Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com
Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com
I have just bet at 3.6 on Betfair that 2023 will be the year of the next general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act is being replaced by a new measure that puts the control of the next election date into the hands of the prime minister
Comments
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FPTCarnyx said:
Never thought of white wine. Must try that.Northern_Al said:
Agree. My risotto includes white wine as part of the stock, parmesan, chicken, king prawns, bacon. So not that cheap, really. But then I'm one of the metropolitan elite (though we do use the disembowelled chicken to make stock for soup).malcolmg said:
Carnyx, always Arborio and slowly add broth till absorbed and it turns creamy. Add some grated parmesan at the end.Carnyx said:
Might I ask, what rice do you use?malcolmg said:
Also easy to make a rubbery mess of it as well, you have to get it just at the correct consistency or it is horrible.TOPPING said:
Yeah risotto is one of the easier things to cook.rcs1000 said:
As long as your kids are small, you can have roast chicken on day one, chicken risotto on day two, and soup on day three (or for lunch).Leon said:
I don’t know why you’d lie about this but ‘a few days of family meals’ from one £2.50 chicken is ridiculousPhilip_Thompson said:
Yes I can. I don't know why you think I'd lie about that.Leon said:
You can get a ‘few days of family meals’ from one £2.50 chicken?! Impressive. Also unbelievablePhilip_Thompson said:
I don't see why chicken is an issue.FrancisUrquhart said:Listening to Dimbleby Jnr talk about his food report. One thing that stuck out was basically him saying high quality meat such a steak and roast chicken is fine, but need to cut right down on processed cheap meat based products from our diets.
This highlights the crux of the problem.
I, as much of PB I would think, can and probably already do this. £6-7 for a decent steak is fine for my tea, but then we know that the richer you are now the less likely you are to be massive overweight, eat better etc.
Those on low income are never paying £30-40 for one family meal of decent steak or a good quality whole chicken, hence why its chicken nug nugs etc.
I don't know how you square that circle.
I can get a whole chicken from Tesco for £2.50, less than the cost of a single Happy Meal, and get a few days worth of meals from that chicken for the whole family.
Again it comes more down to the willingness, desire, inclination and ability to cook than it does the affordability.
But even if you just get one family meal from a whole chicken, its just as cheap as buying crap food and far cheaper than buying a McDonalds or other takeaways.
Let’s say a family is four hungry mouths. They will devour an entire roast chicken in one sitting, easily. And they might still be hungry
You’re then left with a few bones which you could boil down for stock (with vegetables) and make a HYUFDy hot broth which could furnish lunch I guess (with bread). That’s it
A wild mushroom risotto is one of my favourites to cook. Soak dried wild mushrooms. After frying the onions until soft, add chopped chestnut mushrooms and the drained/squeezed/chopped wild mushrooms (reserver the liquor), season to taste. Once the mushrooms are cooked add the risotto rice, stir and add a good glassful of white wine and reduce, then slowly add the reserved mushroom liquor. Finish with a nob of butter, grated parmesan and chopped parsley.3 -
Seems a reasonable conjecture...0
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Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.12 -
48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.0
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50,000 cases and 63 deaths is not optimal.
I know there are logical reasons for calm serenity, in the face of these stats, but Ouch0 -
Today cases...
0 -
No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?0
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I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.0
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It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
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"Looking back there’s a tendency for parliaments that run their full course to end up with a change of government as we saw at GE1997 and GE2010."
Yes but I think the causation goes the other way - it's because Major and Brown were so disastrously unpopular that they held on to the last minute, hoping something would turn up.
The political genius that was Tony Blair ensured that it didn't, the political mediocrity that was David Cameron meant that it almost did.1 -
FTPA was and remains nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
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I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
0 -
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
I don't always agree with Mike but he has called this absolutely right.
PMs don't like to go beyond 4 years unless they have to because of the risk of adverse developments in the 5th year.
