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Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    That poll was conducted entirely before Willie Rennie's announcement.
    And Westminster too. No PR. So Greens marked down automatically (they are outdoing the LDs at Holyrood considerably, or were).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited July 2021

    10% for the Scottish Lib Dems must be one of their best polls in years. The fact that ragin Wullie is retiring must surely be a factor. Alex Cole-Hamilton might be a lightweight, but at least he doesn’t do that fake anger thing all the time.
    Not that it would make any difference to their Westminster seat total anyway and even if the Tories got 0 seats in Scotland they would still win a UK majority on the latest pollling.

    At Holyrood the SNP minority government has only recently been elected and the UK government has made clear it will refuse indyref2 so Scottish polling is largely irrelevant at present
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Carnyx said:

    And Westminster too. No PR. So Greens marked down automatically (they are outdoing the LDs at Holyrood considerably, or were).
    I've had this discussion with a couple of pollsters, they reckon it nets out as Westminster is FPTP (a bit like the constituency vote at Holyrood) and the Greens don't stand in all Westminster seats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited July 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Not that it would make any difference to their Westminster seat total anyway and even if the Tories got 0 seats in Scotland they would still win a small UK majority on the latest pollling.

    At Holyrood the SNP minority government has only recently been elected and the UK government has made clear it will refuse indyref2 so Scottish polling is largely irrelevant at present
    You sure? THeir support can be very focussed. And it may well hint that LDs are no longer midned to vote tactically for Tories, too. Edit: or even Labour, such as Mr Murray.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Not that it would make any difference to their Westminster seat total anyway and even if the Tories got 0 seats in Scotland they would still win a UK majority on the latest pollling.

    At Holyrood the SNP minority government has only recently been elected and the UK government has made clear it will refuse indyref2 so Scottish polling is largely irrelevant at present
    Not a minority government. Not a majority, but remember the convener is a SG.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

    The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

    Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

    So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

    For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

    London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
    So you’re saying we should wait a few years until it is a howling desolate wasteland and then start buying property?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited July 2021
    Carnyx said:

    You sure? THeir support can be very focussed. And it may well hint that LDs are no longer midned to vote tactically for Tories, too. Edit: or even Labour, such as Mr Murray.
    It suggests a swing of 2.75% from LD to SNP since 2019, which actually could see the SNP pick up Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross and Fife NE from the LDs (remember the Scottish LDs got 9.5% in 2019) unless Scottish Tory and Labour voters continue to tactically vote LD there.

    So if anything it says the LDs could lose a seat or two in Scotland

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    That poll was conducted entirely before Willie Rennie's announcement.
    SLD leader Wullie Rennie’s retirement has been common knowledge for months. They were even discussing it during the endless GE results shows in May.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Charles said:

    Once again you repeat this bullshit

    I have spent 25 years working with the Pharma industry. Your caricature is bollocks and frankly offensive. I have never met anyone who puts profits over lives.

    Ivermectin is NOT PROVEN. They are running a trial to see if it works.
    Yes you have, you just haven't noticed. It is probably not the case that big pharma has the answer to cancer and is suppressing it cos the money's too good, but the pissing about with enantiomers of things like ketamine or citalopram to produce a patent where none should exist in the first place, or if it did it should have expired, is conclusive evidence that what we are looking at here is a bunch of avaricious cnts. There is not the faintest possibility of doubt that lives have been literally lost to suicide, or effectively lost to depression, by shenanigans of this kind.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563

    I think he mentioned Floyd M. as I was going to dish up dinner but don’t know how serious that was.
    Difficult to say. Was it risotto?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.
    You’re moving to the US?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    Helena Wilkinson
    @BBCHelena
    ·
    41s
    Friday’s Daily Telegraph: Neighbours ‘pinged’ through walls by app #tomorrowspaperstoday
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Not that it would make any difference to their Westminster seat total anyway and even if the Tories got 0 seats in Scotland they would still win a UK majority on the latest pollling.

    At Holyrood the SNP minority government has only recently been elected and the UK government has made clear it will refuse indyref2 so Scottish polling is largely irrelevant at present
    Huh? The choice of SLD leader is irrelevant to their prospects at the next Westminster elections? Well, it’s a point of view..

    If you’re happy with 0 SCon MPs then that is fine by me.

