The LDs take Chesham and Amersham with a 25% CON to LD swing – politicalbetting.com

Two Englands.

Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.

Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.

Mazel tov, Mike! Also cheers & slainte!!

That result means that the entirety of Con-held Remania is in play. Witney, Henley, and Maidenhead all suddenly looking very shakey.

I think the seat is a Tory hold at the next GE still

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Two Englands.

Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.

Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.

And where are labour in all of this

Praying for the return of Jeremy Corbyn?

Two thirds if the Lib Dem parliamentary party are now female.

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

Excellent result for the Lib Dems with pressure now for the conservatives in similar seats and yet this result is a disaster for labour who are looking at serious losses in 2024

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Two Englands.

Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.

Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.

And where are labour in all of this

Good question! Think the answer is, on the same side as Labour.

Certainly for Labour voters in LD-Tory marginals. But will the same be true, for Lib Dems in Labour-Tory seats?

MikeL said:

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

They were second in 2017....

Brain imaging before and after COVID-19 in UK Biobank
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v1
There is strong evidence for brain-related pathologies in COVID-19, some of which could be a consequence of viral neurotropism. The vast majority of brain imaging studies so far have focused on qualitative, gross pathology of moderate to severe cases, often carried out on hospitalised patients. It remains unknown however whether the impact of COVID-19 can be detected in milder cases, in a quantitative and automated manner, and whether this can reveal a possible mechanism for the spread of the disease. UK Biobank scanned over 40,000 participants before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, making it possible to invite back in 2021 hundreds of previously-imaged participants for a second imaging visit. Here, we studied the effects of the disease in the brain using multimodal data from 782 participants from the UK Biobank COVID-19 re-imaging study, with 394 participants having tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection between their two scans. We used structural and functional brain scans from before and after infection, to compare longitudinal brain changes between these 394 COVID-19 patients and 388 controls who were matched for age, sex, ethnicity and interval between scans. We identified significant effects of COVID-19 in the brain with a loss of grey matter in the left parahippocampal gyrus, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex and the left insula. When looking over the entire cortical surface, these results extended to the anterior cingulate cortex, supramarginal gyrus and temporal pole. We further compared COVID-19 patients who had been hospitalised (n=15) with those who had not (n=379), and while results were not significant, we found comparatively similar findings to the COVID-19 vs control group comparison, with, in addition, a greater loss of grey matter in the cingulate cortex, central nucleus of the amygdala and hippocampal cornu ammonis (all |Z| > 3). Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system. Unlike in post hoc disease studies, the availability of pre-infection imaging data helps avoid the danger of pre-existing risk factors or clinical conditions being mis-interpreted as disease effects. Since a possible entry point of the virus to the central nervous system might be via the olfactory mucosa and the olfactory bulb, these brain imaging results might be the in vivo hallmark of the spread of the disease (or the virus itself) via olfactory and gustatory pathways.

Looks like the guardian doesn’t have anyone up overnight.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MikeSmithson said:

This outcome was tipped here as good bet when the LDs were on 20/1.

I'm a grand richer and owe you, OGH, a pint for highlighting the value. Or twelve pints.

Please remember the Fund for Gormless Punters and Other Undeserving PBers - Give until it hurts!

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ping said:

Looks like the guardian doesn’t have anyone up overnight.

The Telegraph and Times are also asleep. And the Mail and Sun.

Yeah, but what about GB News???

rcs1000 said:

What's really astonishing about C&A is that you could still get on the LDs at really good odds when it must have been really clear they were going to win

And I was the idiot laying them.

Well, only for a bit, and early on in the night, but still.

Lesson learned.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MikeSmithson said:

This outcome was tipped here as good bet when the LDs were on 20/1.

I'm a grand richer and owe you, OGH, a pint for highlighting the value. Or twelve pints.

Please remember the Fund for Gormless Punters and Other Undeserving PBers - Give until it hurts!

Oh, the Matt Hancock Memorial Fund, you mean? I'll sling in a couple of bob, certainly.

A BIG thank you to Mike. I took your tip on this a few weeks ago and then I topped up again last week at what were still ridiculously good odds.

I'm a happy man.

More importantly, this sends shockwaves through the political sphere. We all know by-elections don't necessarily translate to General Elections. BUT, and it's a huge but, this does demonstrate that in going all out for the Labour red wall, the Boris tories are losing their heartlands in the south.

