politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point lead

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited July 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly 10 months till GE2015 and LAB moves to 7 point leads from both Populus and Lord Ashcroft

Just a week ago the Ashcroft phone poll recorded a CON lead of 2%. Last Friday Populus had the Tories just 1% behind.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    Last.

    (An outlier).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    7pt lead?

    Ouch. That's gotta hurt!

    Heh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Ashcroft's polls more swingy than the Pirate Ship at Alton Towers.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Great timing for Ilkley!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    I don't know about the sleazy blues, GIN, but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.

    German industrial production fell by a whopping -1.8% in May (over April), well below the 0.0% expectations of economists.

    Manufacturing figures were -1.6% and Construction -4.9%. There was also a downward revision to April's figures reducing 0.2% growth to -0.3%. On an annual basis both months came in at 1.3% growth.

    The surprise figures have jolted the markets today with explanations ranging from nerves over the Ukraine crisis, a pan Eurozone slowing suggested by recent PMIs and the persisting strength of the Euro dampening exports.

    Germany (like the Conservative led government) is strong enough to take a couple of reversals and bounce bank and the optimists point to rising confidence amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.

    Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

    Is George on holiday?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited July 2014
    Q5. "How positive or negative you feel about each of the following, using a scale from -100 (very negative) to +100 (very positive)"

    Lab: +38% / -34% (Mean: -4.5)
    Con: +34% / -38% (Mean: -11.7)
    UKIP: +28% / -42% (Mean: -19.6)
    LD: +22% / -42% (Mean: -23.04)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ANP-140707-Full-data-tables.pdf
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

    Is George on holiday?

    He's in India on a trade mission. Bombay market up 138 points.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    EFDD nominees are getting outvoted also for vice-chairmanships in EU Parliament select committees. Petitions committee is meeting right now but given what is happening in other committees, EPP & S&D will reject the EFDD nominee
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Petitions Committee

    Cecilia Wikstrom (ALDE) defeats EFDD nomineee 23 to 8

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AveryLP said:

    Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

    Is George on holiday?

    He's in India on a trade mission. Bombay market up 138 points.
    Perhaps he can take a detour to Kerala.

    Would cheer Sunil up.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    AveryLP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    .....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
    ...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......
    A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Just been watching the May statement and questions. A wide-ranging looksee with a date for reporting well beyond the next GE.

    Perhaps I'm turning into Tapestry but what happened to those 114 files? From my experience, you don't "lose" files without a reason ( I worked in the civil service for a time, even though it was a scientific bit). They are passed on and a record kept, or destroyed with permission from someone appropriate and there is a record of that decision.

    Unless the Home Office was burgled? Or were they just a law unto themselves?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Freggles said:

    Great timing for Ilkley!

    What the Ilkley pub needs is a fixed odds betting terminal hardwired to electoral calculus.

    Not that most PBers would get anywhere near. Big_John_Owls would be on it all evening.

  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession - will be fun to watch Osborne try and wriggle out of that one!

    I'm afraid a slim LAB maj is nailed on - sad as the idea of EdM being PM is!
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    There's "something of the night" about these 1980s Tories - that's for sure...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    anotherDave said:

    Q5. "How positive or negative you feel about each of the following, using a scale from -100 (very negative) to +100 (very positive)"

    Lab: +38% / -34% (Mean: -4.5)
    Con: +34% / -38% (Mean: -11.7)
    UKIP: +28% / -42% (Mean: -19.6)
    LD: +22% / -42% (Mean: -23.04)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ANP-140707-Full-data-tables.pdf

    The Conservatives are liked by: Con 89%, Lab 18%, LD 39%, UKIP 30%
    Labour are liked by: Con 22%, Lab 84%, LD 33%, UKIP 19%
    LD are liked by: Con 24%, Lab 20%, LD 79%, UKIP 9%
    UKIP are liked by: Con 31%, Lab 17%, LD 10%, UKIP 93%

