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Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332

    Well also the proposition in the US, where the bulk of their subscribers are is very different. For one monthly fee you can all of a sudden cut your cable / sat tv, and just sub to Disney+, Hulu Live and ESPN+.

    Netflix doesn't have the deals for live OTT tv or any live sports.

    If I was Sky, I would be shitting it. Disney+ have deadly combo more money than god, the best streaming tech based on restreaming masses of MLB games all at the same time and long history of expertise in buying sports rights and production, (unlike say Amazon who are amateur hour at sports production), to genuinely just blow them out of the water.
    Not so sure

    Disney revenue is around $65bn

    Amazon revenue is around $230bn

    (Netflix is $25bn)

    Amazon is so huge they dwarf even a mega-Corp like Disney. If Amazon REALLY focused on TV they could destroy everyone (except maybe Apple)

    The threat to British TV is clear, however, as you say. Sky’s revenue is $18bn. The BBC is about $7bn
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Good they're not needed. Move on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    If after the events of this week re; Government dodgy dealing it turns out not to be, I think I can buckle up for a Johnson premiership until the Grim Reaper calls me downstairs in around 20 years time
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Leon said:

    Again, offensive.

    Minorities are ‘people who are different’, ‘sharply other than the norm’. Jesus. They’re not different. They’re us. Humans.

    But you say everyone who isn’t white, straight (and male?) is ‘different’, and ‘sharply other than the norm’?

    What a horrible world you want us to live in. Everyone hyper aware of ‘sharply other’ people
    I didn't define the norm.

    But anyway, progress. So you're fine with "living your best authentic life" now, but are bridling at "sundry minorities".

    I agree that has an "off" ring to it and can go. Thanks for that particular steer. I won't use that phrase again. Let's replace with "people", which doesn't alter the meaning but makes it sound a lot better. It now reads -

    The inference that "we" in the democratic west are having our "moral fibre" - and thus our ability to compete with the totalitarian east - eroded by our overly precious concern for racial and gender equality and for the rights of people to live their best authentic lives.

    How does that look?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    Not so sure

    Disney revenue is around $65bn

    Amazon revenue is around $230bn

    (Netflix is $25bn)

    Amazon is so huge they dwarf even a mega-Corp like Disney. If Amazon REALLY focused on TV they could destroy everyone (except maybe Apple)

    The threat to British TV is clear, however, as you say. Sky’s revenue is $18bn. The BBC is about $7bn
    Amazon's app is really poor in comparison, in my experience.

    Which is weird as with Amazon's AWS experience they ought to be top of the class really, but they're just not.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    What has All Souls got to do with Rhodes?
    Nothing, I am just saying BLM arguably have a better case against All Souls than Oriel.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,063
    kinabalu said:

    I've got the opposite problem with tv drama. There's way too much good stuff for me to keep on top of. And I don't even have Netflix. I think I must be very slow getting through them compared to most. Either that or I'm seeing things as good that hardly anybody else does. Uncomfortable thought.
    Easily found out, check what your watching against imdb. If you are mostly getting 8+ you are selective with good taste. If you have much under 7 that you like you have poor taste or are not very selective.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    They were never needed. They would only be of any use when everyone had been offered a vaccine, but our take up rates were so high that by that time they would be as much practical use as Gavin Williamson. The issue was whether they would be introduced.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,063

    I'd take an eight point deficit at the moment. It seems about right. However I also believe Boris opening shops and pubs might explain the YouGov. It could be a post release Stockholm syndrome.
    Longer days, a bit of sunshine this week too.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    Nothing, I am just saying BLM arguably have a better case against All Souls than Oriel.
    As Rhodes was not a slave trader or owner you may be right.

    If the building were just named after him no one would have noticed.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    edited April 2021
    Duplicate post
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    edited April 2021
    Quite right the Duke of Gloucester should be at Philip's funeral - he could easily have been the King today.

    All it would have needed would have been for George VI not to have had any children and current Duke of Gloucester would now be King.

    Also he's the Queen and Philip's generation - Dukes of Gloucester and Kent and Princess Alexandra are all their generation - everyone else are the kids. I would have thought everyone would want their own generation at their funeral as a priority as they are your contemporaries - though Prince Michael of Kent misses out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125

    Nothing, I am just saying BLM arguably have a better case against All Souls than Oriel.
    How come they’ve overlooked Lloyds of London? I would have thought one way and another they would have been the perfect target.

