politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 campaign will come down to the party with the w

Flightpath said:

isam said:

Arguing that a party that has massively improved its vote share in every recent by election, has just won a national election for the first time, and has never had more members, is somehow "toxic" for voters has to be the biggest "lalalala I don't want to hear, I'm not listening" in the history of political debate

I put a question mark at the end of my - well ummm... question.
The fact of Newark was that people from other parties voted against UKIP and chose the Tories. We will gloss over the motives behind voting UKIP, there are many from the banal through the bogus and on to the beastly - what is important is that the extreme right wing views (or if you cannot face that then the extreme right wing reputation) of UKIP prompted many from the mainstream to chose the Tories as the best alternative to prevent 'an Orpington'.

Quite a a statement - wrong in every salient point.

Holland 2-0 Brazil - hopefully not a repeat of Germany match

JackW said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. W, I thought Thorpe had been out of the closet for years?

Apparently not. In his recent autobiography he specifically denied any breast stroking !!

He's also suffered considerably from depression, that I would have thought is probably repression related. Hopefully he find some peace once the fuss has died down, although that will probably be some time with Thorpe's huge reputation in Oz.

As a former Liberal activist, who hadn't been following this thread, having had a few days away from my computer, this brought be up very sharply as I scold down.

Until I realised it wasn't THAT Thorpe!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Freggles, that's a bit unexpected. Is he particularly pro-EU?

I think he is pro for the usual economic reasons. I think he views their immigration stance as racist. I'll have to ask him why exactly, given that in the past he has argued that 'affirmative action'- what we call positive discrimination - is just discrimination.
I would think of myself as more liberal than him but I am more sympathetic to UKIP. Perhaps the party messaging is poor, but I get the benefit of speaking to actual Kippers online?

Mike and Robert Smithson.

You have mail.

Thank you.

JackW said:

Mike and Robert Smithson.

You have mail.

Thank you.

Did you used to work for AOL... ;-)

Easterross said:

Evening all. I wonder how many people on PB thought "lightning couldn't strike twice" and bet real money on Brazil beating Holland?

I backed Netherlands 1-0 up @ 1.88 - Seemed a decent enough price.

In Newark the Lib Dems went Labour/Conservative, some Labour went Conservative and DNV/Conservatives went UKIP methinks.

Pulpstar said:

Easterross said:

Evening all. I wonder how many people on PB thought "lightning couldn't strike twice" and bet real money on Brazil beating Holland?

I backed Netherlands 1-0 up @ 1.88 - Seemed a decent enough price.

I didn't think Brazil could bounce back easily from such a humiliation, even with Silva back.

I put some on Netherlands +1 Handicap at 11/2 pre match.

Freggles said:

I have a friend who has never been that interested in politics - enough to be informed and know the big policies, but not enough to, say, post on a political betting blog.
He has some fairly socially conservative views and is very anti-PC. Yet to my surprise he hates UKIP and the fact that they won the EU elections has spurred him on to actually want to be an activist, he's currently debating which party to align himself to.

Anecdote over.

The same is true of so many people with little interest in politics. Their thoughts are aligned to the only party whose policies make any sort of sense (it used to be the Conservatives), but the 'toxicity' leads them astray. Years of unhappiness in a party that despises his views await your friend, before the penny finally drops.

In a way it's good for UKIP because it speaks of a massive and growing pool of potential voters and supporters if they can 'break through', but the general dislike and distrust of them and their agenda that is the result of the MSM carpet bombing they received in the euros is very real and badly needs diffusing.

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Easterross said:

Evening all. I wonder how many people on PB thought "lightning couldn't strike twice" and bet real money on Brazil beating Holland?

I backed Netherlands 1-0 up @ 1.88 - Seemed a decent enough price.

I didn't think Brazil could bounce back easily from such a humiliation, even with Silva back.

I put some on Netherlands +1 Handicap at 11/2 pre match.