    Con 2nd preference is UKIP
    Lab 2nd preference is LD
    LD 2nd preference is Con
    UKIP 2nd preference is Con

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    I see that on the previous thread the claim was made by an eminent poster that '[t]here has been a reappraisal of some of Marx's work lately (especially after Piketty's book), by quite a few eminent economists.' This is folly in the extreme. Marx and Marxism have never recovered academically from Leszek Kolakowski's magnificent demolition job in Main Currents (London, 3 vols, 1978). It is a text that must be read before informed comment about Marxism can be made.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    EU Parliament committees chairs and vice-chairs elected so far...page is updated when committees finish their sitting

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/content/20140707IPR51705/html/Members-elect-chairs-and-vice-chairs-of-parliamentary-committees
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Or were they just a law unto themselves?

    When Tebbit talks about preserving the system I guess he is referring to fear of the rival soviet system, still very much alive and kicking at the time
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Freggles said:

    Great timing for Ilkley!

    Is the PB gathering tonight? If so I hope it's a fun one!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    I see that on the previous thread the claim was made by an eminent poster that '[t]here has been a reappraisal of some of Marx's work lately (especially after Piketty's book), by quite a few eminent economists.' This is folly in the extreme. Marx and Marxism have never recovered academically from Leszek Kolakowski's magnificent demolition job in Main Currents (London, 3 vols, 1978). It is a text that must be read before informed comment about Marxism can be made.

    You are forgetting the revisionist work of Louis Althusser, M'Lud.

    Although the full impact of his reinvigoration of Marx's late works may have been lost in translation.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Just arrived in ilkley lordylordy poll Lab 362 con 220 ld 39 [ukpr]. Ed is crap is landslide PM in 3rd outlier poll in 2 days. 10 months to go
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    elephant_man said:

    Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession - will be fun to watch Osborne try and wriggle out of that one!

    I'm afraid a slim LAB maj is nailed on - sad as the idea of EdM being PM is!

    Not even a remote possibility according to JackW
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I've always thought Labour would win, but at least that it might be close. Seems ridiculous now. Ed M might be surprised to have a workable majority.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    AveryLP said:

    Freggles said:

    Great timing for Ilkley!

    What the Ilkley pub needs is a fixed odds betting terminal hardwired to electoral calculus.

    Not that most PBers would get anywhere near. Big_John_Owls would be on it all evening.

    Lol
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,698
    Hope it goes well tonight at Ilkey.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    I'm holding station until autumn.

    If we're still seeing polls with Lab 7% ahead by November I may have to make an intervention.

    #watchthisspace
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    AfD woman rejected as 4th Vice-Chair of Equalities committee. As for ECR, they seem to reject only AfD candidates.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    EdM will be PM. It's all to do with the resurgence of geek chique.
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    Today's economic figures from Germany are quite the turn for the worse - it all feels very 2007 right now - will economists every learn? Fiddling while Rome burns...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    CD13 said:

    Just been watching the May statement and questions. A wide-ranging looksee with a date for reporting well beyond the next GE.

    Perhaps I'm turning into Tapestry but what happened to those 114 files? From my experience, you don't "lose" files without a reason ( I worked in the civil service for a time, even though it was a scientific bit). They are passed on and a record kept, or destroyed with permission from someone appropriate and there is a record of that decision.

    Unless the Home Office was burgled? Or were they just a law unto themselves?

    Mr. 13, I did a spell with the Home Office in the early-mid nineties. What they were terribly good at was, amongst other things, record keeping. The fact that someone can say now from the index of files that there are 114 of them they can't find is testimony to the quality of the record keeping.

    That they cannot actually lay hands on those files may actually not be down to any conspiracy or a rogue element, just the quality of the people at the bottom end responsible for actually doing the filing. We had a chap known to all as Roger the Dork who, because nobody in nearly forty years of his service (during which time he had risen from the rank of administrative assistant to the exalted post of administrative assistant) could think of anything he could do well, became the filing clerk in our personnel department. It wasn't a great success. Alphabetical order by surname was not a concept that dear Roger (bless him, because he had a heart of gold) could cope with.

