Ooh interesting that the Tories are up so strongly in a week. Nice to see a blue lead will be interesting to see if it's repeated by other pollsters in future.
So Coulson and Juncker were both not quite as disastrous as some were contending then.
I am reliant on the cool, impartial and objective comments on here about the Commons this afternoon but does anybody else get the impression that Cameron has been lifting his game recently? He seems more focussed and sharper than he was last year.
Despite the amusement factors the volatility of his Lordship's numbers continues to concern. I would like to see this confirmed by someone with a somewhat longer track record before I get too excited.
The Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%.
The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained.
The Juncker Effect, if that is what it is, certainly outweighs any Coulson Effect. Indeed it seems unlikely that last week’s court verdicts will have moved many votes at all. People inclined to look unfavourably on Tories’ relationship with senior figures in the Murdoch media are unlikely to have outsourced their voting decisions to the jury.
Mr. L, it's been suggested before that Cameron raises his game when he's under attack (cf conference 2007 for the best example), and recently, with Coulson and Juncker, that's certainly been the case.
''Lord Ashcroft's polling is rather bouncy, it must be said.''
In his comments the noble lord suggests the changes could be attributed to the Juncker effect.
The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Jean-Claude Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained.
The Juncker Effect, if that is what it is, certainly outweighs any Coulson Effect. Indeed, it seems unlikely that last week’s court verdicts will have moved many votes at all. People inclined to look unfavourably on the Tories’ relationship with senior figures in the Murdoch media are unlikely to have outsourced their voting decisions to the jury.
The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president.
The volatility makes the polling suspect but the more interesting part of the poll is Labour down to 31%. Pretty sure that is a new low for some considerable time with any of the pollsters.
For the tories to have a lead with UKIP still on 15% is also perplexing. Is Miliband losing some Labour supporters to the tories?
My guess is that Yougov will have a Labour lead of 4% this evening.
The volatility makes the polling suspect but the more interesting part of the poll is Labour down to 31%. Pretty sure that is a new low for some considerable time with any of the pollsters.
For the tories to have a lead with UKIP still on 15% is also perplexing. Is Miliband losing some Labour supporters to the tories?
My guess is that Yougov will have a Labour lead of 4% this evening.
When is Yougov polling done for a Monday night poll?
The volatility makes the polling suspect but the more interesting part of the poll is Labour down to 31%. Pretty sure that is a new low for some considerable time with any of the pollsters.
For the tories to have a lead with UKIP still on 15% is also perplexing. Is Miliband losing some Labour supporters to the tories?
My guess is that Yougov will have a Labour lead of 4% this evening.
There's also a comres phone poll out this evening, that will be interesting than the YouGov.
Quote - voters overall would prefer to see Labour in office than the Tories. Nearly a third (32%) said they wanted a Labour government, and a further 8% a Labour coalition with the Lib Dems. One quarter wanted the Conservatives in government alone (25%), and a further 9% in another Con-Lib Dem coalition. Notably, only four fifths of Labour voters and three quarters of Tories wanted to see their respective parties governing alone.
The volatility makes the polling suspect but the more interesting part of the poll is Labour down to 31%. Pretty sure that is a new low for some considerable time with any of the pollsters.
For the tories to have a lead with UKIP still on 15% is also perplexing. Is Miliband losing some Labour supporters to the tories?
My guess is that Yougov will have a Labour lead of 4% this evening.
When is Yougov polling done for a Monday night poll?
If Labour had been in office since 2010, what would be better today - and what would be worse? pic.twitter.com/FuSmhR6I2R
Most interesting results the cuts and crime questions - both very close.
The Tories won't be surprised to be trailing on the NHS, although - given that the NHS would not have been ringfenced under Labour - they might feel aggrieved at that.
My own take is that Labour is probably 2/3% ahead, but with margin of error/sampling variations and a general polling trend not favouring Labour and somewhat favouring the Tories we’re going to be seeing a volatile period in the polling for a while, as the Tories and Lab alternate the lead, until we see a new trend emerging, but for the time being, I wouldn’t advise the Blues or Reds to get over-excited or despondent by any one poll.
Don't worry. My wife's name is Ana. Her middle name starts with an L. Combined with our surname some might consider that unfortunate.
What is your surname Charles?