    You might think that Scottish election results and poll findings are irrelevant, but Scots don’t.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286


    Helena Wilkinson
    @BBCHelena
    ·
    41s
    Friday’s Daily Telegraph: Neighbours ‘pinged’ through walls by app #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Seems counterintuitive. I thought close contact was based on signal strength, which would be greatly attenuated by a wall.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    edited July 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes you have, you just haven't noticed. It is probably not the case that big pharma has the answer to cancer and is suppressing it cos the money's too good, but the pissing about with enantiomers of things like ketamine or citalopram to produce a patent where none should exist in the first place, or if it did it should have expired, is conclusive evidence that what we are looking at here is a bunch of avaricious cnts. There is not the faintest possibility of doubt that lives have been literally lost to suicide, or effectively lost to depression, by shenanigans of this kind.
    Actually the enantiomer of citalopram (escitalopram) has fewer side effects than the original.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    Omnium said:

    Hard to read anyone else's posts PT. Do post more! (ticheek)
    Its really interesting to read these posts 15 months on. I think it is fair to say very few, if any, and certainly not myself had any idea what the next 15 months held for us. I was clearly more concerned about the economic effects than the deaths (which in fairness were still pretty low at that point) and "in the absence of a vaccine" was in the let it rip camp.

    Its interesting to compare that with my caution now about removing restrictions etc. I still favour that but I am pretty ambivalent given the current rate of infections. The reality of Covid has been a harsh task master for us all. This experience is something those in adulthood now will never forget.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited July 2021

    Huh? The choice of SLD leader is irrelevant to their prospects at the next Westminster elections? Well, it’s a point of view..

    If you’re happy with 0 SCon MPs then that is fine by me.

    You might think that Scottish election results and poll findings are irrelevant, but Scots don’t.
    Well no I would not be happy with it, it would be nice to still have a few Scottish Tory MPs but on current UK polling we would still have a UK Tory majority anyway and with a UK majority we can and will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the Nationalists can do about it.

    As I have said the only way the Nationalists will ever get an indyref2 is a Labour minority government reliant on SNP confidence and supply
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Actually the enantiomer of citalopram (escitalopram) has fewer side effects than the original.
    That's exactly what I'd say if I were trying to market it. Sadly

    "Conclusion

    Presently, the claims about clinically relevant superiority of escitalopram over citalopram in short-to-medium term treatment of major depressive disorder are not supported by evidence."

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2829184/

    And if there is a difference, it's not something you'd spend time on but for the in patent vs out of patent thing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792


    Helena Wilkinson
    @BBCHelena
    ·
    41s
    Friday’s Daily Telegraph: Neighbours ‘pinged’ through walls by app #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Beyond farcical. If it’s not true, it might as well be.

    Enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,290
    .

    Well I am shocked.

    The efficacy of a drug being promoted by rightwing figures worldwide for treating Covid-19 is in serious doubt after a major study suggesting the treatment is effective against the virus was withdrawn due to “ethical concerns”.

    The preprint study on the efficacy and safety of ivermectin – a drug used against parasites such as worms and headlice – in treating Covid-19, led by Dr Ahmed Elgazzar from Benha University in Egypt, was published on the Research Square website in November.

    It claimed to be a randomised control trial, a type of study crucial in medicine because it is considered to provide the most reliable evidence on the effectiveness of interventions due to the minimal risk of confounding factors influencing the results. Elgazzar is listed as chief editor of the Benha Medical Journal, and is an editorial board member.

    The study found that patients with Covid-19 treated in hospital who “received ivermectin early reported substantial recovery” and that there was “a substantial improvement and reduction in mortality rate in ivermectin treated groups” by 90%.

    But the drug’s promise as a treatment for the virus is in serious doubt after the Elgazzar study was pulled from the Research Square website on Thursday “due to ethical concerns”. Research Square did not outline what those concerns were.

    A medical student in London, Jack Lawrence, was among the first to identify serious concerns about the paper, leading to the retraction. He first became aware of the Elgazzar preprint when it was assigned to him by one of his lecturers for an assignment that formed part of his master’s degree. He found the introduction section of the paper appeared to have been almost entirely plagiarised.

    It appeared that the authors had run entire paragraphs from press releases and websites about ivermectin and Covid-19 through a thesaurus to change key words. “Humorously, this led to them changing ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome’ to ‘extreme intense respiratory syndrome’ on one occasion,” Lawrence said.

    The data also looked suspicious to Lawrence, with the raw data apparently contradicting the study protocol on several occasions.