    The bottom end of the Home Office was littered with people like Roger, and the drunks and the column dodgers, and the clock-watchers who couldn't give a toss. So the fact that a few files (a 114 out of the hundreds of thousands that the Home Office Generate every year) cannot be found decades later should not be surprising. Incompetence not conspiracy I think is most likely.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited July 2014
    AveryLP said:

    You are forgetting the revisionist work of Louis Althusser, M'Lud.

    Although the full impact of his reinvigoration of Marx's late works may have been lost in translation.

    As Kolakowski argued in Main Currents (and Althusser eventually accepted after he killed his wife), his theory of an "epistemological break" outlined in Pour Marx and Lire le Capital in 1844 depended on not having read much of Marx's post-1844 work. In the end, only the so-called Critique of the Gotha Programme came to be seen as free of the taints of the "early Marx", whether they be Hegelian, humanist or teleological. One was left wondering whether the "mature Marx" Althusser described ever existed in Marx's day, or whether it was left for Louis to invent him.

    Hoxhaists would certainly claim Althusser was "revisionist". To everyone else, however, he represented the call for a return to Stalinism after the humanist excesses of the New Left in the 1960s, in particular with his endless bilge that "Marxist science" was tautological, that Marxism could not be falsified history, etc....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    To what sort of depths of unpopularity do we think Ed Hollande may sink by 2018?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    How many of the "nailed" on fraternity, of either side, will still be here at the end of May? There's going to be some serious Umble pie eating going on for a few of the more enthusiastic posters.
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    The problem with geeks is they make terrible leaders and terrible decisions. It will make Callaghan look like stability. Other leaders will just look at the UK and laugh.

    Re: FTSE100 at 7,000, I would be locking in profits and holding cash/defensive income names if I were you - winter's coming in the form of multiple compression
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour is 4% ahead. The Junker bounce was the 3% who change their mind anytime another party is on the TV last week they said Camp this week Labour. You see them about at party conference season too, switching their vote to whoever is on the box. The reality is this lot won't vote.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/06/Abolishing-Tax-On-Death-To-Be-Key-UKIP-Election-Pledge

    Off topic, but of interest.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AveryLP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    I don't know about the sleazy blues, GIN, but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.

    German industrial production fell by a whopping -1.8% in May (over April), well below the 0.0% expectations of economists.

    Manufacturing figures were -1.6% and Construction -4.9%. There was also a downward revision to April's figures reducing 0.2% growth to -0.3%. On an annual basis both months came in at 1.3% growth.

    The surprise figures have jolted the markets today with explanations ranging from nerves over the Ukraine crisis, a pan Eurozone slowing suggested by recent PMIs and the persisting strength of the Euro dampening exports.

    Germany (like the Conservative led government) is strong enough to take a couple of reversals and bounce bank and the optimists point to rising confidence amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.

    Not good news at all for the Germans, for the EU or for the UK.

    Is George on holiday?
    Oh let George stay or holiday or having a junket or whatever it is he's up to.

    He does bugger all for the econmy when he's here so he might as well be kept out of harm's way.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    saddened said:

    How many of the "nailed" on fraternity, of either side, will still be here at the end of May? There's going to be some serious Umble pie eating going on for a few of the more enthusiastic posters.

    I'll be here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds

    Hoping your ARSE put's a smile on my face...

  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    GIN1138 said:

    saddened said:

    How many of the "nailed" on fraternity, of either side, will still be here at the end of May? There's going to be some serious Umble pie eating going on for a few of the more enthusiastic posters.