Also the boundary changes will/should be in place by then, whether they actually help CON remains to be seen but the current expectation is that they will.3 -
we can but hopeFrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
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TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
0 -
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.1 -
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.3 -
The PM and government have so much power over parliament now, you may as well abolish it. At least the FTPA reined back a little bit of the PM power. I can't see how it can be classed as nonsense, it is a perfectly relevant system used in the majority of countries around the world.Sweeney74 said:
FTPA was and remains nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
1 -
I do wonder if it might have been wise to break up / go to home schooling for summer holidays early.londonpubman said:
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
No idea what schools are like these days, but in my day the last week was mostly messing about anyway.0 -
Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.2
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Absolutely summer or autumn 2023 once the new boundaries are in is the logical date.0
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I suspect this owes more to Dominic Cummings than to Boris himself. But in any case, even after Boris explained all earlier today, levelling up is little more than a wishlist rather than a detailed policy.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.1 -
Good for Boris, good for the UK, terrible for Labour, and rather encouraging for the LibDems.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.4 -
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.3 -
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.0 -
I forecast a peak of 50k. Given schools break up next week, I'd be very surprised if I'm far out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
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I wonder how much this is to do with Boris seeing his own popularity as being intrinsically linked with Covid. Once it is over will he become Churchill to Starmer's Atlee?Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
That The Spectator is a shadow of its old self?FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debateOnlyLivingBoy said:
If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.
As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.4 -
It's a fascinating thought experiment to consider what would have happened had May not gone for an early GE in 2017, but had instead stuck to the course mandated by the FTPA - which would have meant a GE in spring of 2020...londonpubman said:I don't always agree with Mike but he has called this absolutely right.
PMs don't like to go beyond 4 years unless they have to because of the risk of adverse developments in the 5th year.
Also the boundary changes will/should be in place by then, whether they actually help CON remains to be seen but the current expectation is that they will.1 -
Yes I suspect people will indeed make the call for themselves. Which is as it should be.londonpubman said:
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
I'm pretty sanguine about today's numbers.
Can someone explain to why it matters whether they go faster now and slower later, rather than vice versa?0 -
I bet his coke wasn't ethically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html0 -
It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.Sweeney74 said:
FTPA was and remains nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.2 -
Ethincally... ?FrancisUrquhart said:
I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html1 -
Was that typo deliberate?!FrancisUrquhart said:
I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html1 -
Corrected.rcs1000 said:
Ethincally... ?FrancisUrquhart said:
I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html0 -
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.0 -
No. Corrected.Carnyx said:
Was that typo deliberate?!FrancisUrquhart said:
I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
I should stick to (mis)reporting 10 man England teams instead :-)1 -
At this rate we'll end up with the Chancellor setting interest rates again. Elected politicians making decisions like that is a threat to democracy.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
0 -
Too early yet to be seeing much of an effect from the cup final.MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
I wish when public figures say things like cases may reach "100,000" a day (Javid), or deaths may reach "50 or so" a day (Ferguson, comfortably surpassed only 9 days later), they would explain why they think that. Or preferably put their money where their mouths are.0 -
Given the school holidays mean that the number of tests will absolutely collapse, I'd be staggered if the numbers don't drop dramatically.londonpubman said:
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
The honest conversation is that we cannot afford diktat restrictions any more.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
Debt is soaring, the economy is still well short of full pace, and inflationary pressures are building.
We may soon face a situation where inflation is such that rates really should be rising, but the economy is too fragile to take the rate hikes.
That means the BoE just sit there and watches price growth denude incomes, savings pensions and quality of life.
1 -
Ex-officer gets four years in prison for beating Black undercover colleague at protest
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/07/14/police-beating-undercover-protest-stlouis/
Not so easy to claim it was the protestors being violent when you beat up one of your own.0 -
On the Lib Dems I thought it interesting today that Boris explicitly made the point that for people in the South if they don't want lots of new homes being built in the green parts of their area then it's important people can have good jobs in the North and not just in the South.rcs1000 said:
Good for Boris, good for the UK, terrible for Labour, and rather encouraging for the LibDems.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
Given that NIMBYism is apparently a key concern of the voters in the South it seems the best articulated reason yet for those in the South to get on board rather than be envious that some investment can now go to the North and it's not all put in the same overheated region.5 -
ShameFrancisUrquhart said:
Corrected.rcs1000 said:
Ethincally... ?FrancisUrquhart said:
I bet his coke wasn't ethnically sourced though ;-)rcs1000 said:
Depends on which brand of lager he was drinking.FrancisUrquhart said:
He was part of the raiding party. And apparently did the same for the semi-final.Carnyx said:
TBF he wasn't raiding the stadium (I think) - just raiding the lager in his carry-oot somewhere in North London.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder if coke fuelled flare up his arse stadium raiding yobbo has managed to contract COVID?MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html 0 -
I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.
