Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting – politicalbetting.com
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Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were both campaigning in Hartlepool yesterday. That may be because they both believe the by-election there to be very close or it may be that they wish to give that impression.
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Agreed. That's my judgement too.2
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I'm on the Tories. I think recent electoral history on swingback isn't a good guide anymore with the values shifts taking place, and Hartlepool is almost pitch perfect for their target pool of voters. It's bigger than just Brexit, which is a symptom not a cause.
Also, Starmer isn't Corbyn but he is Starmer and has his own issues - insincere triangulating north London left-liberal being chief amongst them - and I don't think Westminster bubble issues on Boris will resonate here.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Not inclined to bet on this, to be honest. Can see it going either way.0 -
Agreed. That's my judgement too.Casino_Royale said:I'm on the Tories. I think recent electoral history on swingback isn't a good guide anymore with the values shifts taking place, and Hartlepool is almost pitch perfect for their target pool of voters. It's bigger than just Brexit, which is a symptom not a cause.
Also, Starmer isn't Corbyn but he is Starmer and has his own issues - insincere triangulating north London left-liberal being chief amongst them - and I don't think Westminster bubble issues on Boris will resonate here.0 -
Still expecting a narrow Labour hold. Anything else would just be too odd. OTOH I think the Tories will do well in the Teeside and WM Mayorals. Not usre about The West of England one. For me the natioonal polls currently are the decsive factor and we've simply not heard enough on the ground in Hartlepool to suggest it's in the bag.0
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I should add that Jill Mortimer is a weak candidate for Hartlepool.MarqueeMark said:
Agreed. That's my judgement too.Casino_Royale said:I'm on the Tories. I think recent electoral history on swingback isn't a good guide anymore with the values shifts taking place, and Hartlepool is almost pitch perfect for their target pool of voters. It's bigger than just Brexit, which is a symptom not a cause.
Also, Starmer isn't Corbyn but he is Starmer and has his own issues - insincere triangulating north London left-liberal being chief amongst them - and I don't think Westminster bubble issues on Boris will resonate here.
If the Tories win it will be in spite of and not because of her. I can only assume she got it because she has friends in high places.1 -
I’d go with David and Mike, particularly as the news headlines are starting to swing against be government. Hartlepool may be Brexit central, but Brexit is now done. Voters are swung by the future not the past, and it isn’t clear what the Tory promise to Hartlepool is, other than some vague stuff about levelling up that so far has come to nothing.0
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People have been saying this since GE2017 about the Red Wall. There's been plenty of evidence for "odd" things since - Leigh, Sedgefield, Redcar.. And national polls camouflage how things are moving about.felix said:Still expecting a narrow Labour hold. Anything else would just be too odd. OTOH I think the Tories will do well in the Teeside and WM Mayorals. Not usre about The West of England one. For me the natioonal polls currently are the decsive factor and we've simply not heard enough on the ground in Hartlepool to suggest it's in the bag.
I'm not naive or delusional. I think Labour are making progress but in the Mets, university towns and southern places like Worthing, Wycombe, and Milton Keynes where young middle-class graduates are clustering and modestly in Scotland and Wales too.
They aren't here.0 -
I have just read Count Binface's manifesto. It is rather good, more sensible than some proper party manifestos. And if you have seen the place they put the handdryer in the Uxbridge pub loo you would know what I mean.0
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I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
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“Boris Johnson personally picked up the phone to newspaper editors to blame Dominic Cummings for leaking against his government” 👇 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1385704781419798530
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1385711372126855172
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I think it's new green technology and pharmaceutical plants - basically, new industries. Coupled with things like saving football and anti-Wokeness it could be a potent package.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.0 -
Indeed. But counter-balanced by Labour picking a lousy candidate for that seat.Casino_Royale said:
I should add that Jill Mortimer is a weak candidate for Hartlepool.MarqueeMark said:
Agreed. That's my judgement too.Casino_Royale said:I'm on the Tories. I think recent electoral history on swingback isn't a good guide anymore with the values shifts taking place, and Hartlepool is almost pitch perfect for their target pool of voters. It's bigger than just Brexit, which is a symptom not a cause.
Also, Starmer isn't Corbyn but he is Starmer and has his own issues - insincere triangulating north London left-liberal being chief amongst them - and I don't think Westminster bubble issues on Boris will resonate here.
If the Tories win it will be in spite of and not because of her. I can only assume she got it because she has friends in high places.1 -
Labour real value here. I expect them to hold, albeit narrowly.2
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Yes, it is rather good. I am glad that someone finally is tackling the big issues.kjh said:I have just read Count Binface's manifesto. It is rather good, more sensible than some proper party manifestos. And if you have seen the place they put the handdryer in the Uxbridge pub loo you would know what I mean.
https://www.countbinface.com/london-2021-manifesto
4.5 to beat Fox with Shadsy.1 -
As David says in the header, he is in two minds himself.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Not inclined to bet on this, to be honest. Can see it going either way.
