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Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 15 in General
imageWhy 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

I have just bet at 3.6 on Betfair that 2023 will be the year of the next general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act is being replaced by a new measure that puts the control of the next election date into the hands of the prime minister

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Listening to Dimbleby Jnr talk about his food report. One thing that stuck out was basically him saying high quality meat such a steak and roast chicken is fine, but need to cut right down on processed cheap meat based products from our diets.

    This highlights the crux of the problem.

    I, as much of PB I would think, can and probably already do this. £6-7 for a decent steak is fine for my tea, but then we know that the richer you are now the less likely you are to be massive overweight, eat better etc.

    Those on low income are never paying £30-40 for one family meal of decent steak or a good quality whole chicken, hence why its chicken nug nugs etc.

    I don't know how you square that circle.

    I don't see why chicken is an issue.

    I can get a whole chicken from Tesco for £2.50, less than the cost of a single Happy Meal, and get a few days worth of meals from that chicken for the whole family.

    Again it comes more down to the willingness, desire, inclination and ability to cook than it does the affordability.
    You can get a ‘few days of family meals’ from one £2.50 chicken?! Impressive. Also unbelievable
    Yes I can. I don't know why you think I'd lie about that.

    But even if you just get one family meal from a whole chicken, its just as cheap as buying crap food and far cheaper than buying a McDonalds or other takeaways.
    I don’t know why you’d lie about this but ‘a few days of family meals’ from one £2.50 chicken is ridiculous

    Let’s say a family is four hungry mouths. They will devour an entire roast chicken in one sitting, easily. And they might still be hungry

    You’re then left with a few bones which you could boil down for stock (with vegetables) and make a HYUFDy hot broth which could furnish lunch I guess (with bread). That’s it
    As long as your kids are small, you can have roast chicken on day one, chicken risotto on day two, and soup on day three (or for lunch).

    Yeah risotto is one of the easier things to cook.
    Also easy to make a rubbery mess of it as well, you have to get it just at the correct consistency or it is horrible.
    Might I ask, what rice do you use?
    Carnyx, always Arborio and slowly add broth till absorbed and it turns creamy. Add some grated parmesan at the end.
    Agree. My risotto includes white wine as part of the stock, parmesan, chicken, king prawns, bacon. So not that cheap, really. But then I'm one of the metropolitan elite (though we do use the disembowelled chicken to make stock for soup).
    Never thought of white wine. Must try that.
    FPT


    A wild mushroom risotto is one of my favourites to cook. Soak dried wild mushrooms. After frying the onions until soft, add chopped chestnut mushrooms and the drained/squeezed/chopped wild mushrooms (reserver the liquor), season to taste. Once the mushrooms are cooked add the risotto rice, stir and add a good glassful of white wine and reduce, then slowly add the reserved mushroom liquor. Finish with a nob of butter, grated parmesan and chopped parsley.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46
    Seems a reasonable conjecture...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,150
    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,272
    50,000 cases and 63 deaths is not optimal.


    I know there are logical reasons for calm serenity, in the face of these stats, but Ouch
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    Today cases...


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212
    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,970

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,036
    "Looking back there’s a tendency for parliaments that run their full course to end up with a change of government as we saw at GE1997 and GE2010."

    Yes but I think the causation goes the other way - it's because Major and Brown were so disastrously unpopular that they held on to the last minute, hoping something would turn up.

    The political genius that was Tony Blair ensured that it didn't, the political mediocrity that was David Cameron meant that it almost did.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    FTPA was and remains nonsense.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,272
    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,290
    I don't always agree with Mike but he has called this absolutely right.

    PMs don't like to go beyond 4 years unless they have to because of the risk of adverse developments in the 5th year.

    Also the boundary changes will/should be in place by then, whether they actually help CON remains to be seen but the current expectation is that they will.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    we can but hope
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,823

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,290

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,566

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.
    The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,567
    Sweeney74 said:

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    FTPA was and remains nonsense.



    The PM and government have so much power over parliament now, you may as well abolish it. At least the FTPA reined back a little bit of the PM power. I can't see how it can be classed as nonsense, it is a perfectly relevant system used in the majority of countries around the world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.
    I do wonder if it might have been wise to break up / go to home schooling for summer holidays early.

