Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com
Options
Comments
-
Regarding the Manchester trams: Metrolink warning of 'severe' delays as around a fifth of staff are isolating.
Apparently this is going to get a lot worse, and possibly keep commuters/the workers at home as it will spread to the trains and peasant wagons buses.
This is why we've told staff to keep working from home until mid September, the nightmare scenario we had mapped out is you finish work at 7pm and there's no way for you to get back home that night.0 -
Slightly fewer folk around the Toon today. Proportion of mask wearers on public transport down too.
The very cautious at home due to our booming figures?
One person's anecdote and sketchy thought.0 -
With the advent of the ascendency of Germ Theory, the development of vaccinations, and the discovery of antibiotics, the West believed it could 'win the war' with infectious diseases. We should have recognized that this was a mirage at least 20-30 years ago, but the penny is, at last, beginning to drop, I think.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
Generally don't do single threads on voting intention polling this far out from an election. The best test of political mood is in the leader ratings.FrancisUrquhart said:No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
1 -
Any intentions of a thread header discussing why Starmer is so far behind Boris in gross leader ratings? And whether that can be turned around?MikeSmithson said:
Generally don't do single threads on voting intention polling this far out from an election. The best test of political mood is in the leader ratings.FrancisUrquhart said:No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
Could be interesting and as you and Ben at IPSOS MORI have said before, gross figures are the most reliable.1 -
Ultimately people will uninstall the app, I get the feeling that once we're "fully" vaccinated the government may look to withdraw it as at that point we do have to learn to live with COVID over the long term and being pinged to isolate by an app just seems like a ridiculous way to live.TheScreamingEagles said:Regarding the Manchester trams: Metrolink warning of 'severe' delays as around a fifth of staff are isolating.
Apparently this is going to get a lot worse, and possibly keep commuters/the workers at home as it will spread to the trains and peasant wagons buses.
This is why we've told staff to keep working from home until mid September, the nightmare scenario we had mapped out is you finish work at 7pm and there's no way for you to get back home that night.1 -
I've been predicting a 2023 general election. Me and OGH are in agreement. I will remember this day forever.
4 -
2019 tested the FTPA to destruction; exactly the time the country needed an exception to its provisions it couldn't be done. It needs to go. The PM discretion is not great but better than the alternatives. I wouldn't entirely rule out Boris going for 2022 and not 2023, if he can find a plausible reason and thinks he can win. Time may not be on his side.Andy_JS said:
In theory I agree, but the situation in 2019 was excruciating when there was total stalemate in the Commons because of the FTPA.PamelaW said:I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.
I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.
1 -
Is it possible there is something about human race today, how we have used vaccines and antibiotics for a while now, how we live today and travel the globe so easily, how our population grows, how the planet is polluted, that rather than one off, the emergence of this could be the first of many pandemics in the coming period, some even more virulent and deadly?TimT said:
With the advent of the ascendency of Germ Theory, the development of vaccinations, and the discovery of antibiotics, the West believed it could 'win the war' with infectious diseases. We should have recognized that this was a mirage at least 20-30 years ago, but the penny is, at last, beginning to drop, I think.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
That it’s not a one off, ourselves and the world today has become susceptible to it. Possibly?
0 -
I don't think the situation is that stark, although it could yet become so if the situation with respect to antibiotic resistance continues to deteriorate.TimT said:
With the advent of the ascendency of Germ Theory, the development of vaccinations, and the discovery of antibiotics, the West believed it could 'win the war' with infectious diseases. We should have recognized that this was a mirage at least 20-30 years ago, but the penny is, at last, beginning to drop, I think.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The other pressing problem in the UK is the lack of capacity in the healthcare system, but as with all other problems that we can agree need fixing and will cost lots of money to put right, everyone thinks that it is everyone else's job but theirs to pay to do it. Plus ça change.1 -
Under 50 and double vaxxed chances of you catching COVID and ending up with covid is vanishingly small.Maffew said:Well this is interesting on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital:
Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:
73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834
Not so good if you are an oldie. Although hard to tell as obviously figures distorted by unvaccinated (and 25th June case numbers were still very low).0 -
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually0 -
One positive at the moment, reinfection is incredibly rare (even with variants) and of the confirmed cases, all but a tiny number have been very mild.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually1 -
O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk0 -
Okay thanks for the answers. 🙂.HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
So what other moderate positions to campaign on to shape policy are discussed at your “moderate group” meetings?
