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The LDs take Chesham and Amersham with a 25% CON to LD swing – politicalbetting.com
The LDs take Chesham and Amersham with a 25% CON to LD swing – politicalbetting.com
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Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.
Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.
Can’t see a single c&a story on the bbc front page
The governing party loses one of its safest seats and… nothing
EDIT - With respect to the count itself, the setup looked pretty impressive from vids & pics, and the works appeared to be moving along at unhurried but rapid clip, like folks knew what to do and where doing it. And all very visible behind plexiglass for observers to see & monitor.
Given the landslide nature of the result, the LD victory would have been obvious by the latter part of the counting, just from the sheer number of ballot papers stacked up for Ms Green compared to Tall Blue.
We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.
Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.
And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.
Certainly for Labour voters in LD-Tory marginals. But will the same be true, for Lib Dems in Labour-Tory seats?
Johnson has lost his magic touch and his power to attract.
Draw 5.7
Scotland 12
Here's Gordon Brown's favourite goal, courtesy of Paul Gascoigne:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52915690
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1
There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.
Edit
Ooh the guardian has woken up;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-win-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-in-stunning-upset
Well, only for a bit, and early on in the night, but still.
Lesson learned.
For now, of course, no more than a possibility.
I'm a happy man.
More importantly, this sends shockwaves through the political sphere. We all know by-elections don't necessarily translate to General Elections. BUT, and it's a huge but, this does demonstrate that in going all out for the Labour red wall, the Boris tories are losing their heartlands in the south.
Game on.
Tory support is a mile wide and an inch thick.
… Boris Johnson also made a visit to the area to back Fleet earlier this month, telling local paper the Bucks Free Press (BFP): “I think he’s a superb candidate, he’s a local man, he’s lived here for a while and has a long career in business. He has a huge amount to offer parliament and the constituents.”
The prime minister highlighted hopes of turning the nearby Chilterns into a national park, and ensuring that development takes place on brownfield land, not the green belt. And he claimed that if Fleet won, he would be the tallest Tory MP. The BFP said the MP, who towered over Johnson as they toured the streets, was “around 6ft 9in”...
Major issues in the campaign included the HS2 rail line, which cuts through the constituency and the Government’s proposed planning reforms which have sparked fears about building in the countryside around the seat in the Chilterns.
Mr Fleet acknowledged the need to rebuild “trust and understanding” with voters and also suggested the Tories had been out-campaigned by the Lib Dems.
Ah... I think I see a small problem.
A huge thank you Mike.
The wheels are starting to come off the Boris machine. It may take a long while before the vehicle crashes but it has started.
As for burning national issues, there are plenty available to be exploited. Let’s see if they ever get around to it.
One of the greatest betting tips I've ever seen. A huge thank you to Mike again. I shall keep saying it I'm afraid. He has brought me a big smile.
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/
If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.
I do love political hubris.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.
As do the betting markets.
Jeez. That is a shellacking.
The overall picture does look bleak, but leaving out appropriate contexts on things like per capita figures undermines your point, or even makes Boris look comparatively better than he should as in some instances it makes the outcomes of the big European nations look closer together.
The overall picture does look bleak, but leaving out appropriate contexts on things like per capita figures undermines your point, or even makes Boris look comparatively better than he should as in some Sounds like sensible policy hopefully with the effect politicians try to resolve political issues rather than rely on a court to push the political agenda, even if it is frustrating to side step the legal question.
A result like this need not mean all other areas are under threat, but reminds that you thread the needle in looking after new and old areas.
Likewise, Labour should feel more confident - some of the swagger will be punctured for the tories which will cost a small number of votes at other elections.
Not really.
"Breakthrough party eh? Guess you didn't live up to the name"
Given the LDs are pretty green, if they could tap into and retain the non revolutionary Green vote itd help enormously.
