'It really is remarkable that 22,000 fewer people voting for the main three 2010 parties, and 8,000 more voting UKIP is being spun as proof of UKIP toxicity ' ...
I'm not sure its wise of you to keep believing that. For one - the libdems are in government and not a repository for the uncle Tom Cobly and all protest faction. For another - take a look at a real earthquake, Orpington where the liberal vote share showed a +31% swing. The Tories -22%. That was 26% swing toxic.
Where is the evidence of the Tories being 'toxic'? It is not to be found in them comfortably holding a seat a year out from an election.
Ukip gaining 8000 while the other three lose 9000, 9000, and 4000.
Proof of ukip being toxic you say?
Agree to disagree on that one
I didn't say anyone was toxic, let's not put words in my mouth
You are not crazy. But you might be living in cloud cuckoo land. Why did the electorate not give the government a pasting in Newark? Or even fail to come close? Why? Simple question. Why?
Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.
No, I'm just pointing out you're talking rubbish, and the polling contradicts you.
I'd like to remind you, you're the poster earlier on this year that said there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.
Are you sure you're not Sion Simon with that kind of predictive powers?
Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction. Three out of hundreds. Could have been worse I could have made about six predictions and kept moving the goalposts along every time the most recent one failed....now who was that?
It has been 4 polls, odd you no longer mention Rod Crosby, whose predictions you mocked, until he was proven right, and you weren't.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.
No, I'm just pointing out you're talking rubbish, and the polling contradicts you.
I'd like to remind you, you're the poster earlier on this year that said there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.
Are you sure you're not Sion Simon with that kind of predictive powers?
Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction. Three out of hundreds. Could have been worse I could have made about six predictions and kept moving the goalposts along every time the most recent one failed....now who was that?
It has been 4 polls, odd you no longer mention Rod Crosby, whose predictions you mocked, until he was proven right, and you weren't.
Which 4 - are you counting the whole "Ed Miliband and Labour" one in that ?
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.
No, I'm just pointing out you're talking rubbish, and the polling contradicts you.
I'd like to remind you, you're the poster earlier on this year that said there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.
Are you sure you're not Sion Simon with that kind of predictive powers?
Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction. Three out of hundreds. Could have been worse I could have made about six predictions and kept moving the goalposts along every time the most recent one failed....now who was that?
It has been 4 polls, odd you no longer mention Rod Crosby, whose predictions you mocked, until he was proven right, and you weren't.
I quite often mention Rod Crosby via his polling calculator. In fact I have quite a similar one myself The Lambert and Butler (Pony Juice) calculator with it's Southend on Sea derivatives.
There's a great chart on page 222 here showing immigration back to the 1960s. All that us "extremists" on the issue want to do is to return to the stable level that existed from the mid-60s to the mid-90s.
Evening Mr Eagles, carrying the PB Hodge banner as usual I see. How did the crossover party go, before you could say Tally Ho!, it was over.
No, I'm just pointing out you're talking rubbish, and the polling contradicts you.
I'd like to remind you, you're the poster earlier on this year that said there wouldn't be crossover before the general election.
Are you sure you're not Sion Simon with that kind of predictive powers?
Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction. Three out of hundreds. Could have been worse I could have made about six predictions and kept moving the goalposts along every time the most recent one failed....now who was that?
It has been 4 polls, odd you no longer mention Rod Crosby, whose predictions you mocked, until he was proven right, and you weren't.
Which 4 - are you counting the whole "Ed Miliband and Labour" one in that ?
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
Your second point may well be true, and I've stated before my firm belief that the genesis of UKIP represents the death of The Conservative Party -how many years this will take I don't know.
I'd strongly recommend Robert Blake's 'The Conservative Party from Peel to Thatcher'. It'll give you a good basic understanding of that which you speak.
There have been multiple attempts to set up a right wing challenger to the Conservatives. Not one of them has survived.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
Copies of old letters sent to a young boy in a care home by a Labour peer now at the centre of paedophile allegations reveal how the politician cultivated an extremely close relationship with the teenager over a two-year period.