I'd rather not say, if you don't mind. It's rather uncommon, and googling my first and surnames might lead people to place more weight on some of my comments (which are entirely my own and not those of any organisation or entity) than they deserve.
The Juncker bounce will probably subside fairly quickly but Ed M has to stop his impersonation of Softy Walter. "Oooh, those big bully focus groups say I have to go big on this. I'll just write a short 30,000 word speech saying that I might in some circumstances, perhaps think about doing something to .... zzzzzzz"
Michael Foot without the decisiveness.
Standing up to Murdoch only counts when you've got something to lose.
Is it true Ed asked Dougie if he'd flunked it as he sat down?
The tweets I saw said he'd done well (NS, Behr)
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress·3 mins Hi @DAlexanderMP, what was your reply when @Ed_Miliband asked you if he'd "flunked it" on Commons Europe statement?
Despite being a Tory supporter I remain amazed at the faith shown in Lord Ashcroft's polls on this site. Today's poll is good news but reliable? His marginal polls good for Labour but reliable? I don't bet thankfully but if I did these kind of polls would not be my guiding light.
If Labour had been in office since 2010, what would be better today - and what would be worse? pic.twitter.com/FuSmhR6I2R
What is it about the NHS as an issue which causes poll respondents to be so irrational?
Looking at the weekend Survation Poll it ended with a penalty shootout between the UK and Germany.
The question was:
Which country, the UK or Germany, would you personally rate as best at each of the following things?
The subject then changed with each penalty taken
Beer
UK 31.1% Germany 48.5% Don't Know 20.4%
Cars
UK 19.6% Germany 67.1% Don't Know 13.3%
Germany even sneaked a win on weather by a single percentage point.
But when it came to Healthcare System this was the result:
UK 60.0 Germany 17.6 Don't Know 22.3
That cannot possibly be a rational or informed view.
Experience?
People have experienced German Beer, Cars and even weather, but most have no first hand experience of the Health Care in Germany. Also you would have a Dr talking to you in a foreign language which makes people uncomfortable and nervous in medical matters.
Mr. L, surely Labour losing socially conservative (as it were) white working class voters to UKIP directly is more likely?
There was a neat map in today's Times, showing where Labour was, and wasn't threatened by UKIP, with an article by Matthew Goodwin. In the Euros and local elections, UKIP did very well in the former coalfields of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, South Yorkshire, as well as parts of the urban West Midlands. But, UKIP pose no threat to Labour in those urban areas where Labour support is based on students, ethnic minorities, better off public sector workers etc.
If Labour had been in office since 2010, what would be better today - and what would be worse? pic.twitter.com/FuSmhR6I2R
What is it about the NHS as an issue which causes poll respondents to be so irrational?
Looking at the weekend Survation Poll it ended with a penalty shootout between the UK and Germany.
The question was:
Which country, the UK or Germany, would you personally rate as best at each of the following things?
The subject then changed with each penalty taken
Beer
UK 31.1% Germany 48.5% Don't Know 20.4%
Cars
UK 19.6% Germany 67.1% Don't Know 13.3%
Germany even sneaked a win on weather by a single percentage point.
But when it came to Healthcare System this was the result:
UK 60.0 Germany 17.6 Don't Know 22.3
That cannot possibly be a rational or informed view.
Experience?
People have experienced German Beer, Cars and even weather, but most have no first hand experience of the Health Care in Germany. Also you would have a Dr talking to you in a foreign language which makes people uncomfortable and nervous in medical matters.
One thing the Germans are better than us (or anybody else) at is building model railways. Its the 8th Wonder of the world is the Minature Wunderland in Hamburg!
Despite being a Tory supporter I remain amazed at the faith shown in Lord Ashcroft's polls on this site. Today's poll is good news but reliable? His marginal polls good for Labour but reliable? I don't bet thankfully but if I did these kind of polls would not be my guiding light.
It would be nice to know which company carries out the field work.
Presumably Lord A doesn't spend his weekend phoning up 1000 people at random, so some company is doing this on his behalf.
Don't worry. My wife's name is Ana. Her middle name starts with an L. Combined with our surname some might consider that unfortunate.
What is your surname Charles?