I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.0 -
Couldn’t agree more with this - in all respects. Whether Boris can deliver on this is the key question, and opinions naturally vary - but it’s firmly in his sights, however wobbly those may be. It’s nowhere in view in his opponents’ thinking as far as I can see.Gardenwalker said:
I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debateOnlyLivingBoy said:
If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.
As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
The point about the better employment and salary levels in the north east and midlands earlier in the day is a good example of what sort of data might tell us whether this plan is working.2 -
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
2 -
But why is it a bad thing that the government can call an election? Are you simply against a politician being able to "play politics"?PamelaW said:I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.
I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.0 -
Besides any Act demanding unanimity can be repealed or overridden with a one line Notwithstanding Act passed by simple majority.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.0 -
Netherlands COVID update: More than 11,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since December
- New cases: 11,064
- Average: 9,242 (+798)
- In hospital: 230 (+18)
- In ICU: 72 (-2)
- New deaths: 30 -
A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=208 -
But rate of 7-day increase in cases already fallen from six fold last week to two-fold.FrancisUrquhart said:Netherlands COVID update: More than 11,000 new cases, biggest one-day increase since December
- New cases: 11,064
- Average: 9,242 (+798)
- In hospital: 230 (+18)
- In ICU: 72 (-2)
- New deaths: 30 -
UK testing capacity looks like it's under strain again.
The proportion of in-person tests being returned in 24hrs is down from 77% to 63% in a week.
Average turnaround time for home tests is up from 45hrs to 56hrs.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1415682800821280780?s=200 -
Yes! A very important point and one curiously missed by so much discussion. It was only designed to soothe Clegg's nerves by stopping a minority government (If Cameron dumped him) calling an election against the opposition. As long as a PM has a majority, she or he can whip an early GE (and as we saw in 2017, opposition parties didn't want to seem frit by criticising the decision anyway). However, in requiring a parliamentary majority rather than prime ministerial fiat to call an election I think it does no harm, as it functions exactly as @Sweeney74 suggests unless the Prime Minister doesn't command support in the Commons. Perhaps it could be amended to allow the government to designate official "matters of confidence", on which the house would be triggering a new general election, so it can avoid the 2019 issue of a majority of MPs being against an election but also a majority against any alternative ministry (by making them choose to collapse the government and create a general election if not backing the government on a specific point)?rcs1000 said:
It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.Sweeney74 said:
FTPA was and remains nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
0 -
Anyone who has experienced socialism knows that it means levelling down, not levelling up, but that is another storyGardenwalker said:
I don’t really see this as socialism personally, but that’s a different debateOnlyLivingBoy said:
If I thought he was serious about any of this I'd be very happy. I am fully on board with the concept of levelling up - it's essentially socialism after all. I just don't think he will make the necessary difficult choices for it to happen.Gardenwalker said:Curse of new thread. FPT:
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.
As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
. Much as I dislike the person giving (or should I say waffling) the message, and also living in a very affluent southern area, I think the idea at least is a good one.2 -
In theory I agree, but the situation in 2019 was excruciating when there was total stalemate in the Commons because of the FTPA.PamelaW said:I must agree with those of you who favour Fixed Term Parliaments and I regret that PM will regain power to select election date.
