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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Midnight polling round-up with more positive news for the LDs on students and more from the marginals

In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    first.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Is being long students really a good thing?

    I thought that they had a lower propensity to vote, which would suggest that the Lib Dem polling is overstating their support on the day.

    On the flip side, one would assume that in May students are at uni, so would be concentrated in a relatively small number of seats?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Is that student news really good news for the Lib Dems?

    Back in 2010, 48% of students voted Lib Dem.

    48% of students voted for the Lib Dems on Election Day, compared to 22% voting for each of the other two main parties. (Fieldwork dates: 7 -10 May 2010)

    http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/2010/12/05/liberal-democrats-dumped-by-the-student-electorate-after-a-whirlwind-romance/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is that student news really good news for the Lib Dems?

    Back in 2010, 48% of students voted Lib Dem.

    48% of students voted for the Lib Dems on Election Day, compared to 22% voting for each of the other two main parties. (Fieldwork dates: 7 -10 May 2010)

    http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/2010/12/05/liberal-democrats-dumped-by-the-student-electorate-after-a-whirlwind-romance/

    Spinning here ^_~
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Wonder what UKIP is on amongst students ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Conservatives have dropped to 31% with the updated UKPR polling average:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2

    Lab 36%
    Con 31%
    UKIP 15%
    LD 8%
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is that student news really good news for the Lib Dems?

    Back in 2010, 48% of students voted Lib Dem.

    48% of students voted for the Lib Dems on Election Day, compared to 22% voting for each of the other two main parties. (Fieldwork dates: 7 -10 May 2010)

    http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/2010/12/05/liberal-democrats-dumped-by-the-student-electorate-after-a-whirlwind-romance/

    I thought I read that earlier, but thought I must be wrong else OGH. Wouldn't make the point he did

    It seems like bad news for the lib Dems doesn't it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    Do we have a view on why the Ashcroft and ComRes marginal polls are markedly different? Can't think of a particular methodological reason, but as Mike implies the ComRes poll would produce moderate Labour gains and something rather like a tie overall, whereas Ashcroft would have Labour romping home. Ashcroft polled fewer, tighter marginals IIRC.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    Watching itv news re ISIS

    Is it me or is this the scariest/most like a Hollywood movie terrorist movement yet?

    It's like a bond film but it's real
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's difficult to understand the divergence between the Ashcroft and Survation polls. Labour were up 4% in the Ashcroft marginals compared to down by 1% with Survation.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/24/the-ashcroft-polling-is-out-and-its-great-for-ed/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    edited June 2014
    isam said:

    Watching itv news re ISIS

    Is it me or is this the scariest/most like a Hollywood movie terrorist movement yet?

    It's like a bond film but it's real

    Heh, not sure - they do enjoy their propoganda videos of explosions and murder though.

    Tikrit may be tricky for the Iraqi Baghdad Shia Gov't to retake, all the Sunni tribes in the north are going to rally round "TheSunni Islamic State"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to understand the divergence between the Ashcroft and Survation polls. Labour were up 4% in the Ashcroft marginals compared to down by 1% with Survation.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/24/the-ashcroft-polling-is-out-and-its-great-for-ed/

    Which polls are polled in the marginal poll ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Is that student news really good news for the Lib Dems?

    Back in 2010, 48% of students voted Lib Dem.

    48% of students voted for the Lib Dems on Election Day, compared to 22% voting for each of the other two main parties. (Fieldwork dates: 7 -10 May 2010)

    http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/2010/12/05/liberal-democrats-dumped-by-the-student-electorate-after-a-whirlwind-romance/

    Spinning here ^_~
    Quite. It's frankly bizarre for a respected political blogger to post a 35 point reduction in support as 'good news'. Yeah, slightly more geeky dreamers support the dying party than normal human beings. They'll be able to focus on that to protect the 15 seats they'll have left. Or not.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    Blimey
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    Watching itv news re ISIS

    Is it me or is this the scariest/most like a Hollywood movie terrorist movement yet?

    It's like a bond film but it's real

    World War 3 has begun, get used to it I'd say.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    Blimey
    http://youtu.be/WcRFlcXCkoc
    Takes a real man to say it like it is (was)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    Blimey
    http://youtu.be/WcRFlcXCkoc
    Takes a real man to say it like it is (was)
    The Day Today was one of the satire best shows ever. Pity it only lasted for 4 weeks. Maybe it was too intelligent for its time.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Every marginal poll in the last couple of months have been good to Labour.