For very regular punters, such value bets at not long odds are perhaps more interesting than to those of us who dabble ?0 -
They might get a clue from Biden over the next couple of years, if the Senate will let him (cough, Joe Manchin).Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
Problem, for them is that so might Boris.0 -
My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings1
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"Saving football and anti-Wokeness" doesn't sound more than shallow populism to me, rather than economic and social renewal.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's new green technology and pharmaceutical plants - basically, new industries. Coupled with things like saving football and anti-Wokeness it could be a potent package.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I think that the better paid jobs in the green technology and pharma sector are in the research and design sector, rather than manufacturing. The key to getting those jobs to places like Teeside is making them attractive to university graduates as places to live. Celebrating cultural reaction is unlikely to do that.3 -
'Events, dear boy, events', as a former Member for Stockton famously said.
The headlines are not good for the PM or the Conservatives at the moment. I don't think that, as the Post Office scandal opens up further that initially that will be good for the Conservatives, although our PM ought to be able to turn the situation to his advantage.
On the other hand, Cummings revelations, while coming from a somewhat tainted source but touch a nerve.
And Good Morning everyone. Sunny again and Mrs C and I had en excellent lunch in a very pleasant pub garden yesterday. With a goldfinch singing his little heart out on a nearby tree, so high that I couldn't get a decent picture on my phone.0 -
It's certainly very funny.Foxy said:
Yes, it is rather good. I am glad that someone finally is tackling the big issues.kjh said:I have just read Count Binface's manifesto. It is rather good, more sensible than some proper party manifestos. And if you have seen the place they put the handdryer in the Uxbridge pub loo you would know what I mean.
https://www.countbinface.com/london-2021-manifesto
4.5 to beat Fox with Shadsy.
America could use this sort of humour in its politics, quite frankly.0 -
He is 7/1 to get more than 20000 first votes with ladbrokes which i think is value especially given William Hills are 7/2 on him getting more than 1% - Given about 3.5M votes were cast in the last mayor election this is quite a difference of opinion (or misatke) by one of the bookies - I think its ladbrokes who may be wrong here .I have also invested a bit on him beating Fox at 11/2kjh said:I have just read Count Binface's manifesto. It is rather good, more sensible than some proper party manifestos. And if you have seen the place they put the handdryer in the Uxbridge pub loo you would know what I mean.
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Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.1 -
Contrasts oddly with, AIUI, the super injunctions on former wives (etc) from talking to the Press.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
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(FPT)
@theProle has touched on an interesting point, though.rcs1000 said:
I was actually looking into this as a "hey save money by generating your own electricity" business, and got into the numbers in some detail. Which is why I know it works for (many) apartment complexes.theProle said:
I wasn't suggesting this is to be encouraged, more pointing out that green electricity can't possibly be claimed to be cheap compared to natural gas if its even remotely economic to generate your own electricity from gas. When idly considering this concept, I think I reckoned that the electricity cost was probably comparable with the grid, and I then got the free heating from the cooling water as a byproduct.rcs1000 said:
For apartment complexes with shared heating and hot water, you can use combined heat and power units and then your effective efficiencies are pretty high.theProle said:I calculated that the differential between the price per KW of electricity and natural gas supplied to my house (2.3p vs 12.8p) is so great I could theoretically save money by generating my electricity with a gas powered genset, despite its inefficiencies.
Bear in mind, though, that you can't have the entire country generating electricity at home from natural gas, because the local gas distribution grid has perhaps a fifth of the capacity that is needed.
The UK's gas grid probably wouldn't be that overstretched if this did catch on (you can actually get combi boilers that also generate electricity when running) - my annual electricity usage is less than 20% of my gas usage, and that's probably pretty typical. Even at 25% efficiency, that's only going to double my gas consumption.
The problem with doing in on a more widespread basis is that most (a) most people use more joules of electricity than of gas, and (b) electricity demand varies quite a lot with the time of day. So - unless you want Tesla PowerWalls in every home - you're limited by peak demand.
As an aside, banning gas for home heating is utterly retarded. Natural gas is a super efficient way to heat homes.
The solid oxide fuel cells from Ceres power, which generate heat and electricity (approx half and half) from natural gas have a combined efficiency of around 90%. They only really work on a fairly large scale, though (200kW plus) - but for large developments they are much more efficient than mains electricity.
And the heat can also be used for powering cooling systems via adsorptive refrigeration, so is usable year round.
It’s a great interim fix for reducing carbon footprint in the short/medium term, since it’s economically very attractive for a lot of projects.
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Wow. The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
"Saving football and anti-Wokeness" doesn't sound more than shallow populism to me, rather than economic and social renewal.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's new green technology and pharmaceutical plants - basically, new industries. Coupled with things like saving football and anti-Wokeness it could be a potent package.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I think that the better paid jobs in the green technology and pharma sector are in the research and design sector, rather than manufacturing. The key to getting those jobs to places like Teeside is making them attractive to university graduates as places to live. Celebrating cultural reaction is unlikely to do that.
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The taxonomy of the Cummings war is fascinating. Westminster chatter linked him to the Dyson, Saudi, flat stories earlier in the week. Guido, for eg, did a throwaway par on it.
