RobD

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

Leon

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

rottenborough

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

Culture, Media and Sport

Fireplaces are not really culture.

alex_

MattW said:

alex_ said:

londonpubman said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

It will just be CPI this time (April 2022). The CPI measure is taken at the Sept rate which will be around 4% for Sept 2021. So effectively a 'double lock' as the other measure is a 2.5% minimum increase.

Also mentioned in this discussion - the possible NI increase to pay for social care is indeed unlikely to happen. But it needs to be paid for. So 2% on income tax at all levels would be fairer as would affect workers and pensioners equally. But NI MAY change so that it is extended to earnings beyond state pension age. All from April 2022.

The inflation component is RPI not CPI...

According to the BBC, it is CPI...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53082530

So it is. Oops.

williamglenn

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

I think so, but there are others that definitely aren’t:

Leon

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

I thought it must be, but there are others:

hahahahah

It doesn't help that he is quite small

Fysics_Teacher

RobD said:

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Sounds like more good news.

Most (as in just over 50%) of the infections I've ever had that were so bad I needed antibiotics were ones I had caught in hospital. The fact that hospitals have a special term (community acquired) for the ones they didn't give you tells you everything you need to know about infection control in the NHS...

Nigel_Foremain

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

I thought it must be, but there are others:

Shame he doesn't have hay fever

Jonathan

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

I think so, but there are others that definitely aren’t:

Sacre fleur!

solarflare

Leon said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Macron arrives in French Polynesia:

Photoshop?

I thought it must be, but there are others:

hahahahah

It doesn't help that he is quite small

I wonder if he is a hayfever sufferer.

rottenborough

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Hmm, that's really interesting. I really wish the government would give us this kind of information up front rather than having to wait for it to be leaked. If only we had a media class capable of asking the scientists these kinds of questions.

Telegraph: "Last month, health officials instructed NHS trusts to provide "a breakdown of the current stock of Covid patients", splitting it into those who were in hospital primarily because of the virus and those there for other reasons. So far, NHS England has failed to publish this data. "

My bolding.

alex_

rottenborough said:

alex_ said:

rottenborough said:

NickPalmer said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

Yes, if the case numbers continue to drop as they currently are while cases elsewhere in the world rise the government will definitely benefit.

It also seems pretty clear that the NI rise to pay for social care is dead and so is the triple lock. It will be "suspended" for the duration of the pandemic recovery the same as the 0.7% aid target. The political calculation will be made that oldies have nowhere else to go but working people now have an alternative because Starmer, for all his faults, isn't Jez.

Sounds realistic, though I think they'll come up with a double lock - just not the component that makes it jump 8%.

I don't understand why this is seen as so difficult. Keep the triple lock but use some kind of smoothing to iron out the crazy 8% one off event that is down to the lockdown last spring.

It really shouldn't be. But presumably they're terrified of media campaigns contrasting the breaking of election promises to pensioners on meagre earnings with the examples of ministers mates who have done very well out of the pandemic thank you very much.

That the country has tried to bankrupt itself to protect the elderly doesn't get a look in...

The manifesto simply says they will keep the triple lock. It doesn't spell out how they will calculate the earned income comparison.

Mind you the manifesto also says they will NOT borrow for day to day spending!!!

I was just reading up on this though. It appears that the link to earnings was restored by Labour as part of the Pensions bill in 2007. However that bill was very careful not to commit to specific increases in various years, as opposed to "review periods" to ensure that if the pension fell behind earnings over a sustained period of time then it was incumbent on the Government to rectify this.

It was the idiotic Tories in 2011 who took this a step further and introduced the inflexible arrangements that apply today (and chucked in the "minimum 2.5%" figure for good measure! So if they try to review it they will have to hope that nobody notices this...

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

pigeon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

So, in summary: the Conservative Party is meant to lose support if it fails to put up taxes in order to fund a more generous social security system?

How times have changed.

The irony of Labour accusing the Tories of putting a tax on jobs in the near future wasn't lost on either of us.

Well, all the parties are shifting positions along the tectonic plates. I just wonder how long the Conservatives can keep up their socialism.

Theuniondivvie

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Handy reminder that Tory fuckwittedness over Ireland isn't a new thing.

I imagine that is what some SNPers would like to do with any folk not identifying as full fat nationalists after independence. Nationalism and ethnic cleansing generally go hand in hand.

So Thatch was on the same page as 'some SNPers'? That's an unexpected development I must say.

alex_

Fysics_Teacher said:

RobD said:

turbotubbs said:

I find this quite revealing...
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1419764042906972161?s=20

Sounds like more good news.

Most (as in just over 50%) of the infections I've ever had that were so bad I needed antibiotics were ones I had caught in hospital. The fact that hospitals have a special term (community acquired) for the ones they didn't give you tells you everything you need to know about infection control in the NHS...