    Proves Ed is crap !
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    Blimey
    http://youtu.be/WcRFlcXCkoc
    Takes a real man to say it like it is (was)
    The Day Today was one of the satire best shows ever. Pity it only lasted for 4 weeks. Maybe it was too intelligent for its time.
    Chris Morris is a God, force feeding the bullsh!t we accept back down our throats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Isam/dyedwoolie/Andy JS Exactly, this was the first time he had been confronted by the allegations, although carefully phrased, his comments about his deceased mother are best not thought about "When she died she was all mine. The best five days of my life were spent with the Duchess when she was dead. She looked marvellous. She belonged to me. It’s wonderful, is death.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited June 2014
    On ISIS They have now moved onto crucifixion, if this ends up being a war between Iran and Saudi I suggest we stay clear and leave them to it, night!
    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/29/world/meast/syria-reported-crucifixions/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edmundintokyo said:

    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
    A smart strategy would be to get them to register in their parents marginal constiuencies, rather than the safe urban seats where many of those unis will be..
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    assuming the law still allows that. I had two votes once, by accident. I only used one.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    "Isis rebels declare 'caliphate' in Iraq and Syria

    Islamist militant group Isis has said it is establishing a caliphate, or Islamic state, on the territories it controls in Iraq and Syria.

    It also proclaimed the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph and "leader for Muslims everywhere".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28082962
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to understand the divergence between the Ashcroft and Survation polls. Labour were up 4% in the Ashcroft marginals compared to down by 1% with Survation.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/24/the-ashcroft-polling-is-out-and-its-great-for-ed/

    There's very little difference between Survation and the Ashcroft National Poll.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I have updated the main post

    This marginals poll is bad for LAB and gives hope to CON

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    "Isis rebels declare 'caliphate' in Iraq and Syria

    Islamist militant group Isis has said it is establishing a caliphate, or Islamic state, on the territories it controls in Iraq and Syria.

    It also proclaimed the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph and "leader for Muslims everywhere".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28082962

    The desired territory according to ZH

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/06/ISIS envisioned boundaries_1.jpg
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    AndyJS said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    Blimey
    http://youtu.be/WcRFlcXCkoc
    Takes a real man to say it like it is (was)
    The Day Today was one of the satire best shows ever. Pity it only lasted for 4 weeks. Maybe it was too intelligent for its time.
    Brass Eye's paedophile and drugs episodes were among the funniest things ever aired on British TV.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edmundintokyo said:

    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
    It's also a tad misleading. If you don't have an NI number (as many students won't, not having yet entered the workforce) you can say so on the online enrollment form, and may subsequently have to provide proof of address:

    https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
    It's also a tad misleading. If you don't have an NI number (as many students won't, not having yet entered the workforce) you can say so on the online enrollment form, and may subsequently have to provide proof of address:

    https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
    Not sure you are right here. Unless the policy has changed since my day, everyone is issued with a National Ins No on their 16th birthday.

    So I think they will have one, but whether they know what it is is another matter. My NI No has been imprinted in my mind since I got it , in the same way as anyone who has been in the army never forgets their army number.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SquareRoot said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
    It's also a tad misleading. If you don't have an NI number (as many students won't, not having yet entered the workforce) you can say so on the online enrollment form, and may subsequently have to provide proof of address:

    https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
    Not sure you are right here. Unless the policy has changed since my day, everyone is issued with a National Ins No on their 16th birthday.
    You'll be sent a National Insurance number automatically just before your 16th birthday if both of the following apply:
    you live in the United Kingdom
    your parents or guardians are getting Child Benefit for you

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/ni/intro/number.htm

    So that will now be quite a few children of well off parents not getting NI numbers.......

