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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010
Today we’ve had four full national voting intention polls which I don’t think has happened since May 5th 2010. Just keeping up has been challenging and interpreting the data even harder.
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Comments
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Yeah but the YouGov and ComRes have the Tories only 2 points behind with around 10 months to go.
I'll take that.0 -
Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.0
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UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....0
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The polls are all over the place but any notion of Labour stretching away has clearly been debunked for now.0
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However, the poll found that Ed Miliband has only a narrow lead over David Cameron on health, traditionally one of Labour’s strongest issues. One in three people (33 per cent) trust Mr Miliband to protect the NHS, while 29 per cent trust Mr Cameron.
Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.0 -
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I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....0
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Today's 4 national polls:
Ashcroft - Con lead 2
YouGov - Lab lead 2
ComRes - Lab lead 2
Populus - Lab lead 4
Average - Lab lead 1.5
Good day for Con - especially when you add in the ComRes marginals poll as well.0 -
All those posters who were talking about Labour's widening lead.....0
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I'm just quick.JackW said:I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....
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Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?0
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This will not compute on planet left.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two in three people (67 per cent) say that they do not mind if health services are provided by a private company or the NHS as long as they remain free of charge, while 30 per cent disagree.0 -
Labour is going down clearly from a shift to UKIP.
I think changes are CON 0, LAB -3, UKIP +4, LD -1 from the last Comres phone poll0 -
True, it is line with ComRes' online poll as wellMikeSmithson said:0 -
And 16% with ICM, makes the TNS Survation numbers look less absurd for UKIP.TheScreamingEagles said:UKIP on 18% with a phone pollster.....
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That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sackedTheScreamingEagles said:Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?
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UKIP is up four points to 18 per cent, its highest in a ComRes telephone poll for The Independent; the Liberal Democrats are down one point to a record low of 7 per cent,0
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I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.0 -
I thought he was harshly treated over that sacking.ToryJim said:
That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sackedTheScreamingEagles said:Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?
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Paging any PBreds.... the red herd has grazed elsewhere for some reason tonight...0
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Clip of Rolf on a Jimmy Saville show on BBC news tonight, perhaps best not to go backstage that night!0
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Less quick than outrageously premature.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm just quick.JackW said:I note PB's very own Arjen Robben has taken an early first dive ....
If you were Arjen Robben you'd be diving in the tunnel.
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Oh probably, but then it was Tony's fault.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought he was harshly treated over that sacking.ToryJim said:
That's not as bad as the "gaffe" that got him sackedTheScreamingEagles said:Did you all see Glenn Hoddle call Algeria, Al Jazeera?
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Poor Peter Brookes, just think of the abuse he's going to get from MI5 agents posing as cybernats
Peter Brookes @BrookesTimes 12m
My cartoon Tuesday @TheTimes: Mickey Moose Salmond declares a McCaliphate #ScottishIndependence #ISIS
pic.twitter.com/VevgJRYz920 -
So the final Scores On The Board come out as:
ComRes Marginals: Bad For Lab
Populus: Good For Lab
The Divine One: Tewrrrrrrrrible for Lab/Great For Con
ComRes National Phone: Poor For Lab
YouGov: Poor For Lab
Overall a poor set of results for Lab.
#MegaPollingMonday0 -
YouGov has Labour at their usual level.0
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The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.0 -
No progress in a year.. its all over... BAD FOR UKIP!MikeSmithson said:
The thing is that all the wise monkeys were predicting UKIP would have fallen away by now
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Evening all, watching the Germans being very un-Germanic in this game. No clinical despatch of the Algerians.
So the polls seem to confirm what I've been saying for ages, the 2 main parties are much and such and all the variation is froth/margin of error.0 -
Interesting - you click between Populus and Ashcroft and you get 'crossover' in Technicolor.0
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That's quite cool.Flightpath said:Interesting - you click between Populus and Ashcroft and you get 'crossover' in Technicolor.