Yep, of the people i know (knew) personally who have died of Covid, both caught it in hospital. One would almost certainly have died anyway, I think - although Covid was the officially determined cause of death, but the other was just really unlucky to have done his back in over the new year...

Benpointer

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...

Benpointer

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

Felicity Cloake's Perfect series is always a good start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2016/aug/04/how-to-make-the-perfect-caprese-salad

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The other thing that scared me from tonight's discussion.

Boris Johnson won't sack Gavin Williamson, he cannot afford to have on the backbenches a disaffected former Chief Whip and campaign manager of the winners of the last two Conservative Party leadership elections.

So move Williamson somewhere where he can do less damage, perhaps Gavin Williamson the new Northern Ireland Secretary.

You are kidding right? NI is in a very febrile state thanks to Johnson's 'oven ready' Brexit.

Last place we want Williamson.

Yes I'm kidding, but there's not many other jobs in the cabinet for Johnson to move Williamson to.

Drinks cabinet?

alex_

Hmmm....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/26/labour-pledges-same-rights-for-all-workers-from-day-one-of-jobs

Me feels recruitment practices will need to become a lot more rigorous. Big risk to "take a chance" on people without the protection accorded from probation periods... Can't think that will be to the advantage of all those seeking work...

NickPalmer

RobD said:

They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.

It is taxed already. If you have no other income your personal allowance covers it so you don't pay tax, but it's counted in together with whatever else you're getting.

RobD

NickPalmer said:

RobD said:

They should just get it over with and tax the state pension. People already raking in the money from their final salary pensions don't need the extra pittance from the government.

It is taxed already. If you have no other income your personal allowance covers it so you don't pay tax, but it's counted in together with whatever else you're getting.

I was more thinking with a taper.

TheScreamingEagles

JFC.

With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

alex_

TheScreamingEagles said:

JFC.

With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...

Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM

TheScreamingEagles

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JFC.

With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?

Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

There's some very obvious reasons for it.

Leon

But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

Foxy

Nigelb said:

(FPT)

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Interesting thread on postwar China history. Is it accurate ?
https://twitter.com/ernestleungmt/status/1419500266504687621

Anyone know enough to comment ?

It’s to put it mildly a very optimistic and cheery analysis of what was a pretty dark and brutal time in Manchuria. By focusing on the industrial successes, it rather overlooks the fact that under three different regimes - the Japanese, the Soviets and finally the Maoists - the population were reduced to little better than slavery, starved of food and frequently killed.

The same could be said of North Korea, or indeed of China and the Soviet Union itself, of course.

Understood; in this context it’s always seemed to me there’s not a huge difference between the state socialism of the era and fascism.

It’s how the postwar events unravelled that I’m hazy on.

I think though that you have to consider Manchuria in this period in the context of what was happening in other areas of the region. Manchuria had been semi-detached from China and under major Russian influence in the late Romanov period, then a major site for White Russian refugees in the interwar period.

While Manchukuo was a Japanese puppet state, was it any more oppressed than Korea, or Taiwan which were also Japanese occupied? Or large parts of China proper over the warlord period? Or indeed post war South Korea until the Seventies?

The Soviet occupation was quite key in handing a major industrial region, and the armaments of the Japanese over to Mao's forces, at a crucial time.

It is a fascinating twitter thread, and whatever one feels about the economic policies, it was a pivotal period in the rise of modern China.

alex_

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JFC.

With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?

Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

There's some very obvious reasons for it.

But surely there's still technically a victim? Otherwise murder could be described in the right circumstances as a victimless crime?

TheScreamingEagles

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JFC.

With regard to Manager Joey Barton’s court appearance by video link this morning, the Club has been informed that the matter is proceeding to trial and is therefore sub judicial.

Accordingly, the Club is unable to make any further comment other than to quote the Crown Prosecutor this morning who said “this is a victimless crime. No one has made a claim of assault”.

Following the weekend’s publicity and today’s court appearance Joey is taking a few days personal time to be with his family. Clint Hill will therefore lead the team for tomorrow night’s friendly against Havant and Waterlooville.

https://www.bristolrovers.co.uk/news/2021/july/joey-barton-statement-update/

Doesn't a prosecution of assault require there to be a 'victim', even if they don't think of themselves as one?

Well in domestic abuse cases this is a frequent issue I'm told.

There's some very obvious reasons for it.

But surely there's still technically a victim? Otherwise murder could be described in the right circumstances as a victimless crime?

There is, I think Bristol Rovers have misunderstood the nuance.

Theuniondivvie

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...

Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM

How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..

alex_

Looks like there's been no massacre at the start of the Women's triathlon.

Theuniondivvie

Whaddafuk?