For some reason this turns into a formal briefing to three newspapers...why?
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/13858347701652930560 -
Mr. Away, hmm. Have put a little on those bets. Let's hope they come off.0
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No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.3 -
Also just done 25/1 on Binface heading a group of Fox, gammons, Rose and Corbyn with ladbrokes which looks massive value given the viral nature of Binface's campaignMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Away, hmm. Have put a little on those bets. Let's hope they come off.
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You can get 7/1 on Binface getting over 20,000 votes at Ladbrokes.
Surely this is an easy orginisational for a quick "Binface for London" Facebook group? Organise 20k London residents to slap 100 quid on the result and vote for him?0 -
Oh, and Brett Kavanaugh is a wanker, https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1385362881596821507?s=192
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Peter Brookes is having fun. Not up to yesterday's standard but if you get one or two of those in a year you're doing well..Scott_xP said:“Boris Johnson personally picked up the phone to newspaper editors to blame Dominic Cummings for leaking against his government” 👇 https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1385704781419798530
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/13857113721268551720 -
It's a good tip by both you and @state_go_awayAlistair said:You can get 7/1 on Binface getting over 20,000 votes at Ladbrokes.
Surely this is an easy orginisational for a quick "Binface for London" Facebook group? Organise 20k London residents to slap 100 quid on the result and vote for him?
20,000 votes for him is achievable.0 -
Maybe, although some are speculating on Gove's intentions at this point...Casino_Royale said:Total Westminster bubble story.
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Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.3 -
Both ways.Black_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.1 -
I think not.OldKingCole said:
Both ways.Black_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.1 -
Khan to get between 35-40% at 16/1 with the Magic Sign (laddies for those under 50!) looks generous given the last polling had him on 42%.1
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Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.2 -
Not as many, but some. Hove?Black_Rook said:
I think not.OldKingCole said:
Both ways.Black_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.0 -
yes its a damming indictment of a party set up to relieve conditions amongst the working class in the early 20th century that they now have far more of a chance winning Guildford than Mansfield . Somebody sensible at Labour needs to step back and consider this before it becomes a party for just woke virtue signallers . Those currently in the top Labour brass probably just mix though with the woke and perhaps feel therefore that they are more importnant to pander to than actually is the case . Hartlepool may just wake them upBlack_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.2 -
There are special local circumstances in Hartlepool that make it especially challenging for Labour to hold: simmering Brownite vs Corbynite feud in the local party, the record of the local Labour council (bad) and the defection of a significant number of councillors and activists to whatever Scargill's thing is called.Black_Rook said:
.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
Also Hartlepudilians are fiercely devoted to the essentially eugenicist philosophy that underpins Brexit.1 -
It’s the idea of getting other people to pay for the refurbs, and then claiming they hadn’t that will resonate with red wallers. The rest is Westminster bubble stuff.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.1 -
And a lot of London seats.OldKingCole said:
Not as many, but some. Hove?Black_Rook said:
I think not.OldKingCole said:
Both ways.Black_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.1 -
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.1 -
It's annoying because I had a good bet on him getting 50%+ of the first round vote, which now looks unlikely to come in.state_go_away said:Khan to get between 35-40% at 16/1 with the Magic Sign (laddies for those under 50!) looks generous given the last polling had him on 42%.
1 -
I think we need to start with the assumption that this would have been won in 2019 if not for the Brexit party by the Tories. Then we need to consider if Labour has done enough to 'win' the seat. I'm not sure they have made any in roads into messaging to the working classes although this will be a good test of whether 'not being Jeremy Corbyn' is a net positive for Labour in this type of seat. Everything I have seen puts this very close so I agree with DH that the value bet is Labour but it is not value enough for me!!IanB2 said:I’d go with David and Mike, particularly as the news headlines are starting to swing against be government. Hartlepool may be Brexit central, but Brexit is now done. Voters are swung by the future not the past, and it isn’t clear what the Tory promise to Hartlepool is, other than some vague stuff about levelling up that so far has come to nothing.
2 -
I'm not remotely a fan of Boris but it seems I am reading the headlines completely differently to most here. On the Dyson stuff it just says Boris moves heaven and earth to get ventilators. The rest of it just looks like opposition desperation which makes me think canvass returns are very bad.
And then you have Boris saves football from some nasty billionaires, and even better some Italian nutter says he did so, the naughty man (as did UEFA)! The Tories would pay Super League money to get advertising like that, and on the back pages too, which people actually read.
One other factor is that the lunatic fringe of Labour are going to be voting Green or even Tory in a desperate attempt to get rid of Keir.
I was thinking the Tories are going to do much better than expected everywhere, including Hartlepool.4 -
Labour only flipped one seat at the last election, so I suppose theoretically that Putney might go safe...OldKingCole said:
Not as many, but some. Hove?Black_Rook said:
I think not.OldKingCole said:
Both ways.Black_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.0 -
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.4 -
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
2 -
Patrick O'Flynn:Seldom have so many keyboard warriors and political activists professed so much dissatisfaction towards the government of the day. For some left-wing bloggers and tweeters, the number one cause of outrage of the moment is so-called 'Tory sleaze', a subject to be added to an already formidably long list of gripes towards Boris Johnson that includes Brexit, the claim that Britain is not very racist and his alleged unforgivable bungling of the Covid crisis.
