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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced
We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority.
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http://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/06/30/my-report-for-business-for-britain-on-the-dynamics-of-the-debate-over-the-eu-and-a-small-but-telling-process-point-on-the-eu/
"Over the past year or so, the government has tried to project a ‘tough’ message on immigration. The polls have not moved in favour of the Tories. The commentariat then conclude ‘the public don’t like this, it’s too nasty party’ etc. This is wrong. The reason the polls do not move is that nobody believes a word they say! Why would the polls move?!"
Topped up laying another tenner @ 3.95 this morning.
I reckon there's a gap in the market.
I reckon there's a gap in the market. The weird thing about UK politics right now is that there's nobody really running openly against free markets. Labour have done a couple of little dodges in that direction, like energy price fixing, but the basic thinking is the same right across the political spectrum, including UKIP.
I reckon there's a gap in the market.
The Greens and Respect found there wasn't much of a gap.
I reckon there's a gap in the market.I think UKIP has made some arguments in that area. They've said something along the lines of "economic growth is not the be all and end all"
They also seem to be making the distinction of being pro-market rather than pro-business.
youtu.be/BYBUHsSAYis
They also seem to be making the distinction of being pro-market rather than pro-business.
youtu.be/BYBUHsSAYis
Hmmmm: could you give me an example of UKIP being more pro-markets than others?
(As an aside, I can think of two things: opposition to CAP, and to alternative energy subsidies. But other than that...)
> punters think they know the voters minds better than the voters do
> punters aren't betting rationally
> punters don't rate the pollsters
or a combination of above.
Agreed. It just seems to me to be a 'weird' meme. All politicians, to some degree, are weird. Dave is very weird in person, now we are told Nige is the weirdest of all. Here's an idea - how about we judge people on their policies rather than using playground taunts?
> Voters are saying one thing today, that they may not actually do in 2015.
Indeed - businesses get a vote in their own right as well. But mine was a limited answer to the GS point (who get multiple votes depending on the rates that they pay).
As for the Livery Companies... well I am a Goldsmith... the City Churches have some influence as well (Warden and Sidesman).
But we haven't had a Lord Mayor in the family since the 60s... the Alderman who was the obvious person for me to take over from behaved rather badly.
I reckon there's a gap in the market.
Yes , because all those working socialist fronts of wherever are really exploiting that gap right now aren't they...
Unless you are one of those Krazie Kippers who thinks that the Tories aren't the real CON
The PM can't plan for everything: what voters need to try and assess is how they will react to changing circumstances. Personally, I don't think that "weird" is a very useful metric to use, but character and judgement are absolutely critical.
"how about we judge people on their policies rather than using playground taunts?"
Naah ... rubbish idea. Let's keep taunting them.
It needs attacking from the centre or the populist right. The BNP sort-of did it, but they have a lot of other baggage.
Yeah but, if you're in the centre or on the 'right', then by definition, you're going to be more pro free markets.
The BNP may be 'right wing' in terms of racist views, but really aren't economically.
Oh.
As with you will lose far too much if I am wrong on this.
Can see Mrs BJ (ooh err mrs) demanding a divorce too so not all bad
Why is that, do you think?
Edit: As I type that, they lose their first wicket.
(I'll get my coat...)
David Cameron to make a statement at 3.30pm on the #EuropeanCouncil. Watch live online http://goo.gl/RWszjr . No Urgent Questions today.
Don't tell her I told you!!!
Fiona Hamilton @Fhamiltontimes · 6m
Thurlbeck agrees phone #hacking "approved corporate policy" at NoW and known to several ppl above him including Andy Coulson
Fiona Hamilton @Fhamiltontimes · 1m
Neville Thurlbeck's QC says that his tasking of phone #hacking was "expressly approved" by Andy Coulson, PM's former director of comms
Peter Jukes @peterjukes 8m
BREAKING: Thurlbeck says voicemail hackings "were a corporate practice" known to Kuttner, Coulson, senior NOTW exec and NI lawyer
WI +16.35
NZ +16.26
Draw +1.99
Tremendously sporting of McCullum
RT @peterwalker99 That's it - Rolf Harris convicted, unanimously, of 12 counts of indecent assault.