The letters, which have been seen by the Observer, raise serious questions about the peer's motives. Several are signed with "love from" and show how the peer was assiduous in writing to the boy and arranging for them to meet, sometimes in a hotel. The boy, now a married man with children, has alleged that he was sexually abused by the peer.
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
Just boys who want to help out paying the rent, by doing chaps some small favours - surely ?
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
True
Well we will see
I fear the worst for the big two parties here... Carlotta has just linked to a politician being a paedo
Awesome, we are going to have one of those situations where everyone knows who it is but nooone can talk about it. I understand British law and why this site has to abide by it and all but thinks its pretty funny all the same ^_~
Awesome, we are going to have one of those situations where everyone knows who it is but nooone can talk about it. I understand British law and why this site has to abide by it and all but thinks its pretty funny all the same ^_~
Awesome, we are going to have one of those situations where everyone knows who it is but nooone can talk about it. I understand British law and why this site has to abide by it and all but thinks its pretty funny all the same ^_~
People said the same thing when everyone "knew" that Lord McAlpine was a paedophile.
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
True
Well we will see
I fear the worst for the big two parties here... Carlotta has just linked to a politician being a paedo
Labour or Tory? How'd you bet?!?!?
"The Observer has also learned that information held by Conservative whips – including details of any sexual misdemeanours – has been shredded since 1996, meaning the Butler-Sloss inquiry is highly unlikely to be able to access much of the secret information logged about the private lives of Tory MPs."
So probably not Tory, although its difficult to shred witnesses as easy as paper.
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
Labour or Tory? How'd you bet?!?!?
Well the Lib Dems already have Cyril Smith (formerly Labour), so I wouldn't be surprised if both had a couple.
Last month the Mirror named a Labour Peer whose office had been searched;
Awesome, we are going to have one of those situations where everyone knows who it is but nooone can talk about it. I understand British law and why this site has to abide by it and all but thinks its pretty funny all the same ^_~
They have the same problem in Rochdale. Everyone there knows who did the covering up over Knowl View. The BBC ran a short documentary about the shredding of evidence a few days ago, without naming him, however, no one can say his name until the police name him.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
Awesome, we are going to have one of those situations where everyone knows who it is but nooone can talk about it. I understand British law and why this site has to abide by it and all but thinks its pretty funny all the same ^_~
We can try a funny codebook like allo!allo!, the french did it for their presidential elections.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
Labour or Tory? How'd you bet?!?!?
Well the Lib Dems already have Cyril Smith (formerly Labour), so I wouldn't be surprised if both had a couple.
Last month the Mirror named a Labour Peer whose office had been searched;
If this stuff is true about Thatcher, she will drop very, very far in my estimation of her.
Since we'll never know her side of the story (was she told "children" or "rent boys"?) I doubt we'll ever know. Since (despite what the haters say) she had a pretty libertarian attitude to homosexuality (one of the few Tories to vote for the Wolfenden reforms) the latter may be explicable, the former, not.
13year old rent boys are children
Not all rent boys are children though?
Labour or Tory? How'd you bet?!?!?
Well the Lib Dems already have Cyril Smith (formerly Labour), so I wouldn't be surprised if both had a couple.
Last month the Mirror named a Labour Peer whose office had been searched;
And while the other three parties deal with historic paedophilia cover ups in the next 10 months or so, ukip voters will be running back to them will they?
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
And while the other three parties deal with historic paedophilia cover ups in the next 10 months or so, ukip voters will be running back to them will they?
I think voters will fret as much as during the expenses scandal. But as long as no big named politician is caught to symbolise the scandal, it will fly low after the summer.
So I got tired of waiting for the wiki graph to be updated, so I made a google doc which I'll endeavour to keep updated on a daily basis.
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’ When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
"SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
• Get the latest referendum news, opinion and analysis from across Scotland and beyond on our new Scottish Independence website
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June."