. . .
But here’s the strangest thing: none of it is making any difference to the Prime Minister’s standing in the eyes of the general public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/teflon-boris-is-causing-starmer-to-come-unstuck
The pinprick efforts of Starmer, Cummings and Peter Brookes will come to nought.... nobody who has visited the Hartlepool by-election campaign now expecting anything other than a Tory victory.0 -
In other climate change news...
Environment Minister Koizumi asked why Japan’ new emissions reduction target set at 46%:
“It's not as though I have a clear vision in sight, but rather a silhouette emerged. What came to mind then was the number 46."
https://twitter.com/MarikaKatanuma/status/13858009481575424000 -
How does a refund work here to the satisfaction of anyone?IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
X gives Y £100k
Y refunds X £100k
What is to stop X then giving Y the £100k back after its refunded, if they were able to give it under the radar in the first place.0 -
I think this constituency is a genuine 50:50 call so if you are getting better odds on Labour that is where the value is. Normally it would be a walk in the park for an Opposition but as David identifies the unknown factor is the large Brexit Party vote.
It's interesting that Boris took time out to campaign there. I doubt he would have done that if he wasn't getting told that it was a possible win. But Labour, surely, aren't going backwards from the disaster of 2019, are they?1 -
Gives a whole new meaning to the expression ‘smoke and mirrors.’Nigelb said:In other climate change news...
Environment Minister Koizumi asked why Japan’ new emissions reduction target set at 46%:
“It's not as though I have a clear vision in sight, but rather a silhouette emerged. What came to mind then was the number 46."
https://twitter.com/MarikaKatanuma/status/13858009481575424000 -
By 2024 the sleaze will be electorally significant unless the govt has done well on the economy (and been lucky given the cylical nature of the world economy is largely beyond any govts control). In Hartlepool, in 2021, nah.Jonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.0 -
And then we're just back to the old problem of each move towards the centre of public opinion pissing off the radicals.state_go_away said:
yes its a damming indictment of a party set up to relieve conditions amongst the working class in the early 20th century that they now have far more of a chance winning Guildford than Mansfield . Somebody sensible at Labour needs to step back and consider this before it becomes a party for just woke virtue signallers . Those currently in the top Labour brass probably just mix though with the woke and perhaps feel therefore that they are more importnant to pander to than actually is the case . Hartlepool may just wake them upBlack_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.
Labour is clogging up the plumbing of our democratic system now. Simultaneously too weak to win and too well dug in to its strongholds to be displaced. Very well. Until Labour either reforms itself fundamentally or is finally ground down and replaced then we shall just have to have Tories, Tories and more Tories. Very much the lesser of two evils.2 -
That's big slide away from Khan - close on 1 in 5 who were going to vote for him having supposedly dropped away. I think he is a bland nothingness of a mayor, but none of the mainstream candidates are any better, so I do wonder if that 42% was quite an outlier.state_go_away said:Khan to get between 35-40% at 16/1 with the Magic Sign (laddies for those under 50!) looks generous given the last polling had him on 42%.
His biggest worry is what the hell incentivises the Labour vote to get off its arse on polling day? Which is a wider issue for the Party.0 -
Stupid headline.
Dominic Cummings launches attack on Boris Johnson's integrity
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56863547
Since when did Johnson have any integrity to attack?7 -
It is not Labour going backwards, its what happens to Brexit party voters. The Labour vote share will surely increase but probably not by enough to hold off the Tory vote.DavidL said:I think this constituency is a genuine 50:50 call so if you are getting better odds on Labour that is where the value is. Normally it would be a walk in the park for an Opposition but as David identifies the unknown factor is the large Brexit Party vote.
It's interesting that Boris took time out to campaign there. I doubt he would have done that if he wasn't getting told that it was a possible win. But Labour, surely, aren't going backwards from the disaster of 2019, are they?0 -
Shades of James Hogg, the Ettrick shepherd ("Confessions of a justified sinner").ydoethur said:
Gives a whole new meaning to the expression ‘smoke and mirrors.’Nigelb said:In other climate change news...
Environment Minister Koizumi asked why Japan’ new emissions reduction target set at 46%:
“It's not as though I have a clear vision in sight, but rather a silhouette emerged. What came to mind then was the number 46."
https://twitter.com/MarikaKatanuma/status/1385800948157542400
0 -
It's not just that. It's a philosophy that puts intersectionality of race and gender at the centre of everything, and allows it to drive policy - including that of "equity", which is simply code for favouring some ethnic groups over another - thinks there's little good about Britain or its past, sneers at English identity on St. George's Day, and would prefer to replace both with something else in future. It's *more* than virtue-signalling because its adherents have every intention of making it Government policy - just look how hard the present administration has had to work just to stop basic cultural desecration and application of dogma across our institutions whilst in office. With a Government that actively backed or acquiesced it would have runaway momentum with very serious real world effects to the social, economic and cultural lives of many people in this country along fundamentally illiberal lines. Labour is seen as a threat - a clear and present danger.state_go_away said:
yes its a damming indictment of a party set up to relieve conditions amongst the working class in the early 20th century that they now have far more of a chance winning Guildford than Mansfield . Somebody sensible at Labour needs to step back and consider this before it becomes a party for just woke virtue signallers . Those currently in the top Labour brass probably just mix though with the woke and perhaps feel therefore that they are more importnant to pander to than actually is the case . Hartlepool may just wake them upBlack_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.