I'd rather not say, if you don't mind. It's rather uncommon, and googling my first and surnames might lead people to place more weight on some of my comments (which are entirely my own and not those of any organisation or entity) than they deserve. But TSE's reaction was pretty much spot on ;-)
One grandmother of mine had the maiden name Hooker. Glad to have missed that one.
Mr. L, surely Labour losing socially conservative (as it were) white working class voters to UKIP directly is more likely?
There was a neat map in today's Times, showing where Labour was, and wasn't threatened by UKIP, with an article by Matthew Goodwin. In the Euros and local elections, UKIP did very well in the former coalfields of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, South Yorkshire, as well as parts of the urban West Midlands. But, UKIP pose no threat to Labour in those urban areas where Labour support is based on students, ethnic minorities, better off public sector workers etc.
UKIP is a threat to "Proper Labour" - it is also where Ed Miliband goes down like a cup of cold sick.
Should I do a survey on Ed Miliband in the local working men's club in my village in Derbyshire ?
I've just paced a small bet on Elizabeth Warren becoming the next POTUS on the Betfair Exchange at 25, equivalent to 22.8/1 net of comm'n, in old money. Meanwhile Betfair Sportsbook, their fixed odds side of the business, have her on offer at a measly 10/1.
Was it you that placed the 1k on Elizabeth Warren today?
Er ..... No, mine was just a fiver with Betfair. I believe the £1000 bet was placed with Shadsy & Co.
The german healthcare system is very good and something I always bring up when people go on about the american private health care system. Basically you pay a sickness insurance, and those who are not working register at the local office when they are unemployed and the government pays their insurance.
This system benefits from all people being covered through either basic insurance (AOK) or enhanced private insurance. However the basic would cover all sickness and is what most Germans have and is paid based on your earnings. It is obligatory but the government does not get involved in the practice of dictating healthcare standards to it's citizens, and therefore the standards of healthcare are higher than ours. There are quirks like you pay an admin fee each quarter if you see the doctor.
Anyway there are benefits to our system in that you never have to think about it really, there is no form filling, and generally no-one takes payments in the system. However generally our healthcare system is more expensive and less successful but both these facts are intangible, so it is not a surprise that people think our healthcare system is better.
Comments
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 12s
Ashcroft National Poll, 27-29 June: CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
Changes since last week, Con +5, Lab -2, LD no change, UKIP -2
I demand his presence on this thread immediately! Basil's funeral needs to be organised.
Does Ashcroft give us hope for YouGov this evening? [Asks forlornly].
That's a pretty volatile series from Lord Ashcroft
Junker bounce..
I wonder who Bouchard's playing next... it's Sharapova, if she beats Kerber. That'd be a repeat of the French Open semi. Shame, really.
I am reliant on the cool, impartial and objective comments on here about the Commons this afternoon but does anybody else get the impression that Cameron has been lifting his game recently? He seems more focussed and sharper than he was last year.
Despite the amusement factors the volatility of his Lordship's numbers continues to concern. I would like to see this confirmed by someone with a somewhat longer track record before I get too excited.
CROSSOVER
CROSSOVER
CHRISSYWADDLE
x2
The Conservatives have climbed 5 points to 33% in today’s Ashcroft National Poll, giving them a 2-point lead over Labour, who are down 2 points on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 9%, UKIP down 2 points at 15%, and the Greens down 1 point at 6%.
The boost in the Tory share may well be largely thanks to Mr Juncker: the poll was taken between Friday afternoon and Sunday evening, when political news was dominated by David Cameron’s stance against the appointment of the new European Commission president. We will see in the coming weeks whether this support can be sustained.
The Juncker Effect, if that is what it is, certainly outweighs any Coulson Effect. Indeed it seems unlikely that last week’s court verdicts will have moved many votes at all. People inclined to look unfavourably on Tories’ relationship with senior figures in the Murdoch media are unlikely to have outsourced their voting decisions to the jury.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/ashcroft-national-poll-con-33-lab-31-lib-dem-9-ukip-15/
In his comments the noble lord suggests the changes could be attributed to the Juncker effect.
Paging @DPJHodges Tory poll lead. Come in Hodges. Genuinely looking forward to his "I told you so, you wouldn't listen" column.
Ed is crap is PM but only just.
