Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely G

1457910

Comments

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    MaxPB said:

    We're going to get there. I think there are now enough Tory MPs to force Boris into a full unlockdown fuck the consequences in June becuase the vaccine programme is producing the right results. Fearties like Leon and others will just have to live with a few unvaccinated people in restaurants and theatres.
    Why would fearties be bothered anyway? They themselves will be vaccinated.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited April 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    I once worked on an R107 SL and the quality of the materials was amazingly high. I'd be amazed if MB made a profit selling it. It did drive like dog shit though. You can pretty much tell the exact moment MB gave up on quality as the defining brand value with the launch of the W211 E class.
    That sounds right. She likes the way it drives but I reckon it’s crap; it meanders all over the road, which doesn’t appear to be her driving, and is uncomfortable cornering as well as having limited headroom such that I can’t sit up straight in it. But it does look good and the tech on it is amazing for its age. When you lift the bonnet it’s full of stuff, like a modern car, whereas my old sunbeam you could almost climb into the space around the engine.

    She said she had a problem with the idle speed and I said I’d come take a look, thinking it would be a mechanical cord running from the pedal to the fuel intake and you just had to fiddle with the nut, but it wasn’t. How it works I didn’t manage to fathom.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    algarkirk said:

    Major is a great bloke and all that but catastrophic with regard to: ERM, where we should never have entertained the idea of going in. The ERM was the forerunner of the Euro. If it had never started we would still be in the EU. If we had joined it the outlook is unthinkable.

    And Maastricht. From today's perspective the idea of a Treaty in which every person in the EU becomes an EU citizen is big and bold. It ought to have been vetoed immediately to signal what the UKs long term goals were. But if acceptable to a government (and of course real as opposed to tactical opposition only came from the Tory right and a handful of Labour traditionalists) a referendum should have been the minimum qualification.

    It has taken decades to sort both nation and Tory party from this sorry mess.

    The European Coal & Steel Communicty, the EEC, the EC and the EU's currencies were linked to each other throughout the entire histories of the organisations, in an attempt to avoid the competitive devaluations of the 1930.

    Until the early 1970s, this was via the Bretton Woods agreement, then it was "The Snake", which evolved into the ERM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    MaxPB said:


    Novavax is the big question marks I've heard their data came in slower than expected due to crashing incidence rates in the UK .

    It'd be tricky to get a trial of a new vaccine done in the UK now.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    You seem to have gone all weird, Colonel Topping. I'm getting a bit scared now.
    All the best colonels develop a bit of a Kurtz manner...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    Londoners. Letting the side down again.
    Question is which nominator do the Londoners hiding out into the provinces go into? Some of the local numbers for the provinces are so high as to suggest fleeing city types getting their vacs in the country aren’t being reckoned back into the London stats
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Stocky said:

    Why would fearties be bothered anyway? They themselves will be vaccinated.
    My fear all the way through has been that I caught another illness, or had a road accident or something, which proved impossible to get treatment for in hospital due to them being totally pre-occupied with treated Covid cases. That remains a concern even after my low risk of suffering from the disease itself is reduced to almost zero by the vaccine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Pulpstar said:

    It'd be tricky to get a trial of a new vaccine done in the UK now.
    I think lots are moving to single blind trials for that reason and comparing results to known vaccine efficacy for an over/under type result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    edited April 2021

    Not from one dose, unfortunately.
    As well as the SIREN studies

    image

    The Israelis have confirmed the above in real life results.

    image

    (NB - the second dose hospitalisation figure has massive confidence intervals due to the low numbers involved; it is perfectly feasible that your statement could still be true for second-dose-plus-14 days).

    But 1 dose and 3-5 weeks gives:
    - infections down 60%
    - Hospitalisations down 80%
    - Deaths down 85%

    Which is fantastic, but shouldn't be oversold.
    I'm slightly sceptical of these numbers because - with J&J and AZ - immunity builds over a relatively long period of time. (Pfizer is different, but then given the small gaps between doses there, how much one dose history is there?)

    Given the limited amount of time people have had any these vaccines, it means a lot more of the data is for people who have been vaccinated for small periods of time, which means that hospitisation rates are overstated.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    Dura_Ace said:

    I once worked on an R107 SL and the quality of the materials was amazingly high. I'd be amazed if MB made a profit selling it. It did drive like dog shit though. You can pretty much tell the exact moment MB gave up on quality as the defining brand value with the launch of the W211 E class.
    Mine's just an auto saloon. Nothing special - but it is to me. So many years and virtually no trouble, that means something. I impute the quality of loyalty to it as if it were a dog I'd had for ages.

    But as regards the innards I'm the anti-you. I barely know the cylinder head gasket from the spare tyre.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    AlistairM said:

    A company is making a food supplement for cows to reduce their methane emissions:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1382705905570041863

    Surely given the number of humans on the planet we must produce quite a bit too. How long before this will be the latest green trend to reduce flatulence?

    If we ate a diet exclusively of grass then I imagine our methane emissions might rival those of cattle. As we don't, then we don't.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited April 2021
    I was awaiting judgment at Stratford today and went around Westfield.