    No idea what schools are like these days, but in my day the last week was mostly messing about anyway.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,170
    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873
    Absolutely summer or autumn 2023 once the new boundaries are in is the logical date.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,784

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    I suspect this owes more to Dominic Cummings than to Boris himself. But in any case, even after Boris explained all earlier today, levelling up is little more than a wishlist rather than a detailed policy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    Good for Boris, good for the UK, terrible for Labour, and rather encouraging for the LibDems.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873
    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    I forecast a peak of 50k. Given schools break up next week, I'd be very surprised if I'm far out.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    I wonder how much this is to do with Boris seeing his own popularity as being intrinsically linked with Covid. Once it is over will he become Churchill to Starmer's Atlee?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    That The Spectator is a shadow of its old self?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,803

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.
    The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
    I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debate :)

    What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.

    As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,150

    I don't always agree with Mike but he has called this absolutely right.

    PMs don't like to go beyond 4 years unless they have to because of the risk of adverse developments in the 5th year.

    Also the boundary changes will/should be in place by then, whether they actually help CON remains to be seen but the current expectation is that they will.

    It's a fascinating thought experiment to consider what would have happened had May not gone for an early GE in 2017, but had instead stuck to the course mandated by the FTPA - which would have meant a GE in spring of 2020...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,340

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.
    Yes I suspect people will indeed make the call for themselves. Which is as it should be.

    I'm pretty sanguine about today's numbers.

    Can someone explain to why it matters whether they go faster now and slower later, rather than vice versa?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671
    Sweeney74 said:

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    FTPA was and remains nonsense.



    It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.

    The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
    Ethincally... ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,823

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
    Was that typo deliberate?!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
    Ethincally... ?
    Corrected.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
    Was that typo deliberate?!
    No. Corrected.

    I should stick to (mis)reporting 10 man England teams instead :-)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,761
    edited July 15

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    At this rate we'll end up with the Chancellor setting interest rates again. Elected politicians making decisions like that is a threat to democracy. ;)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,495
    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    Too early yet to be seeing much of an effect from the cup final.

    I wish when public figures say things like cases may reach "100,000" a day (Javid), or deaths may reach "50 or so" a day (Ferguson, comfortably surpassed only 9 days later), they would explain why they think that. Or preferably put their money where their mouths are.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.
    Given the school holidays mean that the number of tests will absolutely collapse, I'd be staggered if the numbers don't drop dramatically.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    The honest conversation is that we cannot afford diktat restrictions any more.

    Debt is soaring, the economy is still well short of full pace, and inflationary pressures are building.

    We may soon face a situation where inflation is such that rates really should be rising, but the economy is too fragile to take the rate hikes.

    That means the BoE just sit there and watches price growth denude incomes, savings pensions and quality of life.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,273
    Ex-officer gets four years in prison for beating Black undercover colleague at protest
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/07/14/police-beating-undercover-protest-stlouis/

    Not so easy to claim it was the protestors being violent when you beat up one of your own.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,671

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?
    TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.
    He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/

    Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
    Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.
    I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
    Ethincally... ?
    Corrected.
    Shame :smile:
  • PamelaWPamelaW Posts: 17
    I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

    I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 91

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.
    The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
    I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debate :)

    What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.

    As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
    Couldn’t agree more with this - in all respects. Whether Boris can deliver on this is the key question, and opinions naturally vary - but it’s firmly in his sights, however wobbly those may be. It’s nowhere in view in his opponents’ thinking as far as I can see.

    The point about the better employment and salary levels in the north east and midlands earlier in the day is a good example of what sort of data might tell us whether this plan is working.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46
    PamelaW said:

    I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

    I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.

    But why is it a bad thing that the government can call an election? Are you simply against a politician being able to "play politics"?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873
    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    Besides any Act demanding unanimity can be repealed or overridden with a one line Notwithstanding Act passed by simple majority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    Netherlands COVID update: More than 11,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since December

    - New cases: 11,064
    - Average: 9,242 (+798)
    - In hospital: 230 (+18)
    - In ICU: 72 (-2)
    - New deaths: 3
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,560

    Netherlands COVID update: More than 11,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since December

    - New cases: 11,064
    - Average: 9,242 (+798)
    - In hospital: 230 (+18)
    - In ICU: 72 (-2)
    - New deaths: 3

    But rate of 7-day increase in cases already fallen from six fold last week to two-fold.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    UK testing capacity looks like it's under strain again.

    The proportion of in-person tests being returned in 24hrs is down from 77% to 63% in a week.

    Average turnaround time for home tests is up from 45hrs to 56hrs.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1415682800821280780?s=20
  • CommentatorCommentator Posts: 19
    rcs1000 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    FTPA was and remains nonsense.

    It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.

