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Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454
    edited July 2021

    You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.
    We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

    In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

    At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

    The absurdity of being able to hold a full conversation at the bar with a barman/barmaid but not have them pull you a pint was among the most bonkers of the covid restrictions. Arguably second only in the hospitality world to the fabled one-way system: the virus being evil and capricious in many respects yet a stickler for traffic regulations.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    That's what I thought. Hence @Taz's niece has no idea whether it was the man in the office above hers.
    Well precisely, hence the 'snarky emoticon'.

    The entire point of the app is its anonymous, if it pings you don't and can't be told who or why it got pinged.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.
    Still, that’s way, way above the average. It does appear that Leicestershire has been an ongoing hotspot since covid began, and nothing or almost nothing has done much to change it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dixiedean said:

    Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.

    I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

    I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

    2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

    We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

  • You should always speak out about concerns like that. If not you, who?

    However, I struggle to understand how any new building in the UK would get planning approval without wheelchair access.
    I think the reason is that it was an accommodation block, and an older existing block nearby did have a few ground floor step-free rooms. The legal requirement is for the facility to be accessible rather than a particular building, so it could be argued that the facility of accommodation was accessible (even though a disabled student would not, for example, be able to visit their friends in the other building). I think it was only after we had permission that we went to potential donors to ask for them to cough up for the building, and thankfully they said no...

    That was a few years ago and attitudes in this institution have improved a lot, partly because a few retirements brought in new thinking and partly because I toughened up and embarrassed some of the officers in front of everyone when they brought another plan for an inaccessible facility. (The latter was quite funny, because in order to save face they tried to claim that the plans they had laid before the trustees were step free, despite the clear drawing of steps helpfully labelled "steps".) I'm glad to say that it's a lot more accessible than it used to be, and continuing to improve.

    --AS
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Only if she's had no contacts at all with anyone else... not gone to the shops, not gone out at all, etc.
    Presumably other people in her office have also been pinged. That’s the way I interpreted his post anyway.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The absurdity of being able to hold a full conversation at the bar with a barman/barmaid but not have them pull you a pint was among the most bonkers of the covid restrictions. Arguably second only in the hospitality world to the fabled one-way system: the virus being evil and capricious in many respects yet a stickler for traffic regulations.
    My son tells me that a number of bars, clubs and other businesses are introducing their own restrictions - just as the mandated ones end ....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    I think the reason is that it was an accommodation block, and an older existing block nearby did have a few ground floor step-free rooms. The legal requirement is for the facility to be accessible rather than a particular building, so it could be argued that the facility of accommodation was accessible (even though a disabled student would not, for example, be able to visit their friends in the other building). I think it was only after we had permission that we went to potential donors to ask for them to cough up for the building, and thankfully they said no...

    That was a few years ago and attitudes in this institution have improved a lot, partly because a few retirements brought in new thinking and partly because I toughened up and embarrassed some of the officers in front of everyone when they brought another plan for an inaccessible facility. (The latter was quite funny, because in order to save face they tried to claim that the plans they had laid before the trustees were step free, despite the clear drawing of steps helpfully labelled "steps".) I'm glad to say that it's a lot more accessible than it used to be, and continuing to improve.

    --AS
    Good to hear.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TOPPING said:

    He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

    In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

    In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

    It's bollocks.
    Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    What's the point in being a drug dealer if your cover story requires you live as if on disability benefits? No flash holidays, expensive cars, Michelin restaurant dinners...
    Yes, that's it. Bizarrely he lived a fairly humble life, and still does (by the standards of notably affluent West London)

    I would, in fact, doubt his story, but he immediately furnished it with multiple details (of clients and lifestyles) which proved to be completely valid after a minute of Googling

    I don't disbelieve him. He's telling the truth. It does explain holes in his life story that we all queried, vaguely, but never investigated. Because, good friend
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Well precisely, hence the 'snarky emoticon'.

    The entire point of the app is its anonymous, if it pings you don't and can't be told who or why it got pinged.

    Yep. It seems to be 'creative writing' night on PB this evening ;-)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454

    I think the reason is that it was an accommodation block, and an older existing block nearby did have a few ground floor step-free rooms. The legal requirement is for the facility to be accessible rather than a particular building, so it could be argued that the facility of accommodation was accessible (even though a disabled student would not, for example, be able to visit their friends in the other building). I think it was only after we had permission that we went to potential donors to ask for them to cough up for the building, and thankfully they said no...