    In my day you had to go to the employment exchange in person and apply - which I only did as I had a summer job......otherwise it wouldn't have happened until I started post-Uni full time work.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,690
    The Independent’s Jimmy Saville interview is, in the light of subsequent events, chilling.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Meanwhile .... one of the final planks of the Coalitions Economics Plan A is likely to fall into place and may also have significant consequences for the Scottish referendum debate and a huge boost to the Scottish economy as oil revenue dips :

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/scotland/10933974/Britain-asks-America-to-end-ban-on-haggis.html
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,953
    40 seats? 1000 surveyed? So just 25 per seat.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JackW said:

    Meanwhile .... one of the final planks of the Coalitions Economics Plan A is likely to fall into place and may also have significant consequences for the Scottish referendum debate and a huge boost to the Scottish economy as oil revenue dips :

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/scotland/10933974/Britain-asks-America-to-end-ban-on-haggis.html

    Eck looks pleased:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sparks-clash-david-3783632

    Curious body language......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Which are the 40 seats this poll takes place in ?

    If so we just need to compare to Ashcroft and potentially value can be identified in the safest Conservative seat in the Comres compared to the Ashcroft seats.

    That said this poll came out before just before Ashcroft iirc, and there is a slight movement to Labour since then so its not terrible.

    Ashcroft's large marginal polling work and the overall picture look like better work to bet on quite frankly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,371
    My 17 year old had to apply for her NI number when she started part time work. It was a right nuisance, holding up her pay for several weeks. Although we have to pay it all back we were getting CB for her at the time.

    OTOH she was automatically enrolled onto the electoral register as she has a vote in the referendum. I don't know if the referendum made any difference but it really did seem to happen without any activity on our part. I think she was already on the register but not eligible to vote until the age was changed. If we filled in any form about that it was some years ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    No good deed goes unpunished:

    Haggis at heart of Holyrood and Westminster trade row

    Coalition Environment Secretary Owen Paterson will today hold talks with his opposite number in the US Government in a bid to overturn a 40-year ban on the import of haggis.

    However, Mr Paterson was accused by Scotland's Rural Affairs Secretary, Richard Lochhead, of taking up the issue only in response to September's independence referendum.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/haggis-at-heart-of-holyrood-and-westminster-trade-row.24621070
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    considering some of the things the US considers food, they've got a right cheek banning haggis
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2014
    DavidL said:

    My 17 year old had to apply for her NI number when she started part time work. It was a right nuisance, holding up her pay for several weeks. Although we have to pay it all back we were getting CB for her at the time.

    OTOH she was automatically enrolled onto the electoral register as she has a vote in the referendum. I don't know if the referendum made any difference but it really did seem to happen without any activity on our part. I think she was already on the register but not eligible to vote until the age was changed. If we filled in any form about that it was some years ago.

    Times must have changed.
    AFAIK , not having a Nat Ins No is no reason to withhold payment of wages lawfully earned. The Employer must have done the relevant checks to ensure the right to work otherwise you daughter would have been barred from working.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited June 2014
    CarlottaVance said:

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile .... one of the final planks of the Coalitions Economics Plan A is likely to fall into place and may also have significant consequences for the Scottish referendum debate and a huge boost to the Scottish economy as oil revenue dips :

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/scotland/10933974/Britain-asks-America-to-end-ban-on-haggis.html

    Eck looks pleased:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sparks-clash-david-3783632

    Curious body language......
    "Turning the chin and head down protects the vulnerable neck from attack. It also avoids looking the other person in the face (staring is a sign of aggression)."

    Wee, sleeket, cowran, tim'rous beastie.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,371
    SquareRoot said:

    DavidL said:

    My 17 year old had to apply for her NI number when she started part time work. It was a right nuisance, holding up her pay for several weeks. Although we have to pay it all back we were getting CB for her at the time.

    OTOH she was automatically enrolled onto the electoral register as she has a vote in the referendum. I don't know if the referendum made any difference but it really did seem to happen without any activity on our part. I think she was already on the register but not eligible to vote until the age was changed. If we filled in any form about that it was some years ago.

    Times must have changed.
    AFAIK , not having a Nat Ins No is no reason to withhold payment of wages lawfully earned. The Employer must have done the relevant checks to ensure the right to work otherwise you daughter would have been barred from working.
    The employer is not the most reliable but she was initially interviewed in her school uniform so I would assume her eligibility for work would have been taken for granted. After they got the NI number she did get all her back pay. I suspect you are right that they could have given her at least some of the money but they didn't.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    dugarbandier said:

    considering some of the things the US considers food, they've got a right cheek banning haggis

    I remember the Jamie Oliver program on US school dinners where they satisfied the state breakfast requirement of a serving of "bread" and "fruit" by serving pizza.......