    The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
    Yes! A very important point and one curiously missed by so much discussion. It was only designed to soothe Clegg's nerves by stopping a minority government (If Cameron dumped him) calling an election against the opposition. As long as a PM has a majority, she or he can whip an early GE (and as we saw in 2017, opposition parties didn't want to seem frit by criticising the decision anyway). However, in requiring a parliamentary majority rather than prime ministerial fiat to call an election I think it does no harm, as it functions exactly as @Sweeney74 suggests unless the Prime Minister doesn't command support in the Commons. Perhaps it could be amended to allow the government to designate official "matters of confidence", on which the house would be triggering a new general election, so it can avoid the 2019 issue of a majority of MPs being against an election but also a majority against any alternative ministry (by making them choose to collapse the government and create a general election if not backing the government on a specific point)?

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,467

    Curse of new thread. FPT:

    Hello.

    Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.

    Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.

    It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.

    It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.

    Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
    1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
    2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
    3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
    4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.

    To be honest, he gets it.
    It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.

    Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.

    If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.
    The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
    I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debate :)

    What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.

    As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
    Anyone who has experienced socialism knows that it means levelling down, not levelling up, but that is another story

    . Much as I dislike the person giving (or should I say waffling) the message, and also living in a very affluent southern area, I think the idea at least is a good one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,978
    edited July 15
    PamelaW said:

    I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

    I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.

    In theory I agree, but the situation in 2019 was excruciating when there was total stalemate in the Commons because of the FTPA.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212
    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,730
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    That The Spectator is a shadow of its old self?
    Should it be renamed the Spectre?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,978
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    rcs1000 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.

    FTPA was and remains nonsense.

    It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.

    The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
    Yes! A very important point and one curiously missed by so much discussion. It was only designed to soothe Clegg's nerves by stopping a minority government (If Cameron dumped him) calling an election against the opposition. As long as a PM has a majority, she or he can whip an early GE (and as we saw in 2017, opposition parties didn't want to seem frit by criticising the decision anyway). However, in requiring a parliamentary majority rather than prime ministerial fiat to call an election I think it does no harm, as it functions exactly as @Sweeney74 suggests unless the Prime Minister doesn't command support in the Commons. Perhaps it could be amended to allow the government to designate official "matters of confidence", on which the house would be triggering a new general election, so it can avoid the 2019 issue of a majority of MPs being against an election but also a majority against any alternative ministry (by making them choose to collapse the government and create a general election if not backing the government on a specific point)?

    What is the point of calling a vote in the house to call a GE?
    The only possible point is to force a minority government to soldier on against their will. And that's better is it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,686
    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    Whatever you say, Max! The virus will MAGICALLY disappear after the 19th! :lol:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,978

    No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?

    I am surprised the Tories haven't lost more support to Reform UK thus far.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,118

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,670
    edited July 15

    40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163

    Except they aren't.
    Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
    Thus retail remains open.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
    So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    dixiedean said:

    40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163

    Except they aren't.
    Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
    I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)

    Its sounds like the stories of the drug dealers who were caught in the first lockdown here trying to claim to the police that they were essential workers...look I have a high viz jacket and everything.
  • PamelaWPamelaW Posts: 17
    Sweeney74

    I believe PM selecting GE date gives party in power an unfair advantage. I believe potential GE date should be part of a Written Constitution and exceptional terms of overriding the fixed date also in Written Constitution.

    However I accept we do not have Written Constitution and will not for decades to come, and that Fixed Terms will only become law again after a future GE results in Coalition.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,118

    dixiedean said:

    40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163

    Except they aren't.
    Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
    I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)
    Rubbish. We all self-identify as PM on here.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743
    A bit of the chicken and egg here. Do governments run their full course because the don't think they can win an election at 4 years and so are holding on in hope that things will improve for them, or do they lose the election because they went full term? Probably just two sides of the same coin
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873
    TOPPING said:

    dixiedean said:

    40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163

    Except they aren't.
    Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
    I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)
    Rubbish. We all self-identify as PM on here.
    And Chancellor, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Education Secretary.

    But at least we're all better than Gavin Williamson.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited July 15
    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,467
    Andy_JS said:

    No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?

    I am surprised the Tories haven't lost more support to Reform UK thus far.
    Perhaps because their supporters don't mind that there isn't a lot of difference! Either that or possibly it could be the pandemic effect that has benefited Johnson in the same way it has benefited Drakeford and to a lesser extent Sturgeon.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 5,616

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    Nobody is really having the honest conversation.
    I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.
    I do wonder if it might have been wise to break up / go to home schooling for summer holidays early.