Game on.

ping said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ping said:

Looks like the guardian doesn’t have anyone up overnight.

The Telegraph and Times are also asleep. And the Mail and Sun.

They’re a shadow of their former selves

Edit

Ooh the guardian has woken up;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-win-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-in-stunning-upset

It’s a shame in one respect - the possibility of a photo op alongside Rishi is unlikely now to materialise.
… Boris Johnson also made a visit to the area to back Fleet earlier this month, telling local paper the Bucks Free Press (BFP): “I think he’s a superb candidate, he’s a local man, he’s lived here for a while and has a long career in business. He has a huge amount to offer parliament and the constituents.”

The prime minister highlighted hopes of turning the nearby Chilterns into a national park, and ensuring that development takes place on brownfield land, not the green belt. And he claimed that if Fleet won, he would be the tallest Tory MP. The BFP said the MP, who towered over Johnson as they toured the streets, was “around 6ft 9in”...

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ping said:

Looks like the guardian doesn’t have anyone up overnight.

The Telegraph and Times are also asleep. And the Mail and Sun.

Yeah, but what about GB News???

What about Betfair? Will the market be settled before the day shift arrives at work?

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

They were second in 2017....

It does demonstrate the real possibility of significant Lib Dem gains in the south at the next GE.
For now, of course, no more than a possibility.

All they need is a characteristic leader and a burning national issue...

Ah... I think I see a small problem.

Just checking -- I seem now to be all green on C&A on Betfair, but there's no sign yet of my (fairly substantial) profit showing up in my account. Is this just going to be because Betfair haven't yet settled the market, or should I be worried?

I mentioned the other day that peak Boris was May 25th, the day before Dom Cummings gave his testimony. That's not because that moment was decisive but because it heralded a lot of others things starting to go wrong.

The wheels are starting to come off the Boris machine. It may take a long while before the vehicle crashes but it has started.

Cocky_cockney said:

I mentioned the other day that peak Boris was May 25th, the day before Dom Cummings gave his testimony. That's not because that moment was decisive but because it heralded a lot of others things starting to go wrong.

The wheels are starting to come off the Boris machine. It may take a long while before the vehicle crashes but it has started.

The boris exit date market just got interesting.

As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/

If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.

Labour should form an alliance in the south with the LibDems. It's not impossible that they could unseat Johnson in 2023/4 if they get their act together.

Nigelb said:

As predicted, a new chassis for Bottas (and Hamilton).
https://www.racefans.net/2021/06/17/mercedes-hamilton-bottas-chassis-for-french-grand-prix/

If he still badly underperforms this weekend, the chatter about his seat will intensify.

And Pirelli confirm the tyre failures were as a result of Red Bull and Aston Martin running them at too low a pressure.
The rule tightening will almost certainly affect their performance.

Any thoughts on the impact on odds in Batley & Spen..... I have topped up a little on Labour but suspect Tory odds may (unnecessarily) lengthen....?

Sure, by-elections dont always mean much, but you still have to win them, and that's a pretty impressive result.

Roger said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:

UK Covid reality check.............

Total Cases-No 1 in Europe
New Cases-No 1 in Europe
Total Deaths-No 1 in Europe
New Deaths-No 5 in Europe

Maybe Dom knows what he's talking about?

1 - apart from France, of course. But this stat is pretty meaningless, because it depends on the amount of testing being done. I think the UK does rather more than anyone else. #positive tests <> #actual cases. Also the UK is of course one of the largest countries - per capita is a much more sensible measure.
2 - see above. The UK is doing far, far more testing. I very much doubt the UK has the most cases. Otherwise we would have the most deaths. See also the point about per capita
3 - a) Again, the per capita issue. The UK is kind of upper-mid-table per capita. We are a big country, we'd expect to have a lot of deaths.
b) in any case, these statistics are a long way from being comparable, because of different ways of recording the data. Excess deaths is a much better measure, by which we are also mid-table ish.
c) Even if the stats were recorded identically, it's very difficult to make comparisons. Has the SW had far fewer deaths than the NW because the SW has managed it better? Or is it down to issues like population density, general health, housing occupancy levels, climate (possibly), employment, etc? Of course it's the latter. And so it is between countries.
d) A pedant notes that even in raw deaths, the UK is no longer No 1 (Russia says hello.)
4) a) Again, PER CAPITA. The third largest country has the fifth largest number of new deaths isn't particularly lamentable.
b) Nor is it, as far as I can see, accurate. There's loads of European countries getting more than the UK of actual deaths, regardless of per capita.