0 -
I suspect we'll have Starmer threads aplenty soon. Labour left can do nothing about the government, and every time they try they look more foolish still. Admittedly they are safely embedded and just need to sit and wait, but I don't think that's their mentality. My guess is that they'll attack their own tails.Philip_Thompson said:
Any intentions of a thread header discussing why Starmer is so far behind Boris in gross leader ratings? And whether that can be turned around?MikeSmithson said:
Generally don't do single threads on voting intention polling this far out from an election. The best test of political mood is in the leader ratings.FrancisUrquhart said:No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
Could be interesting and as you and Ben at IPSOS MORI have said before, gross figures are the most reliable.0 -
"London is a shadow of its former self – our cities are being left to die
When flash floods left the much of capital under water this week, it felt like an omen
Tanya Gold" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2021/07/15/london-shadow-former-self-cities-left-die/0 -
Abolish drawing and quartering?gealbhan said:
Okay thanks for the answers. 🙂.HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
So what other moderate positions to campaign on to shape policy are discussed at your “moderate group” meetings?2 -
I don't agree. Sooner or later, the virus will have nowhere to go. My money's on sooner.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually
One of the year 4 classes at my daughter's school has 12 positives out of 30. There are at least another five who have had positives in the past. That's one cohort it's going to have trouble sweeping through a second time.1 -
The Sun shows us "Benidorm Bunters" tattooed on one of his buttocks, but it's revealing that so few newspapers mention the "Brexit Forevver, 2016" he's got inked on the other one.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.1 -
There are tons of factors. Jared Diamonds book Guns, Germs, and Steel has the concept that as human population density increases, so the type of disease we are afflicted by evolves.gealbhan said:
Is it possible there is something about human race today, how we have used vaccines and antibiotics for a while now, how we live today and travel the globe so easily, how our population grows, how the planet is polluted, that rather than one off, the emergence of this could be the first of many pandemics in the coming period, some even more virulent and deadly?TimT said:
With the advent of the ascendency of Germ Theory, the development of vaccinations, and the discovery of antibiotics, the West believed it could 'win the war' with infectious diseases. We should have recognized that this was a mirage at least 20-30 years ago, but the penny is, at last, beginning to drop, I think.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
That it’s not a one off, ourselves and the world today has become susceptible to it. Possibly?
So in sparse populations, disease is essentially parasites, which are capable of surviving outside of any one given host species (in another species, or in the soil or water) while between hosts of that species.
As populations get denser with the advent of cities (and those with poor sanitation) then disease become bacteriological.
And more denser, viral disease take off.
But other factors play a role, too. Our more connected world, our encroachment into wildlife habitats, our diminishment of wildlife species diversity in those remaining wildlife ecologies - all play into more rapid evolution of zoonotic diseases2 -
Cope
0 -
Would be interesting also to know behaviour and behaviour change. Are a lot of the two jabbed still self imposing restrictions on themselves?Maffew said:Well this is interesting on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital:
Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:
73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834
A lot of 40+ never showed virus any respect in first place and carried on sociably as usual, jabbing made no difference to them, does this behaviour group show up more greatly in hospitalised stats you reeled off?1 -
I pray you are rightCookie said:
I don't agree. Sooner or later, the virus will have nowhere to go. My money's on sooner.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually
One of the year 4 classes at my daughter's school has 12 positives out of 30. There are at least another five who have had positives in the past. That's one cohort it's going to have trouble sweeping through a second time.
The history of Spanish flu is instructive. It didn't just disappear (as some think) it evolved to become a "normal" flu, tho it had the capacity to mutate further, decades later, and cause further pandemics, albeit smaller than the hideous initial outbreak, which killed 50-100 million in 2 years
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended0 -
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.1 -
UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related1 -
On a different topic, there are literally hundreds of comments chez the Daily Mail today describing the flooding and suffering in Germany as "punishment" for the EU's conduct during Brexit, or joking about it on similar lines. What a truly putrid and decaying culture the entire Brexit process has unleashed for a certain strand of society.1
-
My guess is that it won’t bring life expectancy down. Other factors, better diet, less smoking, the advance of science in healthcare, will probably override the effect of covid.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
With the chap still in it ...TheScreamingEagles said:UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related0 -
I think if we were to junk lockdowns and "let rip" into a fully vaccinated population around 10-20k over 80s would die every year from it which will lower the average life expectancy a bit in the UK.Anabobazina said:
My guess is that it won’t bring life expectancy down. Other factors, better diet, less smoking, the advance of science in healthcare, will probably override the effect of covid.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
People forget that the reason that this virus has been so destructive is that it is a “novel” virus. At some point it stops being novel and most people in the world will be able to fight it off second time around due to exposure through infections or vaccinations. But we will all get it at some point, probably more than once.Leon said:
I pray you are rightCookie said:
I don't agree. Sooner or later, the virus will have nowhere to go. My money's on sooner.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually
One of the year 4 classes at my daughter's school has 12 positives out of 30. There are at least another five who have had positives in the past. That's one cohort it's going to have trouble sweeping through a second time.