    “The authors claimed to have done the study only on 18-80 year olds, but at least three patients in the dataset were under 18,” Lawrence said.

    “The authors claimed they conducted the study between the 8th of June and 20th of September 2020, however most of the patients who died were admitted into hospital and died before the 8th of June according to the raw data. The data was also terribly formatted, and includes one patient who left hospital on the non-existent date of 31/06/2020.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns

    As I’ve said before, the argument in favour of ivermectin has been based on meta analyses of a bunch of small, poorly designed trials. Putting together a number of statistically poor trials does not make for a better result than any of the trials individually - and when some of those trials appear downright fraudulent, the results are just garbage.
    There is some evidence of an antiviral mechanism for the compound, but no convincing evidence so far for its therapeutic use against Covid. The properly designed NHS trial will settle the matter in due course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,290
    Charles said:

    Once again you repeat this bullshit

    I have spent 25 years working with the Pharma industry. Your caricature is bollocks and frankly offensive. I have never met anyone who puts profits over lives.

    Ivermectin is NOT PROVEN. They are running a trial to see if it works.
    On this, he’s a crank, Charles.
    Don’t let it wind you up.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited July 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Difficult to say. Was it risotto?
    Sea bass, quite unserious, not a drop of stock in sight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited July 2021
    RobD said:

    Seems counterintuitive. I thought close contact was based on signal strength, which would be greatly attenuated by a wall.
    Are we going to find some funny business has been going on?

    Have you been around at Barry's next door again, i told you to stop going round there, you always end up drunk....me no, not been round all week.

    Sharron, your phone says you been pinged due to close contact with Brian next door yesterday when i was away for work...no no, not me, never been round there...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited July 2021

    I think our lack of a written constitution is a good thing not a bad thing. As I said I don't think "checks and balances" work, they lead to complacency. If the wrong person gets in charge of the checks then you're screwed. See: SCOTUS.

    The UK has arguably the world's longest and most successful history of liberal democracy, evolved over centuries, and it is the people that ensure it. As we don't rely upon checks and balances so we've got people from all parties vigilant to protect liberalism.
    I'm afraid that that the unwritten checks and balances inherent in our system are failing. They're simply not prepared for a character like Johnson.

    He openly and mockingly appoints his own brother to the Lords ; tries to get his dining partner Dacre into a position of broadcasting regulatory authority , to allow GB News to gradually create a Fox-style anti-liberaldemocratic conservative culture like that of the US ; prorogues parliament when it challenges him ; eye-winkingly encourages a culture of nepotism throughout his cabinet ; and most recently has apparently appointed his old friend and Bullingdon associate on to the committee on standards.

    The system is not working as it should.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    On this, he’s a crank, Charles.
    Don’t let it wind you up.
    Perhaps, but equally Charles's case seems to be that he has had lunch with a lot of chaps who seemed to be awfully decent chaps, so there. The messing about with unpatented drugs to replace them with identical but patented versions means that depressed people in the US kill themselves because they can't do the copay on the S enantiomer and the R is no longer available. Sad, but there it is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    edited July 2021
    RobD said:

    Seems counterintuitive. I thought close contact was based on signal strength, which would be greatly attenuated by a wall.
    Depends on the wall.

    Older houses walls so thick you could mistake them for Piers Corbyn.

    Newer builds, dental floss thin walls, I can see the bluetooth signal penetrating them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982

    Depends on the wall.

    Older houses walls so thick you could mistake them for Piers Corbyn.

    Newer builds, dental floss thin walls, I can see the bluetooth signal penetrating them.
    I can see it was due to some other sort of penetration.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563

    Sea bass, quite unserious, not a drop of stock in sight.
    Sounds great. Should see you through for a few days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    edited July 2021

    He openly and mockingly appoints his own brother to the Lords
    Without commenting on the other points, while appointing relatives is not something I think should be accepted, his brother did quit as a minister while he was PM, so at least he is not a total patsy.

    On the point about greater codification of constitutional norms, I think people are inclined to put too much faith that such would change or safeguard things. Doesn't matter what is written down if someone has the power, will and support to ignore it anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    Are we going to find some funny business has been going on?

    Have you been around at Barry's next door again, i told you to stop going round there, you always end up drunk....me no, not been round all week.