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    edited June 2014
    These are the Conservative seats in the marginal Comres poll that are not in the Ashcroft polls...

    018 Carlisle 853 2.02 1.31 Labour
    019 Stroud 1299 2.24 1.66 Labour
    020 Weaver Vale 991 2.25 1.47 Labour
    021 Lincoln 1058 2.31 1.44 Labour
    023 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 1149 2.62 1.58 Labour
    024 Dewsbury 1526 2.83 1.93 Labour
    025 Warrington South 1553 2.83 1.96 Labour
    026 Bedford 1353 3.00 1.97 Labour
    027 Brighton Kemptown 1328 3.11 2.01 Labour
    028 Pudsey 1659 3.38 2.40 Labour
    029 Corby 1895 3.49 2.43 Labour
    031 Brentford & Isleworth 1958 3.64 2.34 Labour
    032 Hove 1868 3.75 2.60 Labour

    The Conservatives only had a 0.5% swing against them in Pudsey as can be seen by the Fabian's handy chart:

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/


    JackW has it TCTC in his "Ones to watch also"

    the combination of these factors leads me to think that Pudsey is worth a fiver on the Conservatives @ 9-4.


    DYOR
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edmundintokyo said:

    NickPalmer said:

    This is a segment of the electorate where I expect individual registration to make a major impact - as I understand it, first-time voters have to apply individually, quoting their NI numbers, while existing voters get rolled on? If I've got that right, the 18-22 age group is going to be heavily under-registered compared with past elections, when universities sometimes enrolled them all en bloc.

    That's evil, is anyone organizing a Project Lemonade-like response to this or is everyone just resigning themselves to living in a gerontocracy?
    No, it's not evil.

    They just need to get off their arses and ensure that they are registered.

    That's a small price to pay for the security of the ballot.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    OT: has anyone done a list of LibDem seats in student towns (Cambridge, Bristol, Cardiff, etc.) that would be particularly vulnerable to the two-thirds reduction in LibDem student vote share?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    Mike I take it there is an error in that the 2% lead is a LAB one not CON.

    Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Just to make it clear, I still think it will be Lab most seats at the GE - but Pudsey could be a blue island in the tide of red.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    Pudsey is the new Basildon (cough)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    OK,I'm back with #TeamBlue after ComRes.

    Coulson's (probably) off to prison today isn't he?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike I take it there is an error in that the 2% lead is a LAB one not CON.

    Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.

    Nope, it is a 2% Tory lead.

    In these seats in the general election, the Tories and Lab were tied, since then, there's been a 2.5% swing from Con to Lab.

    Nationally, the Tories lead by over 6% in 2010, so a 2% Tory lead is accurate considering the swing is 2.5%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    From this polling

    The poll brings mixed news for Prime Minister David Cameron on a personal note, as he is the most likely leader to be seen as out of touch (50%), but also as statesmanlike (37%), competent (33%) and intelligent (42%).

    Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be seen as weird with 40% of people in these marginal seats describing the UKIP leader as such, while a third (32%) say the same of Ed Miliband.

    None of the leaders has managed to convince the public in the marginal constituencies that they “come across as someone like me”, with Nigel Farage chosen by 14% as representing people like them, Ed Miliband by 13%, David Cameron by 12% and Nick Clegg by 8%.

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1216/comres-battlebus-june-marginal-seats-poll.htm
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    CarlottaVance said:

    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html

    However when you look at his weasely eyes whilst saying it you can easily tell he is lying through his teeth. His days are numbered.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    Pulpstar said:

    These are the Conservative seats in the marginal Comres poll that are not in the Ashcroft polls...