But there are lots of bear traps they seem rather more likely to walk into if they start grasping desperately for votes. A spot of woke-baiting might be populist yet likely ineffectual as a net vote-winner (while making it harder to shake off the Nasty Party image and in the long run bring down their median voter age). Pressing for release ASAP from covid restrictions has plenty of potential for backfiring - even if backbenchers don't actually set the course of policy, there's a downside risk of getting personally associated with being "soft on covid" if we do get a nasty exit wave. (Drawn-out events like this pandemic may well get remembered by voters for the last thing that happens. I think a lot of Tories hoped the vaccination success would purge previous problems from the electoral memory but the new variant and the argument the government was responsible for "letting it in" complicate the issue. IMO something underappreciated was how messy exit from restrictions was inevitably going to be - variants aside, an exit wave can only be avoided if you attain herd immunity before opening up, or release restrictions very slowly. Either way involves restrictions held in place until many are fed up with them, especially without sufficiently scary daily death tolls to reinforce their necessity.)
What might be even worse for the Conservative party nationally, and arguably for the country, is the things that *are* effective at saving Blue Remainia backsides short-term locally but clash with longer-term or nationwide strategy. Obvious ones here include tax/spend and trying to claw back cash/projects for more comfortable parts of the country rather than a focus on "levelling up". A big takeaway of this by-election is that NIMBYism is a vote winner, even if hypocritical and unprincipled, and the "threat" of development risks losing more votes than the potential political benefits from jobs/homes for young people (and their ultimate Torification) and a reduction in the cost of living (of which housing is such a huge part). If we see really concerted attempts by Remainia MPs to water down planning reform, I've no doubt this by-election result will be playing on their minds as they do so.
I’m not sure it changes too much - Tory MPs in the commuter belt know that the LDs are clearly a threat. The problem for the LDs is that when we get to the GE, voters will know that a vote for the LDs is a vote for a coalition with Labour and the SNP. And when it comes to it, I’m not sure the Cheshams, Guildfords, and Winchesters have it in them.
All credit to our OGH for keeping faith with this. And a very decent betting profit to go with it too.
The whole point about value losers is that occasionally they come in, so you win.
I'm up £300 from only betting £22.
I imagine it will be settled when their market maker is back at work this morning, but it could take until lunchtime.
The level of tactical voting (or support switching) truly did surprise.
Plus, for every bewoke suiting purchased, receive from C&A as our gift, a stylish, high-fashion yellow cravat - just the thing for a Summertime fling! Or could it be more?
I'm genuinely astonished. Can anyone think of any result since the start of the Coalition as remotely encouraging as this for the Lib Dems, who have basically been flat on the canvas since then? Richmond Park in 2016 doesn't come close (although FWIW I dare say that, if Sarah Olney had any residual concerns about her seat flipping back to the Tories again next time around, they've just evaporated.)
It's hugely encouraging, and well deserved, to see the Government get a good kicking like this. It'll also put the fear of God into a lot of Southern Tory MPs. Yes, I know general elections are obviously a very different beast to by-elections, but if the realignment is happening, as it appears to be, then you would expect this to occur in the South as well as the North.
Right up until this morning I'd have assumed that the Tories could win a comfortable majority again next time by knocking over what's left of the Red Wall at a much faster rate than they lose territory in the Home Counties. Now I'm not so sure. HOWEVER... this is one situation where the opinion polls, fickle as they are, can now come in very handy. A lot of people will be looking hard over the next few months for any sign of a Liberal Democrat revival off the back of this. If their ratings stay on the floor then it may suggest that this is just a flash in the pan; if they finally start to creep back upwards then all bets are off.
Betfair didn't move until 1.20am or thereabouts. If I'd been there I'd have figured it out over 2 hours earlier, if not during the last few days of the campaign itself, and made thousands.
Slightly sorry for Peter Fleet, who I know has wanted to be an MP for decades.
Not just a narrow win either.
Lab in 4th.
That's how the LibDems doubled their seat numbers in 1997 despite a vote share down on 1992.
Key message: don't take us for granted you arrogant so-and-so's.
This will send CCHQ into wild panic though so Tim Shipman's phone will be buzzing like mad this weekend.
Batley wasn't a sure thing for the Tories in any case and I'm an adherent of the theory that simply not having swept all before them will cost a few votes as the swagger of success takes a bit of a hit so the LDs may have saved Starmer's bacon, but I guess it's a question of if Galloway can have any impact - he stopped being meaningful awhile back, but clearly it's time for throwbacks.
> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)
> demographic & attitudinal shifts
> Brexit - leave versus remain
> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants
> Freedom Day announcement > postponement
> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)
> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons
> by-election blast OR political transformation?
Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.