    Sharron, your phone says you been pinged due to close contact with Brian next door yesterday when i was away for work...no no, not me, never been round there...
    The thing is, when I was pinged it didn't tell me who my close contact was.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I've always been a big supporter of devolution within England so was interested in the Prime Minister's comments today.

    I'm not wholly sure what a "County Deal" is and it doesn't seem the Prime Minister is either. Surrey and Hampshire are not London and expecting Tim Oliver to take over "transport" beyond local buses and cycling seems curious. Are we suggesting for example the County Councils take over South Western Railway? To be fair, they could only do a better job.

    There's no mention of proper devolution such as ending capping and allowing Councils to set whatever Council Tax they consider justified for service provision. There's no mention (no surprise) of handing planning control back to elected local councillors (might be good if you wanted to stop the drift of disillusioned Conservatives to the LDs) and, more important, no mention of moving powers to local authorities and providing adequate resources (public health being one example).

    The problem with County Councils is so much of their funding is taken up by the provision of care to adults and children - until and unless we see a resolution to the provision and funding of adult social care in particular (those the cost of provision of care to vulnerable children is another big drain on resources), the financial question is going to bedevil progress in other areas.

    It also seems the Government has backed away from any talk of ending two-tier local Government and this will be another issue - again, back to Surrey where the Conservative-run County Council faces eleven Districts and Boroughs, many of whom are now run by anti-Conservative groupings. Seeking a common approach to devolution is almost impossible in such a dislocated political environment.

    Yes, Runnymede, Surrey Heath, Reigate & Banstead and Woking (minority) are Conservative led out of the 11 Ds&Bs in Surrey. I completely agree that the possibility of even a basic accommodation with the County is near zero.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    I can see it was due to some other sort of penetration.....
    This is what happens when you have a serial adulterer as PM, the moral hygiene of the country goes into decline.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited July 2021

    The thing is, when I was pinged it didn't tell me who my close contact was.
    In all seriousness, that is the whole point of the google / apple system, its supposed to be anonymous, so where have the telegraph got their story? The whole contract tracing would be much easier if you and the authorities actually knew what interactions caused it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    Beyond farcical. If it’s not true, it might as well be.

    Enough.
    It’s true. My niece had to self isolate as the man in the office above hers had Covid and she was within 2M of him even though he was on a different floor, working for a different company and she never met him.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010

    In all seriousness, that is the whole point of the google / apple system, so where have the telegraph got their story? The whole contract tracing would be much easier if you and the authorities actually knew what interactions caused it.
    Bluetooth connectivity. Which could happen through terrace/semi walls if both parties left their phones next to the through wall.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Taz said:

    It’s true. My niece had to self isolate as the man in the office above hers had Covid and she was within 2M of him even though he was on a different floor, working for a different company and she never met him.

    How does your niece know it was due to him and not due to anyone else that she has been in contact with? 🤔
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    edited July 2021
    Hey Siri, please show me some direct discrimination under the Equality Act of 2010.

    Er, Cllr Katie Lomas says she has been told she cannot take part in a council debate about disabled people accessing York city centre at the meeting - because she is disabled

    She has requested to take part, saying she feels this is discriminatory, but will not be allowed

    She says she has been told she has a personal interest in the debate over whether blue badge holders can access York city centre, as she has a blue badge


    https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415729654514790405
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471

    The population of Wales is about 3 million. The only county-like entities that would match that would be Greater London, West Midlands, Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire.

    Other impressive counties are relatively titchy. Take Hampshire. Even folding Portsmouth and Southampton back in only gets you to 1.8 million, about the same as Kent and Essex. For comparison, N Ireland is 1.6 million. Other counties are just to small to take on other functions. Cambridgeshire is about 850k, Oxfordshire is 680k.

    Which is why people who look at devolving from Westminster end up creating regions, and the concept of regions makes lots of people cry. Meanwhile England as an entity is just too big to manage well. So we're stuck.

    The other elephant in the room is money. It was bad enough 20 years ago; basically the maximum allowed council income matched the minimum standard of expected services, so there was approximately no political discretion at all. That was before austerity, the 2% rule on Council Tax and the ballooning of social care costs. You have to wonder why anyone in local government bothers any more.
    Not sure the size thing is that important as there are plenty of smaller independent economic units pub there. The cantons of Switzerland: largest is about 1.5 million people and the smallest in the 10s of thousands, and they have very significant autonomy over a wide range of policy as well as tax and spend powers. I know we’re not Switzerland but there are other examples too, including small US cities, German municipalities and so on.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Taz said:

    It’s true. My niece had to self isolate as the man in the office above hers had Covid and she was within 2M of him even though he was on a different floor, working for a different company and she never met him.

