Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

williamglenn said:

South African police minister shows off looted ammunition and says that people are preparing for war:

https://twitter.com/pine_tree_riots/status/1415682348985716736

YBarddCwsc said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.

I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.

(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

noneoftheabove said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.

I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)

There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurge


Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)

I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2


As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc

Now gone. *sad face*

Thanks for the suggestion of Ran&A - I'll try them. I never liked Atlantic Bar - too much of a braying shed.

There was some place on Haymarket (I think) that was a really simple cooker of fish (and very good at is), but the prices were about 10x what they should have been.

Given your username it seems remiss not to point out your near namesake, Omnino and its sister Omnino Brazilian BBQ are very much worth visits if they return if you also enjoy steak.

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.

I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.

(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).

Seemed like a good idea to me. I'm sure there would have been issues to iron out, but at least it was trying something, attempting to grapple with a major problem. It was a brave move (and I mean that as a compliment) to propose it during a GE, even one she had anticipated winning easily, rather than just sneak it out after the presumed win.

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.

I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.

(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).

Seemed like a good idea to me. I'm sure there would have been issues to iron out, but at least it was trying something, attempting to grapple with a major problem. It was a brave move (and I mean that as a compliment) to propose it during a GE, even one she had anticipated winning easily, rather than just sneak it out after the presumed win.

HYUFD said:

50% of Americans would take a trip to the moon if offered the chance but only 43% of Britons

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1415690392704536582?s=20

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped y

s is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpes. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped y

s is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpes. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

I'm thinking of Cornwall, Dorset, Australia, Portugal, Greece or Thailand

Not yet, but in a few years (kids, etc)

I maybe have the option of a nice house on Scotland Island, north of Sydney, Owned by a close friend who is considering a big life change as well (ie, me). Quite tempting. Wake up, catch fish, cook breakfast, lie in hammock, drink wine. Sydney an hour away

Benpointer said:

On the subject of restaurants, we're at the Sadler's Wells in early September, any recommendations nearby? We like Moro but it might be nice to try somewhere else.

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.

I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.

(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).

Seemed like a good idea to me. I'm sure there would have been issues to iron out, but at least it was trying something, attempting to grapple with a major problem. It was a brave move (and I mean that as a compliment) to propose it during a GE, even one she had anticipated winning easily, rather than just sneak it out after the presumed win.

It was a brave move (and I mean that Yes, Minister style) to slip it out undebated during the general election.

It gave no time to debate the issue properly or have it considered on its merits, which has now salted the earth to make it tougher for anything like that to actually go through now.

Considering no election was scheduled yet it could have been floated either before the election, or after it, but to propose it during the election? That was stupid.

DougSeal said:

Stocky said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

How are you managing to get accepted?. You still working I guess - occupation qualifies you?

Married to a Yank.

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Charming.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped y

s is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpes. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

I'm thinking of Cornwall, Dorset, Australia, Portugal, Greece or Thailand

Not yet, but in a few years (kids, etc)

I maybe have the option of a nice house on Scotland Island, north of Sydney, Owned by a close friend who is considering a big life change as well (ie, me). Quite tempting. Wake up, catch fish, cook breakfast, lie in hammock, drink wine. Sydney an hour away

Is there enough work for a humble flint knapper there though?

Stocky said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

May be a bit more complex than you think.

It is often said that the people who are most opposed to the parent's house being brought into the financial assessment are opposed because it will limit or remove their inheritance - and this is true.

But it is also true, and I speak from personal experience, that the home is regarded by the elderly parents as the family home, not purely their home; and is, indeed, their pride and joy. Their main achievement in life. Taking that away to maintain them in a nursing home is intolerable to them. In their minds it is already their children's asset.

Funding from other assets is less problematic, but the family home in their view should be untouchable and would cause significant mental anguish if this were threatened.

And there are an awful lot of familys where the ONLY asset, bar chump change, is the property.

Philip_Thompson said:

It was a brave move (and I mean that Yes, Minister style) to slip it out undebated during the general election.

It gave no time to debate the issue properly or have it considered on its merits, which has now salted the earth to make it tougher for anything like that to actually go through now.

Considering no election was scheduled yet it could have been floated either before the election, or after it, but to propose it during the election? That was stupid.

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

May be a bit more complex than you think.

It is often said that the people who are most opposed to the parent's house being brought into the financial assessment are opposed because it will limit or remove their inheritance - and this is true.

But it is also true, and I speak from personal experience, that the home is regarded by the elderly parents as the family home, not purely their home; and is, indeed, their pride and joy. Their main achievement in life. Taking that away to maintain them in a nursing home is intolerable to them. In their minds it is already their children's asset.

