Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.

At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.

At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

Benpointer said:

AlwaysSinging said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hey Siri, please show me some direct discrimination under the Equality Act of 2010.

Er, Cllr Katie Lomas says she has been told she cannot take part in a council debate about disabled people accessing York city centre at the meeting - because she is disabled

She has requested to take part, saying she feels this is discriminatory, but will not be allowed

She says she has been told she has a personal interest in the debate over whether blue badge holders can access York city centre, as she has a blue badge

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415729654514790405

Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?

Update

Council U-turn - Councillors Katie Lomas and Ashley Mason - who were told they could not speak in a debate about disabled people accessing the city centre because they are disabled and have a personal interest - WILL now take part

The decision was reversed in meeting break

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415755863000850439

I'll bet it was. Foolish chair or foolish adviser I wonder.

I have sometimes wondered, though, whether I should speak up about accessibility in an institution of which I am a Trustee. On one hand I wouldn't want even the slightest suggestion that I was advocating for my own interest -- I would rather keep silent in order to avoid a conflict, no matter how minor -- but on the other hand, if I don't speak up then nobody would notice the problems.

In recent years I've tended to say more on this topic, while slightly squirming about the possible conflict. What tipped me over the edge was a plan for an entire new building which could not be accessed, in any way, without going up steps. At the time my objection was batted aside but thankfully the entire plan was later scrapped.

--AS

You should always speak out about concerns like that. If not you, who?

However, I struggle to understand how any new building in the UK would get planning approval without wheelchair access.

Anabobazina said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.

At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.

At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

The absurdity of being able to hold a full conversation at the bar with a barman/barmaid but not have them pull you a pint was among the most bonkers of the covid restrictions. Arguably second only in the hospitality world to the fabled one-way system: the virus being evil and capricious in many respects yet a stickler for traffic regulations.

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

Taz said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Taz said:

Anabobazina said:

rottenborough said:

Helena Wilkinson
@BBCHelena
·
41s
Friday’s Daily Telegraph: Neighbours ‘pinged’ through walls by app #tomorrowspaperstoday

Beyond farcical. If it’s not true, it might as well be.

Enough.

It’s true. My niece had to self isolate as the man in the office above hers had Covid and she was within 2M of him even though he was on a different floor, working for a different company and she never met him.

How does your niece know it was due to him and not due to anyone else that she has been in contact with? 🤔

Dunno why you need the snarky emoticon. It’s what she told me. She’d been called by test and trace. Came from them. She works in a small office.

Do Test and Trace tell you who the contact is?

I don't think they are permitted to.

Pings via the App are anonymous.

That's what I thought. Hence @Taz's niece has no idea whether it was the man in the office above hers.

Well precisely, hence the 'snarky emoticon'.

The entire point of the app is its anonymous, if it pings you don't and can't be told who or why it got pinged.

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

Foxy said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Benpointer said:

AlwaysSinging said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hey Siri, please show me some direct discrimination under the Equality Act of 2010.

Er, Cllr Katie Lomas says she has been told she cannot take part in a council debate about disabled people accessing York city centre at the meeting - because she is disabled

She has requested to take part, saying she feels this is discriminatory, but will not be allowed

She says she has been told she has a personal interest in the debate over whether blue badge holders can access York city centre, as she has a blue badge

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415729654514790405

Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?

Update

Council U-turn - Councillors Katie Lomas and Ashley Mason - who were told they could not speak in a debate about disabled people accessing the city centre because they are disabled and have a personal interest - WILL now take part

The decision was reversed in meeting break

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415755863000850439

I'll bet it was. Foolish chair or foolish adviser I wonder.

I have sometimes wondered, though, whether I should speak up about accessibility in an institution of which I am a Trustee. On one hand I wouldn't want even the slightest suggestion that I was advocating for my own interest -- I would rather keep silent in order to avoid a conflict, no matter how minor -- but on the other hand, if I don't speak up then nobody would notice the problems.

In recent years I've tended to say more on this topic, while slightly squirming about the possible conflict. What tipped me over the edge was a plan for an entire new building which could not be accessed, in any way, without going up steps. At the time my objection was batted aside but thankfully the entire plan was later scrapped.

--AS

You should always speak out about concerns like that. If not you, who?

However, I struggle to understand how any new building in the UK would get planning approval without wheelchair access.

I think the reason is that it was an accommodation block, and an older existing block nearby did have a few ground floor step-free rooms. The legal requirement is for the facility to be accessible rather than a particular building, so it could be argued that the facility of accommodation was accessible (even though a disabled student would not, for example, be able to visit their friends in the other building). I think it was only after we had permission that we went to potential donors to ask for them to cough up for the building, and thankfully they said no...