    018 Carlisle 853 2.02 1.31 Labour
    019 Stroud 1299 2.24 1.66 Labour
    020 Weaver Vale 991 2.25 1.47 Labour
    021 Lincoln 1058 2.31 1.44 Labour
    023 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 1149 2.62 1.58 Labour
    024 Dewsbury 1526 2.83 1.93 Labour
    025 Warrington South 1553 2.83 1.96 Labour
    026 Bedford 1353 3.00 1.97 Labour
    027 Brighton Kemptown 1328 3.11 2.01 Labour
    028 Pudsey 1659 3.38 2.40 Labour
    029 Corby 1895 3.49 2.43 Labour
    031 Brentford & Isleworth 1958 3.64 2.34 Labour
    032 Hove 1868 3.75 2.60 Labour

    The Conservatives only had a 0.5% swing against them in Pudsey as can be seen by the Fabian's handy chart:

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/


    JackW has it TCTC in his "Ones to watch also"

    the combination of these factors leads me to think that Pudsey is worth a fiver on the Conservatives @ 9-4.


    DYOR

    That Fabian article is very interesting. LAB unsurprisingly doing much better in LAB/LD marginals. If the Tories hold Pudsey I will be surprised but would make the most GE seats a very close call.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    edited June 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    OK,I'm back with #TeamBlue after ComRes.

    Coulson's (probably) off to prison today isn't he?

    Nope, well not today, later on this week.

    There's going to be a lot of Barristers speaking today, trying to get mitigation for those who pleaded guilty at the start.

    So that will take a lot of time before Hizonner gives sentence.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    CarlottaVance said:

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile .... one of the final planks of the Coalitions Economics Plan A is likely to fall into place and may also have significant consequences for the Scottish referendum debate and a huge boost to the Scottish economy as oil revenue dips :

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/scotland/10933974/Britain-asks-America-to-end-ban-on-haggis.html

    Eck looks pleased:

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sparks-clash-david-3783632

    Curious body language......
    Perfectly natural , he does not like the rat but has to shake hands with him , does not mean he has to lie like a unionist and kid on he is enjoying it.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike I take it there is an error in that the 2% lead is a LAB one not CON.

    Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.

    No, if there were a 2.5% swing that would leave the Tories 2 points ahead since they led by 36-29 in the GE. The poll shows Tories doing better in marginals than nationally, while Ashcroft showed them doing worse. The previous pre-Ashcroft Comres poll showed them doing better still, mind you, so, uh, either the gap is getting larger or it's getting smaller :-).

    Confusing, isn't it? But it's three data points with different methodlogy and Ashcroft's sample size is bigger and possibly more balanced by each constituency make-up (not sure if ComRes went into that much detail). My working assumption is that the true picture is that the swing in the marginals is comparable to the national swing.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html

    However when you look at his weasely eyes whilst saying it you can easily tell he is lying through his teeth. His days are numbered.
    Eck's day are numbered? When do you think he'll be gone? September the 19th?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    OK,I'm back with #TeamBlue after ComRes.

    Coulson's (probably) off to prison today isn't he?

    Nope, well not today, later on this week.

    There's going to be a lot of Barristers speaking today, trying to get mitigation for those who pleaded guilty at the start.

    So that will take a lot of time before Hizonner gives sentence.
    Thanks TSE.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike I take it there is an error in that the 2% lead is a LAB one not CON.

    Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.

    Nope, it is a 2% Tory lead.

    In these seats in the general election, the Tories and Lab were tied, since then, there's been a 2.5% swing from Con to Lab.

    Nationally, the Tories lead by over 6% in 2010, so a 2% Tory lead is accurate considering the swing is 2.5%.
    Wow well that is a turn up do you have the national % on the off chance that I could use UKPR to prove that Ed is crap is still PM even based on this crossover poll !!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html

    However when you look at his weasely eyes whilst saying it you can easily tell he is lying through his teeth. His days are numbered.
    Eck's day are numbered? When do you think he'll be gone? September the 19th?
    LOL, nice try, Alex will be on top of the world on the 19th, you will enjoy a big party.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From this polling

    The poll brings mixed news for Prime Minister David Cameron on a personal note, as he is the most likely leader to be seen as out of touch (50%), but also as statesmanlike (37%), competent (33%) and intelligent (42%).

    Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be seen as weird with 40% of people in these marginal seats describing the UKIP leader as such, while a third (32%) say the same of Ed Miliband.

    None of the leaders has managed to convince the public in the marginal constituencies that they “come across as someone like me”, with Nigel Farage chosen by 14% as representing people like them, Ed Miliband by 13%, David Cameron by 12% and Nick Clegg by 8%.