The history of Spanish flu is instructive. It didn't just disappear (as some think) it evolved to become a "normal" flu, tho it had the capacity to mutate further, decades later, and cause further pandemics, albeit smaller than the hideous initial outbreak, which killed 50-100 million in 2 years
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended2 -
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?1 -
If international travel continues to be discouraged and states' virus policies diverge and settle down, one possibility over the next few years is an expansion of "country-shopping": those with the means jump ship to where they think they'll be safer and better positioned and stay put.1
-
Meanwhile there's a Subway and McDonald's opening in Hexham.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
Levelling up on track.3 -
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?1 -
And the second time it will be less bad, by the third time it's just a cold. The key is that you want as many people vaccinated as possible before they get it for the first time, especially over 50s. That doesn't mean we will eliminate all COVID deaths, it means we will reduce the severity of it to a degree that it doesn't topple healthcare provision.DougSeal said:
People forget that the reason that this virus has been so destructive is that it is a “novel” virus. At some point it stops being novel and most people in the world will be able to fight it off second time around due to exposure through infections or vaccinations. But we will all get it at some point, probably more than once.Leon said:
I pray you are rightCookie said:
I don't agree. Sooner or later, the virus will have nowhere to go. My money's on sooner.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually
One of the year 4 classes at my daughter's school has 12 positives out of 30. There are at least another five who have had positives in the past. That's one cohort it's going to have trouble sweeping through a second time.
The history of Spanish flu is instructive. It didn't just disappear (as some think) it evolved to become a "normal" flu, tho it had the capacity to mutate further, decades later, and cause further pandemics, albeit smaller than the hideous initial outbreak, which killed 50-100 million in 2 years
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended4 -
Yes. We've been thinking about this for months. Trouble is your roots: family and friends. If it wasn't for that I'd be out for sure.Gnud said:If international travel continues to be discouraged and states' virus policies diverge and settle down, one possibility over the next few years is an expansion of "country-shopping": those with the means jump ship to where they think they'll be safer and better positioned and stay put.
0 -
We truly live in a time of portents and miracles.dixiedean said:
Meanwhile there's a Subway and McDonald's opening in Hexham.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
Levelling up on track.1 -
How many of those would fall into the category of 'people who would have died that year anyway'?MaxPB said:
I think if we were to junk lockdowns and "let rip" into a fully vaccinated population around 10-20k over 80s would die every year from it which will lower the average life expectancy a bit in the UK.Anabobazina said:
My guess is that it won’t bring life expectancy down. Other factors, better diet, less smoking, the advance of science in healthcare, will probably override the effect of covid.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
ONS statistics show no decline in mean life expectancy. I'm not sure how to include an image in a post but the moving 3- or 4-year average death rate (age-adjusted per 100,000) has been flat since ~2010. Before then it was falling slowly, i.e. Brits. were living a bit longer with every passing year.pigeon said:
I don't think the situation is that stark, although it could yet become so if the situation with respect to antibiotic resistance continues to deteriorate.TimT said:
With the advent of the ascendency of Germ Theory, the development of vaccinations, and the discovery of antibiotics, the West believed it could 'win the war' with infectious diseases. We should have recognized that this was a mirage at least 20-30 years ago, but the penny is, at last, beginning to drop, I think.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The other pressing problem in the UK is the lack of capacity in the healthcare system, but as with all other problems that we can agree need fixing and will cost lots of money to put right, everyone thinks that it is everyone else's job but theirs to pay to do it. Plus ça change.
The death rate jumps around from winter to winter, depending on how bad respiratory viruses are that season. 2018-19 was noticeably low; 2019-20 and 2020-21 were higher than the average for the decade.
We have cheap purposed drugs, as Drs. Kory or Lawrie, Prof McCullough or other medical experts would gladly tell you. Their clinical experience in using them to prevent hospitalisation and death began in spring 2020 and continues. It's not my fault that the pharma industry values profits over lives and that YT/FB/Twitter have started censoring free debate, also the UK government has been doing the same in orders to OFCOM.