    Only three parts of the site were busy:

    1. The Covid vaccination centre
    2. Primark
    3. Apple

    Quite the range of price points! Although if we're being cynical, I think Apple quite like the idea of people queuing out the door.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, that's good for us too as we're due 17m of them which will cover 8.5m under 50s. Novavax is the big question marks I've heard their data came in slower than expected due to crashing incidence rates in the UK but their final submission to the MHRA and FDA has now been made and approval is expected imminently, deliveries to follow about two weeks later for the UK and about four weeks later for the US.
    If I didn't have a day job, I'd download the spreadsheet myself and run some analysis. It has refusals by country by vaccine type as well in there, so you could pull out some really interesting stuff there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    Endillion said:

    My fear all the way through has been that I caught another illness, or had a road accident or something, which proved impossible to get treatment for in hospital due to them being totally pre-occupied with treated Covid cases. That remains a concern even after my low risk of suffering from the disease itself is reduced to almost zero by the vaccine.
    I’m sitting in Barts now, and the nurse tells me they have a significant backlog but can’t begin clearing it because so many patients still aren’t willing to physically come here. The place feels less than half busy compared to pre-pandemic.

    Given Barts specialises in a range of serious conditions, you’d get treated here now if you were willing to come.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    kinabalu said:

    You seem to have gone all weird, Colonel Topping. I'm getting a bit scared now.
    So I take it you are backing out of your proposed bet. No shame in that. We'll leave it there.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    I think lots are moving to single blind trials for that reason and comparing results to known vaccine efficacy for an over/under type result.
    Is there a reason they don't just do their trials in Brazil or elsewhere instead?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly sceptical of these numbers because - with J&J and AZ - immunity builds over a relatively long period of time. (Pfizer is different, but then given the small gaps between doses there, how much one dose history is there?)

    Given the limited amount of time people have had any these vaccines, it means a lot more of the data is for people who have been vaccinated for small periods of time, which means that hospitisation rates are overstated.

    They also don't take into account vaccines reducing the incidence rate, the cumulative effect is probably a lot higher than 80% and 85% because the risk of being infected is significantly lower when only 1/1000 people are active spreaders vs 1 in 25 as we had in January.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    AlistairM said:

    A company is making a food supplement for cows to reduce their methane emissions:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1382705905570041863

    Surely given the number of humans on the planet we must produce quite a bit too. How long before this will be the latest green trend to reduce flatulence?

    Interestingly (if you're interested in that sort of thing) the cow is the only animal on earth that exceeds the human for biomass. (With the possible exception of Antarctic krill, depending on how you classify it). So assuming that volume of methane produced is roughly proportional to biomass, the cow produces the most.
    No doubt diet has a large part to do with it too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,234

    I was awaiting judgment at Stratford today and went around Westfield.

    Only three parts of the site were busy:

    1. The Covid vaccination centre
    2. Primark
    3. Apple

    Quite the range of price points! Although if we're being cynical, I think Apple quite like the idea of people queuing out the door.

    Apple have behaved rather well in this epidemic - closed stores early and brought in well organised queuing etc when they reopened.

    I've used the Westfield one twice in the past year - fixing the children's devices. They even had rules on the types of mask - and would offer you a decent disposable, if yours didn't meet their standards.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Nothing compares to shin of beef slowly casseroled.
    Cooked for seven hours and fifteen days ?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    edited April 2021
    IanB2 said:

    That’s odd, because her SL is way ahead of its time in terms of tech. Not compared with nowadays, of course, but it must have been very advanced when it was made in the 70s, compared to my old sunbeam made in Derby during the dying days of the UK car industry. When the same body parts turned to rust having been replaced once, I knew its time was up.

    She reckons her car is worth £35,000. I advertised mine for £50 for parts or free for restoration, and gave it to a guy down in Margate who did an amazing job restoring it to good as new. But he was the sort of guy who would be driving it twice a year at thirty miles an hour to an exhibition, whereas I had taken it onto the beach at the Med and over to the west coast of Ireland, and kept it on the street along the Archway Road.
    I'm like you in that sense. No kid gloves for a car. Use it and don't worry about it. To me, they look better as they get a bit 'lived in', a bit battered even. Like leather jackets and tweed caps.

    Speaking of "lived in", I did once live in a BMW 318i for 6 days, a company car, but that's another tale.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    All the best colonels develop a bit of a Kurtz manner...
    Blimpish comment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    kinabalu said:

    Mine's just an auto saloon. Nothing special - but it is to me. So many years and virtually no trouble, that means something. I impute the quality of loyalty to it as if it were a dog I'd had for ages.

    But as regards the innards I'm the anti-you. I barely know the cylinder head gasket from the spare tyre.
    If there’s a loud bang and the visibility suddenly goes poor, you just need to work out whether it’s smoke or steam.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Is there a reason they don't just do their trials in Brazil or elsewhere instead?
    No, most are picking Brazil, but for a gen 1 vaccine it would be up against a variant which will give lower efficacy.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Nigelb said:

    Blimpish comment.
    Your post may contain a colonel of truth - you're keen as Mustard today.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited April 2021
    Over the last few days we have received election leaflets from all the main parties except the conservatives.

