politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point lead

Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

Ashcroft's polls more swingy than the Pirate Ship at Alton Towers.

GIN1138 said:

Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

I don't know about the sleazy blues, GIN, but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.

German industrial production fell by a whopping -1.8% in May (over April), well below the 0.0% expectations of economists.

Manufacturing figures were -1.6% and Construction -4.9%. There was also a downward revision to April's figures reducing 0.2% growth to -0.3%. On an annual basis both months came in at 1.3% growth.

The surprise figures have jolted the markets today with explanations ranging from nerves over the Ukraine crisis, a pan Eurozone slowing suggested by recent PMIs and the persisting strength of the Euro dampening exports.

Germany (like the Conservative led government) is strong enough to take a couple of reversals and bounce bank and the optimists point to rising confidence amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.

Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

Is George on holiday?

AveryLP said:

Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

Is George on holiday?

He's in India on a trade mission. Bombay market up 138 points.

Petitions Committee

Cecilia Wikstrom (ALDE) defeats EFDD nomineee 23 to 8

AveryLP said:

GIN1138 said:

Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

.....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......

A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)

Freggles said:

Great timing for Ilkley!

What the Ilkley pub needs is a fixed odds betting terminal hardwired to electoral calculus.

Not that most PBers would get anywhere near. Big_John_Owls would be on it all evening.

There's "something of the night" about these 1980s Tories - that's for sure...

I see that on the previous thread the claim was made by an eminent poster that '[t]here has been a reappraisal of some of Marx's work lately (especially after Piketty's book), by quite a few eminent economists.' This is folly in the extreme. Marx and Marxism have never recovered academically from Leszek Kolakowski's magnificent demolition job in Main Currents (London, 3 vols, 1978). It is a text that must be read before informed comment about Marxism can be made.

Or were they just a law unto themselves?

When Tebbit talks about preserving the system I guess he is referring to fear of the rival soviet system, still very much alive and kicking at the time

Life_ina_market_town said:

I see that on the previous thread the claim was made by an eminent poster that '[t]here has been a reappraisal of some of Marx's work lately (especially after Piketty's book), by quite a few eminent economists.' This is folly in the extreme. Marx and Marxism have never recovered academically from Leszek Kolakowski's magnificent demolition job in Main Currents (London, 3 vols, 1978). It is a text that must be read before informed comment about Marxism can be made.

You are forgetting the revisionist work of Louis Althusser, M'Lud.

Although the full impact of his reinvigoration of Marx's late works may have been lost in translation.

elephant_man said:

Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession - will be fun to watch Osborne try and wriggle out of that one!

I'm afraid a slim LAB maj is nailed on - sad as the idea of EdM being PM is!

Not even a remote possibility according to JackW

AveryLP said:

Freggles said:

Great timing for Ilkley!

What the Ilkley pub needs is a fixed odds betting terminal hardwired to electoral calculus.

Not that most PBers would get anywhere near. Big_John_Owls would be on it all evening.

Lol

I'm holding station until autumn.

If we're still seeing polls with Lab 7% ahead by November I may have to make an intervention.

#watchthisspace

EdM will be PM. It's all to do with the resurgence of geek chique.

CD13 said:

Just been watching the May statement and questions. A wide-ranging looksee with a date for reporting well beyond the next GE.

Perhaps I'm turning into Tapestry but what happened to those 114 files? From my experience, you don't "lose" files without a reason ( I worked in the civil service for a time, even though it was a scientific bit). They are passed on and a record kept, or destroyed with permission from someone appropriate and there is a record of that decision.

Unless the Home Office was burgled? Or were they just a law unto themselves?

Mr. 13, I did a spell with the Home Office in the early-mid nineties. What they were terribly good at was, amongst other things, record keeping. The fact that someone can say now from the index of files that there are 114 of them they can't find is testimony to the quality of the record keeping.

That they cannot actually lay hands on those files may actually not be down to any conspiracy or a rogue element, just the quality of the people at the bottom end responsible for actually doing the filing. We had a chap known to all as Roger the Dork who, because nobody in nearly forty years of his service (during which time he had risen from the rank of administrative assistant to the exalted post of administrative assistant) could think of anything he could do well, became the filing clerk in our personnel department. It wasn't a great success. Alphabetical order by surname was not a concept that dear Roger (bless him, because he had a heart of gold) could cope with.

The bottom end of the Home Office was littered with people like Roger, and the drunks and the column dodgers, and the clock-watchers who couldn't give a toss. So the fact that a few files (a 114 out of the hundreds of thousands that the Home Office Generate every year) cannot be found decades later should not be surprising. Incompetence not conspiracy I think is most likely.

To what sort of depths of unpopularity do we think Ed Hollande may sink by 2018?

The problem with geeks is they make terrible leaders and terrible decisions. It will make Callaghan look like stability. Other leaders will just look at the UK and laugh.

Re: FTSE100 at 7,000, I would be locking in profits and holding cash/defensive income names if I were you - winter's coming in the form of multiple compression

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/06/Abolishing-Tax-On-Death-To-Be-Key-UKIP-Election-Pledge

Off topic, but of interest.

AveryLP said:

GIN1138 said:

Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

I don't know about the sleazy blues, GIN, but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.

German industrial production fell by a whopping -1.8% in May (over April), well below the 0.0% expectations of economists.

Manufacturing figures were -1.6% and Construction -4.9%. There was also a downward revision to April's figures reducing 0.2% growth to -0.3%. On an annual basis both months came in at 1.3% growth.

The surprise figures have jolted the markets today with explanations ranging from nerves over the Ukraine crisis, a pan Eurozone slowing suggested by recent PMIs and the persisting strength of the Euro dampening exports.