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I think we have got use to "record low for the LDs", well it can't go on for long, they can only fall another 7%.TheScreamingEagles said:UKIP is up four points to 18 per cent, its highest in a ComRes telephone poll for The Independent; the Liberal Democrats are down one point to a record low of 7 per cent,
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Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?0 -
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?0 -
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.0 -
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
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I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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Gem from ComRes poll.
1/5th of those 1-4 in likelyhood to vote choose Labour by far the biggest from other parties.0 -
We're clearly heading for a hung parliament. Rod Crosby was right all along.0
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I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%0 -
I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!0
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Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30
Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go0 -
as I said.. the over complacent....bigjohnowls said:Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30
Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go0 -
I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.isam said:
I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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Thanks for the kind words. At a time when Cameron is being praised by eurosceptics, it's not surprising to see UKIP down slightly, and the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour. Today's polls average Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 14%.0
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For the purposes of comparison, in June 2009, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes0
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A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..
Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.SquareRoot said:I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!
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I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
Sheffield, 1.4.1992: Neil is PM, 0.24 months to go.bigjohnowls said:Tonights COMRES LAB 329 CON 268 LD 23 Others 30
Tonights YG LAB 334 CON 274 LD 16 Others 26 (both UKPR)
Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go
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Oh you've hidden it!JackW said:
I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.isam said:
I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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The two phone polls are MoE from each other, and the two online polls are MoE from each other too.
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I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....foxinsoxuk said:A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..
Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.SquareRoot said:I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!
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Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.
EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 350 -
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
Lets just hope that Her Majesty doesn't greet him with a plateful of bacon butties!JackW said:
I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....foxinsoxuk said:A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..
Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.SquareRoot said:I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!
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Interesting ComRes subsample territory:
South West : UKIP 28, CON 26, LAB 19, LD 17
W. Midlands: CON 33, UKIP 29, LAB 25, LD 5
Wales: CON 38. LAB 30, UKIP 9, LD 0, PC 13
England total: LAB 31, CON 31, UKIP 20, LD 80 -
I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?isam said:
Oh you've hidden it!JackW said:
I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.isam said:
I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
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Do you really think that? The Kipper surge has been sustained for two years, while the Cleggasm was about a fortnightTheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
Oh!JackW said:
I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?isam said:
Oh you've hidden it!JackW said:
I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.isam said:
I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
Your letter to the mods complaining about MIkeK was there for all to read earlier... its gone now, maybe the mods deleted for you0 -
UKIP just won a national election.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
Germany are having a shocker tonight.0
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Chortle ....foxinsoxuk said:Lets just hope that Her Majesty doesn't greet him with a plateful of bacon butties!
JackW said:
I fully expect Ed to take a taxi to Buckingham Palace next May as it's usual for the LotO to be invited to State Banquets ....foxinsoxuk said:A five point Tory lead is neither likely to happen or enough to gain seats for the Tories..
Jack will dine on humble pie as Ed takes a taxi to Buckingham palace next May.SquareRoot said:I suspect that the over complacent attitude of some on the left on this site will gradually be eroded over the coming weeks. What fun it will be if the Tories pull out a 5pt lead and maintain it.. We can have Ed is crap threads right up to the GE!!
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YouGov poll for the Times on the Indyref
Yes 35 (-1) No 54 (+1) DK 9, Would not vote 2%
Changes since the YouGov poll for the Sun since Mid june0 -
ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/10 -
Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.ToryJim said:Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.
EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35
Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.
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Indeed, things do seem to be creeping in a positive direction on all counts.HYUFD said:ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/10 -
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.anotherDave said:
UKIP just won a national election.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.0 -
Do you mean YES?JackW said:
Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.ToryJim said:Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.
EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35
Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.
