Batley & Spen – What happened in the May locals ward by ward – politicalbetting.com
Batley & Spen – What happened in the May locals ward by ward – politicalbetting.com
With the by-election taking place a week on Thursday any data about what happened in recent elections in the seat is well worth examining and arguably could be a better indicator than the one 500 sample poll that we have seen,
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It really comes down to how much Labour vote Galloway is chewing through.
Have I gone back in time?
As a point of comparison, the LD capture of Amersham Town Council in May was a big indicator of the party's progress and chances in the constituency.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/18/byelection-johnson-progressive-alliance-educated-middle-class
I don't think there were local elections there this year
Hoyle has been a waste of space ever since he told Johnson to bring the foreign aid cut to the House and Johnson ignored him. If you give someone an order and they flout it, you're not in command any more. Say what you like about Bercow, but no government was ever able to humiliate him like that.
There are elements of Galloway-ism which I can imagine are attractive to Heavy Wooleners.
(And one of the anecdotal reports I read on here or perhaps on Twitter suggested he was going after them).
Indeed, Galloway may enable a Tory win by eating Labour’s vote but he may also enable a Labour win by repressing Heavy Woolen > Tory switchers!
I was thinking about another marginal constituency up north which was named after two towns one usually voted Labour and the other Conservative and it used to change hands at nearly every General Election.
It was Nelson and Colne, now abolished.
Which surely must mean that, wfh advice for double vaxxed should also be lifted? But then I suppose that sets up a potential disincentive to get vaxxed...
Asking because that has major implications for schools.
"A furious Whitehall source alerted me to this hypocrisy. They said: 'If those in Downing Street had to wear masks all day, or tried to run a business while sticking to social-distancing rules, or were forced to sit looking at a screen at home all day, would they be slower to keep the rest of us under those restrictions?
'No wonder they don't understand why four more weeks of lockdown is a big deal for so many people, and why it may be a death-blow for countless more businesses.' "
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9704403/JULIA-HARTLEY-BREWER-Ministers-tell-theyre-not-obeying-Covid-rules-10-Downing-Street.html
Utter incompetence Mike.
It is effectively the Cleckheaton, Heckmondwike and Liversedge wards.
Birstall ward is neither Batley nor Spen.
Tbh face coverings and social distancing observation have pretty much stopped where I work.
Batley East - LABOUR
Fazila Loonat (Labour Party) - 3,520
Keiron George Gavaghan (Conservative Party) - 1,160
James David Hansford (Green Party) - 308
Christopher Martin Kane (Liberal Democrats) - 139
Dave Carrington (Reform UK) - 83
Batley West - LABOUR
Shabir Pandor (Labour Party) - 2,950 votes - Elected
Lewis Peter Roberts (Conservative Party) - 1,501
Jack Senior (Green Party) - 293
John Duggan (Independent) - 251
Stephen James Long (Liberal Democrats) - 173
Birstall and Birkenshaw - CONSERVATIVE + CONSERVATIVE
Mark Stephen Thompson (Conservative Party) - 2,449
Joshua Connor Sheard (Conservative Party) - 2,175
Gina Louise Harding (Labour Party) - 1,121
Julie Margaret Smith (Labour Party) - 977
Ross Ashley Peltier (Green Party) - 419
Tahir Akram (Green Party) - 361
Louise Mary Walsh (Liberal Democrats) - 238
David Andrew Shepherd (Liberal Democrats) - 225
Cleckheaton - LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Kathryn Mary Pinnock (Liberal Democrats) - 2,422
Piers John Briggs (Conservative Party) - 1,728
Joseph Hayat (Labour Party) - 589
Nicholas Eugene Whittingham (Green Party) - 236
Heckmondwike - LABOUR
Stephen David Hall (Labour Party) - 2,09
Itrat Ali (Conservative Party) - 1,947
Alan John Freeman (Green Party) - 391
Josephine Mary Pugsley (Liberal Democrats) - 200
Liversedge and Gomersal - CONSERVATIVE
Melanie Ann Stephen (Conservative Party) - 2,801
Jude McKaig (Labour Party) - 1,207
Linda Simmons (Green Party) - 321
Tracey Louise King (Independent) - 288
David Peter Snee (Liberal Democrats) - 193
So I was wondering if there was another thing that happened.
https://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2021/66/
Con 11,586
Lab 11,482
LibDem 3,365
Green 1,968
Other 622
So no Heavy Wollen factor.
Key issues being what happens to the LibDem vote in Cleckheaton and the Labour's Muslim vote.