    However, at lunch time we each received two personalised letters by post.

    The first from Andrew RT Davies, Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, appealed for our vote with various promises

    However, the second communication came from the 'Rt Hon Boris Johnson MP, Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party' personally endorsing our local conservative candidate by name for the Senedd, affirming the Welsh Conservative Party manifesto and interestingly stating that

    'I am ready to help the Welsh Conservatives put their plans into action'

    He concludes by saying

    'Lets defeat this virus, and deliver the jobs, hospitals, and schools that Wales needs'

    Yours sincerely,

    Boris Johnson
    Prime Minister

    No hesitation at all in promoting 'Boris', defeating the virus and 22 years of labour government in Wales

    And of course both communications were bi lingual as required

    The declaration at the bottom states your name and address was obtained from the Register of Electors

    Interesting

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited April 2021
    Deaths dropping.

    Hospitalisations dropping.

    Positive tests dropping.

    Testing rising.

    Four star!

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    kinabalu said:

    I'm like you in that sense. No kid gloves for a car. Use it and don't worry about it. To me, they look better as they get a bit 'lived in', a bit battered even. Like leather jackets and tweed caps.

    Speaking of "lived in", I did once live in a BMW 318i for 6 days, a company car, but that's another tale.
    With hindsight I was young and foolish; had some hard to find part failed on the continent, it would have been seriously inconvenient and seriously expensive. And I did worry about it; it always ran hot, and in the south of France during most of the day it was only safe to drive it downhill.

    It broke down lots of times, but always on the M1, normally near Luton. Being so old it was, I guess, set in its ways.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Deaths trending down WoW again now that the Easter effect is out of the system.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Your post may contain a colonel of truth - you're keen as Mustard today.
    As a pun topic, it's a real coup for a Greek specialist.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    @TimSpector Despite “fears” around SA variants in London the rates of new cases dropped even further today on ZOË app - showing that we should be far less gloomy and vaccines are working - thanks for logging !
  • Apple have behaved rather well in this epidemic - closed stores early and brought in well organised queuing etc when they reopened.

    I've used the Westfield one twice in the past year - fixing the children's devices. They even had rules on the types of mask - and would offer you a decent disposable, if yours didn't meet their standards.
    This is true but with regards to Apple, yes they have fewer staff on purpose to make the stores busier.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Apologies to @SandyRentool

    I was unfair to him this morning.

    Explanation is that I was very grumpy due to the vax knocking the stuffing out of me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    So I take it you are backing out of your proposed bet. No shame in that. We'll leave it there.
    We can but we don't have to.

    If instead of just repeatedly barking "how much?" you were to frame the bet (around your army rank) you're thinking off, we can do it for a modest sum if we both like the look of it.

    It needs to come from you because it's about your personal info and I don't want to be striking the wrong note. I like the old banter but I also like to be sensitive to people.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    @TimSpector Despite “fears” around SA variants in London the rates of new cases dropped even further today on ZOË app - showing that we should be far less gloomy and vaccines are working - thanks for logging !

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    Nigelb said:

    Cooked for seven hours and fifteen days ?

    Lol...

    Bought from.my local butcher 6-7 hrs slow cook. Not all butchers are the same and Supermarket meat is generally ugh....and expensive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited April 2021

    Your post may contain a colonel of truth - you're keen as Mustard today.
    So good he’s almost finger licking?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
    AND (most importantly) they also help prevent its spread.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    kinabalu said:

    We can but we don't have to.

    If instead of just repeatedly barking "how much?" you were to frame the bet (around your army rank) you're thinking off, we can do it for a modest sum if we both like the look of it.

    It needs to come from you because it's about your personal info and I don't want to be striking the wrong note. I like the old banter but I also like to be sensitive to people.
    £1,000 that I wasn't a full colonel.

    If I was I pay you £1,000; if I wasn't you pay me £1,000.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
    Not sure people grasp this though. Did you see Nick Palmer’s post earlier?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    MaxPB said:

    They also don't take into account vaccines reducing the incidence rate, the cumulative effect is probably a lot higher than 80% and 85% because the risk of being infected is significantly lower when only 1/1000 people are active spreaders vs 1 in 25 as we had in January.
    That's a massively important point.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    rcs1000 said:

    The European Coal & Steel Communicty, the EEC, the EC and the EU's currencies were linked to each other throughout the entire histories of the organisations, in an attempt to avoid the competitive devaluations of the 1930.

    They were economically illiterate in doing so, since the "competitive devaluations" actually amounted to a large worldwide easing of monetary conditions, enabling the world economy to start to recover from 1932-3. If major countries had been committed to hard currencies throughout the 1930s, the depression would have lasted even longer.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    Endillion said:

    My fear all the way through has been that I caught another illness, or had a road accident or something, which proved impossible to get treatment for in hospital due to them being totally pre-occupied with treated Covid cases. That remains a concern even after my low risk of suffering from the disease itself is reduced to almost zero by the vaccine.
    My understanding - including a brief visit myself for some tests - is that other departments in hospitals have been working fairly normally. Some wards were dedicated totally to Covid and leave was cancelled but there was never a point at which they actually turned people away - perhaps partly because people were very reluctant to go in except in dire emergency.

