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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Midnight polling round-up with more positive news for the L
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Midnight polling round-up with more positive news for the LDs on students and more from the marginals
In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats.
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I thought that they had a lower propensity to vote, which would suggest that the Lib Dem polling is overstating their support on the day.
On the flip side, one would assume that in May students are at uni, so would be concentrated in a relatively small number of seats?
Back in 2010, 48% of students voted Lib Dem.
48% of students voted for the Lib Dems on Election Day, compared to 22% voting for each of the other two main parties. (Fieldwork dates: 7 -10 May 2010)
http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/2010/12/05/liberal-democrats-dumped-by-the-student-electorate-after-a-whirlwind-romance/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
Lab 36%
Con 31%
UKIP 15%
LD 8%
It seems like bad news for the lib Dems doesn't it.
Astonishing 1990 interview with Jimmy Saville released by the Independent tomorrow takes on a whole new meaning now
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/history/it-was-a-relief-when-i-got-the-knighthoodbecause-it-gotme-off-the-hook-an-exclusive-interview-with-jimmy-savile-from-1990-has-a-new-meaning-9571057.html
Do we have a view on why the Ashcroft and ComRes marginal polls are markedly different? Can't think of a particular methodological reason, but as Mike implies the ComRes poll would produce moderate Labour gains and something rather like a tie overall, whereas Ashcroft would have Labour romping home. Ashcroft polled fewer, tighter marginals IIRC.
Is it me or is this the scariest/most like a Hollywood movie terrorist movement yet?
It's like a bond film but it's real
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/24/the-ashcroft-polling-is-out-and-its-great-for-ed/
Tikrit may be tricky for the Iraqi Baghdad Shia Gov't to retake, all the Sunni tribes in the north are going to rally round "TheSunni Islamic State"
Takes a real man to say it like it is (was)
Proves Ed is crap !
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/29/world/meast/syria-reported-crucifixions/
Islamist militant group Isis has said it is establishing a caliphate, or Islamic state, on the territories it controls in Iraq and Syria.
It also proclaimed the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph and "leader for Muslims everywhere".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28082962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
This marginals poll is bad for LAB and gives hope to CON
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/06/ISIS envisioned boundaries_1.jpg
https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
'Voters can only conclude from this explicit statement of fundamental fiscal divergence that you now accept that a currency union is not going to happen. You are right to do so."
"I hope you will very soon explain to the Scottish people what your alternative monetary proposal is, so people can vote in possession of the full facts."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10934527/Alex-Salmonds-borrowing-plans-prove-currency-union-wont-happen.html
So I think they will have one, but whether they know what it is is another matter. My NI No has been imprinted in my mind since I got it , in the same way as anyone who has been in the army never forgets their army number.
you live in the United Kingdom
your parents or guardians are getting Child Benefit for you
http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/ni/intro/number.htm
So that will now be quite a few children of well off parents not getting NI numbers.......
In my day you had to go to the employment exchange in person and apply - which I only did as I had a summer job......otherwise it wouldn't have happened until I started post-Uni full time work.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/uk/scotland/10933974/Britain-asks-America-to-end-ban-on-haggis.html
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sparks-clash-david-3783632
Curious body language......
If so we just need to compare to Ashcroft and potentially value can be identified in the safest Conservative seat in the Comres compared to the Ashcroft seats.
That said this poll came out before just before Ashcroft iirc, and there is a slight movement to Labour since then so its not terrible.
Ashcroft's large marginal polling work and the overall picture look like better work to bet on quite frankly.
OTOH she was automatically enrolled onto the electoral register as she has a vote in the referendum. I don't know if the referendum made any difference but it really did seem to happen without any activity on our part. I think she was already on the register but not eligible to vote until the age was changed. If we filled in any form about that it was some years ago.
Haggis at heart of Holyrood and Westminster trade row
Coalition Environment Secretary Owen Paterson will today hold talks with his opposite number in the US Government in a bid to overturn a 40-year ban on the import of haggis.
However, Mr Paterson was accused by Scotland's Rural Affairs Secretary, Richard Lochhead, of taking up the issue only in response to September's independence referendum.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/haggis-at-heart-of-holyrood-and-westminster-trade-row.24621070
AFAIK , not having a Nat Ins No is no reason to withhold payment of wages lawfully earned. The Employer must have done the relevant checks to ensure the right to work otherwise you daughter would have been barred from working.
Wee, sleeket, cowran, tim'rous beastie.
018 Carlisle 853 2.02 1.31 Labour
019 Stroud 1299 2.24 1.66 Labour
020 Weaver Vale 991 2.25 1.47 Labour
021 Lincoln 1058 2.31 1.44 Labour
023 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 1149 2.62 1.58 Labour
024 Dewsbury 1526 2.83 1.93 Labour
025 Warrington South 1553 2.83 1.96 Labour
026 Bedford 1353 3.00 1.97 Labour
027 Brighton Kemptown 1328 3.11 2.01 Labour
028 Pudsey 1659 3.38 2.40 Labour
029 Corby 1895 3.49 2.43 Labour
031 Brentford & Isleworth 1958 3.64 2.34 Labour
032 Hove 1868 3.75 2.60 Labour
The Conservatives only had a 0.5% swing against them in Pudsey as can be seen by the Fabian's handy chart:
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
JackW has it TCTC in his "Ones to watch also"
the combination of these factors leads me to think that Pudsey is worth a fiver on the Conservatives @ 9-4.