    Or have they campaigned against it and I simply not noticed?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,352

    Longer days, a bit of sunshine this week too.
    Plus the kids are back at school.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 738
    Note that Survation’s fieldwork ended three days before YouGov’s, for what it’s worth.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,983
    Oh no, I was so looking forward to a by election in Haltemprice and Howden.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    ridaligo said:

    Why even bother publishing the data if the roadmap is set in stone? A waste of everyone's time - we might as well just sit here and count the days.
    The roadmap says lots of things like "this will happen no earlier than...". It's the plan if everything happens as we expect it to.

    If we get bad news, the roadmap gets pushed back.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    If I were a bettor I wouldn't touch anything with implications of longevity.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,125
    Foss said:

    Plus the kids are back at school.
    How many times do I have to explain that not all schools have the same Easter holidays? The majority of counties go back *next* week.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 2021

    Easily found out, check what your watching against imdb. If you are mostly getting 8+ you are selective with good taste. If you have much under 7 that you like you have poor taste or are not very selective.
    Right, thanks. That's a useful resource. Just done a quick sample of some I've watched and enjoyed recently. I have some high and some low. In my defence the low ones are as I'd rate them too. So I kind of have good taste but bad habits, if you see what I mean. I'm capable of enjoying some right old trash.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,063
    A question on the vaccine trials. As far as I can tell they havent looked at things like alcohol consumption in the period prior to or after the vaccination. Why not? I would have thought they should be collecting as much info about participants lifestyles (smoking, alcohol, diet, exercise, sleep) etc as is practical.

    A simple daily or weekly online questionnaire would surely tell us lots? Fortunately the vaccines seem very effective regardless, but if they had been effective only if minimal alcohol was consumed around the vaccination date we would not have known this key fact.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    Very sad that actor Helen McCrory has died aged 52.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,063
    kinabalu said:

    Right, thanks. That's a useful resource. Just done a quick sample of some I've watched and enjoyed recently. I have some high and some low. In my defence the low ones are as I'd rate them too. So I kind of have good taste but bad habits, if you see what I mean. I'm capable of enjoying some right old trash.
    Nothing wrong with that, if you enjoy it, you enjoy it, which is the point of entertainment. But obviously right old trash is far more commonly available than the better shows.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876

    Amazon's app is really poor in comparison, in my experience.

    Which is weird as with Amazon's AWS experience they ought to be top of the class really, but they're just not.
    They are very good at functionality - AWS is horrific as a user experience.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,972
    Stocky said:

    Which town in the UK has the highest annual temperature in combination with low rainfall. I may move there. In Essex/Kent maybe?
    We claim the most sun, and our botanic garden manages to grow plants from Australasia and South Africa in our open air microclimate. But I doubt we can claim low rainfall, and certainly not low wind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    edited April 2021
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK case summary

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    They are very good at functionality - AWS is horrific as a user experience.
    Fair point.

    If I was Sky I would be more worried about Disney bidding on the Premier League than Amazon.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK R

    from case data

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    From hospital admissions data

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    Nothing wrong with that, if you enjoy it, you enjoy it, which is the point of entertainment. But obviously right old trash is far more commonly available than the better shows.
    Yep. So with that, plus my plodding pace as I deal with each series, rewinding to catch bits again, pausing to discuss with my wife, missing some evenings altogether due to other things, I think we have the answer. And I've never even seen Sopranos, Breaking Bad, The Wire, Mad Men, Thrones, The Crown, any of that. Life's too short for Netflix - statement of literal truth in my case not the saying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    Age related data scaled to 100K population

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    Very sad about helen Mcrory

    Blistering performances in the first two series of Peaky Blinders

    But has anyone died after a ‘cowardly, half hearted battle with cancer’?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    UK vaccinations

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421
    Foss said:

    Plus the kids are back at school.
    Not until Monday here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,876
    England CFR

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,097
    Leon said:

    Not so sure

    Disney revenue is around $65bn

    Amazon revenue is around $230bn

    (Netflix is $25bn)

    Amazon is so huge they dwarf even a mega-Corp like Disney. If Amazon REALLY focused on TV they could destroy everyone (except maybe Apple)

    The threat to British TV is clear, however, as you say. Sky’s revenue is $18bn. The BBC is about $7bn
    While that's true, don't forget that Amazon has to pay the maker of the dildo that you order from them. Outside of the insanely profitable Amazon Web Services, they are a lower gross margin business that Disney and Netflix.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,421

    Positive tests down
    Admissions down
    Deaths down
    Testing up

    Tory lead down
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Just had a pub report from the some of the young free and single at our place - and its carnage out there.

    They managed to snag a booking at a floating pub (!!) on a London canal but the pub's booking system crashed and they let too many on board. Real problems with social distancing ensued and issues with the hundreds of people walking along the towpaths looking for last minute cancellations.

    Even so plenty of bonhomie and good natured bants apparently and you tend to meet loads of people who are essentially in the same boat (no pun intended).