    The reason vaccinated people will be bothered is that they don't want to get seriously ill, even if they are no longer at much risk of dying. To risk long Covid merely so you can see a movie in a cinema instead of on screen doesn't seem a reasonable risk. When it becomes rare to encounter anyone who's got the bug, that concern will go away, in the same way that nobody in the UK hesitates to go out for fear of catching Ebola.

    It's all a more or less rational balancing of perceived risk with expected pleasure and very individual. We shouldn't sneer at each other ("fearties") for making those choices.
  • Apologies to @SandyRentool

    I was unfair to him this morning.

    Explanation is that I was very grumpy due to the vax knocking the stuffing out of me.

    A really nice thing to say and it does seem the vaccine can have quite some side effects

    I know my wife and I were shattered the day after, and my daughter had to go to bed for 36 hours before recovering

    And well done you
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
    I agree but I'd close the border with anywhere not at our level of cases/vaccinations (and so all of Europe).

    The way I see it is that even if the vaccine is 90% effective - if you're travelling to places with more than 10x our case rate then effectively its like you're here unvaccinated.

    France has a case rate 27x higher than the UK's per 100k - and their positivity rate of tests is 8.8% so they're likely wildly underestimating their true number of cases, the UK's is 0.2%.

    So its frankly ridiculous to me that France etc aren't on the red list.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
    It’s frustrating that first doses have slowed down so much because we’re tantalisingly close to the same level of coverage Israel has reached.
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    The underlying rationale, as I understand it from @Andy_Cooke's very helpful posts yesterday, is that our current ability to suppress R through immunity (the R impairment rate) comes in at about a factor of 2 right now. By mid-May, it'll rise to 2.5, then shoot up after that point until late June, which is when it hits the 4.5 or so that we need to suppress transmission without restrictions.

    If anyone wants to amend that analysis with their own data, please go ahead. But as it stands, it seems to back up the existing timetable quite closely.
    Surprisingly I don't have my own COVID model so I can't play with it to change the desired output and create alternative scenarios. That's what's missing here from SAGE ... transparency about the alternate scenarios. You never know, there might be an alternative set of assumptions and outputs that are acceptable from a risk perspective and mean we can end lockdown much earlier.

    There's a long time between now and the end of June ... are we going to slavishly follow a model that never seems to get updated real time to reflect the current reality? And even if it did get updated and the data showed we could ease restrictions sooner the timeline can't be brought forward anyway. Sorry, that's bullshit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    MaxPB said:

    Absolutely right and both the Pfizer and AZ vaccines provide very good protection against severe disease and hospitalisation risk from the SA and Brazilian variants. The variant panic is completely unnecessary. Though I'd still completey close the border to Africa and South America until we're at herd immunity and have gen 2 vaccines being delivered.
    Yes, a great deal of data is accumulating which shows that some of those vaccinated do get reinfected, and even go on to get severe disease and die. But not that many.

    Many millions have been vaccinated against the coronavirus; 396 were later hospitalized with Covid-19
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/health/breakthrough-infections-covid-vaccines-cdc/index.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    Fishing said:

    They were economically illiterate in doing so, since the "competitive devaluations" actually amounted to a large worldwide easing of monetary conditions, enabling the world economy to start to recover from 1932-3. If major countries had been committed to hard currencies throughout the 1930s, the depression would have lasted even longer.
    Hang on: let's do a thought experiment here.

    Imagine there was a world with two countries: France and England.

    If France competitively devalues against England, how does that result in worldwide easing of monetary conditions?

    The easing of monetary conditions you are referring to refers only to repayment of debts, which occurred as countries gave up on the Gold Standard.

    But the competitive devaluations that happened in the 1930s when countries in Europe attempted to boost exports to each other by following the China model of fixing their currencies at below market rates to each other.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    algarkirk said:

    Major is a great bloke and all that but catastrophic with regard to: ERM, where we should never have entertained the idea of going in. The ERM was the forerunner of the Euro. If it had never started we would still be in the EU. If we had joined it the outlook is unthinkable.

    And Maastricht. From today's perspective the idea of a Treaty in which every person in the EU becomes an EU citizen is big and bold. It ought to have been vetoed immediately to signal what the UKs long term goals were. But if acceptable to a government (and of course real as opposed to tactical opposition only came from the Tory right and a handful of Labour traditionalists) a referendum should have been the minimum qualification.

    It has taken decades to sort both nation and Tory party from this sorry mess.

    That's all true. But I don't think the ERM and Maastricht are as much Major's fault - they were messes dropped on his lap by Lawson and Howe respectively, and the other pro-European Big Beasts of the Conservative Party. Given where the Party and the country were around 1989-90, it would not have been realistic to expect him to be even a Hague-style eurosceptic, let alone a Faragiste. Major's opponents in the leadership election were Heseltine and Hurd, after all, both even more europhile than he was.