Weinstein suggested in an interview that ivermectin could eradicate the virus. Given that it's safe, unlike the vaccines, I wouldn't object to taking a short course of it. Saves the NHS £ billions. But the lost $$ & ££ displease pharma boards and shareholders, who now determine a country's medical policy, so it won't happen.0 -
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)0 -
I'll try and stay positive, but I fear the worst for London, and for all big western citiesRichard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
Two cheeks of the same arse....Gnud said:
The Sun shows us "Benidorm Bunters" tattooed on one of his buttocks, but it's revealing that so few newspapers mention the "Brexit Forevver, 2016" he's got inked on the other one.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.3 -
In the long run, there are only two ways you are going to cover the spiralling cost of replacing old people's knackered joints and wiping their arses when they become demented:gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
1. Get the elderly (directly, and/or via taxation of their estates after they die) to cover it
2. Get the young to foot the bill
No prizes for guessing who's paying.1 -
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*0 -
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?1 -
I'm a great fan of Sheekey's - it's just so good for after the theatre; there's really nowhere else like it in London that opens late enough. True, it is pricey, but to leave the theatre, walk a couple of minutes, and then be welcomed into that lovely space is very agreeable. It's true that some of the dishes are nothing special, but if you choose well, it's great.Omnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)0 -
Every time I have been into town these last few weeks I’ve enjoyed it and been pleasantly surprised by how lively it is. Obviously though we need more people in in September. The school holidays are always very quiet anyway.0
-
How can he say he foresaw the outcome if he doesn’t predict every possible outcome?Nigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
It's not novel. That's the point that Martin made in his interview with Fuellmich.MaxPB said:
And the second time it will be less bad, by the third time it's just a cold. The key is that you want as many people vaccinated as possible before they get it for the first time, especially over 50s. That doesn't mean we will eliminate all COVID deaths, it means we will reduce the severity of it to a degree that it doesn't topple healthcare provision.DougSeal said:
People forget that the reason that this virus has been so destructive is that it is a “novel” virus. At some point it stops being novel and most people in the world will be able to fight it off second time around due to exposure through infections or vaccinations. But we will all get it at some point, probably more than once.Leon said:
I pray you are rightCookie said:
I don't agree. Sooner or later, the virus will have nowhere to go. My money's on sooner.Leon said:
Yes, agreed. Unless we get lucky and the virus mutates into a cold, it will be with us and bothering us for a long long time.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
When I say it will be affecting us into 2022 or 2023 I mean seriously bruising our lives - travel will be difficult or pricey, if not impossible in places. Poorer unvaxed countries will have further waves for months The fucking virus will haunt our TV news for the foreseeable.
And yes, that means a massive reset of expectations. In all ways. Life is going to be crimped and diminished - and shortened for some - though there will probably be upsides. Eventually
One of the year 4 classes at my daughter's school has 12 positives out of 30. There are at least another five who have had positives in the past. That's one cohort it's going to have trouble sweeping through a second time.
The history of Spanish flu is instructive. It didn't just disappear (as some think) it evolved to become a "normal" flu, tho it had the capacity to mutate further, decades later, and cause further pandemics, albeit smaller than the hideous initial outbreak, which killed 50-100 million in 2 years
https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended
It's called SARS-CoV-2. The one that caused a lot of deaths in 2002-04, with a fatality rate of I think *10%*, was SARS-CoV-*1*. The related MERS I think had a fatality rate of *50%*... aargh.
Smallpox in the 19th.C had a fatality rate of 70% in children. I think 1853 is the only time in UK history that for a while a vaccine was made mandatory. Never again, especially not for a fatality rate lower than Hong Kong (1968) or Asian (1957) flu. We decided after WW2 that forced medication was a breach of a person's human rights.