Starmer has tried to disassociate himself with this but it's insincere - both because of his own past utterances, because many of his MPs, activists and members come out with this nonsense almost daily and his councils keep pushing it forward. It would require phenomenonal leadership to turn this around (from the centre-left) within a unity narrative that would require drawing on skills Starmer simply doesn't have.
Voters don't like snouts in the trough, but they're not going to vote for a party that hates them and threatens them because of it - instead they'll tolerate it.5 -
How do people who think Khan is a bit meh but the other candidates are worse vote? I think a lot of them will have Khan as second preference and use their first vote as a signal.MarqueeMark said:
That's big slide away from Khan - close on 1 in 5 who were going to vote for him having supposedly dropped away. I think he is a bland nothingness of a mayor, but none of the mainstream candidates are any better, so I do wonder if that 42% was quite an outlier.state_go_away said:Khan to get between 35-40% at 16/1 with the Magic Sign (laddies for those under 50!) looks generous given the last polling had him on 42%.
His biggest worry is what the hell incentivises the Labour vote to get off its arse on polling day? Which is a wider issue for the Party.2 -
Yep. That's what's going to bring about a change of Government in the United Kingdom after 11 years.IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Downing Street decorators.2 -
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party1 -
Interesting - one of the frustrating things about by-elections is that it's generally only afterwards that we hear about awful canvassing, etc, etc and that party A knew they'd lost from day 1. Getting anything remotely reliable beforehand is rare indeed.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn:
Seldom have so many keyboard warriors and political activists professed so much dissatisfaction towards the government of the day. For some left-wing bloggers and tweeters, the number one cause of outrage of the moment is so-called 'Tory sleaze', a subject to be added to an already formidably long list of gripes towards Boris Johnson that includes Brexit, the claim that Britain is not very racist and his alleged unforgivable bungling of the Covid crisis.
. . .
But here’s the strangest thing: none of it is making any difference to the Prime Minister’s standing in the eyes of the general public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/teflon-boris-is-causing-starmer-to-come-unstuck
The pinprick efforts of Starmer, Cummings and Peter Brookes will come to nought.... nobody who has visited the Hartlepool by-election campaign now expecting anything other than a Tory victory.0 -
Palestinian/Greek.Casino_Royale said:St. George
Bede would be a much better patron saint for England (if you've got to have one). From the red wall, never went any further than Ripon in his life and would 100% have voted leave.3 -
Enjoy your bubble.Black_Rook said:
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party
0 -
Britain is not America.Jonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
Johnson is not Trump.
1 -
It would still be a Trump White House if hadn't so egregiously screwed up over Covid. If he had taken it seriously and had the prospect of a vaccine programme coming to the rescue shortly after the election, he'd be there for four more years.Jonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
Boris has delivered the near perfect vaccine programme.
0 -
Quite right. Sometimes the public are prepared to cast a blind eye towards a duplicious bastard but never for long and he he has history. If not now soon.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.0 -
After 11 years, are you still enjoying yours?Jonathan said:
Enjoy your bubble.Black_Rook said:
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party2 -
"You've"Dura_Ace said:
Palestinian/Greek.Casino_Royale said:St. George
Bede would be a much better patron saint for England (if you've got to have one). From the red wall, never went any further than Ripon in his life and would 100% have voted leave.0 -
Hope springs eternal.Roger said:
Quite right. Sometimes the public are prepared to cast a blind eye towards a duplicious bastard but never for long and he he has history. If not now soon.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
"He has history" - yes, as a winner.
1 -
Well, they’re the one group who’ve successfully cleaned up on this.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. That's what's going to bring about a change of Government in the United Kingdom after 11 years.IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Downing Street decorators.5 -
Which is why the Labour Party is always the Tories' favourite opposition. Too entrenched to die, too arrogant to embrace pluralist politics, it clings to its position as opposition party and sits in the way of genuine progress. We even have the absurd position that a significant chunk of Labour is cheering on the Tories in Hartlepool, thinking a Labour defeat will help them in an internal struggle against their own leader!Black_Rook said:
And then we're just back to the old problem of each move towards the centre of public opinion pissing off the radicals.state_go_away said:
yes its a damming indictment of a party set up to relieve conditions amongst the working class in the early 20th century that they now have far more of a chance winning Guildford than Mansfield . Somebody sensible at Labour needs to step back and consider this before it becomes a party for just woke virtue signallers . Those currently in the top Labour brass probably just mix though with the woke and perhaps feel therefore that they are more importnant to pander to than actually is the case . Hartlepool may just wake them upBlack_Rook said:
Quite possibly not, but then again a bit of flag waving and pork barrelling is liable to prove more attractive than OMFG ALL YOU WHITE PEOPLE ARE SO RACIST!!!! One can argue that this may be crude and neither entirely fair nor truthful, but that is basically where the image of the Check Your Privilege Party is right now.Foxy said:I have a modest sum on the Tories, from when it was more or less evens. I cannot see that BXP vote going to Labour.