-1 I would have thought

Doh! yes that is right.

Shucks I will miss Weathercock's predictions of 50+ seats for UKIP ^_~

Anyway Mike's rules, Mike's site !

OldKingCole said:

As a former Liberal activist ... this brought me up very sharply as I scold down.

LOL!

I think that sentence is rather more revealing about Liberal Democrats attitudes to everyone else than you intended!

JackW/Isam - This conversation is now closed.

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I'm thinking how I would tackle this for UKIP. The most useless thing a marketer can do is try to change a perception -the mind is like cement; once a perception is formed, it's nigh on impossible to change it. So if people think UKIP is racist, you don't (sadly) try and convince them that they aren't. You go with the grain. So off the top of my head, I think the best strategy is to get a new leader. Someone like Suzanne Evans. Nigel obviously would still be hugely important. You need to feed people a story that agrees with their perception 'they were racist old tory boys -now they're not'. You then work to establish Suzanne's public image whilst you are still dealing with wet cement in people's minds. And you're going for something much softer, much more inclusive. I think this would actually free Nigel up much more to engage in campaigns much more, without worrying if they make him seem racist.

I wouldn't worry. UKIPs vote share is going up and up, and Farage is not seen as less popular than the party. It is only scared loyalists from other parties that are convinced UKIP have a problem.. and all they do is talk to each other on here while UKIP take their voters in the real world

isam said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I'm thinking how I would tackle this for UKIP. The most useless thing a marketer can do is try to change a perception -the mind is like cement; once a perception is formed, it's nigh on impossible to change it. So if people think UKIP is racist, you don't (sadly) try and convince them that they aren't. You go with the grain. So off the top of my head, I think the best strategy is to get a new leader. Someone like Suzanne Evans. Nigel obviously would still be hugely important. You need to feed people a story that agrees with their perception 'they were racist old tory boys -now they're not'. You then work to establish Suzanne's public image whilst you are still dealing with wet cement in people's minds. And you're going for something much softer, much more inclusive. I think this would actually free Nigel up much more to engage in campaigns much more, without worrying if they make him seem racist.

I wouldn't worry. UKIPs vote share is going up and up, and Farage is not seen as less popular than the party. It is only scared loyalists from other parties that are convinced UKIP have a problem.. and all they do is talk to each other on here while UKIP take their voters in the real world

I remember Farage doing an interview in which he said if there was an in/out referendum he shouldn't and wouldn't be the lead guy on it because of his public image etc.

Which (given that that's UKIP's central aim) would count as a Farage problem I think.

EDIT:

I've only found a summary of the interview where Farage says it shouldn't be him because he's a warrior not a figurehead.

I can't find the full text so I may be misremembering if he explicitly talked about public perception.

Summary here.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/exclusive-nigel-farage-doesnt-want-to-lead-the-out-campaign/

Pulpstar said:

Shucks I will miss Weathercock's predictions of 50+ seats for UKIP ^_~

Anyway Mike's rules, Mike's site !

So I had a bit of a look for your previous GE seat predictions, but could only find your most recent one in late June!

corporeal said:

isam said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I'm thinking how I would tackle this for UKIP. The most useless thing a marketer can do is try to change a perception -the mind is like cement; once a perception is formed, it's nigh on impossible to change it. So if people think UKIP is racist, you don't (sadly) try and convince them that they aren't. You go with the grain. So off the top of my head, I think the best strategy is to get a new leader. Someone like Suzanne Evans. Nigel obviously would still be hugely important. You need to feed people a story that agrees with their perception 'they were racist old tory boys -now they're not'. You then work to establish Suzanne's public image whilst you are still dealing with wet cement in people's minds. And you're going for something much softer, much more inclusive. I think this would actually free Nigel up much more to engage in campaigns much more, without worrying if they make him seem racist.