Funding from other assets is less problematic, but the family home in their view should be untouchable and would cause significant mental anguish if this were threatened.

And there are an awful lot of familys where the ONLY asset, bar chump change, is the property.

The main problem I had with it was the ever present one

Spend your life as a profligate with money not saving nor accumulating assets.....get taxpayers to fund your care

Do the right thing and save and set yourself up for old age.......you get it all taken as your reward if you need care.

This gives a perverse disincentive to bother saving in my view and there needs to be some balance here.

ydoethur said:

Cookie said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

Also, the rebounded London might look different.

If the working world is moving towards a model of working alone on some days, working together on other days, there won't be the same need to pour millions of workers into London every day. But there will still be a need for a hub where remote workers can do all the stuff that workers do when they congregate.

London is still fantastically well configured for that- all the lines of communication pass through it, in a way that doesn't really work for anywhere else. And if a couple of days in the Big Smoke, pressing the flesh, becomes the norm... the market for all the fun stuff London has to offer looks quite promising. More so than at the moment, because working in London full-time dulls the senses as to what's on offer.

It is, however, ridiculously peripheral. It's tucked away right down there in the bottom corner of the country.

Londoners have always had a mysterious belief that London was somehow really easy for everyone else to get to - but everywhere else was somehow far too difficult for Londoners to get to. That may change, if London breathes out for a bit.

The places I’ve always found ridiculously inaccessible are East Surrey and Kent.

There just isn’t a decent road to them, largely because they’re next to London and all the roads there are a bit shit.

Plus there are almost no direct trains, or even changes at the same station. Again, because of London.

Stocky said:

Pagan2 said:

Stocky said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

May be a bit more complex than you think.

It is often said that the people who are most opposed to the parent's house being brought into the financial assessment are opposed because it will limit or remove their inheritance - and this is true.

But it is also true, and I speak from personal experience, that the home is regarded by the elderly parents as the family home, not purely their home; and is, indeed, their pride and joy. Their main achievement in life. Taking that away to maintain them in a nursing home is intolerable to them. In their minds it is already their children's asset.

Funding from other assets is less problematic, but the family home in their view should be untouchable and would cause significant mental anguish if this were threatened.

And there are an awful lot of familys where the ONLY asset, bar chump change, is the property.

The main problem I had with it was the ever present one

Spend your life as a profligate with money not saving nor accumulating assets.....get taxpayers to fund your care

Do the right thing and save and set yourself up for old age.......you get it all taken as your reward if you need care.

This gives a perverse disincentive to bother saving in my view and there needs to be some balance here.

Yes, I get you, but you could say that about a lot of things.

For example my daughter (17) is working in a pub and cafe. Saving like a demon. When she leaves school and enters low paid employment (which she will) her savings will be in danger of making her ineligible for universal benefit because this new benefit is means-tested against savings whereas tax credits were not. The person next to her at work doing the same job but has not saved up anything, in effect, will get paid more for for doing the same job.

Re: the issue in point: is it right that the taxpayer has to fund care when the money could come from, in effect, the inheritances of the children? It is a tricky one because, as my post lays out, one surely has to consider the end-of-life wishes of the elderly parent.

We do have some balance already of course, cash and non-property assets go to pay care, main residence you keep.

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

Leon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped y

s is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpes. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

I’m moving to downtown New Haven, CT. Have to say I’m quite looking forward to it.

I'm thinking of Cornwall, Dorset, Australia, Portugal, Greece or Thailand

Not yet, but in a few years (kids, etc)

I maybe have the option of a nice house on Scotland Island, north of Sydney, Owned by a close friend who is considering a big life change as well (ie, me). Quite tempting. Wake up, catch fish, cook breakfast, lie in hammock, drink wine. Sydney an hour away

Is there enough work for a humble flint knapper there though?

Probably not. I'd likely have to come back to Blighty in the spring and summer to drum up butt plug orders


Winter in Oz, summer in Europe. Tolerable

Their summer or ours?

You know what he means.

I spent 40 years thinking that Australian sailors were nutters because the Sydney to Hobart race is dangerous enough anyway, without holding it in midwinter. Then the lightbulb moment.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Charming.

I wonder whether there is a correlation between Leavers and unvaccinated and obese?

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Charming.

I wonder whether there is a correlation between Leavers and unvaccinated and obese?

I know some svelte rabid Brexiteers, but I like the notional correlation.

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Charming.

I wonder whether there is a correlation between Leavers and unvaccinated and obese?