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1216/comres-battlebus-june-marginal-seats-poll.htm

    It's curious that Mr Farage is seen as both the least 'out of touch with ordinary people' (17%) and the most 'weird' (40%).

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike I take it there is an error in that the 2% lead is a LAB one not CON.

    Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.

    Nope, it is a 2% Tory lead.

    In these seats in the general election, the Tories and Lab were tied, since then, there's been a 2.5% swing from Con to Lab.

    Nationally, the Tories lead by over 6% in 2010, so a 2% Tory lead is accurate considering the swing is 2.5%.
    Wow well that is a turn up do you have the national % on the off chance that I could use UKPR to prove that Ed is crap is still PM even based on this crossover poll !!!
    My rough back of a paper guesstimate is

    Con 30, Lab 28, LD 13, UKIP 17.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    See the Poll also has Farage beating Ed is crap




    On the most weird surely they should have had a who is most crap poll booooooo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    malcolmg said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html

    However when you look at his weasely eyes whilst saying it you can easily tell he is lying through his teeth. His days are numbered.
    Eck's day are numbered? When do you think he'll be gone? September the 19th?
    LOL, nice try, Alex will be on top of the world on the 19th, you will enjoy a big party.
    I'm in Edinburgh between the 17th and 21st of September, whatever the result, I'm expecting a party.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,968
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    malcolmg said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Danny to Eck:

    'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."

    "I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html

    However when you look at his weasely eyes whilst saying it you can easily tell he is lying through his teeth. His days are numbered.
    Eck's day are numbered? When do you think he'll be gone? September the 19th?
    LOL, nice try, Alex will be on top of the world on the 19th, you will enjoy a big party.
    I'm in Edinburgh between the 17th and 21st of September, whatever the result, I'm expecting a party.
    Should be buzzing and when YES confirmed it will go wild
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From this polling

    The poll brings mixed news for Prime Minister David Cameron on a personal note, as he is the most likely leader to be seen as out of touch (50%), but also as statesmanlike (37%), competent (33%) and intelligent (42%).

    Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be seen as weird with 40% of people in these marginal seats describing the UKIP leader as such, while a third (32%) say the same of Ed Miliband.

    None of the leaders has managed to convince the public in the marginal constituencies that they “come across as someone like me”, with Nigel Farage chosen by 14% as representing people like them, Ed Miliband by 13%, David Cameron by 12% and Nick Clegg by 8%.

    http://comres.co.uk/poll/1216/comres-battlebus-june-marginal-seats-poll.htm

    It's curious that Mr Farage is seen as both the least 'out of touch with ordinary people' (17%) and the most 'weird' (40%).

    It isn't at all curious. It just means that ordinary people know they're weird. That is how you tell then apart from Peebies.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    So this means we should be getting the ComRes phone poll tonight.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited June 2014
    Today's polls from Populus, ComRes and The Good Lord should be fully reflective of COOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUULLLLLLSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNN and Juncker.

    We'll get a full idea of how much damage has been done to The Blues's.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    Thanks TSE fed my Ed is crap is PM OCD!!!

    ComRes marginals poll LAB 322 CON 253 LD 45 Other 30 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER.

    Just for Big John and his free owl.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    OK, have checked the ComRes site - it's a poll of 1000 people over the 40 seats during June 18-25, and includes Lab-Con marginals as well as Con-Lab marginals. The poll is demographically balanced over the 40 seats as a whole, but no attempt has been made to balance the 25 people per seat and the constituency figures are not shown (Pulpstar's list below is from Baston's local lection results, I think). Qualitatively, then, Ashcroft (which IIRC had 500 per seat and did balance for each one) is clearly a long way ahead.

    A point of interest is that 65% say they'll vote for the party whose policies they like best. Only 14% say they'll vote for the one with the best leader and 8% for the local candidate who they think would be the best local MP (but that's 22% for LibDem voters - and this is not even in LibDem marginals). Only 5% state that they'll vote to stop another party, though this is largest among Labour voters (9%), presumably reflecting tactical Red Liberals. Farage is seen as a the "weirdest" leader, Cameron as the most out of touch, but also the most statesmanlike
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    bigjohnowls said:

    Thanks TSE fed my Ed is crap is PM OCD!!!