I wouldn't worry. UKIPs vote share is going up and up, and Farage is not seen as less popular than the party. It is only scared loyalists from other parties that are convinced UKIP have a problem.. and all they do is talk to each other on here while UKIP take their voters in the real world

I remember Farage doing an interview in which he said if there was an in/out referendum he shouldn't and wouldn't be the lead guy on it because of his public image etc.

Which (given that that's UKIP's central aim) would count as a Farage problem I think.

Try and imagine a world where Nigel Farage was good for getting votes for UKIP but less good at leading a campaign that requires over 50% of the country on side

That's the one we live in

From the Sunday Times

Officials in Brussels and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office have advised Cameron that the appointment of a woman as the UK’s commissioner in Brussels will give Britain a better chance of landing the plum portfolio.

Jean-Claude Juncker, who was appointed president of the European Commission despite Cameron’s objections, has indicated that he will look favourably on a female candidate. Sources say Cameron’s closest aides and advisers have considered Baroness Hogg, the former head of John Major’s policy unit, Andrea Leadsom, the Treasury minister, and Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland secretary, for the post.

The Sunday Times is also reporting that George Osborne is trying to persuade Dave to bring back Liam Fox back into the cabinet.

No, George, just no!

Iv'e always wondered, is this site like the ex bankruptee drug sellers site. There are only actually a small number of posters but they all have loads of different ID's.

Hi Tim!

compouter2 said:

Iv'e always wondered, is this site like the ex bankruptee drug sellers site. There are only actually a small number of posters but they all have loads of different ID's.

Hi Tim!

We are tim.

corporeal said:

isam said:

corporeal said:

isam said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I'm thinking how I would tackle this for UKIP. The most useless thing a marketer can do is try to change a perception -the mind is like cement; once a perception is formed, it's nigh on impossible to change it. So if people think UKIP is racist, you don't (sadly) try and convince them that they aren't. You go with the grain. So off the top of my head, I think the best strategy is to get a new leader. Someone like Suzanne Evans. Nigel obviously would still be hugely important. You need to feed people a story that agrees with their perception 'they were racist old tory boys -now they're not'. You then work to establish Suzanne's public image whilst you are still dealing with wet cement in people's minds. And you're going for something much softer, much more inclusive. I think this would actually free Nigel up much more to engage in campaigns much more, without worrying if they make him seem racist.

I wouldn't worry. UKIPs vote share is going up and up, and Farage is not seen as less popular than the party. It is only scared loyalists from other parties that are convinced UKIP have a problem.. and all they do is talk to each other on here while UKIP take their voters in the real world

I remember Farage doing an interview in which he said if there was an in/out referendum he shouldn't and wouldn't be the lead guy on it because of his public image etc.

Which (given that that's UKIP's central aim) would count as a Farage problem I think.

Try and imagine a world where Nigel Farage was good for getting votes for UKIP but less good at leading a campaign that requires over 50% of the country on side

That's the one we live in

Out of curiosity, how much of UKIP's rise do you think is down to Farage vs all the other factors?

I would find that hard to quantify to be honest. I'd say he is a net positive for the party. People in Thurrock were weeping when he visited, calling him a God, and worth his weight in gold. I don't hear that kind of nonsense/praise of other party leaders.

I guess you might say no other leader is hated like Farage but look at the shit Cameron and Ed get from their rivals, and I don't think it would stand up.

His detractors say UKIP is a one man band that would fall apart without him, so I guess that is kind of an answer to your question

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Priti Patel is also tipped for a ministerial position.

Whilst Anna Soubry and Penny Mordurant will be given more media responsibilities.

I did quite enjoy Penny's Loyal Address.

So did I.

That's the kind of speech I'd give.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Priti Patel is also tipped for a ministerial position.

Whilst Anna Soubry and Penny Mordurant will be given more media responsibilities.

Priti should be next Mayor of London or next Tory leader

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

Iv'e always wondered, is this site like the ex bankruptee drug sellers site. There are only actually a small number of posters but they all have loads of different ID's.