I know some svelte rabid Brexiteers, but I like the notional correlation.

pigeon said:

You've only two choices in that situation: shield forever (and some people who are extremely frightened, extremely vulnerable or both will do that,) or accept that you've as much protection from this thing as you're ever likely to get and get out there and start living your life again.

IshmaelZ said:

Omnium said:

Let's hope the next lightbulb arrives sooner.

You'd be lucky to be granted that kind of insight more than once in a lifetime.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.

I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)

There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurge


Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)

I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2


As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc

Now gone. *sad face*

We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.

Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.

Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

Back in 1963, the US lost the USS Thresher with all hands. The nuclear submarine was believed to have sunk below crush death quickly.

However, recently-released documents indicate that at least one person may have been alive on the Thresher a day after the supposed sinking: another submarine detected several different attempts at communications, e.g. the rescue beacon, sonar pings, garbled radio and bashing on the hull.

It was a noisy acoustic environment with all the search ships around, but this went on for hours. It was also in very deep water, so if it was still mostly intact, it would have had to be above the crush depth.

The excellent Jive Turkey has a long video on it, linked below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV5FGTxIU4Q

This leads to many questions, considering up to now the story was that the US Navy heard implosion sounds a day earlier. It'll be interesting to see what else comes out. My bet would be the sounds heard were erroneous, the other submarine's crew being desperate to hear signs of their comrades and confusing different signals.

But it is intriguing. A US Navy cover-up?

Malmesbury said:

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh

Well their choice, they have all been offered both jabs now

Let them die, it will raise national average IQ

Ditto the obese. Off you waddle

Charming.

I wonder whether there is a correlation between Leavers and unvaccinated and obese?

I know some svelte rabid Brexiteers, but I like the notional correlation.

The data actually shows the reverse. At MSOA level it is quite revealing.

PamelaW said:

I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.

Cookie said:

MattW said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

I forecast a peak of 50k. Given schools break up next week, I'd be very surprised if I'm far out.

I forecast it will be back at 40k by the 19th.

I think most schools break up tomorrow, don't they? Trafford have another week to go, but we're normally late, having had a two week Whit.

I reckon about 50k as the peak of the smoothed average too. No special insight, just extending the curve.

Though we do appear to have had a genuine blip this week. Many (not me) predicted a Euros final bump, and this looks like it.

Stocky said:

ping said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

gealbhan said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.

Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.

Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.

Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority

Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.

What would Oscar say in such a situation...

I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.

I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)

Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.

Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory Party

Can you give examples that convince you are?

crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.

For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?

And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?

The party supports refusing indyref2.

Even May scrapped a dementia tax.

Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction

“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.

Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?

And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?

Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.

The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.

Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes

“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”

Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.

But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.

What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?

I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.

Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.

May be a bit more complex than you think.

It is often said that the people who are most opposed to the parent's house being brought into the financial assessment are opposed because it will limit or remove their inheritance - and this is true.

But it is also true, and I speak from personal experience, that the home is regarded by the elderly parents as the family home, not purely their home; and is, indeed, their pride and joy. Their main achievement in life. Taking that away to maintain them in a nursing home is intolerable to them. In their minds it is already their children's asset.

Funding from other assets is less problematic, but the family home in their view should be untouchable and would cause significant mental anguish if this were threatened.

And there are an awful lot of familys where the ONLY asset, bar chump change, is the property.

IshmaelZ said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Cookie said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

Also, the rebounded London might look different.

If the working world is moving towards a model of working alone on some days, working together on other days, there won't be the same need to pour millions of workers into London every day. But there will still be a need for a hub where remote workers can do all the stuff that workers do when they congregate.

London is still fantastically well configured for that- all the lines of communication pass through it, in a way that doesn't really work for anywhere else. And if a couple of days in the Big Smoke, pressing the flesh, becomes the norm... the market for all the fun stuff London has to offer looks quite promising. More so than at the moment, because working in London full-time dulls the senses as to what's on offer.

It is, however, ridiculously peripheral. It's tucked away right down there in the bottom corner of the country.

Londoners have always had a mysterious belief that London was somehow really easy for everyone else to get to - but everywhere else was somehow far too difficult for Londoners to get to. That may change, if London breathes out for a bit.

The places I’ve always found ridiculously inaccessible are East Surrey and Kent.

There just isn’t a decent road to them, largely because they’re next to London and all the roads there are a bit shit.

Plus there are almost no direct trains, or even changes at the same station. Again, because of London.

I remember some yeats ago complaining that HS2 wasn't linked to HS1 in any useful way - ie no prospect of you, me or anyone else north of Islington being able to take a direct train to somewhere civilised like Avignon without having to get out in London and walk between stations with your luggage, or take the Tube ditto, and I was sneered at here for being so demanding ...

