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Survation has the party that dropped 20% in C&A with a 6% lead in Batley & Spen – politicalbetting.c
Survation has the party that dropped 20% in C&A with a 6% lead in Batley & Spen – politicalbetting.com
In a poll with the fieldwork taking place before the C&A by-election news Survation has the Tories set to offset their disaster there with a gain in Batley and Spen.
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The details of this poll in the Daily Mail are a horror show for Starmer
Boris even leads on trustworthy and the NHS
Starmer only leads on understands workers by 38 to 33
Best PM
Boris 55 Starmer 18 DK 23
Best for North
Boris 40 Starmer 32 DK 28
Strong
Boris 54 Starmer 24
Trustworthy
Boris 39 Starmer 32
Intelligent
Boris 73 Starmer 67
Charismatic
Boris 60 Starmer 23
Understands workers
Boris 33 Starmer 38
Has a clear stand
Boris 50 Starmer 32
And Best policies
Brexit
Boris 57 Starmer 17
Covid
Boris 55 Starmer 21
Economy
Boris 55 Starmer 21
NHS
Boris 45 Starmer 30
That message, that the tories only care about the red wall, could lose them the next election.
It's very Janus Johnson though.
Batley & Spen (12 days to go)
Conservative 1.27 on Betfair but 4/11 with Hills and 3/10 with Paddy Power
Labour 4.2
Workers Party of George Galloway 90
For me the in B & S Survation poll is a big surprise - I expected it to be way closer and maybe in 2 weeks, it will be. Either way the fact that so much of the news is focusing on Keir Starmer's troubles should be very worrying for Labour and a huge relief for the Tories.
In C & A a huge LD success and a poor result for the government. I think the T. Villiers analysis on this may be correct but if so it should be resisted. The country needs more homes in many places and the NIMBY tendency,while understandable, is not going to help any government, now or for the future.
Here's a pretty scathing summary:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/18/get-back-traditional-tory-values-cabinet-warns-boris-johnson/
And as they say, 'the scale of this defeat should not be underestimated.'
And here's an analysis of other Blue Wall seats now in danger:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/18/signs-tories-defeat-chesham-amersham-visible-local-elections/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/18/chesham-amersham-loss-shows-boris-johnson-may-starting-pay-price/
The point being made by some is that this wasn't a one-off. It's a swallow that heralds summer. And you could clearly see the signs in last month's local election results. The tories lost 34 council seats in the South-east.
As Allister Heath puts it in the Telegraph, 'What is the point of voting Tory if you are a prosperous shire-dwelling Southern voter?'
Wimbledon
Carshalton and Wallington
Winchester
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Eastbourne
Wokingham
Surrey South West
Cheltenham
Lewes
And if this meme really takes off, which I think it will, there are a raft of other seats that could be under threat.
Where does this leave Labour? I don't know to be honest.
But here's the thing: there are areas of the UK with more than adequate numbers of homes. Those areas, though, don't have jobs or opportunities. While the UK population has increased markedly in the last 30 years, the populations of Salford and Sunderland have declined. Some places, like Bolton, have seen their populations drop by a quarter in the last century.
A successful government would bring the North up, so that the South didn't need to build too many new homes. Win, win.
Small (510), unweighted sample.
I’m rather surprised that Survation have allowed their good name to be associated with non-dom Harmsworth and his henchmen. If forced to deal with such people one should insist on applying the most stringent professional standards. Maybe the other polling companies did insist… and lost the job?
https://www.survation.com/conservatives-lead-new-polling-for-batley-and-spen-by-election/
(There is a link to the detailed tables at the bottom, but at time of writing it doesn’t work.)
1. There are a lot of undecideds - especially in Batley.
2. Labour is getting more of the 2019 Tory vote than the Tories are getting of the 2019 Labour vote.
3. Labour leads among 18-54s, the Tories are well ahead with the 54+ cohort.
4. The 2019 local party pro-Brexit vote is swinging behind the Tories.
5. The Galloway vote is almost all 2019 Labour.
Given the undecideds, there is probably still all to play for. What vote Galloway gets is very likely to decide the outcome.