    But his clinging to the shattered corpse of our EU membership today, when even Lawson has given that up, is less explicable..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816

    All the best colonels develop a bit of a Kurtz manner...
    It's a rank to watch out for. Either they plunge into the heart of darkness, grievously exploit enormous mid 20th century pop stars, or make billions selling very salty, hot greasy chicken pieces.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    kinabalu said:

    It's a rank to watch out for. Either they plunge into the heart of darkness, grievously exploit enormous mid 20th century pop stars, or make billions selling very salty, hot greasy chicken pieces.
    £1,000
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    It's a rank to watch out for. Either they plunge into the heart of darkness, grievously exploit enormous mid 20th century pop stars, or make billions selling very salty, hot greasy chicken pieces.
    Yes those are the general Pattons of behaviour
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    We're going to get there. I think there are now enough Tory MPs to force Boris into a full unlockdown fuck the consequences in June becuase the vaccine programme is producing the right results. Fearties like Leon and others will just have to live with a few unvaccinated people in restaurants and theatres.
    Is the roadmap not already pointed at a full unlockdown in June?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    edited April 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Hang on: let's do a thought experiment here.

    Imagine there was a world with two countries: France and England.

    If France competitively devalues against England, how does that result in worldwide easing of monetary conditions?

    Obviously it does not. It eases monetary conditions for France. But if England devalues, then France does, then England does, then worldwide monetary conditions are eased substantially.

    The alternative is ruinously high real interest rates and a catastrophic contraction in the world economy.

    See e.g. here

    https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/luekhi/0211.html




  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    My understanding - including a brief visit myself for some tests - is that other departments in hospitals have been working fairly normally. Some wards were dedicated totally to Covid and leave was cancelled but there was never a point at which they actually turned people away - perhaps partly because people were very reluctant to go in except in dire emergency.

    The reason vaccinated people will be bothered is that they don't want to get seriously ill, even if they are no longer at much risk of dying. To risk long Covid merely so you can see a movie in a cinema instead of on screen doesn't seem a reasonable risk. When it becomes rare to encounter anyone who's got the bug, that concern will go away, in the same way that nobody in the UK hesitates to go out for fear of catching Ebola.

    It's all a more or less rational balancing of perceived risk with expected pleasure and very individual. We shouldn't sneer at each other ("fearties") for making those choices.
    Do you mean UNvaccinated people?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited April 2021

    @TimSpector Despite “fears” around SA variants in London the rates of new cases dropped even further today on ZOË app - showing that we should be far less gloomy and vaccines are working - thanks for logging !

    According to the Zoe map, the only really worrying spots right now are County Durham, Walsall, Aberdeen, Anglesey, Dundee, Oldham, Moray, and parts of south Essex. With a few more minor hotspots in South Yorkshire, Northants, and South Wales. Otherwise most of the UK looks very good.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    It’s frustrating that first doses have slowed down so much because we’re tantalisingly close to the same level of coverage Israel has reached.
    It's not going to be long now, in two weeks everyone will be wondering what the slowdown was. Remember when the government said the government were saying no new first doses at all from March 29th onwards and no new age groups to be added in April. Yet here we are with probably 4-6m first doses for April and 45-49 year olds becoming eligible with 40-44 year olds waiting in the wings.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    It's not going to be long now, in two weeks everyone will be wondering what the slowdown was. Remember when the government said the government were saying no new first doses at all from March 29th onwards and no new age groups to be added in April. Yet here we are with probably 4-6m first doses for April and 45-49 year olds becoming eligible with 40-44 year olds waiting in the wings.
    I know it won't take long but its a shame we're so close to the threshold of 50% of the population being vaccinated, which would be a nice psychological landmark.

    At prior rates it would have taken less than a week to get there. Oh well, won't be long but it will be nice to do so.
  • Do you mean UNvaccinated people?
    I really do not want to upset you but Sky are now reporting

    London may face local restrictions after South African variant cases detected, expert says

    As reported yesterday, surge testing is taking place in the capital after cases of the worrying South African variant were discovered.

    The strain is of concern due to its apparent ability to evade existing vaccines.

    Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who sits on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies, said he hoped mass testing would keep the number of cases low.

    But, he warned, if those efforts were not as successful as hoped, rules may need to be tightened in some areas.

    "What we are looking at in south London is an example of what we’ll see now in the coming months, as we try our best to keep that variant out or at as low a level as we possibly can, because if these mass testing events don’t work that well, and we don’t know yet, I mean we’ll have to evaluate this one very carefully, then it’s possible that we’ll have to impose some sort of local restrictions back in place and nobody wants to do it,"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited April 2021
    Fishing said:

    That's all true. But I don't think the ERM and Maastricht are as much Major's fault - they were messes dropped on his lap by Lawson and Howe respectively, and the other pro-European Big Beasts of the Conservative Party. Given where the Party and the country were around 1989-90, it would not have been realistic to expect him to be even a Hague-style eurosceptic, let alone a Faragiste. Major's opponents in the leadership election were Heseltine and Hurd, after all, both even more europhile than he was.