Speaker blackmailed over gay sex secrets: Westminster's most powerful official had 'interest in young men'... and was in charge when MP Dickens compiled missing paedophile dossier
Fresh claims concern former Commons Speaker George Thomas, who later became Viscount Tonypandy
MoS has been told of claims that Labour MP Thomas propositioned young men in Speaker’s official grace and favour apartment in Parliament
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’ When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’ When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
Farage is either an idiot who is leaning towards a giant blunder, or a genius who wants to tempt the Tories into publicly doing so and in-fighting about a pact. Either way it will almost certainly come to nothing.
Speedy True, although even in the UK the preferred PM tends to win unless his party trails on the economy, as Callaghan did in 1979 and Wilson in 1970, as Labour are behind on that too Ed M would be setting a new record to become PM
As usual, Farage being lazy and looking for a quick and easy way into Westminster at the last minute without having to do the hard work needed! This just shows why the Greens managed to get their Leader elected to Westminster before Farage or any UKIP MP despite their Euro successes!
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’ When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
Oops, didn't realise that Eagles had already posted the new Indy poll from ICM. I was watching T in the Park, I got the heads up on the poll from fitaloon who is not a Calvin Harris fan...
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
The sensible place for a spaceport is as far south in the UK as possible, as the orbital mechanics are easier when you get closer to the equator. That's why the US have based their launch site in Florida. Investment is being taken away from England to give to Scotland because they're threatening to leave. Very wrong.
The sensible place for a spaceport is as far south in the UK as possible, as the orbital mechanics are easier when you get closer to the equator. That's why the US have based their launch site in Florida. Investment is being taken away from England to give to Scotland because they're threatening to leave. Very wrong.
That sounds like an argument for building the thing in a different country altogether, but Googling this up you apparently want to launch eastwards, over an unpopulated route in case something falls out of the sky on somebody. Presumably the Dutch would get annoyed if the British kept dropping bits of rocket on them.
As usual, Farage being lazy and looking for a quick and easy way into Westminster at the last minute without having to do the hard work needed! This just shows why the Greens managed to get their Leader elected to Westminster before Farage or any UKIP MP despite their Euro successes!
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’ When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
Oops, didn't realise that Eagles had already posted the new Indy poll from ICM. I was watching T in the Park, I got the heads up on the poll from fitaloon who is not a Calvin Harris fan...
SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
"Channel 4 is facing furious demands to axe a controversial drama that hijacks a real terrorist murder of a senior Tory MP for entertainment.
The family of Airey Neave are fighting to ban the fictional thriller, which uses genuine news footage of the car bomb that killed him in the Commons car park, from being aired tomorrow.
Producers of the drama Utopia pretend that his 1979 death was perpetrated by a secret MI5 cell, when in fact he was murdered by the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), an IRA splinter group.
His devastated family – who were not consulted by the channel – last night said they were intending to take action after learning how the prime-time series had fictionalised the atrocity ‘in the name of entertainment’ as well as falsely depicting him as a debauched and conniving figure.
The drama muddies the line between fact and fiction, drawing heavily on debunked conspiracy theories that Mr Neave – a war hero who escaped Colditz – was assassinated by the Government."
Sorry to be late to the party, however I think this from the header sums it up:
We saw this already ahead of the May 22nd Euros. Labour barely mentioned anything about the EU but focused almost entirely on anti-CON and anti-LD messages
And in consequence became the first principal party of opposition to fail to win a European election since 1984.
It is no longer good enough to simply not be the other lot. An anti-Tory vote in not inevitably a pro-Labour one; even an anti-(Tory+LD) vote isn't necessarily a pro-Labour one. And of course the reverse also holds. True, if you can reduce the other side's total, it makes your life easier even if you don't increase your vote by that one, unless the third party is also in contention.
One other quick point. Even if Miliband is successful in reaching Downing St, it will be on massively weak support, using Labour as a vehicle of convenience rather than because of a positive buy-in to their message, ideology and platform. Expect that temporary coalition to melt like snow in April once the reality of Labour in office hits. I would not be surprised to see Labour polling in the teens within 18 months.