Survation are as reputable as any other polling company
Indeed why would Mike use it as a thread header
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/df05733a-d064-11eb-9bfa-a3bc386e6928
They include Witney, where you may recall the council fell last month
And 7 of the seats include Cabinet Ministers. Stop and think about that for a moment because one of those may turn out to be Brutus.
This is a catastrophic result for Johnson's Conservatives. We passed peak Boris on May 25th and I would not now bet on him winning the next General Election.
Good old Theresa!
This is fantastic news for progressive opponents of the Scottish Liberal Democrats. The more their English bosses chase votes in Surrey, Hampshire, Berkshire et al the easier it is to continue peeling away centre-left SLD voters.
Without tactical voting the SLDs would be extinct.
Put your own house in order.
On the topic of Labour, however ...
However, Starmer is not Corbyn and the latter was poison for many voters both personally and politically. Labour seem to be polling around 34% at the moment and as Johnson slides, and as he fails to deliver all his
bribespromises to the electorate up north (because it's simply impossible) they will not all be voting blue next time around. Throw into the mix the unique pandemic situation and a bank of other clouds now appearing on the horizon, and I don't think it's quite the time to be writing off Labour.However, as a former market research professional, I have residual fondness for the sector, and am genuinely disappointed when an otherwise reputable pollster allows their good name to be associated with typical DM guff.
Mike, like any media owner, knows that a shouty poll sells. Personally, I usually find the tasty bits are deep in the tables, and missed by 99.9% of readers.
You do know this type of result is not uncommon in by elections and in this case there were many local factors
If you vote LD and this results in a Hung Parliament then the LDs will go with Labour and anyone remotely prosperous will be paying much, much, much higher taxes.
Which is why those people will not risk it in a GE when it really matters.
All of this
bribingspending has to come from somewhere, you know.Read today's newspapers, including right-leaners, if you think this is just my take. It isn't.
Boris is charismatic. He learned, or at least honed his craft on television. We think we know him in the same way we presume to know anyone off the telly. He is like Presidents Trump and Reagan in this respect, or Arnie as Governor of California. Take away the mass media and Boris has made an awful lot of speeches, like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn, but unlike most recent politicians. He has the easy charm of Tony Blair.
This is anecdotal, and from the South rather than the North, but I have overheard people turning away any criticism of Boris, with something along the lines of, "you're only complaining about that because it is Boris". We sometimes read on this very PB that such and such criticism can be dismissed because the person making it is suffering from Boris derangement syndrome.
There is also the sense that Boris is "on our side". Or at least, that Labour is not "on our side". This is partly about the culture war CCHQ is fighting but also that Boris won the fight for Brexit and now is leading the fight against the pandemic, and no doubt partly because Keir Starmer's Labour does not seem to stand for anything at all.
“But there are a group of seats – up to 30 or 40 – where the Conservative vote is not Johnsonian, considers the government to be pretty populist, not focused on the interests of taxpayers, not sufficiently pro-business, and that vote is soft. And it’s vulnerable.”
Highlighting Tory losses in his local area at recent local elections in “very prosperous, middle-class commuter areas”, such as Hitchin, Harpenden and Bishops Stortford, he added, “the current trajectory of the Conservative party is not particularly sympathetic to those areas, and the local residents are not particularly sympathetic to what the Conservative party has become”.
The knee-jerk 'local factor' line of yesterday morning has now yielded to something much more analytical amongst all but the most diehard Boris fans. The fact is that the signs of this were seen at last month's locals. The tories lost 34 seats in the South-east.
With the exception of HS2, which affects several southern constituencies, those 'local factors' are in fact the whole of southern Britain. Planning in particular has caused ructions in tory circles. Remain areas are also now starting to witness the problems emerging with Brexit. And the anti-woke agenda which is designed to shore up the Alf Garnet types in the north: the 54+ year olds mentioned earlier, is pissing off the many socially liberal people in cities like London and Bristol.