I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.2 -
40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-578451630 -
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
-2 -
That is very good...my respect to this young man, I hope he gets the opportunity to really prove himself and shut up the haters.FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=205 -
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.0 -
Should it be renamed the Spectre?rcs1000 said:
That The Spectator is a shadow of its old self?FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!2 -
It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
What is the point of calling a vote in the house to call a GE?Commentator said:
Yes! A very important point and one curiously missed by so much discussion. It was only designed to soothe Clegg's nerves by stopping a minority government (If Cameron dumped him) calling an election against the opposition. As long as a PM has a majority, she or he can whip an early GE (and as we saw in 2017, opposition parties didn't want to seem frit by criticising the decision anyway). However, in requiring a parliamentary majority rather than prime ministerial fiat to call an election I think it does no harm, as it functions exactly as @Sweeney74 suggests unless the Prime Minister doesn't command support in the Commons. Perhaps it could be amended to allow the government to designate official "matters of confidence", on which the house would be triggering a new general election, so it can avoid the 2019 issue of a majority of MPs being against an election but also a majority against any alternative ministry (by making them choose to collapse the government and create a general election if not backing the government on a specific point)?rcs1000 said:
It's also an irrelevancy, as the PM can effectively call an election for whenever they want.Sweeney74 said:
FTPA was and remains nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:I can't believe we're returning to the era when the PM can play silly buggers with the general-election date. What a harmful and retrograde step. My view is keep the FTPA, but if an early GE is required it will require the complete unanimity of the House.
The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
The only possible point is to force a minority government to soldier on against their will. And that's better is it?
1 -
Whatever you say, Max! The virus will MAGICALLY disappear after the 19th!MaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
0 -
I am surprised the Tories haven't lost more support to Reform UK thus far.FrancisUrquhart said:No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
0 -
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
4 -
Except they aren't.FrancisUrquhart said:40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
Thus retail remains open.0 -
So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?Stark_Dawning said:
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
0 -
I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)dixiedean said:
Except they aren't.FrancisUrquhart said:40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
Its sounds like the stories of the drug dealers who were caught in the first lockdown here trying to claim to the police that they were essential workers...look I have a high viz jacket and everything.2 -
Sweeney74
I believe PM selecting GE date gives party in power an unfair advantage. I believe potential GE date should be part of a Written Constitution and exceptional terms of overriding the fixed date also in Written Constitution.
However I accept we do not have Written Constitution and will not for decades to come, and that Fixed Terms will only become law again after a future GE results in Coalition.0 -
Rubbish. We all self-identify as PM on here.FrancisUrquhart said:
I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)dixiedean said:
Except they aren't.FrancisUrquhart said:40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.2 -
A bit of the chicken and egg here. Do governments run their full course because the don't think they can win an election at 4 years and so are holding on in hope that things will improve for them, or do they lose the election because they went full term? Probably just two sides of the same coin0
-
And Chancellor, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Education Secretary.TOPPING said:
Rubbish. We all self-identify as PM on here.FrancisUrquhart said:
I know they are much more woke in Australia these days, but self identifying employment roles is a new one on me ;-)dixiedean said:
Except they aren't.FrancisUrquhart said:40% of Australia's population is now under a stay-at-home order.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
But at least we're all better than Gavin Williamson.4 -
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.1 -
Perhaps because their supporters don't mind that there isn't a lot of difference! Either that or possibly it could be the pandemic effect that has benefited Johnson in the same way it has benefited Drakeford and to a lesser extent Sturgeon.Andy_JS said:
I am surprised the Tories haven't lost more support to Reform UK thus far.FrancisUrquhart said:No thread on Tory 13% poll lead?