    They are heading for the same place tonight as apparently alternatives do not exist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,538
    Russia has effectively expelled the US Ambassador after telling him to "go home for consultations" and it will ban the embassy from employing Russians.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. So with that, plus my plodding pace as I deal with each series, rewinding to catch bits again, pausing to discuss with my wife, missing some evenings altogether due to other things, I think we have the answer. And I've never even seen Sopranos, Breaking Bad, The Wire, Mad Men, Thrones, The Crown, any of that. Life's too short for Netflix - statement of literal truth in my case not the saying.
    You’ve just listed six of the best drama series ever made. By common consent.

    So, yes, you really are missing out. I only wish I had such treats in store

    As an aside I once read the pilot, ‘episode one’ scripts for about 30 of the greatest dramas ever made, British and American (including all these here listed)

    The pilot episode of Mad Men is astonishingly good. The characters leap off the page, you see the tensions immediately, the period is captured with bravura skill, the dialogue is dry, witty, smart, revealing, the pacy narrative drive is perfectly parked at the end.

    Few scripts are a work of art in themselves. They are just blueprints. The pilot script for Mad Men is an exception
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Oh dear

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/16/sturgeon-flounders-when-asked-to-explain-economic-benefits-of-independence/

    Nearly as poor as the attempted answer hr colleague tried to give on the Scottish currency recently
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    rcs1000 said:

    While that's true, don't forget that Amazon has to pay the maker of the dildo that you order from them. Outside of the insanely profitable Amazon Web Services, they are a lower gross margin business that Disney and Netflix.
    Indeed. But if any western mega-company has shown innovation and growth potential in the last few years it is Amazon

    They basically invented the Home Assistant market with Alexa, and they still dominate

    https://londonlovesbusiness.com/amazon-echo-dominates-smart-speaker-market/

    That should have been Apple or Google. It was Amazon
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    Very sad about helen Mcrory

    Blistering performances in the first two series of Peaky Blinders

    But has anyone died after a ‘cowardly, half hearted battle with cancer’?

    Well, my brother passed well before the timescales they gave him.

    I took that as a plus though as he avoided the worst of the pain and suffering
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    ydoethur said:

    Stokes out of New Zealand Tests:

    Ben Stokes set to miss New Zealand Tests with broken finger
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/england-vs-nz-2021-ben-stokes-set-to-miss-new-zealand-tests-with-broken-finger-1259265

    Buttler and the Curran brothers also appear to be unavailable.

    Good news for Craig Overton and Ben Foakes?

    Got my first game on sunday - maybe the selectors are looking for a 48 year old wicket keeper who normally plies his trade in Wilts Division 7?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    Floater said:

    Well, my brother passed well before the timescales they gave him.

    I took that as a plus though as he avoided the worst of the pain and suffering
    I’m glad he was spared. Sorry for your loss
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    Very sad about helen Mcrory

    Blistering performances in the first two series of Peaky Blinders

    But has anyone died after a ‘cowardly, half hearted battle with cancer’?

    So you're not happy with "heroic" there from Damian Lewis. I'm liking this bearing down on "off" language from you today even though I was on the sharp end of it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    Total patient count still falling fairly rapidly, and approaching the 2,000 barrier. The low point after the first wave was just over 800 in early September (when ventilator cases were almost down to nothing and deaths were averaging in single figures per day.) So, we have a way to go, but things are heading in the right direction.

    Of course, whether any of this will be good enough for the Government and the scientists remains to be seen.
    I know this is a stressful period but there has been nothing to suggest that the opening up timetable will be delayed (once you close your ears to the constant media chatter). I think we could go faster, but for once they have set up a plan and seem to be sticking to it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Floater said:

    Oh dear

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/16/sturgeon-flounders-when-asked-to-explain-economic-benefits-of-independence/

    Nearly as poor as the attempted answer hr colleague tried to give on the Scottish currency recently

    The problem for Sturgeon is that she's been banging on about how brexit will never have any economic benefits that its basically now impossible for her to sell any economic benefits of leaving the UK, given how similar the process will be.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    I thought we did this morning!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,332
    kinabalu said:

    So you're not happy with "heroic" there from Damian Lewis. I'm liking this bearing down on "off" language from you today even though I was on the sharp end of it.
    I’m having a bad lockdown day, I confess. I still get them from time to time. When everything seems pointless and endless, simultaneously, and life is sucked of joy. And the marginal gains in freedom appear cruelly trivial: beer gardens are open but it’s still cold, and they’re all booked, gyms have re-opened but whats the purpose in getting fit?