    But his clinging to the shattered corpse of our EU membership today, when even Lawson has given that up, is less explicable..
    Like Johnson, Major was good at leaving the various factions thinking he sympathised with them, but whereas Johnson achieves this by telling everyone what they want to hear, Major did so by remaining cagey. Appearing to be the least pro-EU of the serious contenders cleverly got him the top job, but he went on to disappoint the sceptics, and his comments during and after the referendum suggest that he has been skilled at keeping his own views hidden when it suited.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I really do not want to upset you but Sky are now reporting

    London may face local restrictions after South African variant cases detected, expert says

    As reported yesterday, surge testing is taking place in the capital after cases of the worrying South African variant were discovered.

    The strain is of concern due to its apparent ability to evade existing vaccines.

    Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who sits on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies, said he hoped mass testing would keep the number of cases low.

    But, he warned, if those efforts were not as successful as hoped, rules may need to be tightened in some areas.

    "What we are looking at in south London is an example of what we’ll see now in the coming months, as we try our best to keep that variant out or at as low a level as we possibly can, because if these mass testing events don’t work that well, and we don’t know yet, I mean we’ll have to evaluate this one very carefully, then it’s possible that we’ll have to impose some sort of local restrictions back in place and nobody wants to do it,"
    Sky have been wrong a lot on this though. Maybe it would be better not to spend all day watching Sky News.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Deaths dropping.

    Hospitalisations dropping.

    Positive tests dropping.

    Testing rising.

    Four star!

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    On the map, the colour blue is now extinct - at Upper Tier AND Lower Tier.
    You have to burrow all the way down to MSOA level to get sufficient clumping to see blues. There's one solitary purple holdout at that level, from an outbreak of forty people in West Bridlington sending the incidence up in a population not much over 8,000.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I really do not want to upset you but Sky are now reporting

    London may face local restrictions after South African variant cases detected, expert says

    As reported yesterday, surge testing is taking place in the capital after cases of the worrying South African variant were discovered.

    The strain is of concern due to its apparent ability to evade existing vaccines.

    Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who sits on the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies, said he hoped mass testing would keep the number of cases low.

    But, he warned, if those efforts were not as successful as hoped, rules may need to be tightened in some areas.

    "What we are looking at in south London is an example of what we’ll see now in the coming months, as we try our best to keep that variant out or at as low a level as we possibly can, because if these mass testing events don’t work that well, and we don’t know yet, I mean we’ll have to evaluate this one very carefully, then it’s possible that we’ll have to impose some sort of local restrictions back in place and nobody wants to do it,"
    Oh f**k off no more restrictions domestically.

    If you want to prevent variants arriving then close the f***ing border.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280

    My understanding - including a brief visit myself for some tests - is that other departments in hospitals have been working fairly normally. Some wards were dedicated totally to Covid and leave was cancelled but there was never a point at which they actually turned people away - perhaps partly because people were very reluctant to go in except in dire emergency.

    The reason vaccinated people will be bothered is that they don't want to get seriously ill, even if they are no longer at much risk of dying. To risk long Covid merely so you can see a movie in a cinema instead of on screen doesn't seem a reasonable risk. When it becomes rare to encounter anyone who's got the bug, that concern will go away, in the same way that nobody in the UK hesitates to go out for fear of catching Ebola.

    It's all a more or less rational balancing of perceived risk with expected pleasure and very individual. We shouldn't sneer at each other ("fearties") for making those choices.
    You are sneering the other way with "To risk long Covid merely so you can see a movie in a cinema instead of on screen doesn't seem a reasonable risk."
  • Oh f**k off no more restrictions domestically.

    If you want to prevent variants arriving then close the f***ing border.
    I am only the messenger so not sure who you want to .................?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,419
    Fishing said:

    Obviously it does not. It eases monetary conditions for France. But if England devalues, then France does, then England does, then worldwide monetary conditions are eased substantially.

    The alternative is ruinously high real interest rates and a catastrophic contraction in the world economy.

    See e.g. here

    https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/luekhi/0211.html




    Right. So if France devalues against the UK, and then the UK devalues against France, then France devalues against the UK, then you get (pretending it's Pound-Franc):

    10
    5
    10
    5
    10
    5

    In what way is that resulting in easing of monetary conditions?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677



    Do you mean UNvaccinated people?

    No, was answering Max who was saying fearties wouldn't be bothered because they were vaccinated. There's still a non-trivial risk of illness, just a smaller one plus a negligible risk of death. How much that bothers you is individual.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I am only the messenger so not sure who you want to .................?
    The SAGE guy quoted.

    Anyone suggesting that can go f**k themselves with a rusty implement as far as I'm concerned. We're done domestically - if you want to control the variant then control the border and if you can't be arsed to do that then no more complaints.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Sky have been wrong a lot on this though. Maybe it would be better not to spend all day watching Sky News.
    Actually I was not watching Sky news

    I was reading BBC and Sky online and extracted this comment as interesting in view of some PB posters comments

    And Sky are quoting Robert Peston apparently
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    I know it won't take long but its a shame we're so close to the threshold of 50% of the population being vaccinated, which would be a nice psychological landmark.