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
Now @britneyspears
can hire own lawyers: please Britney team write/tweet to all in Congress, all @POTUS
staff, all @GavinNewsom
staff, judges’ staff challenging whether *they personally* support the *shocking* conservatorship laws. They won't & the tide will #FreeBritney RETWEET!

carnforth

Leon said:

But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

https://eataly.co.uk

Leon

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...

Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM

How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..

I went and bought a fucking chunk of real high quality parmesan. AND A GRATER. As instructed

But - as I feared, and as I warned you all on here, countless times - the cheese was so nice I ate it all in a day with some spare cherry tomatoes

So now I have NO CHEESE, a USELESS GRATER, and I am SLIGHTLY FATTER

Thanks for nuttin, PB

CorrectHorseBattery

Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

Foxy

carnforth said:

Leon said:

But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

https://eataly.co.uk

Yes, just a little bit of that European culture...

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

Felicity Cloake's Perfect series is always a good start:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2016/aug/04/how-to-make-the-perfect-caprese-salad

Yes, I read that, and I totally agree with most of it. If not all of it. Especially important is the Jamie Oliver touch - you don't "slice" the mozzarella, you rip it into rural chunks so it absorbs much more of the oil and tomato juices, because of more surface - like a contorted pasta shape soaking up pesto

Who are these UTTER BARBARIANS who carefully slice the mozzarella so it "looks nice"

PUT THEM IN PRISON

alex_

Bound to be some crashes in the cycling in this weather.

Quincel

Theuniondivvie said:

Whaddafuk?

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
Now @britneyspears
can hire own lawyers: please Britney team write/tweet to all in Congress, all @POTUS
staff, all @GavinNewsom
staff, judges’ staff challenging whether *they personally* support the *shocking* conservatorship laws. They won't & the tide will #FreeBritney RETWEET!

He's not wrong.

RobD

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

I'd keep it but tax it more. The poorest will be hit hardest if you simply scrap it.

theProle

Charles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Was texting to a politico today, like me he reckons the narrowing will reverse soon enough if the case numbers maintain their current trajectory.

However he reckons the Tories will take a big hit in the polls soon enough if they don't maintain the UC uplift and put up taxes on workers so the retired can maintain their triple lock.

If the Tories can't find a way to politically justify not raising pensions by 7-8% then the country really is screwed. Frankly it really would speak volumes for the selfishness of the elderly if that were to transpire. Triple lock, schmickle lock. There's no way that people voted for the triple lock expected that sort of bonus. The idea of the triple lock (agree with it on affordability grounds or not) was to prevent pensions falling behind general improvements in income and/or inflationary pressures. Permanent windfall rises of 7-8% are nothing to do with that.

You know the basic state pension is about 25% of median income?

It’s not hugely generous

I would restructure so it moves up by average earnings each year plus a specific adjustment so they close the gap at 1pp pa

Isn't this because most pensioners don't actually have massive outgoings? I earn around the median income, if you deduct from that the income tax/ni, my commuting and mortgage costs I'm probably left with little more than the average pensioner gets, and I think I could live fairly comfortably on that.

Granted there is a bit of an issue where persioners haven't managed to become home owners in their working lives, but that's probably better solved by targeted housing benefit than giving homeowners an extra windfall.

I think replacing the triple lock will an uprating based on the mean of the three measures, taken over a rolling 5 year average would be a sensible compromise - it's obviously fair, but should result in windfall uplifts like the one currently on the cards.

Theuniondivvie

Leon said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

I am obsessed with making the best, the absolute best, nay, the PERFECT salad caprese

First fly to Naples to get your fresh tomatoes...

Marks and Sparks are now doing AMAZING toms. Tiger tomatoes. Add them in with a big old beef heritage tom from Whole Foods and I'm good to go


https://www.thompson-morgan.com/p/tomato-tiger-red-f1/tm76710TM

How's M&S flaked Parmesan? Not that I'm going to try it..

I went and bought a fucking chunk of real high quality parmesan. AND A GRATER. As instructed

But - as I feared, and as I warned you all on here, countless times - the cheese was so nice I ate it all in a day with some spare cherry tomatoes

So now I have NO CHEESE, a USELESS GRATER, and I am SLIGHTLY FATTER

Thanks for nuttin, PB

Christ, in extreme munchiness I've considered eating the whole Parmesan but only managed a quarter or so.
Kudos!

kle4

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

The poorest will be hit hardest

Perhaps that will sell the idea to some of us.

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Scrap the triple lock, old people can pay more taxes, they get everything else handed to them

I mostly agree, but the problem is some pensioners are not well-off, so you'd have to think of something for them.

Leon

carnforth said:

Leon said:

But what is the best mozarella? And does one add balsamic vinegar?

Every fibre of my European soul rebels at the idea, but Americans swear by it

42000 sq ft of Italian deli has just opened in your part of the world:

https://eataly.co.uk

Oooh. Bishopsgate

But a 10 minute Uber away

Grazie!