    I'll be here.
    I'll be rubbing it in Tories' faces just like always - ah, what a sweet reverie of 2010, he couldn't even beat Brown!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @elephant_man
    Has Elliot waved at you yet?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    elephant_man said:

    Re: FTSE100 at 7,000, I would be locking in profits and holding cash/defensive income names if I were you - winter's coming in the form of multiple compression

    But don't get too exposed to UK-focused companies in sectors at risk of being Milibanded - utilities, supermarkets, banks, outsourcers, housebuilders.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The other constant of recent polls remains the solidarity of the Ukip vote.There is very little sign of the seepage predicted by many.It's going to take a lot more before Cameron persuades anyone he is a Eurosceptic.In trying to pretend this he's made himself look ridiculous,more and more One-Term Dave.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Elephnat_Man

    "Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"

    For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/06/Abolishing-Tax-On-Death-To-Be-Key-UKIP-Election-Pledge

    Off topic, but of interest.

    "UKIP will also commit to scrapping … the Department for Energy and Climate Change."

    I like that one! :-)
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    Smarmeron said:

    @elephant_man
    Has Elliot waved at you yet?

    I'm more of a Kondratiev man myself
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    HurstLlama said:

    @Elephnat_Man

    "Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"

    For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?

    Avery might run out of yellow boxes.
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    elephant_man said:

    Re: FTSE100 at 7,000, I would be locking in profits and holding cash/defensive income names if I were you - winter's coming in the form of multiple compression

    But don't get too exposed to UK-focused companies in sectors at risk of being Milibanded - utilities, supermarkets, banks, outsourcers, housebuilders.
    Rent and utilities would be the slippy ones - Miliband will orchestrate a downturn in the housing market no matter what
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Alanbrooke said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Elephnat_Man

    "Decent chance that in 10 months time, the UK will be in recession"

    For that to be true the UK economy would need to start shrinking in the fourth quarter of this year. Given its current rate of growth and PMIs, what do you thin would cause such a rapid turn around this autumn?

    Avery might run out of yellow boxes.
    I'm sure Mark Carney will conjure up some more if necessary.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :

    15 hours 30 minutes 45 seconds

    Hoping your ARSE put's a smile on my face...

    Some might consider you a wee bit anal retentive for so regularly burying your smiling face in my ARSE.

    I couldn't possibly .....

  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    Let's remember folks that between September 2009 and February 2010, Cameron's personal lead over Brown halved - it all started with backtracking on Lisbon...
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Alan

    Avery will be nowhere to be seen more like
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    I am in Ilkley - looking forward to a pint of Wharfedale ale.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I like that one! :-)

    Not much in there for the WWC, however.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Ouch.

    Yes, ouch, not much more to say really apart from best wishes for all at Ilkley tonight.

    I am getting seriously fed up of work getting in the way of fun and will try harder to make it in September.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    BobaFett said:

    @Alan

    Avery will be nowhere to be seen more like

    Mr BaF Avery will return with chutzpah and expalin why the recession is good for us.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    AveryLP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    .....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
    ...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......
    A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)
    What will the driver of this Eurozone crisis be? what would any solution be? Interest rates are at rock bottom. They have been delivering QE.
    The French deficit is getting bigger as I recall, certainly not improving particularly.
    The UK is not in the Euro. Being in or out of the EU would not make any difference any knock on effect to our economy. We have no plans to be in the Euro and Cameron has stated his opposition to 'ever closer union'.

  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    NickPalmer said:

    The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

    Nick - Broxtow is 2/7 for Labour with PaddyPower - can I assume you will be hosting a PB post-election party?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    BobaFett said:

    @Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).

    Yep, Mr Consistent me! :D

    To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)

    I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.

    My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.

    Autumn will be important I think.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Flightpath said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    AveryLP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    .....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
    ...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......
    A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)
    What will the driver of this Eurozone crisis be? what would any solution be? Interest rates are at rock bottom. They have been delivering QE.
    The French deficit is getting bigger as I recall, certainly not improving particularly.
    The UK is not in the Euro. Being in or out of the EU would not make any difference any knock on effect to our economy. We have no plans to be in the Euro and Cameron has stated his opposition to 'ever closer union'.

    Flightpath said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    AveryLP said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Broken, sleazy blue's going down the Tubes...