Janus Johnson is about to get his comeuppance. Sacrificing all your principles, or should I say - failing to have any principles - is de rigueur in politics. But one day it comes back to bite you in the ass.
But thank you for your post: it reminded me why I despise the Tory mindset.
Mr Heaths question is ridiculous. You vote Tory to keep Labour out, simples.
Being boring, predictable and uninspiring (or “meh” as you put it) might soon make Starmer seem like a godsent safe haven for English voters disgusted with the Tory revolution. After all, revolutions usually have counter-revolutions, and they are never pretty events for the erstwhile revolutionaries.
Levelling up in the North means levelling down in the South.
PMQ's next Wednesday could be interesting!
Good to have you back by the way.
Unionist tactical votes are a false dawn for the SLDs, because one day those voters will all go “home”. And when that happens, the vacuum at the core will dissolve in a wee fart.
All parties do better in Scotland when the national leader is Scottish. Brown held onto SLAB seats that would just be a dream now.
The converse is that those 4 SLD seats do look vulnerable with Davey in charge.
I defer to your greater knowledge of Starmer. Like most folk, I’ve hardly seen the guy in action.
Incidentally, fun times in Scandinavia. On Monday at 10am our PM is facing a vote of no confidence, and four of the eight parliamentary parties (V, SD, M, KD, ie enough) are saying they’re going to fell him.
Why? Long story, but the straw that broke the camel’s back was a Social Democrat/Green coalition government legislating for the gradual abolition of rent control. The Left Party (renamed Communists) hit the roof.
Between 1983 and 2010 the primary axis in Scottish voting was Tory, anti-Tory. From 2015, it is unionist-nationalist.
The unionist vote isn't going to fragment, indeed it's more likely to go in the opposite direction, and become ever more concentrated.
The next 3 years are going to include plenty of bad news not conducive to his bullshitting.
Who will be forming a new government if the Swedish coalition falls? A different coalition or new elections.
It’s the economy stupid! And when we say “economy” what we really mean is job security, career progression, grocery shopping and fun money. Take one look at Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and ask yourself if you’d trust him to hold your dog’s lead while you nip in to the corner shop? If the answer’s no, then why did you give him the security details to your bank account?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/18/conservative-seat-england-middle-class-chesham-and-amersham-tories
I am bearish on equities too at present. Those who have done well with their finances in lockdown have had to put their money somewhere, and that has been equities and property. Inflation is building, and we see in the markets how they drop with even a hint that higher interest rates are on the way.
I certainly wouldn't want to be holding stocks that have taken on a lot of debt that they will struggle to refinance. There are lots of zombie businesses out there.
Post-independence I’ll be out of the SNP in a flash and trying to rebuild a truly liberal Scottish tradition.
This is why I am so disappointed by SLDs: they could so easily be a force for good, but they have chosen the dark side. Hell mend them.
The once monolithic Congress Party in India is a mess, and even the ANC in S Africa is having trouble.
Whether these perceptions are fair or not doesn’t matter. These things matter.
Of course things can and will change and we have a long way to go until the GE but that is how it looks to me now.
Although I would emphasise that baldness, before anyone accuses me of some sort of prejudice, is within the 'normal' range for male Homo sapiens.
Whether his liver survives as long is another question.
Four days ago, a former insider at a London-based thinktank wrote a piece for the Spectator about the forthcoming Chesham and Amersham byelection..........“Hopefully then we can stop hearing any rubbish about how the Lib Dems are set to tear down the Conservatives’ ‘blue wall’ in the home counties,” he wrote.........
Unfortunately not being a subscriber to the Spectator-I loathe it almost as much as the Telegraph-I have no idea who the former insider is! If anyone here is a subscriber (I promise not to tell anyone) can they tell me the author of the article?
‘The Optical Illusion of Net Ratings’
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-optical-illusion-of-net-ratings.html
Come a GE and a choice between Con and Lab coalition government, the south, outside London and Toynbeeville will vote Conservative.
The Tories vote dropped by the same amount as the turnout
I think it was stay at home Tories vs enthusiastic Remainers.