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There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
As I didn't they must have.isam said:
Oh!JackW said:
I have hidden nothing and am unsure where "it" would be hidden ?isam said:
Oh you've hidden it!JackW said:
I have nothing to hide except the humility of my ARSE.isam said:
I'd do something about your Vanilla page if I were youJackW said:
I'd sincerely hope you use the information before election night and get a decent return on a few shillings.Speedy said:
I'll keep that for election night.JackW said:
This will not remain the case.Speedy said:
The Tories aren't going up though, UKIP is.JackW said:I believe the principle being played out in the polls is when the public is more actively engaged in political news then Labour share will diminish.
As voters tune out again so the lead will return but continuing so over time in a slowing diminishing fashion.
By that logic the CONs and LABs will battle it around 30% in the next election while UKIP will score a good result by past 3rd party performances.
I agree with PB's most distinguished Kipper, Sean Fear, that UKIP will poll around 8-12% with the fall moving disproportionately to the Tories. Another important factor will be differential turnout that will assist the Conservatives significantly.
Of one thing we may be sure :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister.
Copyright JackW.
Your letter to the mods complaining about MIkeK was there for all to read earlier... its gone now, maybe the mods deleted for you
I don't routinely check "Vanilla" unless I'm prompted and I'm sure any MikeK related issue will be resolved in due course.
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What the Times have done is, is compare the latest YouGov with the last YouGov poll conducted for them, rather than the last YouGov poll.0
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That sounds like a quote from College at the Maltese Conference.Speedy said:
There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
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0
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D 1 - 0.0
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Maybe, but I fully expect the number of UKIP gains from the Tories in 2015 will be less than the LD gains from the Tories in 2010.Speedy said:
There is a difference, that was a surge, this is a slow long term rise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here0 -
I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.HYUFD said:ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1
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Indeed.ToryJim said:
Do you mean YES?JackW said:
Those numbers are almost a match for the ComRes Scottish subsample today.ToryJim said:Looks like the Times has a Scots Independence poll they are splashing on.
EDIT - they do NO 54 YES 35
Presently we seem to be settling in the 60/40 range. As Mark Senior is known to consider - NO is severely overcooked bread.
Apologies to Mark Senior for putting the wrong slice of bread in the toaster.
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I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.HYUFD said:ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1
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On 29/6/09 ComRes had CON 36 (-3) LAB 25 (+3) LD 19 (+1)TheScreamingEagles said:For the purposes of comparison, in June 2009, The Tories had a 16% lead with ComRes
Election result 2010 CON 36,9 LAB 29.7 LD 23.6 SWING BACK of 1.8% Tory to LAB
IMHO PB Tories are expecting too much swingback for GE 2015
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The average of the last 4 by elections since eastleigh are CON -11, LAB +1.5 , LD -15.5, UKIP +21.5, that gives UKIP 4 seats with electoral calculus.TheScreamingEagles said:
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.anotherDave said:
UKIP just won a national election.TheScreamingEagles said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)isam said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!TheScreamingEagles said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.isam said:
Oh right haha fair enoughTheScreamingEagles said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%isam said:
Oh we can all play this game!TheScreamingEagles said:
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.0 -
I miss Mick P0rk's "you are ringing the bells, but soon you will be wringing your hands" regular feature in response to Dave's EUgasms.HYUFD said:ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/1
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16% or 11% you decide0
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YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
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TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areasanotherDave said:
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP just won a national election.isam said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)TheScreamingEagles said:isam said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh right haha fair enoughisam said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%TheScreamingEagles said:isam said:
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!TGOHF said:Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
YouGov always understate
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged
But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting0 -
h1ComRes has Labour just 11 points behind
Monday, June 29th, 20090 -
Speedy said:
Actually that is 7 seats not 4.TheScreamingEagles said:
The average of the last 4 by elections since eastleigh are CON -11, LAB +1.5 , LD -15.5, UKIP +21.5, that gives UKIP 4 seats with electoral calculus.anotherDave said:
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP just won a national election.isam said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)TheScreamingEagles said:
I just pulled TGOHF up because whenever UKIP don't go up in a poll he says its all over!isam said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh right haha fair enoughisam said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%TheScreamingEagles said:
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I mentioned earlier and he said he didn't do it.. he did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.0 -
Do you think Scotland would be economically better off or worse off if it became an Independent Country,
(Changes since March)
Better off 27 (-3)
Worse off 49 (+4)
No difference 11 (+1)
DK 13 (-3)0 -
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
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IshmaelX Yes, all quiet on the Nat front tonight0
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The polling today seems a bit meh, to be honest. Ashcroft and Populus bouncing around as they normally do, both parties in their normal range with YouGov (Tories a big toppy).ToryJim said:
Indeed, things do seem to be creeping in a positive direction on all counts.HYUFD said:ToryJim Indeed, 'voters turn away from a Scottish nation state' says the Times headline tomorrow. Looks like a great night for Dave, Tories, and the Union!!