That was a few years ago and attitudes in this institution have improved a lot, partly because a few retirements brought in new thinking and partly because I toughened up and embarrassed some of the officers in front of everyone when they brought another plan for an inaccessible facility. (The latter was quite funny, because in order to save face they tried to claim that the plans they had laid before the trustees were step free, despite the clear drawing of steps helpfully labelled "steps".) I'm glad to say that it's a lot more accessible than it used to be, and continuing to improve.

--AS

Surely at the planning stage (as opposed to refitting historic buildings) the cost of ramp access would be tiny?

Floater said:

dixiedean said:

Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.

I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

Foxy said:

AlwaysSinging said:

Benpointer said:

AlwaysSinging said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hey Siri, please show me some direct discrimination under the Equality Act of 2010.

Er, Cllr Katie Lomas says she has been told she cannot take part in a council debate about disabled people accessing York city centre at the meeting - because she is disabled

She has requested to take part, saying she feels this is discriminatory, but will not be allowed

She says she has been told she has a personal interest in the debate over whether blue badge holders can access York city centre, as she has a blue badge

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415729654514790405

Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?

Update

Council U-turn - Councillors Katie Lomas and Ashley Mason - who were told they could not speak in a debate about disabled people accessing the city centre because they are disabled and have a personal interest - WILL now take part

The decision was reversed in meeting break

https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415755863000850439

I'll bet it was. Foolish chair or foolish adviser I wonder.

I have sometimes wondered, though, whether I should speak up about accessibility in an institution of which I am a Trustee. On one hand I wouldn't want even the slightest suggestion that I was advocating for my own interest -- I would rather keep silent in order to avoid a conflict, no matter how minor -- but on the other hand, if I don't speak up then nobody would notice the problems.

In recent years I've tended to say more on this topic, while slightly squirming about the possible conflict. What tipped me over the edge was a plan for an entire new building which could not be accessed, in any way, without going up steps. At the time my objection was batted aside but thankfully the entire plan was later scrapped.

--AS

You should always speak out about concerns like that. If not you, who?

However, I struggle to understand how any new building in the UK would get planning approval without wheelchair access.

I think the reason is that it was an accommodation block, and an older existing block nearby did have a few ground floor step-free rooms. The legal requirement is for the facility to be accessible rather than a particular building, so it could be argued that the facility of accommodation was accessible (even though a disabled student would not, for example, be able to visit their friends in the other building). I think it was only after we had permission that we went to potential donors to ask for them to cough up for the building, and thankfully they said no...

That was a few years ago and attitudes in this institution have improved a lot, partly because a few retirements brought in new thinking and partly because I toughened up and embarrassed some of the officers in front of everyone when they brought another plan for an inaccessible facility. (The latter was quite funny, because in order to save face they tried to claim that the plans they had laid before the trustees were step free, despite the clear drawing of steps helpfully labelled "steps".) I'm glad to say that it's a lot more accessible than it used to be, and continuing to improve.

--AS

Surely at the planning stage (as opposed to refitting historic buildings) the cost of ramp access would be tiny?

Nigelb said:

Floater said:

dixiedean said:

Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.

I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

Yes, my wife is now isolating as a couple of kids in her class tested positive.
Year 6, so they all miss the chance to say goodbye at the end of their time in school. Rather sad.

Sleeping in the spare room tonight…

bigjohnowls said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

132

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

bigjohnowls said:

bigjohnowls said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

132

That's the number of Acute Trusts with a level 1 A&E

Would think that's a very similar number with a Critical Care beds

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

StuartDickson said:

Leon said:

Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

*I have changed details

Sean, you’re such a twerp.

I'm not this creepy Sean character Obvs. But you have to admit my anecdote is better value than

"Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today "

Not least because mine is true. A total double life for several decades. FFS

Why tell you now though?

Good question. I think it is because he nearly died last year, and because he could still die quite soon. He is modestly proud of this remarkable subterfuge, and the fact that - whereas he seemed to have a fairly dull life - his life has in fact been "the opposite", if you see celebrity and minor crime that way

It was Le-Carre-esque. The final revealing of a double agent

Dunno. You sure he's not trying to flush you out? That would be more LeCarrie.

NickPalmer said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.

gealbhan said:

Tonight’s caption competition

https://news.sky.com/story/hertfordshire-commuters-stunned-as-stolen-4x4-driven-on-to-train-tracks-amid-police-manhunt-12356685

Anabobazina said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

Not all covid hospitalisations are in critical care presumably? In fact, presumably most are not?