Slouching towards St Pancras...

Cookie said:

MattW said:

rcs1000 said:

not_on_fire said:

48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.

I forecast a peak of 50k. Given schools break up next week, I'd be very surprised if I'm far out.

I forecast it will be back at 40k by the 19th.

I think most schools break up tomorrow, don't they? Trafford have another week to go, but we're normally late, having had a two week Whit.

I reckon about 50k as the peak of the smoothed average too. No special insight, just extending the curve.

Though we do appear to have had a genuine blip this week. Many (not me) predicted a Euros final bump, and this looks like it.

Carnyx said:

Gnud said:

PamelaW said:

I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.

A Sindyref rerun is unlikely to happen unless the SNP and Greens together win a majority of votes in the Holyrood election in 2026, or at least in the next British general election. The main way it could come about earlier is if a majority vote for pro-indy parties in a Holyrood election that's called early. But that would require that SNP MSPs take their noses out of the trough and risk their seats - in a country which so far this century has voted 12 times out of 12 to stay in the Union.

The SNP and SGs already have the majority - so tht at is not the issue. Whether at Holyrood or the Scottish Westminster seats.

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

Gnud said:

PamelaW said:

I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.

I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.

A Sindyref rerun is unlikely to happen unless the SNP and Greens together win a majority of votes in the Holyrood election in 2026, or at least in the next British general election. The main way it could come about earlier is if a majority vote for pro-indy parties in a Holyrood election that's called early. But that would require that SNP MSPs take their noses out of the trough and risk their seats - in a country which so far this century has voted 12 times out of 12 to stay in the Union.

The SNP and SGs already have the majority - so tht at is not the issue. Whether at Holyrood or the Scottish Westminster seats.

Yeah but you've also got Nicola Sturgeon who'd rather be matron of the nation and pad her own nest rather than risk a referendum she might lose.

Carnyx said:

IshmaelZ said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Cookie said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

Also, the rebounded London might look different.

If the working world is moving towards a model of working alone on some days, working together on other days, there won't be the same need to pour millions of workers into London every day. But there will still be a need for a hub where remote workers can do all the stuff that workers do when they congregate.

London is still fantastically well configured for that- all the lines of communication pass through it, in a way that doesn't really work for anywhere else. And if a couple of days in the Big Smoke, pressing the flesh, becomes the norm... the market for all the fun stuff London has to offer looks quite promising. More so than at the moment, because working in London full-time dulls the senses as to what's on offer.

It is, however, ridiculously peripheral. It's tucked away right down there in the bottom corner of the country.

Londoners have always had a mysterious belief that London was somehow really easy for everyone else to get to - but everywhere else was somehow far too difficult for Londoners to get to. That may change, if London breathes out for a bit.

The places I’ve always found ridiculously inaccessible are East Surrey and Kent.

There just isn’t a decent road to them, largely because they’re next to London and all the roads there are a bit shit.

Plus there are almost no direct trains, or even changes at the same station. Again, because of London.

I remember some yeats ago complaining that HS2 wasn't linked to HS1 in any useful way - ie no prospect of you, me or anyone else north of Islington being able to take a direct train to somewhere civilised like Avignon without having to get out in London and walk between stations with your luggage, or take the Tube ditto, and I was sneered at here for being so demanding ...

Slouching towards St Pancras...

Indeed. Where the likes of Tess of the d'Urbervilles and Jude the Obscure were born.

I love it actually - and pay mental homage to Hardy when I am there - but not changing trains unnecessarily.

Alistair said:

Aye, aye, Hammersmith & Fulham has burst onto the scene with Covid cases.

IanB2 said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.

https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk

That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.

It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.

The Ledbury might be gone?! Wow

I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....

Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse

Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?

It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.

It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soon

The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London

Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead

So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?

For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse

London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time

From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.

JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.

So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air

It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or Manchester

They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on

I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked

What is striking right now are the states of the housing market and the labour market.

The pandemic has forced (or enabled) a lot of people to reassess their priorities, and there is no doubt that the virtues of a cheaper but quieter life away from the ‘rat-race’ of the city has escalated massively, particularly for those in middle age who are already halfway up the housing ladder and able to contemplate cashing in their property price gains.

The state of the estate agents’ windows, out here in the beautiful but remote wilds, now only able to be filled by displaying properties already sold (in some cases without even a viewing) speaks volumes.

I hear from New York that the exodus from that particularly urban environment has been more dramatic still.

So a lot of people have exited the Labour market altogether and others are hanging in there, relying on WFA and WFH becoming permanent changes.

I predicted peak London back in the very early days of the pandemic, and stick by my view.