0 -
In future Wembley Way will have to be tickets and residents only all day on matchdays, it cant be an all day drinking fan park bordering the stadium for an 8pm kick off which the all day drinkers are desperate to attend.TheScreamingEagles said:UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related2 -
I remember when Bentleys was owned by Oscar Owide. It was…different…to how I understand it is now.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*0 -
I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.1 -
Mathematicians believe they are a step closer to defining infinities.ydoethur said:
How can he say he foresaw the outcome if he doesn’t predict every possible outcome?Nigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-many-numbers-exist-infinity-proof-moves-math-closer-to-an-answer-20210715/
If they come across @Leon, they are likely to despair.1 -
That's basically flu levels isn't it?MaxPB said:
I think if we were to junk lockdowns and "let rip" into a fully vaccinated population around 10-20k over 80s would die every year from it which will lower the average life expectancy a bit in the UK.Anabobazina said:
My guess is that it won’t bring life expectancy down. Other factors, better diet, less smoking, the advance of science in healthcare, will probably override the effect of covid.MaxPB said:
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
I like Smiths in Wapping, never had a bad meal there.Omnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)0 -
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time0 -
When I went to the Olympics there was a ring of a steel around the stadium, you couldn't get within a mile of it without a ticket.noneoftheabove said:
In future Wembley Way will have to be tickets and residents only all day on matchdays, it cant be an all day drinking fan park bordering the stadium for an 8pm kick off which the all day drinkers are desperate to attend.TheScreamingEagles said:UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related
Did the Met really think Sunday's match required less effort than the Olympics?
Dick needs to go.1 -
Actually most middle aged workers will inherit far more from their elderly parents houses if they do not have to sell them to fund at home care than they ever will pay in NI. Hence May's policy was so unpopular, in fact more unpopular with the 45 to 65s who would be most affected than the over 65s who it would not impact until they died.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
If you go into residential care you already have to sell your house to pay for it anyway0 -
Any thoughts/reviews on the London Steakhouse?Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
Thanks for the suggestion of Ran&A - I'll try them. I never liked Atlantic Bar - too much of a braying shed.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
There was some place on Haymarket (I think) that was a really simple cooker of fish (and very good at is), but the prices were about 10x what they should have been.0 -
I dont think something ending up pretty much the same as it was before exists in Leon world, it either has to be the best thing ever, or the worst, generally the latter.Nigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.1 -
It's fairly busy in the central areas like Covent Garden and Soho, but step away from there and it soon gets pretty dire.Anabobazina said:Every time I have been into town these last few weeks I’ve enjoyed it and been pleasantly surprised by how lively it is. Obviously though we need more people in in September. The school holidays are always very quiet anyway.
0 -
No, I've never been there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Any thoughts/reviews on the London Steakhouse?Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
I think you underestimate how many assetless people there areHYUFD said:
Actually most middle aged workers will inherit far more from their elderly parents houses if they do not have to sell them to fund at home care than they ever will pay in NI. Hence May's policy was so unpopular, in fact more unpopular with the 45 to 65s who would be most affected than the over 65s who it would not impact until they died.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
If you go into residential care you already have to sell your house to pay for it anyway2 -
JohnO and I are going there next month for our regular working man's lunch.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I've never been there.TheScreamingEagles said:
Any thoughts/reviews on the London Steakhouse?Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?1 -
The boom was 1985-2019 (1985 was the nadir of population size, too).dixiedean said:
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.
But yes, all true
The cycles of life. At least I lived here when it was the best city on earth. Truly swaggering. Someone else will enjoy its revival in about 15-20 years0 -
We need another Blessed Margaret to restore London to it's glory days?dixiedean said:
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.
0 -
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.0 -
The problem with May's proposal was that it was misreported and then misrepresented by people opposed to the government. I struggle to see any solution which isn't cross-party.HYUFD said:
Actually most middle aged workers will inherit far more from their elderly parents houses if they do not have to sell them to fund at home care than they ever will pay in NI. Hence May's policy was so unpopular, in fact more unpopular with the 45 to 65s who would be most affected than the over 65s who it would not impact until they died.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
If you go into residential care you already have to sell your house to pay for it anyway3 -
From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.
So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air0 -
I LOVE the beach shack cafe stuff. The Company Shed in Mersea is great for that, likewise the Mersea Oyster Caff next doorBenpointer said:
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.0 -
Olympic stadium or Wembley during the Olympics? Olympic stadium is much easier to police. I did go to Wembley for the Olympics but can't recall how it was set up.TheScreamingEagles said:
When I went to the Olympics there was a ring of a steel around the stadium, you couldn't get within a mile of it without a ticket.noneoftheabove said:
In future Wembley Way will have to be tickets and residents only all day on matchdays, it cant be an all day drinking fan park bordering the stadium for an 8pm kick off which the all day drinkers are desperate to attend.TheScreamingEagles said:UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related
Did the Met really think Sunday's match required less effort than the Olympics?
Dick needs to go.