DYOR
They just need to get off their arses and ensure that they are registered.
That's a small price to pay for the security of the ballot.
Quick change it before we get a Crossover Chorus.
Coulson's (probably) off to prison today isn't he?
In these seats in the general election, the Tories and Lab were tied, since then, there's been a 2.5% swing from Con to Lab.
Nationally, the Tories lead by over 6% in 2010, so a 2% Tory lead is accurate considering the swing is 2.5%.
The poll brings mixed news for Prime Minister David Cameron on a personal note, as he is the most likely leader to be seen as out of touch (50%), but also as statesmanlike (37%), competent (33%) and intelligent (42%).
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be seen as weird with 40% of people in these marginal seats describing the UKIP leader as such, while a third (32%) say the same of Ed Miliband.
None of the leaders has managed to convince the public in the marginal constituencies that they “come across as someone like me”, with Nigel Farage chosen by 14% as representing people like them, Ed Miliband by 13%, David Cameron by 12% and Nick Clegg by 8%.
http://comres.co.uk/poll/1216/comres-battlebus-june-marginal-seats-poll.htm
There's going to be a lot of Barristers speaking today, trying to get mitigation for those who pleaded guilty at the start.
So that will take a lot of time before Hizonner gives sentence.
Confusing, isn't it? But it's three data points with different methodlogy and Ashcroft's sample size is bigger and possibly more balanced by each constituency make-up (not sure if ComRes went into that much detail). My working assumption is that the true picture is that the swing in the marginals is comparable to the national swing.
Con 30, Lab 28, LD 13, UKIP 17.
On the most weird surely they should have had a who is most crap poll booooooo
We'll get a full idea of how much damage has been done to The Blues's.
ComRes marginals poll LAB 322 CON 253 LD 45 Other 30 (ukpr)
Ed is crap is PM 10.25 months to go
CROSSOVER
CROSSOVER
CROSSOVER.
Just for Big John and his free owl.
A point of interest is that 65% say they'll vote for the party whose policies they like best. Only 14% say they'll vote for the one with the best leader and 8% for the local candidate who they think would be the best local MP (but that's 22% for LibDem voters - and this is not even in LibDem marginals). Only 5% state that they'll vote to stop another party, though this is largest among Labour voters (9%), presumably reflecting tactical Red Liberals. Farage is seen as a the "weirdest" leader, Cameron as the most out of touch, but also the most statesmanlike
It's what Mike uses (and has used above)
Yuck.
Mr Cameron: current-Con 35%, 2nd current-LD 15%
Mr Miliband: current-Lab 36%, 2nd current-LD 9%
Mr Clegg: current-LD 42%, 2nd current-Con 9%
Mr Farage: current-UKIP 49%, 2nd current-Con 15%
http://comres.co.uk/polls/ComRes_Battlebus_30th_June_2014.pdf
Hollande II?
Long way to go to the election.
How United and Spurs both missed out on signing World Cup star James Rodriguez
http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/how-united-and-spurs-both-missed-out-on-signing-world-cup-star-james-rodriguez-30393182.html
Aren't you glad you signed Bobby Sol and Erik Lamela instead?
CROSSOVER
CROSSOVER
CROSSOVER
CHRISSYWADDLE
We hear NPxMPs optimistic if not quite it's in the bag postings but would be interested to hear from the 'make it stop' side of Labour PB pundits too.
Firstly it is an Online poll with the pro UKIP bias that Comres has in all their online polls compared to their telephone polls .
Secondly look at the weightings . As we know the sample should have roughly equal Con and Labour voters to reflect the closeness of the results in 2010 The actual sample before weighting had 418 Conservative 2010 voters to just 214 Labour 2010 voters , Such a totally unrepresentative initial sample needed such heavy weighting that the results will be dominated by the weighting used rather than any actual changes in VI .
The polling consistently shows a Labour lead of about 4% across the country and slightly more in marginals.
Unless the Tories get most of their votes back from UKIP, they will do badly in 2015, losing 50+ seats and Labour will be in with a chance of a majority.
It's only money!
Tory's winning most seats coming in next year would help relieve that pain. Or alternatively Yvette hurrying up with her campaign to replace Ed as LoftO instead which could happen quicker I'm sure we all agree?
That and Rickie Lambert and Danny S to be top goalscorers in the league.
Looks like the prosecution has managed to head off one possibility for the final verdict to be overturned
bbc breaking
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/28070308
It's all there. Even the dead bodies fetish is hinted at.
What a ghastly person he was.
Ugh.
Top scorer will be Ross McCormack when someone has the good sense to give Leeds 20 million for him
Ok, maybe not. Spurs are garbage though, I have a surfeit of Spurs fans in my pub, I am obliged to belittle them as often as possible to make up for the boorishness of Sunday afternoons :-)
I have vague memories of his rumoured proclivities being known about even in the primary school playground.
In the last Ashcroft National Poll 346 C1 and C2 respondents were weighted up to 495. In the latest Guardian ICM poll 348 C1 and C2 respondents were weighted up to 501. A bit under 70% of their quota of C1 and C2 respondents.
However, this isn't a new problem. The 2010 General Election prediction poll by ICM for the Guardian only had 75% of its quota of C1 and C2 respondents, and it managed okay. Perhaps this is a growing problem - a randomly chosen Guardian ICM poll from 2004 found 83% of the C1 and C2 respondents it was looking for.