    .....but the Eurozone certainly looks in trouble.
    ...... amongst German consumers, but with France falling back and Italy still in the doldrums, persistent contraction in Germany could well trigger a second Eurozone crisis.......
    A second Eurozone crisis does look a possibility in 2015. Europhile parties may take a hit at that time. (trying to see a silver lining)
    What will the driver of this Eurozone crisis be? what would any solution be? Interest rates are at rock bottom. They have been delivering QE.
    The French deficit is getting bigger as I recall, certainly not improving particularly.
    The UK is not in the Euro. Being in or out of the EU would not make any difference any knock on effect to our economy. We have no plans to be in the Euro and Cameron has stated his opposition to 'ever closer union'.
    Q: What will the driver of this Eurozone crisis be?
    A: A recession in many of the Eurozone countries, piling on more Government debt.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    NickPalmer said:

    The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

    That UKIP number is surprising. Q5 has UKIP supporters as the most enthusiastic.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited July 2014
    A 7pt lead should keep Ed Miliband's army happy.

    I'm actually really looking forward to a full GE campaign headed up by Miliband.

    I bet the Tories are shitting themselves.

    I wanted to give Ed Miliband a chance, given that he seems a pleasant enough chap and all that, but I think he's rubbish. And I'm not a particularly dyed-in-the-wool party type; for instance I thought Blair impregnable, even as someone opposed to him.

    I think he will be a serious, serious drag on Labour during a GE. Labour will need to win in spite of him, not because of him. I think Ed Balls (bananas though it seems) will have a better chance of cutting through vis a vis the economy during - what will be - the most minute-by-minute covered GE campaign ever. Miliband will be portrayed as the weak, flaky Union-puppet. It's gonna be rough for him.

    On the whole I think the Tories will narrowly scrape most seats. But nowhere near a majority.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Hans Olaf Henkel of AfD was approved by the Industry, Research and Energy committe as one of their vice-chairs. 2 AfD rejected in other committees.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014
    http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5315/dpp-forced-scotland-yard-to-quiz-leon-brittan-over-rape-claim

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2682654/Brittan-raped-claims-woman-Tory-grandee-denies-assault-blind-date-1967.html

    Read carefully both pieces and there are a lot questions e.g. who leaked the fact Britton had been interviewed to the press? and a lot of things not being mentioned by the wider reporting of this case.

    I feel very very uncomfortable about all of this, not least by the fact "campaigning" (as the Daily Mail puts it) Tom Watson is involved.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If Europe 's economy disappears down the toilet, that could actually work in Dave's favour.

    Germany will desperately need Britain to push for reforms.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Alanbrooke said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Alan

    Avery will be nowhere to be seen more like

    Mr BaF Avery will return with chutzpah and expalin why the recession is good for us.
    Not true, Mr. Brooke.

    If EdM gets the keys to No 10, Avery will be holed up in his motor yacht Anastasia, newly purchased from the former Prime Minister of Russia.

    I will send a tender to port for any PBers wishing to share in the shelter.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    elephant_man said:

    NickPalmer said:

    The "might you vote differently?" question in Ashcroft is always interesting whatever our reservations about the overall figure (which BTW show Lab 9 points ahead, adjusted down to 7 for DK adjustment). Lab and Con both 59-41 certain, UKIP 54-46, LD 38-62 - so although it's a slightly better poll for the LDs, it's still very fragile.