They really are not very different from the 2019 ones - the Tories did slightly better but not by much.
I made the point the Conservatives were in a bad place in 2019 and the results in that election confirmed that and since then the Party has made a substantial recovery.
That said, local elections aren't always reliable and the personal votes for Independents do muddy the waters somewhat. OTOH, it's always been my experience those who turn out for local elections are likely to turn out at any and every election so you have a 30-40% turnout election - a local by-election (perhaps 50-60%) and a full GE (60-70%).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Gloucester
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Stroud
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bath and North East Somerset
I don't see anything unusual about the Cheltenham rise but there will be minor variations across the country.
Basically the different between opposition being an “equality” issue, and one which would be potentially counterproductive through imposing significant extra costs under threat of legal jeopardy.
Its somewhat unusual at local elections in that none of the six wards have changed hands for IIRC over a decade.
But this is a betting site and giving betting advice based on out of date info might lead to regret.
Anyway Barnesian has given the more recent results for this year.
However, I am reading from various different sources that Galloway is destroying the Labour Muslim vote, and that they just want Starmer out because he has not condemned Israel and has expelled Corbyn
I am sure there are many on here who know if this is happening on the ground, but if so where on earth do Labour go if they lose because of this
MY experience, based on being out yesterday and today in London, as follows - three categories of people - first, those who have stopped (or perhaps never did) follow any rules on face coverings. Unfortunately, as the law can't be enforced, people are able to get away with not wearing face coverings on buses and tubes for example.
Second, the majority - they follow the rules. In other words, they wear a face covering when they have to (as mandated by the law or the premises where they are) but not otherwise. I have friends who refuse to give details for Test and Trace but no one seems to care.
Third - the careful - there are people who continue to wear face coverings both indoors and outdoors. Some are elderly and whether, particularly in my area, they have been vaccinated and are simply risk averse or whether they have not been vaccinated (for myriad reasons) I don't know. There are younger people in my area who wear face coverings outdoors (and more since the coming of the Delta Variant).
I'm not sure what the crass "people support restrictions on other people" means either. I've not meant a single solitary soul who has said they like the restrictions and want them to continue ad infinitum. Perhaps it's just the projection of frustration - everyone wants this to end but only when it is seen to be safe to do so. They care about their own safety AND the safety of those close to them (both family and friends).
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
11m
Reminder: the Step 4 decision modellers were instructed to assume there'd be only 2.15m doses per week currently - ie about 300k per day.
So if Labour keep their Muslim vote they win.
If they don't, they don't.
It's almost as if the government is creating barriers to fully unlocking the nation.
That would give Con 40%, Lab 45%, LD+Grn 10%, GG 5%
+or - 5% on these figures.
Lab excellent value at 3.4.
Boris is just far too weak to step in and do anything about it. He fears the scientists going on TV and mouthing off about how he's killing old people. Blair and Dave would have seen them off by now and told them to get back in their box, especially with a majority of 80.
Yeah, but how many of them actually work?
They don’t see any downside to delay, because Covid is the only thing on their radar and the only thing they have the expertise to deliver advice on. Economic impacts etc are “for others” and there is no “joined up” modelling/cost-benefit analyses trading one against the other.
Democracy, eh?
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/20/is-gb-news-a-threat-to-democracy-thats-the-million-dollar-oesion
It was miscalculations like this that prevented him winning a majority against Gordon Brown even after the latter had steered the economy off a cliff.
No entertaining AT ALL of lockdowns during winter should be accepted. Hospitals are there to be used, not protected.
I thought it was a cranky website like the Canary.
Therefore I am glad Bercow former Con MP and Speaker has broken this convention (by joining Labour) a few months ago. I suspect he will be politically active again.
I can see GG potentially taking a chunk out of Labour's 40% but I can't see him overtaking a 40% Tory vote or taking substantial votes from LDs and Greens.
Hartlepool v Torquay
OK, not quite what I was expecting. So gardening it is then.
Going to have to bring forwards the 2nd doses soon, considering that 8 weeks ago it was about 100k per day being done.
- the closure of outdoor gyms to protect against a virus that spreads indoors among the obese
- the checking in at pubs and restaurants
- making people buy rip-off private tests rather than government ones when they get home from travelling.
And there's a nice riverside walk near me where the council has stopped joggers and cyclists between 10 am and 3 pm because apparently the virus spreads outdoors at 10:01 but not at 9:59.
One pub is also trialling ordering at the bar, it probably breaks about a thousand rules but it felt amazing.
I do understand: it is because, despite all its other flaws, the virus is at least a careful adherent to one-way systems.