    🤦‍♂️
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited July 2021
    JohnO said:

    Yes, Runnymede, Surrey Heath, Reigate & Banstead and Woking (minority) are Conservative led out of the 11 Ds&Bs in Surrey. I completely agree that the possibility of even a basic accommodation with the County is near zero.
    The Tories now only need to lose 5 seats to lose control of Surrey CC too, Surrey is now full of Tory-LD marginals like Esher and Walton and Guildford and Surrey SW, it is no longer the ultra safe Tory county of the Major years that stayed true blue as other areas fell to Blair and Ashdown.

    By contrast here in Essex, which used to be classic marginal territory with lots of seats won by New Labour, every seat is Tory held and most with big majorities and at county council level the Tories have a large majority of 31 now
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    edited July 2021

    How does your niece know it was due to him and not due to anyone else that she has been in contact with? 🤔
    Dunno why you need the snarky emoticon. It’s what she told me. She’d been called by test and trace. Came from them. She works in a small office.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Hey Siri, please show me some direct discrimination under the Equality Act of 2010.

    Er, Cllr Katie Lomas says she has been told she cannot take part in a council debate about disabled people accessing York city centre at the meeting - because she is disabled

    She has requested to take part, saying she feels this is discriminatory, but will not be allowed

    She says she has been told she has a personal interest in the debate over whether blue badge holders can access York city centre, as she has a blue badge


    https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415729654514790405

    Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?
    Nopez it was absolutely as direct and stupid as it sounds.

    It has been (partially) rowed back
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Well no I would not be happy with it, it would be nice to still have a few Scottish Tory MPs but on current UK polling we would still have a UK Tory majority anyway and with a UK majority we can and will continue to refuse indyref2 and there is nothing the Nationalists can do about it.

    As I have said the only way the Nationalists will ever get an indyref2 is a Labour minority government reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    “the only way”

    Well, it’s a point of view.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    kle4 said:

    Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?
    Update

    Council U-turn - Councillors Katie Lomas and Ashley Mason - who were told they could not speak in a debate about disabled people accessing the city centre because they are disabled and have a personal interest - WILL now take part

    The decision was reversed in meeting break


    https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415755863000850439
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Taz said:

    Dunno why you need the snarky emoticon. It’s what she told me. She’d been called by test and trace. Came from them. She works in a small office.
    Do Test and Trace tell you who the contact is?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    kle4 said:

    Doesn't seem to make sense anyway before you even get onto the business of protected characteristics - goodness knows who told her that, it's not even as though a personal non-pecuniary interest prevents you from participating in most instances. Hard to see on what basis it could make sense, if they were even making a decision. Must be more to it, surely, some procedural issue of how many speakers permitted or something?
    It's like saying someone who is a tax payer cannot take part in a debate about cutting taxes. Hopefully she was allowed to attend in the end.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories now only need to lose 5 seats to lose control of Surrey CC too, Surrey is now full of Tory-LD marginals like Esher and Walton and Guildford and Surrey SW, it is no longer the ultra safe Tory county of the Major years that stayed true blue as other areas fell to Blair and Ashdown.

    By contrast here in Essex, which used to be classic marginal territory with lots of seats won by New Labour, every seat is Tory held and most with big majorities and at county council level the Tories have a large majority of 31 now
    Not quite, Cons 47 others 34 so seven seats! But point taken...though don't forget that Guildford had a LibDem MP until 2010 and Jeremy Hunt only held Surrey SW by three figures in 2005. E&W had an over 20,000 majority just 4 years ago in 2017 and the LibDems did not do well in the May elections albeit they captured Cobham in a by-election last week.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    Do Test and Trace tell you who the contact is?
    I don't think they are permitted to.