    Nick - Broxtow is 2/7 for Labour with PaddyPower - can I assume you will be hosting a PB post-election party?
    Can't speak for you, but I assume nothing! Sticking to my "reasonably hopeful" line. But if I win, would be nice to do something like that. In the meantime, have fun all in Ilkley!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    The Scottish Crown office confirmed this afternoon that an indictment was served today on jailed former News of the World editor Andy Coulson.

    http://www.thedrum.com/news/2014/07/07/scottish-crown-office-confirms-andy-coulson-indicted-perjury
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Llama,

    After due consideration, I'm tempted to agree. Cock-up usually wins over conspiracy, but it's much less interesting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited July 2014
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/culturehousedaily/2014/07/aha-steve-coogan-sticks-it-to-rupert-murdoch/

    Funnier than Alan Partridge is the hypocrisy of some celebs. I mean this is the man who used to phone up "his man" at the NOTW to ask them to spike all the bad stories about him and got the hump when he was told they weren't going to play ball anymore.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Hans Olaf Henkel of AfD was approved by the Industry, Research and Energy committe as one of their vice-chairs. 2 AfD rejected in other committees.

    Andrea

    What does a Vice Chair involve?

    Are the additional benefits similar to those enjoyed by Cabinet Ministers under Margaret Thatcher?
  • elephant_manelephant_man Posts: 29
    AveryLP said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Hans Olaf Henkel of AfD was approved by the Industry, Research and Energy committe as one of their vice-chairs. 2 AfD rejected in other committees.

    Andrea

    What does a Vice Chair involve?

    Are the additional benefits similar to those enjoyed by Cabinet Ministers under Margaret Thatcher?
    Are you referring to smacking or fiddling while Rome burns?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Fenster said:

    A 7pt lead should keep Ed Miliband's army happy.

    I'm actually really looking forward to a full GE campaign headed up by Miliband.

    I bet the Tories are shitting themselves.

    I wanted to give Ed Miliband a chance, given that he seems a pleasant enough chap and all that, but I think he's rubbish. And I'm not a particularly dyed-in-the-wool party type; for instance I thought Blair impregnable, even as someone opposed to him.

    I think he will be a serious, serious drag on Labour during a GE. Labour will need to win in spite of him, not because of him. I think Ed Balls (bananas though it seems) will have a better chance of cutting through vis a vis the economy during - what will be - the most minute-by-minute covered GE campaign ever. Miliband will be portrayed as the weak, flaky Union-puppet. It's gonna be rough for him.

    On the whole I think the Tories will narrowly scrape most seats. But nowhere near a majority.

    I think there is a kind of arrogance in the belief that a Cameron/ Miliband match-up will automatically go the way of Cameron. He's not a great communicator, but he certainly has some important leadership qualities (among which I think is his ability to keep disparate parts of the party together and united). The tories may find that continuing to underestimate him will cost them dear. I already perceive a strain of bewilderment: economy growing, facing Miliband - and yet, we're still behind in the polls ...
  • TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    Britain's child-stealing paedophile government shocks the world
    http://youtu.be/NkudWCm_rGU
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 48
    This is only noise. Voting intentions just do not fluctuate that much within a single week. In any case, the only pollster who counts is ICM.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).

    Yep, Mr Consistent me! :D

    To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)

    I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.

    My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.

    Autumn will be important I think.

    Ha! Fair enough. I wouldn't know about your track record, being a relatively recent addition to the site ;-)
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited July 2014
    Tapestry said:

    Britain's child-stealing paedophile government shocks the world

    You what? You should stop watching the repeats of 'Chitty Chitty Bang Bang'

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Where is everyone this Wharfedale Black is good
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @bigjohnowls
    They are stuck in a traffic jam at Deep Depression, not far from the crossover.
  • MikePMikeP Posts: 47
    Lol.

    I thought we were supposed to have had "crossover" by now, PB Tories said so?

    Shouldn't the Tories be on a glidepath to victory by now, PBTories said so?

    I thought voters were supposed to have recoiled from "crap" Ed by now, PBTories said so?

    And the PBTories are never wrong are they?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ben Rhydding - sounds more welsh than Yorkshire. But looking out the train window (And TdF) truly can say Yorkshire has great countryside
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    BobaFett said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).

    Yep, Mr Consistent me! :D

    To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)

    I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.

    My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.

    Autumn will be important I think.