Another side note, if we had the flash floods that hit London on Tuesday night on Sunday evening, we could have been talking about hundreds of deaths at Wembley, there was no way to escape the crowds. Obviously such floods are very rare, not really seen anything like it here before, but stadiums should have some ability to allow crowds to cope with extreme weather events.0 -
Shanghai looks to be the coming global city, China's NYC or Londondixiedean said:
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.0 -
My double jabbed 33 year old son (second jab in May) managed to catch it last week, and has had a couple of days of fever, sweats and severe lethargy. On day three he said that he felt as if he'd 'got his brain back' and had been in another place. Thankfully he does not appear to have passed it on to his double jabbed parents, or single jabbed sister, all of whom shared a smallish room with him for an hour the evening before he tested positive. Similarly, his double jabbed wife continues to test negative.FrancisUrquhart said:
Under 50 and double vaxxed chances of you catching COVID and ending up with covid is vanishingly small.Maffew said:Well this is interesting on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital:
Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:
73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834
Not so good if you are an oldie. Although hard to tell as obviously figures distorted by unvaccinated (and 25th June case numbers were still very low).0 -
On the subject of restaurants, we're at the Sadler's Wells in early September, any recommendations nearby? We like Moro but it might be nice to try somewhere else.0
-
Wasn't there a piece on the front of either the Times or the Telegraph recently, suggesting that she wanted to continue and was after a new contract?TheScreamingEagles said:
When I went to the Olympics there was a ring of a steel around the stadium, you couldn't get within a mile of it without a ticket.noneoftheabove said:
In future Wembley Way will have to be tickets and residents only all day on matchdays, it cant be an all day drinking fan park bordering the stadium for an 8pm kick off which the all day drinkers are desperate to attend.TheScreamingEagles said:UEFA need to make sure England play their next six matches behind closed doors.
‘A guy hijacked my wheelchair to try to get into Wembley’ – a disabled fan’s nightmare at the Euro 2020 final
https://theathletic.com/2708518/2021/07/15/a-guy-hijacked-my-wheelchair-to-try-to-get-into-wembley-a-disabled-fans-nightmare-at-the-euro-2020-final/?article_source=related
Did the Met really think Sunday's match required less effort than the Olympics?
Dick needs to go.
I bet she gets it.0 -
Shanghai is a fantastic and fascinating city, but Shanghai can no more be a global city than Berlin could in 1937. The government is too malignantHYUFD said:
Shanghai looks to be coming global city, China's NYC or Londondixiedean said:
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.1 -
75% of over 65s now own their own homes, so that is a lot of middle aged children who will inherit in a decade or twoping said:
I think you underestimate how many assetless people there areHYUFD said:
Actually most middle aged workers will inherit far more from their elderly parents houses if they do not have to sell them to fund at home care than they ever will pay in NI. Hence May's policy was so unpopular, in fact more unpopular with the 45 to 65s who would be most affected than the over 65s who it would not impact until they died.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
If you go into residential care you already have to sell your house to pay for it anyway0 -
Given your username it seems remiss not to point out your near namesake, Omnino and its sister Omnino Brazilian BBQ are very much worth visits if they return if you also enjoy steak.Omnium said:
Thanks for the suggestion of Ran&A - I'll try them. I never liked Atlantic Bar - too much of a braying shed.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
There was some place on Haymarket (I think) that was a really simple cooker of fish (and very good at is), but the prices were about 10x what they should have been.0 -
What's the betting that in 20 years time we will have ended up with a care solution similar to May's and trading arrangements with EU that are similar to May's. The world's worst saleswoman.1
-
I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.ping said:
I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.
I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.
(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).1 -
This is why language is so important.TOPPING said:
I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
Only 7-12% of the population admit to overt racism. A further 10-15% have some prejudiced attitudes. So that gets you to about a quarter of the population.
That's far better than even 20 years ago, but abuse on social media is worse than it was 20 years - because of anonymity, the ease of targeting, and the fact the worst examples are so enthusiastically shared - so it's amplified. Further, the fact it's relatively rare in the real world, now, makes the frosty looks or "faces" you get now feel so much more hurtful.
So, basically, it should have gone entirely by now, but hasn't, and the worst examples now either stand-out starkly or have a great platform for distribution. That makes it feel endemic.
That's different to the UK being institutionally racist, which to me would suggest something like the Jim Crow laws, apartheid or the situation before the Race Equality Act, or structurally racist, which would suggest that some of the structures of the UK - the Union, the flag, its symbols, monarchy, and parliamentary system - need to come down first.
That's the trap people fall into; they inadvertently row in behind some causes of the radical Left.3 -
Ok thanks - we're venturing into Essex in September for a visit to the Beth Chatto gardens so Mersea's not far from there.Leon said:
I LOVE the beach shack cafe stuff. The Company Shed in Mersea is great for that, likewise the Mersea Oyster Caff next doorBenpointer said:
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.