    At prior rates it would have taken less than a week to get there. Oh well, won't be long but it will be nice to do so.
    At current rates, if the rates over the last week are sustained, we'll get there on the 24th of April.
    Or thereabouts.
    If Moderna ramps up faster, it should be a day or two sooner.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Oh f**k off no more restrictions domestically.

    If you want to prevent variants arriving then close the f***ing border.
    It's not going to happen, Sky have consistently been wrong on this stuff. The government has specifically said no more regional lockdowns or tiers becuase they don't work very well. They're just projecting their own alarmist stance on to the reporting of news, it's why they're wrong a lot.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    edited April 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    Right. So if France devalues against the UK, and then the UK devalues against France, then France devalues against the UK, then you get (pretending it's Pound-Franc):

    10
    5
    10
    5
    10
    5

    In what way is that resulting in easing of monetary conditions?
    Did you read the paper? Explains it very well.

    But if you can't be bothered, here is Barry Eichengreen:

    "In the 1930s, it is true, with one country after another depreciating its currency, no one ended up gaining competitiveness relative to anyone else. ... But this was not what mattered. What mattered was that one country after another moved to loosen monetary policy because it no longer had to worry about defending the exchange rate. And this monetary stimulus, felt worldwide, was probably the single most important factor initiating and sustaining economic recovery."

    The fetish for targeting the external, not the internal, value of currencies was probably the most harmful economic mistake of the last century.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Very promising data coming from the United States

    15:03

    Tiny number of infections among fully vaccinated people revealed by US health officials

    Just 5,800 cases of COVID-19 infection have been reported among the 66 million people who have been fully vaccinated in the US, officials have revealed.

    The Center for Disease Control and Infection say the number of cases – which equates to a rate of 0.008% of those who have completed a full course of jabs - is in line with expectations.

    Of the 5,800 cases, 396 (7%) required hospital treatment and 74 people died.

    The figures reflect what health authorities have consistently said about vaccination – that it does not offer complete protection against death and disease.

    And the CDC said in a statement to CNN: "To date, no unexpected patterns have been identified in case demographics or vaccine characteristics."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Actually I was not watching Sky news

    I was reading BBC and Sky online and extracted this comment as interesting in view of some PB posters comments

    And Sky are quoting Robert Peston apparently
    Peston. 😂😂😂😂
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    It's not going to happen, Sky have consistently been wrong on this stuff. The government has specifically said no more regional lockdowns or tiers becuase they don't work very well. They're just projecting their own alarmist stance on to the reporting of news, it's why they're wrong a lot.

    Edmunds is kite flying again!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    A really nice thing to say and it does seem the vaccine can have quite some side effects

    I know my wife and I were shattered the day after, and my daughter had to go to bed for 36 hours before recovering

    And well done you
    I felt rough the day after then the following day felt fine until I ran out of steam. Glad I don't get Covid, at least according to the trial I did.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    TOPPING said:

    £1,000 that I wasn't a full colonel.

    If I was I pay you £1,000; if I wasn't you pay me £1,000.
    Hang on, you already know the answer! That sounds like I very likely end up a grand in the hole.

    We can do something fairer and more interesting and for less money. A spread bet.

    FM
    Gen
    Lt Gen
    Maj Gen
    Brig
    Colonel
    Lt Col
    Maj
    Capt
    Lt
    2Lt
    OCdt

    I "buy" you at Colonel for £1 a rank.

    Profit or loss to site funds.

    Yes?
  • The SAGE guy quoted.

    Anyone suggesting that can go f**k themselves with a rusty implement as far as I'm concerned. We're done domestically - if you want to control the variant then control the border and if you can't be arsed to do that then no more complaints.
    Thanks Philip

    I know it was not me you were showing your frustrations at
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    No, was answering Max who was saying fearties wouldn't be bothered because they were vaccinated. There's still a non-trivial risk of illness, just a smaller one plus a negligible risk of death. How much that bothers you is individual.
    Is the risk of illness non-trivial though?

    The data (I posted above) suggests the contrary.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823


    Edmunds is kite flying again!
    More zero COVID foolishness. It's not going to happen. We're going to unlockdown on schedule and the vaccines will result in herd immunity by around mid May.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641


    Edmunds is kite flying again!
    No way back for local restrictions. They don't work.

    I'm sure the surge testing will secure satisfactory control. Latest figures suggest very few cases overall in these areas.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    The EMA is putting in some solid effort in working out what gives with the AZN vaccine. The idea that they have simply abandoned it is erroneous.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00940-0
    ...The EMA is also supporting studies by two academic consortia centred in the Netherlands, one led by Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam and the other by investigators at Utrecht University and the University Medical Center Utrecht.

    Their project list is ambitious. One of the consortia, co-chaired by virologist Eric C. M. van Gorp at Erasmus, consists of 22 hospitals that have been working together to study the effects of coronavirus on blood coagulation. The team will look for potential cases of HIT among people who developed blood clots following vaccination with the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine or other COVID-19 vaccines. It will also conduct lab studies to look for signs that the already-small risk could be cut further by reducing the amount of vaccine administered in each dose.