It is, of course, possible that independence would cure Scotland’s entitlement culture and revive its entrepreneurial side. If either of its two dominant parties—the SNP and Labour—were disciples of Adam Smith that would be plausible. But their statist philosophies are more likely to drive Edinburgh’s fund managers, Aberdeen’s oil-services engineers and other talented Scots south. Independence would also impose one-off costs: a new Scottish state would have to set up an army, a welfare system, a currency and much else.
Sorry to be late to the party, however I think this from the header sums it up:
We saw this already ahead of the May 22nd Euros. Labour barely mentioned anything about the EU but focused almost entirely on anti-CON and anti-LD messages
And in consequence became the first principal party of opposition to fail to win a European election since 1984.
It is no longer good enough to simply not be the other lot. An anti-Tory vote in not inevitably a pro-Labour one; even an anti-(Tory+LD) vote isn't necessarily a pro-Labour one. And of course the reverse also holds. True, if you can reduce the other side's total, it makes your life easier even if you don't increase your vote by that one, unless the third party is also in contention
Under PR, no. Under FPTP, yes. Westminster elections are stil basically a zero-sum game between two parties, and one less vpte for the other side is just as good as one more vote for you.
This is an exceedingly bad way to choose a government, which is why electoral reformers have been banging on about PR for all these years.
The importance of trade and reputation means attempting to keep the pound is a sensible policy. The problem is that it is not a feasible one. The British government has made clear that Scotland will not be permitted to use sterling as its official currency.
Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 11th July - Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -21
The Tories will be disappointed to see Labour's lead extend once again to 5%, particularly as they do not appear to be picking up the lion's share of the erosion of UKIP's share of the vote.
Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 11th July - Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -21
The Tories will be disappointed to see Labour's lead extend once again to 5%, particularly as they do not appear to be picking up the lion's share of the erosion of UKIP's share of the vote.
I suspect all we are seeing is MOE around a 3/4% lead.
They may also console themselves with the leader's ratings:
Well (net) (vs -2wks) Cameron: -11 (-) Miliband: -43 (+2)
And Farage seems to be enjoying a post-Euro afterglow on +24, up 9 points from the start of May.
The SNP are doing a fine job of alienating some of the very 'Scottish voters' they previously persuaded to tactically vote for them at Holyrood back in 2011. You only have to look at what happened in the Euro's recently when Salmond at the last hurdle tried to persuade voters to lend them their vote to keep UKIP out of Scotland......
If I had a pound for every time I had read "this will be the most negative campaign ever"......
However, the premise is sound - DAVID CAMERON's Conservatives will attack ED MILIBAND's Labour, while Labour will attack the TORIES.
Of course we will get a dry run of this in September to see whether Scotland opts to AVOID ANOTHER 5YEARS OF TORY RULE , as Nichola Sturgeon was urging on QT last night......
Ha Ha Ha, only a Tory diehard could come out with that mince. Tories are the experts at alienation, how well did they do in the Euro's again, oh a very very distant 3rd, that would explain why they spend most of their time decrying the successful SNP.
Wrong. The Tories were in third 3.8% behind Ukip on first in the Euros. That is not "very distant"
Comments
Proof of ukip being toxic you say?
Agree to disagree on that one
I didn't say anyone was toxic, let's not put words in my mouth
But you might be living in cloud cuckoo land. Why did the electorate not give the government a pasting in Newark? Or even fail to come close? Why?
Simple question.
Why?
http://spotlightonabuse.wordpress.com/2014/03/05/rumors-in-westminister-of-child-sex-scandal-prompt-pm-to-step-in-23-06-84/
Couldn't seem to replicate the trend curves seen on the wiki, even when I used a 15-day moving average like the person on the wiki. For each point on the smoothed curve, it calculates the average from all the polls from the previous 7 days, and the following 7 days (making a 15-day window).