Interesting to see if other polls reflect this position
If Labour had been in office since 2010, what would be better today - and what would be worse? pic.twitter.com/FuSmhR6I2R
The Juncker Effect, if that is what it is, certainly outweighs any Coulson Effect. Indeed, it seems unlikely that last week’s court verdicts will have moved many votes at all. People inclined to look unfavourably on the Tories’ relationship with senior figures in the Murdoch media are unlikely to have outsourced their voting decisions to the jury.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/06/lord-ashcroft-the-conservatives-gain-five-points-and-overtake-labour-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html
Didn't there used to be a poster who was convinced Cameron would have to resign because of a horse?
For the tories to have a lead with UKIP still on 15% is also perplexing. Is Miliband losing some Labour supporters to the tories?
My guess is that Yougov will have a Labour lead of 4% this evening.
Ashcroft is probably an outlier.
The Tories won't be surprised to be trailing on the NHS, although - given that the NHS would not have been ringfenced under Labour - they might feel aggrieved at that.
My own take is that Labour is probably 2/3% ahead, but with margin of error/sampling variations and a general polling trend not favouring Labour and somewhat favouring the Tories we’re going to be seeing a volatile period in the polling for a while, as the Tories and Lab alternate the lead, until we see a new trend emerging, but for the time being, I wouldn’t advise the Blues or Reds to get over-excited or despondent by any one poll.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/19/the-second-lord-ashcroft-poll-has-labour-six-ahead/
So the scores on the board (Miss Ford) so far are:
ComRes Marginals = Bad For Lab
Populus = Good For Lab
The Good Lord = Horrible for Lab/Great For Con
We await ComRes phone and YouGov.
Actually think today's poll has more to do with issues with Ashcroft polling methodology. Like I said before, fluctuations are too wide.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes 2m
@DPJHodges Don't be so coy. Revel in it son.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m
@GuidoFawkes ...I'm saving that one for the day after the election..
Sharapova 3.55
Kvitova 4.4
Bouchard 9
Radwanska 9.4
Lisicki 9.6
Halep 9.8
Savarova 36
Kerber 42
Strycova 50
Makarova 110
Shvedova 110
Diyas 280
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.110016499
What did you make of Peter Hitchens' views that it is shameful and childish that this stuff is part of political discourse?
I don't think Farage should be subject to it any more than Ed is, by the way.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/06/labours-internecine-squabbles-mean-it-missed-an-open-goal-to-attack-cameron-over-europe/
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiVq5-u7MH0
Good poll for the Conservatives though, no doubt about that.
Michael Foot without the decisiveness.
Standing up to Murdoch only counts when you've got something to lose.
The tweets I saw said he'd done well (NS, Behr)
CCHQ Press Office@CCHQPress·3 mins
Hi @DAlexanderMP, what was your reply when @Ed_Miliband asked you if he'd "flunked it" on Commons Europe statement?
Looking at the weekend Survation Poll it ended with a penalty shootout between the UK and Germany.
The question was:
Which country, the UK or Germany, would you personally rate as best at each of the following things?
The subject then changed with each penalty taken
Beer Cars Germany even sneaked a win on weather by a single percentage point.
But when it came to Healthcare System this was the result: That cannot possibly be a rational or informed view.
People have experienced German Beer, Cars and even weather, but most have no first hand experience of the Health Care in Germany. Also you would have a Dr talking to you in a foreign language which makes people uncomfortable and nervous in medical matters.
My experience of foreigners generally is that they are infinitely more likely to be multilingual than UK born people.
Presumably Lord A doesn't spend his weekend phoning up 1000 people at random, so some company is doing this on his behalf.
Should I do a survey on Ed Miliband in the local working men's club in my village in Derbyshire ?
This system benefits from all people being covered through either basic insurance (AOK) or enhanced private insurance. However the basic would cover all sickness and is what most Germans have and is paid based on your earnings. It is obligatory but the government does not get involved in the practice of dictating healthcare standards to it's citizens, and therefore the standards of healthcare are higher than ours. There are quirks like you pay an admin fee each quarter if you see the doctor.
Anyway there are benefits to our system in that you never have to think about it really, there is no form filling, and generally no-one takes payments in the system. However generally our healthcare system is more expensive and less successful but both these facts are intangible, so it is not a surprise that people think our healthcare system is better.