    Pings via the App are anonymous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Update

    Council U-turn - Councillors Katie Lomas and Ashley Mason - who were told they could not speak in a debate about disabled people accessing the city centre because they are disabled and have a personal interest - WILL now take part

    The decision was reversed in meeting break


    https://twitter.com/ChloeLaversuch/status/1415755863000850439
    I'll bet it was. Foolish chair or foolish adviser I wonder.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

    How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

    With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

    Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    edited July 2021

    Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

    I’ve noticed that here too, and among friends and colleagues. We are an empirical species: we see the facts around us and react. Sometimes overreact of course, and sometimes react too late. But that’s why the modelling of this pandemic, little of which takes any account of behavioural feedback loops, always seems to get the peaks too high and the troughs too deep.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


    One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

    God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

    *I have changed details
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited July 2021
    JohnO said:

    Not quite, Cons 47 others 34 so seven seats! But point taken...though don't forget that Guildford had a LibDem MP until 2010 and Jeremy Hunt only held Surrey SW by three figures in 2005. E&W had an over 20,000 majority just 4 years ago in 2017 and the LibDems did not do well in the May elections albeit they captured Cobham in a by-election last week.
    Wiki now has Surrey Cons 45 Others 36
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrey_County_Council

    Guildford it is true had a LD MP for 1 term but that is the only seat the Tories have lost in the county before. At the next election it is conceivable Surrey SW, Esher and Walton, Woking as well as Guildford could all go yellow as they are all in the top 50 LD target seats.

    By contrast here in Essex seats like Harlow and Clacton and Harwich and Thurrock which Blair won are not even in the top 100 Labour target seats or Colchester which was LD is not in the top 50 LD targets either.

    In 2019 the Tories got 64% in Essex but only 53% in Surrey
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Leon said:

    Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


    One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

    God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

    *I have changed details

    Sean, you’re such a twerp.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today for various reasons, and was struck by the level of caution - more than when I last went in. Masks ubiquitous in shops and quite a few wearing them in the street and/or walking around each other (and politely thanking each other for doing so). It's possible that they're poised to go wild when officially allowed to, but they certainly didn't look like it.

    I used to be the person who stepped off the kerb or crossed the road. Now, as Mr 2-Jabs, I take the wall side of the pavement and let others decide how wide a gap they need.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Sean, you’re such a twerp.
    I'm not this creepy Sean character Obvs. But you have to admit my anecdote is better value than

    "Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today "

    Not least because mine is true. A total double life for several decades. FFS
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Leon said:

    Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


    One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

    God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

    *I have changed details

    Lock him up.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    JohnO said:

    Oh, I did reply very soon after your kind email and was wondering about the 'silence' from your end! Wonder what happened. Will try again but in short, I'm pretty well back to full strength and would love to have another drink/nosh, either in town or midway betwixt you and the Dem Rep of Hersham!
    Hi John, not sure what's happened there but great news!

    Maybe try VM emailing me direct to my username in a new thread??
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    With the rising rates, people are certainly getting anxious, and complying with no real complaint at my Trust.

    Incidentally, we have been told that the new rules will not apply in our hospital until 2022, and to stick to current rules until then.
    Presumably that limits hospital capacity?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563
    edited July 2021

    How do people politely thank each other for wearing masks in the open air? Do they doff their masks or is there some other signifier?
    It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,290
    IshmaelZ said:

    Perhaps, but equally Charles's case seems to be that he has had lunch with a lot of chaps who seemed to be awfully decent chaps, so there. The messing about with unpatented drugs to replace them with identical but patented versions means that depressed people in the US kill themselves because they can't do the copay on the S enantiomer and the R is no longer available. Sad, but there it is.
    Is citalopram not available as a generic in the US ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Leon said:

    I'm not this creepy Sean character Obvs. But you have to admit my anecdote is better value than

    "Had to go into the main shopping area of Godalming today "

    Not least because mine is true. A total double life for several decades. FFS
    Why tell you now though?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


    One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

    God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

    *I have changed details

    Incredible. He just made up the wife, children and disability?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited July 2021
    Foxy said:

    I don't think they are permitted to.

    Pings via the App are anonymous.
    That's what I thought. Hence @Taz's niece has no idea whether it was the man in the office above hers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    Presumably that limits hospital capacity?
    It would seem so.
  • kle4 said:

    I'll bet it was. Foolish chair or foolish adviser I wonder.
    I have sometimes wondered, though, whether I should speak up about accessibility in an institution of which I am a Trustee. On one hand I wouldn't want even the slightest suggestion that I was advocating for my own interest -- I would rather keep silent in order to avoid a conflict, no matter how minor -- but on the other hand, if I don't speak up then nobody would notice the problems.

    In recent years I've tended to say more on this topic, while slightly squirming about the possible conflict. What tipped me over the edge was a plan for an entire new building which could not be accessed, in any way, without going up steps. At the time my objection was batted aside but thankfully the entire plan was later scrapped.