Labour's problem in the post industrial areas of the old coalfields is that they have no real plan to revive them either socially or economically. I am not convinced that the Tories do either, apart from pork barrelling them.
I'm already on record saying that, given Hartlepool held for Labour in 2019, and the extreme rarity of Government victories in Parliamentary by-elections, Labour should hold again this time. However, if I'm mistaken and the Tories get in, there's an excellent chance that Labour will never win the seat back, because in much of the country support for them is reflexive and habitual, and once the habit is broken and they become the losers much of that support simply melts away. In all of the five Red Wall seats that Theresa May somehow managed to win in 2017, slender Tory victories were converted into five figure thumpings two years later. Come the next election, we'll likely see a LOT of that sort of thing happening.
Labour is clogging up the plumbing of our democratic system now. Simultaneously too weak to win and too well dug in to its strongholds to be displaced. Very well. Until Labour either reforms itself fundamentally or is finally ground down and replaced then we shall just have to have Tories, Tories and more Tories. Very much the lesser of two evils.1 -
Precisely.noneoftheabove said:
How does a refund work here to the satisfaction of anyone?IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
X gives Y £100k
Y refunds X £100k
What is to stop X then giving Y the £100k back after its refunded, if they were able to give it under the radar in the first place.
Boris is as bent as a two bob note.
But I agree with both those who say this latest twist will have no short-term effect AND with those who claim this supports the longer-term chipping away of Boris’s general electability.5 -
We should be clear that this was the first poll in the race by that pollster, and they prompted for every minor candidate. Pollsters who have polled repeatedly showed much smaller retrenchments:MarqueeMark said:
That's big slide away from Khan - close on 1 in 5 who were going to vote for him having supposedly dropped away. I think he is a bland nothingness of a mayor, but none of the mainstream candidates are any better, so I do wonder if that 42% was quite an outlier.state_go_away said:Khan to get between 35-40% at 16/1 with the Magic Sign (laddies for those under 50!) looks generous given the last polling had him on 42%.
His biggest worry is what the hell incentivises the Labour vote to get off its arse on polling day? Which is a wider issue for the Party.
Redfield and Wilton had Khan down 4%, from 51% to 47%, from 6-8 March to 15-16 April.
Opinium had Khan down 2%, from 53% to 51%, from 17-20 March to 7-10 April.
It's possible there is a late swing away from Khan, or simply that the Comres methodology is superior, and 16/1 are fairly long odds. But I won't be taking this bet. Not a single poll has shown Khan under 40% and only 1 poll ,which had Niko Omilana on 5%, has shown him under 45%.3 -
The complacency and hubris shown by Tories is as palpable as it is reminiscent of other untouchable administrations in the past.0
-
Very droll. I know that Labour's supporters can't compute the fact that Never Labour voters might exist, but we do and we are legion.Jonathan said:
Enjoy your bubble.Black_Rook said:
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party
Johnson is a shit but he's vastly superior to the despicable creature that Labour tried to foist upon us in 2019. Some of us also haven't forgotten that the last Labour Government was responsible for the effective destruction of the United Kingdom. We don't want the same thing happening to England, thank you very much.2 -
Obsessing about BXP voters is a red herring; they will go to the four winds (and many will stay at home).#noneoftheabove said:
It is not Labour going backwards, its what happens to Brexit party voters. The Labour vote share will surely increase but probably not by enough to hold off the Tory vote.DavidL said:I think this constituency is a genuine 50:50 call so if you are getting better odds on Labour that is where the value is. Normally it would be a walk in the park for an Opposition but as David identifies the unknown factor is the large Brexit Party vote.
It's interesting that Boris took time out to campaign there. I doubt he would have done that if he wasn't getting told that it was a possible win. But Labour, surely, aren't going backwards from the disaster of 2019, are they?
You could have made the same point after 2015 - when Labour scored 36% with UKIP on 28% and the Tories on 21%. Yet in 2017 with the UKIP vote falling 17%, the Labour vote went up by significantly more than the Tories - a net Con/Lab swing to Labour of 1.8%, compared to the national swing of 2.0%. So the collapse of the UKIP vote made little difference to the two-party swing.