Edit: need to fine a nice hotel in that area actually as we'll probably do the RHS garden at Hyde Hall too and make a weekend of it.0 -
It is possible that the flagpole cities like London and NYC will do OK, as they are SO big and prestigious, people will still want to live and work there. If that happens, it is the 2nd order cities that will suffer much more. Chicago, say, or ManchesterHYUFD said:
From September I expect most people will be working back in the office at least 3 days a week, with maybe the other 2 still WFH.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
JP Morgan and Goldmans for example have already ordered their workers back into the office
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-goldman-call-time-on-work-from-home-their-rivals-are-ready-to-pounce-11625563800.
So I expect the big global cities like NYC and London to gradually rebound, though more workers will continue to move out to the outer suburbs and rural areas and bigger houses there and take advantage of the bigger space and mix of city life when they want it but a home life with more green space and fresh air
They don't have the seductions of a New York or a London, but will have many of the nasty issues - crime, depopulation, and so on
I am particularly pessimistic about American cities. They are fucked1 -
Would probably require the UK to return to the single market or at least London to retain the financial services passport for it to return to the late Thatcher, Blair days when it was at its postwar height.GIN1138 said:
We need another Blessed Margaret to restore London to it's glory days?dixiedean said:
London's had a good run. 1930-80 decline.Leon said:
It has clearly escaped your attention that I am prone to mood swings. I am also prone to wishful thinking. I want London to roar back to life (likewise Paris, NYC, and so on), and yet if I am honest with myself I am not sure how it happens, logically. Certainly not soonNigelb said:
It was only a couple of days ago you were telling us you sensed it roaring back.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
The world has changed for good. Working From Home is not going away. If you can or must Work From Home you will work somewhere spacious and green, maybe sunny and warm. That ain't London
Meanwhile so many of the other things that made London life seductive - restaurants, shops, galleries, opera houses, everything, the whole glittering cavalcade, are either damaged, diminished or dead
So why live in London, or NYC? As crime spirals?
For several decades the great western cities enjoyed power and wealth and ever increasing prestige (and populations). That epoch is over. The process is flung into reverse
London will likely rebound in time. But it will take a long time
1980-2020 boom.
These things go in cycles. Somebody else's turn.
We are now in a less fiscally conservative, post single market age in the UK with Boris and indeed Starmer at present.
That helps the Red Wall with more spending and less free movement but it does not help London0 -
Overpriced and average imo. Just about fine if you get a meal deal instead of a la carte, but far better alternatives available.TheScreamingEagles said:
Any thoughts/reviews on the London Steakhouse?Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, Sola Soho is new(ish), and superb. So it's not all doom and gloom.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?0 -
Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh0
-
School breaking up will unequivocally help. The link between schools being open and cases is pretty clear unless there has been a freakish repeated coincidence between timing of school holidays and case numbers changing.londonpubman said:
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!2 -
I love The Spectator. I'd say 75% of its issues are superb, with articles well-worth reading.rcs1000 said:
That The Spectator is a shadow of its old self?FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
I disagree with some articles, and occasionally Toby Young, Rod Liddle, Nick Cohen and Charles Moore go a bit off the wall, but at other times they nail the zeitgeist - and they have lots of moderate journalists too.
It's refreshing and provides well-articulated (and necessary) views you don't get elsewhere.1 -
It's not a beauty spot. Mersea is a working port with grimy warehouses and some tacky new builds. And yet I love it. The flat crappiness and the glittering estuary, and a lobster soup with creme fraiche. YumBenpointer said:
Ok thanks - we're venturing into Essex in September for a visit to the Beth Chatto gardens so Mersea's not far from there.Leon said:
I LOVE the beach shack cafe stuff. The Company Shed in Mersea is great for that, likewise the Mersea Oyster Caff next doorBenpointer said:
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.
Edit: need to fine a nice hotel in that area actually as we'll probably do the RHS garden at Hyde Hall too and make a weekend of it.1 -
Ok thanks - forewarned etc...Leon said:
It's not a beauty spot. Mersea is a working port with grimy warehouses and some tacky new builds. And yet I love it. The flat crappiness and the glittering estuary, and a lobster soup with creme fraiche. YumBenpointer said:
Ok thanks - we're venturing into Essex in September for a visit to the Beth Chatto gardens so Mersea's not far from there.Leon said:
I LOVE the beach shack cafe stuff. The Company Shed in Mersea is great for that, likewise the Mersea Oyster Caff next doorBenpointer said:
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.