    --AS
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Why tell you now though?
    Good question. I think it is because he nearly died last year, and because he could still die quite soon. He is modestly proud of this remarkable subterfuge, and the fact that - whereas he seemed to have a fairly dull life - his life has in fact been "the opposite", if you see celebrity and minor crime that way

    It was Le-Carre-esque. The final revealing of a double agent
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    MaxPB said:
    Similar to the cost of epipens for allergy usage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    Hugo Gye
    @HugoGye
    ·
    25m
    Lib Dems are starting to pick candidates for key 'blue wall' target seats.

    Aim is to avoid the mistakes of the party's past - less hype, more groundwork.

    Interview with
    @EdwardJDavey
    in tomorrow's
    @theipaper
    :
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,079
    HYUFD said:

    Wiki now has Surrey Cons 45 Others 36
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrey_County_Council

    Guildford it is true had a LD MP for 1 term but that is the only seat the Tories have lost in the county before. At the next election it is conceivable Surrey SW, Esher and Walton, Woking as well as Guildford could all go yellow as they are all in the top 50 LD target seats.

    By contrast here in Essex seats like Harlow and Clacton and Harwich and Thurrock which Blair won are not even in the top 100 Labour target seats or Colchester which was LD is not in the top 50 LD targets either.

    In 2019 the Tories got 64% in Essex but only 53% in Surrey
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
    One of the curiosities is that there's such a strong East-West gradient on the political map. The places where UKIP/BXP/New Model Tories have done really well tend to be along the East Coast. The further west you go, in general, with exceptions, the less the appeal.

    (Look, say at where the really dark blue splodges are on this map;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)

    Are there any good theories about what's going on?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    Leon said:

    Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park


    One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc

    God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK

    *I have changed details

    Sounds like a good concept for a book....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    I'm shocked etc...



    Mirror Celeb
    @MirrorCeleb
    #LoveIsland's Zara McDermott admits she did show for fame and money not romance https://mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/love-islands-zara-mcdermott-admits-24545791?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TOPPING said:

    It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.
    Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    It would seem so.
    Presumably that’s a bad call?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982

    I'm shocked etc...



    Mirror Celeb
    @MirrorCeleb
    #LoveIsland's Zara McDermott admits she did show for fame and money not romance https://mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/love-islands-zara-mcdermott-admits-24545791?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    It would actually be news that somebody was on the show for romance.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    I have sometimes wondered, though, whether I should speak up about accessibility in an institution of which I am a Trustee. On one hand I wouldn't want even the slightest suggestion that I was advocating for my own interest -- I would rather keep silent in order to avoid a conflict, no matter how minor -- but on the other hand, if I don't speak up then nobody would notice the problems.

    In recent years I've tended to say more on this topic, while slightly squirming about the possible conflict. What tipped me over the edge was a plan for an entire new building which could not be accessed, in any way, without going up steps. At the time my objection was batted aside but thankfully the entire plan was later scrapped.

    --AS
    You should always speak out about concerns like that. If not you, who?

    However, I struggle to understand how any new building in the UK would get planning approval without wheelchair access.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    edited July 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Wiki now has Surrey Cons 45 Others 36
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrey_County_Council

    Guildford it is true had a LD MP for 1 term but that is the only seat the Tories have lost in the county before. At the next election it is conceivable Surrey SW, Esher and Walton, Woking as well as Guildford could all go yellow as they are all in the top 50 LD target seats.

    By contrast here in Essex seats like Harlow and Clacton and Harwich and Thurrock which Blair won are not even in the top 100 Labour target seats or Colchester which was LD is not in the top 50 LD targets either.

    In 2019 the Tories got 64% in Essex but only 53% in Surrey
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_England
    No. That's wrong. Def Cons 47 and I should know as a SCC Tory Councillor! Correct wiki is

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Surrey_County_Council_election

    Who knows what will happen next time. Surrey gains a seat in the Boundary changes and that should help a bit. My guess is that, in the end, perhaps one seat will be lost to the LDs, particularly if the Local Plan/Green Belt controversy persists in Guildford and Waverley. But overall don't disagree with your basic argument.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716

    Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.
    At my local water hole tonight I made a joke on entering that maybe I could order at the bar rather than use the app. to save everyone time. I was laughingly told that 'that treat we are holding back until Monday'.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I used to be the person who stepped off the kerb or crossed the road. Now, as Mr 2-Jabs, I take the wall side of the pavement and let others decide how wide a gap they need.

