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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says get on Andy Burnham as EdM’s successor – it might be a good bet
Longstanding PBers will know that Henry G Manson’s has a great record with his tips on anything to do with LAB. He was dead right on EdM in 2010 and his guidance has proved pretty good over the years.
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Probably not the worst 100-1 shot, but Burnham is better value at 14s.
David Miliband @ 20-1.... 9.86% of cash on him - Arf !
Betfair Sportsbook have Andy DURNHAM at 16/1...
Hunt 16/1
Umunna 7/1
Burnham 10/1
I've also noticed that we have taken four bets on Nick Palmer at 500/1.
O/T Here is a short run-down of the most likely seats in Wales to change hands in 2015:
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/the-11-seats-in-wales-that-could-change-hands-in-2015/
As an aside, I think Burnham is easily provoked and makes some silly threats.
Who can forget his threat to sue Jeremy Hunt?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/07/jeremy-hunt-claims-against-andy-burnham
I'm voting Satan in that election every time.
When will Scousers realise that the people that pushed and crushed their fellow Liverpudlians to death were from Liverpool..no-one else
Doesn't fit in with last nights YouGuv narrative.
Still, I'm not the target market, and business is business. I'm on from a while back at 25/1, but at 14/1 it's still a good bet, and HenryG is a good judge of matters Labour.
Andy Burnham is currently a leading candidate but who is to say those of the younger generation,including any number of impressive Labour women,may eventually hold sway?
Unless they are are old or ill in which case, f*k'em, they can lie in their own filth until thirst, starvation or illness gets them.
Will Burnham be voted for, knowing how the Conservatives will use his NHS history against Labour if he was leader?
Still, he has one proud boast: he put in place the mechanism which led to the superbly successful privatisation of Hinchingbrooke Hospital.
And in Tower Hamlets they are a significant swing voting bloc.
Looking at the list of runners and riders, what a depressing set of candidates, same as the Tories. We don't have a real leader, a real stand out individual that ticks all boxes required among the leading ranks of any party.
I always find this revisionist history about David Miliband very strange. If only he was leader, he is better than Cameron, Ed, Clegg, etc. He was s##t in government, Mandelson had to dig him out of holes, he was weak and spineless in terms of dealing with Brown. Burnham is in exactly the same category in my book.
The only leading politician that came out of late Blair / Brown era with his reputation enhanced is Darling, and he isn't leader material, even if he wanted to be.
This sort of open market (like "next Pope") is IMHO best left to the bookies, especially because if you want to see your money back in less than 6-11 years, you have to factor in the probability of a vacancy arising in 2015, which even Tory optimists would concede is <100%, and by the time it does happen there could be lots of other plausible candidate. In general, leading figures will be too short for that reason - if the vacancy only appears later, they'll be getting on a bit and others will have come to the fore - e.g. Stella Creasey probably wouldn't get it next year, but in 2020 or 2025...?
http://www.greenbenchesuk.com/2012/11/superbug-outbreak-jumps-200-at-1st.html
More importantly for the country (as having a competent centre left party matters) is that EVERY SINGLE ONE of the Labour front bench (leader included) is complete and utter blancmange. Some may not like the Tories alot but Osborne, May, Hammond and others are pretty capable. The lefties are student union right-on empty heads to man. Umuna? Harman? Burnham? Hunt? ..sniggers...please, please choose Burnham or Umuna... :-)
The only slight caveat I myself credit to the 'every single one' comment would be Mr & Mrs Balls. They're both hideous choices in their own ways but are not quite so manifestly lightweight as the rest. Wrong, but impressively so. That doesn't bode well either.
Gordon Brown ruined his country and his party. The vindictive useless gobshite.
Stafford should see that he never gets to leader but it is Labour so it might be worth a small flutter. Cooper should be odds on though there isn't really a challenger as I can see.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2697126/Vain-British-jihadists-fighting-Syria-tweeting-stop-beards-getting-split-ends-miss-hair-conditioner.html
"Doesn't fit in with last nights YouGuv narrative."
Two polls this week ICM Con in front Populus Tories Level yet very little mention of them, I've given up worrying about the bias shown towards Labour by Mr Smithson. I hardly post any more.
I blame Cosmopolitan and Hello magazines…
And TBH, I've almost totally erased Gordon from my memory banks - I have to really try to remember him. My distant recollections appear to all be embarrassing gaffes such as:
- Walking into a cupboard with Al Gore
- Obama Beach and being booed by veterans
- That R2 interview with Jeremy Vine post Mrs Duffy
- The YouTube video where he appears to have St Vitus Dance
- No More Boom And Bust
- I Saved The World
.... there's so many of them to choose from.
My sense is that most Labour activists have lukewarm respect for Yvette, but there's little affection for her in the way there is for Andy. And I don't think people will really be swayed by the argument that it's time for a female leader just for the sake of having a female leader, either. As for Chuka Umunna, I'm surprised he even scored as well as he did, most activists I know think he's a substance-free prat, despite how loved he is by the London chatterati/thinktank set.
(I think we can assume a landslide is unlikely either way leading to a generation change).
On the upside one of our IT team (who I know) has dodged the bullet in the most amazing way - having had him and his wife/kid moved to a later flight as they were overbooked! I can't imagine how he feels.
Secondly, I honestly think Labour members have started changing their mind about what they actually want from the leader. Last time there was a bit of snobbishness towards Burnham, from what I remember even some people who said they liked him and what he was saying feared he'd look too "amateurish" or "not credible" because he didn't sound intellectual enough and didn't use clever-sounding enough words. But since then, people have realised the New Labour-type professionalised robots are exactly the type of thing Labour needs to get away from, and go towards people who are more human.