There are 1,250 hospitals of all kinds in the UK, which is a decent rule of thumb I’d say, in the absence of more granular data.

dixiedean said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.

Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.

Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.

bigjohnowls said:

bigjohnowls said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

132

That's the number of Acute Trusts with a level 1 A&E

Would think that's a very similar number with a Critical Care beds

LostPassword said:

Anabobazina said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

Not all covid hospitalisations are in critical care presumably? In fact, presumably most are not?

There are 1,250 hospitals of all kinds in the UK, which is a decent rule of thumb I’d say, in the absence of more granular data.

But you'd expect a decent proportion of patients admitted to hospital with Covid to end up in critical care, and you won't know which ones. I really think that averaging over the large number of small cottage hospitals that don't even have a minor injuries unit, just so you can get an artificially low average number is a nonsense.

The figure for the number of hospitals that you have is nearly two per Westminster constituency. Two! It's clearly absurd and gives a misleading impression to use that figure.

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

Floater said:

dixiedean said:

Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.

I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

Yes, my wife is now isolating as a couple of kids in her class tested positive.
Year 6, so they all miss the chance to say goodbye at the end of their time in school. Rather sad.

Sleeping in the spare room tonight…

It’s tragic and if it’s anything like the schoolchildren around here, there is absolutely nothing wrong with them. Year 6 children are missing milestones in their life on account of a bug that, in most cases, doesn’t affect them.

Andy_JS said:

rottenborough said:

I'm shocked etc...



Mirror Celeb
@MirrorCeleb
#LoveIsland's Zara McDermott admits she did show for fame and money not romance https://mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/love-islands-zara-mcdermott-admits-24545791?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Did anyone ever think otherwise?

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

LostPassword said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.

Presumably that limits hospital capacity?

It would seem so.

Presumably that’s a bad call?

In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.

You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.

We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.

The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.

Yes, private hospitals were requisitioned in England in the first wave (and the owners renumeration handsomely for their trouble). There are 2 in Leicester with private beds, so add those too our denominator too.

We currently have 3241 admissions on the government.uk dashboard, so for @Anabobazina figure to be true there would need to be around 1 hospital per 60 000 people in England. That seems a very broad definition so must include a lot of cottage hospitals etc.

Dunno. It’s a bit of a daft argument as I’m using the only published number. I’m not artificially upgrading or downgrading it, simply using the only number available.

As I say, if someone has a different figure, I’m happy to use that.

FrancisUrquhart said:

GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

Not going to make 6 months are they.

Andy_JS said:

dixiedean said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.

Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.

Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.

I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.

Nigelb said:

.

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

Floater said:

dixiedean said:

Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.

I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

Yes, my wife is now isolating as a couple of kids in her class tested positive.
Year 6, so they all miss the chance to say goodbye at the end of their time in school. Rather sad.

Sleeping in the spare room tonight…

It’s tragic and if it’s anything like the schoolchildren around here, there is absolutely nothing wrong with them. Year 6 children are missing milestones in their life on account of a bug that, in most cases, doesn’t affect them.

Most of them.
One of the kids in another class is hospitalised.

Andy_JS said:

dixiedean said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.

Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.

Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.

I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

dixiedean said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

StuartDickson said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?

It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.

Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

*and PB is spin central

He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

It's bollocks.

Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.

I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.

Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.

Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.

I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.

It's a different way of life. Doesn't happen in the two nearest towns. (Pop. 10k and 3k).

gealbhan said:

gealbhan said:

Other front page news, as it’s a special night tonight, the Daily Star, surely front page of the year? A masterpiece of clickbait pics and captions, how can you resist?

When I heard about the Hancock gropeavision raids I wondered who was raided. Could it be employees at The Sun? Surely the Sun are doomed claiming public interest in this one, if it was a sting clearly against the public interest rules? Also of course, spy camera’s in ministerial offices, surely a huge security angle, if leaving secret on bus stops is security breach, then what on earth is spy camera in the office? Surely the government themselves should make more noise on the state security angle of what happened here?

I was wondering why I haven’t seen more on PB about the moon wobble. If the topic came up I must have missed it before it set.

Meanwhile, on the “i” - vaccine creator, help rest rest of world before jabbing British teenagers.
Just thought I’d mention that.

FrancisUrquhart said:

GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

Not going to make 6 months are they.

LostPassword said:

NHS Lothian states that it has 21 hospitals.