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
But Jimmy Savile stayed at Chequers about ten years on the trot for Christmas or NYE didn't he? I don't want to believe it, but it looks so bad
Which 4 - are you counting the whole "Ed Miliband and Labour" one in that
The birth rate has fallen since 1970 and the population has aged.
Very difficult to reverse such a trend once established, but at least acknowledge its existence.
There have been multiple attempts to set up a right wing challenger to the Conservatives. Not one of them has survived.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Conservative-Party-Peel-Thatcher/dp/0006860036
Copies of old letters sent to a young boy in a care home by a Labour peer now at the centre of paedophile allegations reveal how the politician cultivated an extremely close relationship with the teenager over a two-year period.
The letters, which have been seen by the Observer, raise serious questions about the peer's motives. Several are signed with "love from" and show how the peer was assiduous in writing to the boy and arranging for them to meet, sometimes in a hotel. The boy, now a married man with children, has alleged that he was sexually abused by the peer.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/13/labour-peer-letters-boy-questions?CMP=twt_fd
Well we will see
I fear the worst for the big two parties here... Carlotta has just linked to a politician being a paedo
Labour or Tory? How'd you bet?!?!?
How'd that turn out?
So probably not Tory, although its difficult to shred witnesses as easy as paper.
Last month the Mirror named a Labour Peer whose office had been searched;
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/child-abuse-detectives-raid-labour-3740002
So is your 09/07/2014 an average so far which will later change?
I'm actually going to make sure at least three polls are included before an average point appears.
This will make for an excellent resource!
But as long as no big named politician is caught to symbolise the scandal, it will fly low after the summer.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June.
The fall in Yes support was accompanied by polling evidence suggesting that pro-UK parties’ strategy to offer more Holyrood powers has hardened the No vote.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-stalling-yes-vote-1-3474916
I wonder if we'll get another blog from Peter Kellner.
"Farage knows how to work an audience and his speech was lustily received. But people wanted to be assured that Ukip wasn’t going to let Labour in through the back door. One of those on board tells me: ‘It was a very Eurosceptic crowd but it didn’t want a socialist government as a result of Eurosceptic campaigning.’
When Farage was challenged on this, he replied that there was ‘No prospect of a deal as both Cameron and Osborne view us in Ukip as members of the lower orders, not proper people.’ But, he continued, there was a ‘potentially intelligent approach’
He pointed out that Ukip does better in working-class areas and the Conservatives in middle- and upper-class places. Warming to his theme, Farage set out what he would do if he were Conservative Prime Minister. ‘It’s very easy, you offer Ukip 20 or 30 seats where the Conservatives will stand down, if you leave us alone in the rest of the country.’ "
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2690007/JAMES-FORSYTH-Farages-heavy-hint-Tories-Give-20-seats-rest-yours.html#ixzz37Ib88gNQ
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10961684/Ed-Miliband-is-less-cool-than-Sir-Menzies-Campbell-survey-finds.html
"SUPPORT for Scottish independence has fallen over the last month, according to an exclusive poll which suggests the Yes campaign is stalling.
An ICM survey, conducted for Scotland on Sunday, shows backing for Yes stands at 34 per cent, a fall of 2 percentage points since a comparable poll last month.
• Get the latest referendum news, opinion and analysis from across Scotland and beyond on our new Scottish Independence website
The decline in support for Yes has been matched by a two point rise for No, which has increased its backing to 45 per cent since June."
Fresh claims concern former Commons Speaker George Thomas, who later became Viscount Tonypandy
MoS has been told of claims that Labour MP Thomas propositioned young men in Speaker’s official grace and favour apartment in Parliament
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690079/Speaker-blackmailed-gay-sex-secrets-Westminster-s-powerful-official-young-men-charge-MP-Dickens-compiled-missing-paedophile-dossier.html
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Daily-Record-tables-1-33-June.pdf
It has to be an event that affects scotland too.