1 -
We break up tomorrow.FrancisUrquhart said:
I do wonder if it might have been wise to break up / go to home schooling for summer holidays early.londonpubman said:
I think people will make the calls for themselves. They will see the soaring cases and unpleasant acceleration in hospitalisations and deaths. Nervousness is increasing. The school holidays MAY help but they are still a week away. Or they may not.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nobody is really having the honest conversation.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
No idea what schools are like these days, but in my day the last week was mostly messing about anyway.2 -
'Don't you monkeys get paid enough, what's wrong with being abused?'contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.0 -
One would have thought so. But other countries believed they were close to herd immunity in the past - India, South Africa? - and look at them sinceAndy_JS said:
It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!0 -
Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.Sweeney74 said:
So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?Stark_Dawning said:
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.0 -
And a Notwithstanding Act gets passed by a simple majority. What then?Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.Sweeney74 said:
So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?Stark_Dawning said:
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.0 -
To be fair, they were based on total nonsense small scale antibody testing. Like the claim in Brazil of cities having 60% infected.Leon said:
One would have thought so. But other countries believed they were close to herd immunity in the past - India, South Africa? - and look at them sinceAndy_JS said:
It has to go away because herd immunity can't be far off.Leon said:
The Spectator is claiming that Freedom Day is now empty of meaning, and the government wants all restrictions to stay, they just can't say it openly, because politicsMaxPB said:
It's the cup final, cramming people into pubs instead of outdoor fan parks was a bad idea, it turns out.not_on_fire said:48k cases now. So much for confident predictions we'd peaked at 35k cases per day.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
The ONS surveying here has been consistent and thorough.
I am not saying we have herd immunity, but i think the data the likes.of the ONS are collating is much more accurate picture.0 -
The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
an interesting position.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.Sweeney74 said:
So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?Stark_Dawning said:
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
I can see that playing well on here.0 -
I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.3 -
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?0 -
Said nobody ever. Certainly not me.Philip_Thompson said:
'Don't you monkeys get paid enough, what's wrong with being abused?'contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
But that, I fear, is the attitude of a few idiots.0 -
Well, that sort of thing could happen in any situation. An unscrupulous PM could pack the Lords with cronies* and prevent any further elections happening at all. But at least that would demonstrate to everyone what an absolute shit he was.Philip_Thompson said:
And a Notwithstanding Act gets passed by a simple majority. What then?Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, absolutely. In fact that would give great cover for the LOTO. He can pretend that he's relaxed about an early GE (despite being miles behind in the polls) but then secretly have a quiet word with one backbencher to scupper it. He wouldn't lose face and would still not be conceding any political ground to his opponent.Sweeney74 said:
So every MP bar one refusenik wants a GE, so it's motion denied, and that's ok?Stark_Dawning said:
That's precisely the point - if the PM wants an early election he has to make a very convincing case that persuades every MP. Wanting it because he's ahead in the polls will no longer cut it.Sweeney74 said:
Nonsense.Stark_Dawning said:
That's only because the LOTO always feels he has to agree to an early election simply to look macho, whether he thinks it's good for the country or not. Follow my idea of requiring unanimity of the House and that problem evaporates.Philip_Thompson said:
Two thirds of our "fixed term parliament's" ended early.Stocky said:Header: I agree, it's worth a punt and I've been backing 2023 for a a couple of months now. I did mention it here in the light of the abolishment of the FTPA.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
*Something that some Leavers were demanding during the Brexit hullaballoo.0 -
Surely it depends on the polls.
The reason Thatcher and Blair went early in 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 is they had comfortable poll leads.
The reason Major and Brown delayed was they were behind in the polls3 -
No indeed but some of those who used him as an example did claim that.TOPPING said:
I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.0 -
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries3 -
The reason I'm saying it's cup final data feeding in is the explosion in lateral flow positives since the 12th, these are up by around 45% WoW vs PCR which will come in at about a 25% WoW increase. LFTs are rubbish but at the rate we're going through them they will be a much earlier indicator of infection than PCR testing which is based on symptoms which can take at least 3 days to show up after infection. People getting infected on Sunday during the match will get their first sign of symptoms on Wednesday but could be LFT positive by Monday. Even if we look at Tuesday's backfilled numbers the PCR positives will end up around 25% up WoW, which is not exactly a huge deal but the massive increase in LFT positives to me is a sign of the cup final showing up already. That feeds into symptomatic PCR positives from tomorrow's numbers and through the weekend.