    That was a few years ago and attitudes in this institution have improved a lot, partly because a few retirements brought in new thinking and partly because I toughened up and embarrassed some of the officers in front of everyone when they brought another plan for an inaccessible facility. (The latter was quite funny, because in order to save face they tried to claim that the plans they had laid before the trustees were step free, despite the clear drawing of steps helpfully labelled "steps".) I'm glad to say that it's a lot more accessible than it used to be, and continuing to improve.

    --AS
    Surely at the planning stage (as opposed to refitting historic buildings) the cost of ramp access would be tiny?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

    *and PB is spin central
    Who can forget "tick tock"

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146


    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    25m
    Lib Dems are starting to pick candidates for key 'blue wall' target seats.

    Aim is to avoid the mistakes of the party's past - less hype, more groundwork.

    Interview with
    @EdwardJDavey
    in tomorrow's
    @theipaper
    :

    No hype, no Lib Dems.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Foxy said:

    Surely at the planning stage (as opposed to refitting historic buildings) the cost of ramp access would be tiny?
    Absolutely.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Floater said:

    My son tells me that a number of bars, clubs and other businesses are introducing their own restrictions - just as the mandated ones end ....
    Not round here. They can’t get rid of the crap quick enough. Indeed many have already ripped out the paraphernalia and are serving at the bar.

    Maybe some chain pubs will keep the restrictions, but I suspect most won’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Floater said:

    I have participated in a few conference calls with work last couple of days - loads of people either down with covid or know people that are - the most I can recall at any stage so far.

    I also got the impression people were getting more cautious again.

    2 board members of my (division of) firm have cancelled plans to spend time in office next week

    We have put off a BBQ we were going to at the weekend - A son of one of the families was told to isolate today so we will leave it a week to see how things play out.

    Yes, my wife is now isolating as a couple of kids in her class tested positive.
    Year 6, so they all miss the chance to say goodbye at the end of their time in school. Rather sad.

    Sleeping in the spare room tonight…
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792


    Yep. It seems to be 'creative writing' night on PB this evening ;-)
    You are effectively accusing his niece of lying, despite a national newspaper carrying a front page splash tomorrow saying that exactly that is happening.

    I mean, it might all be bollocks, but I’m not sure it is TBH.
  • Foxy said:

    Surely at the planning stage (as opposed to refitting historic buildings) the cost of ramp access would be tiny?
    In the accommodation block I believe the architect claimed that the gradient was too steep and couldn't be flattened to a slope within building regs (whereas steps can be steep). In the other case a ramp is basically what happened, though as this was in a listed building there was some negotiating to do with the council.

    The conservation officer can be a right pain sometimes. About 10 years ago they flat out refused permission for a ramp to the main entrance of the main building, on the grounds that the building next door had already been given permission to have a ramp and a) too many ramps is unsightly, so b) couldn't we share their ramp? (The buildings are not connected internally.)

    --AS
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Foxy said:

    We have 3 hospitals in the Trust, so more like 19 each on average. It has doubled in the last month. Some of the ICU cases are inward transfers for specialist reasons. Leicester is not the worst in @Malmesbury tables.

    In addition we have 7 cottage hospitals, with none. Do you count these in your average figures? Most have 2-4 rehab wards.
    The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

    I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, my wife is now isolating as a couple of kids in her class tested positive.
    Year 6, so they all miss the chance to say goodbye at the end of their time in school. Rather sad.

    Sleeping in the spare room tonight…
    It’s tragic and if it’s anything like the schoolchildren around here, there is absolutely nothing wrong with them. Year 6 children are missing milestones in their life on account of a bug that, in most cases, doesn’t affect them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

    I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.
    132
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    It would actually be news that somebody was on the show for romance.....
    What if they merged the show with the undateables?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    132
    That's the number of Acute Trusts with a level 1 A&E

    Would think that's a very similar number with a Critical Care beds
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

    I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.
    Not all covid hospitalisations are in critical care presumably? In fact, presumably most are not?

    There are 1,250 hospitals of all kinds in the UK, which is a decent rule of thumb I’d say, in the absence of more granular data.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644

    Yes, it does seem to be open to wild interpretation, at best.
    I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

    I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    You are effectively accusing his niece of lying, despite a national newspaper carrying a front page splash tomorrow saying that exactly that is happening.

    I mean, it might all be bollocks, but I’m not sure it is TBH.
    … and, as the prime minister could tell you, journalists never lie.