Hi Tim!

We are tim.

Tim was Spartacus in a previous life.

Tim is legion.

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

Iv'e always wondered, is this site like the ex bankruptee drug sellers site. There are only actually a small number of posters but they all have loads of different ID's.

Hi Tim!

We are tim.

Tim was Spartacus in a previous life.

Tim is legion.

You mean a swine or a devil?

3-0 Holland - Brazil

"Brazilian fans looked miffed".....a bit more than miffed. They look like Gideons dad must have looked when young Gideon told him he had just got a job folding returned towels at Selfridges.

Wow, now my post asking if other posts have been removed has been removed. It can only be a matter of minutes before this post is removed. If I post another one asking about the removal of posts asking about the removal of posts asking about the removal of posts will that also be removed? I expect so, and its not as if I have actually said anything to offend or criticise, I only asked a genuine question.

HurstLlama said:

Wow, now my post asking if other posts have been removed has been removed. It can only be a matter of minutes before this post is removed. If I post another one asking about the removal of posts asking about the removal of posts asking about the removal of posts will that also be removed? I expect so, and its not as if I have actually said anything to offend or criticise, I only asked a genuine question.

Too scared to make any jokes about it

But it reminds me of Cool Hand Luke a bit

@HurstLlama -- check your vanilla messages!

compouter2 said:

"Brazilian fans looked miffed".....a bit more than miffed. They look like Gideons dad must have looked when young Gideon told him he had just got a job folding returned towels at Selfridges.

Probably a lot different from his look when he was told Gideon was the most popular politician in the country! ;-)

Well Sunday People is making a huge claim. I presume they have evidence to back it up.

PEOPLE: Thatcher 'child abuse cover-up'

"She let Minister off hook over sex attacks on boys"

compouter2 said:

This must be the worst Brazil team ever......and they finish 4th.

4th? Like our very own Yellow team?

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

As a marketer, I'm thinking how I would tackle this for UKIP. The most useless thing a marketer can do is try to change a perception -the mind is like cement; once a perception is formed, it's nigh on impossible to change it. So if people think UKIP is racist, you don't (sadly) try and convince them that they aren't. You go with the grain. So off the top of my head, I think the best strategy is to get a new leader. Someone like Suzanne Evans. Nigel obviously would still be hugely important. You need to feed people a story that agrees with their perception 'they were racist old tory boys -now they're not'. You then work to establish Suzanne's public image whilst you are still dealing with wet cement in people's minds. And you're going for something much softer, much more inclusive. I think this would actually free Nigel up much more to engage in campaigns much more, without worrying if they make him seem racist.

Most of the people who consider UKIP racist are the ones that would consider any right wing party that campaigns on immigration racist. A new leader wouldn't change that. UKIP should just carry on doing what they're doing: kicking out members that turn out to be racist while maintaining their highly popular policies on immigration and the EU.

What was particularly short-sighted by the Tories was smearing UKIP so much. It's highly likely that UKIP are here to stay, and they make better natural bedfellows with the Tories than the other two parties do. Thus when the inevitable coalition government or merger happens, the Tories will be tarred with association with the toxic image they helped create. The fact they were working with the Guardian to fight against people pushing conservative arguments shows how the Tories don't have any principles any more.

Your second point may well be true, and I've stated before my firm belief that the genesis of UKIP represents the death of The Conservative Party -how many years this will take I don't know.

However, your strategy is based on truth and logic. Mine is based on perception. In politics, as in marketing, perception trumps truth. I personally know people who agree we must exit the EU, but shy away from UKIP because of the constant stream of unpleasant stories.