Fishing nets are regulated to have a minimum size, so that the young of a species can survive to breed, rather than being caught and eaten. The sensible intention being to preserve a future population of fish that we can continue to eat. The consequence in some species appears to be that fish who grow to a smaller size in adulthood are more likely to escape the nets, and so we have introduced a selective pressure on evolution to favour smaller fish. Which provide less meat for us to eat.
I remember hearing about some researchers who showed that if you targeted medium-sized fish you would create selective pressure for fish who grew quickly to maturity, thus selecting for a more favourable attribute.
The point being, the most successful British politician of the last twenty years isn't best known for being a liar completely by accident or personal lack of moral fibre - but because the entire edifice is constructed to encourage the telling of fibs. The only requirement is that they tell good fibs, and don't get caught too often.
My wife hadn't realised the problem up to that point...
Ginger Minge (5 across, 5 down http://www.generally-speaking.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ginger-minge.JPG)
Chew Kok Long http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lkealcUvBc1qctkcl.jpg
and Willie Stroker http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ljpiz4f0e61qctkcl.jpg
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 3m
Breaking: Unite's local government workers vote to join a general strike on July 10 - on the day Len McCluskey unveils Labour election cash.
Easy to compare the severity vs. attention.
My favourite remains "And the batsman's Holding, the bowler's Willey", TM Johnners
But TSE's reaction was pretty much spot on ;-)
Mike Litoris of Miichigan.
Randy Bumgardner, who works at the US Embassy.
Lee Bum Suk, the South Korean foreign minister, who was assassinated by North Korea.
V sad.
Was later told by one of the Derbyshire players that they made up silly announcements on a regular basis and they were always read out by the major.
Left Hand : Right Hand
I've just paced a small bet on Elizabeth Warren becoming the next POTUS on the Betfair Exchange at 25, equivalent to 22.8/1 net of comm'n, in old money.
Meanwhile Betfair Sportsbook, their fixed odds side of the business, have her on offer at a measly 10/1.
(but that's the way I heard it - although it occurred before I used to appreciate test cricket)
The old one, yes
"Well, we all feel like that from time to time."
The second paragraph of the tread is incorrect.
Line two should read "No majority up nearly 5% to above 44% ...." rather than "Con majority ...."
- Ignoring who the agreement is with, if average global tariff barriers are a 0, and a complete single market is a 100, where would you place a modern goods and services (a la EU-Korea) free trade agreement on the scale? I would put it at about an 85.
- You say trade with China is not as important as with the EU. But how would trade with India AND China rate? What about with USA, Canada, India and China? What combination of markets would you think have to be important enough to match the EU? How about in 15-20 years time? This paragraph doesn't actually address the contradictory comments point, so its a separate argument. But anyway, obviously the UK alone isn't as interesting to China as the whole EU is. But outside the EU, it wouldn't be just the UK a Chinese company investing in the UK would look at - it would be the UK plus everyone the have free trade with. That's because anything produced by a Chinese company in the UK could be exported to anyone we have free trade with. This point is thus just comes back to the free trade one, so I find it misleading when EU types try to claim it as a separate argument.
There's also the fact that negotiating for the whole EU means you need to cater for 27 countries with their own veto points and special interests that we don't need to worry about when it's just the UK.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28094561
Must be a non person, with no employment history.
but what's an hour between friends...
Talking of which... I mis-read this tweet, I think he means Cammo?
George Eaton@georgeeaton·1 min
Miliband on Cameron: "The problem for the anti-Juncker cause is that it had a toxic supporter - him".
Cameron on Miliband: "We have heard yet another performance worthy of Neil Kinnock... endless words, endless wind." The Tories LOVED that
@joeyjonessky
@Ed_Miliband actually on pretty decent form, but PM slapped back v hard with Kinnock jibe.
Open Europe @OpenEurope 26s
Cameron to Miliband: Where were your socialist allies? They all met in Paris where they agreed to support Juncker, he wasn't even invited
The former News of the World editor was convicted of conspiracy to hack phones last week following an eight month trial.
He also faces a retrial on two charges of conspiracy to corrupt public officials after the jury failed to reach verdicts on those counts.
He will be sentenced on Friday and faces a maximum two year jail term.
But in a further blow it has now emerged that Coulson could have to pay a large portion of the vast sum it cost the taxpayer to bring the case
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/10935890/Andy-Coulson-could-have-to-pay-back-750000-in-phone-hacking-trial.html
England 0 - 5 India -£2088 !
The veto point's the most critical, though.