  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    That's the number of Acute Trusts with a level 1 A&E

    Would think that's a very similar number with a Critical Care beds
    Trusts or hospitals?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    Mexico reports 12,821 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February 7, and 233 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1415799358646374403?s=20
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986

    Dunno. You sure he's not trying to flush you out? That would be more LeCarrie.
    More LeCarrie would be fitting up Dom..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    132
    I think that's the number of NHS Trusts in England. Most Trusts will cover multiple hospitals.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

    I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.
    Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

    People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    edited July 2021

    I should have been clearer. People are looking out for traffic and then walking out into the road to avoid each other - it's that, not the mask-wearing, that are getting people murmuring thanks, raising a hand in acknowledgement, etc.

    I'm not sure I have a narrative in particular on this, and it's anecdata anyway. Personally I feel reasonably safe after two injections, and visited London yesterday to have dinner with a friend in a pub (waiters masked, guests not). I just thought it was interesting that people aren't relaxing yet - perhaps a good thing or not, but round here certainly a thing.
    My parts of Dorset have been pretty much back to normal for weeks. Both rural and town. The rural parts less concerned throughout, of course, because it hasn't exacted whipped through farming communities in the way it may have hit inner cities.

    It is a pleasure to see. I think most will stop bothering with masks in cafes, pubs and shops come next week. And I have my second jab on Saturday too! All good chez Mortimer atm.

    But wanted to say thanks to @Stocky for some insightful posts earlier. Many people have displayed their worst tendencies in trying to display their best. The rules for others. The comfort in a scrag of cloth (the permanence of which must be defended at all costs), the complaining about the neighbours, the shaming of people who are often less well off than themselves for 'not sticking to the rules' whilst buggering off to Europe during a pandemic, has all convinced me that true liberals are a dying breed.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Floater said:

    Who can forget "tick tock"

    Or those antisemitic attacks in Berlin.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454

    The total number of hospitals figure that people have been using on here to derive an average also includes private hospitals in the UK, so it's a bit of a nonsense figure for these purposes. I know Ireland requisitioned its private hospital capacity during the spring 2020 wave, but I don't remember if that happened in the UK.

    I've been trying to find a number for NHS hospitals with a critical care unit, as that would be a more useful count in terms of number of hospitals for deriving such an average, but I haven't been able to find it.
    Yes, private hospitals were requisitioned in England in the first wave (and the owners renumeration handsomely for their trouble). There are 2 in Leicester with private beds, so add those too our denominator too.

    We currently have 3241 admissions on the government.uk dashboard, so for @Anabobazina figure to be true there would need to be around 1 hospital per 60 000 people in England. That seems a very broad definition so must include a lot of cottage hospitals etc.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    Not all covid hospitalisations are in critical care presumably? In fact, presumably most are not?

    There are 1,250 hospitals of all kinds in the UK, which is a decent rule of thumb I’d say, in the absence of more granular data.
    But you'd expect a decent proportion of patients admitted to hospital with Covid to end up in critical care, and you won't know which ones. I really think that averaging over the large number of small cottage hospitals that don't even have a minor injuries unit, just so you can get an artificially low average number is a nonsense.

    The figure for the number of hospitals that you have is nearly two per Westminster constituency. Two! It's clearly absurd and gives a misleading impression to use that figure.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Hope you enjoyed your dinner, and I hope that people relax sooner rather than later.

    People shouldn’t be walking out into the road to avoid each other. There are almost certainly at more risk doing that than passing each other on the pavement.
    Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

    Not going to make 6 months are they.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924

    I'm shocked etc...



    Mirror Celeb
    @MirrorCeleb
    #LoveIsland's Zara McDermott admits she did show for fame and money not romance https://mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/love-islands-zara-mcdermott-admits-24545791?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    Did anyone ever think otherwise?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    dixiedean said:

    Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.
    I've never understood this. The fear that has been stoked by the media and the govt is outrageous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    Andy_JS said:

    Did anyone ever think otherwise?
    Next they will be telling us that it isn't all real either....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454

    That's the number of Acute Trusts with a level 1 A&E

    Would think that's a very similar number with a Critical Care beds
    Not necessarily. We have 1 ED in Leicester and 3 hospitals with ICU, but on that basis each Trust with an ED department has about 25 covid inpatients, or a ward full.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924


    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    25m
    Lib Dems are starting to pick candidates for key 'blue wall' target seats.

    Aim is to avoid the mistakes of the party's past - less hype, more groundwork.

    Interview with
    @EdwardJDavey
    in tomorrow's
    @theipaper
    :

    Jeremy Hunt's seat in SW Surrey would near the top of the list if I was in charge of drawing it up.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    But you'd expect a decent proportion of patients admitted to hospital with Covid to end up in critical care, and you won't know which ones. I really think that averaging over the large number of small cottage hospitals that don't even have a minor injuries unit, just so you can get an artificially low average number is a nonsense.