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/483726481101971456/photo/10 -
Do you think you would be financially better off or worse off if it became an Independent Country,
(Changes since March)
Better off 17 (-2)
Worse off 43 (+4)
No Difference 23 (nc)
Don't know 17 (-2)0 -
The polling today seems a bit meh, to be honest. Ashcroft and Populus bouncing around as they normally do, both parties in their normal range with YouGov (Tories a bit toppy).0
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Algeria PLAY THE BALL EARLIER!!!0
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Worryingly for the Yes campaign, it is failing to make any inroads with female voters, despite concerted efforts by the Scottish government to appeal to women, with policies such as universal free childcare and gender quotas on boards. The split among women is 62-38 for the Union, exactly the same as in March.JackW said:
Do you have a gender breakdown or at this stage are these just headline numbers ?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov polled 1,206 Scottish adults between June 25-29 for the Indyref polling
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isam said:
3/4 seats would be a fine result for UKIP.TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing that I believe you and Mike are missing when you say "Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat" is that none of the seats contested have been in favourable areasanotherDave said:
But not a FPTP election, I know the deluded Diane James thinks UKIP are on course to win 60 seats, but look at the Rallings and Thrasher predictions.TheScreamingEagles said:
UKIP just won a national election.isam said:
The greatest over-reaction on here, was during the Cleggasm, which is what the Kipper surge reminds me of (the reactions of the supporters on here and elsewhere mostly, I mean in April 2010, some Lib Dems were talking about Witney being a LD gain)TheScreamingEagles said:isam said:
You really need to stop taking any observations/analysis or predictions of UKIP not performing at the same level at the general election as they are now, as a personal attack.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh right haha fair enoughisam said:
Understated UKIP by 0.2%TheScreamingEagles said:isam said:
Predicting doom for UKIP again the minute a poll comes out?! haha don't let us bother you so!TGOHF said:Ukip being squeezed. Hodges may remain covered yet.
YouGov always understate
Oh we can all play this game!
"Euros are different to GE" etc etc
I thought either you or Mike wrote a header showing YouGov overstated Lab and Con and understated UKIP?
So we aren't to mention it? Its invalid because of the Euro polls?
Maybe it really is all over for UKIP
Sean Fear who knows more than you and I about polling and campaigning and is a Kipper expects UKIP to poll 8%-12%
I did it tonight so I pulled him
Minutes later, 18% with ComRes
Maybe you should say to him "You really need to stop etc etc" ?
I am sure Sean knows more than me about polling and campaigning but I know about over reactions and complacency in betting and I see it daily on here
Not one of UKIP's by election performances will get them a seat, and as myself and others have pointed out, it's all about seats not share of the vote.
Actually I believe that if they replicated the performances in a favourable seat, ie increase their vote share 600% as per Newark, they will win 3-4 seats, and that your approach to judging their performances, assuming it's not light hearted trolling, is misjudged
But it will play out before our eyes, should be interesting0
This discussion has been closed.