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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads from both Populus and Lord Ashcroft
Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind.
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(An outlier).
Ouch. That's gotta hurt!
Heh.
German industrial production fell by a whopping -1.8% in May (over April), well below the 0.0% expectations of economists.
Manufacturing figures were -1.6% and Construction -4.9%. There was also a downward revision to April's figures reducing 0.2% growth to -0.3%. On an annual basis both months came in at 1.3% growth.
The surprise figures have jolted the markets today with explanations ranging from nerves over the Ukraine crisis, a pan Eurozone slowing suggested by recent PMIs and the persisting strength of the Euro dampening exports.
Germany (like the Conservative led government) is strong enough to take a couple of reversals and bounce bank and the optimists point to rising confidence amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.
Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.
Is George on holiday?
Lab: +38% / -34% (Mean: -4.5)
Con: +34% / -38% (Mean: -11.7)
UKIP: +28% / -42% (Mean: -19.6)
LD: +22% / -42% (Mean: -23.04)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ANP-140707-Full-data-tables.pdf
Cecilia Wikstrom (ALDE) defeats EFDD nomineee 23 to 8
Would cheer Sunil up.
Perhaps I'm turning into Tapestry but what happened to those 114 files? From my experience, you don't "lose" files without a reason ( I worked in the civil service for a time, even though it was a scientific bit). They are passed on and a record kept, or destroyed with permission from someone appropriate and there is a record of that decision.
Unless the Home Office was burgled? Or were they just a law unto themselves?
Not that most PBers would get anywhere near. Big_John_Owls would be on it all evening.
I'm afraid a slim LAB maj is nailed on - sad as the idea of EdM being PM is!
Labour are liked by: Con 22%, Lab 84%, LD 33%, UKIP 19%
LD are liked by: Con 24%, Lab 20%, LD 79%, UKIP 9%
UKIP are liked by: Con 31%, Lab 17%, LD 10%, UKIP 93%
Con 2nd preference is UKIP
Lab 2nd preference is LD
LD 2nd preference is Con
UKIP 2nd preference is Con
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20140707IPR51705/html/Members-elect-chairs-and-vice-chairs-of-parliamentary-committees
When Tebbit talks about preserving the system I guess he is referring to fear of the rival soviet system, still very much alive and kicking at the time
Although the full impact of his reinvigoration of Marx's late works may have been lost in translation.
If we're still seeing polls with Lab 7% ahead by November I may have to make an intervention.
#watchthisspace
That they cannot actually lay hands on those files may actually not be down to any conspiracy or a rogue element, just the quality of the people at the bottom end responsible for actually doing the filing. We had a chap known to all as Roger the Dork who, because nobody in nearly forty years of his service (during which time he had risen from the rank of administrative assistant to the exalted post of administrative assistant) could think of anything he could do well, became the filing clerk in our personnel department. It wasn't a great success. Alphabetical order by surname was not a concept that dear Roger (bless him, because he had a heart of gold) could cope with.
The bottom end of the Home Office was littered with people like Roger, and the drunks and the column dodgers, and the clock-watchers who couldn't give a toss. So the fact that a few files (a 114 out of the hundreds of thousands that the Home Office Generate every year) cannot be found decades later should not be surprising. Incompetence not conspiracy I think is most likely.
Hoxhaists would certainly claim Althusser was "revisionist". To everyone else, however, he represented the call for a return to Stalinism after the humanist excesses of the New Left in the 1960s, in particular with his endless bilge that "Marxist science" was tautological, that Marxism could not be falsified history, etc....
Re: FTSE100 at 7,000, I would be locking in profits and holding cash/defensive income names if I were you - winter's coming in the form of multiple compression
Off topic, but of interest.
15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
He does bugger all for the econmy when he's here so he might as well be kept out of harm's way.
Has Elliot waved at you yet?
"Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"
For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?
I like that one! :-)
I couldn't possibly .....
Avery will be nowhere to be seen more like
Not much in there for the WWC, however.
Yes, ouch, not much more to say really apart from best wishes for all at Ilkley tonight.
I am getting seriously fed up of work getting in the way of fun and will try harder to make it in September.
The French deficit is getting bigger as I recall, certainly not improving particularly.
The UK is not in the Euro. Being in or out of the EU would not make any difference any knock on effect to our economy. We have no plans to be in the Euro and Cameron has stated his opposition to 'ever closer union'.
To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)
I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.
My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.
Autumn will be important I think.
A: A recession in many of the Eurozone countries, piling on more Government debt.
I'm actually really looking forward to a full GE campaign headed up by Miliband.
I bet the Tories are shitting themselves.
I wanted to give Ed Miliband a chance, given that he seems a pleasant enough chap and all that, but I think he's rubbish. And I'm not a particularly dyed-in-the-wool party type; for instance I thought Blair impregnable, even as someone opposed to him.
I think he will be a serious, serious drag on Labour during a GE. Labour will need to win in spite of him, not because of him. I think Ed Balls (bananas though it seems) will have a better chance of cutting through vis a vis the economy during - what will be - the most minute-by-minute covered GE campaign ever. Miliband will be portrayed as the weak, flaky Union-puppet. It's gonna be rough for him.
On the whole I think the Tories will narrowly scrape most seats. But nowhere near a majority.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2682654/Brittan-raped-claims-woman-Tory-grandee-denies-assault-blind-date-1967.html
Read carefully both pieces and there are a lot questions e.g. who leaked the fact Britton had been interviewed to the press? and a lot of things not being mentioned by the wider reporting of this case.
I feel very very uncomfortable about all of this, not least by the fact "campaigning" (as the Daily Mail puts it) Tom Watson is involved.
Germany will desperately need Britain to push for reforms.
If EdM gets the keys to No 10, Avery will be holed up in his motor yacht Anastasia, newly purchased from the former Prime Minister of Russia.
I will send a tender to port for any PBers wishing to share in the shelter.
http://www.thedrum.com/news/2014/07/07/scottish-crown-office-confirms-andy-coulson-indicted-perjury
After due consideration, I'm tempted to agree. Cock-up usually wins over conspiracy, but it's much less interesting.
Funnier than Alan Partridge is the hypocrisy of some celebs. I mean this is the man who used to phone up "his man" at the NOTW to ask them to spike all the bad stories about him and got the hump when he was told they weren't going to play ball anymore.
What does a Vice Chair involve?
Are the additional benefits similar to those enjoyed by Cabinet Ministers under Margaret Thatcher?
http://youtu.be/NkudWCm_rGU
They are stuck in a traffic jam at Deep Depression, not far from the crossover.
I thought we were supposed to have had "crossover" by now, PB Tories said so?
Shouldn't the Tories be on a glidepath to victory by now, PBTories said so?
I thought voters were supposed to have recoiled from "crap" Ed by now, PBTories said so?
And the PBTories are never wrong are they?
It never rains!!!
Your heart is not the one broken, Thomas.
Mr Smithson
Are you going to bar Tap in Ilkley?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2682737/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Now-George-Clooney-wants-Mr-President.html
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4140426.ece
It's all in the timing...