1 -
You're trying your favourite straw person trick again. I simply said it was a question of legitimate public interest. Which it is.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. That's what's going to bring about a change of Government in the United Kingdom after 11 years.IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Downing Street decorators.1 -
My politics has definitely been denied the comfort of a bubble these past 11 years. It’s hard to be unfashionable.Casino_Royale said:
After 11 years, are you still enjoying yours?Jonathan said:
Enjoy your bubble.Black_Rook said:
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party
Fortunately fashions change. Boris’ bell bottoms whilst all the rage are starting to wear a little thin. And whilst you’re still wearing them, it’s evident that you’re not entirely comfortable.0 -
Dominic Grieve having fun on R4 - Johnson is "a vacuum of integrity"......3
-
Yeah. Looks like a bubble.Black_Rook said:
Very droll. I know that Labour's supporters can't compute the fact that Never Labour voters might exist, but we do and we are legion.Jonathan said:
Enjoy your bubble.Black_Rook said:
*Johnson is not nearly so toxic as TrumpJonathan said:
It’s very similar to what happened in Trumps White House. He was similarly in tune with his constituency, but blind to the world beyond and dysfunctional as the revolving door of talent whirred away. Each story chipped away.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Slowly, but surely all this added up to enough to unseat him. By the time of the election he still delighted his cult like following, blind to the fact that a coalition had rallied around the imperfect Biden.
*Labour is much weaker than the Democrats
*Biden didn't have to cope with having one leg chewed off by the California National Party
Johnson is a shit but he's vastly superior to the despicable creature that Labour tried to foist upon us in 2019. Some of us also haven't forgotten that the last Labour Government was responsible for the effective destruction of the United Kingdom. We don't want the same thing happening to England, thank you very much.0 -
On topic: I agree totally @david_herdson and have topped up on Lab at 2.4 from BF.
It's a GOTV classic. Very low turn out and so on.
0 -
You're suggesting that O'Flynn, former UKIP MEP, writing in the Spectator is "remotely reliable"?felix said:
Interesting - one of the frustrating things about by-elections is that it's generally only afterwards that we hear about awful canvassing, etc, etc and that party A knew they'd lost from day 1. Getting anything remotely reliable beforehand is rare indeed.geoffw said:Patrick O'Flynn:
Seldom have so many keyboard warriors and political activists professed so much dissatisfaction towards the government of the day. For some left-wing bloggers and tweeters, the number one cause of outrage of the moment is so-called 'Tory sleaze', a subject to be added to an already formidably long list of gripes towards Boris Johnson that includes Brexit, the claim that Britain is not very racist and his alleged unforgivable bungling of the Covid crisis.
. . .
But here’s the strangest thing: none of it is making any difference to the Prime Minister’s standing in the eyes of the general public.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/teflon-boris-is-causing-starmer-to-come-unstuck
The pinprick efforts of Starmer, Cummings and Peter Brookes will come to nought.... nobody who has visited the Hartlepool by-election campaign now expecting anything other than a Tory victory.0 -
I agree on the stay home point. Low turn out event. Lot's of negative 'there all the same' + pandemic worries.IanB2 said:
Obsessing about BXP voters is a red herring; they will go to the four winds (and many will stay at home).#noneoftheabove said:
It is not Labour going backwards, its what happens to Brexit party voters. The Labour vote share will surely increase but probably not by enough to hold off the Tory vote.DavidL said:I think this constituency is a genuine 50:50 call so if you are getting better odds on Labour that is where the value is. Normally it would be a walk in the park for an Opposition but as David identifies the unknown factor is the large Brexit Party vote.
It's interesting that Boris took time out to campaign there. I doubt he would have done that if he wasn't getting told that it was a possible win. But Labour, surely, aren't going backwards from the disaster of 2019, are they?
You could have made the same point after 2015 - when Labour scored 36% with UKIP on 28% and the Tories on 21%. Yet in 2017 with the UKIP vote falling 17%, the Labour vote went up by significantly more than the Tories - a net Con/Lab swing to Labour of 1.8%, compared to the national swing of 2.0%. So the collapse of the UKIP vote made little difference to the two-party swing.0 -
Sigh. You're not engaging with my points.Jonathan said:The complacency and hubris shown by Tories is as palpable as it is reminiscent of other untouchable administrations in the past.
Presumably, that's because the questions are simply far too difficult.
Anyway, I must go for painkillers and rest. Ex-tooth is grim and giving me grief.1 -
Interesting observation......
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1385828992138285063?s=20
Interesting change of style in Cummings' latest blog. From long, rambling and incontinent, to rather tight and focused, as though he had the help of an experienced journalist who knew how to land more blows with fewer words. Anyone seen @michaelgove? And re the flat refurb0 -
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
This is extraordinary and risks getting lost.
@SamCoatesSky
says
@BorisJohnson
personally phoned newspaper editors to brief that Cummings had leaked his messages.0 -
Do rest. Sounds horrible.Casino_Royale said:
Sigh. You're not engaging with my points.Jonathan said:The complacency and hubris shown by Tories is as palpable as it is reminiscent of other untouchable administrations in the past.
Presumably, that's because the questions are simply far too difficult.
Anyway, I must go for painkillers and rest. Ex-tooth is grim and giving me grief.
The point is I’ve heard all of this before, just uttered from Labour mouths in about 2006-2007.