Certainly agree that Dom was right about politicians and civil servants being woefully innumerate though.

I'm sure you know all this of course and are just trolling

Not trolling but keen that Johnson and his government is exposed as being one of the most useless and malign in recent history.

You do so ineffectively when presenting a misleading picture on cases and deaths.

The overall picture does look bleak, but leaving out appropriate contexts on things like per capita figures undermines your point, or even makes Boris look comparatively better than he should as in some

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

meanwhile, back at the ranch . . .

Politico.com - ‘Alito was just pissed’: Trump’s Supreme Court breaks down along surprising lines
Thursday’s decisions laid bare an emerging rift within the court’s conservative majority.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/17/alito-supreme-court-trump-495121

The key fault line in the Supreme Court that Donald Trump built is not the ideological clash between right and left — it’s the increasingly acrimonious conflict within the court’s now-dominant conservative wing.

Those rifts burst wide open on Thursday with two of the highest-profile decisions of the court’s current term. In both the big cases — involving Obamacare and a Catholic group refusing to vet same-sex couples as foster parents in Philadelphia — conservative justices unleashed sharp attacks that seemed aimed at their fellow GOP appointees for failing to grapple with the core issues the cases presented. . . .

Leading the charge from the right in both cases Thursday was Justice Samuel Alito, who penned caustic opinions taking his colleagues to task for issuing narrow rulings that seemed to him to be aimed at defusing political tensions rather than interpreting the law.

“After receiving more than 2,500 pages of briefing and after more than a half-year of post-argument cogitation, the Court has emitted a wisp of a decision that leaves religious liberty in a confused and vulnerable state. Those who count on this Court to stand up for the First Amendment have every right to be disappointed—as am I,” Alito wrote in the foster-care case, notwithstanding the Catholic charity’s unanimous victory. . . .

While Alito observed the court’s traditional decorum by railing at “the majority,” there was little doubt his criticism was aimed primarily at Chief Justice John Roberts, who provided the pivotal vote to uphold Obamacare nine years ago and voted Thursday to leave the law intact by concluding that the Republican-led states seeking to overturn it lacked legal standing to sue.

In the latest Obamacare case, the chief justice left authorship of the majority opinion to the court’s longest-serving justice, Stephen Breyer, but the result was vintage Roberts: a largely-technical, 7-2 decision finding a lack of standing for the states and individuals challenging the law, while pushing aside more fundamental questions about the law’s constitutionality.

Roberts was the author of the opinion the court issued Thursday finding very narrow grounds to strike down Philadelphia’s ban on Catholic Social Services due to its policy against vetting same-sex couples for foster care. . . . .

Sounds like sensible policy hopefully with the effect politicians try to resolve political issues rather than rely on a court to push the political agenda, even if it is frustrating to side step the legal question.

This result may please quite a few Tory MPs. I dont think it wholly unfair to suggest the Red Wall has been fetishised and quite a bit of talk of 'the 2019 intake' has been pretty arrogant in assuming the need to try to retain that area is the only thing that matters.

A result like this need not mean all other areas are under threat, but reminds that you thread the needle in looking after new and old areas.

Likewise, Labour should feel more confident - some of the swagger will be punctured for the tories which will cost a small number of votes at other elections.

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

They were second in 2017....

It does demonstrate the real possibility of significant Lib Dem gains in the south at the next GE.
For now, of course, no more than a possibility.

I'm surprised they didn't do better in 2019, and it's a long way to 2023/4, but break through in the south and you crack open a lot of possibilities.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

MikeSmithson said:

This outcome was tipped here as good bet when the LDs were on 20/1.

I'm a grand richer and owe you, OGH, a pint for highlighting the value. Or twelve pints.

Please remember the Fund for Gormless Punters and Other Undeserving PBers - Give until it hurts!

Oh, the Matt Hancock Memorial Fund, you mean? I'll sling in a couple of bob, certainly.