    The EMA expects to obtain some results from the projects within the next two months, said Peter Arlett, head of the agency’s Data Analytics and Methods task force. The team will also try to tease apart whether this problem is restricted to certain populations. “What we find in Western Europe will not automatically be true in South America or other populations,” says van Gorp. “This is a worldwide problem; everyone is concerned.”

    And, crucially, van Gorp and his colleagues will try to further evaluate whether the “probable” association between the vaccine and the syndrome is real...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited April 2021
    Nick

    According to the CDC the risk of hospitalisation for the twice-vaccinated is 396 in 66,000,000.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    Canadian MP mistakenly appears naked on Zoom call

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56760714
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    <
    The SAGE guy quoted.

    Anyone suggesting that can go f**k themselves with a rusty implement as far as I'm concerned. We're done domestically - if you want to control the variant then control the border and if you can't be arsed to do that then no more complaints.

    Indeed. I'm done with this. I'll follow the roadmap restrictions in accordance with the current timetable, as I've followed restrictions to date but I'm at the point where if we went back into lockdown or releases are delayed I would vote for Farage (a man that I despise on every level) if his was the only party opposing it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,844

    In other news, I have a brisket in the oven that I'm trying to slow cook for 8 hours. I'm hoping it's going to turn out amazing.

    I am sure it will - a slow cooker is an invaluable (and very small) investment if you're into that sort of thing. Especially one with a metal casserole dish insert (as opposed to ceramic) because then you can fry off the meat to seal it before leaving it to slow cook and forgetting about it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    MaxPB said:

    More zero COVID foolishness. It's not going to happen. We're going to unlockdown on schedule and the vaccines will result in herd immunity by around mid May.
    I just wish someone would put the likes of this fella back in his box.
    Sky have been one of the big villains of the last 12 months.
  • Cookie said:

    I just wish someone would put the likes of this fella back in his box.
    Sky have been one of the big villains of the last 12 months.
    And they were actually quoting Robert Peston !!!!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    I know it won't take long but its a shame we're so close to the threshold of 50% of the population being vaccinated, which would be a nice psychological landmark.

    At prior rates it would have taken less than a week to get there. Oh well, won't be long but it will be nice to do so.
    We've got an artificial asymptotic peak right now at about 50% due to need for 2nd doses.


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cookie said:

    I just wish someone would put the likes of this fella back in his box.
    Sky have been one of the big villains of the last 12 months.
    Wasn't as bad when they took Death Rigby etc off the air.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Cookie said:

    I just wish someone would put the likes of this fella back in his box.
    Sky have been one of the big villains of the last 12 months.
    Yup and the people who hang on every bit of negative news that Sky love to signal boost for ratings. The nation would be hugely improved if Ofcom made 24h news channels impossible to run.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,234
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    MaxPB said:

    Yup and the people who hang on every bit of negative news that Sky love to signal boost for ratings. The nation would be hugely improved if Ofcom made 24h news channels impossible to run.
    I've been saying that for years - 24h news means they need to create news to feed a vacuum..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,234
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited April 2021

    I am sure it will - a slow cooker is an invaluable (and very small) investment if you're into that sort of thing. Especially one with a metal casserole dish insert (as opposed to ceramic) because then you can fry off the meat to seal it before leaving it to slow cook and forgetting about it.
    Yummmm. To both.

    Though there is a lot to be said of the traditional Scottish dish of lamb shank simmered for hours in an [edit] deep pan such as a pressure cooker sans pressure, with fairly large chunks of swede (of course) and potato, and lots of grated carrot. Eat as soup as course 1, add meat and more soup and eat with bread for course 2.

    Brings back memories of my granny. Who also cooked boiled sheep's head (for the dog, actually, though that is also a traditional recipe for humans).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,816
    IanB2 said:

    With hindsight I was young and foolish; had some hard to find part failed on the continent, it would have been seriously inconvenient and seriously expensive. And I did worry about it; it always ran hot, and in the south of France during most of the day it was only safe to drive it downhill.

    It broke down lots of times, but always on the M1, normally near Luton. Being so old it was, I guess, set in its ways.
    Full of personality then, that old sunbeam of yours. A charismatic "borissy" sort of car.. No, totally agree, we can do without that. That is not my merc. It's very Sir Ed Davey.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited April 2021

    Nick

    According to the CDC the risk of hospitalisation for the twice-vaccinated is 396 in 66,000,000.

    He'll be worried about being ill but not needing hospitalisation. It's a wonder some folk ever get in a car or walk along a street .
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    edited April 2021
    IanB2 said:

    Like Johnson, Major was good at leaving the various factions thinking he sympathised with them, but whereas Johnson achieves this by telling everyone what they want to hear, Major did so by remaining cagey. Appearing to be the least pro-EU of the serious contenders cleverly got him the top job, but he went on to disappoint the sceptics, and his comments during and after the referendum suggest that he has been skilled at keeping his own views hidden when it suited.
    I think that's undoubtedly true. Major wasn't quite the ideology vacuum that say Johnson or Blair are. But he had a great poker face. And it's also certainly true that the Conservative Party was much more europhilic in 1990 than it was in 2016, let alone today.
This discussion has been closed.