    The figure for the number of hospitals that you have is nearly two per Westminster constituency. Two! It's clearly absurd and gives a misleading impression to use that figure.
    I’m using the only published figure available! 1,250. If someone is actually able to provide a better figure I’ll use that, but given that’s the only one published, it’s hard to see what else I should use.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    Yes, private hospitals were requisitioned in England in the first wave (and the owners renumeration handsomely for their trouble). There are 2 in Leicester with private beds, so add those too our denominator too.

    We currently have 3241 admissions on the government.uk dashboard, so for @Anabobazina figure to be true there would need to be around 1 hospital per 60 000 people in England. That seems a very broad definition so must include a lot of cottage hospitals etc.

    Dunno. It’s a bit of a daft argument as I’m using the only published number. I’m not artificially upgrading or downgrading it, simply using the only number available.

    As I say, if someone has a different figure, I’m happy to use that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    .

    It’s tragic and if it’s anything like the schoolchildren around here, there is absolutely nothing wrong with them. Year 6 children are missing milestones in their life on account of a bug that, in most cases, doesn’t affect them.
    Most of them.
    One of the kids in another class is hospitalised.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Mortimer said:

    I've never understood this. The fear that has been stoked by the media and the govt is outrageous.
    The pavements are tiny though. In fact, you pretty much have to step in the road to pass another pedestrian on most of the roads.
    Maybe it is just that familiarity?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Andy_JS said:

    Did anyone ever think otherwise?
    Maybe it's the equivalent to breaking kayfabe in wrestling?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Mortimer said:

    I've never understood this. The fear that has been stoked by the media and the govt is outrageous.
    Indeed. Widespread reports of people walking into the road to avoid each other. I don’t see it here, but it seems as if it’s a thing in some places. Very worrying. I think it’s going to take some time for people to shake off their fear.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454

    Dunno. It’s a bit of a daft argument as I’m using the only published number. I’m not artificially upgrading or downgrading it, simply using the only number available.

    As I say, if someone has a different figure, I’m happy to use that.
    So it must include not just 3 acute hospitals in Leicester, but also the 2 private hospitals and the 7 cottage hospitals and 2 community psychiatric hospitals.

    Which means Leics has about 4 covid patients per hospital, using that misleading measure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    So it must include not just 3 acute hospitals in Leicester, but also the 2 private hospitals and the 7 cottage hospitals and 2 community psychiatric hospitals.

    Which means Leics has about 4 covid patients per hospital, using that misleading measure.
    Dunno what it includes, I’m just using the only published figure. I’m amazed that there isn’t a single figure that everyone agrees upon TBH.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

    Not going to make 6 months are they.

    Without wishing to be mean to them I just struggle to see the market for yet more news offering. Granted I'm no expert on that, but it feels like you have to make an effort to seek it out, we're already saturated with news outlets, and whatever fresh take it may offer can probably be found in more easily digestable chunks online anyway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    dixiedean said:

    Everyone does that in my village. And they aren't in any danger as there is very little traffic.
    I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362


    Yep. It seems to be 'creative writing' night on PB this evening ;-)
    But look at tomorrow’s front pages.

    Yep. Pingdemic say the papers. Country grinds to halt (in convenient nice weather). Wasn’t this predicted on PB so can hardly come as a surprise? I said it numerous times, I believe Topping did too. You declare freedom, and keep test trace in place. It was obvious what was going to happen.

    On the one hand certain people and media have test trace isolate next in their crosshairs, maybe justifiably, or maybe just never happy with equilibrium so whatever you give them they want more.

    But regardless which, the government must have kept test and trace and not retired it on freedom day for a reason, only they haven’t successfully explained what their reasoning was, have they? Anyone care to explain the government position of test trace post freedom day?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.
    Yes, that’s the same here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    edited July 2021
    kle4 said:

    Without wishing to be mean to them I just struggle to see the market for yet more news offering. Granted I'm no expert on that, but it feels like you have to make an effort to seek it out, we're already saturated with news outlets, and whatever fresh take it may offer can probably be found in more easily digestable chunks online anyway.
    There wasn't even a market before they launched. Sky News regularly only does 50k viewers, even for their "star names".

    And the bit of I watched of GB News is just really bad. There is a market for high quality in depth analysis, there is a market for long form interviews with experts, but GB News just seems like the crappiest bits of Good Morning Britain or Sky News, but added Woke-ism has gone mad spin on everything.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Most of them.
    One of the kids in another class is hospitalised.
    Sorry to hear that. We’ve had loads of children and year groups bubbled here, without any of them reportedly being unwell.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,454
    edited July 2021
    gealbhan said:

    But look at tomorrow’s front pages.