    No idea what schools are like these days, but in my day the last week was mostly messing about anyway.
    We break up tomorrow.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873

    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
    'Don't you monkeys get paid enough, what's wrong with being abused?'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,272
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.
    One would have thought so. But other countries believed they were close to herd immunity in the past - India, South Africa? - and look at them since
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
    So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?
    Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,873

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
    So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?
    Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.
    And a Notwithstanding Act gets passed by a simple majority. What then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 65,492
    edited July 15
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

    It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.
    The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politics

    This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
    It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.
    One would have thought so. But other countries believed they were close to herd immunity in the past - India, South Africa? - and look at them since
    To be fair, they were based on total nonsense small scale antibody testing. Like the claim in Brazil of cities having 60% infected.

    The ONS surveying here has been consistent and thorough.

    I am not saying we have herd immunity, but i think the data the likes.of the ONS are collating is much more accurate picture.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 13,272
    The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now

    The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 46

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
    So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?
    Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.
    an interesting position.
    I can see that playing well on here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,118
    edited July 15

    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
    I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

    Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

    Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

    Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
    Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

    What would Oscar say in such a situation...
    I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.
    I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)
    Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.
    Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party
    Can you give examples that convince you are?

    crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

    For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

    And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
    The party supports refusing indyref2.

    Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

    Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
    “ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

    Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
    We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
    What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

    And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
    'Don't you monkeys get paid enough, what's wrong with being abused?'
    Said nobody ever. Certainly not me.

    But that, I fear, is the attitude of a few idiots.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,212

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Stocky said:

    Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.

    Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.

    The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
    That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.
    Nonsense.
    The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
    If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
    That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.
    So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?
    Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.
    And a Notwithstanding Act gets passed by a simple majority. What then?
    Well, that sort of thing could happen in any situation. An unscrupulous PM could pack the Lords with cronies* and prevent any further elections happening at all. But at least that would demonstrate to everyone what an absolute shit he was.

    *Something that some Leavers were demanding during the Brexit hullaballoo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,749
    Surely it depends on the polls.

    The reason Thatcher and Blair went early in 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 is they had comfortable poll leads.

    The reason Major and Brown delayed was they were behind in the polls
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
    I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.
    No indeed but some of those who used him as an example did claim that.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,743
    Leon said:

    The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now

    The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectations
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,970
    The reason I'm saying it's cup final data feeding in is the explosion in lateral flow positives since the 12th, these are up by around 45% WoW vs PCR which will come in at about a 25% WoW increase. LFTs are rubbish but at the rate we're going through them they will be a much earlier indicator of infection than PCR testing which is based on symptoms which can take at least 3 days to show up after infection. People getting infected on Sunday during the match will get their first sign of symptoms on Wednesday but could be LFT positive by Monday. Even if we look at Tuesday's backfilled numbers the PCR positives will end up around 25% up WoW, which is not exactly a huge deal but the massive increase in LFT positives to me is a sign of the cup final showing up already. That feeds into symptomatic PCR positives from tomorrow's numbers and through the weekend.

    I'd also venture that football fans and anti-vaxxers have a slightly bigger crossover than they do with other sports which may also figure into the PCR positive rate.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 192
    Well this is interesting on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital:

    Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:

    73% were under the age of 50
    63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
    14% had had 1 jab
    15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)

    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,749
    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    gealbhan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

    Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

    Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

    Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
    Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

    What would Oscar say in such a situation...
    I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.
    I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)
    Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.
    Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party
    Can you give examples that convince you are?

    crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

    For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

    And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
    The party supports refusing indyref2.

    Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

    Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
    “ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

    Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
    We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
    What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

    And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
    Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

    The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

    Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 12,039
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?

    Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).

    While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
    Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.

    Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.

    The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.

    But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
    I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.
    Whether the country is institutionally racist seems to have become a bit of political football.....

    To me it seems some of our institutions like the police and judiciary have enough elements of racism to be considered institutionally racist, others like the NHS or HMRC do not. Does that make the UK institutionally racist or not?

    Take your pick, it simply depends where you draw the line in the sand, it is a spectrum, not a binary yes/no and means different things to different people.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,970
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now

    The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectations
    I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 941
    Afternoon all.

    I suspect based on the latest news that, on the one hand, masks are going to be around for a long time but, on the other, the Covid app has had its chips.

    The stats keep getting worse, but it still looks as if this is the product of the Plague spreading out from the original hotspots through the rest of the country and getting a bit worse all over the place, whilst hospital numbers remain broadly stable in the areas that were hit hardest first. So long as that remains the case then the country should be able to cope until this wretched disease finally starts to run out of victims - although when that will be, God alone knows.
This discussion has been closed.