Hancock will be pleased - Boris wont want to pick internal fights right now so he can start maneuvering to not be reshuffled out.

Times like these are a reminder that while the LDs have been down for a while, and things remain tough (still need really big swings to win in most places), the Greens really cannot touch them as genuine contenders, despite the growing strength of the Green brand.

Given the LDs are pretty green, if they could tap into and retain the non revolutionary Green vote itd help enormously.

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

They were second in 2017....

It does demonstrate the real possibility of significant Lib Dem gains in the south at the next GE.
For now, of course, no more than a possibility.

I think the LibDems will do a fairly good job of squeezing Labour in marginals next time around. I wouldn't like to be the conservative MP in Guilford.

I think a potentially really significant impact of this is Tory MPs in Remainia getting that squeaky bum feeling. If the end result of that is them telling the leadership to GET A GRIP FGS this might be no bad thing either for Conservative election prospects or the country as a whole.

But there are lots of bear traps they seem rather more likely to walk into if they start grasping desperately for votes. A spot of woke-baiting might be populist yet likely ineffectual as a net vote-winner (while making it harder to shake off the Nasty Party image and in the long run bring down their median voter age). Pressing for release ASAP from covid restrictions has plenty of potential for backfiring - even if backbenchers don't actually set the course of policy, there's a downside risk of getting personally associated with being "soft on covid" if we do get a nasty exit wave. (Drawn-out events like this pandemic may well get remembered by voters for the last thing that happens. I think a lot of Tories hoped the vaccination success would purge previous problems from the electoral memory but the new variant and the argument the government was responsible for "letting it in" complicate the issue. IMO something underappreciated was how messy exit from restrictions was inevitably going to be - variants aside, an exit wave can only be avoided if you attain herd immunity before opening up, or release restrictions very slowly. Either way involves restrictions held in place until many are fed up with them, especially without sufficiently scary daily death tolls to reinforce their necessity.)

What might be even worse for the Conservative party nationally, and arguably for the country, is the things that *are* effective at saving Blue Remainia backsides short-term locally but clash with longer-term or nationwide strategy. Obvious ones here include tax/spend and trying to claw back cash/projects for more comfortable parts of the country rather than a focus on "levelling up". A big takeaway of this by-election is that NIMBYism is a vote winner, even if hypocritical and unprincipled, and the "threat" of development risks losing more votes than the potential political benefits from jobs/homes for young people (and their ultimate Torification) and a reduction in the cost of living (of which housing is such a huge part). If we see really concerted attempts by Remainia MPs to water down planning reform, I've no doubt this by-election result will be playing on their minds as they do so.

MyBurningEars said:

rcs1000 said:

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

MikeL said:

The LDs are not showing any sign of a breakthrough that will seriously impact the next GE.

We've seen similar results many times before in by-elections where LD in 2nd place to Con.

Next GE is Con v Lab as usual.

And Lab has just gone from 12.8% to 1.6%.

They were second in 2017....

It does demonstrate the real possibility of significant Lib Dem gains in the south at the next GE.
For now, of course, no more than a possibility.

I think the LibDems will do a fairly good job of squeezing Labour in marginals next time around. I wouldn't like to be the conservative MP in Guilford.

I think a potentially really significant impact of this is Tory MPs in Remainia getting that squeaky bum feeling. If the end result of that is them telling the leadership to GET A GRIP FGS this might be no bad thing either for Conservative election prospects or the country as a whole.

But there are lots of bear traps they seem rather more likely to walk into if they start grasping desperately for votes. A spot of woke-baiting might be populist yet likely ineffectual as a net vote-winner (while making it harder to shake off the Nasty Party image and in the long run bring down their median voter age). Pressing for release ASAP from covid restrictions has plenty of potential for backfiring - even if backbenchers don't actually set the course of policy, there's a downside risk of getting personally associated with being "soft on covid" if we do get a nasty exit wave. (Drawn-out events like this pandemic may well get remembered by voters for the last thing that happens. I think a lot of Tories hoped the vaccination success would purge previous problems from the electoral memory but the new variant and the argument the government was responsible for "letting it in" complicate the issue. IMO something underappreciated was how messy exit from restrictions was inevitably going to be - variants aside, an exit wave can only be avoided if you attain herd immunity before opening up, or release restrictions very slowly. Either way involves restrictions held in place until many are fed up with them, especially without sufficiently scary daily death tolls to reinforce their necessity.)