    Yep. Pingdemic say the papers. Country grinds to halt (in convenient nice weather). Wasn’t this predicted on PB so can hardly come as a surprise? I said it numerous times, I believe Topping did too. You declare freedom, and keep test trace in place. It was obvious what was going to happen.

    On the one hand certain people and media have test trace isolate next in their crosshairs, maybe justifiably, or maybe just never happy with equilibrium so whatever you give them they want more.

    But regardless which, the government must have kept test and trace and not retired it on freedom day for a reason, only they haven’t successfully explained what their reasoning was, have they? Anyone care to explain the government position of test trace post freedom day?
    It is hardly surprising with 48 000 new positive cases today, roughly 1 in 120 people, and allowing for contacts in a time of minimal restrictions, there must be on average of at least a couple of contacts per case, so 2-3% of the population of England told to isolate. More presumably in hospots, or front line workers etc.

    Edit, slipped a decimal there! 1 in 1200 incidence per day, perhaps 1 in 400 population are new contacts told to isolate per day, for 10 days, maybe 1/40 isolating at any one time.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm surprised. In my area people walk slightly to the side of each other but they don't cross the road to avoid each other.
    It's a different way of life. Doesn't happen in the two nearest towns. (Pop. 10k and 3k).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Not round here. They can’t get rid of the crap quick enough. Indeed many have already ripped out the paraphernalia and are serving at the bar.

    Maybe some chain pubs will keep the restrictions, but I suspect most won’t.
    The ones I know about by name are independent firms
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    dixiedean said:

    It's a different way of life. Doesn't happen in the two nearest towns. (Pop. 10k and 3k).
    Very worrying. People are living in fear.

    Hmm.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Floater said:

    The ones I know about by name are independent firms
    Up to them, but certainly the opposite is true around me.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Other front page news, as it’s a special night tonight, the Daily Star, surely front page of the year? A masterpiece of clickbait pics and captions, how can you resist?

    When I heard about the Hancock gropeavision raids I wondered who was raided. Could it be employees at The Sun? Surely the Sun are doomed claiming public interest in this one, if it was a sting clearly against the public interest rules? Also of course, spy camera’s in ministerial offices, surely a huge security angle, if leaving secret on bus stops is security breach, then what on earth is spy camera in the office? Surely the government themselves should make more noise on the state security angle of what happened here?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824

    Very worrying. People are living in fear.

    Hmm.
    No they aren't. They're country folk used to space. And there's an abundance of it. So we're used to using it. That's all.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    Other front page news, as it’s a special night tonight, the Daily Star, surely front page of the year? A masterpiece of clickbait pics and captions, how can you resist?

    When I heard about the Hancock gropeavision raids I wondered who was raided. Could it be employees at The Sun? Surely the Sun are doomed claiming public interest in this one, if it was a sting clearly against the public interest rules? Also of course, spy camera’s in ministerial offices, surely a huge security angle, if leaving secret on bus stops is security breach, then what on earth is spy camera in the office? Surely the government themselves should make more noise on the state security angle of what happened here?

    I was wondering why I haven’t seen more on PB about the moon wobble. If the topic came up I must have missed it before it set.

    Meanwhile, on the “i” - vaccine creator, help rest rest of world before jabbing British teenagers.
    Just thought I’d mention that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    NHS Lothian states that it has 21 hospitals.

    This includes the two big hospitals in Edinburgh, which are the two I know about, which are what most people think of when they think of a hospital - the Western General and the Royal Infirmary. Of the same sort of size is St John's in Livingston. These are the three hospitals with A&E departments.

    There's also a Royal Hospital for Children and Young People, which is right next door to the Royal Infirmary, you'd be forgiven for thinking they were the same place.

    You have the Astley Ainslie hospital, which does have some inpatients, but it's a specialist rehabilitation hospital for people with brain injuries, amputations and the like. Would it have had a Covid ward, even at the peak of each wave?

    You have community hospitals in East Lothian and Midlothian that offer minor procedures and endoscopies, but not much else. A cottage hospital in North Berwick.

    The Royal Edinburgh hospital provides mental health services.

    The Royal Victoria Hospital apparently has six wards, and seems to be a facility for providing In-Patient Continuing Care - these seem to be wards for patients that the main hospitals are struggling to discharge.

    St Michael's hospital is in Linlithgow., so looks like another small cottage hospital. As also for Belhaven hospital in Dunbar, the Herdmanflat hospital in Haddington and the Tippethill hospital in West Lothian.

