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Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com
Why 2023 is the value bet for the year or the next election – politicalbetting.com
I have just bet at 3.6 on Betfair that 2023 will be the year of the next general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act is being replaced by a new measure that puts the control of the next election date into the hands of the prime minister
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A wild mushroom risotto is one of my favourites to cook. Soak dried wild mushrooms. After frying the onions until soft, add chopped chestnut mushrooms and the drained/squeezed/chopped wild mushrooms (reserver the liquor), season to taste. Once the mushrooms are cooked add the risotto rice, stir and add a good glassful of white wine and reduce, then slowly add the reserved mushroom liquor. Finish with a nob of butter, grated parmesan and chopped parsley.
Hello.
Contra to earlier reports, I think Boris just gave the most important speech of his premiership.
Despite the usual waffle, inappropriate asides, irrelevant detours, and awkward levity - he has in fact laid out the nature of the challenge facing this country and indeed the government’s high level response.
It has long been a near obsession of mine that this country is both the most regionally unequal *and* the most centralised than any comparator economy. Boris agrees, and goes on to note that East German GDP has now accelerated past that of the UK’s “not-South”.
It has been an astonishing failure of British policy making.
Boris’s remedy appears to be four-fold:
1. More devolution. Counties will follow metros.
2. Connectivity funding (transport and broadband)
3. Regionally focussed Industrial policy : Britain as “science” superpower
4. Quality of life issues: crime, education but also town centre investment.
To be honest, he gets it.
It is obvious he has read and absorbed the literature.
Whether or not the govt can truly deliver, I am highly skeptical; it requires a revolution in Westminster’s mindshift which I don’t yet see.
I know there are logical reasons for calm serenity, in the face of these stats, but Ouch
Yes but I think the causation goes the other way - it's because Major and Brown were so disastrously unpopular that they held on to the last minute, hoping something would turn up.
The political genius that was Tony Blair ensured that it didn't, the political mediocrity that was David Cameron meant that it almost did.
This fucking plague won't go away. Jeez!
PMs don't like to go beyond 4 years unless they have to because of the risk of adverse developments in the 5th year.
Also the boundary changes will/should be in place by then, whether they actually help CON remains to be seen but the current expectation is that they will.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/15595227/england-fan-flare-bum-strolled-into-wembley/
Quite a day out, 20 cans, umpteen lines of coke, flare up his arse, then breaking into Wembley. Bet his mum his proud.
The danger for him politically is that voters in the South think he's doing it while voters in the North realise he isn't.
No idea what schools are like these days, but in my day the last week was mostly messing about anyway.
The FTPA was a bad joke. Good riddance to it.
What is new is that I’ve never seen a minister - let alone a PM - articulate (however so waffle) this systemic issue and summarise the key responses.
As I said I’m skeptical of delivery - not least cos this shit costs money - but I have to pay due respect to Boris. The debate is going to change now - from “do we have a problem” to “do we have the right solutions” and “how do we afford it”.
I'm pretty sanguine about today's numbers.
Can someone explain to why it matters whether they go faster now and slower later, rather than vice versa?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9782989/Woke-Coke-Drug-dealers-targeting-middle-class-users-ethically-sourced-cocaine.html
The frequency of elections has increased dramatically since they fixed terms at five years.
I should stick to (mis)reporting 10 man England teams instead :-)
I wish when public figures say things like cases may reach "100,000" a day (Javid), or deaths may reach "50 or so" a day (Ferguson, comfortably surpassed only 9 days later), they would explain why they think that. Or preferably put their money where their mouths are.
Debt is soaring, the economy is still well short of full pace, and inflationary pressures are building.
We may soon face a situation where inflation is such that rates really should be rising, but the economy is too fragile to take the rate hikes.
That means the BoE just sit there and watches price growth denude incomes, savings pensions and quality of life.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/07/14/police-beating-undercover-protest-stlouis/
Not so easy to claim it was the protestors being violent when you beat up one of your own.
Given that NIMBYism is apparently a key concern of the voters in the South it seems the best articulated reason yet for those in the South to get on board rather than be envious that some investment can now go to the North and it's not all put in the same overheated region.