    Ha! Fair enough. I wouldn't know about your track record, being a relatively recent addition to the site ;-)
    Be a good scout and let us know how long you've been posting.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    ThomasNashe said:

    Fenster said:

    A 7pt lead should keep Ed Miliband's army happy.

    I'm actually really looking forward to a full GE campaign headed up by Miliband.

    I bet the Tories are shitting themselves.

    I wanted to give Ed Miliband a chance, given that he seems a pleasant enough chap and all that, but I think he's rubbish. And I'm not a particularly dyed-in-the-wool party type; for instance I thought Blair impregnable, even as someone opposed to him.

    I think he will be a serious, serious drag on Labour during a GE. Labour will need to win in spite of him, not because of him. I think Ed Balls (bananas though it seems) will have a better chance of cutting through vis a vis the economy during - what will be - the most minute-by-minute covered GE campaign ever. Miliband will be portrayed as the weak, flaky Union-puppet. It's gonna be rough for him.

    On the whole I think the Tories will narrowly scrape most seats. But nowhere near a majority.

    I think there is a kind of arrogance in the belief that a Cameron/ Miliband match-up will automatically go the way of Cameron. He's not a great communicator, but he certainly has some important leadership qualities (among which I think is his ability to keep disparate parts of the party together and united). The tories may find that continuing to underestimate him will cost them dear. I already perceive a strain of bewilderment: economy growing, facing Miliband - and yet, we're still behind in the polls ...
    Within the Ashcroft poll, there is a question about how people feel about each party. Labour well, well ahead on that metric, for what it's worth, which may be nothing.
  • enfantenfant Posts: 34
    Andy Coulson will face a perjury charge on August 6th in Glasgow.
    It never rains!!!
  • TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    ThomasNashe said:

    Tapestry said:

    Britain's child-stealing paedophile government shocks the world

    You what? You should stop watching the repeats of 'Chitty Chitty Bang Bang'

    Your heart is not the one broken, Thomas.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2014
    @Tapestry

    Your heart is not the one broken, Thomas.

    Mr Smithson

    Are you going to bar Tap in Ilkley?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Former finance minister Ashraf Ghani leads preliminary results for final round of Afghan presidential electionhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28199066
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    George Clooney wants to be president
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2682737/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Now-George-Clooney-wants-Mr-President.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    On topic, UKIP remains the key. Add half the UKIP score to the Tories and they take the lead against Labour without a single Labour voter switching sides
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    The Greens turn into the UKIP of the left
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4140426.ece
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    HYUFD said:

    George Clooney wants to be president
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2682737/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Now-George-Clooney-wants-Mr-President.html

    Oh good grief
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    BobaFett said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Gin - you have gone from assuring us that Ed has had it (Thu) to querying his likely satisfaction ratings after he has been in post for three years (Mon).

    Yep, Mr Consistent me! :D

    To be fair, Thursday's post was just really to try and wind up lefties. A lot of what I post is tongue in cheek, whch I thought everyone knew by now (think I've been here since 2007 - Blimey!)

    I genuinely have no idea what's going to happen.

    My instinct is still Con most votes and most seats in a HP, but the polls are still looking good for Lab for now.

    Autumn will be important I think.

    Ha! Fair enough. I wouldn't know about your track record, being a relatively recent addition to the site ;-)
    I actually thought you was Bobajob?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    ToryJim Well one Hollywood actor managed it so you cannot completely dismiss it, but he would need to become a Senator or governor first
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    MikeP said:

    Lol.

    I thought we were supposed to have had "crossover" by now, PB Tories said so?

    Shouldn't the Tories be on a glidepath to victory by now, PBTories said so?

    I thought voters were supposed to have recoiled from "crap" Ed by now, PBTories said so?

    And the PBTories are never wrong are they?

    Perhaps The Blue's want to leave crossover long enough to make sure Ed The Younger can't be eviscerated by Lab?

    It's all in the timing...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    The Greens turn into the UKIP of the left
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4140426.ece

    It makes sense. The Lib Dems are just the moderate Greens anyway.
This discussion has been closed.