    The Liberton hospital in Edinburgh is a specialist in medicine for elderly patients, including more stroke rehabilitation, but it does describes its wards as being acute wards.

    That's 15 hospitals. The other six don't even have "hospital" in their name on this list. Not sure if the Lauriston building is included in the total of 21 hospitals, which houses a bunch of outpatient services for things such as ear, nose and throat, but no inpatient wards. Maybe the Princess Alexandra Eye Pavilion would be one of the 21 - but it is a specialist eye hospital. I suspect that there's a similar story for the rest of the 21 hospitals in NHS Lothian.

    So, of 21 "hospitals" we have 3 large hospitals with A&E departments, 7 very small hospitals with limited facilities, at least 3, maybe 5, possibly even 9 specialist "hospitals", some of which don't have any inpatient beds, but that all offer very limited services relating to a particular specialism, and a couple of hospitals for dealing with elderly/step-down inpatients.

    It's clearly absurd to include a hospital with no inpatient facilities as part of your denominator. Is it reasonable to include the cottage hospitals? Seems a bit of a stretch. I'd say, maybe about 5 for NHS Lothian - the three A&E hospitals and the two facilities providing specialist elderly or step-down care. That's a factor of 4 fewer hospitals, suggesting a more appropriate denominator for the country would be about 300.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    gealbhan said:

    I was wondering why I haven’t seen more on PB about the moon wobble. If the topic came up I must have missed it before it set.

    Meanwhile, on the “i” - vaccine creator, help rest rest of world before jabbing British teenagers.
    Just thought I’d mention that.
    Is the moon wobbling because a UFO hit it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Boris Johnson’s dreadful ‘levelling-up’ speech
    Was he reading out the pages in random order?
    Peter Franklin"

    https://unherd.com/thepost/boris-johnsons-dreadful-levelling-up-speech/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924

    GB News attracted zero viewers during some of its broadcasts this week, according to official television audience figures produced by rating agency Barb, after a viewer boycott prompted by one of its presenters taking the knee in solidarity with the England football team.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/15/gb-news-shows-attracted-zero-viewers-after-boycott-over-taking-the-knee

    Not going to make 6 months are they.

    The black female presenters on GB News are probably the best ones. Nothing to do with their race or sex, they just happen to be doing a good job in my opinion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    Con gain in the Sandwell council by-election. No figures yet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited July 2021

    NHS Lothian states that it has 21 hospitals.

    This includes the two big hospitals in Edinburgh, which are the two I know about, which are what most people think of when they think of a hospital - the Western General and the Royal Infirmary. Of the same sort of size is St John's in Livingston. These are the three hospitals with A&E departments.

    There's also a Royal Hospital for Children and Young People, which is right next door to the Royal Infirmary, you'd be forgiven for thinking they were the same place.

    You have the Astley Ainslie hospital, which does have some inpatients, but it's a specialist rehabilitation hospital for people with brain injuries, amputations and the like. Would it have had a Covid ward, even at the peak of each wave?

    You have community hospitals in East Lothian and Midlothian that offer minor procedures and endoscopies, but not much else. A cottage hospital in North Berwick.

    The Royal Edinburgh hospital provides mental health services.

    The Royal Victoria Hospital apparently has six wards, and seems to be a facility for providing In-Patient Continuing Care - these seem to be wards for patients that the main hospitals are struggling to discharge.

    St Michael's hospital is in Linlithgow., so looks like another small cottage hospital. As also for Belhaven hospital in Dunbar, the Herdmanflat hospital in Haddington and the Tippethill hospital in West Lothian.

    The Liberton hospital in Edinburgh is a specialist in medicine for elderly patients, including more stroke rehabilitation, but it does describes its wards as being acute wards.

    That's 15 hospitals. The other six don't even have "hospital" in their name on this list. Not sure if the Lauriston building is included in the total of 21 hospitals, which houses a bunch of outpatient services for things such as ear, nose and throat, but no inpatient wards. Maybe the Princess Alexandra Eye Pavilion would be one of the 21 - but it is a specialist eye hospital. I suspect that there's a similar story for the rest of the 21 hospitals in NHS Lothian.

    So, of 21 "hospitals" we have 3 large hospitals with A&E departments, 7 very small hospitals with limited facilities, at least 3, maybe 5, possibly even 9 specialist "hospitals", some of which don't have any inpatient beds, but that all offer very limited services relating to a particular specialism, and a couple of hospitals for dealing with elderly/step-down inpatients.