Edit: need to fine a nice hotel in that area actually as we'll probably do the RHS garden at Hyde Hall too and make a weekend of it.0 -
0
-
Good hotels are rare as hen's fangs around thereBenpointer said:
Ok thanks - we're venturing into Essex in September for a visit to the Beth Chatto gardens so Mersea's not far from there.Leon said:
I LOVE the beach shack cafe stuff. The Company Shed in Mersea is great for that, likewise the Mersea Oyster Caff next doorBenpointer said:
We had a fantastic meal in the Oystermen pre-Covid but it's definitely a food first ambience 2nd experience - which suited us.Leon said:
There are still plenty of good fish restaurants! Bentley's is excellent, as is Scott's. OK they are costly but if you want to splurgeOmnium said:
Sheekeys just traded on its history. You'd always enjoy it but it was very expensive and there are only so many pounds you can add for opening an oyster and opening Champagne.Leon said:
The Ledbury might be gone?! WowRichard_Nabavi said:
That's a pity, it was good. We had a very select PB Tory (as I was then!) dinner there some years ago. That was the evening at the end of which @JohnO famously fell asleep on the train and woke up in Bournemouth or somewhere.Andy_JS said:O/T
Don't believe this. It looks like one of my favourite restaurants in London, The Baltic in Southwark, has closed permanently.
https://www.balticrestaurant.co.uk
It's certainly not the only casualty. It's not clear if The Ledbury will ever re-open - it was one of the top two or three restaurants in London.
I was never a massive fan but it had such a stellar reputation....
Another victim is the Atlantic Bar at Sheekeys, which was a blissful place to guzzle oysters in fine style and yet at reasonable prices. They've now folded it into the main restaurant which is twice as pricey, and the food is somehow worse
Is London collapsing? Is it worth staying?
I genuinely don't know a good fish restaurant in London now though. (Apart from Japanese where there are many). Wheelers is just ok. (Just had a quick check about Sweetings - not that you'd have said they were good, but a fun place. Seems offline)
Randall & Aubin is very nice in Soho. Wright Bros can be pretty fine (if they have reopened?)
I've heard great things of the Oystermen in WC2
As for Sheekeys, that's kinda my point. The main restaurant was way too expensive, and the food was average. The Atlantic Bar was more fun, much cheaper, with great oysters, and lovely fish stews etc
Now gone. *sad face*
Out of London we had one of the best ever fish meals last week at the Crab House Cafe, Weymouth. They grow and harvest their own oysters from the Chesil Beach lagoon which is just in front of the cafe. Superb oysters of course but the whole meal was truly outstanding.
Again, be prepared: it's beach shack cafe ambience.
Edit: need to fine a nice hotel in that area actually as we'll probably do the RHS garden at Hyde Hall too and make a weekend of it.
The best and nearest is maybe a place we have discussed on here. The Mistley Thorn
Really excellent food.
http://www.mistleythorn.co.uk/
Edit: don't go by their online menu, which looks dull. They have half a dozen daily specials which are generally delicious0 -
The best solution proposed by a politician or anyone close to political power. The attacks were shameful even if it was a GE.YBarddCwsc said:
I was cheering May's social care proposals on pb.com.ping said:
I think I was about the only person in the country (well, I’m sure there were a few council finance bods) who was cheering on May’s proposals.gealbhan said:
“The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.”HYUFD said:
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
Unpopular sure, especially if attacked mercilessly by rival party’s and media who aren’t actually proposing a policy.
But surely it is the moderate way forward. A burgeoning social care bill to be paid for by NI which is tax, by workers struggling to afford homes, whilst those with the treasure refuse to spend it on their care and health needs, you are actually saying is the fairer and more moderate position going forward.
What can we agree on? The country had a problem? None of the parts currently have much stated policy for dealing with it, let alone what the moderate and fair policy is?
Hyufd’s position on this is, sadly, bang in line with public opinion and, well, completely morally indefensible.
I remember being furiously attacked by posters on the left & the right.
(It was the only good thing May came up with, although she presented it with her characteristic clumsiness).0 -
They should probably get themselves vaccinated then.Pulpstar said:Unvaccinated over 50s in the UK are fucked right now tbh
3 -
South African police minister shows off looted ammunition and says that people are preparing for war:
https://twitter.com/pine_tree_riots/status/14156823489857167360
This discussion has been closed.