I can see next GE being October 2023 (which avoids Lab and Con Conferences) or May 2024. Problem with either is that it cannot be too close to Scottish Independence Referendum. Also Boundary Changes legally happen July 2023 and 3 months may be too tight for MPs who must find another seat as their present seat disappears or significantly changes against their party. Toss up between October 2023 and May 2024.
The point about the better employment and salary levels in the north east and midlands earlier in the day is a good example of what sort of data might tell us whether this plan is working.
The entire house wants a general election except a small minority of MPs who are likely to lose their seat or a rabble of Nats looking to spoil?
If the government of the day want to call an election, at any point in a given parliament, then they should have the ability to do so.
- New cases: 11,064
- Average: 9,242 (+798)
- In hospital: 230 (+18)
- In ICU: 72 (-2)
- New deaths: 3
https://twitter.com/BukayoSaka87/status/1415692762708680717?s=20
The proportion of in-person tests being returned in 24hrs is down from 77% to 63% in a week.
Average turnaround time for home tests is up from 45hrs to 56hrs.
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1415682800821280780?s=20
. Much as I dislike the person giving (or should I say waffling) the message, and also living in a very affluent southern area, I think the idea at least is a good one.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57845163
Because that's what his fellow heroes of oppressed immigrant masses of Great Britain are up to (The Mail.....naughty).
While the rest of us celebrate our white privilege in Britain's lovely coastal areas.
The only possible point is to force a minority government to soldier on against their will. And that's better is it?
Six years ago Saka lead Greenford High School Yr 8 team to be Ealing Borough champions.
Because the NSW government, unlike Victoria, is allowing employers to self-identify as essential.
Thus retail remains open.
Its sounds like the stories of the drug dealers who were caught in the first lockdown here trying to claim to the police that they were essential workers...look I have a high viz jacket and everything.
I believe PM selecting GE date gives party in power an unfair advantage. I believe potential GE date should be part of a Written Constitution and exceptional terms of overriding the fixed date also in Written Constitution.
However I accept we do not have Written Constitution and will not for decades to come, and that Fixed Terms will only become law again after a future GE results in Coalition.
But at least we're all better than Gavin Williamson.
But it does make the allegation 'Britain is institutionally racist' very hard to take, when evidence of the opposite is winging its way to paradise.
The ONS surveying here has been consistent and thorough.
I am not saying we have herd immunity, but i think the data the likes.of the ONS are collating is much more accurate picture.
The bug is like some mad dog that won't let go. I fear this virus will be with us deep into 2022, maybe even 2023
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
I can see that playing well on here.
Isn’t this a bit vacuous it could be a Libdem position?
We say no to Iraq War. We say no to Tuition Fees. We say no to Dementia tax. That’s not a policy though?
What is the moderate policy position in the Tory Party regarding funding Social care? Surely some sort of baseline on funding from existing wealth as proposed in 2017 is the moderate way forward for meeting bills in the years ahead?
And council housing HY? Surely the moderate position in the Tory party is for building more council housing to meet the challenge of the years ahead?
But that, I fear, is the attitude of a few idiots.
*Something that some Leavers were demanding during the Brexit hullaballoo.
The reason Thatcher and Blair went early in 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005 is they had comfortable poll leads.
The reason Major and Brown delayed was they were behind in the polls
I'd also venture that football fans and anti-vaxxers have a slightly bigger crossover than they do with other sports which may also figure into the PCR positive rate.
Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:
73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were <50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were >50)
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1415366302299000834
The moderate position on social care is certainly not taking peoples house to fund even at home care, at most it is using NI to fund it.
Yes you can build more social homes but using the sale of existing council homes to help fund it so more still have the opportunity to buy their own homes
To me it seems some of our institutions like the police and judiciary have enough elements of racism to be considered institutionally racist, others like the NHS or HMRC do not. Does that make the UK institutionally racist or not?
Take your pick, it simply depends where you draw the line in the sand, it is a spectrum, not a binary yes/no and means different things to different people.
I suspect based on the latest news that, on the one hand, masks are going to be around for a long time but, on the other, the Covid app has had its chips.
The stats keep getting worse, but it still looks as if this is the product of the Plague spreading out from the original hotspots through the rest of the country and getting a bit worse all over the place, whilst hospital numbers remain broadly stable in the areas that were hit hardest first. So long as that remains the case then the country should be able to cope until this wretched disease finally starts to run out of victims - although when that will be, God alone knows.