    It's clearly absurd to include a hospital with no inpatient facilities as part of your denominator. Is it reasonable to include the cottage hospitals? Seems a bit of a stretch. I'd say, maybe about 5 for NHS Lothian - the three A&E hospitals and the two facilities providing specialist elderly or step-down care. That's a factor of 4 fewer hospitals, suggesting a more appropriate denominator for the country would be about 300.

    NHS Newcastle lists 14. One is the dental hospital. 3 nurse-led minor injuries centres, children's hospital, cancer, fertility, sexual health, genetics, geriatrics research and transplant.
    Which leaves 3, realistically for Covid. Cramlington, the Freeman and RVI.
    Which would be most Geordies' ideas of hospitals in Newcastle.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Now this is interesting, the big headline in The Times. Johnson backs new tax to transform social care. Plan likely to include cap on amount people have to pay for their own care.

    More from the article

    “Dilmott suggested a cap of 50k, it is understood the treasury (Sunak) wants higher to minimise costs to the taxpayer”.

    Correct me where wrong, Tess plan had line drawn on going under 100K? And if something is covering a bottom, can it be called a cap?

    But this isn’t pants. Where posters today attacked May’s poor politics in just bouncing it out, this is a government putting out feelers on something “not finalised” just out there now for discussion. So the right way to do it?

    And it is big news. Moon wobbles and police raids, this is the big story Is it not? What is being put out there can be compared straight away with what May suggested. Also, moderate Tory apparatchik like HY has made clear May’s plan is impossible sell on doorstep, so Johnson’s proposals have to pass the HY test? (We are so fortunate to have him. And Big G).

    But really, let’s be honest with each other, the real test here is on Libdems and Labour, who helped the Tory press salt the earth the last time we had a government with a policy to create proper funding mechanism for Social Care.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,980
    gealbhan said:

    Now this is interesting, the big headline in The Times. Johnson backs new tax to transform social care. Plan likely to include cap on amount people have to pay for their own care.

    More from the article

    “Dilmott suggested a cap of 50k, it is understood the treasury (Sunak) wants higher to minimise costs to the taxpayer”.

    Correct me where wrong, Tess plan had line drawn on going under 100K? And if something is covering a bottom, can it be called a cap?

    But this isn’t pants. Where posters today attacked May’s poor politics in just bouncing it out, this is a government putting out feelers on something “not finalised” just out there now for discussion. So the right way to do it?

    And it is big news. Moon wobbles and police raids, this is the big story Is it not? What is being put out there can be compared straight away with what May suggested. Also, moderate Tory apparatchik like HY has made clear May’s plan is impossible sell on doorstep, so Johnson’s proposals have to pass the HY test? (We are so fortunate to have him. And Big G).

    But really, let’s be honest with each other, the real test here is on Libdems and Labour, who helped the Tory press salt the earth the last time we had a government with a policy to create proper funding mechanism for Social Care.

    Seems from the past couple of days the government is trying to move on from just talking about COVID.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755

    There wasn't even a market before they launched. Sky News regularly only does 50k viewers, even for their "star names".

    And the bit of I watched of GB News is just really bad. There is a market for high quality in depth analysis, there is a market for long form interviews with experts, but GB News just seems like the crappiest bits of Good Morning Britain or Sky News, but added Woke-ism has gone mad spin on everything.
    Yes, amazing how it got so far without anyone twigging that Russian bots don't show up in TV viewing figures.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Seems from the past couple of days the government is trying to move on from just talking about COVID.
    Which is commendable. Boris social care tax + cap policy is supposed to be his big 2 years in power present to us.

    Then again his speech on levelling up today seems to be widely regarded as rant against what he, and pretty much all of us don’t like to see happening, and not much flesh on plan for putting things right.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Is the moon wobbling because a UFO hit it?
    The Daily Star was putting UFO and ET on cover several months before Seanflintknapper took it up, so we just have to wait for him to explain to us that it’s a secret Chinese probe that caused it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited July 2021
    gealbhan said:

    Which is commendable. Boris social care tax + cap policy is supposed to be his big 2 years in power present to us.

    Then again his speech on levelling up today seems to be widely regarded as rant against what he, and pretty much all of us don’t like to see happening, and not much flesh on plan for putting things right.
    I'm no great fan of the PM. But his speech today was a spot on analysis of the broad problem. It was Social Democrat. It was correct and I applaud it. Ed Miliband could have made it.
    But, as ever, it lacked any specifics. We have elected Ed by the back door.
    Poor old Ed tried to flesh out his analysis with specifics, and look where that got him!
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    But look at tomorrow’s front pages.