Germany (like the Conservative led government) is strong enough to take a couple of reversals and bounce bank and the optimists point to rising confidence amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.

Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

Is George on holiday?

Oh let George stay or holiday or having a junket or whatever it is he's up to.

He does bugger all for the econmy when he's here so he might as well be kept out of harm's way.

JackW said:

Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds

Hoping your ARSE put's a smile on my face...

@elephant_man
Has Elliot waved at you yet?

The other constant of recent polls remains the solidarity of the Ukip vote.There is very little sign of the seepage predicted by many.It's going to take a lot more before Cameron persuades anyone he is a Eurosceptic.In trying to pretend this he's made himself look ridiculous,more and more One-Term Dave.

taffys said:

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/06/Abolishing-Tax-On-Death-To-Be-Key-UKIP-Election-Pledge

Off topic, but of interest.

"UKIP will also commit to scrapping … the Department for Energy and Climate Change."

I like that one! :-)

HurstLlama said:

@Elephnat_Man

"Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"

For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?

Avery might run out of yellow boxes.

Alanbrooke said:

HurstLlama said:

@Elephnat_Man

"Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"

For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?

Avery might run out of yellow boxes.

I'm sure Mark Carney will conjure up some more if necessary.

Let's remember folks that between September 2009 and February 2010, Cameron's personal lead over Brown halved - it all started with backtracking on Lisbon...

I like that one! :-)

Not much in there for the WWC, however.

Ouch.

Yes, ouch, not much more to say really apart from best wishes for all at Ilkley tonight.

I am getting seriously fed up of work getting in the way of fun and will try harder to make it in September.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AveryLP said:

GIN1138 said:

Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

.....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......

A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)

What will the driver of this Eurozone crisis be? what would any solution be? Interest rates are at rock bottom. They have been delivering QE.
The French deficit is getting bigger as I recall, certainly not improving particularly.
The UK is not in the Euro. Being in or out of the EU would not make any difference any knock on effect to our economy. We have no plans to be in the Euro and Cameron has stated his opposition to 'ever closer union'.

BobaFett said:

@Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).

Yep, Mr Consistent me!

To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)

I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.

My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.

Autumn will be important I think.

NickPalmer said:

The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

That UKIP number is surprising. Q5 has UKIP supporters as the most enthusiastic.

Hans Olaf Henkel of AfD was approved by the Industry, Research and Energy committe as one of their vice-chairs. 2 AfD rejected in other committees.

If Europe 's economy disappears down the toilet, that could actually work in Dave's favour.

Germany will desperately need Britain to push for reforms.

elephant_man said:

NickPalmer said:

The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

Nick - Broxtow is 2/7 for Labour with PaddyPower - can I assume you will be hosting a PB post-election party?

Can't speak for you, but I assume nothing! Sticking to my "reasonably hopeful" line. But if I win, would be nice to do something like that. In the meantime, have fun all in Ilkley!

Mr Llama,

After due consideration, I'm tempted to agree. Cock-up usually wins over conspiracy, but it's much less interesting.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Hans Olaf Henkel of AfD was approved by the Industry, Research and Energy committe as one of their vice-chairs. 2 AfD rejected in other committees.

Andrea

What does a Vice Chair involve?

Are the additional benefits similar to those enjoyed by Cabinet Ministers under Margaret Thatcher?

Fenster said:

A 7pt lead should keep Ed Miliband's army happy.

I'm actually really looking forward to a full GE campaign headed up by Miliband.

I bet the Tories are shitting themselves.

I wanted to give Ed Miliband a chance, given that he seems a pleasant enough chap and all that, but I think he's rubbish. And I'm not a particularly dyed-in-the-wool party type; for instance I thought Blair impregnable, even as someone opposed to him.

I think he will be a serious, serious drag on Labour during a GE. Labour will need to win in spite of him, not because of him. I think Ed Balls (bananas though it seems) will have a better chance of cutting through vis a vis the economy during - what will be - the most minute-by-minute covered GE campaign ever. Miliband will be portrayed as the weak, flaky Union-puppet. It's gonna be rough for him.

On the whole I think the Tories will narrowly scrape most seats. But nowhere near a majority.

I think there is a kind of arrogance in the belief that a Cameron/ Miliband match-up will automatically go the way of Cameron. He's not a great communicator, but he certainly has some important leadership qualities (among which I think is his ability to keep disparate parts of the party together and united). The tories may find that continuing to underestimate him will cost them dear. I already perceive a strain of bewilderment: economy growing, facing Miliband - and yet, we're still behind in the polls ...

This is only noise. Voting intentions just do not fluctuate that much within a single week. In any case, the only pollster who counts is ICM.

Tapestry said:

Britain's child-stealing paedophile government shocks the world

You what? You should stop watching the repeats of 'Chitty Chitty Bang Bang'

@bigjohnowls
They are stuck in a traffic jam at Deep Depression, not far from the crossover.

Ben Rhydding - sounds more welsh than Yorkshire. But looking out the train window (And TdF) truly can say Yorkshire has great countryside

Former finance minister Ashraf Ghani leads preliminary results for final round of Afghan presidential electionhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28199066

On topic, UKIP remains the key. Add half the UKIP score to the Tories and they take the lead against Labour without a single Labour voter switching sides

HYUFD said:

George Clooney wants to be president
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2682737/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Now-George-Clooney-wants-Mr-President.html

Oh good grief

ToryJim Well one Hollywood actor managed it so you cannot completely dismiss it, but he would need to become a Senator or governor first