What might be even worse for the Conservative party nationally, and arguably for the country, is the things that *are* effective at saving Blue Remainia backsides short-term locally but clash with longer-term or nationwide strategy. Obvious ones here include tax/spend and trying to claw back cash/projects for more comfortable parts of the country rather than a focus on "levelling up". A big takeaway of this by-election is that NIMBYism is a vote winner, even if hypocritical and unprincipled, and the "threat" of development risks losing more votes than the potential political benefits from jobs/homes for young people (and their ultimate Torification) and a reduction in the cost of living (of which housing is such a huge part). If we see really concerted attempts by Remainia MPs to water down planning reform, I've no doubt this by-election result will be playing on their minds as they do so.

Yes, indeed. Since the last crash many areas of the country have done badly but many have done well. The largely white, middle class, southern seats outside of London have done pretty well and don’t want to really give up any of those gains. I think this May be the first nail in the Coffin of the levelling up agenda. One of the few things Boris has got right is the need to build more homes where people want to live. Give youNo people a stake in society and It makes sense politically too. NIMBYism is here to stay. The Lib Dem party was very effective in exploiting it.

Fishing said:

Reminds me that re-election are funny things. It's clearly not going to be repeated in the general election, but still an excellent result for the LDs. I imagine their share will tick up in the national polls following the excellent publicity.

Yes it will, and I,expect it will harm the greens recent decent polling numbers too. Recent polls,have shown the greens doing well, in some cases ahead of the Lib Dem’s. I expect this result will be used by Lib Dem canvassers to bang the point home that only they can beat the Tories in certain areas.

Wow, quite the win for the yellows that. Well done to Mike and everyone else who backed them.

I’m not sure it changes too much - Tory MPs in the commuter belt know that the LDs are clearly a threat. The problem for the LDs is that when we get to the GE, voters will know that a vote for the LDs is a vote for a coalition with Labour and the SNP. And when it comes to it, I’m not sure the Cheshams, Guildfords, and Winchesters have it in them.

GF2 said:

Just checking -- I seem now to be all green on C&A on Betfair, but there's no sign yet of my (fairly substantial) profit showing up in my account. Is this just going to be because Betfair haven't yet settled the market, or should I be worried?

They can be a bit lazy.

I imagine it will be settled when their market maker is back at work this morning, but it could take until lunchtime.

Step into Summer . . . with a brand new wardrobe courtesy of Chesham and Amersham. High-street fashion for professional-class voters who want to send a bold, new message from the Chiltern greenbelt to the swamps of Westminster.

Plus, for every bewoke suiting purchased, receive from C&A as our gift, a stylish, high-fashion yellow cravat - just the thing for a Summertime fling! Or could it be more?

There can't have been that many statisticians or gamblers at the count.

Betfair didn't move until 1.20am or thereabouts. If I'd been there I'd have figured it out over 2 hours earlier, if not during the last few days of the campaign itself, and made thousands.

Well done to Mike and TSE

Not just a narrow win either.

Lab in 4th.

kle4 said:

I had rather scoffed at the notion someone raised that Labour might come below Reform, but though it did not happen clearly it was not as silly a prospect as I had thought.

The level of tactical voting (or support switching) truly did surprise.

Goodness, in all the excitement over the headline result I hadn't noticed that Labour had turned into a footnote party. Imagine the panic if they now go on and lose Batley as well?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Two Englands.

Hartlepool on the one hand, Chesham and Amersham on the other. One going Red to Blue, the other Blue to Yellow.

Changing economics, demographics, attitudes, with boosts both ways (but in different directions) from Boris.

And where are labour in all of this

In the SKS shit.

Factors in Chesham & Amersham 2021

> traditional voting patterns (partisanship & turnout)

> demographic & attitudinal shifts

> Brexit - leave versus remain

> COVID - vacillations, lockdowns, vaccinations, restrictions, variants

> Freedom Day announcement > postponement

> candidate selection pro & con (including personal vote of late Dame Cheryl Gillan MP)

> HS2 and housing pros and esp. cons

> by-election blast OR political transformation?

Except for HS2, all of the above were also apply to Hartlepool AND Batley & Spen. Just in different ways & degrees.