I'd also venture that football fans and anti-vaxxers have a slightly bigger crossover than they do with other sports which may also figure into the PCR positive rate.1 -
Well this is interesting on the split between vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospital:
Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:
73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/14153663022990008340 -
Nope, it was hugely unpopular in 2017 and was one of the main factors May lost her majority.gealbhan said:
“ Even May scrapped a dementia tax.”.HYUFD said:
The party supports refusing indyref2.gealbhan said:
Can you give examples that convince you are?HYUFD said:
Given we are on 40%+ in every poll you will be waiting a long time for that, I am actually on the moderate end of the current Tory PartyMaxPB said:
Unlikely given that I'm not in the party and tbh, I don't think I'll be tempted to join until the likes of HYFUD are made to feel unwelcome and move to some other party or go independent.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I like and respect you hugely Max. Some principles, perhaps you can be one of the people who can put the Tories back into the mainstream, as a party I might vote one day vote for (again)MaxPB said:
I live in a three way marginal seat. If the Lib Dems prove themselves to be a serious party (stop laughing) by 2023/24 I know where my vote is going. If not I'll sit on my hands, I can't vote for the Tories led by Boris. The guy is a complete numpty.TOPPING said:
Careful now, tiger - dismissing me yesterday and @MaxPB today (both of whom, I'm guessing, voted Cons in 2019) is making your "who cares" work even harder.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, the main reason the Tories have a majority of 80 and seats in white working class former Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands is down to Boris.MaxPB said:Boris is trash. His speech was bullshit and the pretence that he isn't robbing the south to bribe voters in the north is no longer credible. Honestly, it's time for the toy party to pull the trigger and get rid.
Anyway, even if the Tories saw a 10% swing to the LDs in the South in 2023/24 the LDs would still only pick up about 25 seats, which would still give a narrow Tory majority of 30 if Boris held the Red Wall.
Boris is the most successful Tory election winner since Thatcher and when they got rid of her it did not end well. The Tories then proceeded to lose 3 out of the next 4 general elections and even when they returned to power in 2010 it was without a majority
What would Oscar say in such a situation...
crushing SNP heads using tank tracks and nuking Spain doesn’t come across as moderate.
For example, where do you stand on using some form of dementia tax to fairly fund social care. The current government doesn’t seem to have a care policy at all?
And on house building. Build on green belt and build more council houses?
Even May scrapped a dementia tax.
Unlike Philip I want to build on brownbelt land first and minimise green belt construction
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes0 -
Whether the country is institutionally racist seems to have become a bit of political football.....TOPPING said:
I think racism is endemic in the UK but that is not the same as the UK being institutionally racist. And Saka mentioned nothing of that in his statement.contrarian said:
The fact that these guys are fabulously wealthy does not make racial abuse any less difficult to bear or more excusable to mete out than in any other case.TOPPING said:
Bit snarky of you to demean capitalist enterprise. Anyone can go anywhere they want surely. Just have to follow the rules for the moment.contrarian said:
Was that written on his private Jet on its way to the green coded Turks and Caicos Islands....?FrancisUrquhart said:A very reasoned statement from Mr Saka....
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
To me it seems some of our institutions like the police and judiciary have enough elements of racism to be considered institutionally racist, others like the NHS or HMRC do not. Does that make the UK institutionally racist or not?
Take your pick, it simply depends where you draw the line in the sand, it is a spectrum, not a binary yes/no and means different things to different people.0 -
I think an acceptance in the western world that this is going to bring average life expectancy down for at least a decade until we learn much more about treatments and come up with a "perfect" vaccine that stops infection at a rate of over 99%.TimT said:
The virus is with us for ever. The question is not eradication, but how we live with it. Vaccination is clearly key, but there are many other factors - and perhaps a need to reset expectationsLeon said:The world is now clearly in a third or fourth wave. The 7 day average of cases is firmly swinging up. Global deaths will turn any day now
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
Afternoon all.
I suspect based on the latest news that, on the one hand, masks are going to be around for a long time but, on the other, the Covid app has had its chips.
The stats keep getting worse, but it still looks as if this is the product of the Plague spreading out from the original hotspots through the rest of the country and getting a bit worse all over the place, whilst hospital numbers remain broadly stable in the areas that were hit hardest first. So long as that remains the case then the country should be able to cope until this wretched disease finally starts to run out of victims - although when that will be, God alone knows.0