    ComRes marginals poll LAB 322 CON 253 LD 45 Other 30 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go

    You'd be better off using electoral calculus, that's generally more accurate in seat predictors.

    It's what Mike uses (and has used above)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,981
    GIN1138 said:

    Today's polls from Populus and The Good Lord should be fully reflective of COOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUULLLLLLSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNN and Juncker.

    We'll get a full idea of how much damage has been done to The Blues's.

    I predict no damage and Ed is crap is PM?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    More seriously, that Savile article in the Indie is jaw-dropping in parts - the comment to the young girl at Stoke Mandeville about having his way with her now, the whole 'dead bodies' stuff, the young girls rumours that 'everyone' seems to know...

    Yuck.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2014
    'Comes across as someone like me'
    Mr Cameron: current-Con 35%, 2nd current-LD 15%
    Mr Miliband: current-Lab 36%, 2nd current-LD 9%
    Mr Clegg: current-LD 42%, 2nd current-Con 9%
    Mr Farage: current-UKIP 49%, 2nd current-Con 15%

    http://comres.co.uk/polls/ComRes_Battlebus_30th_June_2014.pdf
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited June 2014
    bigjohnowls said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Today's polls from Populus and The Good Lord should be fully reflective of COOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUULLLLLLSSSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNN and Juncker.

    We'll get a full idea of how much damage has been done to The Blues's.

    I predict no damage and Ed is crap is PM?
    Well Ed will certainly be a crap PM should people be insane enough to allow him anywhere near Downing St...

    Hollande II?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Good morning, everyone.

    Long way to go to the election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    edited June 2014
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER.

    Just for Big John and his free owl.

    I know, how much you like being reminded Spurs turned down the opportunity to sign Suarez, but here's a story that's going to make you feel even sicker, and re-evaluate AVB.

    How United and Spurs both missed out on signing World Cup star James Rodriguez

    http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/how-united-and-spurs-both-missed-out-on-signing-world-cup-star-james-rodriguez-30393182.html

    Aren't you glad you signed Bobby Sol and Erik Lamela instead?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER.

    Just for Big John and his free owl.

    I know, how much you like being reminded Spurs turned down the opportunity to sign Suarez, but here's a story that's going to make you feel even sicker, and re-evaluate AVB.

    How United and Spurs both missed out on signing World Cup star James Rodriguez

    http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/how-united-and-spurs-both-missed-out-on-signing-world-cup-star-james-rodriguez-30393182.html

    Aren't you glad you signed Bobby Sol and Erik Lamela instead?
    Much appreciated.... erm...

    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CROSSOVER
    CHRISSYWADDLE
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    When was the last time Henry Manson wrote a piece or posted a comment?

    We hear NPxMPs optimistic if not quite it's in the bag postings but would be interested to hear from the 'make it stop' side of Labour PB pundits too.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sorry folks look at the data tables for the Comres poll and you will see that it is a complete waste of time and the results are not worth considering .
    Firstly it is an Online poll with the pro UKIP bias that Comres has in all their online polls compared to their telephone polls .
    Secondly look at the weightings . As we know the sample should have roughly equal Con and Labour voters to reflect the closeness of the results in 2010 The actual sample before weighting had 418 Conservative 2010 voters to just 214 Labour 2010 voters , Such a totally unrepresentative initial sample needed such heavy weighting that the results will be dominated by the weighting used rather than any actual changes in VI .
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Is this Mikes attempt to cheer up PB Tories on a Monday morning ?

    The polling consistently shows a Labour lead of about 4% across the country and slightly more in marginals.

    Unless the Tories get most of their votes back from UKIP, they will do badly in 2015, losing 50+ seats and Labour will be in with a chance of a majority.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2014
    I also realise I've neglected you with my trading position news on the annuity insurers post-Budget hammering... probably that's cos I'm sitting nearly £2k down again...

    It's only money!

    Tory's winning most seats coming in next year would help relieve that pain. Or alternatively Yvette hurrying up with her campaign to replace Ed as LoftO instead which could happen quicker I'm sure we all agree?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    hucks67 said:

    Is this Mikes attempt to cheer up PB Tories on a Monday morning ?

    The polling consistently shows a Labour lead of about 4% across the country and slightly more in marginals.