    Yep. Pingdemic say the papers. Country grinds to halt (in convenient nice weather). Wasn’t this predicted on PB so can hardly come as a surprise? I said it numerous times, I believe Topping did too. You declare freedom, and keep test trace in place. It was obvious what was going to happen.

    On the one hand certain people and media have test trace isolate next in their crosshairs, maybe justifiably, or maybe just never happy with equilibrium so whatever you give them they want more.

    But regardless which, the government must have kept test and trace and not retired it on freedom day for a reason, only they haven’t successfully explained what their reasoning was, have they? Anyone care to explain the government position of test trace post freedom day?
    I ask the question can anyone explain the government policy on test trace post freedom day, as I am sure there are minister during media rounds in about five hours who would love to crib any sensible answer.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    dixiedean said:

    I'm no great fan of the PM. But his speech today was a spot on analysis of the broad problem. It was Social Democrat. It was correct and I applaud it. Ed Miliband could have made it.
    But, as ever, it lacked any specifics. We have elected Ed by the back door.
    Poor old Ed tried to flesh out his analysis with specifics, and look where that got him!
    I like to think I know how politics works. The people of this country, including people at Daily Mail and advisors to opposition leaders, went along with trashing the plan May suggested, have had 4 years without a policy tackling this problem, have reflected on that, so will give Boris plan a fair hearing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    Good thread on why Delta spreads more rapidly:

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1415672890926772224
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    edited July 2021
    Average Labour share in the 10 most recent opinion polls is 32.7%, no improvement on the general election where they polled 32.9% in Great Britain. This must be the most concerning thing for Keir Starmer's supporters at the moment.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656

    One of the curiosities is that there's such a strong East-West gradient on the political map. The places where UKIP/BXP/New Model Tories have done really well tend to be along the East Coast. The further west you go, in general, with exceptions, the less the appeal.

    (Look, say at where the really dark blue splodges are on this map;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)

    Are there any good theories about what's going on?
    Yes. George Osborne. Austerity. Government cut funding to councils; councils made cuts; people blamed the Labour councils, and the EU and everyone except the government; voted UKIP then Leave then Tory.

    Btw you mangled your link by not leaving a space before the closing bracket:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Compare the dark blue areas on that map with the red (high austerity) areas on the map here:
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/did-austerity-cause-brexit/

    And this is where I used to say Cameron and Osborne caused Brexit and ended their own careers with their gerrymandering (whose side-effect was disenfranchising pro-Remain voters) and austerity. However, now PB Tories might say, ah, but there is a God and the end result was Conservative hegemony under the great Boris!

    This is what Dominic Cummings saw, hence the levelling up agenda which as we know from Boris's speech yesterday, is, well, who can tell?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    gealbhan said:

    Other front page news, as it’s a special night tonight, the Daily Star, surely front page of the year? A masterpiece of clickbait pics and captions, how can you resist?

    When I heard about the Hancock gropeavision raids I wondered who was raided. Could it be employees at The Sun? Surely the Sun are doomed claiming public interest in this one, if it was a sting clearly against the public interest rules? Also of course, spy camera’s in ministerial offices, surely a huge security angle, if leaving secret on bus stops is security breach, then what on earth is spy camera in the office? Surely the government themselves should make more noise on the state security angle of what happened here?

    One reason the government cannot make too much noise about state security is not to endanger investigations by Special Branch and MI5 because people will rightly wonder why HMG contracted out state security to private sector fat cats employing minimum wage guards.

    Whether Matt snogging Gina was itself an official secret seems unlikely so I think the Sun could be in the clear on that one. The raids are presumably intended as a deterrent and to keep the press in its place.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,848
    New Thread
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    FPT (PPT?)

    Indeed!

    In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.

    Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.

    It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
    In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.

    What scummy, shitty people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.

    I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.

    The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their silly white powder.

    And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642
    Leon said:

    Yes, that's it. Bizarrely he lived a fairly humble life, and still does (by the standards of notably affluent West London)

    I would, in fact, doubt his story, but he immediately furnished it with multiple details (of clients and lifestyles) which proved to be completely valid after a minute of Googling

    I don't disbelieve him. He's telling the truth. It does explain holes in his life story that we all queried, vaguely, but never investigated. Because, good friend
    While you claim to be a knapper of flint dildos I once played rugby in East London with a pornographic jeweller who did some time for dealing weed. Wasn’t even a cover story, he created pornographic items of jewellery while dealing drugs, which is how I now introduce myself at parties where being a solicitor is too staid.
This discussion has been closed.