    I’ve had a decent week in the main, but I can still be hit by these shoddy lockdown moods, almost without warning. It’s a strange psychic rollercoaster

    Hence my willingness to argue about anything and everything, all day, on here
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    I know this is a stressful period but there has been nothing to suggest that the opening up timetable will be delayed (once you close your ears to the constant media chatter). I think we could go faster, but for once they have set up a plan and seem to be sticking to it.
    You're probably right, but I'm suspicious and cynical. I dare say I overdo it sometimes, but then again would anybody trust everything that the Government says?

    And even if the last two steps happen on time, I'm still concerned about how many rules and interventions may be left in place after June 21st.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2021

    Disney+ has only been going a year. 0 to 100m subs in a year is stunning. Took Netflix something like 10 years when they switched from DVDs to streaming to get to that number.
    Disney had a different streaming service called DisneyLife before plus existed and migrated the accounts from it to + when + opened.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    Leon said:

    Very sad about helen Mcrory

    Blistering performances in the first two series of Peaky Blinders

    But has anyone died after a ‘cowardly, half hearted battle with cancer’?

    Careful - nothing to be gained by pointing this kind of thing out, even if true. Same about the Duke, last week a dodgy old guy who made racist and distinctly un-woke comment, now a leader of the green revolution, and someone who knowingly used language to stir up comment...
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    edited April 2021
    .

    UK deaths

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    May be a bit early to say, but I think deaths may be trending downwards again.

    Taking the average data lag up until two days ago:


    Still very early to say, as it's also compatible with hitting a plateau at 22-23 on the 5th and wobbling around that number ever since. If the next three days continue to look like a gentle glide down, it'll be useful.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    The problem for Sturgeon is that she's been banging on about how brexit will never have any economic benefits that its basically now impossible for her to sell any economic benefits of leaving the UK, given how similar the process will be.
    Golden centuries of peace and prosperity await once Scotland exchanges the unbearable yoke of being 8% of one Union that hoses it down with money and powers for being 1% of another Union that sucks money and powers out of it.

    And anyway, TORIES!!!!!!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,097
    MaxPB said:

    The problem for Sturgeon is that she's been banging on about how brexit will never have any economic benefits that its basically now impossible for her to sell any economic benefits of leaving the UK, given how similar the process will be.
    Similar process? 10x worse and more complicated
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,097
    Alistair said:

    Disney had a different streaming service called DisneyLife before plus existed and migrated the accounts from it to + when + opened.
    The thing that’s really elevated Disney + recently (as well as star) is its marvel series (wandavision, falcon and winter soldier). Superb.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Leon said:

    You’ve just listed six of the best drama series ever made. By common consent.

    So, yes, you really are missing out. I only wish I had such treats in store

    As an aside I once read the pilot, ‘episode one’ scripts for about 30 of the greatest dramas ever made, British and American (including all these here listed)

    The pilot episode of Mad Men is astonishingly good. The characters leap off the page, you see the tensions immediately, the period is captured with bravura skill, the dialogue is dry, witty, smart, revealing, the pacy narrative drive is perfectly parked at the end.

    Few scripts are a work of art in themselves. They are just blueprints. The pilot script for Mad Men is an exception
    In fact, of the 6 mentioned, Mad Men is the one I'd most likely choose to do. It's all about character and atmosphere for me these days. I can't follow plots unless they're quite simple.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,684
    @PickardJE: Breaking on @ft website:

    David Cameron pitched the services of supply-chain financing group Greensill Capital to a… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383100673273827337
  • TresTres Posts: 2,787
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. So with that, plus my plodding pace as I deal with each series, rewinding to catch bits again, pausing to discuss with my wife, missing some evenings altogether due to other things, I think we have the answer. And I've never even seen Sopranos, Breaking Bad, The Wire, Mad Men, Thrones, The Crown, any of that. Life's too short for Netflix - statement of literal truth in my case not the saying.
    One good thing about lockdown is I managed to get through the DVD boxsets I had accumulated over the years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    Leon said:

    I’m having a bad lockdown day, I confess. I still get them from time to time. When everything seems pointless and endless, simultaneously, and life is sucked of joy. And the marginal gains in freedom appear cruelly trivial: beer gardens are open but it’s still cold, and they’re all booked, gyms have re-opened but whats the purpose in getting fit?

    I’ve had a decent week in the main, but I can still be hit by these shoddy lockdown moods, almost without warning. It’s a strange psychic rollercoaster

    Hence my willingness to argue about anything and everything, all day, on here
    Well all a person can do is try and live their best authentic life.

    I'll cheer you up with a woke joke. Prove you and John Cleese wrong about it not being possible.

    Why does David Starkey never buy a packet of midget gems?

    Cos there's too many damn blacks.

    :smile:
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