This includes the two big hospitals in Edinburgh, which are the two I know about, which are what most people think of when they think of a hospital - the Western General and the Royal Infirmary. Of the same sort of size is St John's in Livingston. These are the three hospitals with A&E departments.

There's also a Royal Hospital for Children and Young People, which is right next door to the Royal Infirmary, you'd be forgiven for thinking they were the same place.

You have the Astley Ainslie hospital, which does have some inpatients, but it's a specialist rehabilitation hospital for people with brain injuries, amputations and the like. Would it have had a Covid ward, even at the peak of each wave?

You have community hospitals in East Lothian and Midlothian that offer minor procedures and endoscopies, but not much else. A cottage hospital in North Berwick.

The Royal Edinburgh hospital provides mental health services.

The Royal Victoria Hospital apparently has six wards, and seems to be a facility for providing In-Patient Continuing Care - these seem to be wards for patients that the main hospitals are struggling to discharge.

St Michael's hospital is in Linlithgow., so looks like another small cottage hospital. As also for Belhaven hospital in Dunbar, the Herdmanflat hospital in Haddington and the Tippethill hospital in West Lothian.

The Liberton hospital in Edinburgh is a specialist in medicine for elderly patients, including more stroke rehabilitation, but it does describes its wards as being acute wards.

That's 15 hospitals. The other six don't even have "hospital" in their name on this list. Not sure if the Lauriston building is included in the total of 21 hospitals, which houses a bunch of outpatient services for things such as ear, nose and throat, but no inpatient wards. Maybe the Princess Alexandra Eye Pavilion would be one of the 21 - but it is a specialist eye hospital. I suspect that there's a similar story for the rest of the 21 hospitals in NHS Lothian.

So, of 21 "hospitals" we have 3 large hospitals with A&E departments, 7 very small hospitals with limited facilities, at least 3, maybe 5, possibly even 9 specialist "hospitals", some of which don't have any inpatient beds, but that all offer very limited services relating to a particular specialism, and a couple of hospitals for dealing with elderly/step-down inpatients.

It's clearly absurd to include a hospital with no inpatient facilities as part of your denominator. Is it reasonable to include the cottage hospitals? Seems a bit of a stretch. I'd say, maybe about 5 for NHS Lothian - the three A&E hospitals and the two facilities providing specialist elderly or step-down care. That's a factor of 4 fewer hospitals, suggesting a more appropriate denominator for the country would be about 300.

gealbhan said:

Now this is interesting, the big headline in The Times. Johnson backs new tax to transform social care. Plan likely to include cap on amount people have to pay for their own care.

More from the article

“Dilmott suggested a cap of 50k, it is understood the treasury (Sunak) wants higher to minimise costs to the taxpayer”.

Correct me where wrong, Tess plan had line drawn on going under 100K? And if something is covering a bottom, can it be called a cap?

But this isn’t pants. Where posters today attacked May’s poor politics in just bouncing it out, this is a government putting out feelers on something “not finalised” just out there now for discussion. So the right way to do it?

And it is big news. Moon wobbles and police raids, this is the big story Is it not? What is being put out there can be compared straight away with what May suggested. Also, moderate Tory apparatchik like HY has made clear May’s plan is impossible sell on doorstep, so Johnson’s proposals have to pass the HY test? (We are so fortunate to have him. And Big G).

But really, let’s be honest with each other, the real test here is on Libdems and Labour, who helped the Tory press salt the earth the last time we had a government with a policy to create proper funding mechanism for Social Care.

gealbhan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

gealbhan said:

Now this is interesting, the big headline in The Times. Johnson backs new tax to transform social care. Plan likely to include cap on amount people have to pay for their own care.

More from the article

“Dilmott suggested a cap of 50k, it is understood the treasury (Sunak) wants higher to minimise costs to the taxpayer”.

Correct me where wrong, Tess plan had line drawn on going under 100K? And if something is covering a bottom, can it be called a cap?

But this isn’t pants. Where posters today attacked May’s poor politics in just bouncing it out, this is a government putting out feelers on something “not finalised” just out there now for discussion. So the right way to do it?

And it is big news. Moon wobbles and police raids, this is the big story Is it not? What is being put out there can be compared straight away with what May suggested. Also, moderate Tory apparatchik like HY has made clear May’s plan is impossible sell on doorstep, so Johnson’s proposals have to pass the HY test? (We are so fortunate to have him. And Big G).

But really, let’s be honest with each other, the real test here is on Libdems and Labour, who helped the Tory press salt the earth the last time we had a government with a policy to create proper funding mechanism for Social Care.