    Indeed. There is no more protection available to you. Unless we lockdown again, and then we simply delay it running through the antivaxxers until winter.

    For the first, and quite possibly the last, time, I agree with Boris.

    Get it done.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2021

    Lock him up.
    Indeed!

    In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.

    Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.

    It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457

    Presumably that’s a bad call?
    In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

    Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    That's what I thought. Hence @Taz's niece has no idea whether it was the man in the office above hers.
    Presumably she has a fair idea, if there’s office gossip that some geezer upstairs is isolating because he’s caught Corona?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Leon said:

    Good question. I think it is because he nearly died last year, and because he could still die quite soon. He is modestly proud of this remarkable subterfuge, and the fact that - whereas he seemed to have a fairly dull life - his life has in fact been "the opposite", if you see celebrity and minor crime that way

    It was Le-Carre-esque. The final revealing of a double agent
    Dunno. You sure he's not trying to flush you out? That would be more LeCarrie.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Sounds like a good concept for a book....
    It is too far fetched for a book

    I'm still somewhat boggled by it all. I guess my friendship network is something of a self-selecting peer group of hedonistic, bohemian, drug-prone males in their 40s and 50s, who will always have colourful stories, but still.

    This is exceptional. A total double life for decades. Whoah
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563

    Either that or Godalming is entirely unique within London and SE England. Round here, in the far north London suburbs, life is almost back to normal. I’ve even been served at the bar in pubs a few times. This gratuitously cautious and polite masked street dance of which Nick speaks certainly hasn’t made it this side of the water.
    Nick is a super bright guy but IIRC can't see the point of certain elements of modern social life (was it pubs? Certainly other stuff normal people do).

    And he is a legislator. Imagine the people who might suffer on account of his blinkered, theoretical point of view.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Presumably she has a fair idea, if there’s office gossip that some geezer upstairs is isolating because he’s caught Corona?
    Only if she's had no contacts at all with anyone else... not gone to the shops, not gone out at all, etc.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    Leon said:

    It is too far fetched for a book

    I'm still somewhat boggled by it all. I guess my friendship network is something of a self-selecting peer group of hedonistic, bohemian, drug-prone males in their 40s and 50s, who will always have colourful stories, but still.

    This is exceptional. A total double life for decades. Whoah
    Is it?

    Surely a drug dealer needs a cover story, so he doesn't get nicked too easily?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Leon said:

    It is too far fetched for a book

    I'm still somewhat boggled by it all. I guess my friendship network is something of a self-selecting peer group of hedonistic, bohemian, drug-prone males in their 40s and 50s, who will always have colourful stories, but still.

    This is exceptional. A total double life for decades. Whoah
    Reminds me a bit of this one by William Boyd...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ordinary_Thunderstorms
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    TOPPING said:

    It's bollocks. Nick inventing stuff to suit his narrative.
    Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

    *and PB is spin central
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Foxy said:

    In terms of tackling the backlogs yes, in terms of infection control in the middle of the 4th wave, time will tell.

    Now up to 58 admissions with covid. Some shockingly young adults on ICU. Certainly I am being cautious at present.
    You are exceptionally unlucky as there is only an average of three covid patients per hospital UK wide. The Leicestershire area does seem to have massively disproportionately affected since this shitshow began.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    edited July 2021
    Toon absolutely dead. And was an absolutely gorgeous evening. Not the wild bacchanalia of 2 or 3 weeks back. Nor the rampaging stag and hen parties. Very quiet, but noticeably fewer masks.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570
    Being pinged through the wall is the modern equivalent of catching something from a toilet seat.

    Night all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,563

    Nah. Nick may have the occasional Blairesque spin*, but he’s not a liar.

    *and PB is spin central
    He is absolutely not a liar. But people also see things they want to see.

    In his example people are thanking others for letting them go ahead on the pavement as you or I might if we approached an obstacle and someone let us go first.

    In Nick's mind this shows specific gratitude for everyone wearing a mask.

    It's bollocks.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited July 2021
    Foxy said:

    Is it?

    Surely a drug dealer needs a cover story, so he doesn't get nicked too easily?
    What's the point in being a drug dealer if your cover story requires you live as if on disability benefits? No flash holidays, expensive cars, Michelin restaurant dinners...
This discussion has been closed.