1 -
The public perception of the brexit divide between the Tories and Labour in 2017 and 2021 are not remotely close. The Tories are led by the chief druid of Brexit this time around.IanB2 said:
Obsessing about BXP voters is a red herring; they will go to the four winds (and many will stay at home).#noneoftheabove said:
It is not Labour going backwards, its what happens to Brexit party voters. The Labour vote share will surely increase but probably not by enough to hold off the Tory vote.DavidL said:I think this constituency is a genuine 50:50 call so if you are getting better odds on Labour that is where the value is. Normally it would be a walk in the park for an Opposition but as David identifies the unknown factor is the large Brexit Party vote.
It's interesting that Boris took time out to campaign there. I doubt he would have done that if he wasn't getting told that it was a possible win. But Labour, surely, aren't going backwards from the disaster of 2019, are they?
You could have made the same point after 2015 - when Labour scored 36% with UKIP on 28% and the Tories on 21%. Yet in 2017 with the UKIP vote falling 17%, the Labour vote went up by significantly more than the Tories - a net Con/Lab swing to Labour of 1.8%, compared to the national swing of 2.0%. So the collapse of the UKIP vote made little difference to the two-party swing.0 -
It's strawman (it means straw(hu)man; only Wokeies say "strawperson" because they're afraid of misgendering a scarecrow and being accused of misogyny -normal people think that's nuts) and yes such questions should always be asked but the theme of this thread is that this is Der Untergang.IanB2 said:
You're trying your favourite straw person trick again. I simply said it was a question of legitimate public interest. Which it is.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. That's what's going to bring about a change of Government in the United Kingdom after 11 years.IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Downing Street decorators.-1 -
It puts him in an potentially invidious position, but only once the Opposition sorts itself out.Gardenwalker said:
Precisely.noneoftheabove said:
How does a refund work here to the satisfaction of anyone?IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
X gives Y £100k
Y refunds X £100k
What is to stop X then giving Y the £100k back after its refunded, if they were able to give it under the radar in the first place.
Boris is as bent as a two bob note.
But I agree with both those who say this latest twist will have no short-term effect AND with those who claim this supports the longer-term chipping away of Boris’s general electability.
And the Tories might reinvent themselves again (and change their leader) before that takes effect, of course.1 -
Now it's distraction (and with error, since the term began as 'man of straw')Casino_Royale said:
It's strawman (it means straw(hu)man; only Wokeies say "strawperson" because they're afraid of misgendering a scarecrow and being accused of misogyny -normal people think that's nuts) and yes such questions should always be asked but the theme of this thread is that this is Der Untergang.IanB2 said:
You're trying your favourite straw person trick again. I simply said it was a question of legitimate public interest. Which it is.Casino_Royale said:
Yep. That's what's going to bring about a change of Government in the United Kingdom after 11 years.IanB2 said:
That the clown would rather refund the downing street decorating donors, than reveal who they are, does make who they might be an important question, of legitimate public interest.Casino_Royale said:
No. I'm on record here (repeatedly) for attacking the self-interest, cronyism and low-level corruption of this administration - and, I think Boris only cares about himself.Jonathan said:Casino_Royale said:
No-one gives a toss what Cummings says about Boris. People think the former is an off-the-wall sociopath who dislikes everyone and the latter an opportunistic chancer who professes to like everyone, but is actually a ruthless politican. It's all priced in already.IanB2 said:
Cummo’s account seems the most credible, both at face value and because of the detail backing it up, and the offer to provide further evidence and answer questions.Scott_xP said:My bit on Boris Johnson deciding to start a war with Dominic Cummings https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/23/boris-johnsons-text-addiction-dominic-cummings
Which puts us in the position where the PM personally decided to get his hands dirty phoning the press to spread what he knew were a pack of lies. Presumably to deflect attention away from one of Carrie’s friends.
Total Westminster bubble story. The journalists are too close to the action and getting overexcited and the opposition too desperate to believe they have a chance to take the Government down.
Somehow don’t think you would be saying this if the leaks had come from Blair or Brown’s Downing St.
This is clearly serious and more than a bubble story. It contains preferential treatment for donors , Tories ‘using Covid’ , accusations of madness and toxicity at the heart of government.
I appreciate you want it to go away, not least because it questions why on Earth anyone can support this.
But, that's not going to dent Government support because their policies and values are simply far more in tune with the electorate. It will only do so once the opposition have already got to an electable position first.
Downing Street decorators.
Who handed over money to the PM to decorate his home is a question of legitimate public interest.0 -
I don't think the Cummings/Johnson battle will be a game-changer, but I am confused and have been from the start as to why Johnson started it. He must have known that Cummings would fire back very publicly, and that the media would love it. And while it's all a bit 'Westminster Village' for the average voter, its still newspaper headlines which aren't exactly helpful. It's not like this has moved us on from a terrible news cycle for Johnson. Why did he ever get this started?rottenborough said:
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
This is extraordinary and risks getting lost.
@SamCoatesSky
says
@BorisJohnson
personally phoned newspaper editors to brief that Cummings had leaked his messages.4
This discussion has been closed.