He keeps on smearing people and then having to apologise.
Including Lord Ashcroft
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100194054/another-glorious-apology-from-dr-eoin-clarke/
If they decide to go down the route next of a leader more in touch with the working man or woman they need to find better than Burnham. Even on the current front bench, which has a vacuum of talent at present Labour have better than Burnham.
Lizzy Vaid (@LizzyVaid)
18/07/2014 14:16
Very pleased to announce that tickets for @UKIP National Conference 2014 are now on sale at ukip.org/doncaster. #ukip2014
This can mean that one is a bumbling fool and the other merely not.
Thus - Wilson beat Heath because Heath was patently useless.
Thatcher beat Callaghan because Callaghan's government had failed.
Thatcher beat Foot because he was a stupid old fool.
Thatcher beat Kinnock because he was a total lightweight.
Major beat Kinnock because he was a relative lightweight.
Blair beat Major because his government appeared inept.
Blair beat Hague because Hague reminded of Major.
Blair beat Howard because Howard reminded of Major..
Cameron beat Brown because the latter was vicious and bonkers.
I think the Tory would have made the better PM in every case above except Heath / Wislon, where Heath would simply have been differently appalling. But I speak of general perceptions, wisdom of crowds, etc. Kinnock as PM was such an utterly ludicrous notion that he was sure to lose unless the Tories had somehow found a way to elect Menzies Campbell to lead them.
By aligning Russia with rebels in Donetsk and supplying them with powerful anti aircraft missiles, he has incurred the wrath of all the countries with their nationalities on board the crashed plane plus air travellers around the World, including Russia.
Governments in Germany and other countries who previously were reluctant to apply sanctions against Russia, will now be under pressure from their electors to impose the sanctions.
I really struggle to see anyone on the Labour frontbench who's even remotely "in touch with the working man and woman" apart from Burnham (unless you count Alan Johnson). And I say that as a Labour supporter.
You really think Burnham is in touch, in my view he is as careerist politician with as limited an outlook as the rest of them, some of the others though are much sharper.
People do care about Burnham's past and should he rise to leadership it would come to prominence, what his performance in the Commons shows is his limitations and weakness under fire, Miliband get's enough stick and rightly, even from his own side but Burnham is worse.
1. Supplied advanced weapons to the rebels
2. Confiscated the black boxes
3. Moved the 'guilty' missile launchers back onto Russian territory
4. Said the guilty party is the government of the country where it happened
Hmmm.....would not have been my approach to winning an international hearts and minds campaign!
"This week, David Cameron should have decided for himself who was best person to be Education Secretary, not whom the public liked or disliked. Instead he surrendered that judgement because a general election is just nine months away. His decision might backfire, if it ends up being seen as a craven abdication of leadership."
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/cabinet-reshuffle-should-the-polls-decide-politics-michael-gove-education-secretary
Crackers.
Huzzah.
Silvio's convictions and the bar on him holding elected office have been overturned.
---------------------------------
We need a thread on this as it's all change, or will be in Italy.
No sooner do I say it and voila, a new thread appears!!!
Who cares about Burnham? Henry G. Manson is highlighting a bummer. If Burnham a known evasive slippery eel, if there ever was one, is elected Labour head, I will publicly eat my bacon butty.
When he comes back on watch the England price drift.
Filled up
Toying with the idea of an early qualifying bet.
Betting PostBacked Rosberg at just over 3 with Betfair for pole, hedged at 1.5.
He and Hamilton are practically identical on time and the commentators said the German made a mistake in P2, but for which he would've been faster overall.
Edited extra bit: for this sort of bet, which is clearly a tip but not part of the articles I write, I'll not include it when calculating profit/loss, unless I happen to repeat it in the pre-qualifying piece.
Not that easy to hide.
The risk of a man-portable Stinger type missile attack against a plane landing or taking off has been a risk that Govt. have been aware of for some time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Mombasa_attacks
I douby Afghanistan has any high altitude anti-aircraft missiles and while Syria does no planes are flying over it at the moment.
Quotes like
"co-ordinated, deliberate and sustained action to introduce an intolerant and agressive Ialamist ethos into some schools in the City"
"Left unchecked it would confine school children within an intolerant inward-looking monoculture that would several limit their participation in the life of modern Britain"
"In theory academies are accountable to the Sec of State, but in practice the accountability can almost amount to benign neglect ..."
A very hot potato and strong test for Nick Morgan in her new lob at the Dept of Education.
Serious questions of the council to be asked here.
Agree with others than Burnham would probably be an effective and popular leader with the public though.
Not only does he come across as a fully paid up member of the human race, he has the ability to articulate a popular / populist left of centre politics in non-scary everyday language. Something that's desperately needed in these post-banker crash / post Tory Austerity days of increasing unfairness and inequality.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28368564
What an absolute load of boll##ks article this is...It goes from basically dismissing the "Trojan Horse" plot as a few friends trying to influence schools agenda, to its being all Gove fault. And the over-simplistic solution, well we need to put back in place all local oversight of a "normal" school i.e back to the status-quo.
The only problem is as we know not all the schools were academies, and the local oversight would be something to do with Birmingham City Council / LEA, who has tried to at best ignore it at worst whitewash all of this from start to finish.
If Gove hadn't stuck to his guns and got a real hard hitting person to lead the investigation (remember the outcry from some about how he would upset people), all we would have got was this nonsense review from Birmingham City Council.
Seek help or consider posting somewhere else more sympathetic to your unpleasant views.
Policy editor, BBC Newsnight"
David Willet's ex advisor.