No lead grows by 4 points in new Scotland on Sunday ICM #indyref poll tomorrow. 4th poll in row (from 4 different pollsters) to show No up.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2689955/Secret-files-Thatcher-set-gunfight-Soviets-corpse-Hitler-s-deputy-Hess.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
Fancy WW3 over the dead body of Rudolf Hess.
'Actually Mr Eagles I first said that late 2012, and considering how many polls we have had since then I don't think it's too bad of a prediction'
Which name were you posting under then?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28276525
The sensible place for a spaceport is as far south in the UK as possible, as the orbital mechanics are easier when you get closer to the equator. That's why the US have based their launch site in Florida. Investment is being taken away from England to give to Scotland because they're threatening to leave. Very wrong.
Fry stuns Labour gala as he hits out at sex abuse investigation: Miliband rebukes TV star after he attacks former DPP
Mr Fry singled out for criticism Keir Starmer, the former Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), who was present at the gala dinner last Wednesday.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2690107/Fry-stuns-Labour-gala-hits-sex-abuse-investigation-Miliband-rebukes-TV-star-attacks-former-DPP.html
Daily Mail - Fury over Channel 4 insult to MP killed by the IRA: Family of Colditz escapee and war hero Airey Neave demand TV series is axed
"Channel 4 is facing furious demands to axe a controversial drama that hijacks a real terrorist murder of a senior Tory MP for entertainment.
The family of Airey Neave are fighting to ban the fictional thriller, which uses genuine news footage of the car bomb that killed him in the Commons car park, from being aired tomorrow.
Producers of the drama Utopia pretend that his 1979 death was perpetrated by a secret MI5 cell, when in fact he was murdered by the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), an IRA splinter group.
His devastated family – who were not consulted by the channel – last night said they were intending to take action after learning how the prime-time series had fictionalised the atrocity ‘in the name of entertainment’ as well as falsely depicting him as a debauched and conniving figure.
The drama muddies the line between fact and fiction, drawing heavily on debunked conspiracy theories that Mr Neave – a war hero who escaped Colditz – was assassinated by the Government."
We saw this already ahead of the May 22nd Euros. Labour barely mentioned anything about the EU but focused almost entirely on anti-CON and anti-LD messages
And in consequence became the first principal party of opposition to fail to win a European election since 1984.
It is no longer good enough to simply not be the other lot. An anti-Tory vote in not inevitably a pro-Labour one; even an anti-(Tory+LD) vote isn't necessarily a pro-Labour one. And of course the reverse also holds. True, if you can reduce the other side's total, it makes your life easier even if you don't increase your vote by that one, unless the third party is also in contention.
One other quick point. Even if Miliband is successful in reaching Downing St, it will be on massively weak support, using Labour as a vehicle of convenience rather than because of a positive buy-in to their message, ideology and platform. Expect that temporary coalition to melt like snow in April once the reality of Labour in office hits. I would not be surprised to see Labour polling in the teens within 18 months.
It is, of course, possible that independence would cure Scotland’s entitlement culture and revive its entrepreneurial side. If either of its two dominant parties—the SNP and Labour—were disciples of Adam Smith that would be plausible. But their statist philosophies are more likely to drive Edinburgh’s fund managers, Aberdeen’s oil-services engineers and other talented Scots south. Independence would also impose one-off costs: a new Scottish state would have to set up an army, a welfare system, a currency and much else.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21606832-why-we-hope-people-scotland-will-vote-stay-union-dont-leave-us-way?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/pe/dontleaveusthisway
This is an exceedingly bad way to choose a government, which is why electoral reformers have been banging on about PR for all these years.
The importance of trade and reputation means attempting to keep the pound is a sensible policy. The problem is that it is not a feasible one. The British government has made clear that Scotland will not be permitted to use sterling as its official currency.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/07/economist-explains-7#sthash.NUiutqc5.dpuf
They may also console themselves with the leader's ratings:
Well (net) (vs -2wks)
Cameron: -11 (-)
Miliband: -43 (+2)
And Farage seems to be enjoying a post-Euro afterglow on +24, up 9 points from the start of May.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/y4sayu4xj2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140711.pdf