    Unless the Tories get most of their votes back from UKIP, they will do badly in 2015, losing 50+ seats and Labour will be in with a chance of a majority.

    The Lord Ashcroft polling in the Con/Lab marginals showed Labour doing the same in the marginals as it was doing nationwide.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I also realise I've neglected you with my trading position news on the annuity insurers post-Budget hammering... probably that's cos I'm sitting nearly £2k down again...

    It's only money!

    Tory's winning most seats coming in next year would help relieve that pain. Or alternatively Yvette hurrying up with her campaign to replace Ed as LoftO instead which could happen quicker I'm sure we all agree?

    Sweet Jesus how much are you on CON most seats for ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I also realise I've neglected you with my trading position news on the annuity insurers post-Budget hammering... probably that's cos I'm sitting nearly £2k down again...

    It's only money!

    Tory's winning most seats coming in next year would help relieve that pain. Or alternatively Yvette hurrying up with her campaign to replace Ed as LoftO instead which could happen quicker I'm sure we all agree?

    Put your money on Spurs finishing in the top 4 next season. Is what I've done.

    That and Rickie Lambert and Danny S to be top goalscorers in the league.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    Oscar Pistorius has no mental disorder that would have affected his judgment.
    Looks like the prosecution has managed to head off one possibility for the final verdict to be overturned

    bbc breaking
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Time for some work, but may I be the first to confirm that Andy Murray is now on the cusp, if not already, a National Treasure.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/28070308
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Smarmeron said:

    Oscar Pistorius has no mental disorder that would have affected his judgment.
    Looks like the prosecution has managed to head off one possibility for the final verdict to be overturned

    bbc breaking

    As guilty as OJ.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. Scrapheap, Henman got 92.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited June 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Congrats to Costa Rica

    Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html

    That is a quite amazing interview isn't it?

    It's all there. Even the dead bodies fetish is hinted at.

    What a ghastly person he was.

    Ugh.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I also realise I've neglected you with my trading position news on the annuity insurers post-Budget hammering... probably that's cos I'm sitting nearly £2k down again...

    It's only money!

    Tory's winning most seats coming in next year would help relieve that pain. Or alternatively Yvette hurrying up with her campaign to replace Ed as LoftO instead which could happen quicker I'm sure we all agree?

    Put your money on Spurs finishing in the top 4 next season. Is what I've done.

    That and Rickie Lambert and Danny S to be top goalscorers in the league.
    Spurs will be buggered by another pointless Europa League run. Probably 6th again.
    Top scorer will be Ross McCormack when someone has the good sense to give Leeds 20 million for him
    Ok, maybe not. Spurs are garbage though, I have a surfeit of Spurs fans in my pub, I am obliged to belittle them as often as possible to make up for the boorishness of Sunday afternoons :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. Scrapheap/Mr. Gin, the Savile stuff is less surprising than it might be.

    I have vague memories of his rumoured proclivities being known about even in the primary school playground.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    When was the last time Henry Manson wrote a piece or posted a comment?

    We hear NPxMPs optimistic if not quite it's in the bag postings but would be interested to hear from the 'make it stop' side of Labour PB pundits too.

    I am hoping that Henry will make contributions again as we get closer to GE15

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Did we ever get the results of RCS's monte carlo simulation?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarkSenior said:

    Secondly look at the weightings . As we know the sample should have roughly equal Con and Labour voters to reflect the closeness of the results in 2010 The actual sample before weighting had 418 Conservative 2010 voters to just 214 Labour 2010 voters , Such a totally unrepresentative initial sample needed such heavy weighting that the results will be dominated by the weighting used rather than any actual changes in VI .

    As I've pointed out before, this sort of thing is a major problem for all the polls at the moment. The initial sample is far from being representative.

    In the last Ashcroft National Poll 346 C1 and C2 respondents were weighted up to 495. In the latest Guardian ICM poll 348 C1 and C2 respondents were weighted up to 501. A bit under 70% of their quota of C1 and C2 respondents.

    However, this isn't a new problem. The 2010 General Election prediction poll by ICM for the Guardian only had 75% of its quota of C1 and C2 respondents, and it managed okay. Perhaps this is a growing problem - a randomly chosen Guardian ICM poll from 2004 found 83% of the C1 and C2 respondents it was looking for.
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