There is no doubt that UKIP face a very determined and very effective campaign, no longer to dissuade their supporters away from them, but to smear the whole bunch so much that they become a 'tea party' style vocal but despised minority who no 'right thinking' person would vote for. It doesn't matter to the main parties how incensed Ukippers get by the smears, as long as they work on everyone else. Nigel can get somewhere playing along with this angry minority thing -it may even get UKIP into parliament, but I don't think it will form a nationwide consensus on the need for our exit from the EU.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like there's an ICM poll on the indy ref and it's not good news for Yes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsYA0UPCQAEYXsR.jpg

Hm, may only be a no-change poll, as it only really says that Yes are running out of time.

Yeah, the word stalls has a few interpretations.

Much better than any poll showing motion towards Yes, I'll concede!

I'm sure some Nats will say it is good news for Yes.

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

Shucks I will miss Weathercock's predictions of 50+ seats for UKIP ^_~

Anyway Mike's rules, Mike's site !

So I had a bit of a look for your previous GE seat predictions, but could only find your most recent one in late June!

I've said Labour minority for a couple of years ^_~

I take it Basil is still on goalpost duty seeing Murdochs underlings haven't tweeted about a poll of seismic proportions.

compouter2 said:

I take it Basil is still on goalpost duty seeing Murdochs underlings haven't tweeted about a poll of seismic proportions.

They never do for the Sunday Times.

I think this is going to be the story of the weekend

Margaret Thatcher personally covered up child abuse ­allegations made against one of her senior ministers, according to explosive new claims.

The Sunday People reports Tory Prime Minister is said to have held a high-powered meeting with the rising star, who was being tipped for promotion, and told him: “You have to clean up your sexual act.”

It followed an allegation that the minister had sexually abused young boys at the home of one of his political allies in 1982.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/margaret-thatcher-personally-covered-up-3848836?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Nate Silver gave Brazil a 71% chance of beating the Netherlands tonight.

Is he the worst football predictor ever ?

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

"Brazilian fans looked miffed".....a bit more than miffed. They look like Gideons dad must have looked when young Gideon told him he had just got a job folding returned towels at Selfridges.

Probably a lot different from his look when he was told Gideon was the most popular politician in the country! ;-)

Parents, always telling their kids porkies to boost their ego and make them feel good.

Most parents yes, but luckily for him a reputable polling organisations went forth and asked the electorate.

Who did they ask, bankers? Generally he is about as popular as a fart in a lift.

People must really like farts in lifts then. ;-)

Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

"Brazilian fans looked miffed".....a bit more than miffed. They look like Gideons dad must have looked when young Gideon told him he had just got a job folding returned towels at Selfridges.

Probably a lot different from his look when he was told Gideon was the most popular politician in the country! ;-)

Parents, always telling their kids porkies to boost their ego and make them feel good.

Most parents yes, but luckily for him a reputable polling organisations went forth and asked the electorate.

Who did they ask, bankers? Generally he is about as popular as a fart in a lift.

People must really like farts in lifts then. ;-)

PB Hodges?

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

RobD said:

compouter2 said:

"Brazilian fans looked miffed".....a bit more than miffed. They look like Gideons dad must have looked when young Gideon told him he had just got a job folding returned towels at Selfridges.

Probably a lot different from his look when he was told Gideon was the most popular politician in the country! ;-)

Parents, always telling their kids porkies to boost their ego and make them feel good.

Most parents yes, but luckily for him a reputable polling organisations went forth and asked the electorate.

Who did they ask, bankers? Generally he is about as popular as a fart in a lift.

People must really like farts in lifts then. ;-)

PB Hodges?

"George Osborne, the chancellor, continues to outperform everyone..."

*titter*

TheScreamingEagles said:

compouter2 said:

Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.

No, I'm just pointing out you're talking rubbish, and the polling contradicts you.

I'd like to remind you, you're the poster earlier on this year that said there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.

Are you sure you're not Sion Simon with that kind of predictive powers?

Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction. Three out of hundreds. Could have been worse I could have made about six predictions and kept moving the goalposts along every time the most recent one failed....now who was that?