Seems from the past couple of days the government is trying to move on from just talking about COVID.

Which is commendable. Boris social care tax + cap policy is supposed to be his big 2 years in power present to us.

Then again his speech on levelling up today seems to be widely regarded as rant against what he, and pretty much all of us don’t like to see happening, and not much flesh on plan for putting things right.

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

JohnO said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I've always been a big supporter of devolution within England so was interested in the Prime Minister's comments today.

I'm not wholly sure what a "County Deal" is and it doesn't seem the Prime Minister is either. Surrey and Hampshire are not London and expecting Tim Oliver to take over "transport" beyond local buses and cycling seems curious. Are we suggesting for example the County Councils take over South Western Railway? To be fair, they could only do a better job.

There's no mention of proper devolution such as ending capping and allowing Councils to set whatever Council Tax they consider justified for service provision. There's no mention (no surprise) of handing planning control back to elected local councillors (might be good if you wanted to stop the drift of disillusioned Conservatives to the LDs) and, more important, no mention of moving powers to local authorities and providing adequate resources (public health being one example).

The problem with County Councils is so much of their funding is taken up by the provision of care to adults and children - until and unless we see a resolution to the provision and funding of adult social care in particular (those the cost of provision of care to vulnerable children is another big drain on resources), the financial question is going to bedevil progress in other areas.

It also seems the Government has backed away from any talk of ending two-tier local Government and this will be another issue - again, back to Surrey where the Conservative-run County Council faces eleven Districts and Boroughs, many of whom are now run by anti-Conservative groupings. Seeking a common approach to devolution is almost impossible in such a dislocated political environment.

Yes, Runnymede, Surrey Heath, Reigate & Banstead and Woking (minority) are Conservative led out of the 11 Ds&Bs in Surrey. I completely agree that the possibility of even a basic accommodation with the County is near zero.

The Tories now only need to lose 5 seats to lose control of Surrey CC too, Surrey is now full of Tory-LD marginals like Esher and Walton and Guildford and Surrey SW, it is no longer the ultra safe Tory county of the Major years that stayed true blue as other areas fell to Blair and Ashdown.

By contrast here in Essex, which used to be classic marginal territory with lots of seats won by New Labour, every seat is Tory held and most with big majorities and at county council level the Tories have a large majority of 31 now

Not quite, Cons 47 others 34 so seven seats! But point taken...though don't forget that Guildford had a LibDem MP until 2010 and Jeremy Hunt only held Surrey SW by three figures in 2005. E&W had an over 20,000 majority just 4 years ago in 2017 and the LibDems did not do well in the May elections albeit they captured Cobham in a by-election last week.

Wiki now has Surrey Cons 45 Others 36
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrey_County_Council

Guildford it is true had a LD MP for 1 term but that is the only seat the Tories have lost in the county before. At the next election it is conceivable Surrey SW, Esher and Walton, Woking as well as Guildford could all go yellow as they are all in the top 50 LD target seats.

By contrast here in Essex seats like Harlow and Clacton and Harwich and Thurrock which Blair won are not even in the top 100 Labour target seats or Colchester which was LD is not in the top 50 LD targets either.

In 2019 the Tories got 64% in Essex but only 53% in Surrey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England

One of the curiosities is that there's such a strong East-West gradient on the political map. The places where UKIP/BXP/New Model Tories have done really well tend to be along the East Coast. The further west you go, in general, with exceptions, the less the appeal.

(Look, say at where the really dark blue splodges are on this map;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)

Are there any good theories about what's going on?

Leon said:

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

*I have changed details

Sounds like a good concept for a book....

It is too far fetched for a book

I'm still somewhat boggled by it all. I guess my friendship network is something of a self-selecting peer group of hedonistic, bohemian, drug-prone males in their 40s and 50s, who will always have colourful stories, but still.

This is exceptional. A total double life for decades. Whoah

Is it?

Surely a drug dealer needs a cover story, so he doesn't get nicked too easily?

What's the point in being a drug dealer if your cover story requires you live as if on disability benefits? No flash holidays, expensive cars, Michelin restaurant dinners...

Yes, that's it. Bizarrely he lived a fairly humble life, and still does (by the standards of notably affluent West London)

I would, in fact, doubt his story, but he immediately furnished it with multiple details (of clients and lifestyles) which proved to be completely valid after a minute of Googling

I don't disbelieve him. He's telling the truth. It does explain holes in his life story that we all queried, vaguely, but never investigated. Because, good friend